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The High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) is a convection-allowing implementation of the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF-ARW) Model that covers the conterminous United States and Alaska and runs hourly (for CONUS; every 3 h for Alaska) in real time at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. The high-resolution forecasts support a variety of user applications including aviation, renewable energy, and prediction of many forms of severe weather. In this second of two articles, forecast performance is documented for a wide variety of forecast variables and across HRRR versions. HRRR performance varies across geographical domain, season, and time of day depending on both prevalence of particular meteorological phenomena and the availability of both conventional and nonconventional observations. Station-based verification of surface weather forecasts (2-m temperature and dewpoint temperature, 10-m winds, visibility, and cloud ceiling) highlights the ability of the HRRR to represent daily planetary boundary layer evolution and the development of convective and stratiform cloud systems, while gridded verification of simulated composite radar reflectivity and quantitative precipitation forecasts reveals HRRR predictive skill for summer and winter precipitation systems. Significant improvements in performance for specific forecast problems are documented for the upgrade versions of the HRRR (HRRRv2, v3, and v4) implemented in 2016, 2018, and 2020, respectively. Development of the HRRR model data assimilation and physics paves the way for future progress with operational convectivescale modeling. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: NOAA's operational hourly updating convection-allowing model, the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR), is a key tool for short-range weather forecasting and situational awareness. Improvements in assimilation of weather observations, as well as in physics parameterizations, has led to improvements in simulated radar reflectivity and quantitative precipitation forecasts since the initial implementation of HRRR in September 2014. Other targeted development has focused on improved representation of the diurnal cycle of the planetary boundary layer, resulting in improved near-surface temperature and humidity forecasts. Additional physics and data assimilation changes have led to improved treatment of the development and erosion of low-level clouds, including subgrid-scale clouds. The final version of HRRR features storm-scale ensemble data assimilation and explicit prediction of wildfire smoke plumes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) is a convection-allowing implementation of the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) Model with hourly data assimilation that covers the conterminous United States and Alaska and runs in real time at the NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Implemented operationally at NOAA/NCEP in 2014, the HRRR features 3-km horizontal grid spacing and frequent forecasts (hourly for CONUS and 3-hourly for Alaska). HRRR initialization is designed for optimal short-range forecast skill with a particular focus on the evolution of precipitating systems. Key components of the initialization are radar-reflectivity data assimilation, hybrid ensemble-variational assimilation of conventional weather observations, and a cloud analysis to initialize stratiform cloud layers. From this initial state, HRRR forecasts are produced out to 18 h every hour, and out to 48 h every 6 h, with boundary conditions provided by the Rapid Refresh system. Between 2014 and 2020, HRRR development was focused on reducing model bias errors and improving forecast realism and accuracy. Improved representation of the planetary boundary layer, subgrid-scale clouds, and land surface contributed extensively to overall HRRR improvements. The final version of the HRRR (HRRRv4), implemented in late 2020, also features hybrid data assimilation using flow-dependent covariances from a 3-km, 36-member ensemble ("HRRRDAS") with explicit convective storms. HRRRv4 also includes prediction of wildfire smoke plumes. The HRRR provides a baseline capability for evaluating NOAA's next-generation Rapid Refresh Forecast System, now under development. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: NOAA's operational hourly updating, convection-allowing model, the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR), is a key tool for short-range weather forecasting and situational awareness. Improvements in assimilation of weather observations, as well as in physics parameterizations, have led to improvements in simulated radar reflectivity and quantitative precipitation forecasts since the initial implementation of HRRR in September 2014. Other targeted development has focused on improved representation of the diurnal cycle of the planetary boundary layer, resulting in improved near-surface temperature and humidity forecasts. Additional physics and data assimilation changes have led to improved treatment of the development and erosion of low-level clouds, including subgrid-scale clouds. The final version of HRRR features storm-scale ensemble data assimilation and explicit prediction of wildfire smoke plumes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate cloud and precipitation forecasts are a fundamental component of short-range data assimilation/model prediction systems such as the NOAA 3-km High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) or the 13-km Rapid Refresh (RAP). To reduce cloud and precipitation spinup problems, a nonvariational assimilation technique for stratiform clouds was developed within the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) data assimilation system. One goal of this technique is retention of observed stratiform cloudy and clear 3D volumes into the subsequent model forecast. The cloud observations used include cloud-top data from satellite brightness temperatures, surface-based ceilometer data, and surface visibility. Quality control, expansion into spatial information content, and forward operators are described for each observation type. The projection of data from these observation types into an observation-based cloud-information 3D gridded field is accomplished via identification of cloudy, clear, and cloud-unknown 3D volumes. Updating of forecast background fields is accomplished through clearing and building of cloud water and cloud ice with associated modifications to water vapor and temperature. Impact of the cloud assimilation on short-range forecasts is assessed with a set of retrospective experiments in warm and cold seasons using the RAPv5 model. Short-range (1–9 h) forecast skill is improved in both seasons for cloud ceiling and visibility and for 2-m temperature in daytime and with mixed results for other measures. Two modifications were introduced and tested with success: use of prognostic subgrid-scale cloud fraction to condition cloud building (in response to a high bias) and removal of a WRF-based rebalancing. Significance Statement: Short-range weather prediction models are particularly dependent on accurate initial representation of the current state of the atmosphere, including clouds. We describe a method for using satellite and surface-based observations of stratiform clouds to update the model cloud state at the initial time. The method is tested with the NOAA RAP model, and leads to improvement for forecast accuracy for several hours including for rare low-cloud events that are important for aviation safety. This stratiform-cloud data assimilation is also applied in the convective-scale HRRR model, where it complements radar/lightning assimilation for convective clouds described elsewhere. Assimilation to provide accurate initial cloud fields is critical to improve forecasts for aviation, energy, and severe weather applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Spurious mountain-wave features have been reported as false alarms of light-or-stronger numerical weather prediction (NWP)-based cruise level turbulence forecasts especially over the western mountainous region of North America. To reduce this problem, a hybrid sigma–pressure vertical coordinate system was implemented in NOAA's operational Rapid Refresh model, version 4 (RAPv4), which has been running in parallel with the conventional terrain-following coordinate system of RAP version 3 (RAPv3). Direct comparison of vertical velocity |w| fields from the RAPv4 and RAPv3 models shows that the new RAPv4 model significantly reduces small-scale spurious vertical velocities induced by the conventional terrain-following coordinate system in the RAPv3. For aircraft-scale turbulence forecasts, |w| and |w|/Richardson number (|w|/Ri) derived from both the RAPv4 and RAPv3 models are converted into energy dissipation rate (EDR) estimates. Then, those EDR-scaled indices are evaluated using more than 1.2 million in situ EDR turbulence reports from commercial aircraft for 4 months (September–December 2017). Scores of the area under receiver operating characteristic curves for the |w|- and |w|/Ri-based EDR forecasts from the RAPv4 are 0.69 and 0.83, which is statistically significantly improved over the RAPv3 of 0.63 and 0.77, respectively. The new RAPv4 became operational on 12 July 2018 and provides better guidance for operational turbulence forecasting over North America. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study describes the initial application of radiance bias correction and channel selection in the hourly updated Rapid Refresh model. For this initial application, data from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) are used; this dataset gives atmospheric temperature and water vapor information at higher vertical resolution and accuracy than previously launched low-spectral resolution satellite systems. In this preliminary study, data from AIRS are shown to add skill to short-range weather forecasts over a relatively data-rich area. Two 1-month retrospective runs were conducted to evaluate the impact of assimilating clear-sky AIRS radiance data on 1-12-h forecasts using a research version of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Rapid Refresh (RAP) regional mesoscale model already assimilating conventional and other radiance [AMSU-A, Microwave Humidity Sounder (MHS), HIRS-4] data. Prior to performing the assimilation, a channel selection and bias-correction spinup procedure was conducted that was appropriate for the RAP configuration. RAP forecasts initialized from analyses with and without AIRS data were verified against radiosonde, surface atmosphere, precipitation, and satellite radiance observations. Results show that the impact from AIRS radiance data on short-range forecast skill in the RAP system is small but positive and statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. The RAP-specific channel selection and bias correction procedures described in this study were the basis for similar applications to other radiance datasets now assimilated in version 3 of RAP implemented at NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) in August 2016. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The land surface model (LSM) described in this manuscript was originally developed as part of the NOAA Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) model development effort; with ongoing modifications, it is now used as an option for the WRF community model. The RUC model and its WRF-based NOAA successor, the Rapid Refresh (RAP), are hourly updated and have an emphasis on short-range, near-surface forecasts including aviation-impact variables and preconvective environment. Therefore, coupling to this LSM (hereafter the RUC LSM) has been critical to provide more accurate lower boundary conditions. This paper describes changes made to the RUC LSM since earlier descriptions, including extension from six to nine levels, improved snow treatment, and new land-use data from MODIS. The RUC LSM became operational at the NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) as part of the RUC from 1998-2012 and as part of the RAP from 2012 through the present. The simple treatments of basic land surface processes in the RUC LSM have proven to be physically robust and capable of realistically representing the evolution of soil moisture, soil temperature, and snow in cycled models. Extension of the RAP domain to encompass all of North America and adjacent high-latitude ocean areas necessitated further development of the RUC LSM for application in the tundra permafrost regions and over Arctic sea ice. Other modifications include refinements in the snow model and a more accurate specification of albedo, roughness length, and other surface properties. These recent modifications in the RUC LSM are described and evaluated in this paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Rapid Refresh (RAP) and High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR), both operational at NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) use the Thompson et al. mixed-phase bulk cloud microphysics scheme. This scheme permits predicted surface precipitation to simultaneously consist of rain, snow, and graupel at the same location under certain conditions. Here, the explicit precipitation-type diagnostic method is described as used in conjunction with the Thompson et al. scheme in the RAP and HRRR models. The postprocessing logic combines the explicitly predicted multispecies hydrometeor data and other information from the model forecasts to produce fields of surface precipitation type that distinguish between rain and freezing rain, and to also portray areas of mixed precipitation. This explicit precipitation-type diagnostic method is used with the NOAA operational RAP and HRRR models. Verification from two winter seasons from 2013 to 2015 is provided against METAR surface observations. An example of this product from a January 2015 south-central United States winter storm is also shown. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Rapid Refresh (RAP), an hourly updated assimilation and model forecast system, replaced the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) as an operational regional analysis and forecast system among the suite of models at the NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) in 2012. The need for an effective hourly updated assimilation and modeling system for the United States for situational awareness and related decision-making has continued to increase for various applications including aviation (and transportation in general), severe weather, and energy. The RAP is distinct from the previous RUC in three primary aspects: a larger geographical domain (covering North America), use of the community-based Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model (ARW) replacing the RUC forecast model, and use of the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation analysis system (GSI) instead of the RUC three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVar). As part of the RAP development, modifications have been made to the community ARW model (especially in model physics) and GSI assimilation systems, some based on previous model and assimilation design innovations developed initially with the RUC. Upper-air comparison is included for forecast verification against both rawinsondes and aircraft reports, the latter allowing hourly verification. In general, the RAP produces superior forecasts to those from the RUC, and its skill has continued to increase from 2012 up to RAP version 3 as of 2015. In addition, the RAP can improve on persistence forecasts for the 1-3-h forecast range for surface, upper-air, and ceiling forecasts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Because of limitations of variational and ensemble data assimilation schemes, resulting analysis fields exhibit some noise from imbalance in subsequent model forecasts. Controlling finescale noise is desirable in the NOAA's Rapid Refresh (RAP) assimilation/forecast system, which uses an hourly data assimilation cycle. Hence, a digital filter initialization (DFI) capability has been introduced into the Weather Research and Forecasting Model and applied operationally in the RAP, for which hourly intermittent assimilation makes DFI essential. A brief overview of the DFI approach, its implementation, and some of its advantages are discussed. Results from a 1-week impact test with and without DFI demonstrate that DFI is effective at reducing high-frequency noise in short-term operational forecasts as well as providing evidence of reduced errors in the 1-h mass and momentum fields. However, DFI is also shown to reduce the strength of parameterized deep moist convection during the first hour of the forecast. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A hydrostatic global weather prediction model based on an icosahedral horizontal grid and a hybrid terrain-following/isentropic vertical coordinate is described. The model is an extension to three spatial dimensions of a previously developed, icosahedral, shallow-water model featuring user-selectable horizontal resolution and employing indirect addressing techniques. The vertical grid is adaptive to maximize the portion of the atmosphere mapped into the isentropic coordinate subdomain. The model, best described as a stacked shallow-water model, is being tested extensively on real-time medium-range forecasts to ready it for possible inclusion in operational multimodel ensembles for medium-range to seasonal prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]