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Background & Aims: Drug development in nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is hampered by a high screening failure rate that reaches 60% to 80% in therapeutic trials, mainly because of the absence of fibrotic NASH on baseline liver histology. MACK-3, a blood test including 3 biomarkers (aspartate aminotransferase, homeostasis model assessment, and cytokeratin 18), recently was developed for the noninvasive diagnosis of fibrotic NASH. We aimed to validate the diagnostic accuracy of this noninvasive test in an international multicenter study., Methods: A total of 1924 patients with biopsy-proven nonalcoholic fatty liver disease from 10 centers in Asia, Australia, and Europe were included. The blood test MACK-3 was calculated for all patients. FibroScan-aspartate aminotransferase score (FAST), an elastography-based test for fibrotic NASH, also was available in a subset of 655 patients. Fibrotic NASH was defined as the presence of NASH on liver biopsy with a Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease Activity Score of 4 or higher and fibrosis stage of F2 or higher according to the NASH Clinical Research Network scoring system., Results: The area under the receiver operating characteristic of MACK-3 for fibrotic NASH was 0.791 (95% CI 0.768-0.814). Sensitivity at the previously published MACK-3 threshold of less than 0.135 was 91% and specificity at a greater than 0.549 threshold was 85%. The MACK-3 area under the receiver operating characteristic was not affected by age, sex, diabetes, or body mass index. MACK-3 and FAST results were well correlated (Spearman correlation coefficient, 0.781; P < .001). Except for an 8% higher rate of patients included in the grey zone, MACK-3 provided similar accuracy to that of FAST. Both tests included 27% of patients in their rule-in zone, with 85% specificity and 35% false positives (screen failure rate)., Conclusions: The blood test MACK-3 is an accurate tool to improve patient selection in NASH therapeutic trials., (Copyright © 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Unlike for advanced liver fibrosis, the practical rules for the early non-invasive diagnosis of cirrhosis in NAFLD remain not well defined. Here, we report the derivation and validation of a stepwise diagnostic algorithm in 1568 patients with NAFLD and liver biopsy coming from four independent cohorts. The study algorithm, using first the elastography-based tests Agile3+ and Agile4 and then the specialized blood tests FibroMeter V3G and CirrhoMeter V3G , provides stratification in four groups, the last of which is enriched in cirrhosis (71% prevalence in the validation set). A risk prediction chart is also derived to allow estimation of the individual probability of cirrhosis. The predicted risk shows excellent calibration in the validation set, and mean difference with perfect prediction is only -2.9%. These tools improve the personalized non-invasive diagnosis of cirrhosis in NAFLD., (© 2023. Springer Nature Limited.)

Background & Aims: Noninvasive tests (NITs) of liver fibrosis have been suggested to be less accurate in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). We aimed to compare the accuracy of 6 NITs between patients with or without T2DM, explain any differences, and adapt diagnostic algorithms for clinical practice accordingly., Methods: We included 1051 patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease with liver biopsy, blood fibrosis tests (Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease Fibrosis Score, FIB4, Fibrotest, FibroMeter), vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE), and the combinatory elasto-blood test FibroMeter VCTE . The study endpoint was advanced fibrosis on liver biopsy., Results: NIT areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve were significantly lower in patients with T2DM, mostly because of a decrease in specificity. For FIB4, this decrease in specificity was only related to the higher age of patients with T2DM enrolled. For Fibrotest, FibroMeter, and FibroMeter VCTE , the decrease in specificity was related to age but also to higher alpha2-macroglobulin level, which is known to increase in T2DM. Sensitivity was unaffected by T2DM, but it masked a doubled raw number of false negatives because of the 2-fold higher prevalence of advanced fibrosis in that setting. The sequential algorithm FIB4-vibration-controlled transient elastography had 90.3% accuracy in patients without T2DM vs 79.0% in those with (P < .001). Algorithms using first-line specialized tests maintained a low rate of false negatives and false positives in T2DM., Conclusions: The decrease in NIT accuracy observed in T2DM is partly biased by the different characteristics of the groups studied, but also linked to T2DM itself through modification of the levels of some NIT biomarkers. Specialized tests should be used first-line to diagnose advanced liver fibrosis in T2DM., (Copyright © 2023 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background and Aims: The European Association for the Study of the Liver (EASL) has recently proposed an algorithm for the diagnosis of advanced liver fibrosis. We aimed to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of this algorithm in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD)., Approach and Results: One thousand fifty-one patients with NAFLD, liver biopsy, and four noninvasive tests (NITs; Fibrosis-4 [FIB4], vibration controlled transient elastography [VCTE], FibroMeter, Fibrotest) were included. The enhanced liver fibrosis (ELF) score was available in 396 patients. A cohort of 230 patients from primary care/diabetes clinics had FIB4, VCTE, and ELF. Compared with the performance of single NITs, agreement between two NITs (FIB4 and VCTE, VCTE and patented serum tests) increased specificity and positive predictive value by 20%, thus justifying the sequential use proposed in the EASL algorithm. The FIB4/VCTE/FibroMeter and FIB4/VCTE/Fibrotest algorithms performed similarly, providing 85% diagnostic accuracy and a liver biopsy requirement rate of only 10%. The FIB4/VCTE/ELF algorithm performed similarly in the subgroup where ELF was available. Simulations of algorithm accuracies at different prevalence showed that positive predictive values rapidly increased, reaching a plateau above 75% starting at 15% prevalence. Negative predictive values remained higher than 90% up to 25% prevalence. The rate of liver biopsy requirement remained stable, increasing by only 5% between low and high prevalence settings. When the EASL algorithm was applied in the primary care/diabetes clinic cohort, liver biopsy requirement was only 3%, and the agreement among the three steps provided 75% positive predictive value., Conclusions: Our study validates the algorithm proposed by the EASL in its latest 2021 guidelines for the diagnosis of advanced fibrosis in the setting of NAFLD., (Copyright © 2023 American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases.)

Background & Aims: Currently available non-invasive tests, including fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4) and liver stiffness measurement (LSM by VCTE), are highly effective at excluding advanced fibrosis (AF) (F ≥3) or cirrhosis in people with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), but only have moderate ability to rule-in these conditions. Our objective was to develop and validate two new scores (Agile 4 and Agile 3+) to identify cirrhosis or AF, respectively, with optimized positive predictive value and fewer indeterminate results, in individuals with NAFLD attending liver clinics., Methods: This international study included seven adult cohorts with suspected NAFLD who underwent liver biopsy, LSM and blood sampling during routine clinical practice or screening for trials. The population was randomly divided into a training set and an internal validation set, on which the best-fitting logistic regression model was built, and performance and goodness of fit were assessed, respectively. Furthermore, both scores were externally validated on two large cohorts. Cut-offs for high sensitivity and specificity were derived in the training set to rule-out and rule-in cirrhosis or AF and then tested in the validation set and compared to FIB-4 and LSM., Results: Each score combined LSM, AST/ALT ratio, platelets, sex and diabetes status, as well as age for Agile 3+. Calibration plots for Agile 4 and Agile 3+ indicated satisfactory to excellent goodness of fit. Agile 4 and Agile 3+ outperformed FIB-4 and LSM in terms of AUROC, percentage of patients with indeterminate results and positive predictive value to rule-in cirrhosis or AF., Conclusions: The two novel non-invasive scores improve identification of cirrhosis or AF among individuals with NAFLD attending liver clinics and reduce the need for liver biopsy in this population., Impact and Implications: Non-invasive tests currently used to identify patients with advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis, such as fibrosis-4 index and liver stiffness measurement by vibration-controlled transient elastography, have high negative predictive values but high false positive rates, while results are indeterminate for a large number of cases. This study provides scores that will help the clinician diagnose advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis. These new easy-to-implement scores will help liver specialists to better identify (1) patients who need more intensive follow-up, (2) patients who should be referred for inclusion in therapeutic trials, and (3) which patients should be treated with pharmacological agents when effective therapies are approved., (Copyright © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Background and Aims: Bariatric surgery provides a useful opportunity to perform intraoperative liver biopsy to screen for non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). There is currently no consensus on whether intraoperative liver biopsy should be systematically performed. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a decision tree to guide that choice., Approach and Results: This prospective study included 102 consecutive patients from the severe obesity outcome network (SOON) cohort in whom liver biopsy was systematically performed during bariatric surgery. A classification and regression tree (CART) was created to identify the nodes that best classified patients with and without NASH. External validation was performed. Seventy-one biopsies were of sufficient quality for analysis (median body mass index 43.3 [40.7; 48.0] kg/m 2 ). NASH was diagnosed in 32.4% of cases. None of the patients with no steatosis on ultrasound had NASH. The only CART node that differentiated between a "high-risk" and a "low-risk" of NASH was alanine aminotransferase (ALT). ALT>53IU/L predicted NASH with a positive predictive value (PPV) of 68% and a negative predictive value (NPP) of 89%, a sensitivity of 77%, and a specificity of 84%. In the external cohort (n=258), PPV was 68%, NPV was 62%, sensitivity was 27%, and specificity was 90%., Conclusions: The present work supports intraoperative liver biopsy to screen for NASH in patients with ALT>53IU/L; however, patients with no steatosis on ultrasound should not undergo biopsy. The CART failed to identify an algorithm with a good sensitivity to screen for NASH in patients with ultrasonography-proven steatosis and ALT≤53IU/L.

Rationale: Chronic intermittent hypoxia occurring in obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is independently associated with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has also been suggested to be linked with liver disease., Objective: In this individual participant data meta-analysis, we investigated the association between liver damage and OSA and COPD severity., Methods and Measurements: Patients suspected of OSA underwent polysomnography (PSG) or home sleep apnea testing (HSAT). Non-invasive tests were used to evaluate liver steatosis (Hepatic Steatosis Index) and fibrosis (Fibrotest or FibroMeter). An individual participant data meta-analysis approach was used to determine if the severity of OSA/COPD affects the type and severity of liver disease. Results were confirmed by multivariate and causal mediation analysis. Sub-group analyses were performed to investigate specific populations., Main Results: Among 2120 patients, 1584 had steatosis (75%). In multivariable analysis, risk factors for steatosis were an apnea-hypopnea index (AHI) > 5/h, body mass index (BMI) > 26 kg/m 2 , age, type 2 diabetes (all p-values <0.01) and male gender (p = 0.02). Concerning fibrosis, among 2218 patients 397 had fibrosis (18%). Risk factors associated with fibrosis were BMI>26 kg/m 2 , age, male gender, and type 2 diabetes (all p-values <0.01). AHI severity was not associated with fibrosis. A combination of AHI >30/h and COPD stage 1 was associated with an increased risk of steatosis., Conclusion: This meta-analysis confirms the strong association between steatosis and the severity of OSA. The relation between OSA and fibrosis is mainly due to BMI as shown by causal mediation analysis., (Copyright © 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)