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Background: Income is not frequently used to monitor health equity on a national level largely due to the lack of public data on income. Information on income allows policy makers to identify the economically disadvantaged population in a country directly. We examined differences in life expectancy (LE) at birth by income and quantified age- and cause-specific contributions to the LE differences using national health insurance data. Methods: Data from a nationally representative sample of 1097 333 South Koreans (2% of the total population) collected between 2002 and 2010 (39 737 deaths) were used. National health insurance premiums were used to estimate income level. Age- and cause-specific contributions to differences in LE at birth by income were estimated using Arriaga's decomposition method. Results: LE at birth gradually increased with income in both genders. Interquintile income LE differences were 7.93 years in males and 3.82 years in females. Most of LE differentials were attributed to differences in mortality in middle-aged and older adults. Suicide and cerebrovascular accidents were the two leading causes of death contributing the most to income LE differences in both males and females. The top 10 causes of death accounted for over 50% of the total LE differences by income in both genders. Alcohol-related causes of death explained the majority of the gender differences in the income LE differentials. Conclusions: Income differentials in LE at birth according to national health insurance premiums and data linkage systems could provide a valuable opportunity for monitoring and prioritizing population health inequalities in South Korea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The essay discusses biopolitics and population aesthetics. Topics discussed include contemporary thought, idiosyncrasies and Open Source movement. Other topics which includes population, philosopher Michel Foucault and mortality are also discussed. Further, topics including human laws and neoliberalism are mentioned.

We show that Bayesian population reconstruction, a recent method for estimating past populations by age, works for data of widely varying quality. Bayesian reconstruction simultaneously estimates age-specific population counts, fertility rates, mortality rates, and net international migration flows from fragmentary data, while formally accounting for measurement error. As inputs, Bayesian reconstruction uses initial bias-reduced estimates of standard demographic variables. We reconstruct the female populations of three countries: Laos, a country with little vital registration data where population estimation depends largely on surveys; Sri Lanka, a country with some vital registration data; and New Zealand, a country with a highly developed statistical system and good quality vital registration data. In addition, we extend the method to countries without censuses at regular intervals. We also use it to assess the consistency of results between model life tables and available census data, and hence to compare different model life table systems. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Background: Data on long-term prognosis after spondylodiscitis are scarce. The purpose of this study was to determine long-term mortality and the causes of death after spondylodiscitis.Methods: A nationwide, population-based cohort study using national registries of patients diagnosed with non-post-operative pyogenic spondylodiscitis from 1994–2009, alive 1 year after diagnosis (n = 1505). A comparison cohort from the background population individually matched for sex and age was identified (n = 7525). Kaplan-Meier survival curves were constructed and Poisson regression analyses used to estimate mortality rate ratios (MRR).Results: Three hundred and sixty-five patients (24%) and 1115 individuals from the comparison cohort (15%) died. Unadjusted MRR for spondylodiscitis patients was 1.76 (95% CI = 1.57–1.98) and 1.47 (95% CI = 1.30–1.66) after adjustment for comorbidity. No deaths were observed in 128 patients under the age of 16 years. Siblings of patients did not have increased long-term mortality compared with siblings of the individuals from the comparison cohort. This study observed increased mortality due to infections (MRR = 2.57), neoplasms (MRR = 1.40), endocrine (MRR = 3.72), cardiovascular (MRR = 1.62), respiratory (MRR = 1.71), gastrointestinal (MRR = 3.35), musculoskeletal (MRR = 5.39) and genitourinary diseases (MRR = 3.37), but also due to trauma, poisoning and external causes (MRR = 2.78), alcohol abuse-related diseases (MRR = 5.59) and drug abuse-related diseases (6 vs 0 deaths, MRR not calculable).Conclusions: Patients diagnosed with spondylodiscitis have increased long-term mortality, mainly due to comorbidities, particularly substance abuse. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Aim To study prospectively the ethnic-specific risks of cardiovascular disease, end-stage renal disease and all-cause mortality in patients with Type 2 diabetes mellitus among native Asian subpopulations. Methods A total of 2337 subjects with Type 2 diabetes (70% Chinese, 17% Malay and 13% Asian Indian) were followed for a median of 4.0 years. Time-to-event analysis was used to study the association of ethnicity with adverse outcomes. Results Age- and gender-adjusted hazard ratios for cardiovascular disease in ethnic Malay and Asian Indian subjects were 2.01 (1.40-2.88; P<0.0001) and 1.60 (1.07-2.41; P=0.022) as compared with Chinese subjects. Adjustment for conventional cardiovascular disease risk factors, including HbA1c, blood pressure and lipid profile, slightly attenuated the hazards in Malay (1.82, 1.23-2.71; P=0.003) and Asian Indian subjects (1.47, 0.95-2.30; P=0.086); However, further adjustment for baseline renal function (estimated GFR) and albuminuria weakened the cardiovascular disease risks in Malay (1.48, 0.98-2.26; P=0.065) but strengthened that in Asian Indian subjects (1.81, 1.14-2.87; P=0.012). Competing-risk regression showed that the age- and gender-adjusted sub-distribution hazard ratio for end-stage renal disease was 1.87 (1.27-2.73; P=0.001) in Malay and 0.39 (0.18-0.83; P=0.015) in Asian Indian subjects. Notably, the difference in end-stage renal disease risk among the three ethnic groups was abolished after further adjustment for baseline estimated GFR and albuminuria. There was no significant difference in risk of all-cause mortality among the three ethnic groups. Conclusions Risks of cardiovascular and end-stage renal diseases in native Asian subjects with Type 2 diabetes vary substantially among different ethnic groups. Differences in prevalence of diabetic kidney disease may partially explain the ethnic disparities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Isla del Coco is the only oceanic island in the Eastern Pacific with humid tropical climate. Its forests have a particular structure with a unique array of plant species and high endemism. There are few studies on the flora or forest monitoring on the island. The population structure of Sacoglottis holdridgei was analyzed using data from six years with data points taken in 2006 and 2012, including sampling of regeneration in 2012. Sacoglottis holdridgei was the most important tree species, presenting in 2012 the highest Importance Value Index (190.7±21.8), abundance (158.5±40.3 Nha-1 or 39.5 % of the forest) and basal area (15.6 m2ha-1 or 72.9 % of the forest). It was present in all three height strata with dominance in the highest. Annual mortality was reported at 3.3 % and recruitment at 1.2 %. The diameter distribution of forest fits the inverted J model, but not for the reported species of which only S. holdridgei tends to adjust for DBH>40 cm. Regeneration fitted the inverted J model with values below those reported for continental forests. Even though it was the dominant species, S. holdridgei showed low regeneration values. This particular condition, give way hypotheses related to the introduction of species, species biology and climate change which could influence the future development of S. holdridgei and forests of Isla del Coco. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Until 2030 the ulcer mortality will have a growing trend as estimated by the World Health Organization. Detection of countries and population groups with high risks for the ulcer mortality is possible using forecast method. The authors made a forecast of mortality rate from complicated ulcer disease in males and females and their age groups (15-24, 25-34, 35-54, 5574, over 75, 15 - over 75) in our country. The study included data of the World Health Organization Database from 1991 to 2012. The work analyzed absolute all-Ukrainian numbers ofpersons of both genders died from the ulcer causes (К25-К27 coded by the 10th International Diseases Classification). The relative mortality per 100 000 of alive persons of the same age was calculated de novo. The analysis of distribution laws and their estimation presents a trend of growth of the relative mortality. A remarkable increase of deaths from the ulcer disease is observed in males and females of the age after 55 years old. After the age of 75 years this trend is more expressed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background. Prognosis of PD is variable. Most studies show higher mortality rates in PD patients compared to the general population. Clinical and epidemiologic factors predicting mortality are poorly understood. Methods. Clinical and epidemiologic features including patient history and physical, functional, and cognitive scores were collected from a hospital-based cohort of PD patients using standardized protocols and clinical scales. Data on comorbidities and mortality were collected on follow-up. Results. During a mean follow-up of 4.71 years (range 1–10), 43 (20.9%) of the 206 patients died. Those who died had higher mean age at disease onset than those still alive at the last follow-up (67.7 years versus 56.3 years; p<0.01). In the univariate analysis, age at baseline was associated with decreased survival. In the adjusted Cox proportional hazards model, age at disease onset and race/ethnicity were predictors of mortality. Conclusions. Late age at disease onset and advanced chronological age are associated with decreased survival. Comorbidities and PD characteristics were not associated with decreased survival in our sample. Race/ethnicity was found in our study to be associated with increased hazard of mortality. Our findings indicate the importance of studying survival among different populations of PD patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims To test a simulation model, the MICADO model, for estimating the long-term effects of interventions in people with and without diabetes. Methods The MICADO model includes micro- and macrovascular diseases in relation to their risk factors. The strengths of this model are its population scope and the possibility to assess parameter uncertainty using probabilistic sensitivity analyses. Outcomes include incidence and prevalence of complications, quality of life, costs and cost-effectiveness. We externally validated MICADO's estimates of micro- and macrovascular complications in a Dutch cohort with diabetes (n = 498 400) by comparing these estimates with national and international empirical data. Results For the annual number of people undergoing amputations, MICADO's estimate was 592 (95% interquantile range 291-842), which compared well with the registered number of people with diabetes-related amputations in the Netherlands (728). The incidence of end-stage renal disease estimated using the MICADO model was 247 people (95% interquartile range 120-363), which was also similar to the registered incidence in the Netherlands (277 people). MICADO performed well in the validation of macrovascular outcomes of population-based cohorts, while it had more difficulty in reflecting a highly selected trial population. Conclusions Validation by comparison with independent empirical data showed that the MICADO model simulates the natural course of diabetes and its micro- and macrovascular complications well. As a population-based model, MICADO can be applied for projections as well as scenario analyses to evaluate the long-term (cost-)effectiveness of population-level interventions targeting diabetes and its complications in the Netherlands or similar countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Little is known about the interaction between socio-economic status and 'protected characteristics' in Scotland. This study aimed to examine whether differences in mortality were moderated by interactions with social class or deprivation. The practical value was to pinpoint population groups for priority action on health inequality reduction and health improvement rather than a sole focus on the most deprived socioeconomic groups. Methods: We used data from the Scottish Longitudinal Study which captures a 5.3 % sample of Scotland and links the censuses of 1991, 2001 and 2011. Hazard ratios for mortality were estimated for those protected characteristics with sufficient deaths using Cox proportional hazards models and through the calculation of European age- standardised mortality rates. Inequality was measured by calculating the Relative Index of Inequality (RII). Results: The Asian population had a polarised distribution across deprivation deciles and was more likely to be in social class I and II. Those reporting disablement were more likely to live in deprived areas, as were those raised Roman Catholic, whilst those raised as Church of Scotland or as 'other Christian' were less likely to. Those aged 35-54 years were the least likely to live in deprived areas and were most likely to be in social class I and II. Males had higher mortality than females, and disabled people had higher mortality than non-disabled people, across all deprivation deciles and social classes. Asian males and females had generally lower mortality hazards than majority ethnic ('White') males and females although the estimates for Asian males and females were imprecise in some social classes and deprivation deciles. Males and females who reported their raised religion as Roman Catholic or reported 'No religion' had generally higher mortality than other groups, although the estimates for 'Other religion' and 'Other Christian' were less precise. Using both the area deprivation and social class distributions for the whole population, relative mortality inequalities were usually greater amongst those who did not report being disabled, Asians and females aged 35-44 years, males by age, and people aged <75 years. The RIIs for the raised religious groups were generally similar or too imprecise to comment on differences. Conclusions: Mortality in Scotland is higher in the majority population, disabled people, males, those reporting being raised as Roman Catholics or with 'no religion' and lower in Asians, females and other religious groups. Relative inequalities in mortality were lower in disabled than nondisabled people, the majority population, females, and greatest in young adults. From the perspective of intersectionality theory, our results clearly demonstrate the importance of representing multiple identities in research on health inequalities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Mortality for children with congenital heart disease (CHD) has declined with improved surgical techniques and neonatal screening; however, as these patients live longer, accurate estimates of the prevalence of adults with CHD are lacking. Methods: To determine the prevalence and mortality trends of adults with CHD, we combined National Vital Statistics System data and National Health Interview Survey data using an integrative systems model to determine the prevalence of recalled CHD as a function of age, sex, and year (by recalled CHD, we mean positive response to the question "has a doctor told you that (name) has congenital heart disease?", which is a conservative lower-bound estimate of CHD prevalence). We used Human Mortality Database estimates and US Census Department projections of the US population to calculate the CHD-prevalent population by age, sex, and year. The primary outcome was prevalence of recalled CHD in adults from 1970 to 2050; the secondary outcomes were birth prevalence and mortality rates by sex and women of childbearing age (15-49 years). Results: The birth prevalence of recalled CHD in 2010 for males was 3.29 per 1,000 (95 % uncertainty interval (UI) 2.8-3.6), and for females was 3.23 per 1,000 (95 % UI 2.3-3.6). From 1968 to 2010, mortality among zero to 51-week-olds declined from 170 to 53 per 100,000 person years. The estimated number of adults (age 20-64 years) with recalled CHD in 1968 was 118,000 (95 % UI 72,000-150,000). By 2010, there was an increase by a factor of 2.3 (95 % UI 2.2-2.6), to 273,000 (95 % UI 190,000-330,000). There will be an estimated 510,000 (95 % UI: 400,000-580,000) in 2050. The prevalence of adults with recalled CHD will begin to plateau around the year 2050. In 2010, there were 134,000 (95 % UI 69,000-160,000) reproductive-age females (age 15-49 years) with recalled CHD in the United States. Conclusion: Mortality rates have decreased in infants and the prevalence of adults with CHD has increased but will slow down around 2050. This population requires adult medical systems with providers experienced in the care of adult CHD patients, including those familiar with reproduction in women with CHD. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Identifying those at increased risk of death during TB treatment is a priority in resource-constrained settings. We performed this study to determine predictors of mortality during TB treatment. Methods: We performed a retrospective analysis of a TB surveillance population in a high HIV prevalence area that was recorded in ETR.net (Electronic Tuberculosis Register). Adult TB cases initiated TB treatment from 2007 through 2009 in Khayelitsha, South Africa. Cox proportional hazards models were used to identify risk factors for death (after multiple imputations for missing data). Model selection was performed using Akaike's Information Criterion to obtain the most relevant predictors of death. Results: Of 16,209 adult TB cases, 851 (5.3 %) died during TB treatment. In all TB cases, advancing age, co-infection with HIV, a prior history of TB and the presence of both pulmonary and extra-pulmonary TB were independently associated with an increasing hazard of death. In HIV-infected TB cases, advancing age and female gender were independently associated with an increasing hazard of death. Increasing CD4 counts and antiretroviral treatment during TB treatment were protective against death. In HIV-uninfected TB cases, advancing age was independently associated with death, whereas smear-positive disease was protective. Conclusion: We identified several independent predictors of death during TB treatment in resource-constrained settings. Our findings inform resource-constrained settings about certain subgroups of TB patients that should be targeted to improve mortality during TB treatment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: United Nations member states have agreed to reduce premature cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality 25% by 2025. Global CVD risk factor targets have been recommended. We produced estimates to show how selected risk factor reduction would affect CVD mortality for different regions and countries.Methods and Results: We used mortality, risk factor, and relative risk data from the Global Burden of Disease, Risk Factors, and Injuries (GBD) 2013 study to project CVD mortality for 188 countries up to the year 2025. We disaggregated observed CVD mortality in 1990 and 2013 into deaths attributable and unattributable to hypertension, tobacco smoking, diabetes mellitus, and obesity using an age- and sex-specific population-attributable fraction. Risk factors were projected to 2025 assuming that current trends continue. Counterfactual scenarios were then constructed reflecting CVD premature mortality if United Nations risk factor targets are achieved in the year 2025, adjusting for joint effects of risk factors. We estimate 7.8 million premature CVD deaths in 2025 if current risk factor trends continue. Premature CVD deaths would be reduced to 5.7 million if these risk factors targets are achieved as a result of a 26% reduction for men and a 23% reduction for women in the global risk of premature CVD death. Globally, decreasing the prevalence of hypertension accounted for the largest risk reduction, followed by a reduction in tobacco smoking for men and obesity for women, but these results varied by region. The impact of meeting all risk factor targets on CVD mortality varied widely by region and sex.Conclusions: The United Nations target of a 25% reduction in premature CVD mortality by the year 2025 appears achievable for some countries, but more aggressive risk factor targets may be required if all regions are to reach this goal. Without these reductions in CVD risk factors, many countries will see no change or even an increase in premature CVD mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Here we propose the idea that the success of an argument in favor of an issue position should depend on whether the argument resonates with the audience’s values. Now consider two groups, one of which has a broader set of values than the other. We develop a mathematical model to investigate how this difference in broadness of values may drive a change on the population level towards positions in line with the more narrow set of values. The model is motivated by the empirical finding that conservative morality rests equally on moral foundations that are individualizing (harm and fairness) and binding (purity, authority, and ingroup), whereas liberal morality relies mainly on the individualizing moral foundations. The model then predicts that, under certain conditions, the whole population will tend to move towards positions on moral issues (e.g., same-sex marriage) that are supported by individualizing moral foundations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

High levels of arsenic exposure have been associated with increases in cardiovascular disease risk. However, studies of arsenic's effects at lower exposure levels are limited and few prospective studies exist in the United States using long-term arsenic exposure biomarkers. We conducted a prospective analysis of the association between toenail arsenic and cardiovascular disease mortality using longitudinal data collected on 3939 participants in the New Hampshire Skin Cancer Study. Using Cox proportional hazard models adjusted for potential confounders, we estimated hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals associated with the risk of death from any cardiovascular disease, ischemic heart disease, and stroke, in relation to natural-log transformed toenail arsenic concentrations. In this US population, although we observed no overall association, arsenic exposure measured from toenail clipping samples was related to an increased risk of ischemic heart disease mortality among long-term smokers (as reported at baseline), with increased hazard ratios among individuals with ≥ 31 total smoking years (HR: 1.52, 95% CI: 1.02, 2.27), ≥ 30 pack-years (HR: 1.66, 95% CI: 1.12, 2.45), and among current smokers (HR: 1.69, 95% CI: 1.04, 2.75). These results are consistent with evidence from more highly exposed populations suggesting a synergistic relationship between arsenic exposure and smoking on health outcomes and support a role for lower-level arsenic exposure in ischemic heart disease mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Initial approaches to certain indicators and reports related to mortality, birth, fertility, education, emigration, annual population growth, a retrospective look at the 2001 Census and reflections on the 2012 Census provide a global perspective on the current state of the population in Bolivia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The effect of statins on all-cause mortality in the general population has been estimated as 0.86 (95%CI 0.79-0.94) for primary prevention. Reported values in HIV-infected individuals have been discordant. We assessed the impact of statin-based primary prevention on all-cause mortality among HIV-infected individuals. Methods: Patients were selected among controls from a multicentre nested case-control study on the risk of myocardial infarction. Patients with prior cardiovascular or cerebrovascular disorders were not eligible. Potential confounders, including variables that were associated either with statin use and/or death occurrence and statin use were evaluated within the last 3 months prior to inclusion in the case-control study. Using an intention to continue approach, multiple imputation of missing data, Cox’s proportional hazard models or propensity based weighting, the impact of statins on the 7-year all-cause mortality was evaluated. Results: Among 1,776 HIV-infected individuals, 138 (8%) were statins users. During a median follow-up of 53 months, 76 deaths occurred, including 6 in statin users. Statin users had more cardiovascular risk factors and a lower CD4 T cell nadir than statin non-users. In univariable analysis, the death rate was higher in statins users (11% vs 7%, HR 1.22, 95%CI 0.53-2.82). The confounders accounted for were age, HIV transmission group, current CD4 T cell count, haemoglobin level, body mass index, smoking status, anti-HCV antibodies positivity, HBs antigen positivity, diabetes and hypertension. In the Cox multivariable model the estimated hazard ratio of statin on all-cause mortality was estimated as 0.86 (95%CI 0.34-2.19) and it was 0.83 (95%CI 0.51-1.35) using inverse probability treatment weights. Conclusion: The impact of statin for primary prevention appears similar in HIV-infected individuals and in the general population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent epidemiologic evidence suggests that prediagnosis physical activity is associated with survival in women diagnosed with breast cancer. However, few data exist for racial/ethnic groups other than non-Latina whites. To examine the association between prediagnosis recreational physical activity and mortality by race/ethnicity, we pooled data from the California Breast Cancer Survivorship Consortium for 3 population-based case-control studies of breast cancer patients (n = 4,608) diagnosed from 1994 to 2002 and followed up through 2010. Cox proportional hazards models provided estimates of the relative hazard ratio for mortality from all causes, breast cancer, and causes other than breast cancer associated with recent recreational physical activity (i.e., in the 10 years before diagnosis). Among 1,347 ascertained deaths, 826 (61%) were from breast cancer. Compared with women with the lowest level of recent recreational physical activity, those with the highest level had a marginally decreased risk of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio = 0.88, 95% confidence interval: 0.76, 1.01) and a statistically significant decreased risk of mortality from causes other than breast cancer (hazard ratio = 0.63, 95% confidence interval: 0.49, 0.80), and particularly from cardiovascular disease. No association was observed for breast cancer-specific mortality. These risk patterns did not differ by race/ethnicity (non-Latina white, African American, Latina, and Asian American). Our findings suggest that physical activity is beneficial for overall survival regardless of race/ethnicity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The goal was to find out whether much of the variation in mortality between the 430 Norwegian municipalities could be attributed to socio-demographic characteristics of the population − operating through individual- or aggregate-level mechanisms. Two-level discrete-time hazard models were estimated for women and men at age 60−89 in 2000−2008, using registers covering the entire population. Year, age and a municipality-level random term were included in the first step. When socio-demographic characteristics of the individual and others in the municipality were added, the variance of the random term was reduced by 73−80% almost exclusively because of aggregate-level effects. Policy implications of these findings are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Despite the large body of research on racial/ethnic disparities in health, there are limited data on health disparities in Caribbean origin populations. This review aims to analyze and synthesize published literature on the disparities in diabetes mellitus (DM) and its complications among Afro-Caribbean populations. Methods: A detailed protocol, including a comprehensive search strategy, was developed and used to identify potentially relevant studies. Identified studies were then screened for eligibility using pre-specified inclusion and exclusion criteria. An extraction form was developed to chart data and collate study characteristics including methods and main findings. Charted information was tagged by disparity indicators and thematic analysis performed. Disparity indicators evaluated include ethnicity, sex, age, socioeconomic status, disability and geographic location. Gaps in the literature were identified and extrapolated into a gap map. Results: A total of 1009 diabetes related articles/manuscripts, published between 1972 and 2013, were identified and screened. Forty-three studies met inclusion criteria for detailed analysis. Most studies were conducted in the United Kingdom, Trinidad and Tobago and Jamaica, and used a cross-sectional study design. Overall, studies reported a higher prevalence of DM among Caribbean Blacks compared to West African Blacks and Caucasians but lower when compared to South Asian origin groups. Morbidity from diabetes-related complications was highest in persons with low socioeconomic status. Gap analysis showed limited research data reporting diabetes incidence by sex and socioeconomic status. No published literature was found on disability status or sexual orientation as it relates to diabetes burden or complications. Prevalence and morbidity were the most frequently reported outcomes. Conclusion: Literature on diabetes health disparities in Caribbean origin populations is limited. Future research should address these knowledge gaps and develop approaches to reduce them. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Territory choice is likely to include sequential sampling at prospective sites, a decision rule for accepting a site, and, when available, use of prior experience. Here, I consider the threshold rule (Real 1990 American Naturalist, 138, 901-917) in which individuals choose the first option that exceeds a preset level of quality and ask how competition for sites limits the choosiness of individuals applying the threshold rule. I then investigate how the addition of site fidelity further influences the evolution of individual choosiness via a threshold rule., I develop an individual-based model that uses a genetic algorithm approach to search for the optimal threshold as an evolutionary stable strategy ( ESS) and equilibrium population size. Territory quality (i.e. likelihood of reproductive success) is spatially heterogeneous. Individuals either use the acceptance threshold alone or together with site fidelity. In the latter strategy, successful breeders that survive remain at their former site as incumbents, whereas unsuccessful breeders move to a new site., Results indicate greater competition for sites increases the acceptance threshold and reduces choosiness even when individuals have perfect information from sampled sites. Incumbency, via site fidelity at successful territories, leads to the evolution of relatively unselective behaviour, the degree to which is influenced by the level of adult survival., Competition for sites and site pre-emption, rather than energetic or mortality costs, may drive the evolution of choosiness. The analysis also highlights the importance of considering coexisting strategies used by individuals and not simply the population. For instance, site fidelity, as a coexisting strategy, can result in an ESS acceptance threshold that is no better than random selection, and yet still safeguard populations from extinction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The prevalence of thyroid cancer has increased very rapidly in Korea. However, there is no published report focusing on thyroid cancer mortality in Korea. In this study, we aimed to evaluate standardized thyroid cancer mortality using data from Statistics Korea (the Statistical Office of Korea). Methods: Population and mortality data from 1985 to 2010 were obtained from Statistics Korea. Age-standardized rates of thyroid cancer mortality were calculated according to the standard population of Korea, as well as World Health Organization (WHO) standard population and International Cancer Survival Standard (ICSS) population weights. Results: The crude thyroid cancer mortality rate increased from 0.1 to 0.7 per 100,000 between 1985 and 2010. The pattern was the same for both sexes. The age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) for thyroid cancer for Korean resident registration population increased from 0.19 to 0.67 between 1985 and 2000. However, it decreased slightly, from 0.67 to 0.55, between 2000 and 2010. When mortality was adjusted using the WHO standard population and ICSS population weights, the ASMR similarly increased until 2000, and then decreased between 2000 and 2010. Conclusion: Thyroid cancer mortality increased until 2000 in Korea. It started to decrease from 2000. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The inexorable demographic momentum of the global human population is rapidly eroding Earth's life-support system. There are consequently more frequent calls to address environmental problems by advocating further reductions in human fertility. To examine how quickly this could lead to a smaller human population, we used scenario-based matrix modeling to project the global population to the year 2100. Assuming a continuation of current trends in mortality reduction, even a rapid transition to a worldwide one-child policy leads to a population similar to today's by 2100. Even a catastrophic mass mortality event of 2 billion deaths over a hypothetical 5-y window in the mid-215t century would still yield around 8.5 billion people by 2100. In the absence of catastrophe or large fertility reductions (to fewer than two children per female worldwide), the greatest threats to ecosystems-as measured by regional projections within the 35 global Biodiversity Hotspots-indicate that Africa and South Asia will experience the greatest human pressures on future ecosystems. Humanity's large demographic momentum means that there are no easy policy levers to change the size of the human population substantially over coming decades, short of extreme and rapid reductions in female fertility; it will take centuries, and the long-term target remains unclear. However, some reduction could be achieved by midcentury and lead to hundreds of millions fewer people to feed. More immediate results for sustain-ability would emerge from policies and technologies that reverse rising consumption of natural resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Do vanguard populations open new frontiers of survival and longevity that will eventually be reached by others? The main aim of this study is to identify the extent to which the non-vanguard populations in Finland, Norway, and Sweden might follow the mortality trajectories of the vanguard groups in these countries for different age ranges and for the major causes of death. The results show no systematic convergence between vanguard and non-vanguard sub-populations. On the contrary, they confirm the theory whereby each major epidemiological development initially gives rise to divergence in mortality trends. Our study found that at the sub-national level, rather than simply following (with a certain time lag) the same path as the vanguard groups, non-vanguard groups have their own pathways to low mortality which are related to specific determinants of mortality change. The study also found that a long time is needed for the non-vanguard group to attain the mortality levels already reached by the vanguard group at the start of the observation period. This is notably the case for the treatment and prevention of cardiovascular diseases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

On 1 January 2014, the population of France was 66 million (of which 63.9 million in metropolitan France), an increase of 0.42% with respect to the previous year. In 2012, 180,000 residence permits were issued to immigrants from countries outside the European Economic Area, a majority of these to women. Half of the permits were issued for family reasons, and a quarter for education. Fertility decreased slightly, to 1.99 children per woman. As the proportion of women of reproductive age in the population also fell and the total population increased, this fertility decline was associated with a decrease in the birth rate in 2013. After a slight increase in 2012, the number of marriages fell once again: according to provisional data, 231,000 marriages were registered in 2013. Marriage was opened to same-sex couples on 17 May 2013, and 7,000 same-sex marriages were registered between May and December 2013. A total of 168,000 PACS (civil unions) were registered in 2013. The number of deaths in 2013 is provisionally estimated at 572,000, and in metropolitan France the number surpassed 560,000. Women's life expectancy was 85.0 years and that of men was 78.7 years, a gap of 6.3 years, down slightly with respect to 2012. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

: Jiong Li and colleagues examine mortality rates in children who lost a parent before 18 years old compared with those who did not using population-based data from Denmark, Sweden, and Finland. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Geographical inequalities in mortality across Europe may be influenced by migration between regions. The relationship between age- and sex-standardised death rates, 2008-2010, and population change resulting from migration 2000-2010, was analysed in 250 'Nomenclature of Statistical Territorial Units' (NUTS) level 2 regions in 26 European countries. Across Europe death rates were significantly higher in regions experiencing population loss. This association continued after adjustment for 2005 household income among all regions and Western regions but not among Eastern areas. This analysis suggests migration could contribute to Europe's persistent inequalities in mortality, and highlights the problems of Eastern regions with the highest death rates, lowest incomes and declining populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives. We assessed diabetes-related mortality for American Indians and Alaska Natives (AI/ANs) and Whites. Methods. Study populations were non-Hispanic AI/AN and White persons in Indian Health Service (IHS) Contract Health Service Delivery Area counties; Hispanics were excluded. We used 1990 to 2009 death certificate data linked to IHS patient registration records to identify AI/AN decedents aged 20 years or older. We examined disparities and trends in mortality related to diabetes as an underlying cause of death (COD) and as a multiple COD. Results. After increasing between 1990 and 1999, rates of diabetes as an underlying COD and a multiple COD subsequently decreased in both groups. However, between 2000 and 2009, age-adjusted rates of diabetes as an underlying COD and a multiple COD remained 2.5 to 3.5 times higher among AI/AN persons than among Whites for all age groups (20-44, 45-54, 55-64, 65-74, and ≥75 years), both sexes, and every IHS region except Alaska. Conclusions. Declining trends in diabetes-related mortality in both AI/AN and White populations are consistent with recent improvements in their health status. Reducing persistent disparities in diabetes mortality will require developing effective approaches to not only control but also prevent diabetes among AI/AN populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims: The majority of prospective studies on alcohol use and mortality risk indicate that non-drinkers are at increased risk of death compared to moderate drinkers. This article investigates the association between middle-aged women’s alcohol use and mortality, controlling for socio-demographic and health variables. An association between alcohol use and hospital in-patient care is also analysed. Methods: Baseline data were collected during 1995–2000 in a population-based cohort of 6917 women aged 50–59 years living in southern Sweden, the Women’s Health in Lund Area (WHILA). After 9 years, a register follow-up was performed from the National cause-of-death register and the Swedish hospital discharge register. Cox proportional hazards regression were used to analyse differences in survival. Results: During the observation period, 201 (2.9%) women died. In a crude model, non-drinkers had a significantly increased risk for death. When including socio-demographic predictors in the model, there was a strong indication that non-drinkers were at increased risk for death compared to moderate drinkers. Adding health predictors, not drinking alcohol was no longer a risk factor for death. Further, analyses of in-patient care indicate that non-drinkers had poorer health during their entire adult life. Conclusions: This study underlines the importance of including health status at base-line when prospectively studying the association between alcohol use and mortality, otherwise moderate alcohol consumption may appear more beneficial than is the case. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Background: Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) remains a major cause of mortality in the United Kingdom. Yet predictions of future CHD mortality are potentially problematic due to population ageing and increase in obesity and diabetes. Here we explore future projections of CHD mortality in England & Wales under two contrasting future trend assumptions. Methods: In scenario A, we used the conventional counterfactual scenario that the last-observed CHD mortality rates from 2011 would persist unchanged to 2030. The future number of deaths was calculated by applying those rates to the 2012–2030 population estimates. In scenario B, we assumed that the recent falling trend in CHD mortality rates would continue. Using Lee-Carter and Bayesian Age Period Cohort (BAPC) models, we projected the linear trends up to 2030. We validate our methods using past data to predict mortality from 2002–2011. Then, we computed the error between observed and projected values. Results: In scenario A, assuming that 2011 mortality rates stayed constant by 2030, the number of CHD deaths would increase 62% or approximately 39,600 additional deaths. In scenario B, assuming recent declines continued, the BAPC model (the model with lowest error) suggests the number of deaths will decrease by 56%, representing approximately 36,200 fewer deaths by 2030. Conclusions: The decline in CHD mortality has been reasonably continuous since 1979, and there is little reason to believe it will soon halt. The commonly used assumption that mortality will remain constant from 2011 therefore appears slightly dubious. By contrast, using the BAPC model and assuming continuing mortality falls offers a more plausible prediction of future trends. Thus, despite population ageing, the number of CHD deaths might halve again between 2011 and 2030. This has implications for how the potential benefits of future cardiovascular strategies might best be calculated and presented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Diuraphis noxia is a newly established alien pest in the Czech Republic. There were two population explosions during the period 1993-2012. A successful overwintering of the anholocyclic populations of D. noxia was the cause of a population explosion in the oncoming growth season. Viviparous parthenogenetic females of the anholocyclic populations and diapausing eggs of holocyclic populations could overwinter at the same time. Analysis of the course of winter temperatures showed that a complete winter mortality of anholocyclic populations depended mainly on the duration of the freezing period, when temperature dropped below −5°C, and on the intensity of the frost. We proposed the cumulative effective freeze (in minus degree days) as a key parameter for the aphid anholocyclic population's mortality during overwintering. This parameter equalled −10.1 degree days for relatively warm winter period 2006-2007, whereas in the relatively cold winter period of 2009-2010, this parameter reached −87.1 DD, which caused complete mortality of anholocyclic populations. A cumulative effective freeze could be used for short-time prognosis of D. noxia population explosion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background This paper describes trends in colorectal cancer incidence, survival and mortality from 1994 to 2010 in Ireland prior to the introduction of population-based screening. Methods We examined incidence (National Cancer Registry Ireland (NCRI) and mortality (Central Statistics Office) from 1994 to 2010. Age standardised rates (ASR) for incidence and mortality have been calculated, weighted by the European standard population. Annual percentage change was calculated in addition to testing for linear trends in treatment and case fraction of early and late stage disease. Relative survival was calculated considering deaths from all causes. Results The colorectal cancer ASR was 63.7 per 100,000 in males and 38.7 per 100,000 in females in 2010. There was little change in the ASR over time in either sex, or when colon and rectal cancers were considered separately; however the number of incident cancers increased significantly during 1994-2010 (1752 to 2298). The case fractions of late stage (III/IV) colon and rectal cancers rose significantly over time. One and 5 year relative survival improved for both sexes between the periods 1994-2008. Colorectal cancer mortality ASRs decreased annually from 1994-2009 by 1.8% (95% CI -2.2, -1.4). Rectal cancer mortality ASRs rose annually by 2.4% (95% CI 1.1, 3.6) and 2.8% (95% CI 1.2, 4.4) in males and females respectively. Conclusions Increases in late-stage disease and rectal cancer mortality demonstrate an urgent need for colorectal cancer screening. However, the narrow age range at which screening is initially being rolled-out in Ireland means that the full potential for reductions in late-stage cancers and incidence and mortality are unlikely to be achieved. While it is possible that the observed increase in rectal cancer mortality may be partly an artefact of cause of death misclassification, it could also be explained by variations in treatment and adherence to best practice guidelines; further investigation is warranted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Consider a uniformly mixing population which grows as a super-critical linear birth and death process. At some time an infectious disease (of SIR or SEIR type) is introduced by one individual being infected from outside. It is shown that three different scenarios may occur: (i) an epidemic never takes off, (ii) an epidemic gets going and grows but at a slower rate than the community thus still being negligible in terms of population fractions, or (iii) an epidemic takes off and grows quicker than the community eventually leading to an endemic equilibrium. Depending on the parameter values, either scenario (i) is the only possibility, both scenarios (i) and (ii) are possible, or scenarios (i) and (iii) are possible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Epidemiologic studies have reported conflicting results on the relationship between daytime napping and mortality risk, and there are few data on the potential association in the British population. We investigated the associations between daytime napping and all-cause or cause-specific mortality in the European Prospective Investigation Into Cancer-Norfolk study, a British population-based cohort study. Among the 16,374 men and women who answered questions on napping habits between 1998 and 2000, a total of 3,251 died during the 13-year follow-up. Daytime napping was associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality (for napping less than 1 hour per day on average, hazard ratio = 1.14, 95% confidence interval: 1.02, 1.27; for napping 1 hour or longer per day on average, hazard ratio = 1.32, 95% confidence interval: 1.04, 1.68), independent of age, sex, social class, educational level, marital status, employment status, body mass index, physical activity level, smoking status, alcohol intake, depression, self-reported general health, use of hypnotic drugs or other medications, time spent in bed at night, and presence of preexisting health conditions. This association was more pronounced for death from respiratory diseases (for napping less than 1 hour, hazard ratio = 1.40, 95% confidence interval: 0.95, 2.05; for napping 1 hour or more, hazard ratio = 2.56, 95% confidence interval: 1.34, 4.86) and in individuals 65 years of age or younger. Excessive daytime napping might be a useful marker of underlying health risk, particularly of respiratory problems, especially among those 65 years of age or younger. Further research is required to clarify the nature of the observed association. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Background Hip fracture has a high mortality rate, but the actual level of long-term excess mortality and its impact on population-wide mortality remains controversial. The present prospective study investigated short- and long-term excess mortality after hip fractures with adjustment of other risk factors. We calculated the population attributable risk proportion (PARP) to assess the impact of each risk factor on excess mortality. Methods We recruited 217 elders with hip fractures and 215 age- and sex-matched patients without fractures from the geriatric department of the same hospital. The mean follow-up time was 46.1 months (range: 35 to 57 months). We recorded data on 55 covariates, including baseline details about health, function, and bone mineral density. We used the multivariate Cox proportional hazards model to analyze hazard ratios (HRs) of short-term (<12 months followup) and long-term (⩾12 months follow-up) excess mortality for each covariate and calculated their PARP. Results Patients with hip fractures had a higher short-term mortality than non-fractured patients, and the long-term excess mortality associated with hip fracture remained high. The significant risk factors for short-term mortality were hip fracture, comorbidities, and lower (below cutoff) Mini Mental State Examination score with HRs of 2.4, 2.3, and 2.3, respectively. Their PARPs were 44.7%, 38.1%, and 34.3%, respectively. The significant risk factors for long-term mortality were hip fracture (HR: 2.7; PARP: 48.0%), lower T-score (HR: 3.3; PARP: 36.2%), lower body mass index (HR: 2.5; PARP: 42.8%), comorbidities (HR: 2.1; PARP: 34.8%), difficulty in activities of daily living (HR: 1.9; PARP: 31.8%), and smoking (HR: 2.5; PARP: 19.2%). Conclusions After comprehensive adjustment, hip fracture was a significant risk factor and contributed the most to long-term as well as short-term excess mortality. Its adequate prevention and treatment should be targeted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective The genetic polymorphism concerning the β3-subunit of platelet integrin receptor glycoprotein IIIa is held responsible for enhanced binding of adhesive proteins resulting in increased thrombogenic potential. Whether it is associated with mortality, HbA1c or platelet volume is tested prospectively in an epidemiological cohort. Research design and methods Population-based Cooperative Health Research in the Region of Augsburg (KORA) S4- Survey (N = 4,028) was investigated for prognostic value of PLA1A2-polymorphism regarding all-cause mortality, correlation with HbA1c, and mean platelet volume. Multivariate analysis was performed to investigate association between genotype and key variables. Results Prevalence of thrombogenic allele variant PLA2 was 15.0%. Multivariate analysis revealed no association between PLA1A2 polymorphism and mortality in the KORA-cohort. HbA1c was a prognostic marker of mortality in non-diabetic persons resulting in J-shaped risk curve with dip at HbA1c = 5.5% (37 mmol/mol), confirming previous findings regarding aged KORA-S4 participants (55-75 years). PLA1A2 was significantly associated with elevated HbA1c levels in diabetic patients (N = 209) and reduced mean platelet volume in general population. In non-diabetic participants (N = 3,819), carriers of PLA2 allele variant presenting with HbA1c > 5.5% (37 mmol/mol) showed higher relative risk of mortality with increasing HbA1c. Conclusion PLA1A2 polymorphism is associated with mortality in participants with HbA1c ranging from 5.5% (37 mmol/mol) to 6.5% (48 mmol/mol). Maintenance of euglycemic control and antiplatelet therapy are therefore regarded as effective primary prevention in this group. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Prevalence estimates of drug use, or of its consequences, are considered important in many contexts and may have substantial influence over public policy. However, it is rarely possible to simply count the relevant individuals, in particular when the defining characteristics might be illegal, as in the drug use case. Consequently methods are needed to estimate the size of such partly 'hidden' populations, and many such methods have been developed and used within epidemiology including studies of alcohol and drug use. Here we introduce a method appropriate for estimating the size of human populations given a single source of data, for example entries in a health-care registry. Methods The setup is the following: during a fixed time-period, e.g. a year, individuals belonging to the target population have a non-zero probability of being "registered". Each individual might be registered multiple times and the time-points of the registrations are recorded. Assuming that the population is closed and that the probability of being registered at least once is constant, we derive a family of maximum likelihood (ML) estimators of total population size. We study the ML estimator using Monte Carlo simulations and delimit the range of cases where it is useful. In particular we investigate the effect of making the population heterogeneous with respect to probability of being registered. Results The new estimator is asymptotically unbiased and we show that high precision estimates can be obtained for samples covering as little as 25% of the total population size. However, if the total population size is small (say in the order of 500) a larger fraction needs to be sampled to achieve reliable estimates. Further we show that the estimator give reliable estimates even when individuals differ in the probability of being registered. We also compare the ML estimator to an estimator known as Chao's estimator and show that the latter can have a substantial bias when applied to epidemiological data. Conclusions The population size estimator suggested herein complements existing methods and is less sensitive to certain types of dependencies typical in epidemiological data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relative income–health hypothesis postulates that income distribution is an important determinant of population health, but the age and sex patterns of this association are not well known. We tested the relative income–health hypothesis using panel data collected for 21 developed countries over 30 years. Net of trends in gross domestic product per head and unobserved period and country factors, income inequality measured by the Gini index is positively associated with the mortality of males and females at ages 1–14 and 15–49, and with the mortality of females at ages 65–89 albeit less strongly than for the younger age groups. These findings suggest that policies to decrease income inequality may improve health, especially that of children and young-to-middle-aged men and women. The mechanisms behind the income inequality–mortality association remain unknown and should be the focus of future research. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

When pension systems are contrasted it is common to use simplified demographic models, such as overlapping generation models with time-invariant mortality. Breaking with this tradition, we show that for a population with increasing longevity, the pay-as-you-go (PAYG) system may be more advantageous than a funded system (FS). Increasing longevity favours the PAYG system because for the workers living longer at retirement than current retirees, it is less costly to fund others’ current pensions than their own. At present, the effect amounts to around 15 per cent in terms of the dependency ratio, or six more years at work in the FS, or 1 per cent per annum in terms of the real interest rate. In most developed countries the effect substantially exceeds that of the usually studied biological interest rate. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

A substantial number of epidemiological studies have demonstrated an association between atmospheric conditions and human all-cause as well as cause-specific mortality. However, most research has been performed in industrialised countries, whereas little is known about the atmosphere-mortality relationship in developing countries. Especially with regard to modifications from non-atmospheric conditions and intra-population differences, there is a substantial research deficit. Within the scope of this study, we aimed to investigate the effects of heat in a multi-stratified manner, distinguishing by the cause of death, age, gender, location and socio-economic status. We examined 22,840 death counts using semi-parametric Poisson regression models, adjusting for a multitude of potential confounders. Although Bangladesh is dominated by an increase of mortality with decreasing (equivalent) temperatures over a wide range of values, the findings demonstrated the existence of partly strong heat effects at the upper end of the temperature distribution. Moreover, the study demonstrated that the strength of these heat effects varied considerably over the investigated subgroups. The adverse effects of heat were particularly pronounced for males and the elderly above 65 years. Moreover, we found increased adverse effects of heat for urban areas and for areas with a high socio-economic status. The increase in, and acceleration of, urbanisation in Bangladesh, as well as the rapid aging of the population and the increase in non-communicable diseases, suggest that the relevance of heat-related mortality might increase further. Considering rising global temperatures, the adverse effects of heat might be further aggravated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Age-period-cohort (APC) models are widely used for studying time trends of disease incidence or mortality. Model identifiability has become less of a problem with Bayesian APC models. These models are usually based on random walk (RW1, RW2) smoothing priors. For long and complex time series and for long predicted periods, these models as such may not be adequate. We present two extensions for the APC models. First, we introduce flexible interactions between the age, period and cohort effects based on a two-dimensional conditional autoregressive smoothing prior on the age/period plane. Our second extension uses autoregressive integrated (ARI) models to provide reasonable long-term predictions. To illustrate the utility of our model framework, we provide stochastic predictions for the Finnish male and female population, in 2010-2050. For that, we first study and forecast all-cause male and female mortality in Finland, 1878-2050, showing that using an interaction term is needed for fitting and interpreting the observed data. We then provide population predictions using a cohort component model, which also requires predictions for fertility and migration. As our main conclusion, ARI models have better properties for predictions than the simple RW models do, but mixing these prediction models with RW1 or RW2 smoothing priors for observed periods leads to a model that is not fully consistent. Further research with our model framework will concentrate on using a more consistent model for smoothing and prediction, such as autoregressive integrated moving average models with state-space methods or Gaussian process priors. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Demographic and ecophysiological data for the endangered New Caledonian conifer, Araucaria muelleri ( Araucariaceae), were analysed to: (i) evaluate population viability in relation to site conditions and human impacts; and (ii) advance our understanding of how stress-tolerator plant functional traits affect the population dynamic behaviour and conservation requirements of long-lived tree species. Growth, survivorship and recruitment in four A. muelleri populations were monitored across 9 years. Demographic rates were analysed using stage-based transition matrices. Leaf δ13 C, % N and photosystem II stress ( Fv/ Fm) were measured for seedlings, saplings and trees, and leaf mass per area ( LMA) for trees, and correlations among ecophysiological and demographic variables explored. Seedling, sapling and tree stem growth were among the slowest, and annual survivorship among the highest, reported for any tree. Transition matrix analyses yielded stable estimated population growth rates, λ, not significantly different from 1.0 for all populations. Leaf δ13 C was positively correlated with seedling and sapling height growth, while daytime photosystem II stress ( Fv/ Fm) was high in seedlings, but low in saplings and trees. Ecophysiological measures suggest that individuals transition from moisture-limited growth at the seedling stage to nutrient-limited growth as adults. High levels of environmental stress result in slow stand dynamics, characterized by low recruitment and growth rates counterbalanced by equally low mortality rates. These dynamics result in populations with limited capacity to increase in size quickly, but potentially highly vulnerable to decline should the rate of adult mortality increase. This combination of traits is likely typical of extreme stress-tolerator woody species and suggests a conservation focus on the preservation of mature individuals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background--Most studies have not demonstrated improved survival after prenatal diagnosis of critical congenital heart disease, including hypoplastic left heart syndrome (HLHS). However, the effect of delivery near a cardiac surgical center (CSC), the recommended action after prenatal diagnosis, on HLHS mortality has been poorly investigated. Methods and Results--Using Texas Birth Defects Registry data, 1999 through 2007, which monitored >3.4 million births, we investigated the association between distance (calculated driving time) from birth center to CSC and neonatal mortality in 463 infants with HLHS. Infants with extracardiac birth defects or genetic disorders were excluded. The associations between prenatal diagnosis, CSC HLHS volume, and mortality were also examined. Neonatal mortality in infants born <10 minutes from a CSC was 21.0%, 10 to 90 minutes 25.2%, and >90 minutes 39.6% (P for trend <0.001). Prenatal diagnosis alone was not associated with improved survival (P=0.14). In multivariable analysis, birth >90 minutes from a CSC remained associated with increased mortality (odds ratio, 2.03; 95% confidence interval, 1.19-3.45), compared with <10 minutes. In subanalysis, birth >90 minutes from a CSC was associated with higher pretransport mortality (odds ratio, 6.69; 95% confidence interval, 2.52-17.74) and birth 10 to 90 minutes with higher presurgical mortality (odds ratio, 4.45; 95% confidence interval, 1.17-17.00). Higher surgical mortality was associated with lower CSC HLHS volume (odds ratio per 10 patients, 0.88; 95% confidence interval, 0.84-0.91). Conclusions--Infants with HLHS born far from a CSC have increased neonatal mortality, and most of this mortality is presurgical. Efforts to improve prenatal diagnosis of HLHS and subsequent delivery near a large volume CSC may significantly improve neonatal HLHS survival. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Life History Theory predicts that extrinsic mortality risk is one of the most important factors shaping (human) life histories. Evidence from contemporary populations suggests that individuals confronted with high mortality environments show characteristic traits of fast life-history strategies: they marry and reproduce earlier, have shorter birth intervals and invest less in their offspring. However, little is known of the impact of mortality experiences on the speed of life histories in historical human populations with generally higher mortality risk, and on male life histories in particular. Furthermore, it remains unknown whether individual-level mortality experiences within the family have a greater effect on life-history decisions or family membership explains life-history variation. In a comparative approach using event history analyses, we study the impact of family versus individual-level effects of mortality exposure on two central life-history parameters, ages at first marriage and first birth, in three historical human populations (Germany, Finland, Canada). Mortality experience is measured as the confrontation with sibling deaths within the natal family up to an individual's age of 15. Results show that the speed of life histories is not adjusted according to individual-level mortality experiences but is due to family-level effects. The general finding of lower ages at marriage/reproduction after exposure to higher mortality in the family holds for both females and males. This study provides evidence for the importance of the family environment for reproductive timing while individual-level mortality experiences seem to play only a minor role in reproductive life history decisions in humans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In Japan, there has been virtually no study in a population large enough to definitively demonstrate a relationship between the preoperative clinical features and postoperative outcomes in patients undergoing abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair. The aim of this study was to determine the preoperative variables that significantly predict postoperative mortality after emergency or elective repair in Japanese patients with infrarenal AAA. In this retrospective cohort study, we assessed significant predictors of postoperative mortality in 1055 consecutive patients undergoing emergency ( n = 186) or elective repair ( n = 869) of an infrarenal AAA at the University of Tokyo Hospital or Sakakibara Heart Institute (Tokyo, Japan). Using logistic regression analysis, anemia (hemoglobin <9 g/dl), shock (systolic blood pressure <80 mmHg), and hypocholesterolemia (total cholesterol <120 mg/dl) were found to be independent preoperative predictors of 30-day mortality after emergency repair for ruptured AAA. The hazard ratio (HR) (95 % confidence interval) for these three predictors was 5.96 (1.70-20.84), 8.48 (1.47-49.02), and 7.31 (1.96-27.35), respectively. In the elective repair cases, no significant preoperative predictor of postoperative mortality could be identified either within or beyond 30 days of surgery. Hypocholesterolemia, anemia, and shock were found to be independent preoperative predictors of a postoperative high mortality rate in Japanese patients undergoing emergency repair for ruptured infrarenal AAA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A single species population model is investigated, where the discrete maturation delay and the Ricker birth function are incorporated. The threshold determining the global stability of the trivial equilibrium and the existence of the positive equilibrium is obtained. The necessary and sufficient conditions ensuring the local asymptotical stability of the positive equilibrium are given by applying the Pontryagin's method. The effect of all the parameter values on the local stability of the positive equilibrium is analyzed. The obtained results show the existence of stability switch and provide a method of computing maturation times at which the stability switch occurs. Numerical simulations illustrate that chaos may occur for the model, and the associated parameter bifurcation diagrams are given for certain values of the parameters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses Spain in the Middle Ages and the study of the transformation of the urban, rural, and mainland population due to the colonization of Spain. The authors elaborate on the history of the Black Death pandemic, the mortality statistics throughout Spain, and its effect on production rates and inflation. Several Spanish kingdoms including the Reign of Navarre, Castile, and Valencia are discussed and include topics such as the history of the taxation and the recorded censuses. Other topics include resources for population study such as newspapers, documentaries, and notarized documents.

A nonautonomous version of the SIR epidemic model in Ackleh and Allen () is considered, for competition of $$n$$ infection strains in a host population. The model assumes total cross immunity, mass action incidence, density-dependent host mortality and disease-induced mortality. Sufficient conditions for the robust uniform persistence of the total population, as well as of the susceptible and infected subpopulations, are given. The first two forms of persistence depend entirely on the rate at which the population grows from the extinction state, respectively the rate at which the disease is vertically transmitted to offspring. We also discuss the competitive exclusion among the $$n$$ infection strains, namely when a single infection strain survives and all the others go extinct. Numerical simulations are also presented, to account for the situations not covered by the analytical results. These simulations suggest that the nonautonomous nature of the model combined with the disease induced mortality allow for many strains to coexist. The theoretical approach developed here is general enough to apply to other nonautonomous epidemic models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]