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Introduction: Vertebral fracture is a strong risk factor for future spine and hip fractures; yet recent data suggest that only 5-20% of subjects with a spine fracture are identified in primary care. We aimed to develop easily applicable algorithms predicting a high risk of future spine fracture in men and women over 50 years of age., Methods: Data was analysed from 5,561 men and women aged 50+ years participating in the European Prospective Osteoporosis Study (EPOS). Lateral thoracic and lumbar spine radiographs were taken at baseline and at an average of 3.8 years later. These were evaluated by an experienced radiologist. The risk of a new (incident) vertebral fracture was modelled as a function of age, number of prevalent vertebral fractures, height loss, sex and other fracture history reported by the subject, including limb fractures occurring between X-rays. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves were used to compare the predictive ability of models., Results: In a negative binomial regression model without baseline X-ray data, the risk of incident vertebral fracture significantly increased with age [RR 1.74, 95% CI (1.44, 2.10) per decade], height loss [1.08 (1.04, 1.12) per cm decrease], female sex [1.48 (1.05, 2.09)], and recalled fracture history; [1.65 (1.15, 2.38) to 3.03 (1.66, 5.54)] according to fracture site. Baseline radiological assessment of prevalent vertebral fracture significantly improved the areas subtended by ROC curves from 0.71 (0.67, 0.74) to 0.74 (0.70, 0.77) P=0.013 for predicting 1+ incident fracture; and from 0.74 (0.67, 0.81) to 0.83 (0.76, 0.90) P=0.001 for 2+ incident fractures. Age, sex and height loss remained independently predictive. The relative risk of a new vertebral fracture increased with the number of prevalent vertebral fractures present from 3.08 (2.10, 4.52) for 1 fracture to 9.36 (5.72, 15.32) for 3+. At a specificity of 90%, the model including X-ray data improved the sensitivity for predicting 2+ and 1+ incident fractures by 6 and 4 fold respectively compared with random guessing. At 75% specificity the improvements were 3.2 and 2.4 fold respectively. With the modelling restricted to the subjects who had BMD measurements (n=2,409), the AUC for predicting 1+ vs. 0 incident vertebral fractures improved from 0.72 (0.66, 0.79) to 0.76 (0.71, 0.82) upon adding femoral neck BMD (P=0.010)., Conclusion: We conclude that for those with existing vertebral fractures, an accurately read spine X-ray will form a central component in future algorithms for targeting treatment, especially to the most vulnerable. The sensitivity of this approach to identifying vertebral fracture cases requiring anti-osteoporosis treatment, even when X-rays are ordered highly selectively, exceeds by a large margin the current standard of practice as recorded anywhere in the world.

We have previously shown that center- and sex-specific fall rates explained one-third of between-center variation in upper limb fractures across Europe. In this current analysis, our aim was to determine how much of the between-center variation in fractures could be attributed to repeated falling, bone mineral density (BMD), and other risk factors in individuals, and to compare the relative contributions of center-specific BMD vs. center-specific fall rates. A clinical history of fracture was assessed prospectively in 2451 men and 2919 women aged 50-80 from 20 centers participating in the European Prospective Osteoporosis Study (EPOS) using standardized questionnaires (mean follow-up = 3 years). Bone mineral density (BMD, femoral neck, trochanter, and/or spine) was measured in 2103 men and 2565 women at these centers. Cox regression was used to model the risk of incident fracture as a function of the person-specific covariates: age, BMD, personal fracture history (PFH), family hip fracture history (FAMHIP), time spent walking/cycling, number of 'all falls' and falls not causing fracture ('fracture-free') during follow-up, alcohol consumption, and body mass index. Center effects were modeled by inclusion of multiplicative gamma-distributed random effects, termed center-shared frailty (CSF), with mean 1 and finite variance theta (theta) acting on the hazard rate. The relative contributions of center-specific fall risk and center-specific BMD on the incidence of limb fractures were evaluated as components of CSF. In women, the risk of any incident nonspine fracture (n = 190) increased with age, PFH, FAMHIP, > or =1 h/day walking/cycling, and number of 'all falls' during follow-up (all P < 0.074). 'Fracture-free' falls (P = 0.726) and femoral neck BMD did not have a significant effect at the individual level, but there was a significant center-shared frailty effect (theta = 0.271, P = 0.001) that was reduced by 4% after adjusting for mean center BMD and reduced by 19% when adjusted for mean center fall rate. Femoral trochanter BMD was a significant determinant of lower limb fractures (n = 53, P = 0.014) and the center-shared frailty effect was significant for upper limb fractures (theta = 0.271, P = 0.011). This upper limb fracture center effect was unchanged after adjusting for mean center BMD but was reduced by 36% after adjusting for center mean fall rates. In men, risk of any nonspine fracture (n = 75) increased with PFH, fall during follow-up (P < 0.026), and with a decrease in trochanteric BMD [RR 1.38 (1.08, 1.79) per 1 SD decrease]. There was no center effect evident (theta = 0.081, P = 0.096). We conclude that BMD alone cannot be validly used to discriminate between the risk of upper limb fractures across populations without taking account of population-specific variations in fall risk and other factors. These variations might reflect shared environmental or possibly genetic factors that contribute quite substantially to the risk of upper limb fractures in women.

The aim of this analysis was to determine the influence of lifestyle, anthropometric and reproductive factors on the subsequent risk of incident vertebral fracture in men and women aged 50-79 years. Subjects were recruited from population registers from 28 centers across Europe. At baseline, they completed an interviewer-administered questionnaire and had lateral thoraco-lumbar spine radiographs performed. Repeat spinal radiographs were performed a mean of 3.8 years later. Incident vertebral fractures were defined morphometrically and also qualitatively by an experienced radiologist. Poisson regression was used to determine the influence of the baseline risk factor variables on the occurrence of incident vertebral fracture. A total of 3173 men (mean age 63.1 years) and 3402 women (mean age 62.2 years) contributed data to the analysis. In total there were 193 incident morphometric and 224 qualitative fractures. In women, an age at menarche 16 years or older was associated with an increased risk of vertebral fracture (RR = 1.80; 95%CI 1.24, 2.63), whilst use of hormonal replacement was protective (RR = 0.58; 95%CI 0.34, 0.99). None of the lifestyle factors studied including smoking, alcohol intake, physical activity or milk consumption showed any consistent associations with incident vertebral fracture. In men and women, increasing body weight and body mass index were associated with a reduced risk of vertebral fracture though, apart from body mass index in men, the confidence intervals embraced unity. For most variables the strengths of the associations observed were similar using the qualitative and morphometric approaches to fracture definition. In conclusion our data suggest that modification of other lifestyle risk factors is unlikely to have a major impact on the population occurrence of vertebral fractures. The important biological mechanisms underlying vertebral fracture risk need to be explored using new investigational strategies.

The aim of this population-based prospective study was to determine the incidence of limb fracture by site and gender in different regions of Europe. Men and women aged 50-79 years were recruited from population registers in 31 European centers. Subjects were invited to attend for an interviewer-administered questionnaire and lateral spinal radiographs. Subjects were subsequently followed up using an annual postal questionnaire which included questions concerning the occurrence of new fractures. Self-reported fractures were confirmed where possible by radiograph, attending physician or subject interview. There were 6451 men and 6936 women followed for a median of 3.0 years. During this time there were 140 incident limb fractures in men and 391 in women. The age-adjusted incidence of any limb fracture was 7.3/1000 person-years [pyrs] in men and 19 per 1000 pyrs in women, equivalent to a 2.5 times excess in women. Among women, the incidence of hip, humerus and distal forearm fracture, though not 'other' limb fracture, increased with age, while in men only the incidence of hip and humerus fracture increased with age. Among women, there was evidence of significant variation in the occurrence of hip, distal forearm and humerus fractures across Europe, with incidence rates higher in Scandinavia than in other European regions, though for distal forearm fracture the incidence in east Europe was similar to that observed in Scandinavia. Among men, there was no evidence of significant geographic variation in the occurrence of these fractures. This is the first large population-based study to characterize the incidence of limb fracture in men and women over 50 years of age across Europe. There are substantial differences in the descriptive epidemiology of limb fracture by region and gender.

Vertebral fracture is one of the major adverse clinical consequences of osteoporosis; however, there are few data concerning the incidence of vertebral fracture in population samples of men and women. The aim of this study was to determine the incidence of vertebral fracture in European men and women. A total of 14,011 men and women aged 50 years and over were recruited from population-based registers in 29 European centers and had an interviewer-administered questionnaire and lateral spinal radiographs performed. The response rate for participation in the study was approximately 50%. Repeat spinal radiographs were performed a mean of 3.8 years following the baseline film. All films were evaluated morphometrically. The definition of a morphometric fracture was a vertebra in which there was evidence of a 20% (+4 mm) or more reduction in anterior, middle, or posterior vertebral height between films--plus the additional requirement that a vertebra satisfy criteria for a prevalent deformity (using the McCloskey-Kanis method) in the follow-up film. There were 3174 men, mean age 63.1 years, and 3,614 women, mean age 62.2 years, with paired duplicate spinal radiographs (48% of those originally recruited to the baseline survey). The age standardized incidence of morphometric fracture was 10.7/1,000 person years (pyr) in women and 5.7/1,000 pyr in men. The age-standardized incidence of vertebral fracture as assessed qualitatively by the radiologist was broadly similar-12.1/1,000 pyr and 6.8/1,000 pyr, respectively. The incidence increased markedly with age in both men and women. There was some evidence of geographic variation in fracture occurrence; rates were higher in Sweden than elsewhere in Europe. This is the first large population-based study to ascertain the incidence of vertebral fracture in men and women over 50 years of age across Europe. The data confirm the frequent occurrence of the disorder in men as well as in women and the rise in incidence with age.