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Background: Self-reported leisure-time physical activity (PA) has previously been linked to risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). We now aim to investigate the strength of associations between PA and different CVDs and how the risk varies with age., Methods: PA and traditional CV risk factors assessed by a questionnaire on a four-level scale in 2,175 men at age 50 years in the ULSAM study. Examinations were thereafter repeated at ages 60, 70, and 77., Results: During 40 years follow-up, 883 individuals experienced a CVD (myocardial infarction, stroke, or heart failure). Using data from all four examinations, a graded reduction in risk of incident CVD was seen with increasing PA (HR 0.84, 95%CI; 0.77-0.93, p = 0.001 for trend test). PA was related to myocardial infarction (HR 0.84, 95%CI; 0.74-0.95, 490 cases), heart failure (HR 0.79, 95%CI; 0.68-0.91, 356 cases), but only of borderline significance vs ischemic stroke (HR 0.85, 95%CI; 0.73-1.00, 315 cases) when the CVDs were analyzed separately. Adjusting for traditional CV risk factors attenuated all relationships between PA and incident CVD, and PA did not improve discrimination of CVD when added on top of risk factors. When 10-year risk was calculated from each examination, age 70 was the time-point when PA was most closely related to incident CVD., Conclusion: Leisure-time physical activity is related to future CVD. This was most evident at 70 years of age. If a causal relationship between self-reported PA and CVD exists, this relationship might to a major degree be mediated by traditional risk factors., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Background: The strength of association and optimal levels for risk factors related to excess risk of death and cardiovascular outcomes in type 1 diabetes mellitus have been sparsely studied., Methods: In a national observational cohort study from the Swedish National Diabetes Register from 1998 to 2014, we assessed relative prognostic importance of 17 risk factors for death and cardiovascular outcomes in individuals with type 1 diabetes mellitus. We used Cox regression and machine learning analyses. In addition, we examined optimal cut point levels for glycohemoglobin, systolic blood pressure, and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol. Patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus were followed up until death or study end on December 31, 2013. The primary outcomes were death resulting from all causes, fatal/nonfatal acute myocardial infarction, fatal/nonfatal stroke, and hospitalization for heart failure., Results: Of 32 611 patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus, 1809 (5.5%) died during follow-up over 10.4 years. The strongest predictors for death and cardiovascular outcomes were glycohemoglobin, albuminuria, duration of diabetes mellitus, systolic blood pressure, and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol. Glycohemoglobin displayed ≈2% higher risk for each 1-mmol/mol increase (equating to ≈22% per 1% glycohemoglobin difference), whereas low-density lipoprotein cholesterol was associated with 35% to 50% greater risk for each 1-mmol/L increase. Microalbuminuria or macroalbuminuria was associated with 2 to 4 times greater risk for cardiovascular complications and death. Glycohemoglobin <53 mmol/mol (7.0%), systolic blood pressure <140 mm Hg, and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol <2.5 mmol/L were associated with significantly lower risk for outcomes observed., Conclusions: Glycohemoglobin, albuminuria, duration of diabetes mellitus, systolic blood pressure, and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol appear to be the most important predictors for mortality and cardiovascular outcomes in patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus. Lower levels for glycohemoglobin, systolic blood pressure, and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol than contemporary guideline target levels appear to be associated with significantly lower risk for outcomes.

Improvement of risk prediction for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) is needed. Both ambulatory blood pressure (ABP) and biomarkers amino-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), high-sensitivity C-reactive protein and cystatin C improve risk prediction but they have not been evaluated in relation to each other. We analyzed whether NT-proBNP, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, or cystatin C improved risk prediction beyond traditional ASCVD risk factors combined with 24-hour systolic BP (SBP). Secondary aim was to evaluate whether ABP improved risk prediction when compared with models with the biomarkers. We followed up 907 70-year-old men, free of baseline disease, for incident ASCVD defined as fatal or nonfatal myocardial infarction or fatal or nonfatal stroke for a median of 10 years. Cox regression was used to estimate the association between variables in the models and incident ASCVD. Biomarkers were added to a model containing both traditional risk factors and ABP and the models were compared on C-statistics and net reclassification improvement. Twenty-four hour SBP improved discrimination for incident ASCVD when compared with office SBP in a traditional risk factor model (area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve, +2.4%). NT-proBNP further improved reclassification (+18.7%-19.9%; P<0.01) when added to ABP models, whereas high-sensitivity C-reactive protein and cystatin C did not. Twenty-four hour SBP significantly improved net reclassification when added to a traditional risk factor model that included NT-proBNP. The combination of 24-hour SBP and NT-proBNP improved discrimination and net reclassification for incident ASCVD when compared with office SBP in elderly men. NT-proBNP, but not high-sensitivity C-reactive protein or cystatin C, improved risk prediction and discrimination when added to a model that included ABP., (© 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.)

Background: Few earlier studies have analysed smoking as a risk factor for myocardial infarction (MI) or stroke in type 2 diabetic patients., Design and Methods: A longitudinal study involved 13 087 female and male patients with type 2 diabetes from the Swedish National Diabetes Register with no previous MI or stroke at baseline, aged 30-74 years, and with data available for all analysed variables, followed up for mean 5.7 years., Results: Adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for smoking and first-incident fatal/nonfatal MI, stroke and total mortality were 1.7 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.4-2.0; P<0.001], 1.3 (95% CI: 1.1-1.6; P = 0.006) and 1.8 (95% CI: 1.5-2.2; P<0.001), respectively, by Cox regression analysis, adjusted for age, sex, diabetes duration, hypoglycaemic treatment, haemoglobin A1c, blood pressure, body mass index, microalbuminuria, antihypertensive and lipid-lowering drugs. Adjusted HR was higher for fatal MI, 2.1 (95% CI: 1.7-2.7; P<0.001), than for nonfatal MI, 1.4 (95% CI: 1.2-1.7; P<0.001). The highest HRs were observed in more frequently smoking (22%), middle-aged patients (age <60 years) for fatal/nonfatal MI, 2.3 (95% CI: 1.8-3.1; P<0.001) and for total mortality, 2.5 (95% CI: 1.6-3.8, P<0.001), whereas lower HRs were observed in older and less smoking patients. With predicted cessation of smoking in patients aged below 60 years, 24% (95% CI: 15-33%) of cases of fatal/nonfatal MI and 24% (11-37%) of cases of total mortality may have been prevented., Conclusion: The risk for MI and total mortality associated with smoking is high in type 2 diabetes, especially in more frequently smoking, middle-aged patients, and was higher for MI than for stroke, and also higher for fatal than for nonfatal events. Smoking cessation would strongly affect risk reduction.

Objective: To explore if the predictive power of mid-life electrocardiogram (ECG) abnormalities and conventional cardiovascular risk factors for future myocardial infarction, change over a 30-year follow-up period and if repeated examination improves their predictive power., Design and Setting: Longitudinal population-based study., Participants: A total of 2322 men aged 50 years, with a total follow-up period of 30 years and 1221 subjects were re-examined at age of 70 years., Main Outcome Measure: Risk for fatal and nonfatal myocardial infarction (n = 470) analysed at age 50 and 70 years, and separately for 1-10, 11-20 and 21-30 years after first examination. Investigations included a 12-lead ECG, blood pressure, body mass index, smoking habits, and glucose and lipid variables., Results: Whilst high blood pressure and dyslipidaemia variables, such as apolipoprotein B/apolipoprotein A1 ratio, measured at age 50 showed an almost unchanged predictive power during the three decades of follow up, ECG abnormalities, insulin and BMI were only significant predictors during the two first decades of follow up. Despite increased prevalences of ECG abnormalities and obesity with age, they predicted for future myocardial infarction in midlife only whilst fasting insulin and smoking regained their predictive power when re-measured at age 70., Conclusion: Whilst hypertension and dyslipidaemia were consistent as risk factors, length of follow-up period and age at baseline investigations affected the predictive power of ECG abnormalities, fasting insulin, BMI and smoking. In the elderly, ECG abnormalities did not contribute to the prediction of myocardial infarction but smoking and fasting insulin may be important in the pathophysiology leading to MI especially in this age group.

Background: In recent years, the importance of circulating levels of proinsulin and apolipoproteins as risk factors for myocardial infarction (MI) has been highlighted. The aims of the current study were to investigate whether introduction of these new markers of coronary risk could improve the performance of a risk prediction score and to compare this new score with traditional scoring schemes, such as the Framingham Study and the Prospective Cardiovascular Munster (PROCAM) Study schemes., Methods: From 1970 to 1973 all 50-year-old men in Uppsala, Sweden, were invited to participate in a health survey aimed at identifying risk factors for cardiovascular disease (the Uppsala Longitudinal Study of Adult Men [ULSAM] cohort). The current study investigated metabolic characteristics at baseline and the incidence of fatal and nonfatal MI (n = 251) during 28.7 years of follow-up in 1108 men who were free of coronary heart disease at baseline., Results: The risk prediction score was derived from one half of the population sample from the ULSAM cohort and included systolic blood pressure, smoking, family history of MI, serum proinsulin, and the ratio between apolipoprotein B and apolipoprotein A1. The score was highly predictive for future MI (hazard ratio, 1.77 for a 1 SD increase; 95% CI, 1.49 to 2.10, P <.0001) in the other half of the population that was not used for generating the score. The ULSAM score performed slightly better than the Framingham and PROCAM scores (evaluated as areas under the receiver operating curves; Framingham, 61%; PROCAM, 63%; ULSAM, 66%; P =.08)., Conclusions: A risk prediction score for MI including proinsulin and the ratio between apolipoprotein B and apolipoprotein A1 was developed in middle-aged men. This score was highly predictive for future fatal and nonfatal MI and proved to be at least as good as the Framingham and the PROCAM scores, being based on traditional risk factors.

Background: Ischemic heart disease can vary substantially in its clinical presentation. Some patients have acute myocardial infarction (MI) without any previous signs of myocardial ischemia, whereas other patients may have stable angina pectoris for years without periods of acute unstability. This study compared baseline risk factors between subjects in whom stable angina pectoris developed and subjects in whom unheralded fatal or nonfatal MI developed during the follow-up period., Methods: In 1970 to 1973, all 50-year-old men in Uppsala, Sweden, were invited to participate in a health survey aimed at identifying risk factors for cardiovascular disease. The present study is a nested case-control study of subjects who were free of coronary heart disease (CHD) at baseline and who then underwent revascularization (percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty or coronary artery bypass grafting) because of angina pectoris without preceding MI (n = 70) or in whom fatal or nonfatal MI developed without prior known CHD (n = 372) during the period until 1998., Results: In multivariate Cox proportional hazard models, low-density lipoprotein and high-density lipoprotein levels (protective) were significant independent risk factors for stable angina pectoris demanding revascularization, whereas smoking, diastolic blood pressure, serum proinsulin levels, and serum lipid levels were significant independent predictors of subsequent unheralded MI. When comparing hazard ratios (HR), significantly higher HR for diastolic blood pressure (1.40 vs 1.00, for 1 SD increase) and serum proinsulin (1.82 vs1.20, for 1 SD increase) were found in the group in which unheralded MI developed than in the group with stable angina pectoris., Conclusions: Serum lipid levels were important risk factors for the development of both stable and acute coronary heart disease. In addition, proinsulin levels and blood pressure were independent predictors of unheralded MI only, which suggests that these factors are involved in thrombosis, plaque rupture, or both.

Objective: To investigate the impact of an increase in blood glucose on the risk of developing myocardial infarction, with particular emphasis on people taking antihypertensive drugs., Design: Prospective population based cohort study., Setting: Uppsala, Sweden., Participants: 1860 men who had participated in 1970-3 at age 50 in a health survey aimed at identifying risk factors for cardiovascular disease and were re-examined at age 60 and then followed for 17.4 years. MIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Myocardial infarction after age 60., Results: The incidence of myocardial infarction was significantly higher in men treated for hypertension than in those without such treatment (23% v 13.5%, P<0.0001). Participants who developed myocardial infarction after the age of 60 (n=253) showed a significantly larger increase in blood glucose between age 50 and 60 than did those without myocardial infarction. In multivariate Cox proportional hazard models increase in blood glucose was an independent risk factor for myocardial infarction (P=0.0001) in men receiving antihypertensive treatment at age 60 (n=291, mainly beta blockers and thiazide diuretics) but not in those without such treatment. The impact of increase in blood glucose declined after inclusion of serum proinsulin concentrations at baseline but was still significant. A significant interaction existed between proinsulin concentration (a marker of insulin resistance) at baseline and antihypertensive treatment on increase in blood glucose., Conclusions: Increase in blood glucose between the ages of 50 and 60 and baseline proinsulin concentration were important risk factors for myocardial infarction in men receiving antihypertensive treatment, indicating that both an insulin resistant state and the metabolic impact of beta blockers and diuretics increase the risk of myocardial infarction.

Aim: We assessed the association between risk factors and cardiovascular disease (CVD) in an observational study of type 2 diabetes patients from the Swedish National Diabetes Register.Methods: A derivation sample of 24,288 patients, aged 30-74 years, 15.3% with previous CVD, baseline 2002, 2488 CVD events when followed for 5 years until 2007. A separate validation data set of 4906 patients, baseline 2003, 522 CVD events when followed for 4 years.Results: Adjusted hazard ratios at Cox regression for fatal/nonfatal CVD were: onset-age 1.59, diabetes duration 1.55, total-cholesterol-to-HDL-cholesterol ratio 1.20, HbA1c 1.12, systolic BP 1.09, BMI 1.07 (1 SD increase in natural log continuous variables); males 1.41, smoker 1.35, microalbuminuria 1.27, macroalbuminuria 1.53, atrial fibrillation 1.50, previous CVD 1.98 (all p<0.001 except BMI p=0.0018). All 12 variables were used to elaborate an equation for 5-year CVD risk in the derivation dataset: mean 5-year risk 11.9±8.4%. Calibration in the validation dataset was adequate: ratio predicted 4-year risk/observed rate 0.97. Discrimination was sufficient: C statistic 0.72, sensitivity 51% and specificity 78% for top quartile.Conclusion: This CVD risk model from a large observational study of patients in routine care showed adequate calibration and discrimination, and can be useful for clinical practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: The predictive effect of various insulin resistance indexes for risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) or type 2 diabetes (T2DM) is still unclear.Methods: One thousand and forty-nine 71-years-old male subjects from the Swedish ULSAM study, mean follow-up 9 years. All subjects performed the euglycemic insulin clamp for M/I [glucose disposal/mean insulin], and 75-g oral glucose tolerance test for Ceder-IR: 1/glucose uptake rate/[mean glucose×log mean insulin]; Matsuda-IR: 1/10,000/square root [glucose0×insulin0×glucose120×insulin120]; Belfiore-IR: 1/([glucose0+glucose120]/normal mean glucose×[insulin0+insulin120]/normal mean insulin)+1); and HOMA-IR: [glucose0×insulin0]/22.5.Results: Bland-Altman plots showed best agreement between M/I versus Belfiore-IR and Ceder-IR with mean difference near zero, -0.21 to -0.46, while -0.68 to -0.77 for the other indexes. ISI-Ceder was the strongest predictor for incident nonfatal/fatal ischemic heart disease (CHD) or CVD at Cox regression in all subjects, and for incident T2DM at logistic regression in 1024 subjects with no baseline T2DM, with significantly higher hazard ratios or odds ratios than with all other indexes, also with best model fit, after adjusting for clinical characteristics and the traditional cardiovascular risk factors, including metabolic syndrome for CVD risk.Conclusion: Ceder-IR performed strongest as independent predictor for incidences of CHD/CVD and T2DM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Aim: To estimate hazard ratio (HR) of first incident fatal/non-fatal cardiovascular diseases (CVD) in female/male type 2 diabetic patients, with tight versus adverse control of HbA1c and blood pressure (BP) at baseline, age 30–70 years, no baseline CVD, followed for mean 5.7 years. Methods: 2593 patients with tight control of HbA1c <7.5% and BP ≤140/90mmHg (median 6.5%/130/80mmHg), and 2160 patients with adverse control 7.5–9.0%/141–190/91–110mmHg (median 8.1%/155/85mmHg). Results: The hazard ratio (HR) for CVD with tight/adverse control was 0.67 (0.55–0.80; p <0.001), adjusting for age, sex, duration, hypoglycaemic treatment, smoking, BMI, lipid-lowering drugs, antihypertensive drugs, microalbuminuria. Adjusted HR for myocardial infarction, coronary heart disease, stroke and total mortality were 0.72 (0.56–0.92; p =0.01), 0.69 (0.55–0.86; p <0.001), 0.62 (0.45–0.84; p <0.001), 1.00 (0.72–1.39). The partial population-attributable risk percent for myocardial infarction, stroke and CVD was 23%, 33%, 29% if adverse HbA1c/BP control could be avoided, while 43%, 38%, 39% with overweight and smoking also avoided. Baseline lower BMI and absence of microalbuminuria were associated with tight control. Conclusion: Median difference of HbA1c/BP 1.6%/25/5mmHg between tight and adverse control considerably reduced the risk of cardiovascular diseases. The findings call for a multi-factorial approach to improve HbA1c, BP, obesity, smoking, and microalbuminuria. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Objectives: Our objectives were to explore novel metabolic risk factors for development of heart failure (HF). Background: In the past decade, considerable knowledge has been gained from limited samples regarding novel risk factors for HF, but the importance of these in the general population is largely unexplored. Methods: In a community-based prospective study of 2,321 middle-aged men free from HF and valvular disease at baseline, variables reflecting glucose and lipid metabolism and variables involved in oxidative processes were compared with established risk factors for HF (prior myocardial infarction, hypertension, diabetes, electrocardiographic left ventricular hypertrophy, smoking, obesity, and serum cholesterol) using Cox proportional hazards analyses. Results: During a median follow-up time of 29 years, 259 subjects developed HF. In a multivariable Cox proportional hazards backward stepwise model, a 1-SD increase of fasting proinsulin (hazard ratio [HR] 1.38, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.15 to 1.66) and apolipoprotein B/A-I-ratio (HR 1.27, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.48) increased the risk, whereas a 1-SD increase in serum beta-carotene (HR 0.79, 95% CI 0.66 to 0.94) decreased the risk of HF. These variables also remained significant when adjusting for acute myocardial infarction during follow-up. Conclusions: Novel variables reflecting insulin resistance and dyslipidemia, together with a low beta-carotene level, were found to predict HF independently of established risk factors. If confirmed, our observations could have large clinical implications, as they may offer new approaches in the prevention of HF. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]