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Dairy cows are negatively affected by the introduction of bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV), and consequently, produce less milk. Existing literature on potential milk production losses is based on relatively outdated data and hardly evaluates milk production loss in relation to a new BVDV infection in a surveillance system. This study determined the annual and quarterly loss in milk production of BVDV introduction in 3,126 dairy herds participating in the Dutch BVDV-free program between 2007 and 2017. Among these herds, 640 were "breakdown-herds" that obtained and subsequently lost their BVDV-free status during the study period, and 2,486 herds obtained and retained their BVDV-free status during the study period. Milk yields before and after BVDV introduction were compared through annual and quarterly linear mixed models. The fixed variables for both models included herd type (breakdown-herd or free-herd), bovine viral diarrhea status (on an annual and quarterly basis), year, season, and a random herd effect. The dependent variable was the average daily milk yield on the test day. To define the possible BVDV-introduction dates, 4 scenarios were developed. In the default scenario, the date of breakdown (i.e., loss of the BVDV-free status) was assumed as the BVDV-introduction date. For the other 3 scenarios, the BVDV-introduction dates were set at 4, 6, and 9 mo before the date of breakdown, based on the estimated birth date of a persistently infected calf. In the default scenario, the loss in milk yield due to BVDV introduction occurred mainly in the first year after breakdown, with a reduction in yield of 0.08 kg/cow per day compared with the last year before breakdown. For the other 3 scenarios, the greatest yield reduction occurred in the second year after BVDV introduction, with a loss of 0.09, 0.09, and 0.1 kg/cow per day, respectively. For the first 4 quarters after BVDV introduction in the default scenario, milk yield loss was 0.14, 0.09, 0.02, and 0.08 kg/cow per day, respectively. These quarterly results indicated that milk yield loss was greatest in the first quarter after BVDV introduction. Overall, BVDV introduction had a negative, but on average a relatively small, effect on milk yield for herds participating in the BVDV-free program. This study will enable dairy farmers and policymakers to have a clearer understanding of the quantitative milk production effect of BVDV on dairy farms in a control program., (The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. and Fass Inc. on behalf of the American Dairy Science Association®. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).)

Accurate forecasting of dairy cow milk yield is useful to dairy farmers, both in relation to financial planning and for detection of deviating yield patterns, which can be an indicator of mastitis and other diseases. In this study we developed a dynamic linear model (DLM) designed to forecast milk yields of individual cows per milking, as they are milked in milking robots. The DLM implements a Wood's function to account for the expected total daily milk yield. It further implements a second-degree polynomial function to account for the effect of the time intervals between milkings on the proportion of the expected total daily milk yield. By combining these 2 functions in a dynamic framework, the DLM was able to continuously forecast the amount of milk to be produced in a given milking. Data from 169,774 milkings on 5 different farms in 2 different countries were used in this study. A separate farm-specific implementation of the DLM was made for each of the 5 farms. To determine which factors would influence the forecast accuracy, the standardized forecast errors of the DLM were described with a linear mixed effects model (lme). This lme included lactation stage (early, middle, or late), somatic cell count (SCC) level (nonelevated or elevated), and whether or not the proper farm-specific version of the DLM was used. The standardized forecast errors of the DLM were only affected by SCC level and interactions between SCC level and lactation stage. Therefore, we concluded that the implementation of Wood's function combined with a second-degree polynomial is useful for dynamic modeling of milk yield in milking robots, and that this model has potential to be used as part of a mastitis detection system., (Copyright © 2018 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Reduction of milk yield is one of the principal components in the cost of mastitis. However, past research into the association between milk yield and mastitis indicators is limited. Past research has not been based on online or in-line daily measurements and has not fully explored nonlinearity and the thresholds at which milk yield starts to decrease. In dairy herds with automated milking systems equipped with sensors, mastitis indicators of individual cows are measured on an intraday frequency, which provides unprecedented avenues to explore such effects in detail. The aim of this observational study was primarily to investigate the nonlinear associations of lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), electrical conductivity (EC), and somatic cell count (SCC) with milk yield at various stages of lactation, parity, and mastitis chronicity status (i.e., whether the cow had SCC ≥200,000 SCC/mL for the last 28 d). We also investigated thresholds at which mastitis indicators (LDH, EC, and SCC) started to be negatively associated with milk yield. We used data from 21 automated milking system herds measuring EC and online SCC. Of these herds, 7 of the 21 additionally measured online LDH. We operationalized milk yield as milk synthesis rate in kilograms per hour. Applying a generalized additive model, we estimated the milk synthesis rate as a function of the 3 mastitis indicators for 3 different subgroups based on parity, stage of lactation, and mastitis chronicity. Partial dependence plots of the mastitis indicators were used to evaluate the milk synthesis rate to study if the milk synthesis rate was associated with mastitis indicators at a specific level. Results showed that milk synthesis rate decreased with increasing SCC, LDH, and EC, but in a nonlinear fashion. The thresholds at which milk synthesis rate started to decrease were 2.5 LnSCC (12,000 SCC/mL) to 3.75 LnSCC (43,000 SCC/mL), 0 to 1 LnLDH (1−2.7 U/L), and 5.0 to 6.0 mS/cm for EC. Additionally, another substantial decrease of milk synthesis rate was observed at thresholds of 5.625 LnSCC (277,000 SCC/mL) and 3 LnLDH (20 LDH U/L) but not for EC. Having chronic mastitis decreased milk synthesis rate in all models. The identified nonlinearities between mastitis indicators and milk synthesis rate should be incorporated in statistical models for more accurate estimations of milk loss due to mastitis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In automatic milking systems (AMS), sensors can measure cow behavior and milk composition at every milking. The aim of this observational study of previously collected data was to gain insight into the differences in dynamics of udder inflammation indicators between cows that recover and those that do not recover after detection of an initial inflammation. Milk diversion (milk separated from the bulk tank and thus indicating farmer intervention), conductivity, and somatic cell count (SCC) data from 4 wk before the initial inflammation to 12 wk after the initial inflammation were used to analyze 2,584 cases of udder inflammation. An udder inflammation case was defined as an initial observation of SCC ≥200,000 cells/mL as well as 1 additional SCC measurement >200,000 cells/mL within 10 d after the initial case, among other requirements. The data originated from 15 AMS herds in 6 countries. Four subsets of cows were created based on whether milk was diverted after the initial inflammation and whether the udder inflammation cases recovered, using a 10-d rolling average SCC threshold of 200,000 cells/mL and checking whether this rolling mean was below the threshold within 90 d after the initial inflammation as the indication of recovery. This formed the following subsets of cow lactations: milk diverted–recovered, milk diverted–not recovered, no milk diverted–not recovered, no milk diverted–recovered. Thresholds of 100,000 SCC/mL and 300,000 SCC/mL for the definition of case and recovery were also applied in a sensitivity analysis but with no substantial difference in results. Linear mixed models were used for each subset to study the variation in SCC (natural logarithm of SCC divided by 1,000) and σ-conductivity (natural logarithm of standard deviation of quarter conductivities). When observing the fraction of cows with SCC <200,000 cells/mL in the recovery subsets, most cows recovered within 20 d after the initial inflammation. In the recovery subsets, both σ-conductivity and SCC stabilized, mostly within 3 to 4 wk after the initial inflammation. σ-Conductivity stabilized above the pre-onset level in all subsets and did not show a clear increase in the no-milk-diverted subgroups, whereas SCC stabilized closer to the pre-onset level. Overall, this study indicated a cutoff point between nonchronic and chronic changes in indicators 3 to 4 wk after the initial inflammation for SCC and σ-conductivity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Milk diversion can be useful for indicating clinical mastitis in dairy cows. • Reporting quality affects diagnostic value of milk diversion and reported mastitis. • Milk diversion episodes of 4–7 days gave optimal diagnostic properties. The development of digital farming gives bovine mastitis research and management tools access to large datasets. However, the quality of registered data on clinical mastitis cases or treatments may be inadequate (e.g. due to missing records). In automatic milking systems, the decision to divert milk from the bulk milk tank during milking is registered (i.e. milk diversion indicator) for every milking and could potentially indicate a clinical mastitis case. This study accordingly estimated the diagnostic performance of a milk diversion indicator in relation to farmer-recorded clinical mastitis cases in the absence of a "gold standard". Data on milk diversion and farmer-reported clinical mastitis from 3,443 lactations in 13 herds were analyzed. Each cow lactation was split into 30-DIM periods in which it was registered whether milk was diverted and whether clinical mastitis was reported. One 30-DIM period was randomly sampled for each lactation and this was the unit of analysis, this procedure was repeated 300 times, resulting in 300 datasets to create autocorrelation-robust results during analysis. We used Bayesian latent class analysis to assess the diagnostic properties of milk diversion and farmer-reported clinical status. We analyzed different episode lengths of milk diversion of 1 or more milk diversion days until 10 or more milk diversion days for two scenarios: farmers with poor-quality (51% sensitivity, 99% specificity) and high-quality (90% sensitivity, 99% specificity) mastitis registrations. The analysis was done for all 300 datasets. The results showed that for the scenario where the quality of clinical mastitis reporting was high, the sensitivity was similar for milk-diversion threshold durations of 1–4 days (0.843 to 0.793 versus 0.893). Specificity increased when the number of days of milk diversion increased and was ≥98% at a milk-diversion threshold durations of 8 or more consecutive milk diversion days. In the scenario where the quality of clinical mastitis reporting was low, the sensitivity of milk diversion and reported clinical mastitis cases was similar at milk-diversion threshold durations of 1–7 days (0.687 to 0.448 versus 0.503 to 0.504) while specificity exceeded the 98% at milk-diversion threshold durations of 7 or more consecutive milk diversion days. In both scenarios, a milk diversion threshold duration of 4–7 days achieved the most desirable combined sensitivity and specificity. This study concluded that milk diversion can be a valid alternative to farmer-reported clinical mastitis as it performs similarly in indicating actual clinical mastitis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]