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Given the profound structural changes in the national economy and its increasingly increased openness to the outside world, the transition to a more flexible exchange rate regime constitutes a fundamental reform in order to strengthen the competitiveness of the economy. its resilience to exogenous shocks and the level of its potential growth. However, the transition to more flexibility is not without risk, it would be accompanied by massive inflows of foreign capital motivated mainly by expectations of appreciation of the national currency and the interest rate differential, which will result in excess bank liquidity and excessive growth of reserves causing greater inflationary pressures and aggravation of financial fragilities and exchange rate risk. The objective of this article is therefore to question the capacity of the Moroccan economy through its macroeconomic fundamentals, its financial markets and its institutions, to support the transition to a new stage in the process of flexibilization of the exchange rate regime. The results show that this transition still has to wait, the ground needs to be further prepared.

This article aims to measure the pressure on the Moroccan foreign exchange market through the EMPI index. It was found that no crisis was signaled by this index during the years 2018 and 2019, which means that the policy of gradual flexibility of the exchange rate regime, which entered into force in January 2018, played a key role in this sense. Consequently, this reform would undoubtedly have reduced the pressure on the exchange rate by making the Moroccan economy more resilient and less vulnerable to exogenous shocks. Thus, 8 periods of crisis were identified with significantly high probabilities. Among these 8 periods, we can distinguish 3 periods which have been planned with more intensity, in particular in the second half of 2008, in the first half of 2012 and 2017.