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A westward‐propagating Rossby‐like wave signal is found to explain a large fraction of the intraseasonal variance in cloud brightness over the Western Hemisphere. A series of diagnostic criteria suggest that this wave is a moisture mode: its moisture anomalies dominate the distribution of moist static energy (MSE) and are in phase with the precipitation anomalies; and the thermodynamic equation obeys the weak temperature gradient approximation. The wave propagates westward due to zonal moisture advection by the mean flow and is maintained by radiative heating and meridional moisture advection. These properties compare favorably with the westward propagating Rossby mode in an equatorial beta‐plane model with prognostic moisture, mean meridional moisture gradient, and mean zonal wind. These results underscore the importance of water vapor in the dynamics of slowly evolving tropical systems, and the limitations of dry shallow water theory that rely on a "reduced equivalent depth" to represent moist dynamics. Plain Language Summary: Recent studies have shown that water vapor plays a crucial role in the occurrence and organization of tropical rainfall, leading to the existence of moisture modes. Such waves do not exist in the dry theory of tropical waves. While this acknowledgment has significantly advanced our understanding of tropical meteorology, most studies on how moisture and the large‐scale circulation couple have been focused on the equatorial eastern hemisphere. In this study, we examine the features of a westward‐propagating signal that has received relatively little attention. On the basis of several objective criteria, we show that this wave has properties consistent with moisture modes. We show evidence that this is the case by investigating the thermodynamic budget of this wave, which is shown to be consistent with the budget of a theoretical moisture mode. Our results underscore the importance of water vapor in the governing dynamics of tropical waves, and the need to move away from dry theory as a basis to understand convectively coupled tropical motions. Key Points: A westward‐propagating mode is found to explain a large fraction of the intraseasonal rainfall variance over the Western HemisphereThe processes that govern this mode are distinct from the equatorial Rossby waves from Matsuno's theory, instead being more consistent with a moisture modeResults underscore the need to move away from dry theory to understand slow convectively coupled tropical systems [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The initiation of the Madden–Julian oscillation over the Indian Ocean is examined through the use of a moisture budget that applies a version of the weak temperature gradient (WTG) approximation that does not neglect dry adiabatic vertical motions. Examination of this budget in ERA-Interim reveals that horizontal moisture advection and vertical advection by dry adiabatic lifting govern the moistening of the troposphere for both primary and successive MJO initiation events. For both types of initiation events, horizontal moisture advection peaks prior to the maximum moisture tendency, while dry adiabatic lifting peaks after the maximum moisture tendency. Once convection initiates, moisture is maintained by anomalous radiative and adiabatic lifting. The dry adiabatic lifting during successive MJO initiation is attributed to the return of the circumnavigating circulation from a previous MJO event, while in primary events the planetary-scale circulation appears to originate over South America. Examination of the same budget with data from the DYNAMO northern sounding array shows that adiabatic lifting contributes significantly to MJO maintenance, with a contribution that is comparable to that of surface heat fluxes. However, results from the DYNAMO data disagree with those from ERA-Interim over the importance of adiabatic lifting to the moistening of the troposphere prior to the onset of convection. In spite of these differences, the results from the two datasets show that small departures from WTG balance in the form of dry adiabatic motions cannot be neglected when considering MJO convective onset. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple process models and complex climate models are remarkably sensitive to the time scale of convective adjustment t, but this parameter remains poorly constrained and understood. This study uses the linear-range slope of a semiempirical relationship between precipitation and a lower-free-tropospheric buoyancy measure BL. The BL measure is a function of layer-averaged moist enthalpy in the boundary layer (150-hPa-thick layer above surface), and temperature and moisture in the lower free troposphere (boundary layer top to 500 hPa). Sensitivity parameters with units of time quantify the BL response to its component perturbations. In moist enthalpy units, BL is more sensitive to temperature than equivalent moisture perturbations. However, column-integrated moist static energy conservation ensures that temperature and moisture are equally altered during the adjustment process. Multiple adjusted states with different temperature-moisture combinations exist; the BL sensitivity parameters govern the relationship between adjusted states, and also combine to yield a time scale of convective adjustment; 2 h. This value is comparable to t values used in cumulus parameterization closures. Disparities in previously reported values of t are attributed to the neglect of the temperature contribution to precipitation, and to averaging operations that include data from both precipitating and nonprecipitating regimes. A stochastic model of tropical convection demonstrates how either averaging operations or neglected environmental influences on precipitation can yield t estimates longer than the true t value built into the model. The analysis here culminates in construction of a precipitation closure with both moisture and temperature adjustment (q-T closure), suitable for use in both linearized and nonlinear, intermediate-complexity models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observations and theory of convectively coupled equatorial waves suggest that they can be categorized into two distinct groups. Moisture modes are waves whose thermodynamics are governed by moisture fluctuations. The thermodynamics of the gravity wave group, on the other hand, are rooted in buoyancy (temperature) fluctuations. On the basis of scale analysis, it is found that a simple nondimensional parameter--akin to the Rossby number--can explain the processes that lead to the existence of these two groups. This parameter, defined as Nmode, indicates that moisture modes arise when anomalous convection lasts sufficiently long so that dry gravity waves eliminate the temperature anomalies in the convective region, satisfying weak temperature gradient (WTG) balance. This process causes moisture anomalies to dominate the distribution of moist enthalpy (or moist static energy), and hence the evolution of the wave. Conversely, convectively coupled gravity waves arise when anomalous convection eliminates the moisture anomalies more rapidly than dry gravity waves can adjust the troposphere toward WTG balance, causing temperature to govern the moist enthalpy distribution and evolution. Spectral analysis of reanalysis data indicates that slowly propagating waves (cp - 3 m s-1) are likely to be moisture modes while fast waves (cp-30ms-1) exhibit gravitywave behavior,with ''mixedmoisture--gravity'' waves existing in between.While these findings are obtained from a highly idealized framework, it is hypothesized that they can be extended to understand simulations of convectively coupled waves in GCMs and the thermodynamics of more complex phenomena. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates changes to the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) in response to greenhouse gas–induced warming during the twenty-first century. Changes in the MJO's amplitude, phase speed, and zonal scale are examined in five models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) that demonstrate superior MJO characteristics. Under warming, the CMIP5 models exhibit a robust increase in the spectral power of planetary-scale, intraseasonal, eastward-propagating (MJO) precipitation anomalies (~10.9% K−1). The amplification of MJO variability is accompanied by an increase of the spectral power of the corresponding westward-traveling waves at a similar rate. This suggests that enhanced MJO variability in a warmer climate is likely caused by enhanced background tropical precipitation variability, not by changes in the MJO's stability. All models examined show an increase in the MJO's phase speed (1.8% K–1–4.5% K−1) and a decrease in the MJO's zonal wavenumber (1.0% K–1–3.8% K−1). Using a linear moisture mode framework, this study tests the theory-predicted phase speed changes against the simulated phase speed changes. It is found that the MJO's acceleration in a warmer climate is a result of enhanced horizontal moisture advection by the steepening of the mean meridional moisture gradient and the decrease in zonal wavenumber, which is partially offset by the lengthening of the convective moisture adjustment time scale and the increase in gross dry stability. While the ability of the linear moisture mode framework to explain MJO phase speed changes is model dependent, the theory can accurately predict the phase speed changes in the model ensemble. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

South Asian monsoon low pressure systems, referred to as synoptic-scale monsoonal disturbances (SMDs), are convectively coupled cyclonic disturbances that are responsible for up to half of the total monsoon rainfall. In spite of their importance, the mechanisms that lead to the growth of these systems have remained elusive. It has long been thought that SMDs grow because of a variant of baroclinic instability that includes the effects of convection. Recent work, however, has shown that this framework is inconsistent with the observed structure and dynamics of SMDs. Here, we present an alternative framework that may explain the growth of SMDs and may also be applicable to other modes of tropical variability. Moisture is prognostic and is coupled to precipitation through a simplified Betts–Miller scheme. Interactions between moisture and potential vorticity (PV) in the presence of a moist static energy gradient can be understood in terms of a “gross” PV (qG) equation. The qG summarizes the dynamics of SMDs and reveals the relative role that moist and dry dynamics play in these disturbances, which is largely determined by the gross moist stability. Linear solutions to the coupled PV and moisture equations reveal Rossby-like modes that grow because of a moisture vortex instability. Meridional temperature and moisture advection to the west of the PV maximum moisten and destabilize the column, which results in enhanced convection and SMD intensification through vortex stretching. This instability occurs only if the moistening is in the direction of propagation of the SMD and is strongest at the synoptic scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]