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Persistent multiyear cold states of the tropical Pacific Ocean drive hydroclimate anomalies worldwide, including persistent droughts in the extratropical Americas. Here, the atmosphere and ocean dynamics and thermodynamics of multiyear cold states of the tropical Pacific Ocean are investigated using European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalyses and simplified models of the ocean and atmosphere. The cold states are maintained by anomalous ocean heat flux divergence and damped by increased surface heat flux from the atmosphere to ocean. The anomalous ocean heat flux divergence is contributed to by both changes in the ocean circulation and thermal structure. The keys are an anomalously shallow thermocline that enhances cooling by upwelling and anomalous westward equatorial currents that enhance cold advection. The thermocline depth anomalies are shown to be a response to equatorial wind stress anomalies. The wind stress anomalies are shown to be a simple dynamical response to equatorial SST anomalies as mediated by precipitation anomalies. The cold states are fundamentally maintained by atmosphere-ocean coupling in the equatorial Pacific. The physical processes that maintain the cold states are well approximated by linear dynamics for ocean and atmosphere and simple thermodynamics.

This study examines coupled relationships among clouds, atmospheric circulation, and sea ice in Antarctic winter. We find that the wave-3 pattern dominates the leading covariability mode among cloud, atmospheric circulation, and sea ice. Both horizontal transport and vertical motion contribute to cloud formation, resulting in maximum cloud anomalies spatially between maximum meridional wind and pressure anomalies in the coupled system. The radiative effect of the clouds related to the wave-3 pattern can generate sea ice anomalies up to 12 cm thick in one month in the Amundsen Sea. It also strengthens the sea ice anomalies that are directly induced by low-level atmospheric circulation anomalies. In addition, the radiative forcing of the leading cloud mode in the lower troposphere is suppressed by the dynamic and thermodynamic effects of the circulation anomalies. These discoveries provide a better understanding of Antarctica’s interactive processes, and also offer physical evidence for climate model validations.

Abstarct In this model study the authors explore the possibility that the internal component of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) sea surface temperature (SST) signal is indistinguishable from the response to white noise forcing from the atmosphere and ocean. Here, complex models are compared without externally varying forcing with a one-dimensional noise-driven model for SST. General analytic expressions are obtained for both unfiltered and low-pass filtered lead–lag correlations. It is shown that this simple model reproduces many of the simulated lead–lag relationships among temperature, rate of change of temperature, and surface heat flux. It is concluded that the finding that at low frequencies the ocean loses heat to the atmosphere when the temperature is warm, which has been interpreted as showing that the ocean circulation drives the AMO, is a necessary consequence of the fact that at long periods the net heat flux (ocean plus atmosphere) is zero to a good approximation. It does not distinguish between the atmosphere and ocean as the source of the AMO and is consistent with the hypothesis that the AMO is driven by white noise heat fluxes. It is shown that some results in the literature are artifacts of low-pass filtering, which creates spurious low-frequency signals when the underlying data are white or red noise. It is concluded that in the absence of external forcing the AMO in most GCMs is consistent with being driven by white noise, primarily from the atmosphere.

In a suite of idealized experiments with the Community Atmospheric Model version 3 coupled to a slab ocean, we show that the atmospheric circulation response to CO2 increase is sensitive to extratropical cloud feedback that is potentially nonlinear. Doubling CO2 produces a poleward shift of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) midlatitude jet that is driven primarily by cloud shortwave feedback and modulated by ice albedo feedback, in agreement with earlier studies. More surprisingly, for CO2 increases smaller than ~25 %, the SH jet shifts equatorward. Nonlinearities are also apparent in the Northern Hemisphere, but with less zonal symmetry. Baroclinic instability theory and climate feedback analysis suggest that as the CO2 forcing amplitude is reduced, there is a transition from a regime in which cloud and circulation changes are largely decoupled to a regime in which they are highly coupled. In the dynamically coupled regime, there is an apparent cancellation between cloud feedback due to warming and cloud feedback due to the shifting jet, and this allows the ice albedo feedback to dominate in the high latitudes. The extent to which dynamical coupling effects exceed thermodynamic forcing effects is strongly influenced by cloud microphysics: an alternate model configuration with slightly increased cloud liquid (LIQ) produces poleward jet shifts regardless of the amplitude of CO2 forcing. Altering the cloud microphysics also produces substantial spread in the circulation response to CO2 doubling: the LIQ configuration produces a poleward SH jet shift approximately twice that produced under the default configuration. Analysis of large ensembles of the Canadian Earth System Model version 2 demonstrates that nonlinear, cloud-coupled jet shifts are also possible in comprehensive models. We still expect a poleward trend in SH jet latitude for timescales on which CO2 increases by more than ~25 %. But on shorter timescales, our results give good reason to expect significant equatorward deviations. We also discuss the implications for understanding the circulation response to small external forcings from other sources, such as the solar cycle.

It has recently been proposed, within the framework of the linear shallow-water equations, that tropical Pacific decadal variability (PDV) can be accounted for by basin modes with eigenperiods of 10 to 20 yr, amplifying a midlatitude wind forcing with an essentially white spectrum. Here the authors use a different formalism of linear equatorial wave theory. The Green’s function is computed for the wind-forced response of a linear equatorial shallow-water ocean and use the earlier results of Cane and Moore to obtain a compact, closed form expression for the motion of the equatorial thermocline, which applies to all frequencies lower than seasonal. This expression is new and allows a systematic comparison of the effect of low- and high-latitude winds on the equatorial thermocline. At very low frequencies (decadal time scales), the planetary geostrophic solution used by Cessi and Louazel is recovered, as well as the equatorial wave solution of Liu, and a formal explanation for this convergence is given. Nonetheless, this more general solution leads one to a different interpretation of the results. In contrast to the aforementioned studies, the authors find that the equatorial thermocline is inherently more sensitive to local than to remote wind forcing and that planetary Rossby modes only weakly alter the spectral characteristics of the response. Tropical winds are able to generate a strong equatorial response with periods of 10 to 20 yr, while midlatitude winds can only do so for periods longer than about 50 yr. The results suggest that ocean basin modes are an unlikely explanation of decadal fluctuations in tropical Pacific sea surface temperature.

The seasonal and interannual predictability of ENSO variability in a version of the Zebiak–Cane coupled model is examined in a perturbation experiment. Instead of assuming that the model is “perfect,” it is assumed that a set of optimal initial conditions exists for the model. These states, obtained through a nonlinear minimization of the misfit between model trajectories and the observations, initiate model forecasts that correlate well with the observations. Realistic estimates of the observational error magnitudes and covariance structures of sea surface temperatures, zonal wind stress, and thermocline depth are used to generate ensembles of perturbations around these optimal initial states, and the error growth is examined. The error growth in response to subseasonal stochastic wind forcing is presented for comparison.In general, from 1975 to 2002, the large-scale uncertainty in initial conditions leads to larger error growth than continuous stochastic forcing of the zonal wind stress fields. Forecast ensemble spread is shown to depend most on the calendar month at the end of the forecast rather than the initialization month, with the seasons of greatest spread corresponding to the seasons of greatest anomaly variance. It is also demonstrated that during years with negative (and rapidly decaying) Niño-3 SST anomalies (such as the time period following an El Niño event), there is a suppression of error growth. In years with large warm ENSO events, the ensemble spread is no larger than in moderately warm years. As a result, periods with high ENSO variance have greater potential prediction utility.In the realistic range of observational error, the ensemble spread has more sensitivity to the initial error in the thermocline depth than to the sea surface temperature or wind stress errors. The thermocline depth uncertainty is the principal reason why initial condition uncertainties are more important than wind noise for ensemble spread.

This project addressed area (1) of the FOA, “Interaction of Climate Change and Low Frequency Modes of Natural Climate Variability”. Our overarching objective is to detect, describe and understand the changes in low frequency variability between model simulations of the preindustrial climate and simulations of a doubled CO2 climate. The deliverables are a set of papers providing a dynamical characterization of interannual, decadal, and multidecadal variability in coupled models with attention to the changes in this low frequency variability between pre-industrial concentrations of greenhouse gases and a doubling of atmospheric concentrations of CO2. The principle mode of analysis, singular vector decomposition, is designed to advance our physical, mechanistic understanding. This study will include external natural variability due to solar and volcanic aerosol variations as well as variability internal to the climate system. An important byproduct is a set of analysis tools for estimating global singular vector structures from the archived output of model simulations.

Decadal variability in upper ocean temperature in the Pacific is studied by using observations and results from model experiments. Especially propagation of upper ocean thermal anomalies from the midlatitudes to the tropics is studied as a possible source for decadal equatorial thermocline variability. In the observations, propagation along the subtropical gyre of the North Pacific is clear. However, no propagation into the equatorial region is found. Model experiments with an ocean model forced with observed monthly wind and wind stress anomalies are performed to study the apparent propagation. Distinct propagation of thermal anomalies in the subtropics is found in the model, although the amplitude of the anomalies is small. The anomalies clearly propagate into the tropics, but they do not reach the equatorial region. The small response at the equator to extratropical variability consists of a change in the mean depth of the thermocline. It appears that most variability in the subtropics and tropics is generated by local wind stress anomalies. The results are discussed by using results from a linear shallow water model in which similar features are found.

A finite-difference scheme for solving the linear shallow water equations in a bounded domain is described. Its time step is not restricted by a Courant–Friedrichs–Levy (CFL) condition. The scheme, known as Israeli–Naik–Cane (INC), is the offspring of semi-Lagrangian (SL) schemes and the Cane–Patton (CP) algorithm. In common with the latter it treats the shallow water equations implicitly in y and with attention to wave propagation in x. Unlike CP, it uses an SL-like approach to the zonal variations, which allows the scheme to apply to the full primitive equations. The great advantage, even in problems where quasigeostrophic dynamics are appropriate in the interior, is that the INC scheme accommodates complete boundary conditions.

The effects of temporal and spatial smoothing of wind forcing were evaluated in a model simulation of the tropical Pacific Ocean variability during the onset phase of the 1997/1998 El Nino. A total of 16 experiments were performed using the NASA scatterometer wind data smoothed at time intervals from 1 to 30 days and on spatial scales from 1° to 10°. A major effect of the temporal smoothing of winds is to warm sea surface temperature (SST) by reducing the energy input for vertical turbulent mixing. When the daily wind forcing was replaced by the monthly average, the mean SST increased by 0.5° to 1° over most of the tropical Pacific. The spatial smoothing of winds is not as effective as the temporal smoothing in causing SST warming, but it has a more severe influence on dynamical ocean response for smoothing scales above 5°. The onset of the 1997/1998 El Nino can be successfully simulated using the wind forcing averaged to monthly intervals and 2° squares. For climate models the spatial smoothing of wind forcing on scales larger than the width of the equatorial waveguide is a more serious limitation than the temporal smoothing on scales up to 1 month.

El Nino events owe their name to their tendency to be locked to the seasonal cycle. A simple explanation is proposed here for the locking of the peak of ENSO's basin-scale warming to the end of the calendar year. The explanation is based on incorporating a seasonally varying coupled ocean-atmosphere instability strength into the delayed oscillator mechanism for the ENSO cycle. It is shown that the seasonally varying amplification of the Rossby and Kelvin ocean waves by the coupled instability forces the events to peak when this amplification is at its minimum strength, at the end of the calendar year. The mechanism is demonstrated using a simple delayed oscillator model and is further analyzed using the Cane-Zebiak model. Being based on the oversimplified delayed oscillator paradigm of ENSO, the proposed mechanism cannot be expected to fully explain the locking of observed events to the end of the year. However, the wave dynamics perspective it offers to approaching the ENSO phase-locking problem may serve as a first step toward a fuller explanation based on more realistic models and additional data analysis.

The behavior of the solution to a two-layer wind-driven model in a multiply connected domain with bottom topography imitating the Southern Ocean is described. The abyssal layer of the model is forced by interfacial friction, crudely simulating the effect of eddies. The analysis of the low friction regime is based on the method of characteristics. It is found that characteristics in the upper layer are closed around Antarctica, while those in the lower layer are blocked by solid boundaries. The momentum input from wind in the upper layer is balanced by lateral and interfacial friction and by interfacial pressure drag. In the lower layer the momentum input from interfacial friction and interfacial pressure drag is balanced by topographic pressure drag. Thus, the total momentum input by the wind is balanced by upper-layer lateral friction and by topographic pressure drag. In most of the numerical experiments the circulations in the two layers appear to be decoupled. The decoupling can be explained b...

The fastest perturbation growth (optimal growth) in forecasts of El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with the Zebiak and Cane model is analyzed by singular value decomposition of forward tangent models along forecast trajectories in a reduced EOF space. The authors study optimal growth in forecast runs using two different initialization procedures and discuss the relationship between optimal growth and forecast skill. Consistent with Part I of this work, one dominant growing singular vector is found. Most of the variation of optimal growth, measured by the largest singular value, for warm events and mean condition is seasonal, attributable to the seasonal variations in the background states. For cold events the seasonal optimal growth is substantially suppressed. The first singular vector is approximately white in EOF space, while its final pattern after a 6-month evolution is dominated by the first EOF. The energy norm amplifies between 5- and 24-fold in 6 months. This indicates that small-scale...

The object of this modeling study is to identify the physical mechanisms responsible for seasonal variability in sea surface Δ14C for the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Analyses of Δ14C in corals from Guam, Galapagos, Fanning, and Canton reveal seasonal variability between 30 and 50 per mil during the 1970s and early 1980s. Given that this variability occurs on seasonal timescales, whereas air-sea isotopic equilibration occurs on a timescale of 5 to 10 years, the variability must be due to seasonal variability in the physical circulation of the ocean. We use the primitive equation ocean circulation model of Gent and Cane [1989], along with the hybrid mixed layer model of Chen et al. [1994a], to study the dynamical mechanisms responsible. Upwelling in the eastern equatorial Pacific brings up Δ14C-depleted waters, and air-sea exchange creates high Δ14C in the western equatorial Pacific, establishing horizontal gradients in sea surface Δ14C. Seasonally varying lateral advection, acting on these gradients, is the dominant mechanism for Δ14C variability in the equatorial Pacific. In addition to the runs which were forced with seasonally varying winds, a run which used interannual winds between 1971 and 1985 was performed. The substantial interannual Δ14C variability present in this run is associated with advective anomalies in the equatorial waveguide.

The Kalman filter is the optimal linear assimilation scheme only if the first- and second-order statistics of the observational and system noise are correctly specified. If not, optimality can be reached in principle by using an adaptive filter that estimates both the state vector and the system error statistics. In this study, the authors compare the ability of three adaptive assimilation schemes at estimating an unbiased, stationary system noise. The adaptive algorithms are implemented in a reduced space linear model for the tropical Pacific. Using a twin experiment approach, the algorithms are compared by assimilating sea level data at fixed locations mimicking the tropical Pacific tide gauges network. It is shown that the description of the system error covariance matrix requires too many parameters for the adaptive problem to be well posed. However, the adaptive procedures are efficient if the number of noise parameters is dramatically reduced and their performance is shown to be closed to optimal, that is, based on the true system noise covariance. The link between those procedures is elucidated, and the question of their applicability and respective computational cost is discussed.

The role of ocean dynamics in the regulation of tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) is investigated using the Zebiak-Cane coupled occan-atmosphere model. The model is forced with a uniform heating, or cooling, varying between ±40 W m−2 into the ocean surface. A new climatological SST pattern is established for which the area-averaged temperature change is smaller in magnitude than the imposed forcing. The forcing is balanced almost equally by a change in the heat flux out of the ocean and by vertical advection of heat in the ocean through anomalous equatorial ocean upwelling. The generation of anomalous upwelling is identified here as a possible mechanism capable of regulating tropical SSTS. This ocean dynamical thermostat mechanism has, a seasonally varying efficiency that causes amplification (weakening) of the seasonal cycle for the heating (cooling). The interannual variability also changes under the imposed forcing. These results suggest that the role of ocean dynamic should he included...

In this paper, surface wind stress anomalies over the tropical Pacific simulated by an AGCM and by a simple atmospheric model are compared with observed. The AGCM is the higher resolution global spectral model-COLA R40 model and the simple atmospheric model is the atmospheric component of the Cane-Zebiak coupled ocean-atmosphere model. The results show that the wind stress anomalies simulated by both the COLA R40 and the simple model have captured the main features of observation but thex component in the CZ model is closer to that in observation than that in the COLA model, and the correlation coefficients between simulated SSTA from the CZ model and observed for Nino indices are higher than those from the COLA model.

In this paper, zonal momentum balances of the tropical atmospheric circulation during the global monsoon mature months (January and July) are analyzed in three dimensions based on the ECMWF Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim). It is found that the dominant terms in the balance of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) in both months are the pressure gradient force, the Coriolis force, and friction. The nonlinear advection term plays a significant role only in the Asian summer monsoon regions within the ABL. In the upper troposphere, the pressure gradient force, the Coriolis force, and the nonlinear advection are the dominant terms. The transient eddy force and the residual force (which can be explained as convective momentum transfer over open oceans) are secondary, yet cannot be neglected near the equator. Zonal-mean equatorial upper-troposphere easterlies are maintained by the absolute angular momentum advection associated with the cross-equatorial Hadley circulation. Equatorial upper-troposphere easterlies over the Asian monsoon regions are also controlled by the absolute angular momentum advection but are mainly maintained by the pressure gradient force in January. The equivalent linear Rayleigh friction, which is widely applied in simple tropical models, is calculated and the corresponding spatial distribution of the local coefficient and damping time scale are estimated from the linear regression. It is found that the linear momentum model is in general capable of crudely describing the tropical atmospheric circulation dynamics, yet the caveat should be kept in mind that the friction coefficient is not uniformly distributed and is even negative in some regions.

Recent modeling studies of thermohaline variability have imposed rapid damping of modeled sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies equivalent to assuming the atmosphere has an infinite heat capacity. Such surface heat flux parameterizations effectively exclude the possibility of SST playing an active role in the thermohaline circulation. The authors present results of simple thermodynamic modeling of the lower atmosphere that suggest the sensitivity of the surface heat fluxes to variations in SST is much smaller than often assumed. It is found that the flux response is strongly dependent on the scale of the SST anomaly. For the very largest scales the fluxes increase by only a few watts per square meter per kelvin change of SST. For the scales typical of observed anomalies the nonlocality of the response enhances the sensitivity, which may reach up to ∼15 W m−2 K−1. This extreme is still less than half of the values typically assumed in ocean models. The small sensitivity arises from the adjustmen...

A reduced gravity, primitive equation, ocean GCM with an isopycnal vertical coordinate is developed. A “buffer” layer is introduced to allow the mixed layer to detrain mass at arbitrary densities without the coordinate drift or the heat loss suffered by other isopycnal models. The diapycnal velocity is derived from the thermodynamic equation. Negative layers are removed by a heat- and mass-conserving convective adjustment scheme. The model formulation on a β plane employs an A grid and allows irregular coastlines and local grid stretching. Simulations with climatological winds and surface heat fluxes based on observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are presented for the Atlantic, the Pacific, and the Indian Oceans. The surface mixed layer is modeled as a constant depth layer, and salinity effects are neglected in this version. The surface heat flux parameterization used here leads to errors in model SSTs, which are reasonable in the Tropics but are higher in the western boundary current regions....

A scheme is presented for solving the equation for barotropic ocean circulation, taking into account the special character of the problem: nearly inviscid motion following f/H contours in the ocean interior, with viscous effects closing the flow near western boundaries. Using a special compact finite-difference discretization, the scheme generates boundary layers without spurious oscillations and without demanding very high resolution. Sharp changes in topography and closed f/H contours (e.g., in the vicinity of high sea mounts) are also handled by the scheme in a way that localizes errors due to underresolved topographic features. Strategies are formulated for simplifying the connectedness of the domain by “sinking” the islands.

The behavior of the Cane-Zebiak ENSO prediction model is analyzed as a function of model parameters measuring the strength of coupling between the model ocean and atmosphere and the amplitude of the back-ground seasonal cycle specified in the model. As either of these two parameters is increased, the model undergoes a transition from periodic to chaotic behavior according to the universal quasi-periodicity route to chaos. Thus, the irregularity of model ENSO events and their partial locking to the seasonal cycle can both be explained as low-order chaotic behavior driven by the seasonal cycle. The chaos is due to irregular jumping of the Pacific natural ocean-atmosphere oscillator between different nonlinear resonances with the seasonal forcing. The periodic seasonal forcing seems to be the main factor determining the chaotic behavior of the model. However, the full irregularity of model ENSO events is only explained by considering additional factors, possibly including the nonlinear interaction o...

To determine the value of the adjustable parameters of an ocean model required to optimally fit the observations, an adaptive inverse method is developed and applied to a sea surface temperature (SST) model of the tropical Atlantic. The best-fit calculation is performed by minimizing a misfit between observed and simulated data, which depends on the observational and the modeling errors. An adaptive procedure is designed in which the model being tuned is also used to construct a model of the observational errors. This is done by performing the optimization on the mean seasonal cycle and using the SST anomalies obtained for different years and plausible forcing fields as additional information to construct a sample estimate of the observational error covariance matrix. Assuming idealized modeling errors, the procedure is applied to the SST model of Blumenthal and Cane, yielding refined estimates for several models and heat flux parameters. The simulation of the mean annual SST is improved but not ...

The midlatitude response to tropical Pacific SST anomalies involves changes in transient eddy propagation, but the processes leading to the transient eddy changes are still not clear. In a recent study, we used a series of controlled general circulation model (GCM) experiments in which an imposed tropical Pacific sea-surface temperature (SST) anomaly is turned on abruptly and the response is analyzed in terms of its high- and low-frequency parts, to show that the changes in transient eddies induced by El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) arise from changes in wave refraction on the altered mean flow. In this work, we use a quasi-geostrophic linear model and a linear stationary wave model, to interpret the GCM experiments and obtain the sequence of events that lead from a tropical SST anomaly to the quasi-equilibrium change in the mean and transient atmospheric circulation. The initial direct response of the mean flow is confined to the tropical and subtropical Pacific, similar to what is obtained from a stationary wave model. This tropical–subtropical mean flow change initiates a transient eddy response, which induces a midlatitude mean flow anomaly. The wave–mean flow system evolves towards a state in which the eddy anomalies maintain the mean flow anomalies, allowing them to persist. It is further shown that, while eddy momentum fluxes persistently accelerate and decelerate the subtropical and midlatitude mean flow, the eddy heat flux effect on the zonal mean flow is much more variable, and only marginally significant. The linear quasi-geostrophic model calculations capture the evolution of eddy momentum flux anomalies equatorwards of 60°N quite well, suggesting linear wave refraction can explain the midlatitude ENSO anomalies. However, other processes, like stationary waves or changes in the nonlinear stage of eddy life cycles, are needed to explain the ENSO-related anomalies at high latitudes, polewards of around 60°N. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society

An intercomparison is undertaken of the tropical behavior of 17 coupled ocean-atmosphere models in which at least one component may be termed a general circulation model (GCM). The aim is to provide a taxonomy—a description and rough classification—of behavior across the ensemble of models, focusing on interannual variability. The temporal behavior of the sea surface temperature (SST) field along the equator is presented for each model, SST being chosen as the primary variable for intercomparison due to its crucial role in mediating the coupling and because it is a sensitive indicator of climate drift. A wide variety of possible types of behavior are noted among the models. Models with substantial interannual tropical variability may be roughly classified into cases with propagating SST anomalies and cases in which the SST anomalies develop in place. A number of the models also exhibit significant drift with respect to SST climatology. However, there is not a clear relationship between climate drift and the presence or absence of interannual oscillations. In several cases, the mode of climate drift within the tropical Pacific appears to involve coupled feedback mechanisms similar to those responsible for El Niño variability. Implications for coupled-model development and for climate prediction on seasonal to interannual time scales are discussed. Overall, the results indicate considerable sensitivity of the tropical coupled ocean-atmosphere system and suggest that the simulation of the warm-pool/cold-tongue configuration in the equatorial Pacific represents a challenging test for climate model parameterizations.

We analyze the linearized version of an analytical model, which combines linear ocean dynamics with a simple version of the Bjerknes hypothesis for El Nino. The ocean is represented by linear shallow water equations on an equatorial beta-plane. It is driven by zonal wind stress, which is assumed to have a fixed spatial form. Stress amplitude is set to be proportional to the thermocline displacement at the eastern boundary. It is shown that, for physically plausible parameter values, the model system can sustain growing Oscillations. Both growth rate and period scale directly with the time that an oceanic Kelvin wave needs to crow the basin. They are quite sensitive to the coupling parameter between thermocline displacement and wind stress, and the zonal location and meridional width of the wind. The most important parameter determining this behavior of the system is the coupling constant. For strong coupling the system exhibits exponential growth without oscillation. As the coupling is decreased ...

[1] We propose that temporal variations within the marine plankton system can induce intraseasonal variations in sea surface temperature (SST) through the effect on solar penetration due to chlorophyll and other optically active organic components. Sensitivity studies with a simple model suggest that these small oscillations in SST may stimulate radiative-convective oscillations in the atmosphere which amplify them and thus induce or modulate significant variability in the coupled system. Long term bio-optical measurements in the Western Pacific, where satellite time series are degraded by clouds, would provide a test of our theory and would improve our understanding of the heat balance in this climatically important region.

Low-dimensional models can give insight into the climate system, in particular its response to externally imposed forcing such as the anthropogenic emission of green-house gases. Here, we use the Lorenz system, a chaotic dynamical system characterized by two “regimes”, to examine the effect of a weak imposed forcing. We show that the probability density functions (PDF's) of time-spent in the two regimes are exponential, and that the most dramatic response to forcing is a change in the frequency of occurrence of extremely persistent events, rather than the weaker change in the mean persistence time. This enhanced sensitivity of the “tails” of the PDF's to forcing is quantitatively explained by changes in the stability of the regimes. We demonstrate similar behavior in a stochastically forced double well system. Our results suggest that the most significant effect of anthropogenic forcing may be to change the frequency of occurrence of persistent climate events, such as droughts, rather than the mean.

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle is modeled as a low-order chaotic process driven by the seasonal cycle. A simple model suggests that the equatorial Pacific ocean-atmosphere oscillator can go into nonlinear resonance with the seasonal cycle and that with strong enough coupling between the ocean and the atmosphere, the system may become chaotic as a result of irregular jumping of the ocean-atmosphere system among different nonlinear resonances. An analysis of a time series from an ENSO prediction model is consistent with the low-order chaos mechanism.

The western tropical Pacific is thought to be an important zone for generating El Nino: reflections at the boundary make it a source region of equatorial Kelvin waves. Calculations of the effect of a gappy western boundary on the reflection process are carried out in the framework of the low-frequency limit of the shallow-water equations and thus are highly idealized. The method is also applied to a schematic version of the flow through the Indonesian seas from the western Pacific to the Indian Oceans. The results indicate some strong sensitivities to the location of the gap and to the structure of the incoming flows. In addition, the results can be quite different, depending on whether the zonal extend of the gap is assumed to be infinite or finite. (More precisely, the latter means that the extend of the gap is short compared with the zonal wavelength of the relevant free waves at that frequency.) In view of the complexity of the results for even such a simplified model, it will be very difficult to be confident of any modeling study of the Indonesian throughflow short of a highly resolved numerical calculation with a detailed representation of the geometry and bathymetry. Nonetheless, we offer tentative conclusions concerning the efficiency of the western Pacific boundary as a reflector. Our results suggest that the realistic boundary will not greatly alter expectations based on a simple solid boundary if the reflections important for El Nino are primarily in motion, represented by low-order Rossby modes. This is also consistent with observational evidence indicating no anomalous throughflow during El Nino events.

Procedures are developed for calculating effects of western boundaries of arbitrary geometry on low-frequency equatorial waves. We show that the mass flux incident at the coast is all returned eastward by equatorial Kelvin waves. Short Rossby waves generated as part of the reflection serve only to redistribute mass along the coast. For the case of a uniformly sloping coast we present formulae and graphical results for the amplitude of the equatorial Kelvin wave reflected at the coast due to incident free Rossby waves. Results are shown to depend on the single parameter γω where γ is the slope of the coast and ω is the nondimensional frequency. Similar results are presented for a special class of forced problems. Possible implications for equatorial currents in the Indian Ocean are discussed.

A fast, efficient numerical procedure for modeling the linear low-frequency motions on an equatorial beta plane is developed. The model is capable of simulating the seasonal and interannual variability in realistically shaped ocean basins forced by realistic winds. The timestep allowed is the order of days rather than hours as allowed by more conventional schemes. The numerical method is designed around the special characteristics of low-frequency equatorial waves. A crucial element is the formulation of proper boundary conditions, including those for a partial boundary such as the western end of the Gulf of Guinea. The response of an Atlantic-shaped basin to a periodic wind is compared with the analytic results of Cane and Sarachik for a meridionally unbounded ocean. The response along the equator is essentially the same. A narrow boundary layer forms along the Guinea coast, too narrow to be a single coastally trapped wave: it is the sum of many modes. The near lack of phase variation along the coast and the smallness of the phase difference between the equator and the coast are additional contrasts to the results for an initial value problem studied by Moore and others. The implication is that the annually recurring upwelling in the Gulf of Guinea cannot be adequately modeled as the response to an impulsively applied wind stress.

A coupled atmosphere-ocean model is developed and used to study the ENSO (El Ni&ntilde/Southern Oscillation) phenomenon. With no anomalous external forcing, the coupled model reproduces certain key features of the observed phenomenon. including the recurrence of warm events at irregular intervals with a preference for three to four years. It is shown that the mean sea surface temperature, wind and ocean current fields determine the characteristic spatial structure of ENSO anomalies. The tendency for phase-locking of anomalies is explained in terms of a variation in coupling strength associated with the annual cycle in the mean fields. Sensitivity studies reveal that both the amplitude and the time of scale of the oscillation are sensitive to several parameters that affect the strength of the atmosphere–ocean coupling. Stronger coupling implies larger oscillations with a longer time scale. A critical element of the model oscilliation is the variability in the equatorial heat content of the upper o...

A formalism is developed to examine the effect of zonally varying stratification on equatorial wave phenomena; an effect present in the real ocean but neglected from standard linear theory. The approach utilized involves the application of a matching condition to equatorial waves incident on a single zonal discontinuity in the density field of a shallow water system. Transmission and reflection coefficients are sought for the projection of an incoming wave onto the entire set of resultant vertical and horizontal wave modes of a general continuously stratified fluid. The limiting case of a meridional density front is extended, in a manner analogous to radiative transfer problems, to a series of discrete density intervals. These techniques are applied to specific choices of stratification ranging from a zonal jump discontinuity in the density field to density changes with zonal scales large with respect to the waves in question, i.e., a WKB limit. The results demonstrate that zonally varying strati...

A model testing procedure based on multivariate statistical analysis has been developed to provide an objective measure of the fit between ocean model simulations and observations, taking into account the uncertainties in the atmospheric forcing and the inaccuracies in the oceanic data. The method is applied to the seasonal variations in an ocean model of the tropical Atlantic. A wind-driven linear multimode model with a simple mixed-layer is tested against surface currents estimated from ship drift. The uncertainties in the observations, and in the model response due to random errors in the wind stress and its interannual variability create a substantial indeterminacy in the available sample, but it is shown that they do not explain the large discrepancies that are found between observed and modeled seasonal surface currents. Nor are the uncertainties in the wind stress bulk formulation sufficient to account for the model-data differences. These can then be attributed unambiguously to the oversi...

A simplified model originally developed to simulate sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Pacific is extended in two directions. First, the model is formulated and run for the tropical Atlantic. Second, optimal values are determined for a number of model parameters, especially those determining surface heat flux. In the Pacific, the difference between model SST and data SST is the size of the probable error due to uncertainties in the heat flux, 0 (35 W m−2). in the equatorial Atlantic the discrepancies may also be attributed to heat flux errors but model-data differences in the Atlantic near coastal regions north of 10°N and south of 10°S are too large to be explained by heat flux errors: model problems involving other physical processes must be involved. By giving the best result possible in the face of our uncertain knowledge of the parameters and observations, the optimal-fit procedure unambiguously indicates which oceanic features require model changes in order to be adequately chara...

We describe a new numerical model designed to study the interactions between hydrodynamics and thermodynamics in the upper ocean. The model incorporates both primitive equation dynamics and a parameterization of mixed layer physics. There is a consistent treatment of mixed layer structure for all physical processes. In order to study interplay between dynamics and mixed layer physics in the equatorial ocean, we carried out a series of numerical experiments with simple patterns of wind stress and surface heating. In some cases stratification and/or mixed layer physics were suppressed. On the basis of these experiments we reached the following conclusions: The vertical circulation at the equator is so vigorous that surface heating is essential if stratification is to be maintained for periods longer than a few months. Without stratification to inhibit mixed layer deepening momentum will be mixed uniformly to the main thermocline and the equatorial undercurrent will disappear. Vertical transfers of momentum due to vertical advection and mixed layer entrainment are essential features of equatorial dynamics. These process influence currents, SST and upwelling rates more than changes in sea surface elevation. Consequently, the overall mass field adjustments of equatorial oceans are more nearly linear than are the currents or SST variations. The connection between changes in SST and dynamical quantities such as sea surface topography need not be straightforward. For example, increased upwelling will make the mixed layer shallower but will not reduce SST unless it induces increased entrainment of colder water. The influences of upwelling and down-welling on SST are highly asymmetric so that the influence of perturbations cannot be predicted without considering the mean vertical velocity. The asymmetry in the interaction between vertical velocity and mixed layer physics can result in the formation of surface fronts. On the upwelling side of a w = 0 line the surface layer is cold and shallow while on the downwelling side it is warm and deep. Differential advection creates a temperature discontinuity at the depth discontinuity. It is suggested that the Galapagos Front has this character.

The Kalman filter is implemented and tested for a simple model of sea level anomalies in the tropical Pacific, using tide gauge data from six selected island stations to update the model. The Kalman filter requires detailed statistical assumptions about the errors in the model and the data. In this study, it is assumed that the model errors are dominated by the errors in the wind stress analysis. The error model is a simple covariance function with parameters fit from the observed differences between the tide gauge data and the model output. The fitted parameters are consistent with independent estimates of the errors in the wind stress analysis. The calibrated error model is used in a Kalman filtering scheme to generate monthly sea level height anomaly maps for the tropical Pacific. The filtered maps, i.e., those which result from data assimilation, exhibit fine structure that is absent from the unfiltered model output, even in regions removed from the data insertion points. Error estimates, an ...

Seasonal heat transport is examined in a simple, linear, shallow-water model on the equatorial beta plane. It is found in this model that meridional transport by the seasonally varying western boundary current is of the same magnitude but opposite phase to the seasonally varying interior transport and therefore tends to cancel.

A coupled atmosphere-ocean model is presented for El Niño and the Southern Oscillation that reproduces its major features, including its recurrence at irregular intervals. The interannual El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle is maintained by deterministic interactions in the tropical Pacific region. Ocean dynamics alter sea-surface temperature, changing the atmospheric heating; the resulting changes in surface wind alter the ocean dynamics. Annually varying mean conditions largely determine the spatial pattern and temporal evolution of El Niño events.

The fundamental physical laws used in numerical models of the ocean circulation are known: the foundation is the Navier-Stokes equations. However, every ocean model is only an approximation of the complete physics. Sometimes simplifications are deliberately introduced in order to isolate a subset of the physics believed to be essential to the phenomena under study, but in all cases computational feasibility demands approximation.

A new low-frequency standing equatorial wave mode is described. It is composed solely of long Kelvin and Rossby waves, whereas previously described low-frequency modes involved short, eastward propagating Rossby waves. It is argued that these short waves travel too slowly to allow such modes to set up. A simple closed form expression is given for the new basin mode; this is also a new form for the sum of a Kelvin wave and its eastern boundary reflection.

Different wind field analyses are used to force a one layer adiabatic model of the near equ~torial surface circulation in the Indian Ocean in 1979. The model simulates .the major features. of the obse~atlOns: ea:>tward jets were present in April-May and in October-November In the' central Indian Ocea.n In phase With the local winds; the seasonal changes of thermocline depth in the western part of the basIn are related to the near equatorial currents. .... Significant discrepancies are also found. Some are due to the uncertaInty In. the WInd fiel.ds. Correlation between different wind fields are only of the order of 0.75 for the low frequencies and mag~ltud~s can vary by a factor of 1.5. Others are attributed fo model inadequacies, especially the ne~ect of nonhnean~y and the oversimplification of the vertical structure. Ther~ is an unrealistic energy focus In the central Indian Ocean though, in general, seasonal changes are underestimated by at least 30%. . '" Simpler dynamics failed to produce a reasonable agreement over the whole basIn. A. Yoshida Jet did well for the currents in the central part of the basin, but did not reproduce the mass changes In the west. Sverdrup equilibrium reproduces the model zonal slope of the thermocline, but not the currents.

We develop a linear theory for the effects of partial boundaries on low frequency waves of the kind thought to be important in the seasonal and interannual variations of the equatorial circulation. The western partial boundary case (e. g. Brazil) differs from the eastern one (e. g., the Gulf of Guinea) by the presence of short Rossby waves trapped along the north-south part of the boundary which form a boundary current accomplishing the required meridional redistribution of the zonal mass flux. There is a discontinuity in the dynamic topography at the corner of the east-west current at this point. Calculations for the world's equatorial ocean basin shapes are discussed. Calculations carried out for equatorial islands show that propagation of such low frequency waves will not be affected significantly by any island of the real equatorial ocean.

Luyten and Roemmich have shown a strong semiannual signal in zonal velocity in the upper, western part of the equatorial Indian Ocean. Their observations are modeled by assuming that they are directly forced by the observed semiannual component of zonal wind stress, which is relatively large in the equatorial Indian Ocean. The model is linear, periodic, has linear damping, uses the long-wave approximation, and can be solved analytically. A good comparison with the observations is obtained for the phase of the oscillation across the array. The predicted magnitude is somewhat smaller than in the observations. The model sensitivity to friction and the spatial distribution of the wind stress is explored. Some additional model simplifications are discussed, but it is concluded that they all detract substantially from the comparison. The main conclusion is that the observations can be accounted for as a directly forced response to the semiannual component of the near-equatorial zonal winds.

A model for the climatological mean sea surface temperature (SST) of the tropical Pacific Ocean is developed. The upper ocean response is computed using a time dependent, linear, reduced gravity model, with the addition of a constant depth frictional surface layer. The full three-dimensional temperature equation and a surface heat flux parameterization that requires specification of only wind speed and total cloud cover are used to evaluate the SST. Specification of atmospheric parameters, such as air temperature and humidity, over which the ocean has direct influence, is avoided. The model simulates the major features of the observed tropical Pacific SST. The seasonal evolution of these features is generally captured by the model. Analysis of the results demonstrates the control the ocean has over the surface heat flux from ocean to atmosphere and the crucial role that dynamics play in determining the mean SST in the equatorial Pacific. The sensitivity of the model to perturbations in the surface heat flux, cloud cover specification, diffusivity, and mixed layer depth is discussed.