Search

Objectives: There is a shift in the smoking population from daily smokers to light or occasional smokers. The knowledge about possible adverse health effects of this new smoking pattern is limited. We investigated smoking habits with focus on occasional smoking in relation to total mortality in a follow-up study of a Norwegian general population., Setting: A population study in Tromsø, Norway., Methods: We collected smoking habits and relevant risk factors in 4020 women and 3033 men aged 30-89 years in the Tromsø Study in 2001. The subjects were followed up regarding total mortality through June 2015., Results: Among the participants, there were 7% occasional smokers. Occasional smokers were younger, more educated and used alcohol more frequently than other participants. A total of 766 women and 882 men died during the follow-up. After the adjustment for confounders, we found that occasional smoking significantly increased mortality by 38% (95% CI 8% to 76%) compared with never smokers. We report a dose-response relationship in the hazards of smoking (daily, occasional, former and never smoking)., Conclusions: Occasional smoking is not a safe smoking alternative. There is a need for information to the general public and health workers about the health hazards of occasional smoking. More work should be done to motivate this often well-educated group to quit smoking completely., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.)

Importance: The prevalence of cardiometabolic multimorbidity is increasing., Objective: To estimate reductions in life expectancy associated with cardiometabolic multimorbidity., Design, Setting, and Participants: Age- and sex-adjusted mortality rates and hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated using individual participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (689,300 participants; 91 cohorts; years of baseline surveys: 1960-2007; latest mortality follow-up: April 2013; 128,843 deaths). The HRs from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration were compared with those from the UK Biobank (499,808 participants; years of baseline surveys: 2006-2010; latest mortality follow-up: November 2013; 7995 deaths). Cumulative survival was estimated by applying calculated age-specific HRs for mortality to contemporary US age-specific death rates., Exposures: A history of 2 or more of the following: diabetes mellitus, stroke, myocardial infarction (MI)., Main Outcomes and Measures: All-cause mortality and estimated reductions in life expectancy., Results: In participants in the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration without a history of diabetes, stroke, or MI at baseline (reference group), the all-cause mortality rate adjusted to the age of 60 years was 6.8 per 1000 person-years. Mortality rates per 1000 person-years were 15.6 in participants with a history of diabetes, 16.1 in those with stroke, 16.8 in those with MI, 32.0 in those with both diabetes and MI, 32.5 in those with both diabetes and stroke, 32.8 in those with both stroke and MI, and 59.5 in those with diabetes, stroke, and MI. Compared with the reference group, the HRs for all-cause mortality were 1.9 (95% CI, 1.8-2.0) in participants with a history of diabetes, 2.1 (95% CI, 2.0-2.2) in those with stroke, 2.0 (95% CI, 1.9-2.2) in those with MI, 3.7 (95% CI, 3.3-4.1) in those with both diabetes and MI, 3.8 (95% CI, 3.5-4.2) in those with both diabetes and stroke, 3.5 (95% CI, 3.1-4.0) in those with both stroke and MI, and 6.9 (95% CI, 5.7-8.3) in those with diabetes, stroke, and MI. The HRs from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration were similar to those from the more recently recruited UK Biobank. The HRs were little changed after further adjustment for markers of established intermediate pathways (eg, levels of lipids and blood pressure) and lifestyle factors (eg, smoking, diet). At the age of 60 years, a history of any 2 of these conditions was associated with 12 years of reduced life expectancy and a history of all 3 of these conditions was associated with 15 years of reduced life expectancy., Conclusions and Relevance: Mortality associated with a history of diabetes, stroke, or MI was similar for each condition. Because any combination of these conditions was associated with multiplicative mortality risk, life expectancy was substantially lower in people with multimorbidity.

The purpose was to investigate the association between serum osteoprotegerin (OPG) and risk of incident cancer and cancer mortality in a general population. OPG was measured in serum collected from 6,279 subjects without prior cancer recruited from a general population. Incident cancer and cancer-related mortality were registered from inclusion in 1994-95 until end of follow-up December 31, 2008. Cox regression models were used to estimate crude and adjusted (for age, sex and other confounders) hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals (HR 95% CI). There were 948 incident cancers and 387 deaths in the cohort during 71,902 person-years of follow up (median 13.5 years). Subjects with serum OPG in the upper tertile had 79% higher risk of incident gastrointestinal cancer than those in the lowest tertile (HR 1.79, 95% CI 1.19-2.67). In women <60 years, serum OPG (per SD 0.81 ng/ml) was associated with reduced risk of incident cancer (all cancers merged; 0.73; 0.57-0.94) and breast cancer (0.51; 0.31-0.83) after adjustment. Subjects in the upper tertile of OPG had higher risk of cancer-related mortality (1.63; 1.16-2.28), particularly mortality from cancer in the gastrointestinal system (2.28; 1.21-4.28) compared to those in the lowest OPG tertile. No significant association was detected between OPG and risk of death from cancer in the respiratory system or death from prostatic cancer. Our findings from a large population based cohort study suggest that serum OPG was associated with increased risk of incident gastrointestinal cancer, inversely associated with breast cancer, and predicts cancer-related mortality.

Context: Recently, concern has been raised about the safety of folic acid, particularly in relation to cancer risk., Objective: To evaluate effects of treatment with B vitamins on cancer outcomes and all-cause mortality in 2 randomized controlled trials., Design, Setting, and Participants: Combined analysis and extended follow-up of participants from 2 randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trials (Norwegian Vitamin Trial and Western Norway B Vitamin Intervention Trial). A total of 6837 patients with ischemic heart disease were treated with B vitamins or placebo between 1998 and 2005, and were followed up through December 31, 2007., Interventions: Oral treatment with folic acid (0.8 mg/d) plus vitamin B(12) (0.4 mg/d) and vitamin B(6) (40 mg/d) (n = 1708); folic acid (0.8 mg/d) plus vitamin B(12) (0.4 mg/d) (n = 1703); vitamin B(6) alone (40 mg/d) (n = 1705); or placebo (n = 1721)., Main Outcome Measures: Cancer incidence, cancer mortality, and all-cause mortality., Results: During study treatment, median serum folate concentration increased more than 6-fold among participants given folic acid. After a median 39 months of treatment and an additional 38 months of posttrial observational follow-up, 341 participants (10.0%) who received folic acid plus vitamin B(12) vs 288 participants (8.4%) who did not receive such treatment were diagnosed with cancer (hazard ratio [HR], 1.21; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.03-1.41; P = .02). A total of 136 (4.0%) who received folic acid plus vitamin B(12) vs 100 (2.9%) who did not receive such treatment died from cancer (HR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.07-1.79; P = .01). A total of 548 patients (16.1%) who received folic acid plus vitamin B(12) vs 473 (13.8%) who did not receive such treatment died from any cause (HR, 1.18; 95% CI, 1.04-1.33; P = .01). Results were mainly driven by increased lung cancer incidence in participants who received folic acid plus vitamin B(12). Vitamin B(6) treatment was not associated with any significant effects., Conclusion: Treatment with folic acid plus vitamin B(12) was associated with increased cancer outcomes and all-cause mortality in patients with ischemic heart disease in Norway, where there is no folic acid fortification of foods., Trial Registration: clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00671346.

Aim: To test the association of alcohol consumption with total and cause‐specific mortality risk. Design Prospective observational multi‐centre population‐based study. Setting: Sixteen cohorts (15 from Europe) in the MOnica Risk, Genetics, Archiving and Monograph (MORGAM) Project. Participants: A total of 142 960 individuals (mean age 50 ± 13 years, 53.9% men). Measurements Average alcohol intake by food frequency questionnaire, total and cause‐specific mortality. Findings In comparison with life‐time abstainers, consumption of alcohol less than 10 g/day was associated with an average 11% [95% confidence interval (CI) = 7–14%] reduction in the risk of total mortality, while intake > 20 g/day was associated with a 13% (95% CI = 7–20%) increase in the risk of total mortality. Comparable findings were observed for cardiovascular (CV) deaths. With regard to cancer, drinking up to 10 g/day was not associated with either mortality risk reduction or increase, while alcohol intake > 20 g/day was associated with a 22% (95% CI = 10–35%) increased risk of mortality. The association of alcohol with fatal outcomes was similar in men and women, differed somewhat between countries and was more apparent in individuals preferring wine, suggesting that benefits may not be due to ethanol but other ingredients. Mediation analysis showed that high‐density lipoprotein cholesterol explained 2.9 and 18.7% of the association between low alcohol intake and total as well as CV mortality, respectively. Conclusions: In comparison with life‐time abstainers, consuming less than one drink per day (nadir at 5 g/day) was associated with a reduced risk of total, cardiovascular and other causes mortality, except cancer. Intake of more than two drinks per day was associated with an increased risk of total, cardiovascular and especially cancer mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Biomarkers may contribute to improved cardiovascular risk estimation. Glycated hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) is used to monitor the quality of diabetes treatment. Its strength of association with cardiovascular outcomes in the general population remains uncertain. This study aims to assess the association of HbA1c with cardiovascular outcomes in the general population. Methods: Data from six prospective population-based cohort studies across Europe comprising 36,180 participants were analyzed. HbA1c was evaluated in conjunction with classical cardiovascular risk factors (CVRFs) for association with cardiovascular mortality, cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence, and overall mortality in subjects without diabetes (N = 32,496) and with diabetes (N = 3684). Results: Kaplan–Meier curves showed higher event rates with increasing HbA1c levels (log-rank-test: p < 0.001). Cox regression analysis revealed significant associations between HbA1c (in mmol/mol) in the total study population and the examined outcomes. Thus, a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.16 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.02–1.31, p = 0.02) for cardiovascular mortality, 1.13 (95% CI 1.03–1.24, p = 0.01) for CVD incidence, and 1.09 (95% CI 1.02–1.17, p = 0.01) for overall mortality was observed per 10 mmol/mol increase in HbA1c. The association with CVD incidence and overall mortality was also observed in study participants without diabetes with increased HbA1c levels (HR 1.12; 95% CI 1.01–1.25, p = 0.04) and HR 1.10; 95% CI 1.01–1.20, p = 0.02) respectively. HbA1c cut-off values of 39.9 mmol/mol (5.8%), 36.6 mmol/mol (5.5%), and 38.8 mmol/mol (5.7%) for cardiovascular mortality, CVD incidence, and overall mortality, showed also an increased risk. Conclusions: HbA1c is independently associated with cardiovascular mortality, overall mortality and cardiovascular disease in the general European population. A mostly monotonically increasing relationship was observed between HbA1c levels and outcomes. Elevated HbA1c levels were associated with cardiovascular disease incidence and overall mortality in participants without diabetes underlining the importance of HbA1c levels in the overall population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rapid increase of coronary heart disease mortality in Northern Norway during 1951-1970 was why the newly established University of Tromsø decided to start a study to identify major operating cardiovascular risk factors. The first Tromsø survey in 1974 suggested that the relatively high cardiovascular mortality was associated with elevated cholesterol levels and high prevalence of smoking, while highdensity- lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) was identified as a preventive factor. After 1974, six more surveys including both genders (aged 20-89 years) were undertaken. The second survey (1979) revealed the cholesterol increasing effect of coffee. Echocardiographic examinations, ECG, and ultrasound of carotid arteries were introduced in later surveys, and intervention studies were established. Repeated carotid measurements showed that inflammation was involved in novel plaque formation, while HDL-C was protective. Moderate physical activity protected against atrial fibrillation but hard exercise increased the risk. Obesity, hypertension and smoking increased the risk of aortic stenosis, and diastolic dysfunction predicted development of atrial fibrillation. Dilated left atria predicted stroke, especially for individuals without known atrial fibrillation. Total cholesterol, blood pressure and smoking declined after 1974, corresponding to the subsequent decline in coronary heart disease mortality. Reduced incidence accounted for 40% of the mortality decline, while a substantial reduction in case fatality explained the remaining 60%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Glomerular filtration rate <60 mL/min/1.73m2 is associated with increased cardiovascular risk. Cystatin C is believed to be a better tool than creatinine for detection of mild renal dysfunction (>60 mL/min/1.73m2) and possibly a more sensitive marker for cardiovascular risk and all-cause mortality. We examined the association of cystatin C with cardiovascular morbidity and all-cause mortality in a prospective population-based study. Methods Cystatin C was measured in 2852 men and 3153 women in the Tromsø Study 1994/95. Gender-specific associations during 12 years of follow-up for all-cause mortality and 9.5 years for myocardial infarction (MI) and ischaemic stroke were assessed (Cox proportional hazard ratios, HRs). Results During follow-up, 591 MIs, 293 ischaemic strokes and 1262 deaths occurred. In women, HR for all-cause mortality was increased in the upper cystatin C quartile (≥0.93 mg/L) compared with the lowest quartile (≤0.73 mg/L); 1.38, 95% confidence interval 1.04–1.84. A significant interaction with gender was observed. One SD (0.17 mg/L) increase in cystatin C was associated with 9% higher risk of death in women, also when persons with a cancer history were excluded. Crude HRs for MI and ischaemic stroke were increased in both genders, but the associations did not persist after multivariable adjustments. No independent associations with end points were observed in non-gender-specific analyses. Conclusions Cystatin C was not independently associated with fatal and non-fatal MI or ischaemic stroke in the general population. However, cystatin C was a risk factor for all-cause mortality in women. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The aim of this study was to determine if increased mortality associated with low levels of serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) reflects a causal relationship by using a Mendelian randomisation (MR) approach with genetic variants in the vitamin D synthesis pathway. Individual participant data from three European cohorts were harmonized with standardization of 25(OH)D according to the Vitamin D Standardization Program. Most relevant single nucleotide polymorphisms of the genes CYP2R1 (rs12794714, rs10741657) and DHCR7/NADSYN1 (rs12785878, rs11234027), were combined in two allelic scores. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used with the ratio estimator and the delta method for calculating the hazards ratio (HR) and standard error of genetically determined 25(OH)D effect on all-cause mortality. We included 10,501 participants (50.1% females, 67.1±10.1 years) of whom 4003 died during a median follow-up of 10.4 years. The observed adjusted HR for all-cause mortality per decrease in 25(OH)D by 20 nmol/L was 1.20 (95% CI: 1.15–1.25). The HR per 20 nmol/L decrease in genetically determined 25(OH)D was 1.32 (95% CI: 0.80–2.24) and 1.35 (95% CI of 0.81 to 2.37) based on the two scores. In conclusion, the results of this MR study in a combined sample from three European cohort studies provide further support for a causal relationship between vitamin D deficiency and increased all-cause mortality. However, as the current study, even with ~10,000 participants, was underpowered for the study of the effect of the allele score on mortality, larger studies on genetics and mortality are needed to improve the precision. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Low-risk limits recommended for alcohol consumption vary substantially across different national guidelines. To define thresholds associated with lowest risk for all-cause mortality and cardiovascular disease, we studied individual-participant data from 599 912 current drinkers without previous cardiovascular disease.Methods: We did a combined analysis of individual-participant data from three large-scale data sources in 19 high-income countries (the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration, EPIC-CVD, and the UK Biobank). We characterised dose-response associations and calculated hazard ratios (HRs) per 100 g per week of alcohol (12·5 units per week) across 83 prospective studies, adjusting at least for study or centre, age, sex, smoking, and diabetes. To be eligible for the analysis, participants had to have information recorded about their alcohol consumption amount and status (ie, non-drinker vs current drinker), plus age, sex, history of diabetes and smoking status, at least 1 year of follow-up after baseline, and no baseline history of cardiovascular disease. The main analyses focused on current drinkers, whose baseline alcohol consumption was categorised into eight predefined groups according to the amount in grams consumed per week. We assessed alcohol consumption in relation to all-cause mortality, total cardiovascular disease, and several cardiovascular disease subtypes. We corrected HRs for estimated long-term variability in alcohol consumption using 152 640 serial alcohol assessments obtained some years apart (median interval 5·6 years [5th-95th percentile 1·04-13·5]) from 71 011 participants from 37 studies.Findings: In the 599 912 current drinkers included in the analysis, we recorded 40 310 deaths and 39 018 incident cardiovascular disease events during 5·4 million person-years of follow-up. For all-cause mortality, we recorded a positive and curvilinear association with the level of alcohol consumption, with the minimum mortality risk around or below 100 g per week. Alcohol consumption was roughly linearly associated with a higher risk of stroke (HR per 100 g per week higher consumption 1·14, 95% CI, 1·10-1·17), coronary disease excluding myocardial infarction (1·06, 1·00-1·11), heart failure (1·09, 1·03-1·15), fatal hypertensive disease (1·24, 1·15-1·33); and fatal aortic aneurysm (1·15, 1·03-1·28). By contrast, increased alcohol consumption was log-linearly associated with a lower risk of myocardial infarction (HR 0·94, 0·91-0·97). In comparison to those who reported drinking >0-≤100 g per week, those who reported drinking >100-≤200 g per week, >200-≤350 g per week, or >350 g per week had lower life expectancy at age 40 years of approximately 6 months, 1-2 years, or 4-5 years, respectively.Interpretation: In current drinkers of alcohol in high-income countries, the threshold for lowest risk of all-cause mortality was about 100 g/week. For cardiovascular disease subtypes other than myocardial infarction, there were no clear risk thresholds below which lower alcohol consumption stopped being associated with lower disease risk. These data support limits for alcohol consumption that are lower than those recommended in most current guidelines.Funding: UK Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, National Institute for Health Research, European Union Framework 7, and European Research Council. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common cardiac disease in aging populations with high comorbidity and mortality. Sex differences in AF epidemiology are insufficiently understood.Methods: In N=79 793 individuals without AF diagnosis at baseline (median age, 49.6 years; age range, 24.1-97.6 years; 51.7% women) from 4 community-based European studies (FINRISK, DanMONICA, Moli-sani Northern Sweden) of the BiomarCaRE consortium (Biomarker for Cardiovascular Risk Assessment in Europe), we examined AF incidence, its association with mortality, common risk factors, biomarkers, and prevalent cardiovascular disease, and their attributable risk by sex. Median follow-up time was 12.6 (to a maximum of 28.2) years.Results: Fewer AF cases were observed in women (N=1796; 4.4%), than in men (N=2465; 6.4%). Cardiovascular risk factor distribution and lipid profile at baseline were less beneficial in men than in women, and cardiovascular disease was more prevalent in men. Cumulative incidence increased markedly after the age of 50 years in men and after 60 years in women. The lifetime risk was similar (>30%) for both sexes. Subjects with incident AF had a 3.5-fold risk of death in comparison with those without AF. Multivariable-adjusted models showed sex differences for the association of body mass index and AF (hazard ratio per standard deviation increase, 1.18; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.12-1.23 in women versus 1.31; 95% CI 1.25-1.38 in men; interaction P value of 0.001). Total cholesterol was inversely associated with incident AF with a greater risk reduction in women (hazard ratio per SD, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.81-0.90 versus 0.92; 95% CI, 0.88-0.97 in men; interaction P value of 0.023). No sex differences were seen for C-reactive protein and N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide. The population-attributable risk of all risk factors combined was 41.9% in women and 46.0% in men. About 20% of the risk was observed for body mass index.Conclusions: Lifetime risk of AF was high, and AF was strongly associated with increased mortality both in women and men. Body mass index explained the largest proportion of AF risk. Observed sex differences in the association of body mass index and total cholesterol with AF need to be evaluated for underlying pathophysiology and relevance to sex-specific prevention strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Few studies have used individual person data to study whether contemporary trends in the incidence of coronary heart disease are associated with changes in modifiable coronary risk factors.Methods and Results: We identified 29 582 healthy men and women ≥25 years of age who participated in 3 population surveys conducted between 1994 and 2008 in Tromsø, Norway. Age- and sex-adjusted incidence rates were calculated for coronary heart disease overall, out-of-hospital sudden death, and hospitalized ST-segment-elevation and non-ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction. We measured coronary risk factors at each survey and estimated the relationship between changes in risk factors and changes in incidence trends. A total of 1845 participants had an incident acute coronary heart disease event during 375 064 person-years of follow-up from 1994 to 2010. The age- and sex-adjusted incidence of total coronary heart disease decreased by 3% (95% confidence interval, 2.0-4.0; P<0.001) each year. This decline was driven by decreases in out-of-hospital sudden death and hospitalized ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction. Changes in coronary risk factors accounted for 66% (95% confidence interval, 48-97; P<0.001) of the decline in total coronary heart disease. Favorable changes in cholesterol contributed 32% to the decline, whereas blood pressure, smoking, and physical activity each contributed 14%, 13%, and 9%, respectively.Conclusions: We observed a substantial decline in the incidence of coronary heart disease that was driven by reductions in out-of-hospital sudden death and hospitalized ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction. Changes in modifiable coronary risk factors accounted for 66% of the decline in coronary heart disease events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]