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International audience; Exloring the role of different types of investors on stock market is crticial since different types of investors react and behave differently when making investment decision. The role of investor behavior is a very important issue in an immature stock market like Vietnam stock market because the market is characterized by a large number of individual investors and low reporting standard. Institutional and foreign investors however play an influential role due to their large exposure and strong investment expertise. Clearly, examining the role of investor behavior and its impact on the stock market in Vietnam is an important topic in finance. A significant body of empirical research has shown that investor behavior is an essential factor to explain stock price that the classical financial theory cannot explain. This research examines the role of investor behavior in stock market by examining the relationship between investor behavior and stock return using the Vietnamese stock exchange data. We create a sentiment index using the principal components analysis (PCA). Consistent with the sentiment and stock return literature, the research shows a negative contemporaneous relationship between investor sentiment and market return.

Implemented in 2018, MiFID II changed sell-side analyst incentives in Europe, forcing analysts to justify the value they add. While the number of analysts decreases, the average stock return synchronicity with the market also decreases, implying an improvement in price informativeness. The decrease in synchronicity is larger for firms that are more important for the analysts and brokers covering them. It is also asymmetric and substantially larger for downside market movements. Our results suggest that, by changing incentives, MiFID II not only improves the quality of individual analyst work, but also achieves an improvement in the aggregate stock price informativeness.

Optimal stock investment decisions rely on assessments of the distribution of expected returns. Using a representative sample, we find over half the US population cannot answer simple questions on expected stock returns. Respondents who are unable to make any return prediction, who cannot answer questions on the distribution of expected returns, or who reveal unlikely distributional beliefs participate less in the stock market and have smaller stock investments. However, overoptimistic investors are more likely to participate in the stock market and have larger stock investments. These results persist after controlling for financial literacy, intelligence, education, and demographics. People who are ignorant about stock return distribution are more likely to invest in equities if they have higher levels of trust. Therefore, trust can substitute for cognition as a factor positively associated with individuals’ propensity to invest.

We find that liquidity volatility negatively predicts stock returns in global markets. This relationship holds for different liquidity measures and cannot be explained by the idiosyncratic volatility effect. This puzzle can be explained by the asymmetric impact of liquidity increase and decrease on expected returns. Since the price decline following liquidity decrease outweighs the price appreciation after liquidity increase, high-liquidity-volatility stocks, which are more likely to experience large liquidity changes in either direction, tend to have negative returns on average. We find that including liquidity decrease explains the negative premium of liquidity volatility, while including liquidity increase does not.

The Indonesian government has been catching up with infrastructure development in recent years. In carrying out infrastructure development, funding and determination of the optimum capital structure are needed because this will affect a company's financial structure. The company's source of funds comes from foreign capital and equity as measured by the debt-to-equity ratio. However, in realizing the optimal determination of capital structure will affect several other financial ratios, therefore the aim of this study is to identify and examine the relationship between DER and DPR, SR and SR which uses FS and ROE as intervening variables. The data used were fourteen companies engaged in building construction and toll road construction. The results of this study indicate that there is a significant positive relationship between DER on FS, ROE, EPS and DPR, FS on EPS and ROE on DPR and EPS. The DER variable on DPR and EPS which is moderated by ROE and FS also has a significant positive relationship. On the other hand, the relationship between FS and DPR and the DER variable against DPR moderated by FS, show a significant negative, while the relationship between DER and SR is negative and insignificant. In addition, the relationship between FS and ROE on SR and DER against SR which is moderated by FS and ROE shows a positive but insignificant. Keywords: Debt Equity Ratio, Firm Size Earning Per Share, Return on Equity, Dividend Payout Ratio dan Stock Return.

The purpose of this study is to determine the predictability of the Pakistani stock market's one-day forward returns by utilizing lagged daily returns for Pakistan, India, and Malaysia from 2006 to 2016. The findings indicate that lagged Pakistani market returns significantly predict Pakistani one-day ahead market returns. However, the other two growing stock markets, India and Malaysia, show no association with one-day ahead market returns. Mostly, stock market behavior in the pre-2008 and post-2008 eras was the same, although industry return behaviour was different due to the economic crisis of 2008. However, the Pakistani stock market one-day ahead returns predict the own Pakistani lag returns due to an inefficient market and prices do not follow a random walk. As a result, investors and financial analysts can foresee and generate anomalous returns by using previous data and information. Key words: Stock Market Returns Predictability, Stock Market crash, Market efficiency

Whether a stock market should matter or not when monetary policy is concerned seems to be a controversial issue. The purpose of this study is to indicate whether the central bank should use monetary policy to help the stock market or not. Based on macroeconomic data such as interest rate and the stock market, we adopt a novel Bayesian time-varying regression model and determine that the impact of interest rate changes on stock returns varies over time in China, after controlling various macroeconomic factors. Although on average interest rates negatively impact stock price returns, they tend to have an abnormal positive effect at market high points, following a time-varying dynamic pattern. Surprisingly, during periods of overheated economic development, an increase in interest rates cannot suppress the rise in stock prices. Therefore, policymakers need to pay attention when accelerating the marketisation of interest rates and initiating the preventive role of timely and strategic adjustment of interest rates.

This research discusses and analyzes the company's profitability related to the company's stock return performance Profitability of the firm is related to the firm's performance of stock return. This study uses time-series data with a total sample of 1,010 firms from five countries in ASEAN (Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Philippines, and Vietnam) from January 2010 to December 2019. Fama-French 3 factor model based on two different profitability showed that profitability positively affects the stock return in ASEAN markets. Fama-MacBeth's (1973) regression confirms that firm profitability scaled by operating profit-to-equity or operating profit-to-assets positively influences expected stock returns in the ASEAN market.DOI: 10.26905/jkdp.v25i3.5598

Return is one of the factors that investors pay attention in determining their investment policies. For this reason, this study analyzes the effect of several conventional financial performance indicators such as total asset turnover, current assets, debt to equity ratio, and return on assets to stock returns. Other variables that are seen as new indicators such as economic value added, human economic value added, and value added intellectual capital are also examined for their effects on stock returns. Companies engaged in the energy sector in Indonesia and Malaysia were made as objects in this study. OLS regression is used to analyze the effect of independent variables on the dependent variable. The results of an analysis of energy company data in Indonesia show that debt to equity ratio and human economic value added have a negative and significant effect on stock returns, while economic value added and value added intellectual capital have a positive and significant effect on stock returns. As for the object of research on energy companies in Malaysia, the results showed that total asset turnover, economic value added and value added intellectual capital had a positive and significant effect on stock returns.

The pandemic Covid-19 caused panic not only in health sectors but also weakened the world’s economy. The stock market, as one of the barometers of the economy, was hit by the pandemic Covid-19. The impact of Covid-19 on the stock market provides a signal for investors. Stock returns are what investors look for when investing in stocks. Returns on the stock exchange respond to several events, one of which is the news about health related to the Covid-19 pandemic. This study aims to seek whether the Covid-19 outbreak affects stock returns in Indonesia Stock Exchange. Using daily data of Covid-19 confirmed case, daily data of Covid-19 death cases, and stock returns data in Indonesia from January 2, 2020, to December 31, 2020. The panel-data regression model is used to estimate the result of the study. This study shows that stock returns in Indonesia Stock Exchange respond negatively significantly as the number of confirmed cases increases also stock returns in Indonesia respond negatively significantly to the daily growth of death cases. This study also finds that stock return in consumer goods and basic chemical industry were the impacted industries caused by pandemic Covid-19. Empirical findings could be used for the practitioner to consider investing in the stock market to avoid the significant impact of such outbreaks in the future.

Strong companies will not be too affected by news issues about stock splits, but several other companies that do stock splits actually experience a decline in demand for their shares. This study aims to analyze the effect of stock splits on abnormal stock returns and stock liquidity. In this study, the authors use quantitative research methods with a descriptive research approach, because there are variables to be examined and the relationship aims to describe the characteristics or behavior of a population in a systematic and accurate way regarding the relationship between the variables to be studied. The population in this study are companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange, namely companies that carried out stock splits in 2019. Based on the results of research, the authors draw the following conclusions: Based on statistical tests on abnormal returns, it was found that market reactions occurred during the day after the stock split, the first day until the fourth day after the stock split. Based on the results of the different tests on Abnormal Returns before and after the stock split, it shows that there is a significant difference between the returns before and after the stock split. Based on the results of the different tests on the average TVA before and after the stock split, it shows that there is a significant difference between TVA before and after the stock split.

The study aims to examine the reaction of stock investors in the food and beverage sub-sector to the announcement of COVID-19 on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) and the Turkish Istanbul Exchange (BIST). The approach method is an Event Study by comparing the return and volume of trading activity before and after the announcement of COVID-19 on the Indonesian and Turkish Stock Exchanges. The research sample is 32 IDX stocks and 27 BIST stocks. Observation period 13 weeks before and after the announcement. The distribution of the data is the basis for the selection of hypothesis testing. The study results showed that IDX investors reacted positively to the announcement of the COVID-19 pandemic, where stock returns were higher than before. Likewise, VTA was higher after the information, although not significant. Meanwhile, on the Turkish Stock Exchange, investors' positive reactions were shown by stock returns and trading volume activity, which was significantly higher after the COVID-19 announcement than IDX, which tends to stagnate.

This paper investigates the impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic on investors' trading behaviors around ex‐dividend dates in Europe. The sudden decrease in the number of companies paying dividends reduced the opportunities to capture dividends. Thus, the firms that maintained dividend payments during the pandemic attracted more interest than before. This led to a doubling in the magnitude of stock return patterns usually observed around ex‐dividend days. Our evidence indicates that dividend‐seeking investors are likely to be the main driver of the price patterns observed around ex‐dividend dates.

The active share of mutual funds drops significantly when investor sentiment is high, indicating that fund managers reduce their active stock selection and stay closer to their benchmarks during su...

Based on the patent data and stock return rates of thousands of China listed companies (A-shares), the effect of the innovation continuity which representing by the patent publication frequency, on the stock return rate were analyzed via ANOVA. The innovation continuity was good for observing the stock return rate in the whole market, Shanghai main board and small-medium board. The A-shares with the stronger innovation continuity showed the higher stock return rate. The utility model grant’s innovation continuity was an indicator of the highest applicability. It could be applied for the whole market and any stock board. The design grant’s strongest innovation continuity group had the highest stock return rate mean among all patent species’ strongest innovation continuity groups 5 though the design grant was usually regarded as the most valueless patent species in China. The invention grant was always regarded as the most valuable patent species around the world, yet the stock return rate variance between the strongest innovation continuity groups of the invention grant and the invention publication was not significantly different. The invention publication’s innovation continuity was more recommended rather than the invention grant’s innovation continuity. JEL classification numbers: C12, G11. Keywords: Patent, China A-share, Innovation Continuity, ANOVA, Stock Price, Return Rate.

The authors investigate the effect of a short-term stock return reversal on the term structure of momentum profits in the Korean stock market following Goyal and Wahal (2015). Their empirical findings show that the term structure of momentum is more pronounced when a return reversal lasts up to two months but is substantially weakened when past performance over the last two months is not taken into account for portfolio formation. Their evidence suggests that the term structure of momentum profitability arises primarily from a carryover of the return reversal from the previous two months.

It is generally acknowledged that one of the risks faced by any company is FX risk, especially when the business operates internationally. For individual companies, exposure to FX risk results in different financial implications, stressing such parameters as the industry affiliation and the company’s size with respect to the level of FX risk exposure. In this paper we analyse how FX exposure of companies of different size and operating in industrial and service sectors affects their stock market returns. Using the panel regression with macroeconomic and companies’ specific factors for 208 European companies analysed over the period 2012–2018, we show that the link between changes in the exchange rate and the stock return is statistically significant and that medium-size companies as well as firms operating in the service sector of economy are more exposed to this impact.

PurposeThe authors study the explanatory power of investor rationality and irrationality for value and momentum portfolios. We also examine the relationships during financial crisis events, namely, the US subprime mortgage crisis (2007–2009) and the European debt crisis (2011–2013).Design/methodology/approachThis study examines the influence of investors’ rationality and irrationality on the US stock market, using the multiple linear regression model and the stepwise regression model. Technically, the stepwise regression uses the machine-learning technique, with specific testing methods — forward selection, backward selection and stepwise selection — to find the best-fit model, according to Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC). Thus, in this study, we will show the best model, as tested by the stepwise regression model.FindingsOur empirical results contribute to the importance of reasons and emotions for stock-market returns and conclude that rationality and irrationality simultaneously explain the value and momentum portfolios, as well as the ETF portfolios. Also, the rational and irrational explanatory powers differ, depending on portfolios and different periods. Rational factors usually explain the volatility of the return to a greater extent than irrational factors. Moreover, during a financial crisis, the irrational factors remarkably increase their importance in explaining returns, especially for the ETF portfolios.Originality/valueWe expect this study’s contribution will show not only academic contribution but also benefit many stakeholders in the financial market. Investors and traders can identify various irrational factors of trading — for example, taking a long position during the panic in the market following the indicators in the models. Managers also reconsider the cost of the company by adding irrational factors when computing the equity’s expected return. Similarly, stock exchanges can adequately adjust their circuit breaker during a pessimistic-investor period. Finally, regulators can evaluate a complete picture of the stock market by adding irrational factors into their considerations.

This research looked at the effects of COVID-19 on a number of the world’s most important stock exchanges, as well as the empirical relation between the COVID-19 wave and stock market volatility. In order to plan proper portfolio diversification in international financial markets, researchers must examine COVID-19 anxiety in relation to stock market volatility. The stock market volatility connected with the COVID-19 pandemic was measured using AR(1)-GARCH(1,1). COVID-19 fear, according to our research, is the ultimate driver of public attention and stock market volatility. The findings show that throughout the pandemic, stock market performance and GDP growth both declined significantly due to average increases. Furthermore, a 1% increase in COVID-19 causes a 0.8% and 0.56% decline in stock return and GDP, respectively. The stock market, on the other hand, showed a slight movement in GDP growth. Furthermore, the COVID-19 pandemic reported cases index, death index, and global panic index all influenced public perceptions of purchasing and selling. As a result, rather than investing in stocks, it is recommended that you invest in gold. The research also makes policy recommendations for important stakeholders. We look to examine how stock returns respond dynamically to unanticipated changes in the COVID-19 scenarios, as well as the uncertainty that comes with a pandemic. Using daily data from Canada and the USA, we conclude that a spike in COVID-19 instances has a negative impact on the stock market in general. Furthermore, in both the increase and decline scenarios in Canada, the stock return reactions are asymmetric. The disparity is due to the unfavorable impact of the pandemic’s unpredictability. We also discovered that uncertainty had a negative impact on the US stock market. The magnitude, however, is insignificant.

Risk and uncertainty have always been an important issue for investors, researchers and policymakers. Thus, the explanation of the mechanism of spreading volatility between different markets has been the focus of attention by researchers. Determining the return and volatility interaction between oil prices and stock markets will be useful not only for pricing and hedging financial assets, but also for detecting and interpreting the reflection of the problems arising in the oil industry on the country's economies. In this study, the VAR-GARCH model introduced by Ling and McAleer (2003) was used to determine the interaction between oil prices and stock markets in terms of return and volatility for developing countries (BRICS-T). The reason for choosing this model is to reveal whether the shocks and volatility in these markets have a transitional effect.Keywords: oil price, stock return, volatility spillovers, VAR-GARCH modelJEL Classifications: G11, G15, Q4DOI: https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.11117

This study investigates the impact of North Korea’s nuclear tests on Asian stock markets. Two approaches are used separately in order to identify how stock market returns and volatilities change immediately after the nuclear tests. We find that the Chinese stock market tends to be more sensitive to unexpected shocks from North Korea’s nuclear tests than other Asian stock markets. However, relatively, the Japanese stock market is little influenced by the nuclear tests though Japan is not only geographically close to North Korea but also politically vigilant to North Korea’s nuclear threats. Also, we find that strengthened return correlations (linearity) do not necessarily increase stock return volatilities.

Firms with higher R&D intensity subsequently experience higher stock returns in international stock markets, highlighting the role of intangible investments in international asset pricing. The R&D effect is stronger in countries where growth option risk is more likely priced, but is unrelated to country characteristics representing market sentiments and limits-of-arbitrage. Moreover, we find that R&D intensity is associated with higher future operating performance, return volatility, and default likelihood. Our evidence suggests that the cross sectional relation between R&D intensity and stock returns is more likely attributable to risk premium than to mispricing.

This article conducts an overview of the performance of Japanese firm size- and firms’ investment-sorted stock portfolios from 1990 to 2020, and we derive the following contributions. First, we find that in our second half sub-period, the size effect is much clearer; while overall, the effect of investment is not so clear, suggesting that the portfolio constructions by firms’ investment are not so effective in Japan. Second, as we analyzed the performance of Japanese size- and investment-sorted portfolios using the data, which are in US dollars and for almost 30 years, our findings should be highly meaningful for both industrial practitioners and academic researchers, much deepening our understanding of stock portfolio returns and return premia in Japan.

The objective of this study is to examine the impact of sectoral shift on the stock return of Bangladesh. This study employs auto-regressive distributive lag (ARDL) approach using the weekly data of various sectoral indices of Bangladesh over the period from May 1999 to September 2016. The findings tend to indicate that there has possible sectoral portfolio diversification in the market and ‘general product industry' is the most exogenous and profitable sector from the rest. This study is one of the first attempts of the sectoral analysis and its impact on the stock return with the reference to Bangladesh. Furthermore, this study can be a benchmark for the policymakers of emerging economies to find the impact of economic transformation in the stock returns of the equity markets.

PurposeThe study aims to understand the role of different streams of oil shocks (demand, supply and risk shocks) on the oil-importing and exporting countries' stock returns. The study also examines the impact of crude oil shocks across the economic regimes and market states. Besides, the role of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008 in shaping the oil–stock relationship is also investigated.Design/methodology/approachThe authors revisit the impact of oil shocks on emerging equity markets by using the novel shock decomposition algorithm proposed by Ready (2018). The authors consider 24 emerging equity markets for the period spanning over July 15, 2002, to June 18, 2018, and bifurcate them based on oil dependence. The authors use rolling and dynamic conditional correlation analysis to understand the time-varying co-movements between oil prices and stock returns. The regime and state-specific dependence of stock returns on the structural oil shocks are captured by the Markov regime switching and quantile regression models.FindingsThe authors find that the demand shocks are positively associated with stock markets, whereas the supply shocks are negatively related, except in some of the oil-exporting countries. The risk-based shocks also appear to have a negative association with stocks. The authors do not find evidence of strong regime dependence and the direction of relationship across the high and low regimes is somewhat stable. Further, the authors observe an intense oil–stock relationship in the bearish market conditions. Besides, the authors also report evidences of changes in oil–stock relationship onset the GFC.Originality/valueThis is among the first studies to use the oil shock decomposition algorithm of Ready (2018) in the context of emerging equity markets. Additionally, oil shocks' role on the stock market movements across the regimes and market states is studied comprehensively. Thus, the nature of oil shock and the extent to which the emerging markets are exposed is observed in this study.

The idiosyncratic volatility (IVOL) anomaly, documented in Ang, et al. (2006), has garnered a great deal of attention in the literature. Yet questions remain regarding the robustness and pervasiveness of the IVOL anomaly, with a particular concern that the IVOL anomaly might simply be the manifestation of market microstructure effect. In this paper, we show that the IVOL anomaly is strong and pervasive after we exclude stocks most susceptible to market microstructure noise — such as microcap stocks, penny stocks, and stocks with strong short-term return reversal. These results are robust to equal-weighting or value-weighting stocks in the IVOL portfolios. Our findings suggest that rather than being the cause of the anomaly, market microstructure noise actually weakens the IVOL anomaly.

This paper analyses the impacts of rare disasters (financial, geopolitical and natural-technological) on the returns and risk premiums of stock and housing in 17 advanced economies for the period of 1870 to 2015. The stock return is sensitive only to the financial risk but not to the geopolitical and natural-technological ones. The housing return sees moderate impacts of financial and geopolitical disasters, but negligible impacts of natural-technological ones. The rare disasters can explain the surprisingly high risk premium (so-called ”risk premium puzzle”) of stock but not of housing.

The objective of this study is to investigate how investors in the Stock Exchange of Thailand practically trade in response to a magnitude of profits and losses, given a discussion of the widely well-known behavioral explanation, so called as the disposition effect. We provide empirical evidence of an existence of the V-shaped disposition effect, which has been recently found in several advanced equity markets. By adopting the methodology suggested by An’s (2016) and Fama and Macbeth (1973), we document that stock return patterns in relation to aggregate unrealized gains and losses of investors are consistent with the V-shaped selling schedule, given an increase in unrealized gains and losses over the period of January 1996 to December 2015. The effect of unrealized gains is stronger than that of unrealized losses and this asymmetry underlies the existence of the V-shaped disposition effect in the Thai equity market. Interestingly, the effect of the V-shaped selling schedule is strongest over the short-term holding time horizon. Last but not the least, stocks for which investors have large unrealized gains and losses outperform in the following month and the long-short trading strategy, based on this premise, generates the average 1.7% monthly (equivalent to 20.0% per year) abnormal return.

Stocks have the highest risk between other investment instruments, but with the right analysis, the high risk is proportional to the high return that can be obtained. Stock return analysis can be done using a basic approach, namely fundamental analysis and technical analysis. This study aims to examine the effect of the individual stock price index, past stock price, debt to equity ratio (DER), and net profit margin (NPM) in consumer goods industry companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange 2015-2018. This study uses multiple regression analysis models. The population of this study consisted of 60 companies, and the research sample consisted of 27 companies with 108 consumer goods industry companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange 2015-2018 periods. The results showed that individual stock price index, past stock price, DER, and NPM simultaneously have a significant effect on stock return. Partially individual stock price index and past stock prices have a significant effect on stock return. In contrast, DER and NPM have no significant effect on stock return in consumer goods industry companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange in the 2015-2018 periods.

We test the time‐varying stock return responses to both expected and unexpected market illiquidity. Using a Markov‐switching methodology on Tunisian market data, we find that expected and unexpected market illiquidity effects on Tunisian small‐cap returns are always negative and stable. But for large caps, unexpected market illiquidity (illiquidity shock) effect on stock returns varies over time across two distinct regimes. In the first regime, illiquidity shocks have small effect on stock returns, whereas in the second regime, this effect rises threefold compared to its magnitude in first regime. The second regime (stress scenario) is short lived and characterized by high volatility. We also find that effect of expected market illiquidity on large cap returns is insignificant. In addition, we investigate the factors that lead to the stress scenario on stock exchange of Tunis. We find that stress scenario is contingent to funding illiquidity and economic distress in Tunisia. Results prove that Tunisian economic distress occurred in the context of subprime crisis and Tunisian political crisis of 2010.

This study aims to determine and analyze the impact of bad news and good news on changes in stock returns of the four state-owned banks of Indonesia, period 2018. The population of this study is consists of four state-owned banks in Indonesia. Using a saturated sampling technique obtained four sample companies. Event study used to examine abnormal return around good news and bad news press release (announcement) date. The analysis technique used is Statistics Descriptive, One Sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov, Paired Sample T-Test, and Wilcoxon Sign Rank Test. There is no significant difference between before and after the press release of bad news. From ninety-six press releases of good news, five press releases showed there is a significant differences between before and after the press release of good news.

This study is focused on looking at conditions of macroeconomic changes that have an impact on the activity of the Islamic capital market, particularly on the return of Islamic stocks listed in the Jakarta Islamic Index. This empirical evidence is related to variable macroeconomic changes, namely changes in inflation, rupiah exchange rate, money supply, foreign exchange reserves, Indonesian Syariah Bank Certificates (SBIS) and interest rates on sharia stock returns for the period January 2014-December 2019 obtained from Financial publications. Service Authority (OJK) and Bank Indonesia. The analysis technique used is quantitative analysis using multiple regression analysis tools. Purpose. This study aims to examine the influence of changes in inflation, changes in the rupiah exchange rate, changes in the money supply, changes in SBIS, changes in foreign exchange reserves and changes in interest rates on the return of Indonesian Islamic stocks. Results. The results of this study are (1) Variable Changes in Inflation, Changes in the Amount of Money Supply, Changes in Foreign Exchange Reserves, Changes in SBIS have a positive and significant effect on Stock Returns listed on the Jakarta Islamic Index, (2) changes in exchange rates have a negative and significant effect on Stock Returns listed in Jakarta Islamic. Index, (3) the Interest Rate variable has no effect on Stock Returns listed on the Jakarta Islamic Index. Conclusion. The approach used by each variable starts with the conventional followed by the study of Islamic macroeconomics, in order to provide a philosophy of science and economics that refers to Baqir Sadr in the Iqtishaduna book. In this study, researchers examined macroeconomic variables on sharia stock returns to prioritize people’s welfare and pay close attention to every investment process based on sharia principles. Therefore the public, entrepreneurs, investors and company performance must pay attention to information regarding changes in inflation, changes in the rupiah exchange rate, changes in the money supply, changes in Bank Indonesia Sharia Certificates (SBIS), changes foreign exchange reserves, and changes in interest rates in order to minimize risks for both investors and entrepreneurs. This variable can affect the movement of the capital market so that the return on Islamic stocks also has an effect. Keywords: Stock Return; Inflation Change; Rupiah Exchange Rate; Change in Amount of Money Supply; Change in Bank Indonesia Sharia Certificate; Change in Foreign Exchange Reserves; and Change in Interest Rates.

This study examines nonlinear effects of global and country-specific geopolitical risk uncertainty on stock returns of Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Africa, and Turkey, employing a three-regime Markov-switching approach. This study discovers that the Markov-switching model captured the impacts of global and country-specific geopolitical risk uncertainty on stock returns of all fragile emerging economies, while the linear framework does not. Hence, the effects of both risk factors are nonlinear and asymmetric on stock market returns. The empirical results uncover that global geopolitical risk uncertainty can affect stock market performance both positively and negatively, which depend on contemporaneous time, lag time, volatility regimes, and stock market. The results also reveal that the country-specific political unrest adversely influences the stock market performance of four fragile emerging economies throughout the volatility regimes, with exception of the Indian stock market performance. Therefore, investors should follow market volatility behavior before taking risk of global and domestic geopolitical uncertainty.

This research examined whether the beta anomaly exists in the REIT market. By analysing a low-minus-high beta strategy and a betting-against-beta strategy in the REIT market, we find that high-beta REITs earn significantly lower risk-adjusted returns than low-beta REITs. This beta anomaly is only significant in the New REIT Era after 1993. The negative relationship between beta and REIT stock return does not disappear after taking into account some firm characteristics, suggesting that the beta anomaly in the REIT market is not driven by beta’s correlation with profitability, asset growth, lottery-like return or the skewness of stock returns. We find that institutional investors, whose portfolios increasingly contain a significant proportion of REITs, prefer the high-beta REITs. The exposure of institutional investors to high-beta REITs could explain the beta anomaly in the REIT market.

Knightian uncertainty embedded in stock returns causes rising demand for life insurance, as the uncertainty averse agent seeks alternative investment channels. Life insurance demand of middle-aged agent is more sensitive to the uncertainty. Stock return uncertainty reduces the agent’s total wealth and subsequently the propensity of wealthy agent serving as an insurance seller. Rising demand and falling supply of life insurance imply that life insurance is more expensive in the presence of stock return uncertainty. Sensitivity of life insurance demand to the mortality rate and key stock return characteristics also changes with the uncertainty.

This article examines the behavior of the small-capitalization stock return cycle. The authors compare the period 1980–2020 with a study for the period 1960–1995. They find that in the earlier period small-cap stocks earned a return premium when the economy was rising, long-term rates were rising, the US dollar was rising, and market volatility was falling. During the last decade, a strong move in large-cap stocks dwarfed the small-cap premium. The authors conjecture that a change in the character of economic growth, rising long-term rates, and oversold small-cap conditions may reverse this. TOPICS:Portfolio theory, portfolio construction, wealth management Key Findings • The small-cap premium appears to have waned in the last 20 years. • The premium is, however, still related to economic cycles. • Economic conditions and valuations now favor a small-stock premium.

This study analyzes the direct and indirect effects of air pollution on the return and volatility of the KOSPI index through the trading ratio by investor type. The main results are as follows. First, air pollutants have a direct effect on volatility; coarse particulate matter (PM10) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) have a negative effect on volatility. Second, air pollutants have a significant effect on the trading ratio by investor type; as the concentration of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) increases, the trading ratio of institutionals and those of foreigners decrease. Third, the effect of cumulative exposure of air pollutants on stock return and volatility is greater than that of daily exposure. Although there is no effect on daily exposure to air pollution, stock return decreases during cumulative exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and carbon monoxide (CO). The volatility changes significantly with cumulative exposure compared to daily exposure to coarse particulate matter (PM10), fine particulate matter (PM2.5), ozone (O3), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and sulfur dioxide (SO2). Fourth, air pollutants have an indirect effect on stock return and volatility through trading ratio by institutional and foreign investors. In particular, the effect of air pollution through the foreign investors’ trading ratio is a remarkable result revealed in this study.

This paper applies the BEKK-GARCH model to construct a comparative analysis of the heterogeneous relationship between the oil prices and stock prices of oil-related firms in the US and China. We find the following results. First, the effects of oil prices on stock returns depend heavily on the subsector category of an oil firm. Second, the effect from stock returns to oil prices displays distinguished country-specific patterns. The stock returns of oil firms in the US affect oil price, whereas stock returns of oil companies in China have limited influence on the oil market. Third, compared to the US, fewer Chinese oil company stocks are subject to risk spillover from oil market, but more stocks transmit their risks to oil market.

The objectives of this study are threefold: 1) to identify the concepts of earnings, stock return and liquidity risks on public shareholding industrial companies listed in the Amman Stock Exchange, 2) to investigate the relationship between earnings, stock return, strength and direction of this relationship, and 3) to find out the effect of liquidity risks at stock return and the effect of liquidity risks on the relationship between earnings and stock return on Jordanian public shareholding industrial companies. To achieve the objectives, an analytical descriptive approach was used. As the data on the public shareholding industrial companies listed in the Amman Stock Exchange were accredited by 52 companies for the period between 2014-2019, data validation tests and their suitability for analysis were considered. A linear regression test was used to test the study hypotheses on the statistical analysis program. The results show that there is a positive and significant correlation at significance level between the earnings and stock return. The results of the study also showed that there is a statistically significant negative effect at significance level of liquidity risk on stock return. In addition, it was demonstrated that liquidity risks have significant negative effects on the relationship between earnings and stock returns.