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Background Variations in the age patterns and magnitudes of excess deaths, as well as differences in population sizes and age structures, make cross-national comparisons of the cumulative mortality impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic challenging. Life expectancy is a widely used indicator that provides a clear and cross-nationally comparable picture of the population-level impacts of the pandemic on mortality. Methods Life tables by sex were calculated for 29 countries, including most European countries, Chile and the USA, for 2015–2020. Life expectancy at birth and at age 60 years for 2020 were contextualized against recent trends between 2015 and 2019. Using decomposition techniques, we examined which specific age groups contributed to reductions in life expectancy in 2020 and to what extent reductions were attributable to official COVID-19 deaths. Results Life expectancy at birth declined from 2019 to 2020 in 27 out of 29 countries. Males in the USA and Lithuania experienced the largest losses in life expectancy at birth during 2020 (2.2 and 1.7 years, respectively), but reductions of more than an entire year were documented in 11 countries for males and 8 among females. Reductions were mostly attributable to increased mortality above age 60 years and to official COVID-19 deaths. Conclusions The COVID-19 pandemic triggered significant mortality increases in 2020 of a magnitude not witnessed since World War II in Western Europe or the breakup of the Soviet Union in Eastern Europe. Females from 15 countries and males from 10 ended up with lower life expectancy at birth in 2020 than in 2015.

Background Estimates of completeness of death registration are crucial to produce estimates of life tables and population projections and to estimate the burden of disease. They are an important step in assessing the quality of data. In the case of subnational data analysis in Brazil, it is important to consider spatial and temporal variation in the quality of mortality data. There are two main sources of data quality evaluation in Brazil, but there are few comparative studies and how they evolve over time. The aim of the paper is to compare and discuss alternative estimates of completeness of death registration, adult mortality (45q15) and life expectancy estimates produced by the National Statistics Office (IBGE), Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), and estimates presented in Queiroz et al. (2017) and Schmertmann and Gonzaga (2018), for 1980 and 2010. Methods We provide a descriptive and comparative analysis of aforementioned estimates from four (4) sources of estimates at subnational level (26 states and one Federal District) in Brazil from two different points in time. Results We found significant differences in estimates that affect both levels and trends of completeness of adult mortality in Brazil and states. IHME and Queiroz et al. (2017) estimates converge by 2010, but there are large differences when compared to estimates from the National Statistics Office (IBGE). Larger differences are observed for less developed states. We have showed that the quality of mortality data in Brazil has improved steadily overtime, but with large regional variations. However, we have observed that IBGE estimates show the lowest levels of completeness for the Northern of the country compared to other estimates. Choice of methods and approaches might lead to very unexpected results. Conclusion We produced a detailed comparative analysis of estimates of completeness of death registration from different sources and discuss the main results and possible explanations for these differences. We have also showed that new improved methods are still needed to study adult mortality in less developed countries and at a subnational level. More comparative studies are important in order to improve quality of estimates in Brazil.

To investigate the adult mortality profile from eight causes of death in 10 Latin American countries (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, and Uruguay) from 2000 to 2016.The cause of death effect in adult mortality was calculated as the hypothetical gain in the average number of years lived in adulthood (15 to 60 years old), in a cause-deleted life table. Mortality information by cause, sex, and age group came from the World Health Organization.Although the adult mortality levels are very different among the 10 countries, the pattern of mortality by cause of death is very similar. All the countries are in the intermediate stages of the epidemiological transition, with chronic degenerative diseases being predominant. Among males, circulatory system diseases and external causes are the most important causes of death in terms of the average number of years lived in adulthood. Among females, the leading causes are circulatory system diseases and neoplasms.Some studies have pointed out that Latin America exhibits severe difficulties in moving through some epidemiological transition phases, given the continuing high mortality from chronic diseases and violent deaths. However, between 2000 and 2016, there was a convergence among the 10 analyzed countries around the theoretical limit in the average number of years lived in adulthood. Countries that include Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Paraguay, and Peru are still further away from this limit, but they have an enormous potential to increase the number of years lived in adulthood in the future.Investigar el perfil de mortalidad en adultos por ocho causas de muerte en diez países latinoamericanos (Argentina, Brasil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, México, Paraguay, Perú y Uruguay) del 2000 al 2016.Se calculó el efecto de la causa de muerte en la mortalidad en adultos como la ganancia hipotética en el número promedio de años vividos en la edad adulta (de 15 a 60 años de edad), mediante una tabla de vida con eliminación de causa. Los datos de mortalidad desglosados por causa, sexo y grupo etario proceden de la Organización Mundial de la Salud.Aunque los niveles de mortalidad en adultos son muy dispares entre los diez países, el patrón de mortalidad por causa de muerte es muy similar. Todos los países se encuentran en las etapas intermedias de la transición epidemiológica, en que las enfermedades degenerativas crónicas son predominantes. En los hombres, las enfermedades del aparato circulatorio y las causas externas son las causas más importantes en lo que respecta al número promedio de años vividos en la edad adulta. En las mujeres, las principales causas son las enfermedades del aparato circulatorio y las neoplasias.Algunos estudios han señalado que América Latina se enfrenta a graves dificultades para superar algunas de las fases de la transición epidemiológica, dada la mortalidad elevada continua por enfermedades crónicas y muertes violentas. Sin embargo, entre los años 2000 y 2016 hubo una convergencia entre los diez países analizados en torno al límite teórico en el número promedio de años vividos en la edad adulta. Algunos países, como Brasil, Colombia, Ecuador, México, Paraguay y Perú, aún se encuentran lejos de ese límite, si bien tienen un gran potencial para aumentar el número de años vividos en la edad adulta en el futuro.Investigar o perfil de mortalidade de adultos por oito causas de morte em 10 países da América Latina (Argentina, Brasil, Chile, Colômbia, Costa Rica, Equador, México, Paraguai, Peru e Uruguai) no período de 2000 a 2016.O efeito das causas de morte sobre a mortalidade de adultos foi calculado como ganho hipotético no número médio de anos vividos na idade adulta (15 a 60 anos), utilizando uma tabela de vida com eliminação de causa. As informações de mortalidade por causa, sexo e faixa etária foram obtidas com a Organização Mundial da Saúde.Embora os níveis de mortalidade em adultos sejam muito diferentes entre os 10 países, o padrão de mortalidade por causa de morte é muito semelhante. Todos os países estão nas etapas intermediárias da transição epidemiológica, com predominância de doenças crônico-degenerativas. Entre os homens, as doenças do sistema circulatório e as causas externas são as causas de morte mais importantes em termos do número médio de anos vividos na idade adulta. Entre as mulheres, as principais causas são as doenças do sistema circulatório e neoplasias.Alguns estudos indicam que a América Latina apresenta sérias dificuldades em passar por algumas fases da transição epidemiológica, dada a manutenção de uma alta mortalidade por doenças crônicas e mortes violentas. No entanto, entre 2000 e 2016, houve uma convergência entre os 10 países analisados em torno do limite teórico do número médio de anos vividos na vida adulta. Países como Brasil, Colômbia, Equador, México, Paraguai e Peru ainda estão mais longe desse limite, mas têm um enorme potencial para aumentar o número de anos vividos na vida adulta no futuro.

This paper aims to estimate mortality and analyze its differentials by sex, age, and groups of beneficiaries of the Brazilian National Institute of Social Security (INSS) in 2015 and make comparisons with official estimates for the general population, assessing the distribution of deaths by age and of survival after 65 years old. The results reinforce the need for more studies on mortality differentials between beneficiary groups and for continuous investment to improve the quality of the data. Population aging, among other aspects, puts pressure on the Brazilian social security system, and there is real concern about its sustainability. Life tables by population subgroups are fundamental as a tool for analyzing the financial and actuarial equilibrium of the system. The results contribute to the debate on the mortality differentials between groups of beneficiaries of the general pension and social security system in Brazil. The death and population data derive from the administrative records of the INSS. We used Gompertz and Van de Maen models and Topals regression to estimate the mortality rates above the age of 65, according to the following beneficiary groups: retirees through age of the General Social Security Regime (Regime Geral de Previdência Social - RGPS) - disaggregated by urban and rural clienteles; retirees through period of contribution; and beneficiaries of welfare support for low income seniors. Among the main results, it was possible to minimize the crossover in the mortality rates of older ages, when the mortality of the less advantaged population becomes lower than the mortality of populations with better social indicators. Cross-checking the results with the official mortality estimates, it was observed that life expectancies for the 65 and 75 year old age groups of the target population of this study are higher than in the general population.

ObjectiveTo determine cause-specific and age-specific contributions to life expectancy changes between 2000 and 2015, separately by state and sex in Brazil, with a focus on homicides.DesignRetrospective cross-sectional demographic analysis of mortality.Setting and populationBrazilian population by age, sex and state from 2000 to 2015.Main outcome measureUsing mortality data from the Brazilian Mortality Information System and population estimates from the National Statistics Office, we used death distribution methods and the linear integral decomposition model to estimate levels and changes in life expectancy. We also examine how multiple causes of death, including those attributable to homicides and amenable/avoidable mortality, contributed to these changes from 2000 to 2015.ResultsBetween 2000 and 2015, life expectancy in Brazil increased from 71.5 to 75.1 years. Despite state-level variation in gains, life expectancy increased in almost all states over this period. However across Brazil, homicide mortality contributed, to varying degrees, to either attenuated or decreased male life expectancy gains. In Alagoas in 2000–2007 and Sergipe in 2007–2015, homicides contributed to a reduction in life expectancy of 1.5 years, offsetting gains achieved through improvements due to medically amenable causes. In the period 2007–2015, male life expectancy could have been improved by more than half a year in 12 of Brazil’s states if homicide mortality had remained at the levels of 2007.ConclusionsHomicide mortality appears to offset life expectancy gains made through recent improvements to mortality amenable to medical services and public health interventions, with considerable subnational heterogeneity in the extent of this phenomenon. Efforts combating the causes of homicides can increase life expectancy beyond what has been achieved in recent decades.

Background: What is the spatial pattern of mortality by cause and sex in Brazil? Even considering the main causes of death, such as neoplasms, cardiovascular diseases, external causes, respiratory diseases, and infectious diseases, there are still important debate regarding the spatial pattern of mortality by causes in Brazil. Evidence shows that there is an overlap in transitional health states, due to the persistence of infectious diseases (e.g., dengue, cholera, malaria, etc.,) in parallel with the increase in chronic degenerative diseases. The main objective of this paper is to analyze the spatio-temporal evolution of three groups of causes of death in Brazil across small areas from 1998 to 2017, by sex.Methods: We use publicly available data from the System Data Mortality Information (SIM-DATASUS) from 1998 to 2017. We focus on this period due to the better quality of information, in addition to all deaths are registered following the Tenth Revision of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10). We estimate standardized mortality rates by sex and cause aggregated into three main groups. We use a ternary color scheme to maximize all the information in a three-dimensional array of compositional data.Results: We find improvements in mortality from chronic degenerative diseases; faster declines are observed in the Southern regions of the country; but the persistence of high levels of mortality due to infectious diseases remained in the northern parts of the country. We also find impressive differences in external causes of deaths between males and females and an increase in mortality from these causes in the interior part of the country.Conclusions: This study provides useful information for policy makers in establishing effective measures for the prevention of deaths and public health planning for deaths from external and non-communicable causes. We observed how the distribution of causes of death varies across regions and how the patterns of mortality also vary by gender.

RESUMO: Objetivo: O objetivo deste artigo é analisar a distribuição espacial da mortalidade feminina por acidente de motocicleta nos municípios brasileiros entre 2005 e 2015, bem como a variação das taxas no mesmo período. Métodos: Estimaram-se as taxas de mortalidade femininas para os anos de 2005, 2010 e 2015 considerando-se a média móvel de três anos ao redor do ano base e padronizadas pelo método direto. Em seguida, utilizou-se o estimador bayesiano empírico para reduzir o efeito da flutuação aleatória. Analisou-se, também, a variação percentual das taxas padronizadas por diferentes portes populacionais (menor que dez mil, menor que 50 mil, maior que 100 mil e maior que um milhão de habitantes). Resultados: As taxas bayesianas mostraram clara ampliação da mortalidade feminina por acidente de motocicleta, especialmente nas regiões Norte, Nordeste e Centro-Oeste. Nos municípios das regiões Sul e Sudeste, principalmente no período entre 2010 e 2015, houve aparente diminuição da mortalidade. A variação percentual das taxas mostrou redução do indicador analisado no período entre 2010 e 2015 para os municípios de maior porte das regiões Sul e Sudeste. Para quase todas as regiões e portes populacionais, o período entre 2010 e 2015 apresentou desaceleração do crescimento das taxas. Conclusões: A análise deixa claro que há concentrações de municípios com mortalidade mais elevada, ao mesmo tempo que mostra ter havido crescimento do fenômeno para maior número de municípios. O recorte temporal estudado possibilita identificar diferentes dinâmicas na mortalidade feminina, em um período de importante variação da mortalidade por acidente de motocicleta. ABSTRACT: Objective: To analyze the spatial distribution of female mortality due to motorcycle accidents in Brazilian municipalities between 2005 and 2015, as well as the variation in rates in the same period. Methods: Female mortality rates for the years 2005, 2010 and 2015 were estimated considering a three-year moving average around the base year, standardized by the direct method. Rates were standardized using the same pattern (Brazilian females in 2010) for each year. Then, the empirical Bayes estimator was used to reduce the effect of the random fluctuation. The percentage variation of the standardized rates was also analyzed for different population sizes (less than ten thousand, less than 50 thousand, more than 100 thousand and more than one million inhabitants). Results: Bayesian rates showed a clear increase in female mortality due to motorcycle accidents, especially in the North, Northeast and Midwest regions. In the municipalities of the South and Southeast regions, mainly in the period between 2010 and 2015, there was an apparent decrease in mortality. The percentage variation showed a reduction in the indicator analyzed in the period between 2010 and 2015 for the largest municipalities in the South and Southeast regions. For almost all regions and population sizes, the period between 2010 and 2015 showed a deceleration in the growth of rates. Conclusion: The analysis clearly shows concentrations of municipalities with higher mortality, while also showing that the phenomenon has spread to a greater number of municipalities. The studied period allows the identification of different dynamics in female mortality, in a period of significant variation in mortality due to motorcycle accidents.

In this paper, we use a bivariate choropleth map to investigate the relationship between mortality from cardiovascular disease (CVD) and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, by sex, in Japanese prefectures from 1996 to 2015. The overall results show a decline in age-standardized CVD mortality rates in all prefectures, for both men and women, and suggest that GDP per capita has varied over the period. We also observed that the relationship between CVD mortality rates and GDP per capita at the prefecture level does not have an overall pattern of the same or inverse association, but is instead a heterogeneous relationship. We argue that this study provides useful clues to policy makers for establishing effective measures for public health planning and the prevention of deaths from CVD. As demonstrated by this study, mapping of the CVD burden in Japan helps to clarify regional differences in life expectancy and health status across regions and identify prefectures where more targeted policy attention may be needed.

Missov and Lenart (2013) derived closed-form solutions to the life expectancy and remaining life expectancy at age x when the mortality is governed by a Gompertz-Makeham hazard, which is a parametric model commonly applied to human mortality data at adult and old ages. However, the closed-form expressions provided by these authors are not correct. We provide, therefore, valid and correct expressions using elementary calculus. We also consider numerical studies using real data to show that the formulas we provide deliver satisfactory results.

Background Mortality registries are an essential data source for public health surveillance and for planning and evaluating public policy. Nevertheless, there are still large inequalities in the completeness and quality of mortality registries between and within countries. In Ecuador, there have been few nationwide evaluations of the mortality registry and no evaluations of inequalities between provinces. This kind of analysis is fundamental for strengthening the vital statistics system. Methods Ecological study assessing the completeness, quality and internal consistency of mortality data in the provinces of Ecuador, using 13 years of mortality data (2001–2013). Completeness was assessed using three types of death distribution methods (DDMs), quality by estimating the percentages of garbage codes and deaths with unspecified age or sex in the registered deaths, and internal consistency by estimating the percentage of deaths with reported causes of deaths considered impossible in some age–sex combinations. Finally, we propose a classification of the mortality registry in the studied areas based on completeness and quality. Results Completeness estimates (mean of the three methods used) in the provinces ranged from 21 to 87% in women and from 35 to 89% in men. The percentage of garbage codes in the provinces ranged from 21 to 56% in women and from 25 to 52% in men. Garbage coding was higher in women and in older age groups. The percentage of deaths with unspecified age or sex, and the percentage of deaths with reported causes of deaths considered impossible in some age–sex combinations was low in all the studied areas. The mortality registry could only be classified as acceptable in one area for men and one area for women. Conclusions We found substantial inequalities by sex, geographical areas and age in the completeness and quality of the mortality registry of Ecuador. The findings of this study will be helpful to direct measures to improve Ecuador’s vital statistics system and to generate strategies to reduce bias when using mortality data to analyse health inequalities in the country. Andrés Peralta was supported by the National Scholarship programme of the Ecuadorian government -National Secretary of Higher Education, Science, Technology and Innovation (SENESCYT – Convocatoria Abierta 2013 – Primera Fase).

Latin American countries are undergoing major changes in their mortality profiles due to unique epidemiological and health transitions in the region. The main goal of this paper is to study the evolution of the mortality age profiles and the distribution of age at death for a series of Latin America countries in order to identify the effects of mortality changes on the variability of age at death. We use data from different and alternative sources (who, lahmd, and lambda) to study this issue in the region. We first evaluate the quality of national-level mortality data overtime in Latin American countries. Using a relational model, we estimate the mortality patterns by single year age-groups, for each country in Latin America. Lastly, we use traditional metrics of age at death variability to perform the analysis. Our results indicate that the quality of mortality data is improving over time for all countries we include. We also find a decrease in variability of age at death, and that the decrease has happened faster for females than for males. In recent years, increasing mortality due to external causes of deaths related to violence, have reduced the rise in life expectancy at birth and increased the variability in the age at death for several countries in the region. These results contribute to the study of mortality changes in Latin America looking at mortality compression and the variability of age at death. Over the last half-century there has been a reduction in the variability of age at death, but more recently, increases in external causes of death have been associated with a stagnation in the compression process. The analysis also provides some insight and questions about morbidity trends in the region

RESUMO: Objetivo: Avaliar a qualidade do registro de óbitos do Datasus, por sexo e estados brasileiros, e estimar as probabilidades de morte adulta, 45q15, por sexo e estados, entre 1980 e 2010. Métodos: O estudo foi baseado em dados de mortalidade obtidos no Sistema de Informação de Mortalidade do Datasus, de 1980 a 2010, e em dados de população dos censos demográficos de 1980, 1991, 2000 e 2010. A avaliação da qualidade dos dados de registro foi feita utilizando-se métodos demográficos tradicionais e métodos de distribuição de mortes, e as probabilidades de morte foram calculadas a partir dos conceitos de tabelas de vida. Resultados: Os resultados indicam uma melhoria considerável do grau de cobertura de óbitos no Brasil desde 1980. Nas regiões Sudeste e Sul, observamos uma completa cobertura do registro de mortalidade adulta, o que não ocorria no decênio anterior. Por outro lado, no Nordeste e no Norte ainda existem localidades com baixo grau de cobertura entre 2000 e 2010. Em todos os estados do Brasil, observa-se um declínio da probabilidade de morte dos adultos. Observamos que as probabilidades de morte dos homens são muito mais elevadas do que as das mulheres. Conclusão: As melhorias observadas parecem estar relacionadas aos investimentos no sistema público de saúde e aos procedimentos administrativos para melhorar o registro dos eventos vitais. ABSTRACT: Objective: Assess the completeness of the DataSUS SIM death-count registry, by sex and Brazilian state, and estimate the probability of adult mortality (45q15), by sex and state, from 1980 to 2010. Methods: The study was based on mortality data obtained in the DataSUS Mortality Information System, from 1980 to 2010, and on population data from the 1980, 1991, 2000, and 2010 demographic censuses. The quality assessment of the registry data was conducted using traditional demographic and death distribution methods, and death probabilities were calculated using life-table concepts. Results: The results show a considerable improvement in the completeness of the death-count coverage in Brazil since 1980. In the southeast and south, we observed the complete coverage of the adult mortality registry, which did not occur in the previous decade. In the northeast and north, there were still places with a low coverage from 2000 to 2010, although there was a clear improvement in the quality of data. For all Brazilian states, there was a decline in the probability of adult mortality; we observed, however, that the death probability for males is much higher than that for females throughout the whole analysis period. Conclusion: The observed improvements seem to be related to investments in the public health care system and administrative procedures to improve the recording of vital events.

There have been no previous estimates on differences in adult or overall mortality in indigenous peoples in Brazil, although such indicators are extremely important for reducing social iniquities in health in this population segment. Brazil has made significant strides in recent decades to fill the gaps in data on indigenous peoples in the national statistics. The aim of this paper is to present estimated mortality rates for indigenous and non-indigenous persons in different age groups, based on data from the 2010 Population Census. The estimates used the question on deaths from specific household surveys. The results indicate important differences in mortality rates between indigenous and non-indigenous persons in all the selected age groups and in both sexes. These differences are more pronounced in childhood, especially in girls. The indicators corroborate the fact that indigenous peoples in Brazil are in a situation of extreme vulnerability in terms of their health, based on these unprecedented estimates of the size of these differences.

Assess the completeness of the DataSUS SIM death-count registry, by sex and Brazilian state, and estimate the probability of adult mortality (45q15), by sex and state, from 1980 to 2010.The study was based on mortality data obtained in the DataSUS Mortality Information System, from 1980 to 2010, and on population data from the 1980, 1991, 2000, and 2010 demographic censuses. The quality assessment of the registry data was conducted using traditional demographic and death distribution methods, and death probabilities were calculated using life-table concepts.The results show a considerable improvement in the completeness of the death-count coverage in Brazil since 1980. In the southeast and south, we observed the complete coverage of the adult mortality registry, which did not occur in the previous decade. In the northeast and north, there were still places with a low coverage from 2000 to 2010, although there was a clear improvement in the quality of data. For all Brazilian states, there was a decline in the probability of adult mortality; we observed, however, that the death probability for males is much higher than that for females throughout the whole analysis period.The observed improvements seem to be related to investments in the public health care system and administrative procedures to improve the recording of vital events.

Death distribution methods proposed for death registration coverage by comparison with census age distributions assume no net migration. This assumption makes it problematic to apply these methods to sub-national and national populations affected by substantial net migration. In this paper, we propose and explore a two-step process in which the Growth Balance Equation is first used to estimate net migration rates, using a model of age-specific migration, and then it is used to compare the observed death rates over successive ages against residual estimates made up by the entry rate plus the net migration rate minus the growth rate. This methodology is predicated on the observation that migration rates have a very different age pattern from death rates; it is only when this condition is true that net migration and deaths can be distinguished. The procedure proposed here works reasonably well in populations that generally have good data and rather high net migration rates. There is no reason to prefer the revised migration model over the original Rogers-Castro formulation. Os métodos de distribuição de mortalidade propostos para cobertura do registro de óbitos por comparação com distribuições de idades censitárias pressupõem população fechada ou saldo migratório pequeno. Tal pressuposto dificulta a aplicação desses métodos para populações subnacionais e nacionais afetadas por saldos migratórios substanciais. Neste artigo, propomos e exploramos um processo de dois estágios no qual a Equação Geral de Balanceamento é usada, primeiro para calcular as taxas de migração, utilizando um modelo de migração específica por idade, e então utilizado para comparar as taxas de mortalidade observadas para idades sucessivas em contraste com estimativas residuais feitas pela taxa de entrada mais a taxa de saldo migratório menos a taxa de crescimento. Esta metodologia baseia-se na observação de que as taxas de migração possuem um padrão etário muito diferente das taxas de mortalidade; apenas quando esta condição é verdadeira, saldo migratório e mortalidade podem ser diferenciados. O procedimento aqui proposto funciona razoavelmente bem em populações que possuem bons dados e taxas de saldo migratório relativamente altas. Não há motivo para preferir o modelo de migração revisto em detrimento da fórmula original de Rogers-Castro. Los métodos de distribución de mortalidad, propuestos para la cobertura del registro de óbitos por comparación con distribuciones de edades censitarias, presuponen población cerrada o saldo migratorio pequeño. Tal presupuesto dificulta la aplicación de estos métodos para poblaciones sub-nacionales y nacionales afectadas por saldos migratorios substanciales. En este artículo, proponemos y exploramos un proceso de dos estadios en el que se usa la ecuación general de balance, primero para calcular las tasas de migración, utilizando un modelo de migración específica por edad, y por tanto utilizado para comparar las tasas de mortalidad observadas para edades sucesivas, en contraste con estimativas residuales realizadas por tasa de entrada, más tasa de saldo migratorio, menos tasa de crecimiento. Esta metodología se basa en la observación de que las tasas de migración poseen un patrón de edad muy diferente de las tasas de mortalidad; solamente cuando esta condición es verdadera, saldo migratorio y mortalidad se pueden diferenciar. El procedimiento aquí propuesto funciona razonablemente bien en poblaciones que poseen buenos datos y tasas de saldo migratorio relativamente altas. No existe motivo para preferir el modelo de migración revisado, en detrimento de la fórmula original de Rogers-Castro.

Este trabalho analisou as mudanças na estrutura de mortalidade da população do Estado de São Paulo, Brasil, entre 1980 e 2005, na tentativa de identificar os efeitos destas mudanças na variabilidade da idade à morte. As evidências de um deslocamento da distribuição de óbitos para as idades mais avançadas foram claras, pois o tempo médio de vida da população aumentou cerca de sete anos. Buscou-se analisar se esse deslocamento foi acompanhado por uma redução na variabilidade da idade à morte, o que daria suporte para o início de um processo de compressão da mortalidade. Dois períodos distintos de mudança na variabilidade da idade à morte foram evidenciados. No primeiro (1980 a 1995), identificou-se aumento na variabilidade da idade à morte. Já no segundo (1995 a 2005) reconheceu-se tendência de redução nessa variabilidade. Estimativas acima de determinado quartil da distribuição dos óbitos por idade indicaram que o processo de compressão da mortalidade ocorreu em quase todo o período. Destaca-se que as mulheres apresentaram variabilidade da idade à morte significativamente menor que os homens em todo o período analisado. In the present study, changes in the population mortality structure in the State of São Paulo, Brazil, were analyzed from 1980 to 2005, aimed at identifying the effects of these changes on the variability of age at death. Evidence of a change in the distribution of deaths toward more advanced ages was found, and the mean lifespan for the overall population increased by seven years during the period. Two different scenarios were observed. The first (1980-1995) showed an increase in the variability of age at death. The second (1995-2005) showed a downward trend in variability. Estimates beyond a given quartile of the death distribution by age indicated that compression of mortality took place throughout the entire period. However, variability of age at death was lower for males as compared to females.

Resumo Os censos demográficos de Moçambique de 1997 e 2007 incluíram, em seu questionário, a pergunta sobre óbitos ocorridos no domicílio nos últimos 12 meses. O objetivo do artigo é fazer uma avaliação da qualidade da informação de mortalidade do censo para o país e suas três grandes regiões. Mais especificamente, com base em métodos demográficos formais, busca-se avaliar a qualidade da informação em termos de grau de cobertura da enumeração de óbitos e da estrutura de mortalidade, sumarizada pela probabilidade de morte entre 15 e 60 anos de idade. Em 2007, o censo enumerou entre 65 e 90% dos óbitos ocorridos em Moçambique, indicando que estimativas de mortalidade usando métodos diretos subestimam a mortalidade no país. O trabalho mostrou que há uma avanço na qualidade da enumeração da mortalidade no país e que na ausência de registros vitais de qualidade, os censos demográficos podem ser uma boa fonte de informação de mortalidade para os países em desenvolvimento. Abstract In 1997 and 2007, the questionnaire used in the Population Census in Mozambique included a question on deaths at home in the previous 12 months. This study aimed to evaluate the quality of mortality data for the country as a whole and its three major geographic regions. More specifically, based on formal demographic methods, the authors sought to evaluate the quality of information in terms of degree of coverage of death counts and mortality structure, summarized by the probability of death between 15 and 60 years of age. The 2007 census enumerated between 65% and 90% of deaths in Mozambique, suggesting that mortality estimates using direct methods underestimate mortality in the country. The study showed that there has been progress in the quality of death counts in the census, and that in the absence of high-quality vital statistics, population censuses can be a good source of mortality data in developing countries. Resumen En este trabajo se analizaron los censos de población de Mozambique entre 1997 y 2007 que contaban con preguntas sobre el origen de las muertes que se produjeron en los últimos 12 meses. El objetivo del trabajo era evaluar la calidad de los datos de mortalidad para este país y sus tres regiones principales. Más específicamente se buscó evaluar, sobre una base de métodos demográficos formales, la calidad de la información en términos de grado de cobertura en la enumeración de las muertes y estructura de la mortalidad, resumida por la probabilidad de morir entre los 15 y 60 años de edad. En 2007, el censo enumeró entre un 65% y un 90% de las muertes en Mozambique, lo que indica que las estimaciones de mortalidad, utilizando métodos directos subestiman la mortalidad en el país. El estudio mostró que existe un progreso en la calidad de la enumeración de muertes reflejadas en el censo y en ausencia de registros de vida de calidad, los censos de población pueden ser una buena fuente de datos de mortalidad de los países en desarrollo.

This study analyzed the relationship between household socioeconomic status and local social conditions and risk of death in Brazilian youth 15 to 29 years of age. Mortality data from the previous 12 months collected by the 2010 Population Census were used for the analysis at the local level. Data analysis was based on hierarchical models that allowed identifying the role of household social conditions and municipality and state of residence on mortality in young Brazilians. Differences in socioeconomic status between households accounted for more than 90% of the variability in risk of death. Residing in socioeconomically deprived areas also increased the odds of death among young people from households of any socioeconomic status.

In 1997 and 2007, the questionnaire used in the Population Census in Mozambique included a question on deaths at home in the previous 12 months. This study aimed to evaluate the quality of mortality data for the country as a whole and its three major geographic regions. More specifically, based on formal demographic methods, the authors sought to evaluate the quality of information in terms of degree of coverage of death counts and mortality structure, summarized by the probability of death between 15 and 60 years of age. The 2007 census enumerated between 65% and 90% of deaths in Mozambique, suggesting that mortality estimates using direct methods underestimate mortality in the country. The study showed that there has been progress in the quality of death counts in the census, and that in the absence of high-quality vital statistics, population censuses can be a good source of mortality data in developing countries.

This paper examines the spatial pattern of ill-defined causes of death across Brazilian regions, and its relationship with the evolution of completeness of the deaths registry and changes in the mortality age profile. We make use of the Brazilian Health Informatics Department mortality database and population censuses from 1980 to 2010. We applied demographic methods to evaluate the quality of mortality data for 137 small areas and correct for under-registration of death counts when necessary. The second part of the analysis uses linear regression models to investigate the relationship between, on the one hand, changes in death counts coverage and age profile of mortality, and on the other, changes in the reporting of ill-defined causes of death. The completeness of death counts coverage increases from about 80% in 1980-1991 to over 95% in 2000-2010 at the same time the percentage of ill-defined causes of deaths reduced about 53% in the country. The analysis suggests that the government’s efforts to improve data quality are proving successful, and they will allow for a better understanding of the dynamics of health and the mortality transition. Este artigo analisa o padrão espacial das causas mal definidas de morte no Brasil e sua relação com a evolução do registro de óbitos e as mudanças no perfil etário da mortalidade. Usamos o banco de dados de mortalidade disponível no Departamento de Informática do SUS e os censos demográficos de 1980 a 2010, e aplicamos métodos demográficos para avaliar a qualidade dos dados de mortalidade por 137 pequenas áreas e corrigir o sub-registro de óbitos. A segunda parte da análise utiliza modelos de regressão linear para investigar a relação entre as mudanças na cobertura do registro de óbitos e o perfil etário da mortalidade em relação às mudanças no registro de causas mal definidas. Os resultados mostram que a cobertura do registro de óbito no Brasil saltou de 80% em 1980-1991 para mais de 95% em 2000-2010. Ao mesmo tempo, o porcentual de causas mal definidas de mortes reduziu cerca de 53% no país. A análise sugere que os esforços do governo para melhorar a qualidade de dados no Brasil são bem sucedidos, e que irá permitir uma melhor compreensão da dinâmica da saúde e da transição da mortalidade no país. Este artículo examina el patrón espacial de causas mal definidas de muerte en todas las regiones brasileñas, y su relación con la evolución de la totalidad de muertes por registro, además de con los cambios producidos en el perfil de edad de mortalidad. Usamos la base de datos de mortalidad DATASUS y censos de población de 1980 a 2010. Se aplicaron métodos demográficos para evaluar la calidad de los datos de mortalidad en 137 áreas pequeñas y se realizaron revisiones para el recuento de las muertes por subregistro. En la segunda parte del análisis se emplean modelos de regresión lineal para investigar la relación entre los cambios en la cobertura de registro de muerte y el perfil de edad de mortalidad, respecto a los cambios en la presentación de causas mal definidas de la muerte. Los datos resultantes informan de un aumento en la cobertura del 80% al 95% y una reducción de un 53% en las causas mal definidas de 1980 a 2010. El análisis sugiere que los esfuerzos del gobierno para mejorar la calidad de los datos son exitosos, y permitirán una mejor comprensión de la dinámica de la salud y la transición de mortalidad.

O Censo brasileiro de 2010 incluiu, em seu questionário, a pergunta sobre óbitos ocorridos no domicílio nos últimos 12 meses. Anteriormente, uma questão similar havia sido incluída na amostra do Censo de 1980, mas sendo pouco utilizada. O objetivo do artigo é fazer uma avaliação da qualidade da informação de mortalidade do Censo, em especial sobre a estrutura etária da mortalidade. Em relação à cobertura da enumeração dos óbitos, esta saltou de 40%, no Censo de 1980, para 80%, no de 2010. Os resultados mostram que, para o Brasil, a qualidade das informações é bastante elevada tanto no nível como no padrão das curvas de mortalidade obtidas. A grande restrição existe para os grupos de idade mais avançados. El Censo brasileño de 2010 incluyó, en su cuestionario, la pregunta sobre óbitos producidos en el domicilio durante los últimos 12 meses. Anteriormente, una cuestión similar había sido incluida en la muestra del Censo de 1980, pero fue poco utilizada. El objetivo de este artículo es realizar una evaluación de la calidad de la información de mortalidad del Censo, en especial sobre la estructura etaria de la mortalidad. En relación con la cobertura de la enumeración de los óbitos, esta saltó de un 40%, en el Censo de 1980, a un 80%, en el de 2010. Los resultados muestran que, en el caso de Brasil, la calidad de la información es bastante elevada tanto en el nivel como en el patrón de las curvas de mortalidad obtenidas. La gran restricción existe para los grupos de edad más avanzados. The Brazilian Census of 2010 included in its survey a question on the deaths occurring in the household in the past 12 months. Previously, a similar question was included in the sample of the 1980 census, but has been rarely used. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the quality of mortality data from the Census, especially in regards to mortality age structure. The coverage of deaths went from 40% in 1980 Census to 80% in 2010 Census. The results show that, in Brazil, the quality of information is quite high both in level and in the pattern of mortality curves obtained. A more important restriction exists for groups of more advanced age.

In the present study, changes in the population mortality structure in the State of São Paulo, Brazil, were analyzed from 1980 to 2005, aimed at identifying the effects of these changes on the variability of age at death. Evidence of a change in the distribution of deaths toward more advanced ages was found, and the mean lifespan for the overall population increased by seven years during the period. Two different scenarios were observed. The first (1980-1995) showed an increase in the variability of age at death. The second (1995-2005) showed a downward trend in variability. Estimates beyond a given quartile of the death distribution by age indicated that compression of mortality took place throughout the entire period. However, variability of age at death was lower for males as compared to females.

Na maioria dos países em desenvolvimento, omissão nos censos populacionais e omissões no sistema de registo vital são comuns. Portanto, é importante avaliar a integralidade da cobertura do registro censitário e de óbitos e realizar os ajustes necessários. Os métodos de distribuição de morte (DDM) são um dos três métodos para avaliar a qualidade dos dados e estimar a mortalidade de adultos. DDM compararam a distribuição dos óbitos por idade com a distribuição etária dos vivos e fornecem o padrão etário da mortalidade em um período de referência definido. Nesta dissertação, o objetivo principal é avaliar a qualidade do registro de óbitos e enumeração dos censos populacionais para estimar a mortalidade de adultos no Suriname e seus principais regiões entre 2004 e 2012. Foram aplicados os métodos de distribuição de morte usando diferentes segmentos etários incluindo ou excluindo uma alta proporção de migração de pico por sexo para o Suriname e as suas regiões. Nós produzimos estimativas do grau de cobertura do registro de óbitos, ajustamos os dados e produzimos estimativas de mortalidade de adultos por sexo e para cada um das regiões. A análise dos métodos de distribuição de morte por vários segmentos etários no estudo do Suriname e seus principais regiões é necessário por causa da presença de migração interna e internacional e porse tratar de uma população pequena. A qualidade dos dados populacionais do Censo 2004 e de 2012 do Suriname e suas principais regiões foram considerados bons. No que diz respeito a cobertura do registro de óbitos, a qualidade para o país varia de razoável a boa. Os resultados das probabilidades de morte são para a população masculina e feminina nos intervalos respectivamente. A zona costeira urbana e rural costeira mostram para a população masculina e feminina perto do nível de mortalidade observado no país . No entanto, a população masculina e feminina da área rural interior tem valores médios abaixo ou acima dos valores da região litoral costeira e urbano ou rural, dependendo do método de distribuição de morte e os segmentos de idade aplicados. A probabilidade média de morrer entre os 15 e 60 anos de idade para a população masculina e feminina na área rural interior, por diferentes métodos de distribuição morte e segmentos etários, está no intervalyo , respectivamente. In most developing countries, omission in population censuses and vital registration system omissions are common. Therefore, it is important to assess completeness of coverage of the census and death registration to make some adjustments accordingly. The death distribution methods (DDM) are one of the three advanced methods for evaluating data quality or otherwise estimating adult mortality. DDM compare the distribution of the deaths by age with the age distribution of the living and furthermore provide the age pattern of mortality in a defined reference period. In this dissertation, the main objective is to evaluate the data quality of the death counts and population enumeration to estimate adult mortality in Suriname and its main regions between 2004 and 2012. We applied the death distribution methods using different age segments including or excluding a high proportion of peak migration by sex for Suriname and its central regions. We produced estimates of completeness of death counts coverage, adjusted the data and produce adult mortality estimates. The analysis of the death distribution methods by various age segments in the study of Suriname and its main regions is necessary because of the presence of internal and international migration in this small scale population. The quality of the population data of Census 2004 and 2012 of Suriname and its main regions is considered to be good. With respect to the death count, the quality for the country varies from reasonable to good. The results of indicates probabilities of dying for the male and female population in the intervals respectively. The urban coastal area and rural coastal area show for a male and female population close to those on a country level. However, the for a male and female population of the rural interior area have on average values below or above the values of the urban coastal and or rural coastal area depending on the death distribution method and the age segments adopted. The average probability of dying between 15 and 60 years of age for the male and female population in the rural interior area by different death distribution methods and age segments is in the interval respectively.

Submitted by Roger Guedes (roger.guedes@fjp.mg.gov.br) on 2013-08-25T03:23:38Z No. of bitstreams: 2 Influencia da mortalidade e da estrutura etária na cobertura previdenciária.pdf: 847410 bytes, checksum: 2df97ef326a3d54d864333ccd4bc2b48 (MD5) license_rdf: 23599 bytes, checksum: 9e2b7f6edbd693264102b96ece20428a (MD5) Approved for entry into archive by Roger Guedes (roger.guedes@fjp.mg.gov.br) on 2013-08-25T03:24:47Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2 Influencia da mortalidade e da estrutura etária na cobertura previdenciária.pdf: 847410 bytes, checksum: 2df97ef326a3d54d864333ccd4bc2b48 (MD5) license_rdf: 23599 bytes, checksum: 9e2b7f6edbd693264102b96ece20428a (MD5) Made available in DSpace on 2013-08-25T03:24:47Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 Influencia da mortalidade e da estrutura etária na cobertura previdenciária.pdf: 847410 bytes, checksum: 2df97ef326a3d54d864333ccd4bc2b48 (MD5) license_rdf: 23599 bytes, checksum: 9e2b7f6edbd693264102b96ece20428a (MD5) Previous issue date: 2007 Item withdrawn by João Paulo Mantini Veras (joao.veras@fjp.mg.gov.br) on 2021-04-15T14:01:06Z Item was in collections: FJP - DISSERTAÇÕES DE MESTRADO (ID: 50) No. of bitstreams: 3 Influencia da mortalidade e da estrutura etária na cobertura previdenciária.pdf.txt: 270275 bytes, checksum: 2b00f208c0eee42ff8647c643a73ecbc (MD5) license_rdf: 23599 bytes, checksum: 9e2b7f6edbd693264102b96ece20428a (MD5) Influencia da mortalidade e da estrutura etária na cobertura previdenciária.pdf: 847410 bytes, checksum: 2df97ef326a3d54d864333ccd4bc2b48 (MD5) Item reinstated by Renato Lourenço (renato.lourenco@fjp.mg.gov.br) on 2022-04-26T17:12:15Z Item was in collections: FJP - DISSERTAÇÕES DE MESTRADO (ID: 50) No. of bitstreams: 3 Influencia da mortalidade e da estrutura etária na cobertura previdenciária.pdf.txt: 270275 bytes, checksum: 2b00f208c0eee42ff8647c643a73ecbc (MD5) license_rdf: 23599 bytes, checksum: 9e2b7f6edbd693264102b96ece20428a (MD5) Influencia da mortalidade e da estrutura etária na cobertura previdenciária.pdf: 847410 bytes, checksum: 2df97ef326a3d54d864333ccd4bc2b48 (MD5) Fundação João Pinheiro A cobertura previdenciária é um importante mecanismo de proteção social, pois as pessoas cobertas têm garantia de renda nas situações em que estão impedidas de trabalhar, tais como invalidez, gravidez e nas idades mais avançadas, e, seus dependentes ficam resguardados por pensão no caso de morte do segurado. Por isso, muitas políticas públicas têm buscado ampliar a proporção de pessoas protegidas socialmente. Entretanto, apesar de vários fatores poderem fazer com que a proporção de pessoas cobertas varie, os estudos, em geral, apontam apenas os fatores associados ao mercado de trabalho e pouco discorrem sobre a influência dos fatores demográficos na cobertura previdenciária. Contudo, mesmo que as taxas de filiação previdenciária de duas populações sejam iguais, em virtude de desigualdades nos fatores demográficos, as coberturas não são necessariamente as mesmas. Portanto, este trabalho tem por propósito verificar se os fatores demográficos – neste caso, a mortalidade e a estrutura etária – podem influenciar a cobertura previdenciária por aposentadoria e mostrar de que maneira eles contribuem para que existam variações nesta cobertura. Para essas análises, foram escolhidos cinco estados brasileiros: Amazonas, Alagoas, Rio de Janeiro, Rio Grande do Sul e Mato Grosso. Para verificar a contribuição da mortalidade na cobertura, compararam-se as coberturas previdenciárias de cada Estado obtidas a partir de projeções do estoque de aposentadorias de 2000, nas quais se utilizou dois níveis diferentes de mortalidade e se supôs que os demais fatores fossem constantes. Pôde se confirmar, a contribuição da estrutura etária na cobertura – através do emprego da técnica de decomposição da diferença entre taxas – e o efeito deste fator no diferencial de cobertura entre os Estados, e, entre os sexos. Os resultados obtidos mostram que a mortalidade e estrutura etária influenciam o número de aposentados, e, como estes fatores demográficos são diferenciados, eles contribuem para que a cobertura dos estados varie. Assim, conclui-se que, para uma determinada taxa específica de entrada em aposentadoria, quanto menor for o nível da mortalidade à qual uma população está submetida, maior será o número de aposentados e maior poderá ser a cobertura previdenciária. Além disso, estruturas etárias mais envelhecidas contribuem para que a cobertura previdenciária seja mais elevada, e, o efeito da composição etária nas diferenças de cobertura deverá ser maior quanto mais diferente forem as estruturas etárias das populações comparadas. The retirement plan coverage is important for the population because it provides insurance to workers and their families for losses resulting from a worker's death, disability or age. A majority the literature cites factors related to the labor market as the principal causes of coverage variation, but almost none analyzes the influence of demographic factors. The demographic factors vary and their influence probably varies too. So, if two populations have the same specific tax coverage but different mortality or age structure, the retirement plan coverage isn’t necessarily be the same. The aim of this study is to prove that mortality and age distribution could influence the retirement plan coverage and to demonstrate how these factors contribute to the differences in coverage. To do this, five states were chosen(Amazonas, Alagoas, Rio de Janeiro, Rio Grande do Sul, and Mato Grosso). To determine the influence of mortality in the retirement coverage, the retirement population of 2000, in each selected State, was projected until 2020, utilizing two different mortalities levels and the same coverage taxes. The retirement coverage that was found in each projection was compared to another that was calculated to the same State. The findings show that selected demographic factors – mortality and age structure – influenced the number of retirees, and, since they differ from state to state, these factors could contribute to the variations in coverage.The results agreed with the expectations and showed that, with a constant retirement tax, the lower the mortality, the greater the coverage could be. Therefore, an aging distribution of the population contributes to greater retirement coverage and the greater the differences between the age distributions, the greater the contribution of the distribution could be. Trabalho