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This research aims to determine early-life population parameters and hatch date of sharpsnout seabream (Diplodus puntazzo Walbaum, 1792) juveniles using microstructure analyses of sagittal otoliths collected from the Sea of Marmara, Türkiye. Specimens were collected using an experimental beach seine at 12 stations from November 2021 to March 2022. The mean catch per unit effort (CPUE) was 1.1 individuals per haul, with 44.4% of the total D. puntazzo specimens collected at the Erdek Station. A negative allometric growth was calculated from the length-weight relationship equation (W=0.0178L2.698). The daily age ranged between 39 days-1 and 141 days-1, with a mean of 78.9 ± 2.29 days-1. The daily growth rate and mortality ratio were calculated as 0.213 mm/day and 4.38%, respectively. The hatching mainly occurred in September and October. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Cardiac arrest (CA) is a leading cause of death in the United States (US). Social determinants of health may impact CA outcomes. We aimed to assess mortality trends, disparities, and the influence of the social vulnerability index (SVI) on CA outcomes in the young. Methods: We conducted a cross‐sectional analysis of age‐adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs) related to CA in the United States from the Years 1999 to 2020 in individuals aged 35 years and younger. Data were obtained from death certificates and analyzed using log‐linear regression models. We examined disparities in mortality rates based on demographic variables. We also explored the impact of the SVI on CA mortality. Results: A total of 4792 CA deaths in the young were identified. Overall AAMR decreased from 0.20 in 1999 to 0.14 in 2020 with an average annual percentage change of −1.3% (p =.001). Black (AAMR: 0.30) and male populations (AAMR: 0.14) had higher AAMR compared with White (AAMR: 0.11) and female (AAMR: 0.11) populations, respectively. Nonmetropolitan (AAMR: 0.29) and Southern (AAMR: 0.26) regions were also impacted by higher AAMR compared with metropolitan (AAMR: 0.11) and other US census regions, respectively. A higher SVI was associated with greater mortality risks related to CA (risk ratio: 1.82 [95% CI, 1.77–1.87]). Conclusions: Our analysis of CA in the young revealed disparities based on demographics, with a decline in AAMR from 1999 to 2020. There is a correlation between a higher SVI and increased CA mortality risk, highlighting the importance of targeted interventions to address these disparities effectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Epidemiological study of sex differences in incidence and risk factors of heart failure (HF), and subsequent mortality attributed to HF in the Chinese general population is lacking. This study aims to assess the sex differences in the incidence and risk factors of hospitalization for HF and evaluate the sex differences in population attributable fractions (PAFs) for the subsequent mortality among the general population. Methods: Data were from a sub-cohort of the Patient-Centered Evaluative Assessment of Cardiac Events Million Persons Project in China. Fine and Gray models were conducted to calculate the hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) accounting for the competing risk of all-cause mortality. Propensity score matching analysis and subgroup analyses were used to verify the robustness of the results. Adjusted PAFs of HF for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality were evaluated by sex. Results: Of the 102,278 participants, 60.5% were women, and the mean age was 54.3 years. After a median follow-up of 3.52 years, 1588 cases of hospitalization for HF were identified. After adjusting for the covariates, women had 31% (95% CI: 0.61–0.79) lower risk for HF than men. The results were consistent in the propensity score matching cohort and across all subgroup analyses (all P sex-subgroups interaction > 0.05). Although women were associated with a lower risk of HF, they had a higher PAF (24.2%, 95% CI: 16.0-31.6) for subsequent cardiovascular mortality than men (16.5%, 95% CI: 11.3–21.5). Several significant differences in risk factors for HF were noted between sexes. Conclusion: In the southern Chinese population, women had a lower risk of HF but had a higher cardiovascular mortality fraction attributed to HF than men. Sex-specific preventative strategies and management for HF should be warranted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lobster Panulirus polyphagus has a fairly high economic value and is found in the estuary waters of Tarakan City. This research aims to study the growth and mortality model of Lobster P. polyphagus originating in the estuary waters of Tarakan City. The research method was carried out using a quantitative descriptive method. Sampling was conducted 14 times from December 2021-May 2022 using gill nets. The results showed that the male sex ratio was more than the female. Allometric growth of males and females is negative allometric with a thin body shape. The structure of the size obtained was mostly in males ranging from 18.3-20.6 cm, and females around 20.5-22.2 cm. The maximum length growth of P. polyphagus based on von Bertalanffy's growth model was 31.519 cm in males and 31.374 cm in females. The total mortality (Z) of P. polyphagus for males and females was 1.104 and 1.119; catch mortality (F) of 0.106 and 0.253; natural mortality (M) of 0.998 and 0.866; exploitation rate (E) of 0.096 and 0.226, respectively. The high natural mortality causes the extinction of the Lobster species, so good management is needed so that it is sustainable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The minimal and optimal daily step counts for health improvements remain unclear. A meta-analysis was performed to quantify dose-response associations of objectively measured step count metrics in the general population. Electronic databases were searched from inception to October 2022. Primary outcomes included all-cause mortality and incident cardiovascular disease (CVD). Study results were analyzed using generalized least squares and random-effects models. In total, 111,309 individuals from 12 studies were included. Significant risk reductions were observed at 2,517 steps/d for all-cause mortality (adjusted HR [aHR]: 0.92; 95% CI: 0.84-0.999) and 2,735 steps/d for incident CVD (aHR: 0.89; 95% CI: 0.79-0.999) compared with 2,000 steps/d (reference). Additional steps resulted in nonlinear risk reductions of all-cause mortality and incident CVD with an optimal dose at 8,763 (aHR: 0.40; 95% CI: 0.38-0.43) and 7,126 steps/d (aHR: 0.49; 95% CI: 0.45-0.55), respectively. Increments from a low to an intermediate or a high cadence were independently associated with risk reductions of all-cause mortality. Sex did not influence the dose-response associations, but after stratification for assessment device and wear location, pronounced risk reductions were observed for hip-worn accelerometers compared with pedometers and wrist-worn accelerometers. As few as about 2,600 and about 2,800 steps/d yield significant mortality and CVD benefits, with progressive risk reductions up to about 8,800 and about 7,200 steps/d, respectively. Additional mortality benefits were found at a moderate to high vs a low step cadence. These findings can extend contemporary physical activity prescriptions given the easy-to-understand concept of step count. (Dose-Response Relationship Between Daily Step Count and Health Outcomes: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analyses; CRD42021244747) [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We explored the relationship between the copy number of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA-CN) and all-cause natural mortality. We examined a random population sample in 2003/2005 (n = 9360, men/women, 45–69, the HAPIEE project) and followed up for 15 years. Using a nested case–control design, we selected non-external deaths among those free from baseline cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and cancer (n = 371), and a sex- and age-stratified control (n = 785). The odds ratios (ORs) of death were 1.06 (95%CI 1.01–1.11) per one-decile decrease in mtDNA-CN independent of age, sex, metabolic factors, smoking, alcohol intake and education. The age–sex-adjusted ORs of death in the second and first tertiles of mtDNA-CN vs. the top tertile were 2.35 (95% CI 1.70–3.26) and 1.59 (1.16–2.17); an increased risk was confined to the second tertile after controlling for smoking and metabolic factors. The multivariable-adjusted OR of CVD death was 1.92 (95% CI 1.18–3.15) in tertile 2 vs. the top tertile of mtDNA-CN, and for cancer-related death the ORs were 3.66 (95% CI 2.21–6.05) and 2.29 (95% CI 1.43–3.68) in tertiles 2 and 1 vs. the top tertile. In the Siberian population cohort, the mtDNA-CN was an inverse predictor of the 15-year risk of natural mortality, due to the greatest impact of CVD and cancer-related death. The findings merit attention for exploring further the role of mtDNA in human ageing and the diversity of mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Left ventricular ejection fraction (EF) is the most commonly used echocardiographic measurement of LV systolic function. Myocardial contraction fraction (MCF) may be a more accurate assessment of LV systolic function than EF. Limited data are available regarding the prognostic value of MCF compared to EF in a population referred for echocardiography. Objectives: To assess whether MCF was predictive of all‐cause mortality in a population referred for echocardiography. Methods: All consecutive subjects undergoing echocardiography in a university‐affiliated laboratory during a 5‐year period were retrieved for analysis. MCF was calculated by dividing LV stroke volume (LV end diastolic volume–LV end systolic volume) by LV myocardial volume and multiplied by 100. All cause mortality was the primary endpoint. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was used to evaluate independent variables associated with survival. Results: 18,149 continuous subjects (median age 60 years, 53% male) were included. Median MCF in the cohort was 52% (interquartile range 40–64) while median EF was 64% (56‐69). Any reduction in MCF from a value of 60 was significantly associated with survival on multivariable analysis. When echo parameters including EF, e:e', elevated TR gradient and significant MR were added to the model, MCF less than 50% remained significantly associated with mortality. MCF was also independently associated with both death and cardiovascular hospitalization. The AUC for MCF was.66 (95% confidence interval (CI):.65‐.67) while for EF the AUC was only.58 (95% CI:.57‐.59), a statistically significant difference (p <.0001). Conclusions: Reduced MCF is independently associated with mortality in a large population referred for echocardiography. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bogue (Boops boops, Linnaeus, 1758) that was gathered in Antalya Bay had their ages, growth rates, and mortality examined. Using the von Bertalanffy equation, Lt = 37.50 (1 - e-0.15(t + 1.32)) (R2 = 0.988), growth in length was expressed for the entire sample without revealing any disparities between the sexes. The values of the allometric coefficient (b) of the length-weight relationships specify negative allometric growth (b < 3) in females, males, and overall sexes. Total and natural mortality were found to be Z= 1.12 y-1, and M= 0.36 y-1. The exploitation ratio E = 0.68 indicated that the population was overexploited. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Large-bodied Panulirus ornatus lobsters are economically important because they are an aquatic biota. It is one of the most important commodities in the city of Tarakan. The aim is to analyze the growth patterns and mortality of P. ornatus from the West Waters of Tarakan City. Method using a quantitative descriptive. The purposive sampling method was used by dragging the gill net fishing gear to the P. ornatus lobster ground area, and the collection was carried out 16 times in 7 months (December 2021-July 2022). The results of P. ornatus showed that the male sex ratio was higher than the female. The growth model was allometrically negative, and the criteria for the condition index were fat and thin. The growth pattern of Model Von Bertalanffy males is slower than females. However, the growth rate to achieve asymptotic growth for males is faster than for females. The total mortality, catch mortality, and exploitation rate of males was higher than females. However, the mortality of the female nature was higher than that of males. P. ornatus should be managed in the waters of West Tarakan using the domestication and restocking technique to increase sustainability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives To conduct the first-ever nationwide, population-based cohort study investigating survival patterns of all patients with incident SSc in Sweden compared with matched individuals from the Swedish general population. Methods We used the National Patient Register to identify patients with incident SSc diagnosed between 2004 and 2015 and the Total Population Register to identify comparators (1:5), matched on sex, birth year and residential area. We followed them until death, emigration or the end of 2016. Follow-up of the general population comparators started the same date as their matched patients were included. We estimated all-cause survival using the Kaplan–Meier method, crude mortality rates and hazard ratios (HRs) using flexible parametric models. Results We identified 1139 incident patients with SSc and 5613 matched comparators. The median follow-up was 5.0 years in patients with SSc and 6.0 years for their comparators. During follow-up, 268 deaths occurred in patients with SSc and 554 in their comparators. The 5-year survival was 79.8% and the 10-year survival was 67.7% among patients with SSc vs 92.9% and 84.8%, respectively, for the comparators (P  < 0.0001). The mortality rate in patients with SSc was 42.1 per 1000 person-years and 15.8 per 1000 person-years in their comparators, corresponding to an HR of 3.7 (95% CI 2.9, 4.7) at the end of the first year of follow-up and 2.0 (95% CI 1.4, 2.8) at the end of the follow-up period. Conclusion Despite advances in understanding the disease and in diagnostic methods over the past decades, survival is still severely impacted in Swedish patients diagnosed with SSc between 2004 and 2015. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple Summary: Since San-Huang-Xie-Xin-Tang (SHXXT) is a potent anti-tumor therapy and breast cancer is the most common cause of cancer deaths worldwide, in the present retrospective cohort study, we explore the influence of SHXXT and its constituents on the mortality rate by analyzing 5387 breast cancer patients taking SHXXT and its constituents and 5387 breast cancer patients not using SHXXT and its constituents. Our study confirms SHXXT and its constituents are a useful alternative therapy to decrease the breast cancer mortality rate. In particular, the use of SHXXT is more effective than the use of only one constituent. With the increasing cumulative days of use and the annual average dose, the anti-tumor effect is more pronounced. Globally, breast cancer is the most common cause of cancer deaths. In Taiwan, it is the most prevalent cancer among females. Since San-Huang-Xie-Xin-Tang (SHXXT) exerts not only an anti-inflammatory but an immunomodulatory effect, it may act as a potent anti-tumor agent. Herein, the study aimed to explore the influence of SHXXT and its constituents on the mortality rate among breast cancer patients in Taiwan regarding the component effect and the dose–relationship effect. By using the Taiwan National Health Insurance (NHI) Research Database (NHIRD), the study analyzed 5387 breast cancer patients taking Chinese herbal medicine (CHM) and 5387 breast cancer patients not using CHM. CHM means SHXXT and its constituents in the study. The Kaplan–Meier method was utilized to determine the mortality probabilities among patients. Whether the CHM influences the mortality rate among patients was estimated by Cox proportional hazard regression analysis. The use of CHM could lower the cancer mortality rate by 59% in breast cancer patients. The protective effect was parallel to the cumulative days of CHM use and the annual average CHM dose. In addition, the mortality rate was lower in patients who used SHXXT compared to those who only used one of its constituents. SHXXT and its constituents were all promising therapeutic weapons against breast cancer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims: Excess mortality during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has been studied in many countries. Accounting for population aging has important implications for excess mortality estimates. We show the importance of adjustment for age trends in a small-scale mortality analysis as well as the importance of analysing different pandemic phases for mortality in an urban population. Methods: Population data for Frankfurt/Main for 2016–2021 were obtained from the Municipal Office of Statistics, City of Frankfurt/Main. Mortality data from 2016 to 2021 were provided by the Hessian State Authority. For standardized mortality ratios (SMR=observed number of deaths divided by the expected number of deaths), the expected number of deaths was calculated in two ways: For SMR crude , the mean mortality rate from the years 2016–2019 was multiplied by the total number of residents in 2020 and 2021 separately. For SMR adjusted , this procedure was performed separately for five age groups, and the numbers of expected deaths per age group were added. Results: SMR crude was 1.006 (95% CI: 0.980–1.031) in 2020, and 1.047 (95% CI: 1.021–1.073) in 2021. SMR adjusted was 0.976 (95% CI: 0.951–1.001) in 2020 and 0.998 (95% CI: 0.973–1.023) in 2021. Excess mortality was observed during pandemic wave 2, but not during pandemic waves 1 and 3. Conclusion: Taking the aging of the population into account, no excess mortality was observed in Frankfurt/Main in 2020 and 2021. Without adjusting for population aging trends in Frankfurt /Main, mortality would have been greatly overestimated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the second half of the 18th century, the presidios had some changes in terms of their objectives. One of them was to become a settlement enclave as well as being a defensive bastion. To measure the success of the presidio as a demographic settlement, the objective of this article is to analyze the population dynamics and nuptiality in the case of the Monclova presidio from 1776 to 1823. The sources used are the records of baptisms, marriages and burials of the presidio that will be analyzed with the aggregative method. It is concluded that there were some similarities between the presidio and other settlements in terms of their demographic structure, but the natural growth remained negative due to the excess mortality due to the epidemics of the period. In this sense, nuptiality failed to sustain population growth due to the scarcity of second marriages that created new families and self-regulate their growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human-wildlife conflict has always been a notable matter of contention between conservation efforts and rising development pressure in a human-dominated landscape. An analysis has been done to understand leopard-human conflict in Rajasthan, India, for a decade. The study has used real field data and situations to assess the crisis and explore possible remedies for the conflict and its impact on the leopard population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article discusses the longevity of the Paraná state population, in order to present prospective scenarios with horizon in the year 2035. The objective is to provide estimates supported on the construction of Mortality Tables, initially for a trend scenario and, from it, three structural variants, named as deceleration, desirable and overcoming. It also consists of identifying the main current causes of death incidents throughout the life cycle of people, so that, later, strategies can be developed to prevent or control the risk factors to which the population is exposed, conditions and standards of well-being, with extensive impact on life expectancy. Thus, the increase in years of life of the population of Paraná goes primarily, on the one hand, by the emphasis on reducing mortality from external causes and, on the other, on the ability to continuously and sufficiently absorb the growing demand for prevention and control of NCDs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite decreases in overall HIV mortality in the U.S., large racial inequities persist. Most previous analyses of HIV mortality and mortality inequities have utilized national- or state-level data. Using vital statistics mortality data and American Community Survey population estimates, we calculated HIV mortality rates and Black:White HIV mortality rate ratios (RR) for the 30 most populous U.S. cities at two time points, 2010–2014 (T1) and 2015–2019 (T2). Almost all cities (28) had HIV mortality rates higher than the national rate at both time points. At T2, HIV mortality rates ranged from 0.8 per 100,000 (San Jose, CA) to 15.2 per 100,000 (Baltimore, MD). Across cities, Black people were approximately 2–8 times more likely to die from HIV compared to White people at both time points. Over the decade, these racial disparities decreased at the national level (T1: RR = 11.0, T2: RR = 9.8), and in one city (Charlotte, NC). We identified large geographic and racial inequities in HIV mortality in U.S. urban areas. These city-specific data may motivate change in cities and can help guide city leaders and other health advocates as they implement, test, and support policies and programming to decrease HIV mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• 43,231 U.S. deaths listed epilepsy as a cause of death during 2011–2021. • 39% listed epilepsy as the underlying and 61% as a contributing cause of death. • Age-adjusted epilepsy mortality rates significantly increased during 2011–2021. • Epilepsy mortality rates differed by age, sex, and racial/ethnic subgroups. • Epilepsy mortality rates also differed by geographic region and urban-rural status. Studies on epilepsy mortality in the United States are limited. We used the National Vital Statistics System Multiple Cause of Death data to investigate mortality rates and trends during 2011–2021 for epilepsy (defined by the International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision, codes G40.0–G40.9) as an underlying, contributing, or any cause of death (i.e., either an underlying or contributing cause) for U.S. residents. We also examined epilepsy as an underlying or contributing cause of death by selected sociodemographic characteristics to assess mortality rate changes and disparities in subpopulations. During 2011–2021, the overall age-standardized mortality rates for epilepsy as an underlying (39 % of all deaths) or contributing (61 % of all deaths) cause of death increased 83.6 % (from 2.9 per million to 6.4 per million population) as underlying cause and 144.1 % (from 3.3 per million to 11.0 per million population) as contributing cause (P < 0.001 for both based on annual percent changes). Compared to 2011–2015, in 2016–2020 mortality rates with epilepsy as an underlying or contributing cause of death were higher overall and in nearly all subgroups. Overall, mortality rates with epilepsy as an underlying or contributing cause of death were higher in older age groups, among males than females, among non-Hispanic Black or non-Hispanic American Indian/Alaska Native persons than non-Hispanic White persons, among those living in the West and Midwest than those living in the Northeast, and in nonmetro counties compared to urban regions. Results identify priority subgroups for intervention to reduce mortality in people with epilepsy and eliminate mortality disparity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate prediction of severity and mortality in diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) is important for allocation of resources. The APACHE II and SOFA scores are used to predict mortality in critically ill patients, however neither has been tested exclusively in DKA. We sought to determine if these scoring systems can accurately predict mortality in patients with DKA. This was an observational study of patients presenting to an urban tertiary care center with a diagnosis of DKA. Adult patients (age ± 18 years) with glucose > 250 mg/dL, bicarbonate = 20 mEg/L, an anion gap x 16 mEg/L, pH = 7.30, and urine ketones were included. Predicted mortality based upon APACHE II and SOFA scores were compared to observed mortality. A total of 50 patients were included. There was no observed mortality in our population. The median APACHE II score was 10 (IQR: 6, 15) which predicted a mortality of 15% and the median SOFA score was 1 (IQR: 0, 2) which predicted a mortality of 0%. In summary, we found the APACHE II illness severity score does not accurately predict mortality in a population of patients with DKA, while the SOFA score appears to predict mortality in the same population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: This study aimed to investigate the prevalence of 7‐, 30‐, 60‐, and 365‐day overall and cause‐specific mortality following extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) support. Methods: The National Health Insurance claims database in South Korea was the data source for this population‐based cohort study. We enrolled all adult patients aged ≥18 years receiving intensive care unit ECMO support from January 1, 2005 to December 31, 2018. The study population was divided into three groups based on the main diagnoses during ECMO support: (1) cardiovascular, (2) respiratory, and (3) other diagnoses group (all other main diagnoses rather than cardiovascular or respiratory diseases). Results: A total of 18 697 patients were included in the final analysis (64.5%, 10.9%, and 24.6% in the cardiovascular, respiratory, and other groups, respectively). The corresponding 7‐, 30‐, 60‐, and 365‐day mortality rates in these groups were 33.1%, 56.1%, 62.4%, and 67.7%. Kaplan–Meier curves demonstrated that the median survival time was shortest in the cardiovascular group (12.0 days, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 11.3–12.7), with 31.0 (95% CI: 28.5–33.6) and 49.0 (95% CI: 44.4–57.6) day survival in the respiratory and other diagnoses groups (p < 0.001). Conclusions: Approximately one‐third of patients died within 7 days, half of the patients died within 30 days, and two‐thirds died within 365 days of ECMO support. Overall survival time was shortest in the cardiovascular group, followed by that of the respiratory group. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The baptisms of Valladolid, Michoacán, in colonial times show population growth, as well as mortality crises, also illustrate changes in the allocation of "calidad" depending on the population evolution of the city, the parents' interests, the perception and convictions of the priest and the provisions of the ecclesiastical authorities, among other elements. The records demonstrate the different groups that formed the Vallisoletana society since the seventeenth century, mainly Indians, Spanish, and Africans, and to a lesser extent, Filipinos and Chichimeco Indians. The "mestizaje" began shortly after the foundation of the city, a significant number of individuals did not have an assigned "calidad" and thanks to that, they had the possibility of trespassing the color barrier. The war of independence brought changes in "calidad" allocation in addition to a population decline. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

I use data on 187 counties in the United States from 2001 to 2017 to examine local variation in the timing of the excess mortality hump, which is the period in adolescence and young adulthood when mortality rates spike in young men due to an increase in risk-taking behaviors believed to result from a surge of testosterone production and subsequent aggressive, impulsive behaviors. Using an ecological framework, I contend that certain features of the local environment will elevate testosterone production and stunt brain development, leading to behaviors that elevate the risk of death at younger ages. To explore this proposition, I assess the association between the age at the peak of the excess mortality hump in a county and local environmental conditions in that county. I find that the age at the peak of the excess mortality hump is younger in counties where the average annual temperature is high and in counties where air quality is poor. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Taking advantage of relatively well-preserved Prussian statistics, the author examines the dynamics of the Pomeranian population in the 18th century to suggest priorities for further studies at both the individual and local community level. He proposes to take the concept of the mode of reproduction as their common paradigm and also take a functionalist approach, even if detailed research may reveal that it was not external forces, as older theories proclaim, but internal forces of destabilization that finally destroyed the assumed system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to the global spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, our country, like many countries around the world, has also led to a deterioration in key demographic indicators: there has been an increase in mortality, migration has slowed or stopped, natural growth has decreased or the natural decline of the population has increased. In this paper, an attempt was made to evaluate the main components of demographic dynamics (birth rate, mortality, natural and migration movements) in 2020 within the framework of long-term trends in the development of the population, to determine the directions of influence of the pandemic on the processes of demography. Conclusions are drawn about the significant negative impact of the component of the coronavirus epidemic, which is considered a natural disaster in the system of geographical factors, on the death of the population, and forecasts are made about the possible impact on the birth rate. The demographic prospects of the territories under consideration are evaluated. In the article, an analysis of the migration processes of the population of the East Kazakhstan region was carried out, a step-by-step distribution of Population migration in the post-Soviet period was proposed and the factors of changes that occurred were identified. The purpose of the study is to study the factors of migration decline, the decrease in migration efficiency due to the strengthening of interregional socioeconomic differences in the development of Regions and the uneven attractiveness of territories. In the article, an analysis of the migration processes of the population of the East Kazakhstan region was carried out, a step-by-step distribution of Population migration in the post-Soviet period was proposed and the factors of changes that occurred were identified. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The method of family reconstitution has been considered inapplicable in Mexico, due to the multiple obstacles offered by the available documentary sources. However, this paper demonstrates that it is possible to apply this method. In Uruapan the reconstitution method was used between the late 17th century and much of the 18th century, which provided fundamental data on fecundity, age to marriage, family size, protogenic and intergenetic intervals. These data showed changes in the two registered quality groups: Indians and Rational People. Fecundity was analyzed in several components: age to marriage, years of marriage, evolution by age, years of marriage and procreated children. Fecundity was also analyzed during the study period to identify the effect of mortality crises and hollow generations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates Rev Alexander's Webster's demographic methodology in his calculation of the population of Shetland in 1755 and his conclusions, which are problematic. It sets them within a wider review of the population data for Shetland up to the 1831 Government census, the latest for which no detailed information survives. This is a local study limited to one county, but by showing how difficult it is to find reliable evidence at a parochial level, it raises questions with implications for the analysis of population throughout Scotland and elsewhere. This study shows the need to look behind the frequently quoted statistics and question the sources. It is a case study which shows that the complications of attempting to establish the accuracy of data at this detailed level encourage scepticism about national data and the conclusions based on them. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Information about the survival of species is important in many ecological applications. Yet, the estimation of a species' natural mortality rate M remains a major problem in the management and conservation of wild populations, often circumvented by applying empirical equations that relate mortality to other traits that are more easily observed. We show that mean adult M can be approximated from the general law of decay if the average maximum age reached by individuals in a cohort is known. This is possible because the proportion P of individuals surviving to the average maximum age in a cohort is surprisingly similar across a wide range of examined species at 1.5%. The likely reason for the narrow range of P is a universal increase in the rate of mortality near the end of life, providing strong evidence that the evolutionary theories of ageing are the norm in natural populations. Dureuil and Froese present a universal equation for estimating the mean adult mortality rate in natural populations. This equation is based on remarkable similarities in survival to average maximum age across a wide range of species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hyperuricaemia is a risk for premature death. This study evaluated the burden of hyperuricaemia (serum urate > 7 mg/dL) for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in 515,979 health checkup participants using an index of population attributable fraction (PAF). Prevalence of hyperuricaemia at baseline was 10.8% in total subjects (21.8% for men and 2.5% for women). During 9-year follow-up, 5952 deaths were noted, including 1164 cardiovascular deaths. In the Cox proportional hazard analysis adjusted for confounding factors, hyperuricaemia was independently associated with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality (adjusted hazard ratios [95% confidence interval]; 1.36 [1.25–1.49] and 1.69 [1.41–2.01], respectively). Adjusted PAFs of hyperuricaemia for all-cause and cardiovascular deaths were 2.9% and 4.4% (approximately 1 in 34 all-cause deaths and 1 in 23 cardiovascular deaths), respectively. In the subgroup analysis, the association between hyperuricaemia and death was stronger in men, smokers, and subjects with renal insufficiency. Adjusted PAFs for all-cause and cardiovascular deaths were 5.3% and 8.1% in men; 5.8% and 7.5% in smokers; and 5.5% and 7.3% in subjects with renal insufficiency. These results disclosed that a substantial number of all-cause and cardiovascular deaths were statistically relevant to hyperuricaemia in the community-based population, especially men, smokers, and subjects with renal insufficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigated effects of regulated hunting on a puma (Puma concolor) population on the Uncompahgre Plateau (UPSA) in southwestern Colorado, USA. We examined the hypothesis that an annual harvest rate averaging 15% of the estimated number of independent individuals using the study area would result in a stable or increasing abundance of independent pumas. We predicted hunting mortality would be compensated by 1) a reduction in other causes of mortality, thus overall survival would stay the same or increase; 2) increased reproduction rates; or 3) increased recruitment of young animals. The study occurred over 10 years (2004–2014) and was designed with a reference period (years 1–5; i.e., RY1–RY5) without puma hunting and a treatment period (years 6–10; i.e., TY1–TY5) with hunting. We captured and marked pumas on the UPSA and monitored them year‐round to examine their demographics, reproduction, and movements. We estimated abundance of independent animals using the UPSA each winter during the Colorado hunting season from reference year 2 (RY2) to treatment year 5 (TY5) using the Lincoln‐Petersen method. In addition, we surveyed hunters to investigate how their behavior influenced harvest and the population. We captured and marked 110 and 116 unique pumas in the reference and treatment periods, respectively, during 440 total capture events. Those animals produced known‐fate data for 75 adults, 75 subadults, and 118 cubs, which we used to estimate sex‐ and life stage‐specific survival rates. In the reference period, independent pumas more than doubled in abundance and exhibited high survival. Natural mortality was the major cause of death to independent individuals, followed by other human causes (e.g., vehicle strikes, depredation control). In the treatment period, hunters killed 35 independent pumas and captured and released 30 others on the UPSA. Abundance of independent pumas using the UPSA declined 35% after 4 years of hunting with harvest rates averaging 15% annually. Harvest rates at the population scale, including marked independent pumas with home ranges exclusively on the UPSA, overlapping the UPSA, and on adjacent management units were higher, averaging 22% annually in the same 4 years leading to the population decline. Adult females comprised 21% of the total harvest. The top‐ranked model explaining variation in adult survival (Ŝ) indicated a period effect interacting with sex. Annual adult male survival was higher in the reference period (Ŝ = 0.96, 95% CI = 0.75–0.99) than in the treatment period (Ŝ = 0.40, 95% CI = 0.22–0.57). Annual adult female survival was 0.86 (95% CI = 0.72–0.94) in the reference period and 0.74 (95% CI = 0.63–0.82) in the treatment period. The top subadult model showed that female subadult survival was constant across the reference and treatment periods (Ŝ = 0.68, 95% CI = 0.43–0.84), whereas survival of subadult males exhibited the same trend as that of adult males: higher in the reference period (Ŝ = 0.92, 95% CI = 0.57–0.99) and lower in the treatment period (Ŝ = 0.43, 95% CI = 0.25–0.60). Cub survival was best explained by fates of mothers when cubs were dependent (Ŝmother alive = 0.51, 95% CI = 0.35–0.66; Ŝmother died = 0.14, 95% CI = 0.03–0.34). The age distribution for independent pumas skewed younger in the treatment period. Adult males were most affected by harvest; their abundance declined by 59% after 3 hunting seasons and we did not detect any males >6 years old after 2 hunting seasons. Pumas born on the UPSA that survived to subadult stage exhibited both philopatry and dispersal. Local recruitment and immigration contributed to positive growth in the reference period, but recruitment did not compensate for the losses of adult males and partially compensated for losses of adult females in the treatment period. Average birth intervals were similar in the reference and treatment periods (reference period = 18.3 months, 95% CI = 15.5–21.1; treatment period = 19.4 months, 95% CI = 16.2–22.6), but litter sizes (reference period = 2.8, 95% CI = 2.4–3.1; treatment period = 2.4, 95% CI = 2.0–2.8) and parturition rates (reference period = 0.63, 95% CI = 0.49–0.75; treatment period = 0.48, 95% CI = 0.37–0.59) declined slightly in the treatment period. Successful hunters used dogs, selected primarily males, and harvested pumas in 1–2 days (median). We found that an annual harvest rate at the population scale averaging 22% of the independent pumas over 4 years and with >20% adult females in the total harvest greatly reduced abundance. At this scale, annual mortality rates of independent animals from hunting averaged 6.3 times greater than from all other human causes and 4.6 times greater than from all natural causes during the population decline. Hunting deaths were largely additive and reproduction and recruitment did not compensate for this mortality source. Hunters generally selected male pumas, resulting in a decline in their survival and abundance, and the age structure of the population. We recommend that regulated hunting in a source‐sink structure be used to conserve puma populations, provide sustainable hunting opportunities, and address puma‐human conflicts. © 2021 The Wildlife Society. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper considers an age-dependent population model where the mortality function is given by the Tornquist distribution. As a result of the investigation, we obtain conditions of the existence of nonnegative stationary states in this model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Evaluations of the conservation status of the endangered North Atlantic right whale as well as many other wildlife species often rely extensively on counts and cause‐of‐death determinations of carcasses found accidentally or during dedicated surveys. Even when survey effort dedicated to a population is extensive, many deaths may go unseen. We used an abundance estimation model to derive estimates of cryptic mortality for North Atlantic right whales and found that observed carcasses accounted for only 36% of all estimated death during 1990–2017. We found strong evidence that total mortality varied over time, and that observed carcass counts were poor predictors of estimated annual numbers of whales dying. Importantly, there were substantial differences between fractions of deaths determined to be entanglement related during necropsy (49%) and the fraction of cryptic deaths suffering serious injuries related to entanglement (87%). Although we concluded that a single year's observations produced poor estimates of carcass detection rates due to the volatility of ratios of small counts, ratio estimates of data pooled over periods of consistent survey may offer better information on detection rates. Additionally, it appears unwise to consider cause of death determinations from detected carcasses as representative of cause‐specific mortality rates in right whales given the large number of seriously injured whales from entanglement that are likely part of the unseen mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Smallpox is unique among infectious diseases in the degree to which it devastated human populations, its long history of control interventions, and the fact that it has been successfully eradicated. Mortality from smallpox in London, England was carefully documented, weekly, for nearly 300 years, providing a rare and valuable source for the study of ecology and evolution of infectious disease. We describe and analyze smallpox mortality in London from 1664 to 1930. We digitized the weekly records published in the London Bills of Mortality (LBoM) and the Registrar General's Weekly Returns (RGWRs). We annotated the resulting time series with a sequence of historical events that might have influenced smallpox dynamics in London. We present a spectral analysis that reveals how periodicities in reported smallpox mortality changed over decades and centuries; many of these changes in epidemic patterns are correlated with changes in control interventions and public health policies. We also examine how the seasonality of reported smallpox mortality changed from the 17th to 20th centuries in London. This study presents the complete historical weekly record of smallpox mortality in London over more than 250 years (1664-1930), describes it using spectral analyses, and discusses it in the context of events and interventions that might have influenced infectious disease dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many wildlife populations are experiencing a variety of environmental pressures due to the direct and indirect consequences of a changing climate. In the northeast, USA, moose Alces alces are declining in large part because of the increasing parasitism by winter tick Dermacentor albipictus, facilitated by high host density and optimal environmental conditions. To test this hypothesis, and better understand the influence of this interaction on the stability of the regional population, we constructed a population viability model using data collected through comprehensive survival and productivity studies in 2002–2005 and 2014–2018 in northern New Hampshire. Years of heavy tick infestation (epizootics) saw a marked reduction in calf survival (< 50%), adult calving (< 60%), twinning rate (< 5%) and complete loss of yearling productivity. We conducted population viability analysis using VORTEX ver. 10.2 to model this moose population for 40 years using mean demographics from both time periods, including environmental variation measured in the field during winter tick epizootic (2002, 2014, 2015, 2016) and non-epizootic (2003, 2004, 2005, 2017) years. This exercise highlights the influence of winter tick infestation on the trajectory of the population with the potential for rapid population growth or decline depending on the frequency of epizootics. We suggest a shift in moose management strategy focused on lowering moose density, assuming continued influence of climate change on the host–parasite relationship. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: There is a lack of updated information on premature death and years of potential life lost (YPLL) among human immunodeficiency (HIV)-positive women with cervical cancer. We hypothesize that increased access to preventive resources such as antiretroviral therapy, preexposure prophylaxis, and human papillomavirus vaccines has reduced premature mortality and YPLL in these women in the previous decades.Methods: We used data from the National Inpatient Sample database from 2003 to the third quarter of 2015, and restricted the analysis to HIV-positive women with or without cervical cancer. Joinpoint regression models were run to identify trends in the rates of HIV and cervical cancer. Overall and age-stratified YPLL were calculated for HIV-positive women with cervical cancer. Adjusted survey logistic regression models were built to determine the predictive factors of in-hospital mortality among women living with HIV.Results: Among hospitalized women, low-income, non-Hispanic Blacks, and patients aged 40 to 59 years experienced greater frequencies of HIV/cervical cancer comorbidity. The prevalence of HIV hospitalizations increased by an average annual percentage of 0.9% (95% confidence interval 0.3-1.6). YPLL decreased in HIV-positive women living with and without cervical cancer by 4.9% and 4.3%, respectively. The trajectory for YPLL was not uniform across age groups. YPLL decreased substantially in women aged 20 to 29 years with HIV/cervical cancer comorbidity. Cervical cancer remained a significant predictor of mortality among HIV-positive women when adjusted for age, race, and insurance coverage.Conclusions: Within a large, national sample from 2003 to 2015, we found an overall declining trend in YPLL in women living with HIV/cervical cancer comorbidity. In-hospital mortality among HIV-positive women was associated with cervical cancer, age, race, and insurance coverage. We recommend further investigation into the quality of HIV and cervical cancer treatment and prevention services for the sociodemographic groups described. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Eastern Imperial Eagle is a globally threatened species, represented with not more than 35–40 pairs in Bulgaria. As a facultative scavenger feeding on carcasses and parts of dead domestic and wild animals, this species is extremely vulnerable to poisonous baits and toxic agents, intentionally or accidentally set up in its food. The present study identified electrocution and poisoning as the main mortality factors for the eagles in Bulgaria. We analysed a total of 56 cases among which 44 cases were related to the mortality of non-territorial eagles in different age classes, and we found 12 dead or distressed territorial birds recorded between 1992–2019. The main mortality factor was electrocution, accounted for 30.4% of fatalities. The poisoning was the cause of mortality in 12.5% of the non-territorial and 10.7% of the breeding birds. Some of the cases were laboratory confirmed as intoxication, while the others, based on the history, clinical symptoms and field evidence, indicated poisoning. The most commonly used toxic agents were anticholinesterase's inhibitors. As a result of a timely therapy applied to the live birds found in distress with symptoms of poisoning, six eagles were successfully treated and released back in the wild. We found that mortality of eagles depended on the age of birds, breeding or dispersal grounds, while season had no significant effect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the nineteenth century, the census has provided the number of 100‐year‐olds in Brazil, one of the most populous countries worldwide. In 1900, 4,438 individuals reported themselves to be centenarians, a figure that increased about fivefold by the 2000 census. However, due to data quality issues, we are skeptical about the real size of the recorded population in the Brazilian census. We offer alternative estimates of the most likely number of centenarians during the twentieth century by combining variable‐r relations with different mortality models. Our results indicate there was virtually no centenarian at the beginning of the twentieth century. The population has become larger than 1,000 individuals only in the 1990s, suggesting there has been an extensive, although diminishing, overenumeration of centenarians in the census records. Our results can help policymakers to plan the demands of a growing old age population in places that face stricter family and public budget constraints. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

On 1 January 2020, France had a population of slightly above 67 million people, of whom 14.4 million were under age 18. The downtrend in births continued (754,000) in 2019, as did the ongoing increase in deaths (612,000). Natural increase is still the main driver of population growth. Inflows of foreigners from outside the European Union and Switzerland increased in 2018 (249,474 arrivals, up 4.9% from 2017). One in 10 incoming migrants were minors. The total fertility rate remained practically stable in 2019 (1.87 children per woman), and the increase in mean age at childbearing continued. Births to mothers under age 18 accounted for 0.5% of total births. The number of abortions (230,000) and the total abortion rate (0.58) increased slightly in 2019. The steady downtrend among women under 18 continued, however, and this age group accounted for just 3.5% of abortions in that year. Marriages (235,000) and PACS civil unions (209,000) increased in 2018, although the numerical difference between them continued to narrow. Age at marriage in France pursued its increase (35.4 years for women and 37.9 years for men). In 2018, 2.6% of marriages and 4.1% of PACS unions were between same-sex partners. Remarriage after divorce or widowhood is increasingly rare, and each divorce affects less than one minor child on average (0.91). Life expectancy is still increasing, but at a slower pace. It reached 79.7 years for men and 85.6 years for women in 2019. Mortality below age 15 is very low, and most deaths in this age group occur in the first year of life. Contrary to many other European countries, infant mortality has stagnated in France for the last 10 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reviews the progress of the multiple population mortality model and the defects in parameter estimation and proposes an effective method to improve the performance of the mortality model. We set up a multiple population group, using the data of mainland China, Hong Kong (China), and Japan, to test fitting performance and forecasting performance. Using the TSWLS and TSSVD methods in a multiple population stochastic mortality model has advantages in fitting performance and robustness. In addition, the forecasting value of mortality ratio between any two populations can converge to a fixed constant in a certain time period which obeys the regular of human biological characteristics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Data collected from 2000 to 2010 on a predator–prey system in eastern Tuscany (central Italy) were used to investigate the relative impact of human harvest and natural predation by wolves (Canis lupus) on the local populations of their main prey: wild boar (Sus scrofa) and roe deer (Capreolus capreolus). We estimated the percent composition of wolf diet from scat analysis (n = 2,150) and converted it into ingested biomass and number of killed individuals by quantifying the energy requirement of the resident wolf pack based on the field metabolic rate formula. Moreover, we collected data on hunting bags, and investigating the age/weight class preferences of both wolves and hunters compared their impacts on the two ungulate populations. In both prey species, losses due to hunting resulted to be eight to nine times higher than those due to wolf predation. In terms of number of individuals removed per year, the wild boar was the main prey species for wolves (mean ± SD: 83 ± 23) and the most harvested by hunters (mean ± SD: 609 ± 241). Wolves targeted the intermediate weight class (10–35 kg) in wild boar and showed no preference for a specific class of roe deer, while hunters targeted the largest classes in both species. The combined removal by hunters and wolf predation did not exceed the recruitment of both ungulate populations. We can therefore argue that a top‐down force is unlikely to contrast the population growth of the two ungulate species in Central Italy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many wildlife populations are experiencing a variety of environmental pressures due to the direct and indirect consequences of a changing climate. In the northeast, USA, moose Alces alces are declining in large part because of the increasing parasitism by winter tick Dermacentor albipictus, facilitated by high host density and optimal environmental conditions. To test this hypothesis, and better understand the influence of this interaction on the stability of the regional population, we constructed a population viability model using data collected through comprehensive survival and productivity studies in 2002--2005 and 2014--2018 in northern New Hampshire. Years of heavy tick infestation (epizootics) saw a marked reduction in calf survival (< 50%), adult calving (< 60%), twinning rate (< 5%) and complete loss of yearling productivity. We conducted population viability analysis using VORTEX ver. 10.2 to model this moose population for 40 years using mean demographics from both time periods, including environmental variation measured in the field during winter tick epizootic (2002, 2014, 2015, 2016) and non-epizootic (2003, 2004, 2005, 2017) years. This exercise highlights the influence of winter tick infestation on the trajectory of the population with the potential for rapid population growth or decline depending on the frequency of epizootics. We suggest a shift in moose management strategy focused on lowering moose density, assuming continued influence of climate change on the host--parasite relationship. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In human populations, women consistently outlive men, which suggests profound biological foundations for sex differences in survival. Quantifying whether such sex differences are also pervasive in wild mammals is a crucial challenge in both evolutionary biology and biogerontology. Here, we compile demographic data from 134 mammal populations, encompassing 101 species, to show that the female's median lifespan is on average 18.6% longer than that of conspecific males, whereas in humans the female advantage is on average 7.8%. On the contrary, we do not find any consistent sex differences in aging rates. In addition, sex differences in median adult lifespan and aging rates are both highly variable across species. Our analyses suggest that the magnitude of sex differences in mammalian mortality patterns is likely shaped by local environmental conditions in interaction with the sex-specific costs of sexual selection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Deliberate self-poisoning is important cause of deaths in younger population. The objectives of this study were to determine the distribution of deliberate self-poisoning by 12 socio-demographic factors, precipitating events, type of substance and mortality in population of Hazara Division, Pakistan. Materials & Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted in the Department of Medicine, Ayub Medical College, Abbottabad, Pakistan from October 9, 2017 to December 28, 2018. 102 deliberate self-poisoning patients were selected consecutively from population at risk. Variables were 12 socio-demographic factors, precipitating events, type of substance and mortality. All variables being categorical were described by count and percentage for sample and by confidence intervals for proportion for population at 95% confidence level. RESULTS: Deliberate self-poisoning cases (n=102) were higher in women 80.39%, in age group 18-25 years 54.90%, similar in urban 49.02% and rural 50.98%, higher in non-Pathan 74.51%, in married 57.84%, in joint family 79.41%, in up to matric education 85.29% and in housewives 52.94%, 4.90% with previous history of self-harm, 1.96% with family history of self-harm and higher in lower socioeconomic group 81.37%. The most common precipitating event was interpersonal difficulties with spouse, family members or friends 56.86%, while the most common type of substance was organophosphate 62.75%. Mortality was 3.92%. Conclusion: Deliberate self-poisoning was more prevalent in women, younger age group, married, joint family, educated up to matric, housewives and lower socioeconomic status. Family conflict was most common precipitating factor. Organophosphate was most common type of substance and mortality was high 3.92%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Because demographic realism complicates analysis, mathematical modelers either ignore demography or make simplifying assumptions (e.g., births and deaths equal). But human populations differ demographically, perhaps most notably in their mortality schedules. We developed an age-stratified population model with births, deaths, aging and mixing between age groups. The model includes types I and II mortality as special cases. We used the gradient approach (Feng et al., 2015, 2017) to explore the impact of mortality patterns on optimal strategies for mitigating vaccine-preventable diseases such as measles and rubella, which the international community has targeted for eradication. Identification of optimal vaccine allocations to reduce the effective reproduction number R v under various scenarios is presented. Numerical simulations of the model with various types of mortality are carried out to ascertain the long-term effects of vaccination on disease incidence. We conclude that both optimal vaccination strategies and long-term effects of vaccination may depend on demographic assumptions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Malaria remains a primary parasitic disease in the tropical world, generating high morbidity and mortality in human populations. Recently, community surveys showed a high proportion of asymptomatic cases, which are characterized by a low parasitemia and a lack of malaria symptoms. Until now, the asymptomatic population is not treated for malaria and thus remains infective for a long time. In this paper, we introduce a four-dimensional mathematical model to study the influence of asymptomatic people on malaria transmission in low-transmission areas, specifically using data from Brazil. The equilibrium points of the system are calculated, and their stability is analyzed. Via numerical simulations, more in-depth analyzes of the space of some crucial parameters on the asymptomatic population are done, such as the per capita recovery rates of symptomatic and asymptomatic people, the ratio of the density of mosquitoes to that of humans, the mortality rate of mosquitoes and the probability of undergoing asymptomatic infection upon an infectious mosquito bite. Our results indicate that the disease-free equilibrium is inside the stability region if asymptomatic people are treated and/or the ratio of the density of mosquitoes to that of humans is decreased and/or the mortality rate of mosquitoes is increased. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hyperparathyroidism (HPT), including normocalcaemic, vitamin D sufficient (Serum (S)-25(OH)D ≥ 50 nmol/L) hyperparathyroidism (nHPT), has increasingly been diagnosed in the last few decades due to the more common use of the serum parathyroid hormone (S-PTH) assay. We investigated if men with HPT had higher morbidity and mortality than men without HPT during 21 years' follow-up.A random population sample of 750 men, all 50 years of age, was examined in 1993. Endpoints were retrieved 21 years later at 71 years of age.Albumin-corrected serum (S) calcium, S-25-hydroxyvitamin D and S-PTH were assessed along with data on cardiovascular risk factors and medication. Outcome data on fractures, stroke, myocardial infarction, cancer and death were retrieved in 2014; 21 years after primary assessment. The prevalence of HPT at 50 years of age was 9.3%; nHPT 2.8%, primary HPT 0.4%, secondary HPT 0.4%, and HPT with vitamin D insufficiency 6%. Fracture rate, myocardial infarction, stroke, cancer and death occurred similarly in men with or without HPT, as well as in men with nHPT as compared with men without calcium/PTH aberrations during 21 years' follow-up. S-PTH was evenly distributed in the univariable analyses for each outcome. Cox regression analyses showed no increase in serious morbidity or in mortality in men with HPT, irrespective of cause, compared with men with normal S-PTH over a 21-year period. None had HPT at a S-25(OH)D level of 100 nmol/L. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To investigate the characteristics of hip fractures in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Methods: Between 2012 and 2015, 789 hip fractures were treated at our hospital. Patients with RA were checked and their characteristics were compared with data recorded 10 years before, and with the general population. Results: There were 11 patients with RA, who were all female, and the mean age was 76 ± 7.0 years. The age at the time of hip fracture was 4 years older than that recorded 10 years before (72 ± 4.5 years, p<.05), but was younger than that of the general population (84 ± 8.0 years, p<.001). The mean prednisolone dose of 2.5 ± 2.6mg/day was lower than that recorded 10 years before (4.8 ± 2.9mg/day, p<.05). The rate of patients treated with anti-osteoporotic medications at fracture (73%) was higher than 10 years before (42%); however, the difference was not significant. The incidence of secondary fracture was not high compared to the general population. No mortality was recorded at 1 year, and no infective complications occurred. Conclusion: The age at the time of hip fracture in RA patients is increasing, but is still younger than that of the general population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this study was to investigate the mean survival time for Chernobyl clean-up workers (liquidators) with diagnosed solid cancer. The cohort of liquidators contained 142 871 males who worked in the Chernobyl exclusion zone from 1986–1987. Individual medical and dosimetry information collected during the follow-up period from 1991 up to 2015 was used in the study. The number of liquidators cases with documented stages of the disease was 7652, the number of overall death cases among those liquidators was 5085 (4351 deaths were due to cancer). Mean survival time for liquidators after the diagnosis of solid cancer (ICD-10: C00-C80.9) and documented tumor stages between 2000 over 2015 was 4.73 years. For tumors of respiratory organs (ICD-10: C30-C39.9), the mean survival time was 2.57 years; for tumors of digestive organs (ICD-10: C15-C26.9), 3.55 years. The mean survival time for liquidators with a documented diagnosis of cancer was continuously increasing despite the cohort aging and the increase of total mortality. The relationship between the mean survival time and tumor stage was studied. The dependence of the mean survival time on the stage of the tumor was investigated. The survival time, when changing from the 1st stage to the 4th stage, decreased seven times (from 8.62 to 1.22 years). The relationship between the mean survival time and radiation dose received by a liquidator was studied. Two dose groups were identified: group 0–100 mGy (average dose: 56.6 mGy) and group 100+ mGy (average dose: 187.9 mGy). Mean survival time was 4.66 and 4.72 years and the difference between the values was insignificant. Studies carried out in the cohort with varying size and age provided actual estimates of the effects of technological factors on health of certain human populations and groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nature provides a good opportunity to understand the dynamics of evolution. The country has a huge coastline, which experiences socio-cultural and natural vulnerability. The aim of the paper has been to describe the pattern of selection intensity among the east and west coastal populations of India. Differential fertility and mortality were collected from 2,099 females (mothers) of the western coasts of India, and secondary data were collected from the eastern coast of India for comparison purposes. Selection potential was computed using Crow's index and Johnston & Kensinger's index. The data involved a total of 7,512 pregnancies during their reproductive lifespan and the successful outcomes (live births) were 7,073. The total index (It) for eastern coast varied from 0.221 to 1.078. For the west coast, it varied from 0.262 to 0.617. Among the eastern coastal population groups, the mortality component of selection is comparatively higher than its fertility component, while it is just the reverse among the western coastal population groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article reports on a study that determined how mortality increases in 2015-2017, relative to 1999-2014, are reflected across states and subpopulations in the U.S. Topics include the use of death records from the Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research tool managed by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, rates of firearm mortality per 100,000 person-years, and the use of generalized additive models to understand within-state trajectories of firearm mortality.

Historically, efforts to assess 'zoonotic risk' have focused mainly on quantifying the potential for cross-species emergence of viruses from animal hosts. However, viruses clearly differ in relative burden, both in terms of morbidity and mortality (virulence) incurred and the capacity for sustained human-to-human transmission. Extending previously published databases, we delineated host and viral traits predictive of human mortality associated with viral spillover, viral capacity to transmit between humans following spillover and the probability of a given virus being zoonotic. We demonstrate that increasing host phylogenetic distance from humans positively correlates with human mortality but negatively correlates with human transmissibility, suggesting that the virulence induced by viruses emerging from hosts at high phylogenetic distance may limit capacity for human transmission. Our key result is that hosts most closely related to humans harbour zoonoses of lower impact in terms of morbidity and mortality, while the most distantly related hosts—in particular, order Chiroptera (bats)—harbour highly virulent zoonoses with a lower capacity for endemic establishment in human hosts. As a whole, our results emphasize the importance of understanding how zoonoses manifest in the human population and also highlight potential risks associated with multi-host transmission chains in spillover. This article is part of the theme issue 'Dynamic and integrative approaches to understanding pathogen spillover'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change has been identified as one of the most important drivers of wildlife population dynamics. The in‐depth knowledge of the complex relationships between climate and population sizes through density dependent demographic processes is important for understanding and predicting population shifts under climate change, which requires integrated population models (IPMs) that unify the analyses of demography and abundance data. In this study we developed an IPM based on Gaussian approximation to dynamic N‐mixture models for large scale population data. We then analyzed four decades (1972–2013) of mallard Anas platyrhynchos breeding population survey, band‐recovery and climate data covering a large spatial extent from North American prairies through boreal habitat to Alaska. We aimed to test the hypothesis that climate change will cause shifts in population dynamics if climatic effects on demographic parameters that have substantial contribution to population growth vary spatially. More specifically, we examined the spatial variation of climatic effects on density dependent population demography, identified the key demographic parameters that are influential to population growth, and forecasted population responses to climate change. Our results revealed that recruitment, which explained more variance of population growth than survival, was sensitive to the temporal variation of precipitation in the southern portion of the study area but not in the north. Survival, by contrast, was insensitive to climatic variation. We then forecasted a decrease in mallard breeding population density in the south and an increase in the northwestern portion of the study area, indicating potential shifts in population dynamics under future climate change. Our results implied that different strategies need to be considered across regions to conserve waterfowl populations in the face of climate change. Our modelling approach can be adapted for other species and thus has wide application to understanding and predicting population dynamics in the presence of global change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]