Search

Dietary choices are one of the main causes of mortality and environmental degradation. Plant-based diets, in comparison to diets rich in animal products, are considered to be more sustainable because they use fewer natural resources and come with a lower environmental burden, resulting in lower greenhouse gas emissions in particular. However, the rapid increase in global population and wealth has led to an increased demand for foods of animal origin. Getting enough protein might be one of the reasons people consume animal products but its increased consumption could negatively impact our health and environment. Hence, the aim of this paper is to examine the economic and sociodemographic factors that influence the amount and the share of animal food intake as well as the amount and the share of animal-based protein in the worldwide diet. An econometric analysis of country-level panel data allows us to investigate the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis in the context of a sustainable diet. The findings suggest that the relationship between GDP per capita and animal-based food and protein supply resembles an inverted U-shaped curve. In the global analysis, the turning point is estimated to be around $ 81,500 in relation to both the share of animal food supply and the share of animal proteins. The resulting income elasticity shows to be inelastic across the domain, however, the specific values vary depending on the country's level of GDP. The elasticity is positive for low- to middle-income countries with its maximum of 0.29; and it becomes negative once a country reaches a GDP level of about $ 77,000-$ 81,000.

This paper suggests using portfolio management methods in policy planning models as a practical tool for determining optimal policy under model parameter uncertainty. We suggest that in addition to calculating the standard policy return estimates, policy options should also be analyzed from the risk perspective by using metrics that inform the effect of parameter uncertainty on policy impact variation. We demonstrate the approach in a Computable General Equilibrium model that analyzes pro-poor agricultural value chains in Senegal under world market uncertainty. We show that prioritizing the rice sector is the most effective policy in terms of expected policy return, but this policy is also associated with the highest risk, leading to an increase in poverty under unfavorable yet realistic scenarios. Much like diversified portfolios in finance, mixed policies that assume the rice sector's promotion combined with other sectors such as milk, vegetables, oilseeds, or fishery, can offer risk reduction at the cost of reduced expected policy return.

Computational simulation models are widely used in the field of agricultural economics for a variety of tasks, particularly for evidence-based policy analysis. Despite the substantial and continuing growth of computing power and speed, the growing complexity together with the implicit nature of the simulation models, on the one hand, still lead to high computational costs in applying the models along with great difficulties in the parameter specification where data availability and parametrization constraints for empirical calibration problems are notably challenging. On the other hand, they also limit the use of simulation models in many other aspects such as integration into other research frameworks like policy optimization coupled with uncertainty analysis. In this paper, we attempt to systematically and comprehensively introduce the metamodeling technique and investigate several metamodel types in terms of accuracy, computational time, variable importance, and potential practical applications.

Is it possible to apply Principal Component Analysis (PCA) in the Azerbaijan economy? Before blindly answering the question, careful examination of the collected data and the relevance of the data set to the mentioned analysis should be checked. PCA is a widely used multivariate dimension reduction tool that statistical analysis employs. Nevertheless, its application area is limited. Also, PCA analysis in macroeconomic studies is not much preferred and in Azerbaijan's case, there is not one. To understand this methods' relevance two case studies, namely vegetable and fruit sectors have been chosen. The aim was to quantify the sub-sectoral performance via vegetable and fruit sectors. The collected data set and PCA analysis on it were evaluated from multiple angles to outline the roadmap for future investigations. The author argues that in line with the method's theoretical expectations, Azerbaijan's vegetable and fruit sectors partially fulfill the planned goals of the analysis. This means PCA is a highly useful analytical tool and might produce valuable sub-sectoral performance evaluations in the case of Azerbaijan. According to the produced indices, the vegetable sector performed better than the fruit sector from 1999 until 2015. However, between 2015-2020 fruit sector outperformed the vegetable sector. A similar analysis can be organized among the other sub-sectors or between sectors in the case of the Azerbaijan economy. Furthermore, this working paper embodies experimentation results, not conclusions about the methods' validity and justification. Hence, this work compares three rotations of PCA analysis (Varimax, Quartimax, and Equamax) and constructed indices separately for vegetable and fruit sectors.

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a naturally occurring phenomenon that affects weather around the world. Past ENSO episodes have had severe impacts on the economy of Colombia. We study the influence of ENSO on Colombian coffee production, exports, and price. Our structural econometric specification is consistent with an economic model of the market for Colombian coffee which, in the short run, is characterized by a downward-sloping demand curve and by a vertical supply curve. We show that El Niño (i.e., positive shocks to ENSO) is beneficial for Colombian production and exports and decreases the real price of Colombian coffee. On the contrary, La Niña (i.e., negative shocks to ENSO) depresses Colombian coffee production and exports and increases price. However, the overall impact of ENSO shocks is small. Both in the short run and in the long run, shocks to international demand for Colombian coffee are more relevant than supply-side shocks in Colombia in explaining the dynamics of the price of Colombian coffee. Our results suggest that a given coffee price shock can have beneficial, detrimental, or negligible effects on the Colombian economy, depending on its underlying cause. As a consequence, policy responses to coffee price shocks should be designed by looking at the causes of the shocks.

This paper proposes that the transformation of the agric sector into an agribusiness model will contribute to repositioning Nigerian economy from its backwater position in the world’s economy. This proposition was investigated with the help of a review of literature and analysis of secondary time series data from the period of 2005–2014, which represented the contributions of the agricultural, manufacturing, oil and gas, and service sectors in Nigeria. One hypothesis was formulated and investigated with the t-test, correlation, and regression tests. The test results were positive and statistically significant at.05 alpha level, and they showed that agriculture has the potential to consistently have a significant effect in contributing to the growth of the Nigerian GDP both in the short and long run. These results justify the clarion call within the government and business sectors to diversify the economy and return to agriculture as the country’s bedrock for economic stability, especially as global economy becomes more volatile, uncertain, turbulent, and ambiguous. To this end, six strategies and twelve policy recommendations are suggested towards the implementation of a Structural Adjustment for Agribusiness Promotion (SAFAP) in Nigeria, and this is to be implemented as an action plan for pursuing a nationwide agricultural revolution. The paper concludes that, in view of its Vision 20:2020 to be among the top twenty economies in the world, Nigeria can become positioned to be a major player in global economy by diversifying from an oil-dependent economy into agribusiness and agric trade.

This paper examines the dynamic effects of monsoon rainfall shocks on yield, wages, and prices in the Indian agricultural sector. We distinguish between positive and negative rainfall shocks and explicitly consider their spatial dimension (local/regional). We find that particularly negative regional shocks exert adverse effects. The enormous drop in agricultural yield is short-lived, but elicits a persistent decline (increase) in wages (food prices). Negative local shocks affect only wages, but not prices. This indicates that, in the food market, intra-regional trading mitigates the impact of local shocks. However, in the labour market, the arbitrage mechanism through migration appears substantially weaker.

Farmers face many types of risks that affect their behavior and well-being. Among these risks, the one related to the price of products appears the most economically sensitive. They develop various strategies to cope with this, either by taking decisions at the level of their exploitation, by using instruments offered by the market, or by diversifying their sources of income. This article analyzes, using a system Generalized Method-Of-Moment (GMM), the decisions made at the farm level to show that farmers are increasing their production and the areas that they sow in response to price volatility. Thus, price volatility exerts an incentive to increase maize production in Benin. This paper suggests taking the influence of risk aversion into account when defining policies to stabilize agricultural prices particularly in developing countries.

We measure the impact of search costs on farmers’ and traders’ transaction prices in Mozambique by investigating to what extent the introduction of mobile phones has affected the margin between recorded maize producer and retail market prices, and by exploring if producers or traders benefit from possible margin changes. Estimations are based on weekly producer and retail market prices of white maize grain, from July 1997 to December 2009, for 15 major producer markets in Mozambique. We find a margin increase that varies from 4.5% to 9.6%, supporting a bias of benefits of mobile phones towards maize traders and hence not less asymmetric information and increased trader competition, but rather the reverse. Impacts on producer and market prices independently vary, but confirm the margin results. Estimation results are robust for non-random rollout of the mobile phone network and various other threats.

For a panel of 75 countries, we find that increases in global agricultural commodity prices that are caused by unfavorable harvest shocks in other regions of the world significantly curtail domestic economic activity. The effects are much larger than for average global agricultural price shifts. The impact is also considerably stronger in high-income countries, despite the lower shares of food in household expenditures these countries have compared to low-income countries. On the other hand, we find weaker effects in countries that are net exporters of agricultural products, have higher shares of agriculture in GDP or lower shares of non-agricultural trade in GDP; that is, characteristics that typically apply to low-income countries. When we control for these country characteristics, we find indeed that the effects on economic activity become smaller when income per capita is higher. Overall, our findings imply that the consequences of climate change on advanced economies are likely larger than previously thought.

The diversified way of eating apples as well as the versatility of the species that can be cultivated with good results under different environmental and climatic conditions has determined a particular interest for fruit growers. In Romania, apple culture occupies the first place both in terms of surface and production. Current concepts of rational nutrition place fruit consumption in a priority, primarily because they provide the human body with a wide range of vitamins, mineral salts and vital water that are so necessary for the normal physiological activity of the human body. In this paper we are looking at the dynamics of the areas planted with apple during the period 2010-2016, the dynamics of the total and average outputs, as well as the dynamics of the capitalization prices on each county. The purpose of the paper is to make some recommendations that might be useful to Romanian producers who choose apple for their business.

The main purpose of this study is to present and analyze a number of technical and economic indicators of Romanian agriculture during 2005-2016. The main indicators monitored are the land fund development, area and crop production, livestock and livestock production, number of agricultural holdings, economic accounts and prices in agriculture and agro-environmental indicators. It was found that over time in Romanian agriculture were produced important changes both in terms of quantity and quality, both in crop farming and in livestock. Common Agricultural Policy attempts to provide a reasonable level of living of farmers and residents of countries default and especially for this reason, through the indicators analyzed, this study aims to provide a broad picture of progress or regress in Romanian agriculture in lately. The best perspective on agriculture is provided by economic accounts because they provide information about the composition and structure of agricultural production, the income received by farmers, the relationships between prices and inputs, the value of the standard output production, intermediate consumption, gross value added and subsidies practically with the help of these indicators is carried out an analysis of the economic efficiency of agriculture.

Food safety represents a current topic, with significant implications and diverse approaches within the specialized literature. In the context of globalization and integration of agricultural markets, the necessity of guaranteeing food safety is imperative for the functionality of contemporary agricultural systems. The radical transformation of the national agricultural systems as a result of the influences imposed by the convergence with the requirements and directions of the European agricultural model entails a significant change for the markets of agri-food products, affecting the food trade, its structure and, implicitly, food safety. In this context, the main objective of the present paper is to examine food safety in Romania using an econometric approach to the phenomenon. Nine fundamental variables are considered, for which the causal relationship between food safety and the exogenous variables taken into analysis is tested. The time frame for data availability for all the variables is 1990-2011. The obtained results highlight the transformations of paradigm of the national agricultural model from the perspective of the dimensions regarding food safety, confirming results from previous studies.

This study examines the linkages between energy price and food prices over the period 2000-2016 by using a Panel-VAR model in the case of eight Asian economies, namely Bangladesh, the PRC, Indonesia, India, Japan, Sri Lanka, Thailand, and Viet Nam. Our results confirm that energy price (oil price) has a significant impact on food prices. According to the results of impulse response functions, agricultural food prices respond positively to any shock from oil prices. Furthermore, the findings from variance decomposition reveal that shares of oil prices in agricultural food price volatilities are the largest. In the second period 4.81%, and in the 20th period 62.49%, of food price variance is explained by oil price movements. The paper opens up new policy insight. Since inflation in oil price is harmful for food security, particularly in vulnerable economies, it would be necessary to diversify the energy consumption in this sector, from too much reliance on fossil fuels to an optimal combination of renewable and nonrenewable energy resources. In addition, the paper found that the impact of biofuel prices on food prices is statistically significant but explains less than 2% of the food price variance. However, by increasing the demand for biofuel, especially in advanced countries, there should be more concern about the global increase in agricultural commodities prices and endangering food security, especially in vulnerable economies.

Global food demand will see a rapid increase over the coming decades. Existing studies on future calorie demand consider mainly population growth and rising incomes. We add to the literature by estimating the effect of increases in human weight caused by rising BMI and height on future calorie requirements. We produce projections that are solely based on human energy requirements for maintenance of weight. We develop four different scenarios that affect this value and show that increases in human height and BMI could lead to an increase in global calorie requirements by 18.73 percentage points between 2010 and 2100 compared to a world where the weight per age-sex group would stay the same. These increases will particularly affect countries which are already facing higher rises in calorie requirements due to high population growth. The region most affected by this pattern is Sub-Saharan Africa.

We examine the effects of monsoon rainfall shocks on agricultural output, wages, and prices in India. The effects are highly asymmetric: agricultural output falls by 16% after a negative shock, but a positive shock has no significant effects. Although the drop in agricultural output is very short-lived, it elicits a persistent decline (increase) in wages (food prices). This indicates that famines are caused by a persistent disruption in food acquisition, rather than by a shortage in food supply.

Recent papers have suggested that use of a so-called Repeated Opt-Out Reminder (ROOR) might mitigate hypothetical bias in stated Discrete Choice Experiments (DCE), but evidence so far has only been circumstantial. We provide the first comprehensive test of whether a ROOR can actually mitigate hypothetical bias in stated DCE. The data originates from a field experiment concerning consumer preferences for a novel food product made from cricket flour. Utilizing a between-subject design with three treatments, we find significantly higher marginal willingness to pay values in hypothetical than in nonhypothetical settings, confirming the usual presence of hypothetical bias. Comparing this to a hypothetical setting where the ROOR is introduced, we find that the ROOR effectively eliminates hypothetical bias for one attribute and significantly reduces it for the rest of the attributes. Our results further suggest that these reductions of hypothetical bias are brought about by a decrease in the tendency to ignore the price attribute.

Between March 2017 and April 2017, ICEADR Institute conducted a survey among the Romanian fruit producers, in order to identify the problems they face and to highlight their opinions. The survey's results were used to find solutions for an efficient exploitation of fruits' production. Quantitative research was used as the main method for picking information while the research technique consisted on the structural research (survey). Most farmers are not implied in associative forms and they are not interested in joining one in the nearest future. Small exploitations register small productions which do not permit them to sign selling contracts and consequently their incomings are around 4500 RON each year. Also, the Authorities' implication in supporting small and medium producers is very low. Awareness of the advantages of association / cooperation by facilitating access to private and public resources, promoting practices and technologies that ensure environmental protection, assurance of consultancy, defense of members' interests in their relations with government bodies and state administration, promotion of products on national and international market , ensuring equal rights for all members, improving the information and supply system, developing agro-food markets, correlating the level of production and product quality in line with market requirements, capitalizing on larger quantities of products, reducing tax evasion is the solution to solving problems Romanian grain farmers.

From 1750 to 2015 we may detect three waves of globalization of wines produced in Portugal, namely, port wine exports for the British market in the 18th century, common wines exports to France in the second half of the 19th century, and finally the growth of exports to European markets from the last decade of the 20th century up to the present times. This chapter explores the fundamentals of such waves looking at trends in output, productivity, domestic and foreign consumption, commercial agreements and economic policies. The first two waves came to halt as conditions in the foreign markets changed, because they did not have a solid domestic base of production and commercialization. The chapter argues that the third wave is of a different kind as it developed from a more solid domestic base of the wine sector that had developed for decades based on domestic consumption. Thus we may conclude that wine globalization is also about changing domestic economic conditions. The process was however long and painful, as the sector had a very irregular performance throughout the 20th century which is however related to the overall backwardness of the Portuguese economy in the European context.

I use the quasi experimental nature of the roll-out of the mobile phone network in Mozambique to estimate the impact of search costs on the dispersion of maize prices and transport costs. The introduction of mobile phone services from 1997 to 2009 explains a 4.5-11% percent reduction in price dispersion of maize prices, and a slightly larger reduction in per ton km transport costs. Apart from an improvement of the efficiency of maize markets, the evidence suggests that traders benefit by capturing increased rent income. Various sources of potential heterogeneity are identified: the reduction is larger for pairs connecting remote locations, for source markets with a low poverty head count and with a higher mobile phone coverage in neighbouring markets, and during drought periods.

We develop a structural econometric model to study the impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on Colombian coffee production, exports and price. Our empirical specification is consistent with an economic model of the coffee market that, in the short-run, is characterized by a downward-sloping demand curve and by a vertical supply curve. This allows the study of the effects of unpredictable innovations to ENSO on the Colombian coffee price, while controlling for shocks arising from both the supply and the demand-side of the market. We show that El Niño events (i.e. positive shocks to ENSO) might be beneficial for production and exports and tend to decrease the price of coffee. On the contrary, La Niña conditions (i.e. negative shocks to ENSO) depress coffee production and exports and increase price. However, the overall impact of ENSO shocks is small. In the short-run, ENSO shocks explain 2% of the fluctuations of coffee production and 0.2% of the variability of the price of coffee. In the long-run, these percentages rise to 8% and 6%, respectively. Both in the short-run and in the long-run, demand-side shocks are more relevant than supply-side shocks in explaining the dynamics of the price of coffee.

At present, gastronomy is becoming an increasingly stronger motivation and focus of interest in economics, especially in fields related to tourism. At the same time, gastronomic tourism represents one of the most important business opportunities, allowing direct contact between food sector producers and tourists. Moreover, food related tourism is a key factor of success for local food fests and food markets based in touristic destinations. Thus, food related tourism represents an important incentive for the development of short food supply chains, resulting in the cooperation between local producers and tourism operators. In satisfying the demand of tourists interested especially in gastronomical aspects, local economic operators, whether small food sector producers or accommodation unit owners, are compelled to cooperate and complement each other. The present study aims to discuss this particular economic mechanism specific to the Târgu Neamðt touristic area, by taking into consideration both its strengths (especially regional cultural, historical heritage and natural habitat) as well as its weaknesses, represented by the local producers' lack of access to an adequate market, which is a key factor in ensuring long term regional proper development opportunities. Our conclusion is that, at least one potential solution to achieving sustainable development in the Târgu Neamðt region, is to encourage the establishment of long lasting mutually beneficial partnerships between local food sector producers and tourism sector operators.

This study provides an alternative explanation for the unusual apparent decline in food consumption in rural China after 2000. We find that it is mainly attributable to significant measurement errors in the Chinese Rural Household Survey and the calculation of per capita food consumption. In a household survey, total consumption for a household in a certain period is often well recorded, and per capita consumption is obtained by dividing total consumption by household size. Such a calculation of per capita food consumption is vulnerable to a mismatch between food and mouths. Total consumption may be subject to measurement errors caused primarily by food away from home (FAFH). Also, the household size recorded in the survey is not necessarily the same as the number of mouths (consumption household size), who consume the food recorded in the survey. Our results indicate that food consumption in rural China is currently being underestimated by about 30%. Our results also indicate that income elasticities of food consumption are greater than measured elasticities based on the Rural Household Survey data.

While smallholder market participation is seen as a catalyst for poverty alleviation, farmers in rural areas face a number of challenges in doing so. One of the most important factors is considered transaction costs related to transportation. Our study quantifies the benefits associated with improvement of rural road infrastructure by scrutinizing farm-gate prices of beans in rural Nicaragua. We find that the longer the distance and traveling time are to major commercial centers from farming communities, the less farm-gate prices producers receive. We find that a decrease in distance and traveling time by one unit is associated with an increase in farm-gate prices by 2-2.5 cents/qq. If infrastructure development can reduce travel time by 25%, an average farm would increase its annual revenue from beans by between $27.69 and $125.96 (between 4% and 18% of annual revenue today). Given that such infrastructure development affects all farmers and all crops, our findings suggest a larger implication at the sectorial level.

Understanding how producers make decisions to allot acreage among crops and how decisions about land use are affected by changes in prices and their volatility is fundamental for predicting the supply of staple crops and, hence, assessing the global food supply situation. The innovations of the present paper are estimates of monthly (i.e. seasonal) versus annual global acreage response models for four staple crops: wheat, soybeans, corn and rice. We focus on the impact of (expected) crop prices, oil and fertilizer prices and market risks as main determinants for farmers’ decisions on how to allocate their land. Primary emphasis is given to the magnitude and speed of the allocation process. Estimation of intra-annual acreage elasticity is crucial for expected supply and for input demand, especially in the light of the recent short-term volatility in food prices. Such aggregate estimates are also valuable to verify whether involved country-specific estimations add up to patterns that are apparent in the aggregate international data. The econometric results indicate that global crop acreage responds to crop prices and price risks, input costs as well as a time trend. Depending on respective crop, short-run elasticities are about 0.05 to 0.25; price volatility tends to reduce acreage response of some crops; comparison of the annual and the monthly acreage response elasticities suggests that acreage adjusts seasonally around the globe to new information and expectations. Given the seasonality of agriculture, time is of the essence for acreage response: The analysis indicates that acreage allocation is more sensitive to prices in northern hemisphere spring than in winter and the response varies across months.

Two trends on yields have been observed for rice, wheat, and even edible oils in Asia. The deceleration of yield growth is one of these trends. The other relates to the differential yield increases across countries in the region. This study provides explanations for both trends and relates these to the exhaustion of the yield potential of current technology, emerging threats posed by climate change and other disturbances, varying levels of development across countries and hence the development of infrastructure, among others. Total factor productivity (TFP) estimates for these commodities indicate the potential to overcome these constraints, however. Key determinants of TFP growth were identified and discussed. While the influence of these determinants on the TFP estimates was not tested empirically in this study because of data limitations, evidence of the relationship was clear and strong in numerous TFP studies done for the agriculture sector as a whole, and for rice and wheat in various countries including Asian countries. Long-term growth will have to come from great advances in interventions being undertaken, three of which include (i) major breakthroughs in new varieties and farming systems in both fertile and unfertile lands; (ii) the restructuring of small farms into more efficient, mechanized large-scale operations, especially in production areas with good infrastructure for market access and irrigation; and (iii) the development of market mechanisms to enhance the comparative advantage of domestic production and explore the value-adding potential of commodities, particularly edible oil. Three policy recommendations are also forwarded to achieve these great advances: (i) sustained investment in agriculture; (ii) getting the mix of institutions right; and (iii) gearing up for globalization. The role of development partners as well as the private sector in effecting sustainable growth is briefly discussed as a concluding section.

The characteristics of regional paths of industrialization had a deep impact on agricultural development during early industrialization in Germany. From 1840 rising incomes in the course of a "high wage-low energy cost" industrialization based on coal and steel and a rapid urbanization triggered a demand driven agricultural revolution in Northwest Germany. In contrast, Saxony's early industrialization c. 1800-1860 followed a "low wage-high energy cost" trajectory based on textile production and slow urbanization. The low level and slow growth of income meant that up to 1830 the adaptation of agricultural innovations neither followed demand impulses transmitted through markets, nor did they facilitate inter-regional specialization according to comparative advantage. Rather, regional agriculture ac-commodated to population growth by expanding the cultivation of subsistence crops, mainly potatoes, probably at the detriment of animal husbandry. Whereas the increase of sown area indicates an intensification of land use yield ratios remained at best stable between the early 1790s and the late 1820s. Hence, local supply could barely cope with population growth, and since grain market integration did not evolve over time imports did not com-pensate for the shortcomings of domestic production. Our evidence of a deteriorating food standard goes a long way toward explaining the decline of the biological standard of living during Saxony's early industrialization.

This paper embeds a staggered price feature into the standard speculative storage model of Deaton and Laroque (1996). Intermediate goods inventory speculators are added as an additional source of intertemporal linkage, which helps us to replicate the stylized facts of the observed commodity price dynamics. Incorporating this type of friction into the model is motivated by its ability to increase price stickiness which, gives rise to a higher degree of persistence in the first two conditional moments of commodity prices. The structural parameters of our model are estimated by the simulated method of moments using actual prices for four agricultural commodities. Simulated data are then employed to assess the effects of our staggered price approach on the time series properties of commodity prices. Our results lend empirical support to the possibility of staggered prices.

Im Auftrag des Bundesministeriums für Ernährung, Landwirtschaft und Verbraucherschutz (BMELV) wurden am Thünen-Institut für Betriebswirtschaft verschiedene Analysen durchgeführt, die als Grundlage für die Ausarbeitung einer BMELV-Zukunftsstrategie Gartenbau genutzt werden sollen. Die Untersuchungen dienen der Erarbeitung wettbewerbsrelevanter Informationen, kön-nen jedoch nicht als umfassende Wettbewerbsanalyse angesehen werden. Letztere hätte den zeitlichen Rahmen der Analysen gesprengt. In diesem Working Paper werden die Arbeiten des Thünen-Instituts in diesem Kontext präsentiert und übergreifend interpretiert. Im Einzelnen wurden folgende Untersuchungen zur Wettbewerbsfähigkeit des Gartenbaus in Deutschland durchgeführt: Befragung von Stakeholdern zu den Problemen und Hemmnissen sowie den Chancen und Potenzialen von Strategien für die Entwicklung des deutschen Gartenbaus, deskriptive Analyse des Produktionsgartenbaus anhand von Verkaufserlösen, Verbrauch und Außenhandel, Übersicht über die Struktur des Dienstleistungsgartenbaus in Deutschland, Untersuchung der Rentabilitätsentwicklungen der gärtnerischen Produktionssparten, Analyse der zu erwartenden Nachfrageentwicklungen nach gartenbaulichen Produkten und Dienstleistungen unter dem Einfluss des demografischen Wandels, Bestandsaufnahme wichtiger staatlicher Einflussgrößen im Gartenbau und Organisation, Durchführung und Auswertung des Workshops Kooperationen und Wert-schöpfungsketten im Gartenbau. Im Folgenden werden themenübergreifend von der betrieblichen Ebene ausgehend über Absatz- und Nachfrageaspekte die Kernergebnisse und -schlussfolgerungen dieser Untersuchungen zu-sammengefasst und die wesentlichen Handlungsempfehlungen vorgestellt.Vor dem Hintergrund eines intensiven Strukturwandels, der in allen Sparten des Gartenbaus und insbesondere im Gemüsebau beobachtet werden kann, zeigen die Untersuchungen eine eher mäßige Rentabilität des Gartenbausektors, auch wenn die Flächen- und die Arbeitsproduktivität in den Betrieben aller Sparten in den vergangenen 15 Jahren durchaus gesteigert werden konnten. Negativ auf die Ren-tabilität wirkte vor allem die Steigerung der Kosten von Produktionsfaktoren. Hier sind insbeson-dere die Kosten der Arbeit sowie die der Energie zu nennen. In der Vergangenheit konnten die steigenden Energiekosten durch Innovationen in Technik und Kulturführung weitgehend kom-pensiert werden. Die zukünftigen Handlungsmöglichkeiten zur Abfederung weiterer Energiepreissteigerungen erscheinen jedoch eher begrenzt. Dagegen ist für den Faktor Arbeit zu erwarten, dass die Rationalisierung im Gartenbau fortschreitet, um den Anstieg der Arbeitskosten zu begrenzen. Dafür wird die Entwicklung von neuen Technologien für den Gartenbau auch in Zukunft erforderlich sein. Diese Entwicklung ist insbesondere im Zierpflanzenbau schon relativ weit fortgeschritten. On behalf of the Federal Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Consumer Protection (BMELV) at the Thünen Institute of Farm Economics several analyses were carried out as an information basis for the elaboration of the Ministry's strategy for the future of horticulture in Germany. In this context the analyses presented in this Working Paper aim at providing information on the competi-tiveness of the sector and provides an interpretation of the results with respect to policy recommendations. The following studies on aspects of competitiveness of horticulture in Germany were conducted: a survey among stakeholders on constraints and problems as well as opportunities and potential strategies for the development of German horticulture, a descriptive analysis of the horticultural sector and the foreign trade with horticultural products, an overview of the business structures in the gardening and landscaping sector, an analysis of the developments in profitability of the horticultural branches, an investigation of the expected developments in demand of horticultural products and services considering demographical change, a review of public policy influence on horticulture and the organization, implementation and analysis of a workshop cooperation and value chains in German horticulture. This summary presents the key results and conclusions from these analyses across the studies starting at the level of the horticultural enterprises, followed by aspects of marketing and de-mand of horticultural products and finally derives recommendations. The results show that profits have been rather moderate for all horticultural branches over the past 15 years, despite of intensive structural change, particularly in vegetable production. Yet, both land and labor productivity has increased for horticultural farms of all branches. Increasing costs of production, particularly for energy and labor, have impacted negatively on profitability. The lack of qualified skilled labor is already a problem for many farms and will become more se-vere in the future. A continued mechanization to reduce labor costs is expected. Hence, for the development of the farms in the future, further technology development will be necessary.