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We study the probability of ultimate fixation of a single new mutant arising in an individual chosen at random at a locus linked to two other loci carrying previously arisen mutations. This is done using the Ancestral Recombination-Selection Graph (ARSG) in a finite population in the limit of a large population size, which is also known as the Ancestral Influence Graph (AIG). An analytical expansion of the fixation probability with respect to population-scaled recombination rates and selection intensities is obtained. The coefficients of the expansion are expressed in terms of the initial state of the population and the epistatic interactions among the selected loci. Under the assumption of weak selection at tightly linked loci, the sign of the leading term, which depends on the signs of epistasis and initial linkage disequilibrium, determines whether an increase in recombination rates increases the chance of ultimate fixation of the new mutant. If mutants are advantageous, this is the case when epistasis is positive or null and the initial linkage disequilibrium is negative, which is an expected state in a finite population under directional selection. Moreover, this is also the case for a neutral mutant modifier coding for higher recombination rates if the same conditions hold at the selected loci. Under the same conditions, deleterious mutants are disfavored for ultimate fixation and neutral modifiers for higher recombination rates still favored. The recombination rates between the modifier locus and the selected loci do not come into play in the leading terms of the approximation for the fixation probability, but they do in higher-order terms., (Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

We use the ancestral influence graph (AIG) for a two-locus, two-allele selection model in the limit of a large population size to obtain an analytic approximation for the probability of ultimate fixation of a single mutant allele A. We assume that this new mutant is introduced at a given locus into a finite population in which a previous mutant allele B is already segregating with a wild type at another linked locus. We deduce that the fixation probability increases as the recombination rate increases if allele A is either in positive epistatic interaction with B and allele B is beneficial or in no epistatic interaction with B and then allele A itself is beneficial. This holds at least as long as the recombination fraction and the selection intensity are small enough and the population size is large enough. In particular this confirms the Hill-Robertson effect, which predicts that recombination renders more likely the ultimate fixation of beneficial mutants at different loci in a population in the presence of random genetic drift even in the absence of epistasis. More importantly, we show that this is true from weak negative epistasis to positive epistasis, at least under weak selection. In the case of deleterious mutants, the fixation probability decreases as the recombination rate increases. This supports Muller's ratchet mechanism to explain the accumulation of deleterious mutants in a population lacking recombination.

Most previous models for the evolution of sex implicitly assume infinite population sizes and limitless resources. However, because favorable mutations are very rare and eukaryotic populations are finite, it has already been shown that multiple favorable mutants virtually never occur by chance. Therefore, sex is required to combine different favorable mutations into a single lineage. Second, we show that even when multiple favorable mutations do coexist, competition between genotypes can create negative epistasis for fitness, thus favoring recombination. Competition is especially effective when selection is at the level of viability in K-selected species living in a resource-limited environment. This means that recombination is advantageous both for incorporating new favorable mutations into the gene pool and for accelerating their increase to fixation. These advantages of recombination are diminished, however, as genome sizes decrease or as the amount of competition within the species is a less important component of selection.