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The South Asian high (SAH) location and intensity are linked with the latent heating of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and Yangtze River basin. The relationship between SAH variability and its impact on South Asian monsoon (SAM) onset is rarely linked with TP soil moisture. This study uses remotely sensed soil moisture and reanalysis products to quantify the relationship between the TP spring (April–June) soil moisture with SAH and SAM onset during 1988–2008. The results show that the TP spring soil moisture and monsoon onset indices are negatively correlated (R < −0.65), whereas the SAH exhibits a significant positive correlation (R ≥ 0.70) with TP soil moisture. The monsoon onset shows a difference of 20–25 days between the early- and late-onset composites. Significant positive (negative) soil moisture anomalies persist over the TP during the early (late) onset followed by positive (negative) LH (SH) anomalies during early (late)-onset composites. The TP thermal forcing exhibited positive anomalies during the early (late)-onset composites implying significant soil moisture control over the diabatic heating, which favors vertical ascent over the eastern plateau. Such a pattern leads to an earlier formation and movement of the SAH toward the Bay of Bengal (BOB) and southwestward of the TP. Before the early and late monsoon onset composites, the SAH pentad evolution drives the lower-tropospheric westerlies/easterlies toward continental SA. In the Indian Ocean the wind shear and transition from prevailing easterlies into westerlies during the pre-onset, onset, and post-onset pentad results in strong/weak ascent affecting the onset timing over the Arabian Sea and continental SA with less influence over the BOB monsoon onset. Significance Statement: The Tibetan Plateau heating is one of the key drivers of the Asian monsoon precipitation in the surrounding regions, which has been previously studied in detail. This study explored the Tibetan Plateau spring soil moisture's effect on South Asian monsoon onset timing. The monsoon onset timing is calculated using changes in wind direction, atmospheric temperature, and relative precipitation magnitude. Results found that the spring soil moisture substantially affects the TP thermal heating and the SA monsoon onset timing and highlights the physical processes leading to changes in the monsoon onset timing. The inclusion of soil moisture in estimating the monsoon onset timing can provide a tangible way of improving our understanding of the monsoon and associated water resources management practices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As an internal forcing of the earth climate system, soil moisture (SM) significantly influences the water and energy cycle by controlling evapotranspiration and terrestrial solar energy. The current study used observed precipitation, remotely sensed SM, and reanalysis of atmosphere and land parameters to assess the East Asian Monsoon (EAM) precipitation variability due to meridional SM oscillations across China. A generalized linear method, namely coupled manifold technique (CMT) for assessing the reciprocal forcing between two climate fields and numerical simulations are applied to SM and EAM precipitation. We find that the EAM precipitation interannual variability between north and south China significantly correlates with SM meridional oscillation. The CMT results further showed that SM forcing has a significant (99% confidence) influence on the EAM precipitation explaining about 0.40 of the variance ratio in north and south China. The EAM and SM composite analysis show that the wetter (drier) north (south) oscillates the EAM precipitation over the north (south) of China and vice versa due to SM thermal controls. We then used control and sensitivity simulations with SM observations to further validate the findings implying that SM can potentially improve the interannual EAM forecast skills. The model results show that a wetter (drier) north (south) results in negative (positive) sensible heat (latent heat) anomalies that impact the boundary layer and propagate to change the meridional atmospheric heating profile. When positive (negative) SM anomalies exist over northern (southern) China, the zonal easterlies and extratropical westerlies move to north China causing above-normal precipitation that descends into southern China, suppressing subtropical westerlies and precipitation in southern China. On the contrary, a dry (wet) north (south) favors intensified subtropical westerlies and precipitation in southern China. The findings have dire implications for the water and energy cycle of the region in the projected wetting and drying patterns of the north (south). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Various state-of-the-art gridded satellite precipitation products (GPPs) have been derived from remote sensing and reanalysis data and are widely used in hydrological studies. An assessment of these GPPs against in-situ observations is necessary to determine their respective strengths and uncertainties. GPPs developed from satellite observations as a primary source were compared to in-situ observations, namely the Climate Hazard group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS), Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP), Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR) and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) multi-satellite precipitation analysis (TMPA). These products were compared to in-situ data from 51 stations, spanning 1998–2016, across Pakistan on daily, monthly, annual and interannual time scales. Spatiotemporal climatology was well captured by all products, with more precipitation in the north eastern parts during the monsoon months and vice-versa. Daily precipitation with amount larger than 10 mm showed significant (95%, Kolmogorov-Smirnov test) agreement with the in-situ data, especially TMPA, followed by CHIRPS and MSWEP. At monthly scales, there were significant correlations (R) between the GPPs and in-situ records, suggesting similar dynamics; however, statistical metrics suggested that the performance of these products varies from north towards south. Temporal agreement on an interannual scale was higher in the central and southern parts which followed precipitation seasonality. TMPA performed the best, followed in order by CHIRPS, MSWEP and PERSIANN-CDR. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Deviations in South Asian Summer Monsoon (SASM) precipitation affect the regional floods and drought patterns. In the current study, in-situ observations from Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), remotely sensed precipitation data from Climate Hazard Infrared Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS), reanalysis data from ERA5, and National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) during 1981–2018 are used to explore the atmospheric circulation patterns during above and below-normal precipitation episodes. In a statistical sense, two methods, namely the Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) and Percent Normal (PN) indices are used to derive dominant spatial patterns and temporal evolution of extreme monsoon precipitation episodes. Results inferred 60% of the variance to the leading EOF mode depicting a similar spatial pattern of eigenvectors across the region. The leading principal component (PC) and PN index together depicted similar deviations, complementing the extreme flooding and drought years. From the composites, an anomalous increase (decrease) in seasonal precipitation magnitude was observed. The possible mechanism suggests an active control of atmospheric and sea-surface temperature (SST) forcing by altering the wind ascent (descent). The jet streams (200 hPa) intensification of Rossby waves high (low) pressure provides favorable frontal boundaries between polar cold and tropical warm air masses. The westerlies and easterlies are intensified (suppressed) during the above (below) normal precipitation composites, affecting the moisture transport. The enhanced (reduced) convective activities in the Indian Ocean as a primary source affected precipitation in the region during each composite. • Significant differences in precipitation magnitude exist during above- and below normal precipitation composites. • South-westerlies from the Indian Ocean and easterlies from Pacific Ocean convergence produce above-normal precipitation. • An active control of atmospheric and sea-surface temperature (SST) forcing modify the regional wind ascent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]