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This microeconometric study analyzes the effects of individual leisure sports participation on long-term labour market variables, on socio-demographic as well as on health and subjective well-being indicators for West Germany based on individual data from the German Socio-Economic Panel study (GSOEP) 1984 to 2006. Econometric problems due to individuals choosing their own level of sports activities are tackled by combining informative data and flexible semiparametric estimation methods with a specific way to use the panel dimension of the data. The paper shows that sports activities have sizeable positive long-term labour market effects in terms of earnings and wages, as well as positive effects on health and subjective well-being.

This paper extends the traditional focus of active labour market policy evaluation from a static comparison of participation in a programme versus nonparticipation (or participation in another programme) to the evaluation of the effects of programme sequences, i.e. multiple participation or timing of such programmes. We use a dynamic evaluation framework that explicitly allows for dynamic selection into different stages of such sequences based on past intermediate outcomes to analyze multiple programmes, the timing of programmes, and the order of programmes. The analysis is based on exceptionally comprehensive data on the Austrian labour force. Our findings suggest that (i) active job search programmes are more effective after a qualification programme compared to the reverse order, that (ii) multiple participations in qualification measures dominates single participation, and that (iii) the effectiveness of specific labour market programmes deteriorates the later they start during an unemployment spell.

This paper investigates active labour market programs in Austria with a special emphasis on male-female effect heterogeneity. On average, we find only small effects, if any, for most of the programs. A crucial advantage of the large and informative administrative data we use is that it provides records about pregnancies and times of parental leave, in addition to the information that can typically be found in European administrative data sources used for evaluating active labour market policies. We show that these variables play a key role in removing selection bias and defining outcome variables which may explain why other similar studies found such programs to be more effective for women than for men. In particular for younger women a key effect of the programs is to reduce or postpone pregnancies and to increase the attachment to the labour force. After taking into account gender specific selection effects and the effects of the programs on pregnancies, gender differences (almost) disappear.

"We investigate the effects of the most important East German active labour market programmes on the labour market outcomes of their participants. The analysis is based on a large and informative individual database coming from administrative data sources. Using matching methods, we find that over a horizon of 2.5 years after programme start the programmes fail to increase the employment chances of their participants in the regular labour market. However, the programmes may have other effects for their participants that may be considered important in the especially difficult situation experienced in the East German labour market." (author's abstract)

"We analyse the effects of public sector sponsored training for the unemployed in the transition process in East Germany. For the microeconometric analysis, we use a new, large and informative administrative database that allows us to use matching methods to reduce potential selection bias, disaggregate programme types, and to observe interesting labour market outcomes over 8 years. We find that, generally, all training programmes under investigation increase long-term employment prospects and earnings. However, as an important exception, the longer training programmes are on average not helpful for their male participants. At least part of the explanation for this negative result is that caseworkers severely misjudged the structure of the future demand for skills." (author's abstract) Vor dem Hintergrund der Arbeitsmarktpolitik in Ostdeutschland nach der Wiedervereinigung wird die Wirksamkeit staatlich geförderter Fortbildungs- und Umschulungsmaßnahmen für Arbeitslose analysiert. Hierzu werden prozessproduzierte Daten aus drei Quellen herangezogen, um durch Matching-Verfahren die Fehler durch Selektionsbias zu vermindern, eine Disaggregation nach Maßnahmetypen vorzunehmen und Beschäftigungseffekte für die Teilnehmer zu identifizieren. Die Voraussetzungen der Maßnahmen und ihre Wirksamkeit werden beurteilt. Insgesamt zeigt sich, dass sich bei den Teilnehmern aller untersuchter Fortbildungs- und Umschulungsmaßnahmen langfristig die Beschäftigungsund Verdienstaussichten verbessern. Eine bedeutsame Ausnahme bilden jedoch Maßnahmen mit längerer Laufzeit, die in der Regel für männliche Teilnehmer wenig nützlich waren. Das wird zumindest teilweise darauf zurückgeführt, dass sich die Förderung der Weiterbildung arbeitsloser Männer in Richtung Bauwesen aufgrund der nachfolgenden Rezession in der Bauwirtschaft als Fehlentscheidung erwiesen hat. (IAB)

"Between 1991 and 1997 West Germany spent on average about 3.6 bn Euro per year on public sector sponsored training programmes for the unemployed. We base our empirical analysis on a new administrative data base that plausibly allows for selectivity correction by microeconometric matching methods. We identify the effects of different types of training programmes over a horizon of more than seven years. Using bias corrected weighted multiple neighbours matching we find that all programmes have negative effects in the short run and positive effects over a horizon of about four years. However, for substantive training programmes with duration of about two years gains in employment probabilities of more than 10% points appear to be sustainable, but come at the price of large negative lock-in effects." (author's abstract) Zwischen 1991 und 1997 wurden in Westdeutschland jährlich durchschnittlich 3,6 Milliarden Euro für die öffentliche Förderung von Weiterbildung ausgegeben. Basierend auf der Beschäftigtenstichprobe, der Leistungsempfängerdatei und der FuU-Teilnehmer-Datei des IAB werden die Beschäftigungseffekte verschiedener Formen der Weiterbildung über einen Zeithorizont von mehr als sieben Jahren ermittelt. Durch die Analyse mittels eines Bias-korrigierten gewichteten Multiple-Neighbour-Matchingverfahrens zeigt sich, dass sich alle Maßnahmen kurzfristig negativ auswirken, langfristig bei einem Zeithorizont von vier Jahren jedoch positiv. Bei langen Maßnahmen mit einer Laufzeit von etwa zwei Jahren ist schon ein Anstieg der Beschäftigungswahrscheinlichkeit von 10 Prozentpunkten nachhaltig, er wird jedoch durch negative Lock-in-Effekte erkauft. (IAB)

This paper proposes sequential matching and inverse selection probability weighting to estimate dynamic causal effects. The sequential matching estimators extend simple, matching estimators based on propensity scores for static causal analysis that have been frequently applied in the evaluation literature. A Monte Carlo study shows that the suggested estimators perform well in small and medium size samples. Based on the application of the sequential matching estimators to an empirical problem - an evaluation study of the Swiss active labour market policies - some implementational issues are discussed and results are provided.

We propose four different GMM estimators that allow almost consistent estimation of the structural parameters of panel probit models with fixed effects for the case of small T and large N. The moments used are derived for each period from a first order approximation of the mean of the dependent variable conditional on explanatory variables and on the fixed effect. The estimators differ w.r.t. the choice of instruments and whether they use trimming to reduce the bias or not. In a Monte Carlo study we compare these estimators with pooled probit and conditional logit estimators for different DGPs. The results show that the proposed estimators outperform these competitors in several situations.

In East Germany, active labour market policies (ALMPs) are used on a large scale to contain fast rising unemployment after unification. This paper evaluates the effects for participants in public employment programmes (PEPs), that are an important part of ALMPs. It focuses on individual unemployment probabilities. By concentrating on the state of Sachsen-Anhalt, the econometric analysis can use a new and large panel, the Arbeitsmarktmonitor Sachsen-Anhalt. We aim at nonparametric identification of the effects of PEPs by combining the use of comparison groups with differencing over time to correct for selection effects. Our results indicate that PEP participation reduces the unemployment risk of the participants.

This study analyses the effects of public-sector-sponsored continuous vocational training and retraining in East Germany after unification with West Germany in 1990. It presents econometric estimates of the average gains from training participation in terms of employment probabilities, earnings, and career prospects after the completion of training using a matching approach. The data is from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP, 1990-1996). The GSOEP allows the researcher to observe individual behavior on a monthly or on a yearly basis. The results suggest that despite large public expenditures there are no positive effects in the first years after training.