1. Validation of a 5-Year Prognostic Model for Parkinson's Disease.
- Author
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Ribeiro J, Camacho M, Scott KM, Greenland JC, Evans JR, Breen DP, Wijeyekoon RS, Barker RA, and Williams-Gray CH
- Subjects
- Humans, Prognosis, Male, Female, Aged, Middle Aged, Cohort Studies, Severity of Illness Index, Parkinson Disease diagnosis, Parkinson Disease mortality
- Abstract
Background: A simple prognostic model was previously developed to predict the probability of recently-diagnosed patients reaching negative outcomes (postural instability, dementia or death) in a 5-year period., Objectives: To validate this model in an independent cohort and establish utility at later time points., Methods: Validation was performed using data collected in an incident cohort at baseline, 2 and 4 years. Predicted negative outcome probabilities were compared to actual 5-year outcomes., Results: The model, based on age, MDS-UPDRS axial score and 60-second animal fluency, predicted poor 5-year outcome when applied at baseline, (area under the curve (AUC) 0.80), 2 years (AUC 0.82) and 4 years (AUC 0.71). Power calculations showed that selecting a subgroup with prognostic score >0.5 reduced the sample size required for a disease-modifying trial., Conclusions: This 5-year prognostic model has good accuracy when employed up to 4 years from diagnosis and may help stratification for disease-modifying trials., (© 2024 The Author(s). Movement Disorders Clinical Practice published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society.)
- Published
- 2024
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