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Assessment of constituent loads in rivers is essential to evaluate water quality of streams and estuaries; however, uncertainty in load estimation may be large and must be considered and communicated together with estimates. In this comparative study, the usefulness of two existing methods (bootstrap and Bayesian inference) to assess uncertainty in constituent loads estimated with an improved eight-parameter rating curve is demonstrated. Bootstrap prediction intervals and Bayesian credible intervals were estimated for daily and monthly loads obtained with a rating curve applied to routine monitoring sampling data sets of nitrate (NO3-N), reactive phosphorus (RP), and total phosphorus (TP) of the Duck River, in Tasmania (Australia). Predicted loads and prediction intervals were compared to benchmark loads obtained by an independent, high frequency monitoring program. The eight-parameter rating curve resulted in better prediction of NO3-N and TP than RP loads. Both inference methods successfully generated prediction intervals. The bracketing frequency (i.e., the fraction of prediction intervals that comprised benchmark loads) of bootstrap prediction intervals was 50-65% of daily or monthly benchmark loads. Bracketing frequency of Bayesian credible intervals was consistently higher, and included 74-85% of benchmark daily loads and 80% or more of benchmark monthly loads. Both methods proved to be robust to the presence of an artificial outlier. Prediction intervals were affected by the distribution of the regression error, hence they reflected uncertainty in the regression data set and limitations in the rating curve formulation. They did not account for other sources of uncertainty, i.e., they were still conservative predictions of load uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Strategies to reduce phosphorus and sediment yields are identified for two Australian catchments using a nonlinear optimisation model. This provides novel insight into the cost-effective management of dual pollutants of water courses in Australia. A strong degree of complementarity between the two pollutants is highlighted, given the adsorption of phosphorus to sediment that augments the value of gully and streambank management for mitigation. However, the relationship between the two pollutants is asymmetric. A 30 per cent reduction in phosphorus yield achieves a 75 per cent reduction in sediment yield in one catchment, while a 30 per cent reduction in sediment yield achieves only a 12 per cent reduction in phosphorus yield. Sediment abatement costs are low given the efficiency of gully and streambank management. A 30 per cent phosphorus reduction lowers profit by 3-7 per cent, while a 30 per cent sediment reduction lowers profit by around 1 per cent. Land-use optimisation requires spatial heterogeneity in land-use and gully/streambank management responses. Overall, this research demonstrates the need to determine whether one pollutant is more important than another, while recognising the potential that mitigation practices possess for the reduction of multiple emissions during their evaluation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: A target to reduce phosphorus flows into the Gippsland Lakes in south-eastern Australia by 40% in order to improve water quality has previously been established by stakeholders. This target, like many others worldwide, has been set mostly on the basis of environmental concerns, with limited consideration of issues such as technical feasibility, socio-economic constraints, political factors and associated costs and benefits. An integrated analysis at the catchment scale is undertaken to assess the agricultural land management changes required to achieve this target, and to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of these changes. Based on assumptions used, it appears technically feasible to achieve a 40% reduction in P load entering the Lakes. However, the least-costly way of doing so would require around A$1 billion over 25years, a dramatic increase in the current levels of funding provided for management. Results of a sensitivity analysis indicate that there is little or no chance of investment in a 40% reduction being cost-effective. On the other hand, a 20% P reduction could be achieved at much lower cost: around $80 million over 25years and requiring more modest land-management changes. Reliance on voluntary adoption of ‘Current Recommended Practices’ is unlikely to deliver changes in management practices at the scale required to have sufficient environmental impacts. Enforcement of existing regulations for the dairy industry would be amongst the most cost-effective management strategies. The major implications of this work for agriculturally induced diffuse-source pollution include the need for feedback between goal setting and program costs, and consideration of factors such as the levels of landholder adoption of new practices that are required and the feasibility of achieving those adoption levels. Costs, landholder adoption of new practices and socio-political risks appear neglected in the formulation of many water quality programs. The study provides a demonstration of an approach to integrated multidisciplinary research addressing complex environmental problems with multiple decision makers, multiple stakeholders, and high uncertainty. On the evidence of experience in this study, the approach deserves consideration in other contexts. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]