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Operational forecasts rely on accurate and timely observations and it is important that the ocean forecasting community demonstrates the impact of those observations to the observing community and its funders while providing feedback on requirements for the design of the ocean observing system. One way in which impact of new observations can be assessed is through Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs). Various satellite missions are being proposed to measure Total Surface Current Velocities (TSCV). This study uses OSSEs to assess the potential impact of assimilating TSCV observations. OSSEs have been performed using two global ocean forecasting systems; the Met Office's (MetO) Forecasting Ocean Assimilation Model and the Mercator Ocean International (MOI) system. Developments to the individual systems, the design of the experiments and results have been described in two companion papers. This paper provides an intercomparison of the OSSEs results from the two systems. We show that global near surface velocity analysis root-mean-squared-errors (RMSE) are reduced by 20-30% and 10-15% in the MetO and MOI systems respectively, we also demonstrate that the percentage of particles forecast to be within 50 km of the true particle locations after drifting for 6 days has increased by 9%/7%. Furthermore, we show that the global subsurface velocities are improved down to 1500m in the MetO system and down to 400m in the MOI system. There are some regions where TSCV assimilation degrades the results, notably themiddle of the gyres in the MetOsystem and at depth in the MOI system. Further tuning of the background and observation error covariances are required to improve performance in these regions. We also provide some recommendations on TSCV observation requirements for future satellite missions. We recommend that at least 80% of the ocean surface is observed in less than 4 to 5 days with a horizontal resolution of 20 to 50 km. Observations should be provided within one day of measurement time to allow real time assimilation and should have an accuracy of 10 cm/s in the along and across track direction and uncertainty estimates should be provided with each measurement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate prediction of ocean surface currents is important for marine safety, ship routing, tracking of pollutants and in coupled forecasting. Presently, velocity observations are not routinely assimilated in global ocean forecasting systems, largely due to the sparsity of the observation network. Several satellite missions are now being proposed with the capability to measure Total Surface Current Velocities (TSCV). If successful, these would substantially increase the coverage of ocean current observations and could improve accuracy of ocean current forecasts through data assimilation. In this paper, Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) are used to assess the impact of assimilating TSCV in the Met Office's global ocean forecasting system. Synthetic observations are generated from a high-resolution model run for all standard observation types (sea surface temperature, profiles of temperature and salinity, sea level anomaly and sea ice concentration) as well as TSCV observations from a Sea surface KInematics Multiscale monitoring (SKIM) like satellite. The assimilation of SKIM like TSCV observations is tested over an 11 month period. Preliminary experiments assimilating idealised single TSCV observations demonstrate that ageostrophic velocity corrections are not well retained in the model. We propose a method for improving ageostrophic currents through TSCV assimilation by initialising Near Inertial Oscillations with a rotated incremental analysis update (IAU) scheme. The OSSEs show that TSCV assimilation has the potential to significantly improve the prediction of velocities, particularly in the Western Boundary Currents, Antarctic Circumpolar Current and in the near surface equatorial currents. For global surface velocity the analysis root-mean-squareerrors (RMSEs) are reduced by 23% and there is a 4-day gain in forecast RMSE. There are some degradations to the subsurface in the tropics, generally in regions with complex vertical salinity structures. However, outside of the tropics, improvements are seen to velocities throughout the water column. Globally there are also improvements to temperature and sea surface height when TSCV are assimilated. The TSCV assimilation largely corrects the geostrophic ocean currents, but results using the rotated IAU method show that the energy at inertial frequencies can be improved with this method. Overall, the experiments demonstrate significant potential benefit of assimilating TSCV observations in a global ocean forecasting system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The stranding of sargassum seaweed on the Caribbean Archipelago beaches constitutes a real socio-economic, ecological and health problem. Météo-France currently operates a model of sargassum drift forecasts (called MOTHY) forced by ocean currents from the global analysis and forecasting system GLO12 at 1/12° (~ 9 km over the Caribbean) operated by Mercator Ocean International (MOi). In order to improve the Météo-France drift forecast, MOi has developed a regional high-resolution ocean forecasting system CAR36 at 1/36° (~ 3 km) centred on the Caribbean Archipelago region. In addition to a finer spatial resolution, this system was designed to resolve some higher frequency signals such as the tidal forcing and to use hourly atmospheric forcing including the inverse barometer effect. Here the added value of the CAR36 system relative to GLO12 is evaluated with particular focus on the reproduction of meso-and sub-mesoscale structures representing key features of the Caribbean region dynamics and therefore sargassum transport. The realism of the local dynamics was examined with standard statistical validation diagnostics using satellite data (Sea Surface Height, Sea Surface Temperature, Sargassum detection) and drifting buoys, together with more process-oriented diagnostics such as eddy detection and tracking across the domain. GLO12 and CAR36 hindcast simulations were compared over the year 2019. CAR36 showed marginally better scores using OceanPredict diagnostics (https://oceanpredict.org/). The dynamics of a westward-propagating North Brazil Current (NBC) eddy from its entry into the domain to its dissipation was found to be more realistic in CAR36, especially at the end of its lifetime when it collides with the Caribbean Archipelago. The transfer of kinetic energy from the eddy dissipating westward into the Caribbean Sea was diagnosed as more pronounced for CAR36 corresponding to filamentary structures crossing the Caribbean Archipelago and resulting in part from the friction of the NBC eddy along the islands to the east. Using detection from satellite, aggregation of Sargassum around eddies or along filaments suggests that CAR36 should be able to improve the algae drift forecasts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Plastic pollution has been reported in the North Atlantic Ocean since the 1970s, yet limited data over subsequent decades pose challenges when assessing spatio-temporal trends in relation to global leakages and intervention strategies. This study quantified microplastics within the upper ocean along a longitudinal transect of the North Atlantic and its subtropical gyre. Microplastics were sampled from surface and subsurface (−25 m) water using a manta trawl and NIKSIN bottle respectively. The surface water polymer community varied significantly between geographic positions ('inshore', 'gyre', 'open ocean'), and was significantly influenced by fragment quantity. Compared to other positions, the North Atlantic gyre was associated with high concentrations of polyethylene, polypropylene, acrylic and polyamide fragments. Subsurface water was dominated by polyamide and polyester fibres. Backtracked 2-year Lagrangian simulations illustrated connectivity patterns. Continued monitoring of microplastics throughout the water column of the North Atlantic Ocean is required to address knowledge gaps and assess spatio-temporal trends. [Display omitted] • MPs sampled from the upper ocean across longitudinal transect of N. Atlantic Ocean • Polymer community significantly varied geographically. • Significantly greater quantity of fragments in N. Atlantic gyre than other regions • PA and polyester fibres predominantly isolated from subsurface water (25 m). • Ongoing study of the N. Atlantic required to examine spatio-temporal plastic trends. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]