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The 20-year US GLOBEC (Global Ocean Ecosystem Dynamics) program examined zooplankton populations and their predators in four coastal marine ecosystems. Program scientists learned that environmental controls on zooplankton vital rates, especially the timing and magnitude of reproduction, growth, life-cycle progression, and mortality, determine species population dynamics, seasonal and spatial distributions, and abundances. Improved knowledge of spatialtemporal abundance and distribution of individual zooplankton taxa coupled with new information linking higher trophic level predators (salmon, cod, haddock, penguins, seals) to their prey yielded mechanistic descriptions of how climate variation impacts regionally important marine resources. Coupled ecological models driven by improved regional-scale climate scenario models developed during GLOBEC enable forecasts of plausible future conditions in coastal ecosystems, and will aid and inform decision makers and communities as they assess, respond, and adapt to the effects of environmental change. Multi-region synthesis revealed that conditions in winter, before upwelling, or seasonal stratification, or ice melt (depending on region) had significant and important effects that primed the systems for greater zooplankton population abundance and productivity the following spring summer, with effects that propagated to higher trophic levels. © 2013 by The Oceanography Society. All rights reserved.

The goal of the Pacific Ocean Boundary Ecosystem and Climate Study (POBEX) was to diagnose the large-scale climate controls on regional transport dynamics and lower trophic marine ecosystem variability in Pacific Ocean boundary systems. An international team of collaborators shared observational and eddyresolving modeling data sets collected in the Northeast Pacific, including the Gulf of Alaska (GOA) and the California Current System (CCS), the Humboldt or Peru-Chile Current System (PCCS), and the Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension (KOE) region. POBEX investigators found that a dominant fraction of decadal variability in basin and regional-scale salinity, nutrients, chlorophyll, and zooplankton taxa is explained by a newly discovered pattern of ocean-climate variability dubbed the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). NPGO dynamics are driven by atmospheric variability in the North Pacific and capture the decadal expression of Central Pacific El Niños in the extratropics, much as the PDO captures the low-frequency expression of eastern Pacific El Niños. By combining hindcasts of eddy-resolving ocean models over the period 1950-2008 with model passive tracers and long-term observations (e.g., CalCOFI, Line-P, Newport Hydrographic Line, Odate Collection), POBEX showed that the PDO and the NPGO combine to control low-frequency upwelling and alongshore transport dynamics in the North Pacific sector, while the eastern Pacific El Niño dominates in the South Pacific. Although different climate modes have different regional expressions, changes in vertical transport (e.g., upwelling) were found to explain the dominant nutrient and phytoplankton variability in the CCS, GOA, and PCCS, while changes in alongshore transport forced much of the observed long-term change in zooplankton species composition in the KOE as well as in the northern and southern CCS. In contrast, cross-shelf transport dynamics were linked to mesoscale eddy activity, driven by regional-scale dynamics that are largely decoupled from variations associated with the large-scale climate modes. Preliminary findings suggest that mesoscale eddies play a key role in offshore transport of zooplankton and impact the life cycles of higher trophic levels (e.g., fish) in the CCS, PCCS, and GOA. Looking forward, POBEX results may guide the development of new modeling and observational strategies to establish mechanistic links among climate forcing, mesoscale circulation, and marine population dynamics. © 2013 by The Oceanography Society. All rights reserved.

In spring/summer 2015, a toxic bloom by the diatom Pseudo-nitzschia (PN) occurred along the west coast of the United States which led to closures of the harvest of razor clams and Dungeness crabs. Twice monthly observations of temperature, salinity, nutrients, chlorophyll and phytoplankton species composition allowed us to track oceanographic conditions preceding and during the development of the bloom. PN cells were first detected during late winter 2015. A PN bloom was initiated following the onset of coastal upwelling in mid-April; subsequent peaks in May and June were sustained by episodic upwelling events and reached magnitudes of 105 cells/L and 106 cells/L, 40% and 90% of the total diatom abundance, respectively. The bloom temporarily crashed in July due to a lack of upwelling, but PN cells increased again in August due to a resumption of upwelling, albeit with lower magnitude. Macronutrient conditions prior to this bloom likely played a critical role in triggering the bloom and its toxicity (particularly silicic acid limitation stress). Nutrient stress preceding the toxic bloom was related to two oceanographic events: an anomalously warm and thick water mass that occupied the northern North Pacific from September 2014 through 2015 leading to a highly-stratified water column, and the drawdown of nitrate and silicic acid during an unusually intense winter phytoplankton bloom in February and early March 2015. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research on regulatory mechanisms in biological populations often focuses on environmental covariates. An integrated approach that combines environmental indices with organismal-level information can provide additional insight on regulatory mechanisms. Survival of spring/summer Snake River Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) is consistently low whereas some adjacent populations with similar life histories experience greater survival. It is not known if populations with differential survival respond similarly during early marine residence, a critical period in the life history. Ocean collections, genetic stock identification, and otolith analyses were combined to evaluate the growth-mortality and match-mismatch hypotheses during early marine residence of spring/summer Snake River Chinook salmon. Interannual variation in juvenile attributes, including size at marine entry and marine growth rate, was compared with estimates of survival and physical and biological metrics. Multiple linear regression and multi-model inference were used to evaluate the relative importance of biological and physical metrics in explaining interannual variation in survival. There was relatively weak support for the match-mismatch hypothesis and stronger evidence for the growth-mortality hypothesis. Marine growth and size at capture were strongly, positively related to survival, a finding similar to spring Chinook salmon from the Mid-Upper Columbia River. In hindcast models, basin-scale indices (Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO)) and biological indices (juvenile salmon catch-per-unit-effort (CPUE) and a copepod community index (CCI)) accounted for substantial and similar portions of variation in survival for juvenile emigration years 1998–2008 (R2>0.70). However, in forecast models for emigration years 2009–2011, there was an increasing discrepancy between predictions based on the PDO (50–448% of observed value) compared with those based on the NPGO (68–212%) or biological indices (CPUE and CCI: 83–172%). Overall, the PDO index was remarkably informative in earlier years but other basin-scale and biological indices provided more accurate indications of survival in recent years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Generalized additive models (GAMs) were used to investigate the relationships between annual recruitment of natural coho salmon ( Oncorhynchus kisutch) from Oregon coastal rivers and indices of the physical ocean environment. Nine indices were examined, ranging from large-scale ocean indicators, e.g., Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), to indicators of the local ecosystem (e.g., coastal water temperature near Charleston, OR). Generalized additive models with two and three predictor variables were evaluated using a set of performance metrics aimed at quantifying model skill in short-term (approximately 1 yr) forecasting. High explanatory power and promising forecast skill resulted when the spring/summer PDO averaged over the 4 yr prior to the return year was used to explain a low-frequency (multi-year) pattern in recruitment and one or two additional variables accounted for year-to-year deviations from the low-frequency pattern. More variance was explained when averaging the predictions from a set of models (i.e., taking the ensemble mean) than by any single model. Making multiple forecasts from a set of models also provided a range of possible outcomes that reflected, to some degree, the uncertainty in our understanding of how salmon productivity is driven by physical ocean conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ocean survival of coho salmon ( Oncorhyncus kisutch) off the Pacific Northwest coast has been related to oceanographic conditions regulating lower trophic level production during their first year at sea. Coastal upwelling is recognized as the primary driver of seasonal plankton production but as a single index upwelling intensity has been an inconsistent predictor of coho salmon survival. Our goal was to develop a model of upwelling-driven meso-zooplankton production for the Oregon shelf ecosystem that was more immediately linked to the feeding conditions experienced by juvenile salmon than a purely physical index. The model consisted of a medium-complexity plankton model linked to a simple one-dimensional, cross-shelf upwelling model. The plankton model described the dynamics of nitrate, ammonium, small and large phytoplankton, meso-zooplankton (copepods), and detritus. The model was run from 1996 to 2007 and evaluated on an interannual scale against time-series observations of copepod biomass. The model's ability to capture observed interannual variability improved substantially when the copepod community size distribution was taken into account each season. The meso-zooplankton production index was significantly correlated with the ocean survival of hatchery coho salmon from the Oregon production area, although the coastal upwelling index that drove the model was not itself correlated with survival. Meso-zooplankton production within the summer quarter (July-September) was more strongly correlated with coho survival than was meso-zooplankton production in the spring quarter (April-June). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We conducted a statistical analysis to characterize the influence of large-scale and local environmental factors on presence-absence, concentration, and assemblage structure of larval fish within the northern California Current (NCC) ecosystem, based on samples collected at two nearshore stations along the Newport Hydrographic line off the central Oregon coast. Data from 1996 to 2005 were compared with historical data from the 1970s and 1980s to evaluate pseudo-decadal, annual, and seasonal variability. Our results indicate that the most abundant taxa from 1996 to 2005 differ from those of earlier decades. Concentrations of the dominant taxa and total larvae were generally greater in the winter/spring than summer/fall season. Using generalized additive modeling, variations in presence-absence and concentration of taxa were compared to climate indices such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Northern Oscillation Index, and the multivariate ENSO index and local environmental factors, such as upwelling, Ekman transport, and wind stress curl. Significant relationships were found for various combinations of environmental variables with lag periods ranging from 0 to 7 months. We found that the large-scale climate indices explained more of the variance in larval fish concentration and diversity than did the more local factors. Our results indicate that readily available oceanographic and climate indices can explain variations in the dominant ichthyoplankton taxa in the NCC. However, variation in response among taxa to the environmental metrics suggests additional unknown factors not included in the analysis likely contributed to the observed distribution patterns and larval fish community structure in the NCC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Yearling Chinook ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and coho salmon ( Oncorhynchus kisutch) were sampled concurrently with physical variables (temperature, salinity, depth) and biological variables (chlorophyll a concentration and copepod abundance) along the Washington and Oregon coast in June 1998-2008. Copepod species were divided into four different groups based on their water-type affinities: cold neritic, subarctic oceanic, warm neritic, and warm oceanic. Generalized linear mixed models were used to quantify the relationship between the abundance of these four different copepod groups and the abundance of juvenile salmon. The relationships between juvenile salmon and different copepod groups were further validated using regression analysis of annual mean juvenile salmon abundance versus the mean abundance of the copepod groups. Yearling Chinook salmon abundance was negatively correlated with warm oceanic copepods, warm neritic copepods, and bottom depth, and positively correlated with cold neritic copepods, subarctic copepods, and chlorophyll a concentration. The selected habitat variables explained 67% of the variation in yearling Chinook abundance. Yearling coho salmon abundance was negatively correlated with warm oceanic copepods, warm neritic copepods, and bottom depth, and positively correlated with temperature. The selected habitat variables explained 40% of the variation in yearling coho abundance. Results suggest that copepod communities can be used to characterize spatio-temporal patterns of abundance of juvenile salmon, i.e., large-scale interannual variations in ocean conditions (warm versus cold years) and inshore-offshore (cross-shelf) gradients in the abundance of juvenile salmon can be characterized by differences in the abundance of copepod species with various water mass affinities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article offers information on the impact of elevated sea surface temperatures (SSTs) or warm blob on the physical and biological oceanography of the northern California Current (NCC). It mentions that the blob of warm surface waters in the North Pacific in 2015 had been presented since the summer of 2014 and was associated with North Pacific High (NPH). It discusses the study about the impact of the condition on zooplankton species in the area.

Highlights: [•] We designed seasonal environmental multivariate indicators (MOCI). [•] MOCI reproduced known temporal variability and key events of anomalous conditions. [•] Subtropical transport decreased, subarctic increased, and upwelling intensified. [•] Seasonal MOCI did not relate to chlorophyll-a concentrations or krill abundance. [•] Seasonal MOCI explained variability in copepod biomass and seabird breeding success. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]