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Objective: To investigate risk factors for early mortality (EM) in patients with newly diagnosed multiple myeloma (NDMM) and to build an EM-predictive model. Methods: In a cohort of 275 patients with NDMM, risk factors for EM at 6, 12, and 24 months after diagnosis (EM6, EM12, and EM24, respectively) were determined to establish a model to predict EM. Results: The rates of EM6, EM12, and EM24 were 5.5% , 12.7% , and 30.2% , respectively. The most common cause for EM was disease progression/relapse, accounting for 60.0% , 77.1% , and 84.3% of EM6, EM12, and EM24, respectively. EM6 was associated with corrected serum calcium >2.75 mmol/L and platelet count <100×10(9)/L, whereas risk factors for EM12 included age >75 years, ISS Ⅲ, R-ISS Ⅲ, corrected serum calcium >2.75 mmol/L, serum creatinine >177 µmol/L, platelet count <100×10(9)/L, and bone marrow plasma cell ratio ≥ 60% . In addition to the risk factors for EM12, EM24 was also associated with male sex and 1q21 gain. By multivariate analysis, age >75 years, platelet count <100×10(9)/L, and 1q21 gain were independent risk factors for EM24 but there were no independent risk factors significantly associated with EM6 and EM12. Using a scoring system including these three risk factors, a Cox model for EM24 was generated to distinguish patients with low (score<3) and high (score ≥ 3) risk. The sensitivity and specificity of the model were 20.7% and 99.2% , respectively. Further, an internal validation performed in a cohort of 183 patients with NDMM revealed that the probability of EM24 in high-risk patients was 26 times higher than that in low-risk patients. Moreover, this model was also able to predict overall survival. The median overall survival of patients with scores of 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 were 59, 41, 22, 17.5, and 16 months, respectively. Conclusion: In the study cohort, the EM6, EM12, and EM24 rates were 5.5% , 12.7% , and 30.2% , respectively, and disease progression or relapse were main causes of EM. An EM24-predictive model built on three independent risk factors for EM24 (age>75 years, platelet count<100×10(9)/L, and 1q21 gain) might predict EM risk and overall survival.

Objective: To evaluate the prognostic significance of combining ISS-Ⅲ and high risk cytogenetic abnormalities [HRCAs, including 1q gain/amplification and del (17p) ] in patients with newly-diagnosed multiple myeloma (NDMM) . Methods: The clinical characteristics and relevant variables were retrospectively analyzed in a total of 270 NDMM patients diagnosed between November 2009 and May 2018. ISS-Ⅲ stage and HRCAs [detected by FISH, including 1q gain/amplification and del (17p) ] were defined as risk factors (hit) . Based to the number of hit per case, these patients were divided into four groups carrying 0 to 3 risk factors, respectively. Progress-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) were then analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier estimator. Results: Patients who carried single hit ( n =120, 44.4%) had shorter median PFS (23.0 vs 28.9 months; P >0.05) and OS (42.3 vs 53.7 months; P >0.05) than those with no risk factors ( n =66, 24.4%) . Of note, the outcome of patients who had two or more risk factors (double/triple, n =84, 31.1%) was much worse than those with either no or one risk factor, indicated by significantly reduced median PFS (14.5 months; HR =1.584, 95% CI 1.082-2.319; P =0.003 for double/triple vs single hit) and OS (18.4 months, HR =2.299, 95% CI 1.485-3.560; P <0.001 for double/triple vs single hit) . Strikingly, patients who had three risk factor (triple hit, n =5, 1.9%) displayed the poorest survival with extraordinarily shorter PFS (0.9-15.1 months) and OS (0.9-18.9 months) compared to those carrying two risk factors (double hit) . Analogous results were obtained when different combinations of ISS stages and HRCAs were analyzed. Conclusion: These results suggest a potential but rather important role of combining multiple (e.g. double or triple) adverse factors determined via the routine ISS staging and FISH detection of cytogenetic abnormalities in risk stratification and prognostic prediction, which might be helpful to identify high risk patients more precisely at diagnosis. It also raised a possibility that a small group of ISS-Ⅲ patients carrying both 1q gain/amplification and del (17p) might represent an "extremely-high risk" subset of MM.

Objectives: To evaluate the clinical characteristics and prognosis of high risk cytogenetic abnormalities (HRCA) and various combinations of cytogenetic abnormality in patients with newly-diagnosed multiple myeloma (NDMM) . Methods: This retrospective study collected 182 NDMM patients in the First Affiliated Hospital of Jilin University between Nov. 2009 and May 2018. HRCA included 1q+, del (17p) , t (4;14) , and t (14;16) detected by FISH, and non-HRCA included del (13q) , t (11;14) detected by FISH. The clinical characteristics among three groups, including cases who carrying a single HRCA, 1 HRCA in combination with non-HRCA and cases carrying two or more HRCAs (double/triple-hit) were observed. Kaplan-Meier curve was used to analyze both progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) for the three groups. Results: The survivals of patients with 1 HRCA in combination with non-HRCA were similar to those with two or more HRCAs (double/triple-hit) , the median PFS (mPFS) was 19.1 m vs 12.1 m ( P =0.248) and median OS (mOS) was 29.6 m vs 29.3 m ( P =0.774) . Furthermore, the prognosis of these two groups were both inferior to patients with a single HRCA, respectively. (mPFS: 32.2 m, P =0.040, P =0.001; mOS: 42.3 m, P =0.021, P =0.041) . Strikingly, both the mPFS and the mOS of patients with 1 HRCA in combination with non-HRCA (regardless of high risk or not) were significantly shorter than that of cases with a single HRCA (mPFS: 15.1 m vs 32.2 m, HR =2.126, 95% CI 1.176-3.843, P =0.005; mOS: 29.3 m vs 42.3 m, HR =1.442, 95% CI 0.705-2.950, P =0.011) . Conclusion: It is of prognostic significance value for detecting double/triple-hit based on FISH cytogenetics in NDMM.

Objective: To evaluate the prognostic value of kinetic changes in minimal residual disease (MRD) status, as well as its relationship with risk stratification, therapeutic response and treatment in patients with newly-diagnosed multiple myeloma (MM) . Methods: A total of 135 patients with newly-diagnosed MM were screened, and 105 patients who achieved VGPR or more as the best responses were included into this study. The MRD status was determined by multiparameter flow cytometry (MFC) at multiple intervals after two cycles of treatment until clinical relapse, death, or last follow-up. The statistical methods included Kaplan-Meier analysis, Cox regression, etc. Results: ①In all 135 patients, 57.8% (78/135) patients achieved MRD negativity (MRD(-)) after treatment. In 105 patients who achieved VGPR and thus included in this study, the MRD(-) rate was 72.4% (76/105) , with a median interval of 3 months from starting treatment to achievement of MRD(-) status. ②The 2-year PFS rate of patients with MRD(-) status was significantly higher than that of MRD(+) status (62.2% vs 41.3%, P =0.001) , while MRD persistence (MRD(+)) was an independent factor for poor prognosis (multivariate analysis for PFS: P =0.044, HR =3.039, 95% CI 1.029-8.974) . ③Loss of MRD(-) status (i.e., MRD reappearance) showed inferior outcomes compared with MRD sustained negative ones, the PFS was 18 months versus not reach ( P <0.001) and the OS was not reach for both ( P =0.002) . ④The 2-year PFS and OS rates of patients with duration of MRD(-)status≥12 months were significantly higher than those of the control group (PFS: 77.7% vs 36.7%, P <0.001; OS: 96.4% vs 57.9%, P <0.001 respectively) . Duration of MRD(-) status was associated with a marked reduction in risk of relapse or death (univariate analysis for PFS: P <0.001, HR =0.865, 95% CI 0.815-0.918; for OS: P =0.001, HR =0.850, 95% CI 0.741-0.915 respectively) . ⑤Moreover, even in patients carrying high-risk cytogenetic abnormalities (CA) or ineligible for ASCT, MRD negativity remained its prognostic value to predict PFS (high-risk CA medianPFS: not reach vs 19 months, P =0.006; ineligible for ASCT medianPFS: not reach vs 25 months, P =0.052 respectively) . ⑥Last, treatment with the bortezomib-based regimens contributed to prolonged MRD(-) duration (median MRD(-) duratio: 25 months vs 10 months, P =0.034) . Conclusion: Our findings supported MRD(+) status as an independent poor prognostic factor in MM patients, which implicated that duration of MRD(-) status also played a significant role in evaluation of prognosis, while loss of MRD(-)status might serve as an early biomarker for relapse. Therefore, monitoring of MRD kinetics might more precisely predict prognosis, as well as guide treatment decision, especially for when to start retreatment in relapsed patients.