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Objectives: The aim of this study was to develop prediction models for the individual-level impacts of cardiovascular events on UK healthcare costs., Methods: In the UK Biobank, people 40-70 years old, recruited in 2006-2010, were followed in linked primary (N = 192,983 individuals) and hospital care (N = 501,807 individuals) datasets. Regression models of annual primary and annual hospital care costs (2020 UK£) associated with individual characteristics and experiences of myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, coronary revascularization, incident diabetes mellitus and cancer, and vascular and nonvascular death are reported., Results: For both people without and with previous cardiovascular disease (CVD), primary care costs were modelled using one-part generalised linear models (GLMs) with identity link and Poisson distribution, and hospital costs with two-part models (part 1: logistic regression models the probability of incurring costs; part 2: GLM with identity link and Poisson distribution models the costs conditional on incurring any). In people without previous CVD, mean annual primary and hospital care costs were £360 and £514, respectively. The excess primary care costs were £190 and £360 following MI and stroke, respectively, whereas excess hospital costs decreased from £4340 and £5590, respectively, in the year of these events, to £190 and £410 two years later. People with previous CVD had more than twice higher annual costs, and incurred higher excess costs for cardiovascular events. Other characteristics associated with higher costs included older age, female sex, south Asian ethnicity, higher socioeconomic deprivation, smoking, lower level of physical activities, unhealthy body mass index, and comorbidities., Conclusions: These individual-level healthcare cost prediction models could inform assessments of the value of health technologies and policies to reduce cardiovascular and other disease risks and healthcare costs. An accompanying Excel calculator is available to facilitate the use of the models., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Background The plasma concentration of B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) is a strong predictor of adverse cardiovascular events. The aim of this study was to determine whether the association between plasma BNP concentration and cardiovascular mortality is sustained or diminishes with increasing time after BNP is measured. Methods and Results Six thousand seven hundred forty patients with a history of myocardial infarction or unstable angina who participated in the LIPID (Long-Term Intervention with Pravastatin in Ischemic Disease) trial had plasma BNP concentration measured at baseline and after 1 year. Associations with cardiovascular mortality were evaluated in landmark analyses 1 to <5, 5 to <10, and 10 to 16 years after randomization. There were 1640 cardiovascular deaths. The cardiovascular mortality rate increased progressively from 10.2 to 19.1 to 26.3/1000 patient-years from 1 to <5, 5 to <10, and 10 to 16 years after baseline, respectively. The average of baseline and 1-year BNP concentration was more strongly associated with cardiovascular mortality compared with baseline or 1-year BNP only. The hazard ratio (HR) for cardiovascular death associated with each doubling of average BNP concentration was similar during years 1 to <5 (HR, 1.53 [95% CI, 1.44-1.63]), years 5 to <10 (HR, 1.52 [95% CI, 1.44-1.60]), and years 10-16 (HR, 1.43 [95% CI, 1.36-1.50]), P <0.0001 for all. Conclusions BNP concentration remains an independent predictor of cardiovascular mortality more than a decade after it is measured. Because of random variation in plasma concentrations, the average of >1 BNP measurement improves long-term risk prediction.

Background Elevated plasma cystatin C levels reflect reduced renal function and increased cardiovascular risk. Less is known about whether the increased risk persists long-term or is independent of renal function and other important biomarkers. Methods and Results Cystatin C and other biomarkers were measured at baseline (in 7863 patients) and 1 year later (in 6106 patients) in participants in the LIPID (Long-Term Intervention with Pravastatin in Ischemic Disease) study, who had a previous acute coronary syndrome. Outcomes were ascertained during the study (median follow-up, 6 years) and long-term (median follow-up, 16 years). Glomerular filtration rate (GFR) was estimated using Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration equations (first GFR-creatinine, then GFR-creatinine-cystatin C). Over 6 years, in fully adjusted multivariable time-to-event models, with respect to the primary end point of coronary heart disease mortality or nonfatal myocardial infarction, for comparison of Quartile 4 versus 1 of baseline cystatin C, the hazard ratio was 1.37 (95% CI, 1.07-1.74; P =0.01), and for major cardiovascular events was 1.47 (95% CI, 1.19-1.82; P <0.001). Over 16 years, the association of baseline cystatin C with coronary heart disease, cardiovascular, and all-cause mortality persisted (each P <0.001) and remained significant after adjustment for estimated GFR-creatinine-cystatin C. Cystatin C also predicted the development of chronic kidney disease for 6 years (odds ratio, 6.61; 95% CI, 4.28-10.20) independently of estimated GFR-creatinine and other risk factors. However, this association was no longer significant after adjustment for estimated GFR-creatinine-cystatin C. Conclusions Cystatin C independently predicted major cardiovascular events, development of chronic kidney disease, and cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. Prediction of long-term mortality was independent of improved estimation of GFR. Registration URL: https://anzctr.org.au; Unique identifier: ACTRN12616000535471.

Background: A single assessment of psychological distress, which includes depression and anxiety, has been associated with increased mortality in patients with coronary heart disease, but the prognostic importance of persistence of distress symptoms is less certain., Aim: To determine whether intermittent and/or persistent psychological distress is associated with long-term cardiovascular (CV) and total mortality in patients with stable coronary artery disease., Methods: 950 participants in the Long-Term Intervention with Pravastatin in Ischaemic Disease (LIPID) trial completed at least four General Health Questionnaires (GHQ-30) at baseline and after ½, 1, 2 and 4 years. In a landmark analysis from 4 years, Cox proportional hazards models evaluated the risk of CV and total mortality by increasing levels of psychological distress: never distressed, sometimes any severity (GHQ score >5), persistent mild (GHQ score >5 on three or more occasions) and persistent moderate distress (GHQ score >10) on three or more occasions, over a median of 12.1 (IQR 8.6-12.5) years. The models were both unadjusted and adjusted for known baseline risk factors., Results: Persistent moderate or greater psychological stress was reported on three or more assessments by 35 (3.7%) subjects. These patients had a higher risk of both CV death (adjusted HR 3.94, 95% CI 2.05 to 7.56, p<0.001) and all-cause mortality (adjusted HR 2.85, 95% CI 1.74 to 4.66, p<0.001) compared with patients with no distress. In contrast, patients who reported persistent mild distress (n=73, 7.7%) on three or more visits, and those who met criteria for distress on only one or two assessments (n=255, 26.8%), did not have an increased risk of CV or all-cause mortality during follow-up., Conclusion: In patients with stable coronary artery disease, persistent psychological distress of at least moderate severity is associated with a substantial increase in CV and all-cause mortality., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.)

Objectives: This study sought to assess whether baseline and change in contemporary sensitive troponin I (TnI) levels predicts coronary heart disease (CHD) death and myocardial infarction (MI), and to determine the effects of pravastatin on TnI levels., Background: The role of troponins in predicting long-term outcomes in patients with stable CHD is not clearly defined., Methods: The LIPID (Long-Term Intervention With Pravastatin in Ischaemic Disease) study randomized patients with cholesterol levels of 155 to 271 mg/dl 3 to 36 months after MI or unstable angina to placebo or pravastatin 40 mg per day. TnI levels were measured at baseline and after 1 year in 7,863 patients. Median follow-up was 6 years. Change in TnI was defined as moving up or down 1 tertile or ≥50% change., Results: Baseline TnI tertiles were <0.006 ng/ml, 0.006 to <0.018 ng/ml, and ≥0.018 ng/ml. TnI levels were related to CHD death and MI after adjustment for 23 risk factors and treatment (≥0.018 ng/ml vs. <0.006 ng/ml hazard ratio [HR]: 1.64; 95% CI: 1.41 to 1.90; p < 0.001). TnI levels increased in 23.0%, were unchanged in 51.3%, and decreased in 25.7% of patients. Pravastatin decreased TnI levels by 0.003 ng/ml versus placebo (p = 0.002). In landmark analyses, increases in TnI levels were associated with increased numbers of CHD death and MI (HR: 1.31; 95% CI: 1.06 to 1.62) and decreases with decreased risk (HR: 0.90; 95% CI: 0.74 to 1.09; overall p = 0.01). Data were similar with 50% change criteria. Net reclassification improvement by adding TnI to the baseline model for CHD death and MI was 4.8% (p = 0.01)., Conclusions: Baseline TnI levels and change at 1 year are independent predictors of CHD death and MI. TnI levels are strong predictors of risk, and change modifies risk., (Copyright © 2014 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: Lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 (Lp-PLA2) levels are associated with coronary heart disease (CHD) in healthy individuals and in patients who have had ischemic events., Methods and Results: The Long-term Intervention with Pravastatin in Ischemic Disease (LIPID) study randomized 9014 patients with cholesterol levels of 4.0 to 7.0 mmol/L to placebo or pravastatin 3 to 36 months after myocardial infarction or unstable angina and showed a reduction in CHD and total mortality. We assessed the value of baseline and change in Lp-PLA2 activity to predict outcomes over a 6-year follow-up, the effect of pravastatin on Lp-PLA2 levels, and whether pravastatin treatment effect was related to Lp-PLA2 activity change. Lp-PLA2 was measured at randomization and 1 year, and levels were grouped as quartiles. The prespecified end point was CHD death or nonfatal myocardial infarction. Baseline Lp-PLA2 activity was positively associated with CHD events (P < 0.001) but not after adjustment for 23 baseline factors (P = 0.66). In 6518 patients who were event free at 1 year, change in Lp-PLA2 was a significant independent predictor of subsequent CHD events after adjustment for these risk factors, including LDL cholesterol and LDL cholesterol changes (P < 0.001). Pravastatin reduced Lp-PLA2 by 16% compared with placebo (P < 0.001). After adjustment for Lp-PLA2 change, the pravastatin treatment effect was reduced from 23% to 10% (P = 0.26), with 59% of the treatment effect accounted for by changes in Lp-PLA2. Similar reductions in treatment effect were seen after adjustment for LDL cholesterol change., Conclusion: Reduction in Lp-PLA2 activity during the first year was a highly significant predictor of CHD events, independent of change in LDL cholesterol, and may account for over half of the benefits of pravastatin in the LIPID study.

Background: Traditional methods for analyzing clinical and epidemiological cohort study data have been focused on the first occurrence of a health outcome. However, in many situations, recurrent event data are frequently observed. It is inefficient to use methods for the analysis of first events to analyse recurrent event data., Methods: We applied several semi-parametric proportional hazards models to analyze the risk of recurrent myocardial infarction (MI) events based on data from a very large randomized placebo-controlled trial of cholesterol-lowering drug. The backward selection procedure was used to select the significant risk factors in a model. The best fitting model was selected using the log-likelihood ratio test, Akaike Information and Bayesian Information Criteria., Results: A total of 8557 persons were included in the LIPID study. Risk factors such as age, smoking status, total cholesterol and high density lipoprotein cholesterol levels, qualifying event for the acute coronary syndrome, revascularization, history of stroke or diabetes, angina grade and treatment with pravastatin were significant for development of both first and subsequent MI events. No significant difference was found for the effects of these risk factors between the first and subsequent MI events. The significant risk factors selected in this study were the same as those selected by the parametric conditional frailty model. Estimates of the relative risks and 95% confidence intervals were also similar between these two methods., Conclusions: Our study shows the usefulness and convenience of the semi-parametric proportional hazards models for the analysis of recurrent event data, especially in estimation of regression coefficients and cumulative risks.

Background: Analysis of recurrent event data is frequently needed in clinical and epidemiological studies. An important issue in such analysis is how to account for the dependence of the events in an individual and any unobserved heterogeneity of the event propensity across individuals., Methods: We applied a number of conditional frailty and nonfrailty models in an analysis involving recurrent myocardial infarction events in the Long-Term Intervention with Pravastatin in Ischaemic Disease study. A multiple variable risk prediction model was developed for both males and females., Results: A Weibull model with a gamma frailty term fitted the data better than other frailty models for each gender. Among nonfrailty models the stratified survival model fitted the data best for each gender. The relative risk estimated by the elapsed time model was close to that estimated by the gap time model. We found that a cholesterol-lowering drug, pravastatin (the intervention being tested in the trial) had significant protective effect against the occurrence of myocardial infarction in men (HR = 0.71, 95% CI 0.60-0.83). However, the treatment effect was not significant in women due to smaller sample size (HR = 0.75, 95% CI 0.51-1.10). There were no significant interactions between the treatment effect and each recurrent MI event (p = 0.24 for men and p = 0.55 for women). The risk of developing an MI event for a male who had an MI event during follow-up was about 3.4 (95% CI 2.6-4.4) times the risk compared with those who did not have an MI event. The corresponding relative risk for a female was about 7.8 (95% CI 4.4-13.6)., Limitations: The number of female patients was relatively small compared with their male counterparts, which may result in low statistical power to find real differences in the effect of treatment and other potential risk factors., Conclusions: The conditional frailty model suggested that after accounting for all the risk factors in the model, there was still unmeasured heterogeneity of the risk for myocardial infarction, indicating the effect of subject-specific risk factors. These risk prediction models can be used to classify cardiovascular disease patients into different risk categories and may be useful for the most effective targeting of preventive therapies for cardiovascular disease.

Background: We compared cost-effectiveness of pravastatin in a placebo-controlled trial in 5500 younger (31-64 years) and 3514 older patients (65-74 years) with previous acute coronary syndromes., Methods: Hospitalizations and long-term medication within the 6 years of the trial were estimated in all patients . Drug dosage, nursing home, and ambulatory care costs were estimated from substudies. Incremental costs per life saved of pravastatin relative to placebo were estimated from treatment effects and resource use., Results: Over 6 years, pravastatin reduced all-cause mortality by 4.3% in the older patients and by 2.3% in the younger patients. Older patients assigned pravastatin had marginally lower cost of pravastatin and other medication over 6 years (A dollar 4442 vs A dollar 4637), but greater cost offsets (A dollar 2061 vs A dollar 897) from lower rates of hospitalizations. The incremental cost per life saved with pravastatin was A dollar 55500 in the old and A dollar 167200 in the young. Assuming no treatment effect beyond the study period, the life expectancy to age 82 years of additional survivors was 9.1 years in the older and 17.3 years in the younger. Estimated additional life-years saved from pravastatin therapy were 0.39 years for older and 0.40 years for younger patients. Incremental costs per life-year saved were A dollar 7581 in the older and A dollar 14944 in the younger, if discounted at 5% per annum., Conclusions: Pravastatin therapy was more cost-effective among older than younger patients, because of their higher baseline risk and greater cost offsets, despite their shorter life expectancy.

Aims: To evaluate whether there is an association between 30-day mortality in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) included in clinical trials and country gross national income (GNI)., Methods and Results: A retrospective analysis of the databases of five randomized trials including 50 310 patients with STEMI (COBALT 7169, GIK-2 2931, HERO-2 17,089, ASSENT-2 17,005, and ASSENT-3 6116 patients) from 53 countries was performed. Countries were divided into three groups according to their GNI based on the World Bank data: low (less than 2900 US dollars), medium (between 2900 US dollars and 9000 US dollars), and high GNI (more than 9000 US dollars per capita). Baseline characteristics, in-hospital management variables, and 30-day outcomes were evaluated. A previously defined logistic regression model was used to adjust for differences in baseline characteristics and to predict mortality. The observed mortality was higher than the predicted mortality in the low (12.1 vs. 11.8%) and in the medium income groups (9.4 vs. 7.9%), whereas it was lower in the high income group (4.9 vs. 5.6%)., Conclusion: An inverse relationship between mortality and GNI was observed in STEMI clinical trials. Most of the variability in mortality can be explained by differences in baseline characteristics; however, after adjustment, lower income countries have higher mortality than the expected.

Aims: We sought to characterize the outcomes of patients with a prior percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) who presented with a non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome (ACS)., Methods and Results: We analysed the 30 and 180 day outcomes of 3012 patients with prior PCI and 21 154 patients without prior PCI enrolled in three randomized ACS trials (GUSTO IIb, PURSUIT, and PARAGON-B). The median (25th, 75th percentile) interval between the prior PCI and randomization was 647 (123, 1585) days. Patients with prior PCI had significantly more adverse baseline clinical characteristics, left ventricular dysfunction, and multi-vessel coronary artery disease. After adjusting for baseline characteristics and treatment, we found that patients with prior PCI had a significantly lower mortality rate at 30 days [hazard ratio (HR), 0.60; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.45-0.80; P=0.0006] and 180 days (HR, 0.81; 95% CI, 0.66-0.98; P=0.029). However, no difference was observed in the composite of death or myocardial infarction (MI) at 30 days (HR, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.83-1.08; P=0.42) or 180 days (HR, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.90-1.13; P=0.90). Patients with prior PCI had a higher rate of MI at 180 days (13.3 vs. 12.0%; P=0.045). Prior-PCI patients had lower incidences of in-hospital cardiogenic shock, congestive heart failure (CHF), and atrial fibrillation., Conclusion: Patients with prior PCI who present with non-ST-segment elevation ACS have a lower mortality rate than those without prior PCI.

Of 592 patients in the Global Utilization of Streptokinase and tPA for Occluded Arteries-I trial who had a stroke during initial hospitalization, the risk for intracranial hemorrhage was significantly greater in those with recent facial or head trauma (odds ratio 13.0, 95% confidence interval 3.4 to 85.5); dementia was additionally associated with an increased risk for intracranial hemorrhage (odds ratio 3.4, 95% confidence interval 1.2 to 10.2). Because facial or head trauma may greatly influence treatment decisions, this risk factor should be incorporated into models designed to estimate the risks and benefits of fibrinolytic therapy.

Background: Platelet glycoprotein IIb/IIIa inhibitors have been shown to reduce cardiac complications in patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention. The clinical efficacy of these drugs in acute coronary syndromes, however, is still unclear. We did a meta-analysis of all large randomised trials designed to study the clinical efficacy and safety of glycoprotein IIb/IIIa inhibitors in patients with acute coronary syndromes who were not routinely scheduled to undergo early coronary revascularisation., Methods: Inclusion criteria were: randomisation of patients with acute coronary syndromes but without persistent ST elevation; comparison of a glycoprotein IIb/IIIa inhibitor with placebo or control therapy; non-recommendation of early coronary revascularisation during study-drug infusion; and enrollment of at least 1000 patients. Data on individual patients were obtained from all participants in these trials., Findings: Six trials, enrolling 31402 patients, fulfilled the inclusion criteria. 30 days after randomisation, 3530 (11.2%) patients died or developed a myocardial infarction. At 30 days, a 9% reduction in the odds of death or myocardial infarction was seen with glycoprotein IIb/IIIa inhibitors compared with placebo or control (10.8% [1980/18297] vs 11.8% [1550/13105] events; odds ratio 0.91 [95% CI 0.84-0.98]; p=0.015). The relative treatment benefit was similar in subgroups of patients according to important clinical baseline characteristics; hence, the absolute treatment benefit was largest in high-risk patients. An unexpected and significant interaction was seen between sex and allocated treatment, with a treatment benefit in men (0.81 [0.75-0.89] but not in women (1.15 [1.01-1.30]). However, once patients were stratified according to troponin concentration, there was no evidence of a sex difference in treatment response, and a risk reduction was seen in men and women with raised troponin concentrations. Major bleeding complications were increased by glycoprotein IIb/IIIa inhibitors (2.4% [445/18297] vs 1.4% [180/13105]; p<0.0001), but intracranial bleeding was not (16 [0.09%] vs 8 [0.06%]; p=0.40)., Interpretation: Glycoprotein IIb/IIIa inhibitors reduce the occurrence of death or myocardial infarction in patients with acute coronary syndromes not routinely scheduled for early revascularisation. The event reduction is greatest in patients at high risk of thrombotic complications. Treatment with a glycoprotein IIb/IIIa inhibitor might therefore be considered especially in such patients early after admission, and continued until a decision about early coronary revascularisation has been made.

Background: New recombinant plasminogen activators have been developed to simulate the fibrinolytic action of the physiological serine protease tissue plasminogen activator (alteplase, t-PA), and have prolonged half-life features permitting bolus administration. One such activator, reteplase (r-PA), was compared with t-PA in the Global Utilization of Streptokinase and t-PA for Occluded Coronary Arteries (GUSTO)-III Trial., Methods and Results: At 1-year follow-up, survival status was ascertained in 97.4% of the 15 059 patients enrolled in the GUSTO-III trial. At 1 year, the mortality rate for the t-PA-assigned group was 11.06%, and for r-PA it was 11.20% (P:=0. 77). The absolute mortality difference of 0.14% has 95% CIs of -1. 21% to 0.93%. There were no significant differences in outcome by intention-to-treat for the 2 different plasminogen activators in the prespecified groups (age, infarct location, time-to-treatment). The absolute difference in mortality rates between t-PA and r-PA progressively narrowed over the predetermined observation times after random assignment; it was 0.31% at 24 hours, 0.26% at 7 days, 0.23% at 30 days, and 0.14% at 1 year. Of note, mortality rate in the trial between 30 days and 1 year in 13 883 patients was 4.02% and did not differ between the treatment groups. However, this mortality rate was substantially greater than in GUSTO-I, in which mortality rate for t-PA versus streptokinase between 30 days and 1-year was 2.97% (heart rate 1.36, 95% CI 1.23, 1.50, P:<0.001)., Conclusions: The r-PA and t-PA strategies yielded similar survival outcomes after 30 days in this trial. The increase in mortality rate during extended follow-up compared with previous trials may reflect higher-risk patients and highlights the need for improved secondary prevention strategies.

The Global Utilization of Streptokinase and Tissue Plasminogen Activator for Occluded Coronary Arteries (GUSTO) trial, a recent randomized "megatrial" of thrombolytic therapies in acute myocardial infarction, showed a statistically significant decrease of 30-day mortality in patients treated with accelerated-dose tissue plasminogen activator (tPA) compared with streptokinase. The therapeutic and cost implications of the results have been intensely scrutinized, and several commentaries have been written on the interpretation of the study. Questions have been raised about the treatment benefit in certain subgroups, the validity of the results because of the open-label design, the relevance of a 1% absolute benefit in mortality rates, the cost-effectiveness of the drug, and the generalizability of the results. These issues are all important considerations for translating the results of this study into clinical practice worldwide. This article sheds additional light on the interpretation of GUSTO, clarifies misconceptions that may have clouded understanding of the trial results, and discusses the contributions of this trial in advancing our understanding of modern myocardial reperfusion therapy.

Background: In the prethrombolytic era, women with myocardial infarction were reported to have a worse outcome than men. This analysis evaluates the association of sex with morbidity and mortality after thrombolytic therapy., Methods and Results: Data were analyzed from 8261 of the 8387 randomized patients with acute myocardial infarction who received thrombolytic therapy in the International Tissue Plasminogen Activator/Streptokinase Mortality Study (baseline data were missing for 126 patients) and were followed for 6 months. Women made up 23% (n = 1944) of the study population. Baseline characteristics were worse in women: they were 6 years older, were more likely to have a history of previous infarction (P < .01), antecedent angina (P < .01), hypertension (P < .0001), or diabetes (P < .0001); were in a higher Killip class on admission (P < .0002); and received thrombolytic therapy 18 minutes later than men (P < .0001). Fewer women were smokers (P < .0001). Women had a higher hospital (12.1% versus 7.2%, P < .0001) and 6-month mortality (16.6% versus 10.4%, P < .0001) and were more likely to develop cardiogenic shock (9.1% versus 6.3%, P < .0001), bleeding (7.2% versus 5.3%, P < .01), and hemorrhagic (1% versus 0.3%, P < .001) or total stroke (2.2% versus 1.1%, P < .0001) during hospitalization. Reinfarction rates and requirement for angioplasty or surgery did not differ. After correction for worse baseline characteristics, women had similar morbidity and mortality apart from a significantly higher incidence of hemorrhagic stroke, which remained significant even after accounting for weight and treatment allocation (odds ratio, 2.90; P < .01)., Conclusions: After thrombolytic therapy for acute myocardial infarction, women have similar morbidity and mortality to men but suffer from a higher incidence of hemorrhagic stroke.