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Bayesian inference methods rely on numerical algorithms for both model selection and parameter inference. In general, these algorithms require a high computational effort to yield reliable estimates. One of the major challenges in phylogenetics is the estimation of the marginal likelihood. This quantity is commonly used for comparing different evolutionary models, but its calculation, even for simple models, incurs high computational cost. Another interesting challenge relates to the estimation of the posterior distribution. Often, long Markov chains are required to get sufficient samples to carry out parameter inference, especially for tree distributions. In general, these problems are addressed separately by using different procedures. Nested sampling (NS) is a Bayesian computation algorithm, which provides the means to estimate marginal likelihoods together with their uncertainties, and to sample from the posterior distribution at no extra cost. The methods currently used in phylogenetics for marginal likelihood estimation lack in practicality due to their dependence on many tuning parameters and their inability of most implementations to provide a direct way to calculate the uncertainties associated with the estimates, unlike NS. In this article, we introduce NS to phylogenetics. Its performance is analysed under different scenarios and compared to established methods. We conclude that NS is a competitive and attractive algorithm for phylogenetic inference. An implementation is available as a package for BEAST 2 under the LGPL licence, accessible at https://github.com/BEAST2-Dev/nested-sampling.

Bayesian inference methods are extensively used to detect the presence of population structure given genetic data. The primary output of software implementing these methods are ancestry profiles of sampled individuals. While these profiles robustly partition the data into subgroups, currently there is no objective method to determine whether the fixed factor of interest (e.g. geographic origin) correlates with inferred subgroups or not, and if so, which populations are driving this correlation. We present ObStruct, a novel tool to objectively analyse the nature of structure revealed in Bayesian ancestry profiles using established statistical methods. ObStruct evaluates the extent of structural similarity between sampled and inferred populations, tests the significance of population differentiation, provides information on the contribution of sampled and inferred populations to the observed structure and crucially determines whether the predetermined factor of interest correlates with inferred population structure. Analyses of simulated and experimental data highlight ObStruct's ability to objectively assess the nature of structure in populations. We show the method is capable of capturing an increase in the level of structure with increasing time since divergence between simulated populations. Further, we applied the method to a highly structured dataset of 1,484 humans from seven continents and a less structured dataset of 179 Saccharomyces cerevisiae from three regions in New Zealand. Our results show that ObStruct provides an objective metric to classify the degree, drivers and significance of inferred structure, as well as providing novel insights into the relationships between sampled populations, and adds a final step to the pipeline for population structure analyses.

Methods of phylogenetic inference use more and more complex models to generate trees from data. However, even simple models and their implications are not fully understood. Here, we investigate the two-state Markov model on a tripod tree, inferring conditions under which a given set of observations gives rise to such a model. This type of investigation has been undertaken before by several scientists from different fields of research. In contrast to other work we fully analyse the model, presenting conditions under which one can infer a model from the observation or at least get support for the tree-shaped interdependence of the leaves considered. We also present all conditions under which the results can be extended from tripod trees to quartet trees, a step necessary to reconstruct at least a topology. Apart from finding conditions under which such an extension works we discuss example cases for which such an extension does not work., (Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

As models of sequence evolution become more and more complicated, many criteria for model selection have been proposed, and tools are available to select the best model for an alignment under a particular criterion. However, in many instances the selected model fails to explain the data adequately as reflected by large deviations between observed pattern frequencies and the corresponding expectation. We present MISFITS, an approach to evaluate the goodness of fit (http://www.cibiv.at/software/misfits). MISFITS introduces a minimum number of "extra substitutions" on the inferred tree to provide a biologically motivated explanation why the alignment may deviate from expectation. These extra substitutions plus the evolutionary model then fully explain the alignment. We illustrate the method on several examples and then give a survey about the goodness of fit of the selected models to the alignments in the PANDIT database.

The "phylogenetic diversity" (PD) measure of biodiversity is evaluated using a phylogenetic tree, usually inferred from morphological or molecular data. Consequently, it is vulnerable to errors in that tree, including those resulting from sampling error, model misspecification, or conflicting signals. To improve the robustness of PD, we can evaluate the measure using either a collection (or distribution) of trees or a phylogenetic network. Recently, it has been shown that these 2 approaches are equivalent but that the problem of maximizing PD in the general concept is NP-hard. In this study, we provide an efficient dynamic programming algorithm for maximizing PD when splits in the trees or network form a circular split system. We illustrate our method using a case study of game birds ("Galliformes") and discuss the different choices of taxa based on our approach and PD.

We introduce another view of sequence evolution. Contrary to other approaches, we model the substitution process in two steps. First we assume (arbitrary) scaled branch lengths on a given phylogenetic tree. Second we allocate a Poisson distributed number of substitutions on the branches. The probability to place a mutation on a branch is proportional to its relative branch length. More importantly, the action of a single mutation on an alignment column is described by a doubly stochastic matrix, the so-called one-step mutation matrix. This matrix leads to analytical formulae for the posterior probability distribution of the number of substitutions for an alignment column.