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Objective: To estimate mortality in HIV-positive patients starting combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) and to discuss different approaches to calculating correction factors to account for loss to follow-up., Methods: A total of 222 096 adult HIV-positive patients who started ART 2009-2014 in clinics participating in the International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS collaboration in 43 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, Asia Pacific, Latin America, and North America were included. To allow for underascertainment of deaths due to loss to follow-up, two correction factors (one for the period 0-6 months on ART and one for later periods) or 168 correction factors (combinations of two sexes, three time periods after ART initiation, four age groups, and seven CD4 groups) based on tracing patients lost in Kenya and data linkages in South Africa were applied. Corrected mortality rates were compared with a worst case scenario assuming all patients lost to follow-up had died., Results: Loss to follow-up differed between regions; rates were lowest in central Africa and highest in east Africa. Compared with using two correction factors (1.64 for the initial ART period and 2.19 for later), applying 168 correction factors (range 1.03-4.75) more often resulted in implausible mortality rates that exceeded the worst case scenario. Corrected mortality rates varied widely, ranging from 0.2 per 100 person-years to 54 per 100 person-years depending on region and covariates., Conclusion: Implausible rates were less common with the simpler approach based on two correction factors. The corrected mortality rates will be useful to international agencies, national programmes, and modellers.

BackgroundThroughout most of sub-Saharan Africa (and, indeed, most resource-limited areas), lack of death registries prohibits linkage of cancer diagnoses and precludes the most expeditious approach to determining cancer survival. Instead, estimation of cancer survival often uses clinical records, which have some mortality data but are replete with patients who are lost to follow-up (LTFU), some of which may be caused by undocumented death. The end result is that accurate estimation of cancer survival is rarely performed. A prominent example of a common cancer in Africa for which survival data are needed but for which frequent LTFU has precluded accurate estimation is Kaposi sarcoma (KS).MethodsUsing electronic records, we identified all newly diagnosed KS among HIV-infected adults at 33 primary care clinics in Kenya, Uganda, Nigeria, and Malawi from 2009 to 2012. We determined those patients who were apparently LTFU, defined as absent from clinic for ≥90 days at database closure and unknown to be dead or transferred. Using standardized protocols which included manual chart review, telephone calls, and physical tracking in the community, we attempted to update vital status amongst patients who were LTFU.ResultsWe identified 1222 patients with KS, of whom 440 were LTFU according to electronic records. Manual chart review revealed that 18 (4.1%) were classified as LFTU due to clerical error, leaving 422 as truly LTFU. Of these 422, we updated vital status in 78%; manual chart review was responsible for updating in 5.7%, telephone calls in 26%, and physical tracking in 46%. Among 378 patients who consented at clinic enrollment to be tracked if they became LTFU and who had sufficient geographic contact/locator information, we updated vital status in 88%. Duration of LTFU was not associated with success of tracking, but tracking success was better in Kenya than the other sites.ConclusionIt is feasible to update vital status in a large fraction of patients with HIV-associated KS in sub-Saharan Africa who have become LTFU from clinical care. This finding likely applies to other cancers as well. Updating vital status amongst lost patients paves the way towards accurate determination of cancer survival.

Objectives: The objective of this study is to assess the outcomes of children, adolescents and young adults with HIV reported as lost to follow‐up, correct mortality estimates for children, adolescents and young adults with HIV for unascertained outcomes in those loss to follow‐up (LTFU) based on tracing and linkage data separately using data from the International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS in Southern Africa. Methods: We included data from two different populations of children, adolescents and young adults with HIV; (1) clinical data from children, adolescents and young adults with HIV aged ≤24 years from Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe; (2) clinical data from children, adolescents and young adults with HIV aged ≤14 years from the Western Cape (WC) in South Africa. Outcomes of patients lost to follow‐up were available from (1) a tracing study and (2) linkage to a health information exchange. For both populations, we compared six methods for correcting mortality estimates for all children, adolescents and young adults with HIV. Results: We found substantial variations of mortality estimates among children, adolescents and young adults with HIV reported as lost to follow‐up versus those retained in care. Ascertained mortality was higher among lost and traceable children, adolescents and young adults with HIV and lower among lost and linkable than those retained in care (mortality: 13.4% [traced] vs. 12.6% [retained‐other Southern Africa countries]; 3.4% [linked] vs. 9.4% [retained‐WC]). A high proportion of lost to follow‐up children, adolescents and young adults with HIV had self‐transferred (21.0% and 47.0%) in the traced and linked samples, respectively. The uncorrected method of non‐informative censoring yielded the lowest mortality estimates among all methods for both tracing (6.0%) and linkage (4.0%) approaches at 2 years from ART start. Among corrected methods using ascertained data, multiple imputation, incorporating ascertained data (MI(asc.)) and inverse probability weighting with logistic weights were most robust for the tracing approach. In contrast, for the linkage approach, MI(asc.) was the most robust. Conclusions: Our findings emphasise that lost to follow‐up is non‐ignorable and both tracing and linkage improved outcome ascertainment: tracing identified substantial mortality in those reported as lost to follow‐up, whereas linkage did not identify out‐of‐facility deaths, but showed that a large proportion of those reported as lost to follow‐up were self‐transfers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BackgroundDelays and failures in initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) among treatment eligible patients may compromise the effectiveness of HIV care in Africa. An accurate understanding, however, of the pace and completeness of ART initiation and mortality during the waiting period is obscured by frequent losses to follow-up.MethodsWe evaluated newly ART-eligible HIV-infected adults from 2007 to 2011 in a prototypical clinic in Mbarara, Uganda. A random sample of patients lost to follow-up was tracked in the community to determine vital status and ART initiation after leaving the original clinic. Outcomes among the tracked patients were incorporated using probability weights, and a competing risks approach was used in analyses.ResultsAmong 2633 ART-eligible patients, 490 were lost to follow-up, of whom a random sample of 132 was tracked and 111 (84.0%) had outcomes ascertained. After incorporating the outcomes among the lost, the cumulative incidence of ART initiation at 30, 90, and 365 days after eligibility was 16.0% [95% confidence interval (CI): 14.2 to 17.7], 64.5% (95% CI: 60.9 to 68.1), and 81.7% (95% CI: 77.7 to 85.6). Death before ART was 7.7% at 1 year. Male sex, higher CD4 count, and no education were associated with delayed ART initiation. Lower CD4 level, malnourishment, and travel time to clinic were associated with mortality.ConclusionsUsing a sampling-based approach to account for losses to follow-up revealed that both the speed and the completeness of ART initiation were suboptimal in a prototypical large clinic in Uganda. Improving the kinetics of ART initiation in Africa is needed to make ART more in real-world populations.

Introduction: The Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) projections of paediatric HIV prevalence and deaths rely on the International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA) consortium for mortality estimates among children living with HIV (CHIV) receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART). Previous estimates, based on data through 2014, may no longer be accurate due to expanded paediatric HIV care and treatment eligibility, and the possibility of unreported deaths in CHIV considered lost to follow‐up (LTFU). We therefore estimated all‐cause mortality and its trends in CHIV (<15 years old) on ART using extended and new IeDEA data. Methods: We analysed (i) IeDEA observational data from CHIV in routine care globally, and (ii) novel data from an IeDEA tracing study that determined outcomes in a sample of CHIV after being LTFU in southern Africa. We included 45,711 CHIV on ART during 2004 to 2017 at 72 programmes in Africa, Asia‐Pacific and Latin America. We used mixed effects Poisson regression to estimate mortality by age, sex, CD4 at ART start, time on ART, region and calendar year. For Africa, in an adjusted analysis that accounts for unreported deaths among those LTFU, we first modified the routine data by simulating mortality outcomes within six months after LTFU, based on a Gompertz survival model fitted to the tracing data (n = 221). Results: Observed mortality rates were 1.8 (95% CI: 1.7 to 1.9) and 9.4 (6.3 to 13.4) deaths per 100 person‐years in the routine and tracing data, respectively. We found strong evidence of higher mortality at shorter ART durations, lower CD4 values, and in infancy. Averaging over covariate patterns, the adjusted mortality rate was 54% higher than the unadjusted rate. In unadjusted analyses, mortality reduced by an average 60% and 73% from 2005 to 2017, within and outside of Africa, respectively. In the adjusted analysis for Africa, this temporal reduction was 42%. Conclusions: Mortality rates among CHIV have decreased substantially over time. However, when accounting for worse outcomes among those LTFU, mortality estimates increased and temporal improvements were slightly reduced, suggesting caution in interpreting analyses based only on programme data. The improved and updated IeDEA estimates on mortality among CHIV on ART support UNAIDS efforts to accurately model global HIV statistics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In sub-Saharan Africa, a large proportion of HIV positive patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART) are lost to follow-up, some of whom are dead. The objective of this study was to validate methods used to correct mortality estimates for loss-to-follow-up using a cohort with complete death ascertainment. Methods: Routinely collected data from HIV patients initiating first line antiretroviral therapy (ART) at the Infectious Diseases Institute (IDI) (Routine Cohort) was used. Three methods to estimate mortality after initiation were: 1) standard Kaplan-Meier estimation (uncorrected method) that uses passively observed data; 2) double-sampling methods by Frangakis and Rubin (F&R) where deaths obtained from patient tracing studies are given a higher weight than those passively ascertained; 3) Nomogram proposed by Egger et al. Corrected mortality estimates in the Routine Cohort, were compared with the estimates from the IDI research observational cohort (Research Cohort), which was used as the “gold-standard”. Results: We included 5,633 patients from the Routine Cohort and 559 from the Research Cohort. Uncorrected mortality estimates (95% confidence interval [1]) in the Routine Cohort at 1, 2 and 3 years were 5.5% (4.9%–6.3%), 6.6% (5.9%–7.5%) and 7.4% (6.5%–8.5%), respectively. The F&R corrected estimates at 1, 2 and 3 years were 11.2% (5.8%–21.2%), 15.8% (9.9%–24.8%) and 18.5% (12.3% –27.2%) respectively. The estimates obtained from the Research Cohort were 15.6% (12.8%–18.9%), 17.5% (14.6%–21.0%) and 19.0% (15.3%–21.9%) at 1, 2 and 3 years respectively. Using the nomogram method in the Routine Cohort, the corrected programme-level mortality estimate in year 1 was 11.9% (8.0%–15.7%). Conclusion: Mortality adjustments provided by the F&R and nomogram methods are adequate and should be employed to correct mortality for loss-to-follow-up in large HIV care centres in Sub-Saharan Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Up to 20% of people initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) in sub-Saharan Africa die during the first year of treatment. Understanding the clinical conditions associated with mortality could potentially lead to effective interventions to prevent these deaths.We examined data from participants aged ≥18 years in the Home-Based AIDS Care project in Tororo, Uganda, to describe mortality over time and to determine clinical conditions associated with death. Survival analysis was used to examine variables associated with mortality at baseline and during follow-up.A total of 112 (9.4%) deaths occurred in 1132 subjects (73% women) during a median of 3.0 years of ART. Mortality was 15.9 per 100 person-years during the first 3 months and declined to 0.3 per 100 person-years beyond 24 months after ART initiation. Tuberculosis (TB) was the most common condition associated with death (21% of deaths), followed by Candida disease (15%). In 43% of deaths, no specific clinical diagnosis was identified. Deaths within 3 months after ART initiation were associated with World Health Organization clinical stage III or IV at baseline, diagnosis of TB at baseline, a diagnosis of a non-TB opportunistic infection in follow-up and a body mass index 17 kg/m2 during follow-up. Mortality after 3 months of ART was associated with CD4 cell counts <200 cells per microliter, a diagnosis of TB or other opportunistic infection, adherence to therapy <95%, and low hemoglobin levels during follow-up.Potentially remediable conditions and preventable infections were associated with mortality while receiving ART in Uganda. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Current estimates of retention among HIV-infected patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Africa consider patients who are lost to follow-up (LTF) as well as those who die shortly after their last clinic visit to be no longer in care and to represent limitations in access to care. Yet many lost patients may have ''silently'' transferred and deaths shortly after the last clinic visit more likely represent limitations in clinical care rather than access to care after initial linkage. Methods: We evaluated HIV-infected adults initiating ART from 1/1/2004 to 9/30/2007 at a clinic in rural Uganda. A representative sample of lost patients was tracked in the community to obtain updated information about care at other ART sites. Updated outcomes were incorporated with probability weights to obtain ''corrected'' estimates of retention for the entire clinic population. We used the competing risks approach to estimate ''connection to care''--the percentage of patients accessing care over time (including those who died while in care). Results: Among 3,628 patients, 829 became lost, 128 were tracked and in 111, updated information was obtained. Of 111, 79 (71%) were alive and 35/48 (73%) of patients interviewed in person were in care and on ART. Patient retention for the clinic population assuming lost patients were not in care was 82.3%, 68.9%, and 60.1% at 1, 2 and 3 years. Incorporating updated care information from the sample of lost patients increased estimates of patient retention to 85.8% to 90.9%, 78.9% to 86.2% and 75.8% to 84.7% at the same time points. Conclusions: Accounting for ''silent transfers'' and early deaths increased estimates of patient retention and connection to care substantially. Deaths soon after the last clinic visit (potentially reflecting limitations in clinical effectiveness) and disconnection from care among patient who were alive each accounted for approximately half of failures of retention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Cardiac complications are the leading cause of death in thalassaemic patients (TM) worldwide. Improved management protocols including new chelators and imaging have reduced cardiac-related deaths but also require more advanced analytical methods to reflect temporal fluctuations in mortality risk. Objectives: To evaluate time patterns of risk of cardiac death in TM patients according to birth cohort, gender and degree of haemosiderosis and to apply new flexible methods of analysis that may allow assessment of trends in risks as affected by innovations in management. Design and methods: Cardiac-free survival and time trend of the risk of cardiac-related death were assessed in 648 transfusion-depended thalassaemic patients (48.3% females) managed in a single unit located in Athens, Greece. Patients were classified according to birth cohort (prior or after 1/1/1975) and according to the severity of haemosiderosis (mild, moderate and severe) as estimated by the mean ferritin levels during the last 5 yr of follow-up. Results: The median time of observation was 27.8 yr and 84 cardiac deaths were recorded. A parametric analysis predicted a non-monotonous time pattern for the cardiac risk with an initial increasing phase until the fourth decade of life followed by a drop off in deaths. Women have 23% longer life expectancy than men ( P = 0.010) while patients born after 1975 die of heart complications at an older age compared to those born prior to 1975 (time ratio = 1.34, P = 0.003). Patients with mild and moderate haemosiderosis lived 89% ( P < 0.001) and 43% ( P < 0.001) longer, respectively, compared with patients with severe haemosiderosis. Conclusions: These results on risk of death in thalassaemia, accord with expectations. This type of analysis will be useful in the future when the expected impact of cardiac MRI with appropriate tailoring of chelation therapy using all current and future options will modify the pattern of risk of cardiac death observed to date. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pancreatic fistula continues to be a common complication following PD. This study seeks to identify clinical factors which may predict pancreatic fistula (PF) and evaluate the effect of PF on outcomes following pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD).We performed a retrospective analysis of a clinical database at an academic tertiary care hospital with a high volume of pancreatic surgery. Five hundred ten consecutive patients underwent PD, and PF occurred in 46 patients (9%). Perioperative mortality of patients with PF was 0%. Forty-five of 46 PF (98%) closed without reoperation with a mean time to closure of 34 days. Patients who developed PF showed a higher incidence of wound infection, intra-abdominal abscess, need for reoperation, and hospital length of stay. Multivariate analysis demonstrated an invaginated pancreatic anastomosis and closed suction intraperitoneal drainage were associated with PF whereas a diagnosis of chronic pancreatitis and endoscopic stenting conferred protection. Development of PF following PD in this series was predicted by gender, preoperative stenting, pancreatic anastomotic technique, and pancreas pathology. Outcomes in patients with PF are remarkable for a higher rate of septic complications, longer hospital stays, but in this study, no increased mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Monitoring and evaluation (M&E) of HIV care and treatment programs is impacted by losses to follow-up (LTFU) in the patient population. The severity of this effect is undeniable but its extent unknown. Tracing all lost patients addresses this but census methods are not feasible in programs involving rapid scale-up of HIV treatment in the developing world. Sampling-based approaches and statistical adjustment are the only scaleable methods permitting accurate estimation of M&E indices. Methodology/Principal Findings: In a large antiretroviral therapy (ART) program in western Kenya, we assessed the impact of LTFU on estimating patient mortality among 8,977 adult clients of whom, 3,624 were LTFU. Overall, dropouts were more likely male (36.8% versus 33.7%; p = 0.003), and younger than non-dropouts (35.3 versus 35.7 years old; p = 0.020), with lower median CD4 count at enrollment (160 versus 189 cells/ml; p,0.001) and WHO stage 3-4 disease (47.5% versus 41.1%; p,0.001). Urban clinic clients were 75.0% of non-dropouts but 70.3% of dropouts (p,0.001). Of the 3,624 dropouts, 1,143 were sought and 621 had their vital status ascertained. Statistical techniques were used to adjust mortality estimates based on information obtained from located LTFU patients. Observed mortality estimates one year after enrollment were 1.7% (95% CI 1.3%-2.0%), revised to 2.8% (2.3%-3.1%) when deaths discovered through outreach were added and adjusted to 9.2% (7.8%-10.6%) and 9.9% (8.4%-11.5%) through statistical modeling depending on the method used. The estimates 12 months after ART initiation were 1.7% (1.3%-2.2%), 3.4% (2.9%-4.0%), 10.5% (8.7%-12.3%) and 10.7% (8.9%-12.6%) respectively. Conclusions/Significance Abstract: Assessment of the impact of LTFU is critical in program M&E as estimated mortality based on passive monitoring may underestimate true mortality by up to 80%. This bias can be ameliorated by tracing a sample of dropouts and statistically adjust the mortality estimates to properly evaluate and guide large HIV care and treatment programs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Supplemental Digital Content is Available in the Text. Background: Antiretroviral therapy program mortality maybe underestimated if deceased patients are misclassified as lost. Methods: We used two-stage inverse probability weighting to account for probability of being: sampled for tracing and found by the tracer. Results: Among 680 children and youth aged <25 years on antiretroviral therapy who were lost and traced in Southern Africa between October 2017 and November 2019, estimated mortality was high at 9.1% (62/680). After adjusting for measured covariates and within-site clustering, mortality remained lower for young adults aged 20–24 years compared with infants aged <2 years [adjusted hazard ratio: 0.40 (95% confidence interval: 0.31 to 0.51)]. Conclusions: Our study confirms high unreported mortality in children and youth who are lost and the need for tracing to assess vital status among those who are lost to accurately report on program mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We assessed mortality associated with immunologic and virologic patterns of response at 6 months of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in HIV-infected individuals from resource-limited countries in Africa and South America.Patients who initiated HAART between 1996 and 2007, aged 16 years or older, and had at least 1 measurement (HIV-1 RNA plasma viral load or CD4 cell count) at 6 months of therapy (3-9 month window) were included. Therapy response was categorized as complete, discordant (virologic only or immunologic only), and absent. Associations between 6-month response to therapy and all-cause mortality were assessed by Cox proportional hazards regression. Robust standard errors were calculated to account for intrasite correlation.A total of 7160 patients, corresponding to 15,107 person-years, were analyzed. In multivariable analysis adjusted for age at HAART initiation, baseline clinical stage and CD4 cell count, year of HAART initiation, clinic, occurrence of an AIDS-defining condition within the first 6 months of treatment, and discordant and absent responses were associated with increased risk of death.Similar to reports from high-income countries, discordant immunologic and virologic responses were associated with intermediate risk of death compared with complete and no response in this large cohort of HIV-1 patients from resource-limited countries. Our results support a recommendation for wider availability of plasma viral load testing to monitor antiretroviral therapy in these settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Topotecan has demonstrable activity in high-risk MDS and CMMoL. However, the significant toxicity of topotecan administered at a dose of 2 mg/m2 i.v. daily for 5 days as a continuous infusion limits its use in older patients. Therefore, we studied topotecan 1.5 mg/m2 per day i.v. over 2 h for three consecutive days in 20 patients with high-risk MDS (12 RAEB; 4 RAEB-T; 4 CMMoL). Cycles were given every 4–6 weeks. Fifteen patients were evaluable for response. Only one patient achieved a durable complete remission (CR). There were three deaths within the first cycle of therapy. Severe myelosupression was the most common toxicity. Grades 3–4 infections were documented in four patients. We conclude that topotecan administered at this dose and schedule has no clinically significant activity. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]