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Accelerating warming and associated loss of sea ice are expected to promote the expansion of coastal marine forests (macrophytes) along the massive Arctic coastlines. Yet, this region has received much less attention compared to other global oceans. The available future projections of Arctic macrophytes are still limited to few species and regions, and mostly focused at lower latitude ranges, thus precluding well-informed IPCC impact assessments, conservation and management. Here we aim to quantify potential distributional changes of Arctic intertidal and subtidal brown macroalgae and eelgrass by the year 2100, relative to present. We estimate habitat suitability by means of species distribution modeling, considering changes in seawater temperature, salinity, nutrients and sea ice cover under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios, one consistent with the Paris Agreement (RCP 2.6) and the other representing limited mitigation strategies (RCP 8.5). As data on substrate conditions do not exist, the models were restricted to the depth range supporting Arctic macrophytes (down to 5 m for eelgrass and 30 m for brown macroalgae). Models projected major expansions of Arctic macrophytes between 69,940 and 123,360 km2, depending on the climate scenario, with polar distribution limits shifting northwards by up to 1.5 latitude degrees at 21.81 km per decade. Such expansions in response to changing climate will likely elicit major changes in biodiversity and ecosystem functions in the future Arctic. Expansions are, however, less intense than those already realized over the past century, indicating an overall slowing down despite accelerated warming as habitats become increasingly occupied.. This study was supported by the Independent Research Fund Denmark through the project “CARMA” (8021- 00222B) and the European Union through the project “FACE-IT” to DK-J, the Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT) through projects UID/Multi/04326/2020 to CCMAR and PTDC/BIA-CBI/6515/2020, the transitional norm DL57/2016/CP1361/CT0035 to JA and the fellowship SFRH/BD/144878/2019 to EF, and a Pew Marine Fellowship to ES. info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion

Philippart, Catharina J.M. et al., Reproductive cycles of marine invertebrates with complex life histories are considered to be synchronized by water temperature and feeding conditions, which vary with season and latitude. This study analyses seasonal variation in the occurrence of oyster (Crassostrea gigas) and mussel (Mytilus edulis/. galloprovincialis) larvae across European coastal waters at a synoptic scale (1000s of km) using standardised methods for sampling and molecular analyses.We tested a series of hypotheses to explain the observed seasonal patterns of occurrence of bivalve larvae at 12 European stations (located between 37°N and 60°N and 27°W and 18°E). These hypotheses included a model that stated that there was no synchronisation in seasonality of larval presence at all between the locations (null hypothesis), a model that assumed that there was one common seasonality pattern for all stations within Europe, and various models that supposed that the variation in seasonality could be grouped according to specific spatial scales (i.e., latitude, large marine ecosystems and ecoregions), taxonomic groups, or several combinations of these factors.For oysters, the best models explaining the presence/absence of larvae in European coastal waters were (1) the model that assumed one common seasonal pattern, and (2) the one that, in addition to this common pattern, assumed an enhanced probability of occurrence from south to north. The third best model for oysters, with less empirical support than the first two, stated that oysters reproduced later in the south than in the north. For mussels, the best models explaining the seasonality in occurrence of larvae were (1) the model that assumed four underlying trends related to large marine ecosystems, and (2) the one that assumed one common seasonal pattern for larvae occurrence throughout Europe.Such synchronies in larval occurrences suggest that environmental conditions relevant to bivalve larval survival are more or less similar at large spatial scales from 100s to 1000s of km. To unravel the underlying mechanisms for this synchronisation is of particular interest in the light of changing environmental conditions as the result of global climate change and the possible consequences for marine food webs and ecosystem services. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.