Search

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and North Atlantic tripole sea surface temperature (SST_tri) are important modes in the atmosphere and ocean over the North Atlantic, respectively. The link between the two is well‐known. However, this link weakened during 1980–2001, which is particularly pronounced in late winter and was not detected in early winter. This phenomenon has not been well revealed. The role of NAO in the above correlation changes was discussed. In late winter, a significant eastward shift (up to 20° longitude) of NAO south center during 1980–2001 was observed in both observation and CMIP6, accompanied by the eastward expansion of NAO north center. Spatial shift of the NAO forced the region of strong air‐sea interactions to shift and resulting in the collapse of NAO‐related SST_tri. These findings deepen our understanding of the NAO on the subseasonal scale. Plain Language Summary: A significant correlation between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the North Atlantic tripole sea surface temperature (SST_tri) is widely recognized. However, this study found that the correlation between the two was significantly weakened in late winter during 1980–2001 while no such change was detected in early winter. Therefore, this paper will focus on the late winter and discuss the role of NAO spatial structure in the above correlation changes. When the NAO south center is located over the North Atlantic, both observations and the climate models indicate that the corresponding North Atlantic SST shows a significant tripole pattern. However, during 1980–2001, the NAO south center shift significantly eastward from the North Atlantic toward Western Europe (up to 20° longitude). At the same time, the NAO north center expanded eastward significantly. The eastward shift of the NAO results in the significant eastward shift of the turbulent heat flux and wind stress anomalies. Shift in the region of strong air‐sea interaction led to the collapse of NAO‐related SST_tri. These findings deepen our understanding of the NAO on the subseasonal scale and also provide implications for subseasonal‐seasonal predictions of Eurasian climate extremes. Key Points: The link between NAO and North Atlantic tripole SST weakened obviously during 1980–2001 late winter, which was not detected in early winterThe eastward shift of ∼20° longitude in NAO south center forced the strong air‐sea interactions region to shift in observations and CMIP6NAO's spatial shift in late winter caused the changes in the link between NAO and North Atlantic tripole SST [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme high temperatures occur frequently over the densely populated Yangtze River basin (YRB) in China during summer, significantly impacting the local economic development and ecological system. However, accurate prediction of extreme high-temperature days in this region remains a challenge. Unfortunately, the Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) exhibits poor performance in this regard. Thus, based on the interannual increment approach, we develop a hybrid seasonal prediction model over the YRB (HMYRB) to improve the prediction of extreme high-temperature days in summer.The HMYRB relies on the following four predictors: the observed preceding April–May snowmelt in north western Europe; the snow depth in March over the central Siberian Plateau; the CFSv2-forecasted concurrent summer sea surface temperatures around the Maritime Continent; and the 200-hPa geopotential height over the Tibetan Plateau. The HMYRB indicates good capabilities in predicting the interannual variability and trend of extreme high-temperature days, with a markable correlation coefficient of 0.58 and a percentage of the same sign (PSS) of 76% during 1983–2015 in the one-year-out cross-validation. Additionally, the HMYRB maintains high PSS skill (86%) and robustness in the independent prediction period (2016–2022). Furthermore, the HMYRB shows a good performance for years with high occurrence of extreme high-temperature days, with a hit ratio of 40%. These predictors used in HMYRB are beneficial in terms of the prediction skill for the average daily maximum temperature in summer over the YRB, albeit with biases existing in the magnitude. Our study provides promising insights into the prediction of 2022-like hot extremes over the YRB in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the spatiotemporal variations of the summer frequency of daytime–nighttime compound extreme high-temperature events (FCEHEs) in the mid–high latitudes of Asia (MHA) from 1979 to 2014. Results show that FCEHE has shown an upward trend with fluctuations, especially in Mongolia–Baikal. The descending anomaly caused by the anomalous high pressure over Mongolia–Baikal results in reduced cloud cover, which increases solar radiation reaching the ground, favoring the higher FCEHE. This process is consistent during the daytime and nighttime periods, with relatively limited nighttime solar radiation, potentially compensated by the increased downward longwave radiation to sustain the extreme high temperatures. This benefit process is closely connected with two main factors: the increased sea ice in the Barents Sea during spring and the anomalously warm sea surface temperature (SST) in the Northwest Pacific during summer. The increased sea ice can affect the Eurasia (EU) teleconnection, while the warm SST affects the Pacific-Japan/East Asia–Pacific pattern (PJ/EAP). Subsequently, these factors further modulate the circulation anomalies and then FCEHE. Significance Statement: This study provides valuable insights into the spatiotemporal variations and the possible underlying mechanisms for change in the frequency of daytime–nighttime compound extreme high-temperature events (FCEHEs) in the mid–high latitudes of Asia. The spring sea ice anomalies over the Barents Sea and summer sea surface temperature anomalies in the Northwest Pacific affect the local anticyclonic circulation in Mongolia–Baikal through Eurasia (EU) and Pacific-Japan/East Asia–Pacific (PJ/EAP) patterns, respectively. The resulting descending anomaly and reduced cloud cover contribute to interannual variations of FCEHE, which is highly similar during the daytime and nighttime periods. During the nighttime, when the solar radiation is relatively limited, the increased downward longwave radiation may compensate to sustain extreme high temperatures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We used observational data and a long‐term piControl simulation from the Community Earth System Model Version 2 to investigate the influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) on the winter climate over the Tibetan Plateau. The results showed that changes in the phase of the PDO have a significant effect on winter temperatures and precipitation over the southern Tibetan Plateau. Changes in the sea surface temperature (SST) during the positive PDO can weaken the Walker circulation and increase the SST in the Indian Ocean. Our analyses of the moist static energy showed that warming of the tropical troposphere over the Indian Ocean caused by the increased SST has resulted in the horizontal advection of anomalous moist enthalpy by the climatological zonal winds, which was responsible for anomalous ascending motion over the Tibetan Plateau. The additional moisture budget suggests that enhanced vertical motion contributes to the increase in winter precipitation and related total cloud cover over the Tibetan Plateau, leading to the increase of snow depth. The increased total cloud cover and snow depth, in turn, reduces net surface shortwave radiation. The surface air temperature of the Tibetan Plateau is then decreased as a result of the reduction in the net surface shortwave radiation. The PDO therefore has an important modulating role in the interdecadal variability of the winter climate over the Tibetan Plateau. We therefore need to focus on changes in the PDO in research related to the decadal prediction of the climate over the Tibetan Plateau. Plain Language Summary: Under the background of global change, the climate of the Tibetan Plateau has undergone significant changes, and it has an important impact on the regional and global climate. Therefore, it is very important to find out the mechanisms of climate variabilities on the Tibetan Plateau. In this study, we aim to investigate the influences of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) on the winter climate of the Tibetan Plateau and the related physical mechanisms by using observational data and a long‐term piControl simulation from the Community Earth System Model Version 2. Results suggest that the PDO has an important modulating role in the interdecadal variability of the winter climate over the Tibetan Plateau. The positive PDO phase can increase winter precipitation and decrease the surface air temperature of the Tibetan Plateau. The related mechanisms are also investigated in this study. Key Points: The positive Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) can increase the precipitation and thereby decreasing the temperature in winter over the southern Tibetan PlateauThe horizontal advection of anomalous moist enthalpy is responsible for anomalous ascending motion and increased precipitationThe anomalous advection of zonal warm air is caused by warming of the tropical troposphere over the Indian Ocean due to the positive PDO [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the variations of the Walker Circulations during the Last Interglacial (LIG, ~ 130–115 ka BP) may advance our knowledge of climate change in an orbitally induced warmer world. Here we investigate the variations and the underpinning mechanisms of the Pacific Walker Circulation (PWC) and the Indian Ocean Walker Circulation (IWC) during the LIG, using the lig127k experiments from the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project Phase 4. Compared to the preindustrial, annual PWC is broadened by 3° and strengthened by 3.5% during the LIG, whereas annual IWC is narrowed by 3° and weakened by 17.2%. The antiphase change between annual PWC and IWC during the LIG is dominated by the change in boreal warm seasons (June–October), which is in turn closely tied to the changes in sea surface temperatures between the Indian Ocean and the western Pacific Ocean. Specifically, the models predict a general warming over the tropical Indian Ocean but cooling over the tropical western Pacific in boreal warm seasons during the LIG. This interbasin contrast results in enhanced sea-level pressure over the tropical western Pacific and decreased sea-level pressure over the tropical Indian Ocean, together with opposite changes in precipitation. The west-to-east sea-level pressure gradient contributes to anomalous low-level easterlies in the deep tropics. These changes result in an enhancement and broadening of the PWC, whereas a reverse change for the IWC. The proposed dominating role of interbasin contrast in temperature anomaly is further confirmed by a linear baroclinic model and an atmospheric general circulation model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

From summer to autumn in 2022, a severe drought lasted in southern China, posing serious effects on economic growth and ecological systems. This study explored the atmospheric circulations accounting for this persistent drought event. It shows that the drought in southern China during the summer of 2022 was strongly linked to the divergence of water vapor flux and descending motions, which were respectively caused by the anomalous anticyclone over the western North Pacific and the northward movement of the East Asian subtropical jet (EASJ). Differently, the atmospheric background responsible for the sustained drought in autumn is manly featured by a cyclonic circulation anomaly over the region from the Bay of Bengal to the South China Sea, which led to decreased moisture and descending motions in southern China. Further investigation suggests that the rarely strong surface warming over northern Eurasia and the extreme La Niña-like pattern over the tropical Pacific jointly resulted in the anomalous anticyclone over the western North Pacific and the northward shift of the EASJ in the summer of 2022, while the cyclonic circulation anomaly prevailing over the region from the Bay of Bengal to the South China Sea in autumn was largely attributed to the extremely negative anomalies of the tropical Indian Ocean sea surface temperature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Evolution of East Asian monsoonal precipitation across the Last Interglacial (LIG) remains controversial, owing to the discrepancies between various proxies and their low temporal resolution. Through a transient high-resolution global climate simulation covering the interval of 130–120 ka, we illustrate a long-term increasing (decreasing) trend in summer precipitation over south China (northeast Asia) during the LIG (i.e. 130–120 ka). The out-of-phase precipitation evolution across latitudes were coherently regulated by the weakened monsoonal circulation, southward moved western North Pacific high, and southward displaced East Asian westerly jet from the early to late LIG. These atmospheric circulation variations were in turn determined by sea surface temperature anomalies over the Pacific and the propagation of extratropical Rossby waves originating from North Africa. Our results may provide important insights for reconciling discrepancies between precipitation proxies during the LIG and for precipitation behavior in a warmer-than-present world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reconstruction and observational studies imply a potential linkage of moisture and precipitation change in arid central Asia and monsoonal East Asia, in which the evolution of moisture and precipitation in central Asia is out of phase with that in northern China but in phase with that in southern China. In order to ascertain whether there is a robust linkage between the changes in climate in Asian arid regions and monsoon regions and to elucidate the underlying dynamic mechanisms, we analyzed the Last Millennium Reanalysis dataset and outputs from the Community Earth System Model Last Millennium Ensemble (CESM-LME). The results indicate a significant decadal linkage between precipitation changes in central Asia's arid region and the Asian monsoon region during the last millennium, which is primarily driven by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). In spring, the positive IPO could enhance westerlies over the Mediterranean Sea and to its east, which could transport more water vapor and cause increased precipitation over central Asia. In summer, the positive IPO is accompanied by a weakened Asian monsoon and southward Asian subtropical westerly jet, which can lead to increased (decreased) summer precipitation over southern China (over northern China and South Asia). The IPO plays a dominant role in connecting the decadal variations in precipitation between arid central Asia and monsoonal Asia by modulating the precipitation of their respective major rainy seasons. Model results suggest that this decadal linkage stems entirely from the internal variability present in the CESM-LME control and all single-forcing simulations. Changes in external forcing factors do not alter this inherent linkage caused by the IPO. Moreover, based on analyses of the aridity index and soil moisture content, this relationship of precipitation variation also causes a similar decadal linkage of moisture changes in central Asia and monsoonal Asia. The differences in the multi-centennial-scale moisture and precipitation variations in the Asian arid region and the monsoon region between the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age are also likely caused by IPO-like sea surface temperature anomalies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigated the contribution of Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) on decadal variations of the dominant mode of summer precipitation over eastern China during 1981–2020. The spatial pattern of leading empirical orthogonal function mode has changed from a dipole pattern with negative anomalies over Jianghuai Valley and positive anomalies over southern China during 1981–2001 to the Yangtze River Valley (YRV) pattern during 2002–2020. Spring SIC over Kara Sea was significantly related to the dipole pattern, through influencing Eurasian snow depth. The associated anomalous temperature gradient and atmospheric circulation affected the meridional displacement of the East Asian subtropical jet, which favored the dipole pattern of summer precipitation. For the YRV pattern, spring SIC over Greenland Sea has an impact on the sea surface temperature anomalies in the western Pacific by triggering a wave train that influenced the precipitation through the establishment of the Pacific–Japan pattern. The results of this study may provide reference value for the prediction of summer precipitation over eastern China. Plain Language Summary: As Eastern China has a high level of national economic development and experiences significant variations in summer precipitation, it is crucial to comprehend the patterns and trends of rainfall. However, it is challenging to accurately predict the decadal variations of precipitation due to the intricate physical processes involved. Therefore, we consider exploring the causes of the decadal variations from the perspective of Arctic SIC. The study demonstrates the dominant mode of eastern China summer precipitation (ECSP) undergone a decadal variation at the early 2000s, and spring SIC over Kara Sea and Greenland Sea play great impacts on it. These results may have potential implications for ECSP forecasting. Key Points: Dominant mode of the summer precipitation over eastern China (ECSP) experienced a decadal variation at the early 2000sSpring sea ice concentration (SIC) over Kara Sea contributed to the dipole pattern of ECSP by influencing the Eurasian snow depth during 1981–2001Spring SIC over Greenland Sea impacted the Yangtze River Valley pattern through the western Pacific sea surface temperature during 2002–2020 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The decadal variability of extreme high temperature (EHT) in the mid and highlatitudes of continental Asia (MHLCA) and associated mechanisms were investigated. Observational analysis indicated that, after removing global warming, the first leading mode of the EHT events showed a meridional dipole pattern and had significant decadal variability. During the periods 1980–1994 and 2012–2019 (1995–2011), EHT events were more frequent and stronger (less frequent and weaker) in western-central Siberia than normal, whereas they were less frequent and weaker (more frequent and stronger) in the wide area to the south of Lake Baikal. Further Observational and CESM (Community Earth System Model) results based analysis suggested that decadal change in air–sea interaction in the North Atlantic play an important role in shaping the decadal variability of EHT events in MHLCA. On decadal timescales, meridional negative–positive–negative sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the North Atlantic and their coupled positive North Atlantic Oscillation can trigger stronger wave activity flux and cause a significant anticyclonic–cyclonic teleconnection wave train in the troposphere over the mid and high latitudes of the Eurasian continent. As a result, an anomalous high-pressure center is evident in western-central Siberia, and thereby reducing total cloud cover and causing stronger solar heating. Thus, EHT events become more frequent and stronger. On the contrary, for the areas south of Lake Baikal, EHT events are weakened by corresponding cyclonic circulation anomalies. Additionally, the CAM5 (Community Atmosphere Model version 5) experiments suggested more important driving role of the decadal North Atlantic tripole SST anomalies in the abovementioned processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Advances in Atmospheric Sciences is the property of Springer Nature and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The decadal variability of the summer extreme precipitation over southern China (EPSC) is remarkable, especially for the significant decadal enhancement after the 1990s. The study documented that the summer sea surface temperature (SST) over the North Atlantic and spring sea ice concentration (SIC) over the East Siberian Sea can significantly affect the EPSC. The summer SST over the North Atlantic influences the low-pressure cyclone in the western Pacific by modulating the SST over the tropical Pacific, thus affecting EPSC. A decrease in the SIC of the East Siberian Sea induces a negative Arctic Oscillation, which induces the increased SST over northwest Pacific and the anomalous cyclone over there, in turn, affecting EPSC. Both predictors have a quasi-period of 10–14 years, which provides useful predictive signals for EPSC. The leading 7-year SST and the leading 5-year SIC are chosen to establish the prediction model based on the decadal increment method, which can well predict the EPSC, especially for the shift in the early 1990s. These results provide a clue to the limited predictability of decadal-scale extreme climate events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Air pollution of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is severe in winter and causes vast premature deaths in north China. Many previous studies have concerned winter‐mean haze conditions and identified some useful climate factors. However, obvious differences in the number of haze days also existed between December and January (HDJ‐D) that lacked of understandings. The HDJ‐D maximum was 6.6 days, which occurred between December 2005 and January 2006, accounting for more than 45% of the monthly mean number of haze days in these 2 months. Differences of large‐scale atmospheric circulations were distributed like a Rossby wave pattern in mid‐troposphere, with centres in the west of Europe (+), the north to the Caspian Sea (−) and north China (+). Associated meteorological conditions in north China resulted in more adverse ventilation conditions and stronger chemical productions, and thus larger number of haze days in January than in December. In addition, significant relationships between HDJ‐D and three preceding climate factors during 1979–2018 were also revealed, including August–September–October sea ice over the Laptev Sea and the north of the Kara Sea (correlation coefficient = −0.53), November snow depth in eastern Europe and western Siberia (correlation coefficient = −0.44) and sea surface temperature over the Mid‐Atlantic Ridge (correlation coefficient = −0.48). Abundant analyses, basing on the observation data, large‐ensemble climate simulations and atmospheric chemical simulations, all reproduced the influences of each climate factor on large‐scale atmospheric circulations and local meteorological conditions associated with HDJ‐D changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Deciphering the Meiyu behavior during the Last Interglacial (∼127 ka; LIG) may deepen our understanding of drought and flooding events over East Asia in a warmer‐than‐present world induced by Earth's orbit. Based on dynamical downscaling simulations, we suggested a 15‐ and 30‐day earlier onset and retreat of the Meiyu during the LIG relative to preindustrial, respectively, leading to a shortened Meiyu season. Meantime, extreme precipitation in the Meiyu season became stronger and occurred more frequently. Intensified monsoonal circulation, poleward‐located western North Pacific subtropical high, and poleward shift of East Asian westerly jet during the LIG provided favorable moisture conditions for earlier onset and retreat of the Meiyu. The variations of atmospheric circulations were further regulated by the joint effect of the three oceans and diabatic heating over Tibetan Plateau. Our results highlight an important role of Earth's orbit in the Meiyu and imply more flooding events in a warmer world. Plain Language Summary: The record‐breaking Meiyu in 2020 reemphasizes the importance of investigating the evolution of the rainy season in East Asia. This study reveals the response of the Meiyu to changes in the Earth's orbit during the Last Interglacial (LIG, 130–115 ka)—the warmest interglacial of the past 800 ka and a warmer world comparable to the low emission scenarios at the end of the 21st century. The Meiyu season occurred and ended earlier compared with the present day, and the duration was shortened. Additionally, more frequent and intense extreme precipitation events occurred in the Meiyu season during the LIG. The enhanced East Asian summer monsoonal flow, strengthened western North Pacific subtropical high, and poleward shift of the East Asian westerly jet in June provided favorable conditions for the earlier occurrence and termination of the Meiyu during the LIG. Moreover, changes in the sea surface temperature over the three oceans can jointly influence the Meiyu via triggering Kelvin waves, Rossby waves, and teleconnections by atmospheric circulations, with the contribution from the diabatic heating over the Tibetan Plateau. The results of this study help us better understand the evolution of the rainy season over East Asia in a warmer world. Key Points: Earlier onset and shortened duration of Meiyu season during the Last Interglacial (LIG)Stronger and more frequent extreme precipitation events occurred in Meiyu season during the LIGIntensified monsoonal circulation, poleward‐located subtropical high and westerly jets led to changes in Meiyu during the LIG [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A severe persistent drought occurred in South China during autumn–winter 2020/2021, causing enormous economic losses and severe water shortage in South China. Focusing on this event, this study analyzed the climate anomalies associated with this event, and investigated the underlying mechanisms as well as their relationship with the leading modes of the autumn and winter precipitation in eastern China. The results suggest that the drought in South China during autumn 2020 is mainly attributed to the water vapor divergence anomalies induced by an anomalous anticyclone over eastern China and an anomalous cyclone over the South China Sea, which are caused by an anomalous Eurasian atmospheric wave‐train triggered by the negative sea ice anomalies in the Barents Sea‐Kara Sea region and a La Niña‐like condition in the tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures, respectively. The continued drought in South China during winter 2020/2021 is mainly attributed to the water vapor divergence anomalies induced by an anomalous cyclone over the western North Pacific, which is caused by the continued La Niña‐like condition. The mechanisms of the first two leading modes of autumn precipitation in eastern China both contributed to the drought in South China during autumn 2020, whereas the mechanisms of the first leading mode of winter precipitation in eastern China played an important role in causing the drought in South China during winter 2020/2021. Numerical experiments demonstrate important impact of the ENSO and Arctic sea ice anomalies on the East Asian climate anomalies during autumn–winter 2020/2021. Key Points: The drought in South China during autumn 2020 is attributed to combined effect of El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Arctic sea ice anomaliesThe drought in South China during winter 2020/2021 is mainly attributed to the La Niña‐like conditionNumerical experiments demonstrate important impact of ENSO and Arctic sea ice on East Asian climate anomalies during autumn–winter 2020/2021 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Severe sandstorms reoccurred in the spring of 2021 after an absence for more than 10 years in North China. The dust source area, located in Mongolia, suffered destructive cooling and warming in early and late winter, which loosened the land. A lack of precipitation, excessive snow melt and strong evaporation resulted in dry soil and exiguous spring vegetation. A super-strong Mongolian cyclone developed on the bare and loose ground, and easily blew and transported large amounts of sand particles into North China. Furthermore, top-ranking anomalies (sea ice shift in the Barents and Kara Sea, and sea surface temperatures in the east Pacific and northwest Atlantic) were found to induce the aforementioned tremendous climate anomalies in the dust source area. Analyses, based on large-ensemble Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, yield results identical to the reanalysis data. Thus, the climate variabilities at different latitudes and synoptic disturbances jointly facilitated the strongest spring sandstorm over the last decade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, interannual and interdecadal variations in the extreme high-temperature event (EHE) frequency over northern Asia (NA) and the associated possible mechanisms are explored. On an interannual time scale, the first two empirical orthogonal function modes of the NA EHE frequency exhibit a meridional dipole pattern (EOF1) and diagonal tripolar pattern (EOF2), respectively. The higher NA EHE frequency is related to anomalous local highs, reduced mid- to low clouds, and more solar radiation. The warmer ground further heats the overlying atmosphere through longwave radiation and sensible heat. The warm temperature advection in the lower troposphere and the drier soil conditions also favor higher EHE frequency. Further analysis reveals that the EOF1 mode is related to the Polar–Eurasian teleconnection pattern (POL), while the EOF2 mode is associated with North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Pacific–Japan/East Asia–Pacific pattern (PJ/EAP). The fitted EHE frequency based on the atmospheric factors (POL, NAO, and PJ/EAP) can explain the interannual variation in the regionally averaged EHE frequency by 33.8%. Furthermore, three anomalous sea surface temperature (SST) patterns over the North Atlantic–Mediterranean Sea region and around the Maritime Continent are associated with the two EHE modes by intensifying the pronounced atmospheric teleconnections. Analysis on the simulation of five models in the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project experiment further confirms the impact of the pronounced SST patterns on the POL, NAO and PJ/EAP. In addition, NA EHE frequency experienced a significant interdecadal increase around the mid-1990s, which could be associated with the phase shift of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and long-term global warming trend. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous modelling and observational studies have shown discrepancies in the interannual relationship of winter surface air temperature (SAT) between Arctic and East Asia, stimulating the debate about whether Arctic change can influence midlatitude climate. This study uses two sets of coordinated experiments (EXP1 and EXP2) from six different atmospheric general circulation models. Both EXP1 and EXP2 consist of 130 ensemble members, each of which in EXP1 (EXP2) was forced by the same observed daily varying sea ice and daily varying (daily climatological) sea surface temperature (SST) for 1982–2014 but with different atmospheric initial conditions. Large spread exists among ensemble members in simulating the Arctic–East Asian SAT relationship. Only a fraction of ensemble members can reproduce the observed deep Arctic warming–cold continent pattern which extends from surface to upper troposphere, implying the important role of atmospheric internal variability. The mechanisms of deep Arctic warming and shallow Arctic warming are further distinguished. Arctic warming aloft is caused primarily by poleward moisture transport, which in conjunction with the surface warming coupled with sea ice melting constitutes the surface-amplified deep Arctic warming throughout the troposphere. These processes associated with the deep Arctic warming may be related to the forcing of remote SST when there is favorable atmospheric circulation such as Rossby wave train propagating from the North Atlantic into the Arctic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Advances in Atmospheric Sciences is the property of Springer Nature and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This study investigates the relationship and underlying mechanisms between the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) and Arctic sea ice. The results reveal that the preceding December sea ice over the Laptev Sea plays an important role in the formation of positive IOD conditions during April–June (AMJ). In years with positive December Laptev sea ice anomalies, the zonal wavenumber-1 (ZWN1) planetary wave component is stimulated at middle and high latitudes. The high-latitude ZWN1 propagates upward to the stratosphere and downward to the troposphere in December, affects the atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic, and further leads to a warm sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) that persists until the following February. The midlatitude ZWN1 propagates upward to the stratosphere in January and downward to the troposphere in February, contributing to the positive 200-hPa geopotential height anomaly (GPHA) in the subtropical Atlantic. The ascending anomaly induced by the warm SSTA and the positive 200-hPa GPHA in the subtropical Atlantic in February are favorable for effective Rossby wave source formation and stimulate an atmospheric wave train that forms an anomalous cyclone over the northern Arabian Sea, which contributes to enhanced convection over northern India, stimulating an anomalous anticyclone over East India and leading to reduced convection over the northeastern Indian Ocean in March. The reduced convection over the northeastern Indian Ocean may lead to strengthened equatorial easterly winds and further contribute to positive IOD conditions in AMJ. These findings indicate that December Laptev sea ice may contribute to AMJ IOD conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the standardized precipitation evaporation index (SPEI) and empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, this article presents that the primary mode (i.e., a monosign pattern) of drought over Northeast China (NEC) in early spring (February‐March‐April, FMA) and late summer (July‐August‐September, JAS) shows an out‐of‐phase decadal change, which is characterized with a wetting polarity in FMA while a drying polarity in JAS approximately after 2000 as compared to the counterparts before that time. Such an out‐of‐phase decadal change is generally supported by the decadal changes in atmospheric circulations. Compared to the former period, during the latter period, the equivalent barotropic cyclonic (anticyclonic) anomalies dominate northeastern Asia and an anomalous ascending occupies NEC in FMA (JAS), which help to alleviate (aggravate) drought over NEC. In addition, decreases in water vapor transport toward the NEC region act in the aggravation of drought in JAS, while the variation of drought in FMA is not closely connected to the change in water vapor transport. Further analyses indicate that the shifts of the sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical and mid‐high latitude Atlantic Ocean from a cold phase to a warm phase also play a role in the decadal change of drought in FMA and JAS, respectively, through their influences on the above atmospheric circulations with the aid of downstream propagation of wave trains. Hence, the seasonal dependence of the Atlantic SST and atmospheric circulations contributes to the out‐of‐phase decadal change of drought in NEC. Key Points: Drought over Northeast China (NEC) in early spring (FMA) and late summer (JAS) underwent an out‐of‐phase decadal change around 2000Such an out‐of‐phase decadal change in drought is generally supported by the decadal changes in atmospheric circulation backgroundWarming of the tropical (mid‐high latitude) Atlantic SST also plays a role in the decadal change of drought in FMA (JAS) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study explores the spatial–temporal variations in summer extreme precipitation over Southwestern China (SWC). The frequency of summer extreme precipitation (FEP) has exhibited strong interannual variation with slightly strengthened intensity in recent decades. The associated anomalous water vapour transport mainly originates from northern China, the Indian Ocean, the South China Sea and the Northwest Pacific. The high FEP over SWC is generally associated with the strong Eurasian (EU) pattern and the pattern that is similar to Pacific‐Japan (PJ) teleconnection. The results further indicate that the anomalous May Arctic sea ice concentration and the sea surface temperature anomaly over the Northwest Pacific play an important role in the variation of FEP over SWC. On the one hand, the reduction in Arctic sea ice concentration intensifies Rossby wave propagation and then stimulates the formation of EU teleconnection pattern. The associated anomalous northeasterly integrated water vapour transport and high‐level westerly anomalies can result in strong interannual changes in FEP over SWC. On the other hand, the sea surface temperature anomaly over the Northwest Pacific can induce an anomalous PJ‐like pattern, and the associated anomalous southwesterly water vapour transport also exerts an impact on the change in FEP over SWC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the first two leading modes of the interannual variability of frequency of snowfall events (FSE) over China in the winter during 1986–2018. The positive phase of the first leading mode (EOF1) is mainly characterized by positive FSE anomalies in northeastern–northwestern China and negative FSE anomalies in the three-river-source region. In contrast, the positive phase of the second leading mode (EOF2) is mainly characterized by positive FSE anomalies in central-eastern China (CEC). EOF1 is affected by the synoptic-scale wave activity over the midlatitudes of the East Asian continent, where active synoptic-scale wave activity over the midlatitudes may cause increased FSE over northeastern–northwestern China, and vice versa. In a winter of a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, an anomalous deep cold low may occur over Siberia, which may induce increased meridional air temperature gradient, increased atmospheric baroclinicity, and hence increased FSE over the midlatitudes of the East Asian continent. The EOF2 is affected by the interaction between anomalous northerly cold advection and anomalous southerly water vapor transport over CEC. The positive phase of EOF2 is associated with negative sea ice anomalies in the Barents Sea–Kara Sea region and negative sea surface temperature anomalies in the central-eastern tropical Pacific. Reduced sea ice in the Barents Sea–Kara Sea during January–February may cause increased northerly cold advection over CEC, while a La Niña–like condition during January may induce southerly water vapor transport anomalies over CEC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the past 40 years, the global annual mean surface temperature has experienced a nonuniform warming, differing from the spatially uniform warming simulated by the forced responses of large multimodel ensembles to anthropogenic forcing. Rather, it exhibits significant asymmetry between the Arctic and Antarctic, with intermittent and spatially varying warming trends along the Northern Hemisphere (NH) midlatitudes and a slight cooling in the tropical eastern Pacific. In particular, this "wavy" pattern of temperature changes over the NH midlatitudes features strong cooling over Eurasia in boreal winter. Here, we show that these nonuniform features of surface temperature changes are likely tied together by tropical eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs), via a global atmospheric teleconnection. Using six reanalyses, we find that this teleconnection can be consistently obtained as a leading circulation mode in the past century. This tropically driven teleconnection is associated with a Pacific SST pattern resembling the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO), and hereafter referred to as the IPO-related bipolar teleconnection (IPO-BT). Further, two paleo-reanalysis reconstruction datasets show that the IPO-BT is a robust recurrent mode over the past 400 and 2000 years. The IPO-BT mode may thus serve as an important internal mode that regulates high-latitude climate variability on multidecadal time scales, favoring a warming (cooling) episode in the Arctic accompanied by cooling (warming) over Eurasia and the Southern Ocean (SO). Thus, the spatial nonuniformity of recent surface temperature trends may be partially explained by the enhanced appearance of the IPO-BT mode by a transition of the IPO toward a cooling phase in the eastern Pacific in the past decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the interannual variability of winter precipitation over the Three River Source (TRS) region in China based on precipitation observations collected at stations in the TRS region and reanalysis datasets for the period of 1980–2015. The results suggest that the TRS winter precipitation has distinct interannual variability with discordant trends in different months, that is, an increasing trend is found in November and February, a decreasing trend is found in other winter months, and interannual variations in precipitation are different in different months. The mechanisms for the interannual variation in monthly precipitation over the TRS region are significantly different in different winter months. The interannual variability of TRS precipitation in November is modulated by an anomalous westerly water vapour transport (WVT) branch. This anomalous WVT branch is related to a North Atlantic‐Europe‐Tibetan Plateau (NA‐E‐TP) wave‐train that originates in the North Atlantic due to the ocean–atmosphere interaction. In December, a circum‐global teleconnection (CGT) wave‐train can induce anomalous westerly WVT in the TRS region, resulting in increased precipitation there. This CGT wave‐train is triggered by warm SST anomalies in the central‐eastern tropical Pacific associated with the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The interannual variability of TRS precipitation in January and February is affected by southwesterly WVT anomalies over the TRS region, which are associated with a southeastward propagating wave‐train over Eurasia caused by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). In March, the interannual variability of TRS precipitation is modulated by the leading mode of the Eurasian circulation that resembles the Scandinavian (EU1) pattern, which can cause anomalous southwesterly WVT in the TRS region. In winter, the characteristics of sea surface temperature anomalies, weather systems, and atmospheric circulations associated with interannual variations of monthly precipitation in the TRS region are different for individual winter months. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

North China experiences severe haze pollution in early winter, resulting in many premature deaths and considerable economic losses. The number of haze days in early winter (December and January) in North China (HDNC) increased rapidly after 2010 but declined slowly before 2010, reflecting a trend reversal. Global warming and emissions were two fundamental drivers of the long-term increasing trend of haze, but no studies have focused on this trend reversal. The autumn sea surface temperature (SST) in the Pacific and Atlantic, Eurasian snow cover and central Siberian soil moisture, which exhibited completely opposite trends before and after 2010, might have close relationships with identical trends of meteorological conditions related to haze pollution in North China. Numerical experiments with a fixed emission level confirmed the physical relationships between the climate drivers and HDNC during both decreasing and increasing periods. These external drivers induced a larger decreasing trend of HDNC than the observations, and combined with the persistently increasing trend of anthropogenic emissions, resulted in a realistic, slowly decreasing trend. However, after 2010, the increasing trends driven by these climate divers and human emissions jointly led to a rapid increase in HDNC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the long-term reanalysis datasets and the multivariate copula method, this study reveals that the frequency of summer hot drought events (SHDEs) over northeastern China (NEC) shows interdecadal variations during 1925–2010. It is revealed that the summer sea surface temperature (SST) over the North Atlantic has a significant positive correlation with the frequency of SHDEs over NEC on the decadal time scale, indicating a potential influence of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). Further analyses indicate that during the positive phases of the AMO, the warming SST over the North Atlantic can trigger a stationary Rossby wave originating from the North Atlantic, which splits into two wave trains propagating along two different routes. One is a zonally orientated wave train that resembles the Silk Road pattern, whereas the other is an arching wave train that resembles the polar–Eurasian pattern. A negative (positive) phase of the Silk Road pattern (polar–Eurasian pattern) may result in the weakened westerly wind along the jet stream, the downward vertical motion, and the anomalous positive geopotential center over NEC, providing favorable conditions for precipitation deficiency and high temperature and resulting in increased SHDEs. Thus, the Silk Road pattern and the polar–Eurasian pattern serve as linkages between the AMO and SHDEs over northeastern China in summer on the interdecadal time scale. Model simulations from CAM4 perturbed with warmer SST in the North Atlantic show precipitation deficiency and high temperature conditions over northeastern China in summer, supporting the potential impacts of the North Atlantic SST on SHDEs over northeastern China. The results suggest that the phase of the AMO should be taken into account in the decadal prediction of SHDEs over northeastern China in summer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impact of North American (NA) snow cover on the Northern Hemisphere climate has drawn increasing attention in recent years. This study reveals a negative relationship between NA snow cover in December and surface air temperature (SAT) over the midlatitude Asia in the following January. The results show that, in December, the extensive snow cover decreases SAT over NA via local diabatic cooling, which further intensifies the Atlantic jet stream by enlarging the meridional gradient of the 1,000‐ to 300‐hPa layer thickness, especially along 40°N. Meanwhile, we found negative sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the Western North Atlantic and enhanced transient eddy activity over the Eastern North Atlantic due to anomalous net energy conversion from the mean flow. In January, a zonally oriented dipole of transient eddy anomalies straddles the North Atlantic, with the negative–positive (west–east) anomaly centres attributing to local oceanic cooling and the persistence of the eddy–mean flow interaction, respectively. Such dipole of transient eddy activity in turn favours the downstream development of the Atlantic jet stream. Besides, the changes in surface turbulent heat flux over the North Atlantic trigger a Rossby wave train that propagates across Europe and towards the Far East. Coincident with the strengthened Siberian High and the accelerated East Asian jet stream in January, SAT decreases over the midlatitude Asia. Hence, our analysis indicates that December NA snow cover could potentially be exploited for subseasonal predictability over Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examined the interdecadal variations in the relationship between the East Asian water vapor transport (WVT) and the central and eastern tropical Pacific (CETP) sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in January during 1951–2018, focusing on the meridional WVT over East Asia, which is critical for the East Asian winter precipitation. The results indicate that before the 1980s, an increased southerly WVT over East Asia was generally associated with warm SST anomalies in the CETP during January, whereas, after the mid-1980s, an increased southerly WVT over East Asia was mostly associated with cold SST anomalies in the central tropical Pacific during January. The underlying mechanisms are discussed based on a comparison on the climate anomalies associated with the East Asian meridional WVT between the periods of 1951–79 and 1986–2018. During 1951–79, the meridional WVT over East Asia was mainly modulated by the Pacific–East Asian (PEA) teleconnection, which would induce an anomalous southerly WVT over East Asia corresponding to warm SST anomalies in the CETP. Whereas, during 1986–2018, the connection between the PEA teleconnection and the East Asian meridional WVT was weakened. The connection among the CETP SSTs, the anomalous zonal circulation over the North Pacific, and the East Asian meridional WVT was enhanced. Additionally, the connection among the CETP SSTs, the circumglobal teleconnection in the Northern Hemisphere, and the East Asian meridional WVT was enhanced. The above two enhanced connections opposed the effect of the PEA teleconnection and would induce an anomalous southerly WVT over East Asia corresponding to cold SST anomalies in the central tropical Pacific. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Northeast China (NEC) has sustained economic losses in recent years because of extreme precipitation events. Despite many efforts, it remains very difficult to predict these extreme events. In this study, we documented the characteristics of extreme precipitation days (EPD) over NEC and established a seasonal prediction model using a year-to-year increment (DY) approach. The results show that most of the EPD over NEC occurred during midsummer, along with large values concentrated over the Greater and Lesser Khingan Mountains and Changbai Mountain. Two variables—the preceding early spring soil moisture DY over central Asia and the sea surface temperature DY in the tropical Atlantic Ocean—were used to construct the statistical model to predict the EPD DY over NEC. These two factors influenced the EPD by modulating the moisture transport over NEC. Cross-validation tests for the period from 1962 to 2016 and independent hindcasts for the period from 1997 to 2016 indicated that the two variables gave good predictions of the EPD over NEC. The observed and predicted year-to-year increments in EPD were well correlated, with a correlation coefficient of 0.65 for the period from 1962 to 2016 in the cross-validation test. In addition, the EPD DY covaried coherently with the midsummer precipitation amount DY over NEC, and those two predictors also gave good predictions for the midsummer precipitation amount over NEC. The correlation coefficient is 0.68 between the observed and predicted year-to-year increment in the amount of midsummer precipitation from 1962 to 2016 in a cross-validation test. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Haze pollution is among the most serious disasters in the North China Plain, dramatically damaging human health and the social economy. The frequency of haze events in February typically varies from the number of haze days in the winter. To improve the understanding of haze pollution in February, this study not only showed the large-scale atmospheric circulations associated with the variation in the haze, but also analyzed its connection with Arctic sea ice. The observational and large ensemble model results both illustrated that the preceding increase in the early-winter Chukchi Sea ice might intensify the February haze pollution. The accumulated sea ice over the Chukchi Sea resulted in a steeper meridional sea surface temperature gradient and a significant and persistent westerly thermal wind. In February, the responsive pattern in the atmosphere developed into a Rossby wave–like pattern, linking the Chukchi Sea ice and the February haze pollution. Modulating by the induced large-scale atmospheric circulations, the horizontal and vertical atmospheric ventilation conditions and the hygroscopic growth conditions enhanced the frequency of haze pollution events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The boreal spring Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) has a significant impact on the spring and summer climate in China. This study evaluates the capability of the NCEP's Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), in predicting the boreal spring AAO for the period 1983-2015. The results indicate that CFSv2 has poor skill in predicting the spring AAO, failing to predict the zonally symmetric spatial pattern of the AAO, with an insignificant correlation of 0.02 between the predicted and observed AAO Index (AAOI). Considering the interannual increment approach can amplify the prediction signals, we firstly establish a dynamical-statistical model to improve the interannual increment of the AAOI (DY AAOI), with two predictors of CFSv2-forecasted concurrent spring sea surface temperatures and observed preceding autumn sea ice. This dynamical-statistical model demonstrates good capability in predicting DY AAOI, with a significant correlation coefficient of 0.58 between the observation and prediction during 1983-2015 in the two-year-out cross-validation. Then, we obtain an improved AAOI by adding the improved DY AAOI to the preceding observed AAOI. The improved AAOI shows a significant correlation coefficient of 0.45 with the observed AAOI during 1983-2015. Moreover, the unrealistic atmospheric response to March-April-May sea ice in CFSv2 may be the possible cause for the failure of CFSv2 to predict the AAO. This study gives new clues regarding AAO prediction and short-term climate prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recently, early winter haze pollution in the North China Plain has been serious and disastrous, dramatically damaging human health and the social economy. In this study, we emphasized the close connection between the number of haze days in early winter in the North China Plain and the September–October sea ice in the west of the Beaufort Sea (R=0.51) via both observational analyses and numerical experiments. Due to efficient radiative cooling, the responses of atmospheric circulations partially manifested as reductions of surface wind speed over the Beaufort Sea and Gulf of Alaska, resulting in a warmer sea surface in the subsequent November. The sea surface temperature anomalies over the Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska acted as a bridge. The warmer sea surface efficiently heated the above air and led to suitable atmospheric backgrounds to enhance the potential of haze weather (e.g., a weaker East Asian jet stream and a Rossby wave-like train propagated from North China and the Sea of Japan, through the Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska, to the Cordillera Mountains). Near the surface, the weakening sea level pressure gradient stimulated anomalous southerlies over the coastal area of China and brought about a calm and moist environment for haze formation. The thermal inversion was also enhanced to restrict the downward transportation of clear and dry upper air. Thus, the horizontal and vertical dispersion were both limited, and the fine particles were apt to accumulate and cause haze pollution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the climatic condition and synoptic regimes of two intense snowfall events (ISEs) in central eastern China (CEC) during January 2018, focusing on the mechanisms of northerly cold advection and southerly water vapor transport. The northerly cold advections invading CEC were associated with a strengthened Siberian High, which could be partially attributed to an influence of reduced sea ice in the Kara Sea‐Barents Sea during November 2017 to January 2018 on a reduced meridional temperature gradient between the midlatitudinal Eurasia and Arctic regions. The southerly water vapor transport contributing to ISEs was associated with a zonal dipole pattern in the atmosphere, which was characterized by an anomalous anticyclone over the western North Pacific and an anomalous low over the Tibetan Plateau and India. The La Niña condition provided a climatic condition for an anomalous anticyclone persisting over the western North Pacific during January 2018, which was influenced by a strengthened convection over the western tropical Pacific and influenced by the air‐sea interaction over the central‐northern Pacific. The anomalous low over the Tibetan Plateau and India was associated with active eastward propagating synoptic‐scale waves originating from the midlatitudinal North Atlantic. The implication of aforementioned climatic conditions on climate variability was further discussed. Our results suggest that a reduced sea ice in the Kara Sea during the preceding late autumn and a concurrent La Niña‐like condition may contribute to an increased frequency of ISEs in CEC during winter on the interannual time scale. Key Points: The climatic condition of cold advections and water vapor transport were analyzed for two intense snowfall events in eastern ChinaThe reduced Arctic sea ice and La Niña condition provided a climate condition for cold advections and water vapor transport, respectivelyThe sea ice and ENSO may exert an impact on the interannual variability of intense snowfall events in eastern China [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relationship between the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) and East Asian summer monsoon/precipitation has been documented in many studies. However, the precursor signals of summer precipitation in the TIO sea surface temperature (SST), which is important for climate prediction, have drawn little attention. This study identified a strong relationship between early-spring TIO SST and subsequent early-summer precipitation in Northeast China (NEC) since the late 1980s. For 1961-1986, the correlations between early-spring TIO SST and early-summer NEC precipitation were statistically insignificant; for 1989-2014, they were positively significant. Since the late 1980s, the early-spring positive TIO SST anomaly was generally followed by a significant anomalous anticyclone over Japan; that facilitated anomalous southerly winds over NEC, conveying more moisture from the North Pacific. Further analysis indicated that an early TIO SST anomaly showed robust persistence into early summer. However, the early-summer TIO SST anomaly displayed a more significant influence on simultaneous atmospheric circulation and further affected NEC precipitation since the late 1980s. In 1989-2014, the early-summer Hadley and Ferrell cell anomalies associated with simultaneous TIO SST anomaly were much more significant and extended further north to mid-latitudes, which provided a dynamic foundation for the TIO-mid-latitude connection. Correspondingly, the TIO SST anomaly could lead to significant divergence anomalies over the Mediterranean. The advections of vorticity by the divergent component of the flow effectively acted as a Rossby wave source. Thus, an apparent Rossby wave originated from the Mediterranean and propagated east to East Asia; that further influenced the NEC precipitation through modulation to the atmospheric circulation (e.g., surface wind, moisture, vertical motion). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observations show that the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) experienced an interdecadal weakening in the mid-1980s. This is evident for all members of the EAWM system (i.e., East Asian trough, upper-tropospheric jet stream, and lower-tropospheric monsoon circulation). Here, we investigate the relative contributions of natural (volcanic aerosols and solar variability) and anthropogenic [greenhouse gases (GHGs) and anthropogenic aerosols] forcings to this interdecadal weakening using multiple coupled models within phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The results indicate that in the midtroposphere, the increased GHG concentrations play an important role in weakening the East Asian trough (EAT) by increasing the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the North Pacific. In the upper troposphere, natural external forcings contribute to the observed weakening of the meridional shear of the East Asian jet stream (EAJS) by regulating the meridional temperature gradient (MTG) over the East Asian region. In the lower troposphere, both anthropogenic and natural forcings can weaken the Siberian high during this period. Overall, based on the present analysis of the CMIP5 output, GHGs and natural forcings play key roles in shaping the observed interdecadal weakening of the EAWM during the mid-1980s. Additionally, contributions from internal variability cannot be neglected and require further investigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we investigate the influence of low-frequency solar forcing on the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) by analyzing a four-member ensemble of 600-year simulations performed with HadCM3 (Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3). We find that the EAWM is strengthened when total solar irradiance (TSI) increases on the multidecadal time scale. The model results indicate that positive TSI anomalies can result in the weakening of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, causing negative sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the North Atlantic. Especially for the subtropical North Atlantic, the negative SST anomalies can excite an anomalous Rossby wave train that moves from the subtropical North Atlantic to the Greenland Sea and finally to Siberia. In this process, the positive sea-ice feedback over the Greenland Sea further enhances the Rossby wave. The wave train can reach the Siberian region, and strengthen the Siberian high. As a result, low-level East Asian winter circulation is strengthened and the surface air temperature in East Asia decreases. Overall, when solar forcing is stronger on the multidecadal time scale, the EAWM is typically stronger than normal. Finally, a similar linkage can be observed between the EAWM and solar forcing during the period 1850-1970. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has an intimate relationship with Asian summer monsoon precipitation. Previous study pointed out that the most recent 2015–2016 El Niño event is tied with the 1997–1998 and 1982–1983 El Niño events as the strongest event since 1950, which may result in catastrophe in Asian monsoon region. Therefore, in this article, we mainly focus on the anomalous precipitation pattern in the Pan‐Asian monsoon region during MJJ 2016 and its impact factors. Results show that the summer precipitation anomalies display a meridional tripole pattern from north to south in the Pan‐Asian monsoon region during 2016. This pattern indicates that the anomalous increased rainfall is located over the middle–lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley–East China Sea (ECS) and the tropical eastern Indian Ocean–western Maritime Continent, while the anomalous decreased rainfall is located over the South China Sea (SCS)–Philippine Sea. Results suggest that the preceding winter and spring ENSO and the simultaneous summer Maritime Continent sea surface temperature (SST) are the primary impact factors of the pattern of tripole precipitation anomalies in the Pan‐Asian monsoon region during MJJ 2016. The preceding ENSO can intensify the western North Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), which results in the anomalous decrease in precipitation over the Indo‐China Peninsula–Philippine Sea. Meanwhile, more moisture is transported from the northwestern flank of WPSH to the Yangtze River valley–ESC to increase rainfall. In the ENSO decaying summer, the Maritime Continent SST anomalous warming induces an anomalous convergence in situ, which increases the local precipitation. Later, this warming can intensify the WPSH through the local meridional circulation. The north Indian Ocean SST, including Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal, also has a high relationship with tripole precipitation pattern, but it cannot induce this tripole rainfall pattern, which establishes the linkage through the extending WPSH. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although there has been a considerable amount of research conducted on the East Asian winter-mean climate, subseasonal surface air temperature (SAT) variability reversals in the early and late winter remain poorly understood. In this study, we focused on the recent winter of 2014/15, in which warmer anomalies dominated in January and February but colder conditions prevailed in December. Moreover, Arctic sea-ice cover (ASIC) in September-October 2014 was lower than normal, and warmer sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies occurred in the Niño4 region in winter, together with a positive Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO|+) phase. Using observational data and CMIP5 historical simulations, we investigated the PDO|+ phase modulation upon the winter warm Niño4 phase (autumn ASIC reduction) influence on the subseasonal SAT variability of East Asian winter. The results show that, under a PDO|+ phase modulation, warm Niño4 SST anomalies are associated with a subseasonal delay of tropical surface heating and subsequent Hadley cell and Ferrel cell intensification in January-February, linking the tropical and midlatitude regions. Consistently, the East Asian jet stream (EAJS) is significantly decelerated in January-February and hence promotes the warm anomalies over East Asia. Under the PDO|+ phase, the decrease in ASIC is related to cold SST anomalies in the western North Pacific, which increase the meridional temperature gradient and generate an accelerated and westward-shifted EAJS in December. The westward extension of the EAJS is responsible for the eastward-propagating Rossby waves triggered by declining ASIC and thereby favors the connection between ASIC and cold conditions over East Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Precipitation/humidity proxies are widely used to reconstruct the historical East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) variations based on the assumption that summer precipitation over eastern China is closely and stably linked to the strength of EASM. However, whether the observed EASM-precipitation relationship (e.g., increased precipitation with a stronger EASM) was stable throughout the past remains unclear. In this study, we used model outputs from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase III and Community Earth System Model to investigate the stability of the EASM-precipitation relationship over the last millennium on different timescales. The model results indicate that the EASM strength (defined as the regionally averaged meridional wind) was enhanced in the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; ~950-1250 AD), during which there was increased precipitation over eastern China, and weakened during the Little Ice Age (LIA; ~1500-1800 AD), during which there was decreased precipitation, consistent with precipitation/humidity proxies. However, the simulated EASM-precipitation relationship is only stable on a centennial and longer timescale and is unstable on a shorter timescale. The nonstationary short-timescale EASM- precipitation relationship broadly exhibits a multi-decadal periodicity, which may be attributed to the internal variability of the climate system and has no significant correlation to external forcings. Our results have implications for understanding the discrepancy among various EASM proxies on a multi-decadal timescale and highlight the need to rethink reconstructed decadal EASM variations based on precipitation/humidity proxies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The severe drought over northeast Asia in summer 2014 and the contribution to it by sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Indo-Pacific region were investigated from the month-to-month perspective. The severe drought was accompanied by weak lower-level summer monsoon flow and featured an obvious northward movement during summer. The mid-latitude Asian summer (MAS) pattern and East Asia/Pacific teleconnection (EAP) pattern, induced by the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and western North Pacific summer monsoon (WNPSM) rainfall anomalies respectively, were two main bridges between the SST anomalies in the tropical Indo-Pacific region and the severe drought. Warming in the Arabian Sea induced reduced rainfall over northeast India and then triggered a negative MAS pattern favoring the severe drought in June 2014. In July 2014, warming in the tropical western North Pacific led to a strong WNPSM and increased rainfall over the Philippine Sea, triggering a positive EAP pattern. The equatorial eastern Pacific and local warming resulted in increased rainfall over the off-equatorial western Pacific and triggered an EAP-like pattern. The EAP pattern and EAP-like pattern contributed to the severe drought in July 2014. A negative Indian Ocean dipole induced an anomalous meridional circulation, and warming in the equatorial eastern Pacific induced an anomalous zonal circulation, in August 2014. The two anomalous cells led to a weak ISM and WNPSM, triggering the negative MAS and EAP patterns responsible for the severe drought. Two possible reasons for the northward movement of the drought were also proposed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate the interannual variability of the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) circulation, which has experienced a significant interdecadal change since 2000. This change is primarily influenced by sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Pacific and North Atlantic oceans. During the pre-2000 period examined in this study (1979-99), the SASM is negatively correlated with eastern Pacific SSTs (the canonical ENSO mode) and positively correlated with the negative phase of the North Atlantic SST tripole (NAT). During the post-2000 period (2000-14), the SASM is negatively correlated with central Pacific SSTs and positively correlated with the positive phase of the NAT pattern. The associated Pacific SSTs change from the eastern to central region, leading to the rising (subsiding) branch of the Walker circulation moving westwards to the Maritime Continent in the latter period, which can impact the interannual variability of the SASM through modulating the wind field in the troposphere. In addition to Pacific SSTs, the NAT SSTs can propagate energy from the North Atlantic to the South Asian High (SAH) region through the wave activity flux, and then further impact the SASM via the SAH. Because the SASM is intimately related with precipitation over the Asian region, we briefly discuss the features of the precipitation patterns associated with the SASM during the two periods. The westward shifting Walker circulation leads to the shrinking and weakened anomalous westerlies of the SASM in the lower level, inducing the Maritime Continent rainfall location to move westwards and more moisture to arrive in southern China from the Pacific Ocean in the latter period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Haze is a serious issue in China today, presenting a substantial pollution problem to the public. To enhance understanding of haze mechanisms in recent years, this study examined the relationship between the subtropical western Pacific sea surface temperature ( SST) and the haze pollution over North-Central North China Plain. The empirical orthogonal function result showed an opposite trend of boreal winter (December- January-February) haze days ( WHD) between the south and north of the Huaihe River. The negative sea surface temperature anomaly ( SSTA) over the subtropical western Pacific could intensify the WHD over North-Central North China Plain. As an effective external forcing, the preceding boreal autumn (Sepember-October-November) negative SSTA could weaken the East Asian winter monsoon ( EAWM) circulation, leading to conditions such as a weaker Siberian High, reduced wind speed, higher humidity and an abnormal southerly wind. These conditions provide a favourable environment for haze with static stability and potential for hygroscopic growth. A series of SST sensitivity experiments were carried out using version 3.1 of the Community Atmosphere Model. When negative SSTA with different strengths were added into the model, all the key factors exhibited favourable features for haze, such as smaller EAWM index, stronger inversion potential, weaker vertical velocity, lower boundary layer height and higher relative humidity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, a 600-yr integration performed with the Bergen Climate Model (BCM), version 2.0, was used to investigate the impact of strong tropical volcanic eruptions (SVEs) on the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM). It is found that SVEs have an important influence on the East Asian winter climate. The volcanic forcing can cause changes in surface heat fluxes and tropospheric circulation, particularly over the tropics and high-latitude regions. As a result, Arctic Oscillation enters into its positive phase in the first two winters after SVEs. The associated circulation weakens the Siberian high and reduces the cold air transport to East Asia, which is not conducive to the enhancement of the EAWM during this period. At the same time, the North Pacific Ocean gradually cools and shapes La Niña-like sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the third winter after SVEs. The Walker circulation is strengthened over the Pacific, and two anomalous lower-tropospheric cyclones are located over the South China Sea and southeast of Japan, respectively. Therefore, related northeasterly wind anomalies appear along the East Asian coast, indicating a strengthened EAWM during this period. Meanwhile, the enhanced Siberian high and East Asian trough further contribute to the enhancement of EAWM in the third winter. It is therefore concluded that the SVEs-induced climate changes over the tropical Pacific and north polar regions play an important role in regulating the EAWM in the posteruption winters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We have used an Atmospheric General Circulation Model with a large ensemble (300) to explore the atmospheric responses during the autumn-winter (September to February) to the projected sea-ice free Arctic in autumn (September to November). The detectability of the responses against the internal variability has also been studied. Three ensemble experiments have been performed, the control (CONT) forced by the simulated present-day Arctic sea-ice concentration (SIC) and sea surface temperature (SST), the second forced by the projected autumn Arctic SIC free and present-day SSTs (SENSICE) and the third forced by the projected autumn Arctic SIC free and projected SSTs (SENS). The results show that the disappearance of autumn Arctic sea-ice can cause significant synchronous near-surface warming and increased precipitation over the regions where the sea-ice is removed. The changes in autumn surface heat flux (sensible plus latent), surface air temperature (SAT) and precipitation averaged over the sea-ice reduction region between the SENS and the CONT are about 46, 43 and 50 % more respectively than the changes between the SENSICE and the CONT, which is consistent with the prescribed boundary setting: the surface temperature warming averaged over the sea-ice reduction region in the SENS relative to the CONT is 48 % higher than that in the SENSICE relative to the CONT. The response shows a significant negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) in the troposphere during autumn and December. However, the negative AO does not persist into January-February (JF). Instead, 500 hPa geopotential height (GH) response presents a wave train like pattern in JF which is related to the downstream propagation of the planetary wave perturbations during November-December. The SAT increases over northern Eurasia in JF in accordance with the atmosphere circulation changes. The comparison of the atmosphere response with the atmosphere internal variability (AIV) shows that the responses of SAT and precipitation in the Arctic far exceed the AIV in autumn and the response of the 500 hPa GH is comparable to the AIV in autumn, but none of the responses during JF exceeds the AIV. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT The simulated response of the East Asian winter monsoon ( EAWM) to ENSO-like sea surface temperature anomalies ( SSTAs) forcing in three U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability (U.S. CLIVAR) Project models ( GFDL, CCM3, and CCM3.5) are evaluated. The time series of the ENSO-like pattern significantly correlates with the EAWM index for the period 1949-2004 based on the HadISST SST data set and the NCEP atmospheric reanalysis. Their correlation coefficient is −0.32 at the 95% confidence level. The warm (cold) phase of ENSO-like SSTAs is associated with a weakened (strengthened) Siberian High and an eastern-positioned (western-positioned) Aleutian Low, anomalous southerly (northerly) wind at 850 hPa and positive (negative) surface air temperature anomalies over East Asia and western North Pacific, while 300 hPa zonal wind anomalies emerge with a reduced (accelerated) East Asian jet stream. Further model examination reveals that the simulated response over East Asia forced by warm (cold) ENSO-like SSTAs in CCM3 and the three-model ensemble corresponds to the weakened (strengthened) EAWM. The spatial correlation coefficients between the three-model ensemble and observation in the atmospheric circulation and surface air temperature range from 0.15 to 0.80 at the 99% confidence level. This success in simulating relationship between ENSO-like SSTAs and EWAM using three-model ensemble proposes a new idea for the EAWM prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In summer 2014, north China and large areas of northeastern Asia (NCNEA) suffered from the most severe drought of the past 60 years. This study indicates that the East Asian summer precipitation in 2014 exhibited a tripole anomaly, with severe negative anomalies in NCNEA, strong positive anomalies in south China, South Korea, and Japan, and intense negative anomalies in the western North Pacific. Along with the severe tripole precipitation anomalies, there were strong intensities of the Silk Road pattern, the Pacific-Japan pattern, and the Eurasian teleconnection pattern, which were responsible for the strong precipitation anomaly in 2014 through changes to the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and the East Asian trough. Further analysis indicates that the sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Pacific was nearly the warmest in the past 60 years and, together with the strong SST warming in the warm pool region, thus caused the strong Pacific-Japan teleconnection pattern, southward positioning of the WPSH, and weakened East Asian summer monsoon. Additionally, the summertime sea ice cover in the Arctic Ocean was anomalous, resulting in high SST in the Laptev-Kara Sea and, hence, triggering a strong Eurasian teleconnection pattern and contributing to the severe drought of NCNEA. Furthermore, the intense warming over the European Continent and Caspian Sea favored the Silk Road pattern, also contributing to the southward positioning of the WPSH and the NCNEA drought. The NCNEA severe drought was therefore the joint result of Pacific SST anomalies, Arctic sea ice anomalies, and warming over the European Continent and Caspian Sea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT In this study, we investigated the impact of the spring North Pacific Oscillation ( NPO) on typhoon frequency over the Western North Pacific ( WNP, north of the equator and west of dateline). To reduce the statistical uncertainty, all the data we used have been excluded the El Nino/Southern Oscillation signals. We found that the spring NPO positively correlated with the annual typhoon number over the WNP (hereafter TNWNP) during the period 1968-2010, with a correlation coefficient of 0.62 (above the 99% significance level). When the Northern Low and Southern High pattern over the north Pacific weakens, the TNWNP tends to increase. A positive phase of spring NPO is associated with the tropical circulation and sea surface temperature ( SST) anomalies in the North Pacific, which may lead to unfavorable dynamical and thermal conditions for typhoon genesis over the WNP during JJAS. The negative anomaly of SST over the WNP, associated with the positive spring NPO anomaly, is connected to the tropical atmospheric circulations from spring to summer via good oceanic seasonal persistence and air-sea interaction. Thus, the spring NPO-related variability of the tropical atmospheric circulation as well as the SST can affect typhoon activity over the WNP. In addition, the spring NPO can also be adopted as a predictor for the summer rainfall in South China, since the spring NPO can modulate the WNP SST and western Pacific subtropical high from spring to summer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite the fact that the Arctic Oscillation (AO) has reached a more neutral state and a global-warming hiatus has occurred in winter since the late 1990s, the Arctic sea ice cover (ASIC) still shows a pronounced decrease. This study reveals a close connection ( R = 0.5) between the extratropical sea surface temperature (ET-SST) and ASIC in winter from 1994 to 2013. In response to one positive (negative) unit of deviation in the ET-SST pattern, the ASIC decreases (increases) in the Barents-Kara Seas and Hudson Bay (the Baffin Bay and Bering Sea) by 100-400 km2. This relationship might be maintained because of the impact of warming extratropical oceans on the polar vortex. Positive SST anomalies in the midlatitudes of the North Pacific and Atlantic (around 40°N) strengthen the equatorward planetary wave propagation, whereas negative SST anomalies in the high latitudes weaken the upward planetary wave propagation from the lower troposphere to the stratosphere. The former indicates a strengthening of the poleward meridional eddy momentum flux, and the latter implies a weakening of the poleward eddy heat flux, which favors an intensified upper-level polar night jet and a colder polar vortex, implying a stronger-than-normal polar vortex. Consequently, an anomalous cyclone emerges over the eastern Arctic, limiting or encouraging the ASIC by modulating the mean meridional heat flux. A possible reason for the long-term changes in the relationship between the ET-SST and ASIC is also discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]