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The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) was unexpectedly disrupted for only the second time in the historical record during the 2019/2020 boreal winter. As the dominant mode of atmospheric variability in the tropical stratosphere and a significant source of seasonal predictability globally, understanding the drivers behind this unusual behaviour is very important. Here, novel data from Aeolus, the first Doppler wind lidar (DWL) in space, are used to observe the 2019/2020 QBO disruption. Aeolus is the first satellite able to observe winds at high resolution on a global scale, and it is therefore a uniquely capable platform for studying the evolution of the disruption and the broader circulation changes triggered by it. This study therefore contains the first direct wind observations of the QBO from space, and it exploits measurements from a special Aeolus scanning mode, implemented to observe this disruption as it happened. Aeolus observes easterly winds of up to 20 m s−1 in the core of the disruption jet during July 2020. By co-locating with radiosonde measurements from Singapore and the ERA5 reanalysis, comparisons of the observed wind structures in the tropical stratosphere are produced, showing differences in equatorial wave activity during the disruption period. Local zonal wind biases are found in both Aeolus and ERA5 around the tropopause, and the average Aeolus-ERA5 Rayleigh horizontal line-of-sight random error is found to be 7.58 m s−1. The onset of the QBO disruption easterly jet occurs 5 d earlier in Aeolus observations compared with the reanalysis. This discrepancy is linked to Kelvin wave variances that are 3 to 6 m2 s−2 higher in Aeolus compared with ERA5, centred on regions of maximum vertical wind shear in the tropical tropopause layer that are up to twice as sharp. The enhanced lower-stratospheric westerly winds which are known to help disrupt the QBO, perhaps with increasing frequency as the climate changes, are also stronger in Aeolus observations, with important implications for the future predictability of such disruptions. An investigation into differences in the equivalent depth of the most dominant Kelvin waves suggests that slower, shorter-vertical-wavelength waves break more readily in Aeolus observations compared with the reanalysis. This analysis therefore highlights how Aeolus and future DWL satellites can deepen our understanding of the QBO, its disruptions and the tropical upper-troposphere lower-stratosphere region more generally.

Current climate models have difficulty representing realistic wave–mean flow interactions, partly because the contribution from waves with fine vertical scales is poorly known. There are few direct observations of these waves, and most models have difficulty resolving them. This observational challenge cannot be addressed by satellite or sparse ground-based methods. The Strateole-2 long-duration stratospheric superpressure balloons that float with the horizontal wind on constant-density surfaces provide a unique platform for wave observations across a broad range of spatial and temporal scales. For the first time, balloon-borne Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) radio occultation (RO) is used to provide high-vertical-resolution equatorial wave observations. By tracking navigation signal refractive delays from GPS satellites near the horizon, 40–50 temperature profiles were retrieved daily, from balloon flight altitude (∼20 km) down to 6–8 km altitude, forming an orthogonal pattern of observations over a broad area (±400–500 km) surrounding the flight track. The refractivity profiles show an excellent agreement of better than 0.2 % with co-located radiosonde, spaceborne COSMIC-2 RO, and reanalysis products. The 200–500 m vertical resolution and the spatial and temporal continuity of sampling make it possible to extract properties of Kelvin waves and gravity waves with vertical wavelengths as short as 2–3 km. The results illustrate the difference in the Kelvin wave period (20 vs. 16 d) in the Lagrangian versus ground-fixed reference and as much as a 20 % difference in amplitude compared to COSMIC-2, both of which impact estimates of momentum flux. A small dataset from the extra Galileo, GLONASS, and BeiDou constellations demonstrates the feasibility of nearly doubling the sampling density in planned follow-on campaigns when data with full equatorial coverage will contribute to a better estimate of wave forcing on the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and improved QBO representation in models.

Atmospheric gravity waves play a key role in the transfer of energy and momentum between layers of the Earth's atmosphere. However, nearly all general circulation models (GCMs) seriously under-represent the momentum fluxes of gravity waves at latitudes near 60∘ S, which can lead to significant biases. A prominent example of this is the “cold pole problem”, where modelled winter stratospheres are unrealistically cold. There is thus a need for large-scale measurements of gravity wave fluxes near 60∘ S, and indeed globally, to test and constrain GCMs. Such measurements are notoriously difficult, because they require 3-D observations of wave properties if the fluxes are to be estimated without using significant limiting assumptions. Here we use 3-D satellite measurements of stratospheric gravity waves from NASA's Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) Aqua instrument. We present the first extended application of a 3-D Stockwell transform (3DST) method to determine localised gravity wave amplitudes, wavelengths and directions of propagation around the entire region of the Southern Ocean near 60∘ S during austral winter 2010. We first validate our method using a synthetic wavefield and two case studies of real gravity waves over the southern Andes and the island of South Georgia. A new technique to overcome wave amplitude attenuation problems in previous methods is also presented. We then characterise large-scale gravity wave occurrence frequencies, directional momentum fluxes and short-timescale intermittency over the entire Southern Ocean. Our results show that highest wave occurrence frequencies, amplitudes and momentum fluxes are observed in the stratosphere over the mountains of the southern Andes and Antarctic Peninsula. However, we find that around 60 %–80 % of total zonal-mean momentum flux is located over the open Southern Ocean during June–August, where a large “belt” of increased wave occurrence frequencies, amplitudes and fluxes is observed. Our results also suggest significant short-timescale variability of fluxes from both orographic and non-orographic sources in the region. A particularly striking result is a widespread convergence of gravity wave momentum fluxes towards latitudes around 60∘ S from the north and south. We propose that this convergence, which is observed at nearly all longitudes during winter, could account for a significant part of the under-represented flux in GCMs at these latitudes.

Gravity waves (GWs) transport momentum and energy in the atmosphere, exerting a profound influence on the global circulation. Accurately measuring them is thus vital both for understanding the atmosphere and for developing the next generation of weather forecasting and climate prediction models. However, it has proven very difficult to measure the full set of GW parameters from satellite measurements, which are the only suitable observations with global coverage. This is particularly critical at latitudes close to 60° S, where climate models significantly under-represent wave momentum fluxes. Here, we present a novel fully 3-D method for detecting and characterising GWs in the stratosphere. This method is based around a 3-D Stockwell transform, and can be applied retrospectively to existing observed data. This is the first scientific use of this spectral analysis technique. We apply our method to high-resolution 3-D atmospheric temperature data from AIRS/Aqua over the altitude range 20–60 km. Our method allows us to determine a wide range of parameters for each wave detected. These include amplitude, propagation direction, horizontal/vertical wavelength, height/direction-resolved momentum fluxes (MFs), and phase and group velocity vectors. The latter three have not previously been measured from an individual satellite instrument. We demonstrate this method over the region around the Southern Andes and Antarctic Peninsula, the largest known sources of GW MFs near the 60° S belt. Our analyses reveal the presence of strongly intermittent highly directionally focused GWs with very high momentum fluxes (∼ 80–100 mPa or more at 30 km altitude). These waves are closely associated with the mountains rather than the open ocean of the Drake Passage. Measured fluxes are directed orthogonal to both mountain ranges, consistent with an orographic source mechanism, and are largest in winter. Further, our measurements of wave group velocity vectors show clear observational evidence that these waves are strongly focused into the polar night wind jet, and thus may contribute significantly to the missing momentum at these latitudes. These results demonstrate the capabilities of our new method, which provides a powerful tool for delivering the observations required for the next generation of weather and climate models.

Atmospheric gravity waves yield substantial small-scale temperature fluctuations that can trigger the formation of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs). This paper introduces a new satellite record of gravity wave activity in the polar lower stratosphere to investigate this process. The record is comprised of observations of the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) aboard NASA's Aqua satellite from January 2003 to December 2012. Gravity wave activity is measured in terms of detrended and noise-corrected 15 µm brightness temperature variances, which are calculated from AIRS channels that are the most sensitive to temperature fluctuations at about 17–32 km of altitude. The analysis of temporal patterns in the data set revealed a strong seasonal cycle in wave activity with wintertime maxima at mid- and high latitudes. The analysis of spatial patterns indicated that orography as well as jet and storm sources are the main causes of the observed waves. Wave activity is closely correlated with 30 hPa zonal winds, which is attributed to the AIRS observational filter. We used the new data set to evaluate explicitly resolved temperature fluctuations due to gravity waves in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational analysis. It was found that the analysis reproduces orographic and non-orographic wave patterns in the right places, but that wave amplitudes are typically underestimated by a factor of 2–3. Furthermore, in a first survey of joint AIRS and Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) satellite observations, nearly 50 gravity-wave-induced PSC formation events were identified. The survey shows that the new AIRS data set can help to better identify such events and more generally highlights the importance of the process for polar ozone chemistry.

Stratospheric gravity waves from small-scale orographic sources are currently not well-represented in general circulation models. This may be a reason why many simulations have difficulty reproducing the dynamical behavior of the Southern Hemisphere polar vortex in a realistic manner. Here we discuss a 12-year record (2003–2014) of stratospheric gravity wave activity at Southern Hemisphere orographic hotspots as observed by the Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS) aboard the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Aqua satellite. We introduce a simple and effective approach, referred to as the “two-box method”, to detect gravity wave activity from infrared nadir sounder measurements and to discriminate between gravity waves from orographic and other sources. From austral mid-fall to mid-spring (April–October) the contributions of orographic sources to the observed gravity wave occurrence frequencies were found to be largest for the Andes (90 %), followed by the Antarctic Peninsula (76 %), Kerguelen Islands (73 %), Tasmania (70 %), New Zealand (67 %), Heard Island (60 %), and other hotspots (24–54 %). Mountain wave activity was found to be closely correlated with peak terrain altitudes, and with zonal winds in the lower troposphere and mid-stratosphere. We propose a simple model to predict the occurrence of mountain wave events in the AIRS observations using zonal wind thresholds at 3 and 750 hPa. The model has significant predictive skill for hotspots where gravity wave activity is primarily due to orographic sources. It typically reproduces seasonal variations of the mountain wave occurrence frequencies at the Antarctic Peninsula and Kerguelen Islands from near zero to over 60 % with mean absolute errors of 4–5 percentage points. The prediction model can be used to disentangle upper level wind effects on observed occurrence frequencies from low-level source and other influences. The data and methods presented here can help to identify interesting case studies in the vast amount of AIRS data, which could then be further explored to study the specific characteristics of stratospheric gravity waves from orographic sources and to support model validation.

Recent high-altitude aircraft measurements with in situ imaging instruments indicated the presence of relatively large (≃100 μm length), thin (aspect ratios of ≃6:1 or larger) hexagonal plate ice crystals near the tropical tropopause in very low concentrations (−1). These crystals were not produced by deep convection or aggregation. We use simple growth-sedimentation calculations as well as detailed cloud simulations to evaluate the conditions required to grow the large crystals. Uncertainties in crystal aspect ratio leave a range of possibilities, which could be constrained by knowledge of the water vapor concentration in the air where the crystal growth occurred. Unfortunately, water vapor measurements made in the cloud formation region near the tropopause with different instruments ranged from 3 ppmv). On the other hand, if the crystal aspect ratios are quite a bit larger (≃10:1), then H2O concentrations toward the low end of the measurement range (≃2–2.5 ppmv) would suffice to grow the large crystals. Gravity-wave driven temperature and vertical wind perturbations only slightly modify the H2O concentrations needed to grow the crystals. We find that it would not be possible to grow the large crystals with water concentrations less than 2 ppmv, even with assumptions of a very high aspect ratio of 15 and steady upward motion of 2 cm s−1 to loft the crystals in the tropopause region. These calculations would seem to imply that the measurements indicating water vapor concentrations less than 2 ppmv are implausible, but we cannot rule out the possibility that higher humidity prevailed upstream of the aircraft measurements and the air was dehydrated by the cloud formation. Simulations of the cloud formation with a detailed model indicate that homogeneous freezing should generate ice concentrations larger than the observed concencentrations (20 L−1), and even concentrations as low as 20 L−1 should have depleted the vapor in excess of saturation and prevented growth of large crystals. It seems likely that the large crystals resulted from ice nucleation on effective heterogeneous nuclei at low ice supersaturations. Improvements in our understanding of detailed cloud microphysical processes require resolution of the water vapor measurement discrepancies in these very cold, dry regions of the atmosphere.

Lower stratospheric wind and temperature measurements made from NASA's high-altitude ER-2 research aircraft during the CRYSTAL-FACE campaign in July 2002 were analyzed to retrieve information on small scale gravity waves (GWs) at the aircraft's flight level (typically ~20 km altitude). For a given flight segment, the S-transform (a Gaussian wavelet transform) was used to search for and identify small horizontal scale GW events, and to estimate their apparent horizontal wavelengths. The horizontal propagation directions of the events were determined using the Stokes parameter method combined with the cross S-transform analysis. The vertical temperature gradient was used to determine the vertical wavelengths of the events. GW momentum fluxes were calculated from the cross S-transform. Other wave parameters such as intrinsic frequencies were calculated using the GW dispersion relation. More than 100GW events were identified. They were generally high frequency waves with vertical wavelength of ~5 km and horizontal wavelength generally shorter than 20 km. Their intrinsic propagation directions were predominantly toward the east, whereas their ground-based propagation directions were primarily toward the west. Among the events, ~20% of them had very short horizontal wavelength, very high intrinsic frequency, and relatively small momentum fluxes, and thus they were likely trapped in the lower stratosphere. Using the estimated GW parameters and the background winds and stabilities from the NCAR/NCEP reanalysis data, we were able to trace the sources of the events using a simple reverse ray-tracing. More than 70% of the events were traced back to convective sources in the troposphere, and the sources were generally located upstream of the locations of the events observed at the aircraft level. Finally, a probability density function of the reversible cooling rate due to GWs was obtained in this study, which may be useful for cirrus cloud models.

It is commonly believed that cumulus convection preferentially generates gravity waves with tropospheric vertical wavelengths approximately twice the depth of the convective heating. Individual cumulonimbus, however, act as short term transient heat sources (duration 10 to 30min). Gravity waves generated by such sources have broad frequency spectra and a wide range of vertical scales. The high-frequency components tend to have vertical wavelengths much greater than twice the depth of the heating. Such waves have large vertical group velocities, and are only observed for a short duration and at short horizontal distances from the convective source. At longer times and longer distances from the source the dominant wave components have short vertical wavelengths and much slower group velocities, and thus are more likely to be observed even though their contribution to the momentum flux in the upper stratosphere and mesosphere may be less than that of the high frequency waves. These properties of convectively generated waves are illustrated by a linear numerical model for the wave response to a specified transient heat source. The wave characteristics are documented through Fourier and Wavelet analysis, and implications for observing systems are discussed.