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We present a hurricane risk assessment model that simulates North Atlantic Ocean tropical cyclone (TC) tracks and intensity, conditioned on the early season large-scale climate state. The model, Cluster-Based Climate-Conditioned Hurricane Intensity and Track Simulator (C3-HITS), extends a previous version of HITS. HITS is a nonparametric, spatial semi-Markov, stochastic model that generates TC tracks by conditionally simulating segments of randomly varying lengths from the TC tracks contained in NOAA's Best Track Data, version 2, dataset. The distance to neighboring tracks, track direction, TC wind speed, and age are used as conditioning variables. C3-HITS adds conditioning on two early season, large-scale climate covariates to condition the track simulation: the Niño-3.4 index, representing the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) departure from climatology, and main development region, representing tropical North Atlantic SST departure from climatology in the North Atlantic TC main development region. A track clustering procedure is used to identify track families, and a Poisson regression model is used to model the probabilistic number of storms formed in each cluster, conditional on the two climate covariates. The HITS algorithm is then applied to evolve these tracks forward in time. The output of this two-step, climate-conditioned simulator is compared with an unconditional HITS application to illustrate its prognostic efficacy in simulating tracks during the subsequent season. As in the HITS model, each track retains information on velocity and other attributes that can be used for predictive coastal risk modeling for the upcoming TC season. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Evolving patterns of droughts and wet spells in the conterminous United States (CONUS) are examined over 555 years using a tree-ring-based paleoclimate reconstruction of the modified Palmer drought severity index (PDSI). A hidden Markov model is used as an unsupervised method of classifying climate states and quantifying the temporal evolution from one state to another. Modeling temporal variability in spatial patterns of drought and wet spells provides the ability to objectively assess and simulate historical persistence and recurrence of similar patterns. The Viterbi algorithm reveals the probable sequence of states through time, enabling an examination of temporal and spatial features and associated large-scale climate forcing. Distinct patterns of sea surface temperature that are known to enhance or inhibit rainfall are associated with some states. Using the current CONUS PDSI field the model can be used to simulate the space–time PDSI pattern over the next few years, or unconditional simulations can be used to derive estimates of spatially concurrent PDSI patterns and their persistence and intensity across the CONUS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Correlation networks identified from financial, genomic, ecological, epidemiological, social, and climatic data are being used to provide useful topological insights into the structure of high-dimensional data. Strong convection over the oceans and the atmospheric moisture transport and flow convergence indicated by atmospheric pressure fields may determine where and when extreme precipitation occurs. Here, the spatiotemporal relationship among sea surface temperature (SST), sea level pressure (SLP), and extreme global precipitation is explored using a graph-based approach that uses the concept of reciprocity to generate cluster pairs of locations with similar spatiotemporal patterns at any time lag. A global time-lagged relationship between pentad SST anomalies and pentad SLP anomalies is investigated to understand the linkages and influence of the slowly changing oceanic boundary conditions on the development of the global atmospheric circulation. This study explores the use of this correlation network to predict extreme precipitation globally over the next 30 days, using a logistic principal component regression on the strong global dipoles found between SST and SLP. Predictive skill under cross validation and blind prediction for the occurrence of 30-day precipitation that is higher than the 90th percentile of days in the wet season is indicated for the selected global regions considered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the spatiotemporal variability of two sets of daily precipitation from ERA-Interim across the eastern United States between 1979 and 2013: 1) total precipitation and 2) precipitation originating from tropical moisture exports (TMEs), which have been linked to extremes of midlatitude precipitation. Archetypal analysis (AA) is introduced as a new method to decompose and characterize structures within the spatiotemporal climate data. AA is uniquely suited to identify extremal patterns and is a complementary method to empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. The authors provide a brief comparison between AA and EOF analysis and then examine the spatiotemporal variability, circulation anomalies, and sea surface temperature teleconnections associated with the archetypes of the two precipitation variables. Markovian structure, seasonal variability, and interannual trends in archetype occurrence are explored using nonparametric generalized linear models (GLMs). Results show that the modes of precipitation variability and their associated teleconnections are very similar between total and TME precipitation, suggesting that TMEs can help explain prevailing modes of total precipitation variability. Both total and TME precipitation shift longitudinally conditional on the phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic, and they are inhibited during strong, negative PDO and positive Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) regimes. The GLM analysis reveals distinct seasonal cycles and decadal trends in archetypes likely associated with the strength and position of the North Atlantic subtropical high (NASH). The study concludes with a discussion of the limitations of the analysis and other promising applications of AA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Integrated atmospheric water vapor transport (IVT) is a determinant of global precipitation. In this paper, using the CERA-20C climate reanalysis dataset, we explore three questions in Northern Hemisphere precipitation for four seasons: 1) What is the covariability between the leading spatiotemporal modes of seasonal sea surface temperature (SST), the seasonal IVT, and the seasonal precipitation for the Northern Hemisphere? 2) How well can the leading spatial modes of seasonal precipitation be reconstructed from the leading modes of IVT and SST for the same season? 3) How well can the leading modes of precipitation for the next season be predicted from the leading modes of the current season's SST and IVT? Wavelet analyses identify covariation in the leading modes of seasonal precipitation and those of IVT and SST in the 2–8-yr band, with the highest amplitude in the March–May (MAM) season, and provide a firm physical explanation for the potential predictability. We find that a subset of the 10 leading principal components of the seasonal IVT and SST fields has significant trends in connections with seasonal precipitation modes, and provides an accurate statistical concurrent reconstruction and one-season-ahead forecast of the leading seasonal precipitation modes, thus providing a pathway to improving the understanding and prediction of precipitation extremes in the context of climate change attribution, seasonal and longer prediction, and climate change scenarios. The same-season reconstruction model can explain 76% of the variance, and the next-season forecast model can explain 58% variance of hemispheric precipitation on average. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT Climate is a primary driver for extreme rainfall and flood events. In this paper, the temporally changing flood risk associated with the annual maximum 30-day rainfall (30-day AMR) and the annual maximum daily inflow ( AMDI) related to the Xidayang Reservoir catchment is analysed from a climatic context. This is the largest catchment in Daqing River Basin in North China and is highly prone to floods related to the East Asian summer monsoon. Two climate factors, the average May-June-July sea surface temperature anomalies in areas of the northern Indian Ocean and western Pacific Ocean, are identified. They show a high negative correlation with the AMDI and 30-day AMR. Bayesian nonstationary models are then developed for the AMDI and 30-day AMR using the climate predictors identified as covariates. We compared three types of models of AMDI and 30-day AMR: (1) time-invariant, (2) linear temporal trend and (3) climate informed, and found that the climate-informed models exhibit the best performance according to Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) and 90th percentile Bayesian coverage rate for both AMDI and 30-day AMR. A significant decreasing trend is identified in the AMDI and the 30-day AMR, which is found to be associated with the climate predictors. Leave one out cross validation (LOOCV) is used to demonstrate that these models have decent skill in predicting year-to-year variability in flood risk. This can help to provide flood/rainfall dynamic management measures for reservoirs in Daqing River Basin using information from before the beginning of monsoon season, thus facilitating adaptation to a changing climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present the first global precipitation predictability estimates corresponding to the recently discovered flavors of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) that are encoded in the hidden states of Tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures identified using a non‐homogeneous hidden Markov model. For each calendar month and for each hidden state, we assess future precipitation predictability through the conditional standardized anomaly of the average and the standard deviation of monthly precipitation, at 1, 3, 6, 9, and 12 months lead times. We find statistically significant potential predictive skill for key regions for each hidden state and calendar month, even for 12‐months in the future. We apply the algorithm sequentially over the period of record to identify regions that can be consistently predicted for different lead times and calendar months. The cross‐validated correlation skill is demonstrably superior to that of regression with an ENSO index used in the same way. Plain Language Summary: El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) information is routinely used by hydrologists, agriculturalists and others as a useful prognosticator of upcoming precipitation. Since the characterization of ENSO has recently been broadened to consider different "flavors," the NINO3.4 correlations used by many people may not be the most informative. Our machine learning model identified five hidden states of the tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures that correspond to the different ENSO flavors. We explore how future monthly precipitation may be predictable knowing which hidden state is currently identified and show that this leads to a higher predictability for up to almost a year in the future for many more calendar months in more regions of the world than NINO3.4 correlations. Key Points: Predictability of monthly global rainfall using hidden states of Sea Surface Temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean is demonstratedHighly significant skill for many global regions and months is identified by sampling of means and deviations given hidden stateA sequential application of the method leads to much higher cross‐validated correlations than those based on regression on an El Niño Southern Oscillation index [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents an analysis and interpretation of global sea surface temperature (SST) data using independent component analysis (ICA) and principal component analysis (PCA). It states that PCA represents multivariates and expands the variance explicated by components. It compares the capacity of PCA, the Varimax rotation and ICA in demonstrating climate unpredictability in SST anomaly (SSTA) data distributed worldwide.

The evolution of El Niño can be separated into two phases-namely, growth and mature-depending on whether the regional sea surface temperature has adjusted to the tropospheric warming in the remote tropics (tropical regions away from the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean). The western Sahel's main rainy season (July-September) is shown to be affected by the growth phase of El Niño through (i) a lack of neighboring North Atlantic sea surface warming, (ii) an absence of an atmospheric column water vapor anomaly over the North Atlantic and western Sahel, and (iii) higher atmospheric vertical stability over the western Sahel, resulting in the suppression of mean seasonal rainfall as well as number of wet days. In contrast, the short rainy season (October-December) of tropical eastern Africa is impacted by the mature phase of El Niño through (i) neighboring Indian Ocean sea surface warming, (ii) positive column water vapor anomalies over the Indian Ocean and tropical eastern Africa, and (iii) higher atmospheric vertical instability over tropical eastern Africa, leading to an increase in the mean seasonal rainfall as well as in the number of wet days. While the modulation of the frequency of wet days and seasonal mean accumulation is statistically significant, daily rainfall intensity (for days with rainfall > 1 mm day−1), whether mean, median, or extreme, does not show a significant response in either region. Hence, the variability in seasonal mean rainfall that can be attributed to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon in both regions is likely due to changes in the frequency of rainfall. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Masinga Reservoir located in the upper Tana River basin, Kenya, is extremely important in supplying the country's hydropower and protecting downstream ecology. The dam serves as the primary storage reservoir, controlling streamflow through a series of downstream hydroelectric reservoirs. The Masinga dam's operation is crucial in meeting power demands and thus contributing significantly to the country's economy. La Niña-related prolonged droughts of 1999-2001 resulted in severe power shortages in Kenya. Therefore, seasonal streamflow forecasts contingent on climate information are essential to estimate preseason water allocation. Here, the authors utilize reservoir inflow forecasts downscaled from monthly updated precipitation forecasts from ECHAM4.5 forced with constructed analog SSTs and multimodel precipitation forecasts developed from the Ensemble-Based Predictions of Climate Changes and their Impacts (ENSEMBLES) project to improve water allocation during the April-June and October-December seasons for the Masinga Reservoir. Three-month-ahead inflow forecasts developed from ECHAM4.5, multiple GCMs, and climatological ensembles are used in a reservoir model to allocate water for power generation by ensuring climatological probability of meeting the end-of-season target storage required to meet seasonal water demands. Retrospective reservoir analysis shows that inflow forecasts developed from single GCM and multiple GCMs perform better than use of climatological values by reducing the spill and increasing the allocation for hydropower during above-normal inflow years. Similarly, during below-normal inflow years, both of these forecasts could be effectively utilized to meet the end-of-season target storage by restricting releases for power generation. The multimodel forecasts preserve the end-of-season target storage better than the single-model inflow forecasts by reducing uncertainty and the overconfidence of individual model forecasts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]