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BackgroundThe objective of this study is to develop predictive models for persistent opioid use following lower extremity joint arthroplasty and determine if ensemble learning and an oversampling technique may improve model performance.MethodsWe compared various predictive models to identify at-risk patients for persistent postoperative opioid use using various preoperative, intraoperative, and postoperative data, including surgical procedure, patient demographics/characteristics, past surgical history, opioid use history, comorbidities, lifestyle habits, anesthesia details, and postoperative hospital course. Six classification models were evaluated: logistic regression, random forest classifier, simple-feedforward neural network, balanced random forest classifier, balanced bagging classifier, and support vector classifier. Performance with Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE) was also evaluated. Repeated stratified k-fold cross-validation was implemented to calculate F1-scores and area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC).ResultsThere were 1042 patients undergoing elective knee or hip arthroplasty in which 242 (23.2%) reported persistent opioid use. Without SMOTE, the logistic regression model has an F1 score of 0.47 and an AUC of 0.79. All ensemble methods performed better, with the balanced bagging classifier having an F1 score of 0.80 and an AUC of 0.94. SMOTE improved performance of all models based on F1 score. Specifically, performance of the balanced bagging classifier improved to an F1 score of 0.84 and an AUC of 0.96. The features with the highest importance in the balanced bagging model were postoperative day 1 opioid use, body mass index, age, preoperative opioid use, prescribed opioids at discharge, and hospital length of stay.ConclusionsEnsemble learning can dramatically improve predictive models for persistent opioid use. Accurate and early identification of high-risk patients can play a role in clinical decision making and early optimization with personalized interventions.

Background Estimating surgical case duration accurately is an important operating room efficiency metric. Current predictive techniques in spine surgery include less sophisticated approaches such as classical multivariable statistical models. Machine learning approaches have been used to predict outcomes such as length of stay and time returning to normal work, but have not been focused on case duration. Objective The primary objective of this 4-year, single-academic-center, retrospective study was to use an ensemble learning approach that may improve the accuracy of scheduled case duration for spine surgery. The primary outcome measure was case duration. Methods We compared machine learning models using surgical and patient features to our institutional method, which used historic averages and surgeon adjustments as needed. We implemented multivariable linear regression, random forest, bagging, and XGBoost (Extreme Gradient Boosting) and calculated the average R2, root-mean-square error (RMSE), explained variance, and mean absolute error (MAE) using k-fold cross-validation. We then used the SHAP (Shapley Additive Explanations) explainer model to determine feature importance. Results A total of 3189 patients who underwent spine surgery were included. The institution’s current method of predicting case times has a very poor coefficient of determination with actual times (R2=0.213). On k-fold cross-validation, the linear regression model had an explained variance score of 0.345, an R2 of 0.34, an RMSE of 162.84 minutes, and an MAE of 127.22 minutes. Among all models, the XGBoost regressor performed the best with an explained variance score of 0.778, an R2 of 0.770, an RMSE of 92.95 minutes, and an MAE of 44.31 minutes. Based on SHAP analysis of the XGBoost regression, body mass index, spinal fusions, surgical procedure, and number of spine levels involved were the features with the most impact on the model. Conclusions Using ensemble learning-based predictive models, specifically XGBoost regression, can improve the accuracy of the estimation of spine surgery times.