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Start Over Author "Pullan, R. L." Topic models, biological
2 results on '"Pullan, R. L."'

1. Modelling and predicting the spatio-temporal spread of COVID-19, associated deaths and impact of key risk factors in England.

Author

Sartorius B, Lawson AB, and Pullan RL

Subjects
Bayes Theorem, COVID-19 virology, Disease Susceptibility, England epidemiology, Geography, Humans, Multivariate Analysis, Risk Factors, SARS-CoV-2 physiology, Time Factors, COVID-19 epidemiology, COVID-19 mortality, Models, Biological, Spatio-Temporal Analysis
Abstract

COVID-19 caseloads in England have passed through a first peak, and at the time of this analysis appeared to be gradually increasing, potentially signalling the emergence of a second wave. To ensure continued response to the epidemic is most effective, it is imperative to better understand both retrospectively and prospectively the geographical evolution of COVID-19 caseloads and deaths at small-area resolution, identify localised areas in space-time at significantly higher risk, quantify the impact of changes in localised population mobility (or movement) on caseloads, identify localised risk factors for increased mortality and project the likely course of the epidemic at high spatial resolution in coming weeks. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical space-time SEIR model to assess the spatiotemporal variability of COVID-19 caseloads (transmission) and deaths at small-area scale in England [Middle Layer Super Output Area (MSOA), 6791 units] and by week (using observed data from week 5 to 34 of 2020), including key determinants, the modelled transmission dynamics and spatial-temporal random effects. We also estimate the number of cases and deaths at small-area resolution with uncertainty projected forward in time by MSOA (up to week 51 of 2020), the impact mobility reductions (and subsequent easing) have had on COVID-19 caseloads and quantify the impact of key socio-demographic risk factors on COVID-19 related mortality risk by MSOA. Reductions in population mobility during the course of the first lockdown had a significant impact on the reduction of COVID-19 caseloads across England, however local authorities have had a varied rate of reduction in population movement which our model suggest has substantially impacted the geographic heterogeneity in caseloads at small-area scale. The steady gain in population mobility, observed from late April, appears to have contributed to a slowdown in caseload reductions towards late June and subsequent start of the second wave. MSOA with higher proportions of elderly (70+ years of age) and elderly living in deprivation, both with very distinct geographic distributions, have a significantly elevated COVID-19 mortality rates. While non-pharmaceutical interventions (that is, reductions in population mobility and social distancing) had a profound impact on the trajectory of the first wave of the COVID-19 outbreak in England, increased population mobility appears to have significantly contributed to the second wave. A number of contiguous small-areas appear to be at a significant elevated risk of high COVID-19 transmission, many of which are also at increased risk for higher mortality rates. A geographically staggered re-introduction of intensified social distancing measures is advised and limited cross MSOA movement if the magnitude and geographic extent of the second wave is to be reduced.

Published
2021
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2. Mapping and Modelling the Geographical Distribution and Environmental Limits of Podoconiosis in Ethiopia

Author

Deribe, K., Cano, J., Newport, M. J., Golding, N., Pullan, R. L., Sime, H., Gebretsadik, A., Assefa, A., Kebede, A., Hailu, A., Rebollo, M. P., Shafi, O., Bockarie, M. J., Abraham Aseffa, Hay, S. I., Reithinger, R., Enquselassie, F., Davey, G., and Brooker, S. J.

Subjects
wa_105, wa_30, wc_880, lcsh:Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine, lcsh:RC955-962, lcsh:Public aspects of medicine, lcsh:RA1-1270, wa_395, Models, Biological, Risk Factors, Prevalence, Humans, Elephantiasis, Ethiopia, Research Article
Abstract

Background Ethiopia is assumed to have the highest burden of podoconiosis globally, but the geographical distribution and environmental limits and correlates are yet to be fully investigated. In this paper we use data from a nationwide survey to address these issues. Methodology Our analyses are based on data arising from the integrated mapping of podoconiosis and lymphatic filariasis (LF) conducted in 2013, supplemented by data from an earlier mapping of LF in western Ethiopia in 2008–2010. The integrated mapping used woreda (district) health offices’ reports of podoconiosis and LF to guide selection of survey sites. A suite of environmental and climatic data and boosted regression tree (BRT) modelling was used to investigate environmental limits and predict the probability of podoconiosis occurrence. Principal Findings Data were available for 141,238 individuals from 1,442 communities in 775 districts from all nine regional states and two city administrations of Ethiopia. In 41.9% of surveyed districts no cases of podoconiosis were identified, with all districts in Affar, Dire Dawa, Somali and Gambella regional states lacking the disease. The disease was most common, with lymphoedema positivity rate exceeding 5%, in the central highlands of Ethiopia, in Amhara, Oromia and Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples regional states. BRT modelling indicated that the probability of podoconiosis occurrence increased with increasing altitude, precipitation and silt fraction of soil and decreased with population density and clay content. Based on the BRT model, we estimate that in 2010, 34.9 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 20.2–51.7) million people (i.e. 43.8%; 95% CI: 25.3–64.8% of Ethiopia’s national population) lived in areas environmentally suitable for the occurrence of podoconiosis. Conclusions Podoconiosis is more widespread in Ethiopia than previously estimated, but occurs in distinct geographical regions that are tied to identifiable environmental factors. The resultant maps can be used to guide programme planning and implementation and estimate disease burden in Ethiopia. This work provides a framework with which the geographical limits of podoconiosis could be delineated at a continental scale., Author Summary Podoconiosis is a neglected tropical disease that results in swelling of the lower legs and feet. It is common among barefoot individuals with prolonged contact with irritant soils of volcanic origin. The disease causes significant social and economic burden. The disease can be prevented by consistent shoe wearing and regular foot hygiene. A pre-requisite for implementation of prevention and morbidity management is information on where the disease is endemic and the identification of priority areas. We undertook nationwide mapping of podoconiosis in Ethiopia covering 1442 communities in 775 districts all over Ethiopia. During the survey, individuals underwent a rapid-format antigen test for diagnosis of lymphatic filariasis and clinical history and physical examination for podoconiosis. A suite of environmental and climatic data and a method called boosted regression tree modelling was used to predict the occurrence of podoconiosis. Our survey results indicated that podoconiosis is more widespread in Ethiopia than previously estimated. The modelling indicated that the probability of podoconiosis occurrence increased with increasing altitude, precipitation and silt fraction of soil and decreased with more clay content and population density. The map showed that in 2010, 34.9 million people lived in areas environmentally suitable for the occurrence of podoconiosis in Ethiopia.

Published
2015

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