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Anxiety and depression are studied thoroughly in patients with advanced cancer. However, little is known about the nature of mood disorders in this stage of the disease. We studied positive and negative affect in patients who have had a diagnosis of advanced cancer, and examined how these are related to anxiety and depression, and to other patient and care factors. One hundred and five patients filled out a written questionnaire and were interviewed personally. The PANAS positive affect scores were lower than those in the general population, but the negative affect scores were fairly similar. We found a rather low prevalence of depression (13%) and anxiety (8%) as measured by the HADS. The emotional problems patients mentioned most frequently were anxiety about metastases (26%), the unpredictability of the future (18%) and anxiety about physical suffering (15%). Both positive and negative affect were most strongly related to patient's sense of meaning and peace. We conclude that distinguishing positive and negative affect enhances the understanding of psychological distress of patients with advanced cancer, that seems to be mainly caused by low levels of positive affect. Several theories are discussed to explain this finding, that may contribute to efforts to improve care for these patients. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The characteristics and frequency of clinical problems with the performance of euthanasia and physician-assisted suicide are uncertain. We analyzed data from two studies of euthanasia and physician-assisted suicide in The Netherlands (one conducted in 1990 and 1991 and the other in 1995 and 1996), with a total of 649 cases. We categorized clinical problems as technical problems, such as difficulty inserting an intravenous line; complications, such as myoclonus or vomiting; or problems with completion, such as a longer-than-expected interval between the administration of medications and death.In 114 cases, the physician's intention was to provide assistance with suicide, and in 535, the intention was to perform euthanasia. Problems of any type were more frequent in cases of assisted suicide than in cases of euthanasia. Complications occurred in 7 percent of cases of assisted suicide, and problems with completion (a longer-than-expected time to death, failure to induce coma, or induction of coma followed by awakening of the patient) occurred in 16 percent of the cases; complications and problems with completion occurred in 3 percent and 6 percent of cases of euthanasia, respectively. The physician decided to administer a lethal medication in 21 of the cases of assisted suicide (18 percent), which thus became cases of euthanasia. The reasons for this decision included problems with completion (in 12 cases) and the inability of the patient to take all the medications (in 5).There may be clinical problems with the performance of euthanasia and physician-assisted suicide. In The Netherlands, physicians who intend to provide assistance with suicide sometimes end up administering a lethal medication themselves because of the patient's inability to take the medication or because of problems with the completion of physician-assisted suicide.

Objectives To investigate the impact of the population based breast screening programme on total uptake of mammography in the Netherlands. Setting The Netherlands; breast screening programme for women aged 50–69; 21 820 women who participated in the 1991–96 Health Interview Survey (HIS). Methods HIS data linked to data related to the start of the screening programme in different municipalities investigating mammography use, reasons for mammography, and further assessment procedures. Results Among women aged 50–69 the percentage who had recently undergone mammography (in the year of the HIS or two years before) increased from 20% in 1991 to 70% in 1996, which was entirely due to screening. The percentage of women in this age group who had had a recent clinical mammogram (outside the screening programme) varied between 8 and 12% and did not change significantly in municipalities without screening. There was no change in the uptake of mammography among women under 50 years of age. Among women over 70 there was only a small increase in this percentage from 6 to 13%, partially due to screening mammograms. In municipalities in which screening had started, precaution is mentioned as a reason for a recent clinical mammogram among women aged less than 70 more often than in municipalities without screening. Furthermore, mammography performed because of complaints is mentioned less in all age groups after the introduction of screening. After a clinical mammogram, further assessment procedures (cytology/needle biopsies 8%, biopsies 10%) were considered necessary about 10 times more often than after a screening mammogram. Conclusions Although the screening programme has almost no impact on the frequency of mammography in women who underwent a clinical mammogram, there has been a shift in reasons for these mammograms more towards reasons of prevention. Screening mammograms lead to a much smaller percentage of additional examinations than do clinical mammograms.

Introducing an organised breast cancer screening programme for certain age groups in a population might induce opportunistic screening in adjacent (non-invited) age groups and influence health behaviour in the target population. We analysed the effect of the start of the Dutch national screening programme on the number of mammographies requested by 43-45 general practices for the age groups 30-39, 40-49, 50-69 and 70+ years, using logistic regression analysis. In all age groups an immediate increase was observed in the number of mammography requests after the start of the screening, which was largest and statistically significant in the target population of the screening programme (age 50-69 years). More than 2 years after the start of screening, the number of mammography requests in all age groups had decreased to the level before the start and in the age group 50-69 years the number of mammographies was significantly lower than before the screening started. The unexpected increase in mammographies after the start of the breast cancer screening programme might be related to registry problems or to the process of building up the screening programme. Eventually there was a decrease in the number of mammographies in the target population, probably an effect of the introduction of the national screening programme. Opportunistic screening was not clearly demonstrated in adjacent age groups.

The nationwide breast cancer screening programme in The Netherlands for women aged 50–69 started in 1989. In our study we assessed the occurrence and stage distribution of interval cancers in women screened during 1990–1993. Records of 0.84 million screened women were linked to the regional cancer registries yielding a follow-up of at least 2.5 years. Age-adjusted incidence rates and relative (proportionate) incidences per tumour size including ductal carcinoma in-situ were calculated for screen-detected and interval cancers, and cancers in not (yet) screened women, comparing them with published data from the UK regions North West and East Anglia. In total 1527 interval cancers were identified: 0.95 and 0.99 per 1000 woman-years of follow-up in the 2-year interval after initial and subsequent screens respectively. In the first year after initial screening interval cancers amounted to 27% (26% after subsequent screens) of underlying incidence, and in the second year to 52% (55%). Generally, interval cancers had a more favourable tumour size distribution than breast cancer in not (yet) screened women. The Dutch programme detected relatively less (favourable) invasive cancers in initial screens than the UK programme, whereas the number of interval cancers confirms UK findings. Measures should be considered to improve the detection of small invasive cancers and to reduce false-negative rates, even if this will lead to increasing referral rates. © 1999 Cancer Research Campaign

Objective. End-of-life decisions for newborn infants are usually made with the consent of parents as well as physicians, but may occasionally involve disagreement about which decision is in the best interest of the child. Our study was aimed at providing an empirical background for the ethical discussion on the parent's versus the physician's role in decision-making.Methods. We conducted face-to-face interviews with a stratified sample of pediatricians. The response rate was 99%. The most recent decisions in newborn infants to hasten death or not prolong life and the most recent cases in which such decisions were not made because either the parents or the physician objected were comprehensively discussed.Results. Decisions to hasten death or not prolong life were usually made after discussing it with parents and did not occur while parents were known to disagree. Situations in which an end-of-life decision was not made because parents did not consent predominantly involved infants with complications of prematurity (24%) or perinatal asphyxia (40%), whereas situations in which parents requested an end-of-life decision that was not acceded to by the pediatrician involved Down syndrome as the main diagnosis in 43% and as a concurrent diagnosis in 21%. Pediatricians afterwards often expressed feelings of discontent about situations in which there had been disagreement with parents.Conclusions. The opinion of parents about which medical decision is in the best interest of their child is for pediatricians only decisive in case it invokes the continuation of treatment. The principle of preserving life is abandoned only when the physician feels sufficiently sure that the parents agree that such a course of action is in the best interest of the child.

Background: Population-based screening for prostate cancer is currently being evaluated in randomized clinical trials in the United States and in Europe. Side effects arising from the process of screening and from the earlier treatment of screen-detected prostate cancer may be important factors in the evaluation. To examine health-related quality of life (or health status) among men screened for prostate cancer, we conducted a longitudinal study of 626 attenders to the Rotterdam (The Netherlands) prostate cancer screening program and of 500 nonparticipants. Methods: Attenders of the screening program and nonparticipants completed self-assessment questionnaires (SF-36 [i.e., Medical Outcomes Study 36-Item Short-Form Health Survey] and EQ-5D [i.e., EuroQol measure for health-related quality of life] health surveys) to measure generic health status, as well as an additional questionnaire for anxiety and items relating to prostate cancer screening. Results: Physical discomfort during digital rectal examination and during transrectal ultrasound was reported by 181 (37%) of 491 men and by 139 (29%) of 487 men, respectively; discomfort during prostate biopsy was reported by 64 (55%) of 116 men. Mean scores for health status and anxiety indicated that the participants did not experience relevant changes in physical, psychological, and social functioning during the screening procedure. However, high levels of anxiety were observed throughout the screening process among men with a high predisposition to anxiety. Similar scores for anxiety predisposition were observed among attenders and nonparticipants. Conclusions : At the group level, we did not find evidence that prostate cancer screening induced important short-term health-status effects, despite the short-lasting side effects related to the biopsy procedure. However, subgroups may experience high levels of anxiety. The implication is that unfavorable health-status effects of prostate cancer screening occur mainly in the treatment phase.

Although smoking cessation is desirable from a public health perspective, its consequences with respect to health care costs are still debated. Smokers have more disease than nonsmokers, but nonsmokers live longer and can incur more health costs at advanced ages. We analyzed health care costs for smokers and nonsmokers and estimated the economic consequences of smoking cessation.We used three life tables to examine the effect of smoking on health care costs - one for a mixed population of smokers and nonsmokers, one for a population of smokers, and one for a population of nonsmokers. We also used a dynamic method to estimate the effects of smoking cessation on health care costs over time.Health care costs for smokers at a given age are as much as 40 percent higher than those for nonsmokers, but in a population in which no one smoked the costs would be 7 percent higher among men and 4 percent higher among women than the costs in the current mixed population of smokers and nonsmokers. If all smokers quit, health care costs would be lower at first, but after 15 years they would become higher than at present. In the long term, complete smoking cessation would produce a net increase in health care costs, but it could still be seen as economically favorable under reasonable assumptions of discount rate and evaluation period.If people stopped smoking, there would be a savings in health care costs, but only in the short term. Eventually, smoking cessation would lead to increased health care costs.

In 1991 a new procedure for reporting physician-assisted deaths was introduced in the Netherlands that led to a tripling in the number of reported cases. In 1995, as part of an evaluation of this procedure, a nationwide study of euthanasia and other medical practices concerning the end of life was begun that was identical to a study conducted in 1990.We conducted two studies, the first involving interviews with 405 physicians (general practitioners, nursing home physicians, and clinical specialists) and the second involving questionnaires mailed to the physicians attending 6060 deaths that were identified from death certificates. The response rates were 89 percent and 77 percent, respectively.Among the deaths studied, 2.3 percent of those in the interview study and 2.4 percent of those in the death-certificate study were estimated to have resulted from euthanasia, and 0.4 percent and 0.2 percent, respectively, resulted from physician-assisted suicide. In 0.7 percent of cases, life was ended without the explicit, concurrent request of the patient. Pain and symptoms were alleviated with doses of opioids that may have shortened life in 14.7 to 19.1 percent of cases, and decisions to withhold or withdraw life-prolonging treatment were made in 20.2 percent. Euthanasia seems to have increased in incidence since 1990, and ending of life without the patient's explicit request to have decreased slightly. For each type of medical decision except those in which life-prolonging treatment was withheld or withdrawn, cancer was the most frequently reported diagnosis.Since the notification procedure was introduced, end-of-life decision making in the Netherlands has changed only slightly, in an anticipated direction. Close monitoring of such decisions is possible, and we found no signs of an unacceptable increase in the number of decisions or of less careful decision making.

In The Netherlands, as in many other countries, many studies have addressed the health situation of migrant groups. After a discussion on methodological pitfalls in migrant studies, the article reviews the most important results. The data show that there are differences in the health status and mortality patterns between migrant groups and the indigenous population. Most, but not all, of the differences are in disfavour of ethnic groups. Possible determinants of these differences are evident in socio/cultural, genetic and socio-economic factors. A model is presented that demonstrates the relation between these factors and health and disease. Implications for research and for health policy are discussed.

Objectives: To investigate why physicians label end-of-life acts as either ‘euthanasia/ending of life’ or ‘alleviation of symptoms/palliative or terminal sedation’, and to study the association of such labelling with intended reporting of these acts. Methods: Questionnaires were sent to a random, stratified sample of 2100 Dutch physicians (response: 55%). They were asked to label six hypothetical end-of-life cases: three ‘standard’ cases and three cases randomly selected (out of 47), that varied according to (1) type of medication, (2) physician’s intention, (3) type of patient request, (4) patient’s life expectancy and (5) time until death. We identified the extent to which characteristics of cases are associated with physician’s labelling, with multilevel multivariable logistic regression. Results: The characteristics that contributed most to labelling cases as ‘euthanasia/ending of life’ were the administration of muscle relaxants (99% of these cases were labelled as ‘euthanasia/ending of life’) or disproportional morphine (63% of these cases were labelled accordingly). Other important factors were an intention to hasten death (54%) and a life expectancy of several months (46%). Physicians were much more willing to report cases labelled as ‘euthanasia’ (87%) or ‘ending of life’ (56%) than other cases. Conclusions: Similar cases are not uniformly labelled. However, a physicians’ label is strongly associated with their willingness to report their acts. Differences in how physicians label similar acts impede complete societal control. Further education and debate could enhance the level of agreement about what is physician-assisted dying, and thus should be reported, and what not.

Mammographic screening for women aged 50-70 is effective in reducing breast cancer mortality, but the impact on quality of life and the attainable mortality reduction remain t o be discussed. The consequences of expanding screening programmes to include women in other age groups are uncertain. We have predicted the effects and costs for 5 popular screening variants, differing in age group and screening interval, on the basis of our analysis of the Dutch screening trials and of the reported mortality reductions in other trials. We have also investigated the influence of a large number of uncertain factors. Screening for women aged 50 and over with a 2- or 3-year interval is very cost-effective and will result in reductions of respectively 16% or 10% in breast cancer mortality in a real population. Variation of most variables keeps the cost-effectiveness (CE) ratio limited to the range of US $3,000 to 5,000 per life-year gained. A 2- to 3-fold change in CE ratio would only occur if the extreme estimates of mortality reduction in the Swedish screening trials were applied. The impact on quality of life (QoL) is limited: for the 2-yearly screening policy for women aged 50-70, the cost per Quality-Adjusted Life-Year (QALY) gained is 4,050, whereas the cost per life-year gained is US $3,825. The CE ratio for 2-yearly screening of women aged 40-70 is 5,400, but the additional cost per additional life-year gained is US $35,000. It would be preferable by far to extend the screening programme to women over the age of 70 or to shorten the screening interval for women aged 50-70. Screening performances, the demand for mammograms outside screening and the possibility of a survival improvement irrespective of screening have a strong impact on QoL and CE.

Trials have shown that breast cancer screening is effective in reducing breast cancer mortality and gaining life-years. The question is whether taking into account the impact of a screening programme on quality of life would lead to a less positive view. Screening may have effects on quality of life in the short run for women participating and effects in the long run as a result of the expected shift in the number of women experiencing early and advanced phases of the disease, after the initiation of the programme. In this study 4 steps have been taken: (I) published studies on quality of life and breast cancer (screening) up to 1989 have been reviewed and summarized and, based on these data, the consequences of breast cancer and treatment have been described; (2) values have been assigned to the disease and treatment phases by experts in breast cancer and public health (N = 31, response 87%); (3) these values have been inserted in the MISCAN model predicting the prevalence of disease/treatment phases with and without a 2-yearly screening programme for women aged 50-70 and multiplied by the duration of these phases; (4) analyses have been done to establish the sensitivity of the results for the values inserted. The programme of 2-yearly mammographic screening for women aged 50-70 is predicted to be 8% "less effective" (range -19.7 to +3.2%) when computing quality-adjusted life-years. We conclude that this adjustment is too small to attribute a major role to quality of life in the decision to undertake a large-scale breast cancer screening programme.

Breast cancer screening is generally accepted as an effective means of reducing breast cancer mortality in post-menopausal women. In this analysis the impact of nationwide screening on clinical medicine and the effects for the women involved are quantified. Effect estimates are based on results from screening trials in Utrecht (DOM-project) and Nijmegen, and on bi-annual screening of women aged 50-70. The consequences for health care are based on generally accepted assessment and treatment policies. The number of assessment procedures for non-palpable lesions will increase by 12% per year in the build-up period, and will remain slightly higher. The total number of biopsies in a real population is expected to decrease. Screening will lead to a shift in primary treatment modalities, as 15% of mastectomies will be replaced by breast conserving therapy. The temporary increase in the demand for primary treatment in the first years will be followed by a decrease in the demand for treating women with advanced disease. Favourable effects outweigh the inevitable unfavourable effects, with high quality screening and an appropriate invitation system. Breast cancer screening can also be recommended after considering other consequences than mortality reduction.

Objective: To assess the screening performance of a specific language-screening instrument at 18 and 24 months of age and to assess its effect on the early detection and prognosis of language delay. Design: Child health care physicians were randomised to the intervention group, in which specific language screening was conducted twice (at age 18 months and 24 months), or to the control group (usual care). The specific screening instrument consisted of a uniform set of questions for the parents and test elements for the child, with scaled scores to assess responses. Setting: Child health care in the Netherlands and referral of screen-positive children. Subjects: 5734 children in the intervention group and 4621 in the control group. Main outcome measures: Test characteristics and disorders at 24 months, and confirmed diagnoses of a language disorder before 36 months in both groups. Gold standard based on reports of parents, specialists and expert panel. Prognosis estimated from two diagnostic language development performance scores at 36 months (in questionnaire). Results: In the intervention group, 3147 of the 5734 children (55%) were screened with the specific screening instrument and 73 of the screened children (2.3%) were screen-positive. Of the screen-positive children, 41 (55%) had confirmed language delay (diagnostic assessment and/or reported treatment). The estimated sensitivity of the test ranged between 24–52% depending on the severity of language disorders. The prevalence of language disorders in three-year olds was estimated to be 2.4–5.3%. In the intervention group, 1.25–2 times more children with language delay had been diagnosed before 36 months. The assessment of language development at 36 months showed no statistically significant differences between the intervention and the control groups. Conclusions: The inclusion of a specific language-screening instrument in child health centre activities resulted in the earlier detection of children with language delay. Short-term health benefits could not be demonstrated. Large-scale introduction cannot be recommended on the basis of this information alone.

The issue of the allocation of resources in health care is here to stay. The goal of this study was to explore the views of physicians on several topics that have arisen in the debate on the allocation of scarce resources and to compare these with the views of policy makers. We asked physicians (oncologists, cardiologists, and nursing home physicians) and policy makers to participate in an interview about their practices and opinions concerning factors playing a role in decision making for patients in different age groups. Both physicians and policy makers recognised allocation decisions as part of their reality. One of the strong general opinions of both physicians and policy makers was the rejection of age discrimination. Making allocation decisions as such seemed to be regarded as a foreign entity to the practice of medicine. In spite of the reluctance to make allocation decisions, physicians sometimes do. This would seem to be only acceptable if it is justified in terms of the best interests of the patient from whom treatment is withheld.

Healthcare costs are continuously increasing, and impose a strong responsibility on governments for an adequate allocation of resources among healthcare provisions and patients. The aims of the present study were to describe the healthcare costs of intellectual disability (ID) and other mental disorders in the context of the total costs of all other diseases, and to determinate the future need of healthcare resources, especially for ID and mental disorders. The present authors performed a top-down cost-of-illness study comprising all healthcare costs of the Netherlands in 1994. Data on healthcare use were obtained for all 22 healthcare sectors, and used to ascribe costs to disease groups, age and sex. Costs of mental disorders are by far the largest in the Dutch healthcare system. Some 25.8% of total disease-specific costs could be ascribed to mental disorders: psychiatric conditions, 10.6%; ID, 9.0%; and dementia, 6.2%. There are large differences between age and sex groups. The costs of ID and schizophrenia are higher among men, and the costs of dementia and depression are higher among women. The age pattern shows two peaks: the first occurs at 25-35 years of age (ID and psychiatric conditions); and the second at 75-85 years of age (dementia). Time trends between 1988 and 1994 show an average annual growth rate of 5.2% for total healthcare costs: psychiatric conditions, 4.8%; ID, 5.4%; and dementia, 9.4%. Demographic projections suggest a less-than-average cost increase for ID and psychiatric disorders (with annual growth rates of 0.2% and 0.4%, respectively) compared to the costs of dementia and total healthcare (with annual growth rates of 1.6% and 0.9%, respectively). Intellectual disability and mental disorders represent a large part of healthcare use in the Netherlands. The costs will inevitably increase because of the ageing of the population and increasing life expectancy among people with disabilities. Non-specific cost containment measures may endanger the quality of care for vulnerable people at younger and older ages.

Objective: To describe the frequency, background, and impact of decisions to give analgesic or other drugs that may, intentionally or unintentionally, shorten the life-span of severely ill neonates. Setting: The Netherlands. Design: Retrospective, cross-sectional study. Patients: Questionnaires were mailed in The Netherlands to physicians reporting 338 consecutive deaths of infants under 1 yr of age from August through November 1995. Interventions: None. Measurements and Main Results. Questions were asked about medical end-of-life decisions preceding the death of the infant and about the decision-making process. Potentially life-shortening drugs, mostly opioids, were given in 37% of all deaths. The estimated effect in terms of the shortening of life was

Background Variations in ‘avoidable’ mortality may reflect variations in the quality of care, but they may also be due to variations in incidence or severity of diseases. We studied the association between regional variations in ‘avoidable’ mortality and variations in disease incidence. For a selection of conditions we also analysed whether the proportion of in-hospital deaths can explain the regional variations in incidence-adjusted mortality. Methods Relative risks for mortality, incidence, incidence-adjusted mortality and in-hospital mortality (1984‐1994) were calculated by log-linear regression. Linear regression was used to examine the relationship between mortality and incidence on the one hand, and between incidence-adjusted mortality and in-hospital mortality on the other. Results Significant regional mortality variations were found for cervical cancer, cancer of the testis, hypertensive and cerebrovascular disease, influenza/pneumonia, cholecystitis/lithiasis, perinatal causes and congenital cardiovascular anomalies. Regional mortality differences in general were only partly accounted for by incidence variations. The only exception was cervical cancer, which no longer showed significant variations after adjustment for incidence. The contribution of inhospital mortality variations to total cause-specific mortality variations varied between conditions: the highest percentage of explained variance was found for mortality from CVA (60.1%) and appendicitis (29.2%). Conclusions Incidence data are a worthy addition to studies on ‘avoidable’ mortality. It is to be expected that the incidence-adjusted mortality rates are more sensitive for quality-of-care variations than the ‘crude’ mortality variations. Nevertheless, further research at the individual level is needed to identify possible deficiencies in health care delivery.

Objective To assess the impact of the national breast cancer screening programme on breast cancer mortality in the first years after its introduction. Setting The Netherlands and United Kingdom. Methods —MISCAN models, incorporating demographic, epidemiological, and screening characteristics of the region under study, were used to assess the mortality in the presence and absence of screening. Results Breast cancer mortality decreased in women aged 55–74 as the Dutch nationwide screening programme built up, and was 5% lower in 1996 than before the start of the programme. The mortality reduction due to screening in the age group 55–74 is expected to increase gradually to 18% in 1999, 10 years after the introduction of screening, and to 29% in the long term. In the United Kingdom screening was expected to achieve a mortality reduction of 5% and 18% in the age group 55–69 five and 10 years respectively after screening was started. A maximum mortality reduction of 24% in this age group is predicted. Conclusions —The effects of screening will be small in the first years after the start of the programme. Accordingly, it was expected that the reduction in breast cancer mortality due to the Dutch nationwide breast screening programme, which started around 1989, would be statistically significant from 1997 onwards, the point at which the target population of women was completely covered; 70% of the reported 12% mortality reduction in England and Wales in 1994 is expected to be attributed to screening.

Background In 1994 the Dutch Supreme Court ruled that in exceptional instances, physician-assist ed suicide might be justifiable for patients with unbearable mental suffering but no physical illness. We studied physician-assisted suicide and euthanasia in psychiatric practice in the Netherlands. Methods In 1996, we sent questionnaires to 673 Dutch psychiatrists - about half of all such special ists in the country - and received 552 responses from the 667 who met the study criteria (response rate, 83 percent). We estimated the annual frequencies of requests for physician-assisted suicide by psychiatrists and actual instances of assistance. Results Of the respondents, 205 (37 percent) had at least once received an explicit, persistent request for physician-assisted suicide and 12 had complied. We estimate there are 320 requests a year in psychiatric practice and 2 to 5 assisted suicides. Excluding those who had ever assisted, 345 of the respondents (64 percent) thought physician-assisted suicide because of a mental disorder could be acceptable, including 241 who said they could conceive of instances in which they themselves would be willing to assist. The most frequent reasons for refusing were the belief that the patient had a treatable mental disorder, opposition to assisted suicide in principle, and doubt that the suffering was unbearable or hopeless. Most, but not all, patients who had been assisted by their psychiatrists in suicide had both a mental disorder and a serious physical illness, often in a terminal phase. Thirty percent of the respondents had been consulted at least once by a physician in another specialty about a patient's request for assisted death. The annual number of such consultations was estimated at 310, about 3 percent of the estimated 9700 requests for euthanasia or physician-assisted suicide in medical practice. Conclusions Explicit requests for physician-assisted suicide are not uncommon in psychiatric practice in the Netherlands, but these requests are rarely granted. Psychiatric consultation for medical patients who request physician-assisted death is relatively rare. (C)1997, Massachusetts Medical Society.

The treatment of breast cancer patients has changed rapidly in the past decade, but empirical data at local and national level are scarce. Predicting the consequences of screening for primary treatment is consequently difficult. The aim of this analysis of records on admissions to hospital of women with breast cancer and/or for breast surgery (1975-90) together with a survey of all Dutch radiotherapy departments (1986-88) is to show the change in breast-conserving therapy and other primary treatment before the start of breast cancer screening in The Netherlands. There was a modest increase in breast-conserving therapy after 1981, coinciding with the first publication on its trial, followed by a sharp increase between 1985 and 1990, after the second publication. At the end of that 5 year period, 36% of all women with newly diagnosed invasive breast cancer underwent this type of surgery. Breast-conserving surgery is always followed by radiotherapy, but there has been a clear reduction in post-operative radiation after mastectomy. The percentage of breast-conserving therapy is at present higher in The Netherlands than in the USA. Implementing the Dutch screening programme will result in a maximum increase in breast-conserving therapy at national level of 34%, which stabilises at +21%, or a 50% maximum increase at local level. The number of women treated by mastectomy will ultimately decrease by 9%. Given the rapidity of change towards the use of breast-conserving surgery, which is enhanced by screening, recent information will be needed in predicting capacity and assessing whether screen-detected women are treated adequately.

OBJECTIVES. Many developed countries have seen declining mortality rates for heart disease, together with an alleged decline in incidence and a seemingly paradoxical increase in health care demands. This paper presents a model for forecasting the plausible evolution of heart disease morbidity. METHODS. The simulation model combines data from different sources. It generates acute coronary event and mortality rates from published data on incidences, recurrences, and lethalities of different heart disease conditions and interventions. Forecasts are based on plausible scenarios for declining incidence and increasing survival. RESULTS. Mortality is postponed more than incidence. Prevalence rates of morbidity will decrease among the young and middle-aged but increase among the elderly. As the milder disease states act as risk factors for the more severe states, effects will culminate in the most severe disease states with a disproportionate increase in older people. CONCLUSIONS. Increasing health care needs in the face of declining mortality rates are no contradiction, but reflect a tradeoff of mortality for morbidity. The aging of the population will accentuate this morbidity increase.

The use of do not resuscitate (DNR) orders in Dutch hospitals was studied as part of a nationwide study on medical decisions concerning the end of life. DNR decisions are made in 6 per cent of all admissions, and 61 per cent of all in-hospital deaths were preceded by a DNR decision. We found that in only 14 per cent of the cases had the patients been involved in the DNR decision (32 per cent of competent patients). The concept of futility is analysed as these findings are discussed. We conclude that determining the effectiveness of resuscitation is a medical judgement whereas determining the proportionality (burden/benefit ratio) of it requires a discussion between doctor and patient (or his or her surrogates). Since the respondents in the cases without patient involvement gave many reasons for their decision that went beyond determining effectiveness, we conclude that more patient involvement would have been desirable.

A computer simulation approach is used to test assumptions about sensitivity of mammography and physical examination, and about the duration of preclinical screen-detectable breast cancer. Values between 50% and 80% for the combined sensitivity of the 2 tests give a good explanation of the results of the HIP randomized trial of breast cancer screening. The mean duration of the preclinical stage can vary from 1.6 years for high sensitivity values to 2.7 years for low values. In comparison with previous analyses of the HIP data our estimate for the sensitivity is lower, and the mean duration of the preclinical stage is longer. This is a consequence of the use of a more detailed model in our analysis, allowing for a more complete use of the HIP data in testing model assumptions. Similar analyses of data from recent screening projects in The Netherlands resulted in compatible estimates for the duration of preclinical breast cancer.

Background Decisions to withhold or withdraw life-prolonging treatment in terminally ill patients are common in some areas of medical practice. Information about the frequency and background of these decisions is generally limited to specific clinical settings. This article describes the practice of withholding or withdrawing life-prolonging treatment in the Netherlands. Methods Questionnaires were sent to the attending physicians of a stratified sample of 6060 of all 43,002 cases of death in the Netherlands from August 1 through November 30, 1995. The questions concerned the treatments foregone, the patient characteristics, and the decision-making process. The response rate was 77%. Results A nontreatment decision was made in 30% (95% confidence interval, 28%-31%) of all deaths in the Netherlands in 1995; this is an increase compared with 28% (95% confidence interval, 26%-29%) in 1990; in 20% of all deaths, this decision was the most important end-of-life decision. Artificial nutrition or hydration and antibiotics were the treatments most frequently foregone, each accounting for 25% of cases in which a nontreatment decision was made. Nursing-home physicians withheld or withdrew treatment more often than clinical specialists or general practitioners in 52%, 35%, and 17% of all deaths they were involved with, respectively. Of the patients in whom a nontreatment decision was the most important end-of-life decision, 26% were competent; of those, 93% were involved in the decision making. In 17% of patients, the nontreatment decision was made without being discussed with the patient or the patient's relatives and without knowledge of the patient's wishes. Life was shortened by an estimated 24 hours or less in 42% and 1 month or more in 8% of patients. Conclusions Decisions to forego life-prolonging treatment are frequently made end-of-life decisions in the Netherlands and may be increasing. Most of these decisions do not involve high-technology treatments, and the consequences, in terms of shortening of life, are relatively small.

In The Netherlands, as in many other industrialized countries, recent mortality developments have been characterized by rapid declines for a number of important causes of death. The results of an analysis of regional variation in mortality decline within The Netherlands are reported, covering the period 1969-1984. The causes of death included in this analysis are Perinatal mortality, Cerebrovascular disease, a more global 'Amenable' selection (formed by aggregating a number of causes of death considered to be amenable to medical intervention), Cancer of the stomach, Ischaemic heart disease and Traffic accidents. For Perinatal mortality, Cerebrovascular disease, the 'Amenable' selection, and Ischaemic heart disease, as well as for Total mortality, declines have not been geographically homogeneous. Perinatal mortality had a tendency to decline faster in regions where starting levels were higher, suggesting a certain convergence. For Cerebrovascular disease and the 'Amenable' selection, but especially for Ischaemic heart disease, the reverse was true. A simple correlation analysis shows that for Perinatal mortality, as well as for the 'Amenable' selection, mortality declined faster in less urbanized, more peripherally located, lower income areas. There is no association with the presence of a university hospital. This pattern suggests that faster mortality decline for these conditions is due to factors other than faster diffusion of new medical technologies. For Ischaemic heart disease, mortality declined faster in more urbanized, more centrally located, higher income areas. Although this pattern is what one would expect as a result of regional differences in the diffusion of new medical technologies, it may also be due to differences in the diffusion of new lifestyles.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

A simple contact registration in family practices in an urban area in the Netherlands was shown to be a suitable instrument for measuring and analysing the incidence of diseases of the lower respiratory tract. This incidence showed a topographical and a temporal variation. The topographical component was related to the sulphur dioxide (SO2) air pollution in the different districts. The temporal component consisted partly of seasonal variations and partly of short-term variations. A moderate effect of the SO2 air pollution on the temporal variation was observed, but it was weak, possibly owing to the relatively low levels of SO2 in Amsterdam. The present study shows that contact registration in family practices may yield useful data for epidemiological analysis.

Studies of determinants of longevity in the elderly by means of a follow-up study are usually based on samples with a wide age range and some selectivity. This poses the problem of constructing a measure of longevity that: 1. (1) will make subjects in the sample comparable regarding survival time, independent of their age and sex; 2. (2) is suitable for long-term follow-up studies; 3. (3) can be used to check the absence or presence of selectivity of the sample with regard to longevity; 4. (4) improves the comparability of studies with different designs and sampling schemes; 5. (5) can take the mortality development over time into account. An individual measure of survival time is presented that satisfies these requirements: the realized probability of dying (RPD). Its construction is described. The RPD is derived from population life tables based on age, year of birth, and sex. For each subject, the relative position on the survival curve within the birth cohort is determined. In an illustration, the RPD is applied to data from a 28-year follow-up study of the elderly in the Netherlands. A comparison is made with other survival measures commonly used in this type of study. It is concluded that the RPD is a powerful and valid measure of longevity in elderly subjects, and that it can be useful in the study of determinants of longevity.

In The Netherlands, as in many other countries, important geographical variation in mortality from conditions amenable to medical intervention exists. Associations with a number of simple medical care supply characteristics (general practitioner density, hospital bed density, and percentage of regional hospital beds located in university and small hospitals) are generally weak and inconsistent, both before and after controlling for possible confounding factors. We explored one of the possible reasons for this lack of consistency, which is the time dependency of the relationship between medical care supply and avoidable mortality. A comparison of associations in four time periods (1950-54, 1960-64, 1970-74 and 1980-84) shows that the percentage of variance in regional mortality levels which can be "explained" by the medical care supply variables has changed over time. Although the patterns of change differ little from what one would expect on the basis of the time of introduction of medical care innovations, the exact nature of the associations is puzzling. Apart from some expected negative associations between mortality and the presence of university hospitals, we also found a few unexpected positive associations with general practitioner density. Possible explanations for these findings are discussed, and it is concluded that further study is necessary to reveal the causes of a higher or lower mortality level for conditions considered to be amenable to medical intervention.

A mass screening programme for cervical cancer is in progress in three pilot regions in The Netherlands. All women living in these regions aged 35–53 are invited to undergo screening at three-year intervals. The MISCAN simulation model was developed for the analysis and optimization of screening programmes. In this paper the model-based approach to evaluation is first outlined and then illustrated by analysing data from the first two screening rounds in the pilot regions. This analysis resulted in a rather restricted range of data-compatible assumptions for the mean duration of preclinical disease (14–19 yr) and the frequency of spontaneous regression of preinvasive lesions (45–65%), as well as a rather wide sensitivity range for the Pap smear (50–90%). These preliminary findings are compared with those of a previous MISCAN analysis of cervical cancer screening in British Columbia. On the basis of an assumed 18-yr duration, 50% regression and 70% sensitivity, a number of screening policies relating to the same age ranges but with different intervals are compared. Both the analysis and the policy comparisons are preliminary, but the findings are nevertheless reasonable and consistent with those of previous studies. A more complete MISCAN-based analysis of the Dutch screening programme and subsequent optimization of screening policies will be possible when further results become available and a cost-effectiveness analysis procedure has been incorporated into the MISCAN programme.