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Treasury Market Summary: equity bulls rushed in to buy the dip after Wall Street registered small declines when all was said and done Wednesday after the FOMC's jumbo rate cut. [...]

FOMC forecast revisions released with the FOMC statement showed surprising downward revisions in the 2024 GDP forecasts relative to the June SEP, leaving a central tendency of 1.9%-2.1% that undershoots [...]

FOMC forecast revisions to be released Wednesday with the FOMC statement will be scrutinized, especially the dot plot, for clues on the rate path. The market is currently pricing in [...]

Market Action: Treasury yields richened slightly in the wake of the rise in jobless claims, ignoring the slightly hotter PPI numbers. The data are in line with a quarter point [...]

Looking Ahead: the CPI is out of the way after surprising and disappointing uptick in the core rate, as well as the Powell's 'supercore' rate, services excluding housing, which rose [...]

U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased 142k in August, below expectations. Additionally, the prior two months were revised down a net -86k, with July now at an 89k (was 114k) gain and [...]

Treasury Market Summary: a mix of data left the markets choppy in relatively tentative trading awaiting the crucial August jobs report. Weaker than expected ADP private payrolls and a slight [...]

U.S. nonfarm payroll preview: analysts're forecasting a 175k increase in August nonfarm payrolls. This would follow gains of 114k in July, 179k in June, and 216k in May, and it [...]

Market Update: Treasury yields popped higher on the upward revision in Q2 GDP amid strength in consumption. The dip in jobless claims and the rise in the GDP price index [...]

Fed funds futures are reflecting -33 bps in cuts by September, fully priced for a -25 bp cut, and some 35% risk for a -50 bp reduction. The market awaits [...]

U.S. week ahead: Fed Chair Powell's Jackson Hole speech next Friday is the highlight of a thin slate ahead. His stance should be in line his July 31 press conference, [...]

Market Action: it appears the fears of the economy's contraction were greatly exaggerated. The hotter than expected combo of retail sales and initial jobless claims are further wiping out expectations [...]

Treasury Market Summary: trading was choppy and rather directionless midweek as the markets failed to get fresh direction from CPI, while turning attention to Thursday's retail sales, and jobless claims, [...]

Looking Ahead: attention turns to Thursday's reports on retail sales and jobless claims for clues on a -25 bp or a -50 bp September rate cut. Also on tap are [...]

Market Update: Treasuries have reversed post-CPI losses and yields are modestly lower on the session as the market still looks for rate cuts this year, but with less risk for [...]

Market Update: European stock markets have pared early gains and are slightly lower, after a largely stronger close across Asia. Japanese indexes rallied and the Nikkei closed 3.5% higher as [...]

Fed Governor Bowman said inflation is still 'uncomfortably above the Committee's 2% goal,' in comments at a banking conference on Saturday. She is an important voice on the Fed and [...]

Market Update: Equities remained supported and European indexes are broadly higher, as are U.S. futures. DAX and FTSE 100 are off session highs, but still up 0.4% and 0.5% respectively, [...]

Market Update: The equity rally that boosted Wall Street on Thursday, started to fizzle out overnight. A decline in U.S. initial jobless claims helped to boost sentiment yesterday, but risk [...]

Market Action: the markets are hyper-focused on weekly jobless claims today, given the lack of other data this week. The FOMC typically warns against focusing on one month's data, so [...]

U.S. jobless claims preview: all eyes are on initial jobless claims Thursday as analysts look for more info to help corroborate or refute the signs of cooling from Friday's nonfarm [...]

Fed policy outlook: the flight to safety trades that knocked Treasury yields sharply lower also boosted Fed funds futures. The market priced in a -50 bp rate cut last Friday [...]

Treasury Market Summary: Treasury yields and Wall Street plunged after weaker than expected data on ISM manufacturing and jobless claims. The markets read the reports as more evidence of a [...]

Market Update: Treasury yields are lower, erasing overnight losses after a bullish set of numbers on jobless claims and productivity. The data are further underpinning market expectations for a September [...]

U.S. initial jobless claims bounced 14k to 249k in the week ended July 27 after falling -10k to 235k previously. Today's level is the highest since August. The 4-week moving [...]

Treasury Market Summary: the markets rallied after the day's mix of data supported the soft-landing narrative. But trading was choppy in the immediate aftermath of the mix in the headlines [...]

Attention turns to jobless claims and Q2 GDP Thursday ahead of the PCE numbers on Friday for more clues on the FOMC's policy path. There was a lot of talk [...]

U.S. initial jobless claims popped 20k to 243k in the July 13 week, well above expectations and unwinding all of the -16k drop to 223k (was 222k) previously. It ties [...]

Market Action: Treasury yields plunged on the broadbased softening in CPI, along with the drop in jobless claims, that further open the door for Fed rate cuts. Hence, the front [...]

Market Update: Treasuries are unwinding their small overnight losses and yields are richer on the session. The rise in jobless claims is helping the market recover, with some spillover from [...]

U.S. attention will be on jobs data with JOLTS due Tuesday, jobless claims Wednesday, and nonfarm payrolls Friday. The markets will be checking to see if the labor market continues [...]

Market Action: Treasuries are firmer, recovering from recent losses after today's mixed data reports. The higher than expected jobless claims figures and the downward revisions to consumption in the GDP [...]

FOMC's data dependent posture will get several key inputs this holiday abbreviated week. Upcoming economic reports include May retail sales, industrial production, the June Philly Fed manufacturing index, jobless claims [...]

Treasury Market Summary: tame inflation, weaker than expected jobless claims, the plunge in consumer confidence, and rising geopolitical risks kept a solid bid in Treasuries and overshadowed the hawkish hold [...]

Market Action: Treasuries extended small overnight gains after another soft inflation report and a pop in jobless claims, both supporting market hopes for easing as soon as September, and the [...]

FOMC forecast revisions released with the FOMC statement revealed downward Q4/Q4 GDP forecast revisions that were a tad smaller than assumed for 2024 but larger than assumed for 2025. Analysts [...]

FOMC forecast revisions to be released on June 12 with the FOMC statement will likely show modest trimmings for the high-end Q4/Q4 GDP forecasts for 2024, given a central tendency [...]

Treasury Market Summary: trading was more consolidative today after the week's rally in Treasuries and the pop on Wall Street Wednesday. Slightly better selling was seen into the May jobs [...]

U.S. data slate is light this week and the economic calendar is empty today. The reports on tap, however, are likely to reflect slowing in the economy that should help [...]

Fed funds futures are marginally firmer following the pop in jobless claims. But the advance has been limited as the claims increase looks idiosyncratic. Nevertheless, bets for rate cuts, starting [...]

U.S. initial jobless claims climbed 22k to 231k in the week ended May 4, above expectations and is is the highest since late August. Claims edged up 1k to 209k [...]

Market Update: Treasuries have turned mixed following the still-lean jobless claims data and the disappointing productivity, unit labor cost report. These numbers will not give the FOMC any added confidence [...]

U.S. initial jobless claims were unchanged at 208k in the week ended April 27 following the -4k drop to that level (was 207k) in the prior week. It is the [...]

U.S. initial jobless claims were unchanged at 212k in the week ended April 13 after sinking -10k to that level (was 211k) in the first week of April. Note that [...]

U.S. initial jobless claims tumbled -11k to 211k in the week ended April 6, tighter than expected.It erases the 10k increase to 222k (was 221k) in the March 30 week, [...]

The most challenging issue today is widespread unemployment. The cry everywhere is for jobs. The unemployment rate ranges from 10 per cent (for age 15-29) to 42.3 per cent (for [...]

Byline: Marc Lutz Idaho's employers are being encouraged to use a digital process to respond to unemployment claims. On April 3, the Idaho Department of Labor reminded employers that its [...]