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PURPOSE Heart failure (HF) is a potentially life-threatening complication of treatment for childhood cancer. We evaluated the risk and risk factors for HF in a large European study of long-term survivors. Little is known of the effects of low doses of treatment, which is needed to improve current treatment protocols and surveillance guidelines. METHODS This study includes the PanCareSurFup and ProCardio cohort of ≥ 5-year childhood cancer survivors diagnosed between 1940 and 2009 in seven European countries (N = 42,361). We calculated the cumulative incidence of HF and conducted a nested case-control study to evaluate detailed treatment-related risk factors. RESULTS The cumulative incidence of HF was 2% (95% CI, 1.7 to 2.2) by age 50 years. The case-control study (n = 1,000) showed that survivors who received a mean heart radiation therapy (RT) dose of 5 to < 15 Gy have an increased risk of HF (odds ratio, 5.5; 95% CI, 2.5 to 12.3), when compared with no heart RT. The risk associated with doses 5 to < 15 Gy increased with exposure of a larger heart volume. In addition, the HF risk increased in a linear fashion with higher mean heart RT doses. Regarding total cumulative anthracycline dose, survivors who received ≥ 100 mg/m2 had a substantially increased risk of HF and survivors treated with a lower dose showed no significantly increased risk of HF. The dose-response relationship appeared quadratic with higher anthracycline doses. CONCLUSION Survivors who received a mean heart RT dose of ≥ 5 Gy have an increased risk of HF. The risk associated with RT increases with larger volumes exposed. Survivors treated with < 100 mg/m2 total cumulative anthracycline dose have no significantly increased risk of HF. These new findings might have consequences for new treatment protocols for children with cancer and for cardiomyopathy surveillance guidelines.

BACKGROUND: Associations of body shape with breast cancer risk, independent of body size, are unclear because waist and hip circumferences are correlated strongly positively with body mass index (BMI).METHODS: We evaluated body shape with the allometric "a body shape index" (ABSI) and hip index (HI), which compare waist and hip circumferences, correspondingly, among individuals with the same weight and height. We examined associations of ABSI, HI, and BMI (per one standard deviation increment) with breast cancer overall, and according to menopausal status at baseline, age at diagnosis, and oestrogen and progesterone receptor status (ER+/-PR+/-) in multivariable Cox proportional hazards models using data from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort.RESULTS: During a mean follow-up of 14.0 years, 9011 incident breast cancers were diagnosed among 218,276 women. Although there was little evidence for association of ABSI with breast cancer overall (hazard ratio HR = 0.984; 95% confidence interval: 0.961-1.007), we found borderline inverse associations for post-menopausal women (HR = 0.971; 0.942-1.000; n = 5268 cases) and breast cancers diagnosed at age ≥ 55 years (HR = 0.976; 0.951-1.002; n = 7043) and clear inverse associations for ER + PR- subtypes (HR = 0.894; 0.822-0.971; n = 726) and ER-PR- subtypes (HR = 0.906; 0.835-0.983 n = 759). There were no material associations with HI. BMI was associated strongly positively with breast cancer overall (HR = 1.074; 1.049-1.098), for post-menopausal women (HR = 1.117; 1.085-1.150), for cancers diagnosed at age ≥ 55 years (HR = 1.104; 1.076-1.132), and for ER + PR + subtypes (HR = 1.122; 1.080-1.165; n = 3101), but not for PR- subtypes.CONCLUSIONS: In the EPIC cohort, abdominal obesity evaluated with ABSI was not associated with breast cancer risk overall but was associated inversely with the risk of post-menopausal PR- breast cancer. Our findings require validation in other cohorts and with a larger number of PR- breast cancer cases.

As protection from COVID-19 following two doses of the BNT162b2 vaccine showed a time dependent waning, a third (booster) dose was administrated. This study aims to compare the antibody response following the third dose versus the second and to evaluate post-booster seroconversion.A prospective observational study conducted in Maccabi Healthcare Services. Serial SARS-CoV-2 Spike IgG tests, 1,2,3 and 6 months following the second vaccine dose and one month following the third were obtained. Neutralizing antibody levels were measured in a subset of participants. Per individual SARS-CoV-2 Spike IgG titer ratios were calculated one month after the booster administration compared to titers one month following the second dose and prior to booster.Among 110 participants,56 (51%) were women. Mean age was 61.7 ± 1.9 years and 66 (60%) were immunocompromised. One month after third dose, IgG titers were induced 7.83 (95 %CI 5.25-11.67) folds and 2.40 (95 %CI 1.90-3.03) folds compared to one month after the second, in the immunocompromised and immunocompetent groups, respectively. Of the 17 immunocompromised participants who were seronegative after the second dose, 4 (24%) became seropositive following the third. Comparing the titers prior to the third dose, an increase of 50.7 (95 %CI 32.5-79.1) fold in the immunocompromised group and 25.7 (95 %CI 19.1-34.7) fold in and immunocompetent group, was observed.A third BNT162b2 vaccine elicited robust humoral response, superior to the response observed following the second, among immunocompetent and immunocompromised individuals.

Background: Nutrition and lifestyle have been long established as risk factors for colorectal cancer (CRC). Modifiable lifestyle behaviours bear potential to minimize long-term CRC risk; however, translation of lifestyle information into individualized CRC risk assessment has not been implemented. Lifestyle-based risk models may aid the identification of high-risk individuals, guide referral to screening and motivate behaviour change. We therefore developed and validated a lifestyle-based CRC risk prediction algorithm in an asymptomatic European population. Methods: The model was based on data from 255,482 participants in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study aged 19 to 70 years who were free of cancer at study baseline (1992–2000) and were followed up to 31 September 2010. The model was validated in a sample comprising 74,403 participants selected among five EPIC centres. Over a median follow-up time of 15 years, there were 3645 and 981 colorectal cancer cases in the derivation and validation samples, respectively. Variable selection algorithms in Cox proportional hazard regression and random survival forest (RSF) were used to identify the best predictors among plausible predictor variables. Measures of discrimination and calibration were calculated in derivation and validation samples. To facilitate model communication, a nomogram and a web-based application were developed. Results: The final selection model included age, waist circumference, height, smoking, alcohol consumption, physical activity, vegetables, dairy products, processed meat, and sugar and confectionary. The risk score demonstrated good discrimination overall and in sex-specific models. Harrell’s C-index was 0.710 in the derivation cohort and 0.714 in the validation cohort. The model was well calibrated and showed strong agreement between predicted and observed risk. Random survival forest analysis suggested high model robustness. Beyond age, lifestyle data led to improved model performance overall (continuous net reclassification improvement = 0.307 (95% CI 0.264–0.352)), and especially for young individuals below 45 years (continuous net reclassification improvement = 0.364 (95% CI 0.084–0.575)). Conclusions: LiFeCRC score based on age and lifestyle data accurately identifies individuals at risk for incident colorectal cancer in European populations and could contribute to improved prevention through motivating lifestyle change at an individual level., German Research Foundation (DFG) AL 1784/3-1, European Commission European Commission Joint Research Centre, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Danish Cancer Society, Ligue Contre le Cancer (France), Institut Gustave Roussy (France), Mutuelle Generale de l'Education Nationale (France), Institut National de la Sante et de la Recherche Medicale (Inserm), Deutsche Krebshilfe, Deutsches Krebsforschungszentrum (DKFZ) (Germany), Federal Ministry of Education & Research (BMBF), Hellenic Health Foundation (Greece), Associazione Italiana per la Ricerca sul Cancro (AIRC), Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (CNR), Netherlands Government, World Cancer Research Fund International (WCRF), Instituto de Salud Carlos III PI13/00061 PI13/01162, Junta de Andalucia, Regional Government of Asturias (Spain), Regional Government of Basque Country (Spain), Regional Government of Murcia (Spain) 6236, Regional Government of Navarra (Spain), Regional Government of Catalonia (Catalan Institute of Oncology -ICO-IDIBELL) (Spain), Swedish Cancer Society, Swedish Research Council, County Council of Skane (Sweden), County Council of Vasterbotten (Sweden), Cancer Research UK C864/A14136 C8221/A19170, UK Research & Innovation (UKRI) Medical Research Council UK (MRC) MR/N003284/1 MC-UU_12015/1 MR/M012190/1, Projekt DEAL

Background: Evidence is accumulating that immune cells play a prominent role in pancreatic cancer etiology but prospective investigations are missing. Methods: We conducted a nested case–control study within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study with 502 pairs of incident pancreatic cancer cases and matched controls. Relative counts of circulating immune cells (neutrophils and lymphocyte sublineages: total CD3+, CD8+, CD4+, and FOXP3+ regulatory T cells (Tregs) relative to nucleated cells, (white blood cells) were measured by qRT-PCR. ORs with 95% confidence intervals were estimated using logistic regressions, modeling relative counts of immune cells on a continuous scale. Results: Neither relative counts of immune cell types taken individually, nor mutually adjusted for each other were associated with pancreatic cancer risks. However, in subgroup analyses by strata of lag-time, higher relative counts of Tregs and lower relative counts of CD8+ were significantly associated with an increased pancreatic cancer risks in participants diagnosed within the first 5 years of follow-up. Conclusions: These results might reflect reverse causation, due to higher relative counts of Tregs and lower counts of CD8+ cells among individuals with more advanced stages of latent pancreatic cancer, who are closer to the point of developing clinical manifest disease. Impact: We have shown, for the first time, that increased relative counts of regulatory T cells and lower relative counts of CD8+, cytotoxic T cells may be associated with pancreatic cancer risk or relatively late-stage tumor development. See related commentary by Michaud and Kelsey, p. 2176

The coordination of EPIC is financially supported by the European Commission (DG-SANCO) and the International Agency for Research on Cancer. The national cohorts are supported by the Danish Cancer Society (Denmark); Ligue Contre le Cancer, Institut Gustave Roussy, Mutuelle Générale de l’Education Nationale, and Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM) (France); Deutsche Krebshilfe, Deutsches Krebsforschungszentrum, and Federal Ministry of Education and Research (Germany); the Hellenic Health Foundation (Greece); the Sicilian Government, AIRE ONLUS Ragusa, AVIS Ragusa, Associazione Italiana per la Ricerca sul Cancro-AIRC-Italy, and National Research Council (Italy); Dutch Ministry of Public Health, Welfare and Sports (VWS), Netherlands Cancer Registry (NKR), LK Research Funds, Dutch Prevention Funds, Dutch ZON (Zorg Onderzoek Nederland), World Cancer Research Fund (WCRF), and Statistics Netherlands (the Netherlands); Nordic Centre of Excellence programme on Food, Nutrition and Health. (Norway); Health Research Fund (FIS), PI13/00061 to Granada, PI13/01162 to EPIC-Murcia, Regional Governments of Andalucía, Asturias, Basque Country, Murcia, Navarra, and the Catalan Institute of Oncology (Barcelona), Spain; Swedish Cancer Society, Swedish Scientific Council, and County Councils of Skåne and Västerbotten (Sweden); Cancer Research UK (C864/A14136 to EPIC-Norfolk; C8221/A19170, C570/A16491 and C8221/ A290170 to EPIC-Oxford), Medical Research Council (MR/ N003284/1 and MC-UU_12015/1 to EPIC-Norfolk, MR/ M012190/1 to EPIC-Oxford (UK). The funding sources had no influence on the design of the study; the collection, analysis, and interpretation of data; the writing of the report; or the decision to submit the paper for publication.Support for this study was also provided by the COST Action CA17118 supported by COST (European Cooperation in Science and Technology, www.cost.eu) to DJH., Experimental evidence has implicated genotoxic Escherichia coli (E. coli) and enterotoxigenic Bacteroides fragilis (ETBF) in the development of colorectal cancer (CRC). However, evidence from epidemiological studies is sparse. We therefore assessed the association of serological markers of E. coli and ETBF exposure with odds of developing CRC in the European Prospective Investigation into Nutrition and Cancer (EPIC) study. Serum samples of incident CRC cases and matched controls (n = 442 pairs) were analyzed for immunoglobulin (Ig) A and G antibody responses to seven E. coli proteins and two isoforms of the ETBF toxin via multiplex serology. Multivariable-adjusted conditional logistic regression analyses were used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association of sero-positivity to E. coli and ETBF with CRC. The IgA-positivity of any of the tested E. coli antigens was associated with higher odds of developing CRC (OR: 1.42; 95% CI: 1.05–1.91). Dual-positivity for both IgA and IgG to E. coli and ETBF was associated with >1.7-fold higher odds of developing CRC, with a significant association only for IgG (OR: 1.75; 95% CI: 1.04, 2.94). This association was more pronounced when restricted to the proximal colon cancers (OR: 2.62; 95% CI: 1.09, 6.29) compared to those of the distal colon (OR: 1.24; 95% CI: 0.51, 3.00) (pheterogeneity = 0.095). Sero-positivity to E. coli and ETBF was associated with CRC development, suggesting that co-infection of these bacterial species may contribute to colorectal carcinogenesis. These findings warrant further exploration in larger prospective studies and within different population groups., European Commission (DG-SANCO), International Agency for Research on Cancer, Danish Cancer Society (Denmark), Ligue Contre le Cancer, Institut Gustave Roussy, Mutuelle Générale de l’Education Nationale, and Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM) (France), Deutsche Krebshilfe, Deutsches Krebsforschungszentrum, and Federal Ministry of Education and Research (Germany), Hellenic Health Foundation (Greece), Sicilian Government, AIRE ONLUS Ragusa, AVIS Ragusa, Associazione Italiana per la Ricerca sul Cancro-AIRC-Italy, and National Research Council (Italy), Dutch Ministry of Public Health, Welfare and Sports (VWS), Netherlands Cancer Registry (NKR), LK Research Funds, Dutch Prevention Funds, Dutch ZON (Zorg Onderzoek Nederland), World Cancer Research Fund (WCRF), and Statistics Netherlands (the Netherlands), Nordic Centre of Excellence programme on Food, Nutrition and Health. (Norway), Health Research Fund (FIS), PI13/00061 to Granada, PI13/01162 to EPIC-Murcia, Regional Governments of Andalucía, Asturias, Basque Country, Murcia, Navarra, and the Catalan Institute of Oncology (Barcelona), Spain, Swedish Cancer Society, Swedish Scientific Council, and County Councils of Skåne and Västerbotten (Sweden), Cancer Research UK (C864/A14136 to EPIC-Norfolk; C8221/A19170, C570/A16491 and C8221/ A290170 to EPIC-Oxford), Medical Research Council (MR/ N003284/1 and MC-UU_12015/1 to EPIC-Norfolk, MR/ M012190/1 to EPIC-Oxford (UK), COST Action CA17118 supported by COST (European Cooperation in Science and Technology)

Aims The aim of this study was to develop, validate, and illustrate an updated prediction model (SCORE2) to estimate 10-year fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in individuals without previous CVD or diabetes aged 40-69 years in Europe.Methods and results We derived risk prediction models using individual-participant data from 45 cohorts in 13 countries (677 684 individuals, 30 121 CVD events). We used sex-specific and competing risk-adjusted models, including age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, and total- and HDL-cholesterol. We defined four risk regions in Europe according to country-specific CVD mortality, recalibrating models to each region using expected incidences and risk factor distributions. Region-specific incidence was estimated using CVD mortality and incidence data on 10 776 466 individuals. For external validation, we analysed data from 25 additional cohorts in 15 European countries (1 133 181 individuals, 43 492 CVD events). After applying the derived risk prediction models to external validation cohorts, C-indices ranged from 0.67 (0.65-0.68) to 0.81 (0.76-0.86). Predicted CVD risk varied several-fold across European regions. For example, the estimated 10-year CVD risk for a 50-year-old smoker, with a systolic blood pressure of 140 mmHg, total cholesterol of 5.5 mmol/L, and HDL-cholesterol of 1.3 mmol/L, ranged from 5.9% for men in low- risk countries to 14.0% for men in very high-risk countries, and from 4.2% for women in low-risk countries to 13.7% for women in very high-risk countries.Conclusion SCORE2-a new algorithm derived, calibrated, and validated to predict 10-year risk of first-onset CVD in European populations-enhances the identification of individuals at higher risk of developing CVD across Europe. Acknowledgements We thank investigators and participants of the several studies that contributed data to the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (ERFC). This research has been conducted using the UK Biobank Resource under Application Number 26865. Data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) were obtained under licence from the UK Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (protocol 162RMn2). CPRD uses data provided by patients and collected by the NHS as part of their care and support. We thank all EPIC participants and staff for their contribution to the study, the laboratory teams at the Medical Research Council Epidemiology Unit for sample management and Cambridge Genomic Services for genotyping, Sarah Spackman for data management and the team at the EPIC-CVD Coordinating Centre for study co-ordination and administration. Funding The ERFC co-ordinating centre was underpinned by programme grants from the British Heart Foundation (SP/09/002; RG/13/13/30194; RG/18/13/33946), BHF Centre of Research Excellence (RE/18/1/34212), the UK Medical Research Council (MR/L003120/1), and the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre (BRC1215-20014), with project-specific support received from the UK NIHR [*], British United Provident Association UK Foundation and an unrestricted educational grant from GlaxoSmithKline. A variety of funding sources have supported recruitment, follow-up, and laboratory measurements in the studies contributing data to the ERFC, which are listed on the ERFC website (www.phpc.cam.ac.uk/ceu/erfc/list-of-studies). *The views expressed are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the NIHR or the Department of Health and Social Care. This work was supported by Health Data Research UK, which is funded by the UK Medical Research Council, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, Economic and Social Research Council, Department of Health and Social Care (England), Chief Scientist Office of the Scottish Government Health and Social Care Directorates, Health and Social Care Research and Development Division (Welsh Government), Public Health Agency (Northern Ireland), British Heart Foundation, and Wellcome. The MORGAM Project has received funding from EU projects MORGAM (Biomed BMH4-CT98-3183), GenomEUtwin (FP5, QLG2-CT-2002-01254), ENGAGE (FP7, HEALTH-F4-2007-201413),CHANCES (FP7, HEALTH-F3-2010-242244), BiomarCaRE (FP7,HEALTH-F2-2011-278913), euCanSHare (Horizon 2020, No. 825903) and AFFECT-EU (Horizon 2020, No. 847770); and Medical Research Council, London (G0601463, No. 80983: Biomarkers in the MORGAM Populations). This has supported central coordination, workshops and part of the activities of the MORGAM Data Centre, the MORGAM Laboratories and the MORGAM Participating Centres EPIC-CVD was funded by the European Research Council (268834), and the European Commission Framework Programme 7 (HEALTH-F2-2012-279233). This work was supported by the Estonian Research Council grant PUTs (PRG687, PUT1660, PUT1665, PRG184), by European Union through the European Regional Development Fund project no. MOBERA5 (Norface Network project no 462.16.107), by the Green ICT programme under Norway Grants 2014 – 2021 (grant number EU53928), by the European Union through Horizon 2020 grant no. 810645 and through the European Regional Development Fund (Project No. 2014-2020.4.01.16-0125) and by the PRECISE4Q consortium. PRECISE4Q project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under Grant agreement 777107. This work was partly funded through the CoMorMent project. CoMorMent has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under Grant agreement 847776. The KORA study was initiated and financed by the Helmholtz Zentrum Mu¨nchen—German Research Center for Environmental Health, which is funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) and by the State of Bavaria. The KORA study was supported by a research grant from the Virtual Institute of Diabetes Research (Helmholtz Zentrum Mu¨nchen), the Clinical Cooperation Group Diabetes between Ludwig-Maximilians-Universita¨t Mu¨nchen and Helmholtz Zentrum Mu¨nchen, and by the German Diabetes Center (DDZ). The HAPIEE project, Institute, was supported by grants from the Wellcome Trust (064947/Z/01/Z; WT081081) and US National Institute on Aging (1R01 and AG23522). The co-ordination of EPIC is financially supported by International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) and also by the Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, which has additional infrastructure support provided by the NIHR Imperial Biomedical Research Centre (BRC). The national cohorts are supported by: Danish Cancer Society (Denmark); Ligue Contre le Cancer, Institut Gustave Roussy, Mutuelle Ge´ne´rale de l’Education Nationale, Institut National de la Sante´ et de la Recherche Me´dicale (INSERM) (France); German Cancer Aid, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), German Institute of Human Nutrition Potsdam Rehbruecke (DIfE), Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) (Germany); Associazione Italiana per la Ricerca sul Cancro-AIRC-Italy, Compagnia di SanPaolo and National Research Council (Italy); Dutch 2448 SCORE2 working group and ESC Cardiovascular Risk Collaboration Ministry of Public Health, Welfare and Sports (VWS), Netherlands Cancer Registry (NKR), LK Research Funds, Dutch Prevention Funds, Dutch ZON (Zorg Onderzoek Nederland), World Cancer Research Fund (WCRF), Statistics Netherlands (The Netherlands); Health Research Fund (FIS)—Instituto de Salud Carlos III (ISCIII), Regional Governments of Andalucı´a, Asturias, Basque Country, Murcia and Navarra, and the Catalan Institute of Oncology—ICO (Spain); Swedish Cancer Society, Swedish Research Council and County Councils of Ska˚ne and Va¨sterbotten (Sweden); Cancer Research UK (14136 to EPIC-Norfolk; C8221/A29017 to EPIC-Oxford), Medical Research Council (1000143 to EPIC-Norfolk; MR/M012190/1 to EPIC-Oxford) (United Kingdom)

Background: Dioxins and polychlorobiphenyls (PCBs) are persistent organic pollutants that have demonstrated endocrine disrupting properties. Several of these chemicals are carcinogenic and positive associations have been suggested with breast cancer risk. In general population, diet represents the main source of exposure. Methods: Associations between dietary intake of 17 dioxins and 35 PCBs and breast cancer were evaluated in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort from nine European countries using multivariable Cox regressions. The present study included 318,607 women (mean ± SD age: 50.7 ± 9.7) with 13,241 incident invasive breast cancers and a median follow-up of 14.9 years (IQR = 13.5–16.4). Dietary intake of dioxins and PCBs was assessed combining EPIC food consumption data with food contamination data provided by the European Food Safety Authority. Results: Exposure to dioxins, dioxins + Dioxin-Like-PCBs, Dioxin-Like-PCBs (DL-PCBs), and Non-Dioxin-LikePCBs (NDL-PCBs) estimated from reported dietary intakes were not associated with breast cancer incidence, with the following hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals for an increment of 1 SD: HRdioxins = 1.00 (0.98 to 1.02), HRdioxins+DL-PCB = 1.01 (0.98 to 1.03), HRL-PCB = 1.01 (0.98 to 1.03), and HRNDL-PCB = 1.01 (0.99 to 1.03). Results remained unchanged when analyzing intakes as quintile groups, as well as when analyses were run separately per country, or separating breast cancer cases based on estrogen receptor status or after further adjustments on main contributing food groups to PCBs and dioxins intake and nutritional factors. Conclusions: This large European prospective study does not support the hypothesis of an association between dietary intake of dioxins and PCBs and breast cancer risk.

Background Socio-economic inequalities in mortality are well established, yet the contribution of intermediate risk factors that may underlie these relationships remains unclear. We evaluated the role of multiple modifiable intermediate risk factors underlying socio-economic-associated mortality and quantified the potential impact of reducing early all-cause mortality by hypothetically altering socio-economic risk factors. Methods Data were from seven cohort studies participating in the LIFEPATH Consortium (total n = 179 090). Using both socio-economic position (SEP) (based on occupation) and education, we estimated the natural direct effect on all-cause mortality and the natural indirect effect via the joint mediating role of smoking, alcohol intake, dietary patterns, physical activity, body mass index, hypertension, diabetes and coronary artery disease. Hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated, using counterfactual natural effect models under different hypothetical actions of either lower or higher SEP or education. Results Lower SEP and education were associated with an increase in all-cause mortality within an average follow-up time of 17.5 years. Mortality was reduced via modelled hypothetical actions of increasing SEP or education. Through higher education, the HR was 0.85 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.84, 0.86] for women and 0.71 (95% CI 0.70, 0.74) for men, compared with lower education. In addition, 34% and 38% of the effect was jointly mediated for women and men, respectively. The benefits from altering SEP were slightly more modest. Conclusions These observational findings support policies to reduce mortality both through improving socio-economic circumstances and increasing education, and by altering intermediaries, such as lifestyle behaviours and morbidities.

Anti-rods and rings (anti-RR) antibody induction is related to the combination of interferon and ribavirin in the treatment of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. If the main factor leading to this autoimmune reaction is the combination of these drugs, is not well known, but in vitro studies shows that ribavirin alone can induce rods and rings structures. New direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) permit HCV treatment without needing interferon but may be associated with ribavirin in the most difficult-to-treat patients. The aim of this study is to evaluate the occurrence of anti-RR in patients with chronic HCV infection, before and after 12 weeks of treatment with DAAs, with and without ribavirin. From Jun 2016 to Oct 2017, 52 HCV-infected patients were screened for anti-RR before and after DAA therapy, including sofosbuvir, daclatasvir, simeprevir, and ribavirin. Serum samples were analyzed using indirect immunofluorescence. The anti-RR was present in 11 (21%) of the 52 patients (51.9% male and mean age of 59.1 years) before using DAAs. All of them had been previously treated and previous exposed to interferon/ribavirin, with exposure time to ribavirin associated with the presence of anti-RR. After 12 weeks of DAA treatment, 3 patients (5.7%) developed the antibody in low titers, and two of them (66%) were interferon/ribavirin experienced. Only one of the 29 naïve patients (3.44%) developed anti-RR during the current treatment. Anti-RR was present in patients previously treated with interferon/ribavirin and can emerge after DAA treatment probably at a lower frequency than after interferon/ribavirin treatment.

We thank the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, the Netherlands, for their contribution to, and ongoing support of, the EPIC Study. We thank Aude De Bruycker for her graphical support., (1) Background: Methyl-group donors (MGDs), including folate, choline, betaine, and methionine, may influence breast cancer (BC) risk through their role in one-carbon metabolism; (2) Methods: We studied the relationship between dietary intakes of MGDs and BC risk, adopting data from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort; (3) Results: 318,686 pre- and postmenopausal women were followed between enrolment in 1992–2000 and December 2013–December 2015. Dietary MGD intakes were estimated at baseline through foodfrequency questionnaires. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to quantify the association between dietary intake of MGDs, measured both as a calculated score based on their sum and individually, and BC risk. Subgroup analyses were performed by hormone receptor status, menopausal status, and level of alcohol intake. During a mean follow-up time of 14.1 years, 13,320 women with malignant BC were identified. No associations were found between dietary intakes of the MGD score or individual MGDs and BC risk. However, a potential U-shaped relationship was observed between dietary folate intake and overall BC risk, suggesting an inverse association for intakes up to 350 µg/day compared to a reference intake of 205 µg/day. No statistically significant differences in the associations were observed by hormone receptor status, menopausal status, or level of alcohol intake; (4) Conclusions: There was no strong evidence for an association between MGDs involved in one-carbon metabolism and BC risk. However, a potential U-shaped trend was suggested for dietary folate intake and BC risk. Further research is needed to clarify this association., Research Foundation Flanders (FWO, 189019N), Research Foundation Flanders (FWO, V427019N), International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, NIHR Imperial Biomedical Research Center (BRC), Danish Cancer Society (Denmark), Ligue Contre le Cancer, Institut Gustave Roussy, Mutuelle Générale de l’Education Nationale, Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM) (France), German Cancer Aid, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), German Institute of Human Nutrition Potsdam Rehbruecke (DIfE), Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) (Germany), Associazione Italiana per la Ricerca sul Cancro-AIRC-Italy, Compagnia di SanPaolo and National Research Council (Italy), Dutch Ministry of Public Health, Welfare and Sports (VWS), Netherlands Cancer Registry (NKR), LK Research Funds, Dutch Prevention Funds, Dutch ZON (Zorg Onderzoek Nederland), World Cancer Research Fund (WCRF), Statistics Netherlands (The Netherlands), Health Research Fund (FIS)—Instituto de Salud Carlos III (ISCIII), Regional Governments of Andalucía, Asturias, Basque Country, Murcia and Navarra, and the Catalan Institute of Oncology—ICO (Spain), Swedish Cancer Society, Swedish Research Council and County Councils of Skåne and Västerbotten (Sweden), Cancer Research UK (14136 to EPIC-Norfolk; C8221/A29017 to EPIC-Oxford), Medical Research Council (1000143 to EPIC-Norfolk; MR/M012190/1 to EPIC-Oxford), (United Kingdom)

Background Retirement is a life-course transition likely to affect, through different mechanisms, behavioural risk factors’ patterns and, ultimately, health outcomes. We assessed the impact of transitioning to retirement on lifestyle habits and perceived health status in a nationwide cohort of Italian adults. Methods We analysed data from a large cohort of Italian adults aged 55–70, derived from linking six waves of the Participation, Labour, Unemployment Survey (PLUS), a national survey representative of the Italian workforce population, conducted between 2010 and 2018. We estimated relative-risk ratios (RRR) of transition to retirement and their corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for selected behavioural risk factors and health outcomes using multivariable logistic regression models. We used propensity score matching (PSM) to account for potential confounders. Results We included 5169 subjects in the study population, of which 1653 retired between 2010 and 2018 (exposed, 32%). Transition to retirement was associated with a 36% increased probability of practising sports (RRR 1.36, 95% CI 1.12–1.64). No statistically significant changes were reported for smoking habit (current smoker RRR: 1.18, 95% CI 0.94–1.46) and BMI (overweight/obese RRR: 0.96, 95% CI 0.81–1.15). Overall, retiring was associated with improved self-rated health status (RRR 1.26, 95% CI 1.02–1.58). Conclusion Individual data-linkage of multiple waves of the PLUS can offer great insight to inform healthy ageing policies in Italy and Europe. Transition to retirement has an independent effect on perceived health status, physical activity and selected behavioural risk factors. It should be identified as a target moment for preventive interventions, with particular reference to primary prevention so as to promote health and wellbeing in older ages.

International audience; Obesity is a risk factor for several major cancers. Associations of weight change in middle adulthood with cancer risk, however, are less clear. We examined the association of change in weight and body mass index (BMI) category during middle adulthood with 42 cancers, using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort. Of 241 323 participants (31% men), 20% lost and 32% gained weight (>0.4 to 5.0 kg/year) during 6.9 years (average). During 8.0 years of follow-up after the second weight assessment, 20 960 incident cancers were ascertained. Independent of baseline BMI, weight gain (per one kg/year increment) was positively associated with cancer of the corpus uteri (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.14; 95% confidence interval: 1.05-1.23). Compared to stable weight (±0.4 kg/year), weight gain (>0.4 to 5.0 kg/year) was positively associated with cancers of the gallbladder and bile ducts (HR = 1.41; 1.01-1.96), postmenopausal breast (HR = 1.08; 1.00-1.16) and thyroid (HR = 1.40; 1.04-1.90). Compared to maintaining normal weight, maintaining overweight or obese BMI (World Health Organisation categories) was positively associated with most obesity-related cancers. Compared to maintaining the baseline BMI category, weight gain to a higher BMI category was positively associated with cancers of the postmenopausal breast (HR = 1.19; 1.06-1.33), ovary (HR = 1.40; 1.04-1.91), corpus uteri (HR = 1.42; 1.06-1.91), kidney (HR = 1.80; 1.20-2.68) and pancreas in men (HR = 1.81; 1.11-2.95). Losing weight to a lower BMI category, however, was inversely associated with cancers of the corpus uteri (HR = 0.40; 0.23-0.69) and colon (HR = 0.69; 0.52-0.92). Our findings support avoiding weight gain and encouraging weight loss in middle adulthood.

This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Stepien et.al (2021). Prediagnostic alterations in circulating bile acid profiles in the development of hepatocellular carcinoma. International Journal of Cancer, which has been published in final form at https://doi.org/10.1002/ijc.33885. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Use of Self-Archived Versions. This article may not be enhanced, enriched or otherwise transformed into a derivative work, without express permission from Wiley or by statutory rights under applicable legislation. Copyright notices must not be removed, obscured or modified. The article must be linked to Wiley’s version of record on Wiley Online Library and any embedding, framing or otherwise making available the article or pages thereof by third parties from platforms, services and websites other than Wiley Online Library must be prohibited. Bile acids (BAs) play different roles in cancer development. Some are carcinogenic and BA signaling is also involved in various metabolic, inflammatory and immune-related processes. The liver is the primary site of BA synthesis. Liver dysfunction and microbiome compositional changes, such as during hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development, may modulate BA metabolism increasing concentration of carcinogenic BAs. Observations from prospective cohorts are sparse. We conducted a study (233 HCC case-control pairs) nested within a large observational prospective cohort with blood samples taken at recruitment when healthy with follow-up over time for later cancer development. A targeted metabolomics method was used to quantify 17 BAs (primary/secondary/tertiary; conjugated/unconjugated) in prediagnostic plasma. Odd ratios (OR) for HCC risk associations were calculated by multivariable conditional logistic regression models. Positive HCC risk associations were observed for the molar sum of all BAs (ORdoubling = 2.30, 95% confidence intervals [CI]: 1.76-3.00), and choline- and taurine-conjugated BAs. Relative concentrations of BAs showed positive HCC risk associations for glycoholic acid and most taurine-conjugated BAs. We observe an association between increased HCC risk and higher levels of major circulating BAs, from several years prior to tumor diagnosis and after multivariable adjustment for confounders and liver functionality. Increase in BA concentration is accompanied by a shift in BA profile toward higher proportions of taurine-conjugated BAs, indicating early alterations of BA metabolism with HCC development. Future studies are needed to assess BA profiles for improved stratification of patients at high HCC risk and to determine whether supplementation with certain BAs may ameliorate liver dysfunction.

Background Prior research suggested a differential association of 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) metabolites with type 2 diabetes (T2D), with total 25(OH)D and 25(OH)D3 inversely associated with T2D, but the epimeric form (C3-epi-25(OH)D3) positively associated with T2D. Whether or not these observational associations are causal remains uncertain. We aimed to examine the potential causality of these associations using Mendelian randomisation (MR) analysis. Methods and findings We performed a meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies for total 25(OH)D (N = 120,618), 25(OH)D3 (N = 40,562), and C3-epi-25(OH)D3 (N = 40,562) in participants of European descent (European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition [EPIC]–InterAct study, EPIC-Norfolk study, EPIC-CVD study, Ely study, and the SUNLIGHT consortium). We identified genetic variants for MR analysis to investigate the causal association of the 25(OH)D metabolites with T2D (including 80,983 T2D cases and 842,909 non-cases). We also estimated the observational association of 25(OH)D metabolites with T2D by performing random effects meta-analysis of results from previous studies and results from the EPIC-InterAct study. We identified 10 genetic loci associated with total 25(OH)D, 7 loci associated with 25(OH)D3 and 3 loci associated with C3-epi-25(OH)D3. Based on the meta-analysis of observational studies, each 1–standard deviation (SD) higher level of 25(OH)D was associated with a 20% lower risk of T2D (relative risk [RR]: 0.80; 95% CI 0.77, 0.84; p < 0.001), but a genetically predicted 1-SD increase in 25(OH)D was not significantly associated with T2D (odds ratio [OR]: 0.96; 95% CI 0.89, 1.03; p = 0.23); this result was consistent across sensitivity analyses. In EPIC-InterAct, 25(OH)D3 (per 1-SD) was associated with a lower risk of T2D (RR: 0.81; 95% CI 0.77, 0.86; p < 0.001), while C3-epi-25(OH)D3 (above versus below lower limit of quantification) was positively associated with T2D (RR: 1.12; 95% CI 1.03, 1.22; p = 0.006), but neither 25(OH)D3 (OR: 0.97; 95% CI 0.93, 1.01; p = 0.14) nor C3-epi-25(OH)D3 (OR: 0.98; 95% CI 0.93, 1.04; p = 0.53) was causally associated with T2D risk in the MR analysis. Main limitations include the lack of a non-linear MR analysis and of the generalisability of the current findings from European populations to other populations of different ethnicities. Conclusions Our study found discordant associations of biochemically measured and genetically predicted differences in blood 25(OH)D with T2D risk. The findings based on MR analysis in a large sample of European ancestry do not support a causal association of total 25(OH)D or 25(OH)D metabolites with T2D and argue against the use of vitamin D supplementation for the prevention of T2D., Using both observational and genetic analyses, Ju-Sheng Zheng and colleagues investigate the relationship between vitamin D metabolites and type 2 diabetes among European individuals., Author summary Why was this study done? There is ongoing uncertainty on whether the body’s vitamin D status indicated by blood 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) is relevant to the prevention of type 2 diabetes. There are conflicting findings from observational studies and a limited number of randomised controlled trials. Prior research did not distinguish between different metabolites of total 25(OH)D, including 25(OH)D3 and C3-epi-25(OH)D3, an isomer of 25(OH)D3. It is not clear whether the associations of 25(OH)D metabolites with type 2 diabetes are causal, with conflicting findings from prior Mendelian randomisation studies of total 25(OH)D and no previous Mendelian randomisation studies appraising 25(OH)D metabolites. What did the researchers do and find? The current research compared observational estimates of the association between 25(OH)D metabolites and incident type 2 diabetes with Mendelian randomisation estimates based on genetic instruments. Using multiple data sources, we performed genome-wide association studies among 120,618 individuals for total 25(OH)D, and among 40,562 individuals for the other vitamin D metabolites. Among participants of European descent, 10 genetic loci were identified for total 25(OH)D, 7 loci for 25(OH)D3 and 3 loci for C3-epi-25(OH)D3. In meta-analysis of observational studies, we found that each 1–standard deviation higher level of total 25(OH)D was associated with 20% lower risk of type 2 diabetes. The result was similar for 25(OH)D3, but for C3-epi-25(OH)D3, a positive association with type 2 diabetes was found. With up to 80,983 type 2 diabetes cases and 842,909 controls, we assessed the association of genetically predicted differences in total 25(OH)D and its metabolites with type 2 diabetes. Neither genetically predicted higher total 25(OH)D level nor genetically predicted higher levels of 25(OH)D metabolites were significantly associated with type 2 diabetes. What do these findings mean? There were conflicting findings for a link with type 2 diabetes for the observational analysis of biochemically measured 25(OH)D metabolites versus the genetically predicted levels of these metabolites. The null findings based on Mendelian randomisation analysis indicate that blood levels of 25(OH)D or its metabolites are not likely to be causal factors for the development of type 2 diabetes. The current findings together with other evidence from randomised controlled trials do not support the use of vitamin D supplementation for the prevention of type 2 diabetes.

OBJECTIVE There is sparse evidence for the association of suitable food substitutions for red and processed meat on the risk of type 2 diabetes. We modeled the association between replacing red and processed meat with other protein sources and the risk of type 2 diabetes and estimated its population impact. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS The European Prospective Investigation into Cancer (EPIC)-InterAct case cohort included 11,741 individuals with type 2 diabetes and a subcohort of 15,450 participants in eight countries. We modeled the replacement of self-reported red and processed meat with poultry, fish, eggs, legumes, cheese, cereals, yogurt, milk, and nuts. Country-specific hazard ratios (HRs) for incident type 2 diabetes were estimated by Prentice-weighted Cox regression and pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. RESULTS There was a lower hazard for type 2 diabetes for the modeled replacement of red and processed meat (50 g/day) with cheese (HR 0.90, 95% CI 0.83–0.97) (30 g/day), yogurt (0.90, 0.86–0.95) (70 g/day), nuts (0.90, 0.84–0.96) (10 g/day), or cereals (0.92, 0.88–0.96) (30 g/day) but not for replacements with poultry, fish, eggs, legumes, or milk. If a causal association is assumed, replacing red and processed meat with cheese, yogurt, or nuts could prevent 8.8%, 8.3%, or 7.5%, respectively, of new cases of type 2 diabetes. CONCLUSIONS Replacement of red and processed meat with cheese, yogurt, nuts, or cereals was associated with a lower rate of type 2 diabetes. Substituting red and processed meat by other protein sources may contribute to the prevention of incident type 2 diabetes in European populations.

The specific etiology of meniscal tears, including the mechanism of lesion, location, and orientation, is considered for its contribution to subsequent joint cytokine responsiveness, healing outcomes, and by extension, appropriate lesion-specific surgical remediation. Meniscal repair is desirable to reduce the probability of development of posttraumatic osteoarthritis (PTOA) which is strongly influenced by the coordinate generation of pro- and anti-inflammatory cytokines by the injured cartilage. We now present biochemical data on variation in cytokine levels arising from two particular meniscal tears: bucket-handle (BH) and posterior horn (PH) isolated meniscal tears. We selected these two groups due to the different clinical presentations. We measured the concentrations of TNF-α, IL-1β, IL-6, IL-8, and IL-10 in knee synovial fluid of 45 patients with isolated meniscal lesions (BH tear, n = 12 ; PH tear, n = 33 ). TNF-α levels were significantly ( p < 0.05 ) greater in the BH group compared with the PH group, whereas IL-1β levels were significantly greater ( p < 0.05 ) in the PH group compared with the BH group. Both BH and PH groups were consistent in presenting a positive correlation between concentrations of IL-6 and IL-1β. A fundamental difference in IL-10 responsiveness between the two groups was noted; specifically, levels of IL-10 were positively correlated with IL-6 in the BH group, whereas in the PH group, levels of IL-10 were positively correlated with IL-1β. Collectively, our data suggest a possible influence of the meniscal tear pattern to the articular cytokine responsiveness. This differential expression of inflammatory cytokines may influence the risk of developing PTOA in the long term.

BACKGROUND: the Covid-19 pandemic has provoked a huge of clinical and epidemiological research initiatives, especially in the most involved countries. However, this very large effort was characterized by several methodological weaknesses, both in the field of discovering effective treatments (with too many small and uncontrolled trials) and in the field of identifying preventable risks and prognostic factors (with too few large, representative and well-designed cohorts orcase-control studies). OBJECTIVES: in response to the fragmented and uncoordinatedresearch production on Covid-19, the italian Association of Epidemiology (AIE) stimulated the formation of a working group (WG) with the aims of identifying the most important gaps in knowledge and to propose a structured research agenda of clinical and epidemiological studies considered at high priority on Covid-19, including recommendations on the preferable methodology. METHODS: the WG was composed by 25 subjects, mainly epidemiologists, statisticians, and other experts in specific fields, who have voluntarily agreed to the proposal. The agreement on a list of main research questions and on the structure of the specific documents to be produced were defined through few meetings and cycles of document exchanges. RESULTS: twelve main research questions on Covid-19 were identified, covering aetiology, prognosis,interventions, follow-up and impact on general and specific populations (children, pregnant women). For each of them, a two-page form was developed, structured in: background, main topics, methods (with recommendations on preferred study design and warnings for bias prevention) and an essential bibliography. CONCLUSIONS: this research agenda represents an initial contribution to direct clinical and epidemiological research efforts on high priority topics with a focus on methodological aspects. Further development and refinements of this agenda by Public Health Authorities are encouraged.

This work was supported by the French National Cancer Institute (INCa SHSESP17, grant No. 2017-127 to N. Murphy). The coordination of EPIC is financially supported by International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) and also by the Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, which has additional infrastructure support provided by the NIHR Imperial Biomedical Research Centre (BRC). The national cohorts are supported by: Danish Cancer Society (Denmark); Ligue Contre le Cancer, Institut Gustave Roussy, Mutuelle Generale de l'Education Nationale, Institut National de la Sante et de la Recherche Medicale (INSERM) (France); German Cancer Aid, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), German Institute of Human Nutrition PotsdamRehbruecke (DIfE), Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) (Germany); Associazione Italiana per la Ricerca sul Cancro-AIRC-Italy, Compagnia di SanPaolo and National Research Council (Italy); Dutch Ministry of Public Health, Welfare and Sports (VWS), Netherlands Cancer Registry (NKR), LK Research Funds, Dutch Prevention Funds, Dutch ZON (Zorg Onderzoek Nederland), World Cancer Research Fund (WCRF), Statistics Netherlands (the Netherlands); Health Research Fund (FIS) - Instituto de Salud Carlos III (ISCIII), Regional Governments of Andalucia, Asturias, Basque Country, Murcia and Navarra, and the Catalan Institute of Oncology-ICO (Spain); Swedish Cancer Society, Swedish Research Council and County Councils of Ska degrees ne and V_asterbotten (Sweden); Cancer Research UK (14136 to EPIC-Norfolk; C8221/A29017 to EPIC-Oxford), Medical Research Council (1000143 to EPIC-Norfolk; MR/M012190/1 to EPIC-Oxford) (United Kingdom)., Background: Observational studies have consistently reported that postmenopausal hormone therapy use is associated with lower colon cancer risk, but epidemiologic studies examining the associations between circulating concentrations of endogenous estrogens and colorectal cancer have reported inconsistent results. Methods: We investigated the associations between circulating concentrations of estrone, estradiol, free estradiol, testosterone, free testosterone, androstenedione, dehydroepiandrosterone (DHEA), progesterone, and sex hormone–binding globulin (SHBG) with colon cancer risk in a nested case-control study of 1028 postmenopausal European women (512 colon cancer cases, 516 matched controls) who were noncurrent users of exogenous hormones at blood collection. Multivariable conditional logistic regression models were used to compute odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals to evaluate the association between circulating sex hormones and colon cancer risk. We also conducted a dose-response meta-analysis of prospective studies of circulating estrone and estradiol with colorectal, colon, and rectal cancer risk in postmenopausal women. All statistical tests were 2-sided. Results: In the multivariable model, a nonstatistically significantly positive relationship was found between circulating estrone and colon cancer risk (odds ratio per log2 1-unit increment¼1.17 [95% confidence interval¼1.00 to 1.38]; odds ratioquartile4-quartile1¼1.33 [95% confidence interval¼0.89 to 1.97], Ptrend¼.20). Circulating concentrations of estradiol, free estradiol, testosterone, free testosterone, androstenedione, DHEA, progesterone, and SHBG were not associated with colon cancer risk. In the doseresponse meta-analysis, no clear evidence of associations were found between circulating estradiol and estrone concentrations with colorectal, colon, and rectal cancer risk. Conclusion: Our observational and meta-analysis results do not support an association between circulating concentrations of endogenous sex hormones and colon or rectal cancer in postmenopausal women., French National Cancer Institute (INCa SHSESP17) 2017-127, World Health Organization, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, Danish Cancer Society, Ligue Contre le Cancer (France), Institut Gustave Roussy (France), Mutuelle Generale de l'Education Nationale (France), Institut National de la Sante et de la Recherche Medicale (Inserm), Deutsche Krebshilfe German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ) (Germany) German Institute of Human Nutrition Potsdam Rehbruecke (DIfE) (Germany), Federal Ministry of Education & Research (BMBF), Fondazione AIRC per la ricerca sul cancro, Compagnia di San Paolo Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (CNR), Netherlands Government, World Cancer Research Fund International (WCRF), Health Research Fund (FIS) - Instituto de Salud Carlos III (ISCIII) (Spain) Junta de Andalucia Regional Government of Asturias (Spain) Regional Government of Basque Country (Spain) Regional Government of Murcia (Spain) Regional Government of Navarra (Spain) Catalan Institute of Oncology-ICO (Spain), Swedish Cancer Society Swedish Research Council County Council of Skane (Sweden) County Council of Vasterbotten (Sweden), Cancer Research UK 14136 C8221/A29017 UK Research & Innovation (UKRI) Medical Research Council UK (MRC) 1000143 MR/M012190/1

BACKGROUND: Low-risk limits recommended for alcohol consumption vary substantially across different national guidelines. To define thresholds associated with lowest risk for all-cause mortality and cardiovascular disease, we studied individual-participant data from 599 912 current drinkers without previous cardiovascular disease.METHODS: We did a combined analysis of individual-participant data from three large-scale data sources in 19 high-income countries (the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration, EPIC-CVD, and the UK Biobank). We characterised dose–response associations and calculated hazard ratios (HRs) per 100 g per week of alcohol (12·5 units per week) across 83 prospective studies, adjusting at least for study or centre, age, sex, smoking, and diabetes. To be eligible for the analysis, participants had to have information recorded about their alcohol consumption amount and status (ie, non-drinker vs current drinker), plus age, sex, history of diabetes and smoking status, at least 1 year of follow-up after baseline, and no baseline history of cardiovascular disease. The main analyses focused on current drinkers, whose baseline alcohol consumption was categorised into eight predefined groups according to the amount in grams consumed per week. We assessed alcohol consumption in relation to all-cause mortality, total cardiovascular disease, and several cardiovascular disease subtypes. We corrected HRs for estimated long-term variability in alcohol consumption using 152 640 serial alcohol assessments obtained some years apart (median interval 5·6 years [5th–95th percentile 1·04–13·5]) from 71 011 participants from 37 studies.FINDINGS: In the 599 912 current drinkers included in the analysis, we recorded 40 310 deaths and 39 018 incident cardiovascular disease events during 5·4 million person-years of follow-up. For all-cause mortality, we recorded a positive and curvilinear association with the level of alcohol consumption, with the minimum mortality risk around or below 100 g per week. Alcohol consumption was roughly linearly associated with a higher risk of stroke (HR per 100 g per week higher consumption 1·14, 95% CI, 1·10–1·17), coronary disease excluding myocardial infarction (1·06, 1·00–1·11), heart failure (1·09, 1·03–1·15), fatal hypertensive disease (1·24, 1·15–1·33); and fatal aortic aneurysm (1·15, 1·03–1·28). By contrast, increased alcohol consumption was log-linearly associated with a lower risk of myocardial infarction (HR 0·94, 0·91–0·97). In comparison to those who reported drinking >0–≤100 g per week, those who reported drinking >100–≤200 g per week, >200–≤350 g per week, or >350 g per week had lower life expectancy at age 40 years of approximately 6 months, 1–2 years, or 4–5 years, respectively.INTERPRETATION: In current drinkers of alcohol in high-income countries, the threshold for lowest risk of all-cause mortality was about 100 g/week. For cardiovascular disease subtypes other than myocardial infarction, there were no clear risk thresholds below which lower alcohol consumption stopped being associated with lower disease risk. These data support limits for alcohol consumption that are lower than those recommended in most current guidelines.FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, National Institute for Health Research, European Union Framework 7, and European Research Council.

Purpose Excess iron is involved in the development of non-communicable diseases such as cancer, type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular conditions. We aimed to describe the prevalence of excess iron and its determinants in healthy European adults. Methods Sociodemographic, lifestyle, iron status, dietary information, and HFE genotyping were obtained from controls from the nested case–control study EPIC-EurGast study. High sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) was measured to address possible systemic inflammation. Descriptive and multivariate analyses were used to assess iron status and its determinants. Results Out of the 828 participants (median age: 58.7 years), 43% were females. Median serum ferritin and prevalence of excess iron were 143.7 µg/L and 35.2% in males, respectively, and 77 µg/L and 20% in females, both increasing with latitude across Europe. Prevalence of HFE C282Y mutation was significantly higher in Northern and Central Europe (~ 11%) than in the South (5%). Overweight/obesity, age, and daily alcohol and heme iron intake were independent determinants for iron status, with sex differences even after excluding participants with hsCRP > 5 mg/L. Obese males showed a greater consumption of alcohol, total and red meat, and heme iron, compared with those normal weight. Conclusion Obesity, higher alcohol and heme iron consumption were the main risk factors for excess iron in males while only age was associated with iron overload in females. Weight control and promoting healthy lifestyle may help prevent iron overload, especially in obese people. Further research is needed to clarify determinants of excess iron in the healthy adult population, helping to reduce the associated comorbidities.

Aims/hypothesis Type 1 and type 2 diabetes differ with respect to pathophysiological factors such as beta cell function, insulin resistance and phenotypic appearance, but there may be overlap between the two forms of diabetes. However, there are relatively few prospective studies that have characterised the relationship between autoimmunity and incident diabetes. We investigated associations of antibodies against the 65 kDa isoform of GAD (GAD65) with type 1 diabetes and type 2 diabetes genetic risk scores and incident diabetes in adults in European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-InterAct, a case-cohort study nested in the EPIC cohort. Methods GAD65 antibodies were analysed in EPIC participants (over 40 years of age and free of known diabetes at baseline) by radioligand binding assay in a random subcohort (n = 15,802) and in incident diabetes cases (n = 11,981). Type 1 diabetes and type 2 diabetes genetic risk scores were calculated. Associations between GAD65 antibodies and incident diabetes were estimated using Prentice-weighted Cox regression. Results GAD65 antibody positivity at baseline was associated with development of diabetes during a median follow-up time of 10.9 years (HR for GAD65 antibody positive vs negative 1.78; 95% CI 1.43, 2.20) after adjustment for sex, centre, physical activity, smoking status and education. The genetic risk score for type 1 diabetes but not type 2 diabetes was associated with GAD65 antibody positivity in both the subcohort (OR per SD genetic risk 1.24; 95% CI 1.03, 1.50) and incident cases (OR 1.97; 95% CI 1.72, 2.26) after adjusting for age and sex. The risk of incident diabetes in those in the top tertile of the type 1 diabetes genetic risk score who were also GAD65 antibody positive was 3.23 (95% CI 2.10, 4.97) compared with all other individuals, suggesting that 1.8% of incident diabetes in adults was attributable to this combination of risk factors. Conclusions/interpretation Our study indicates that incident diabetes in adults has an element of autoimmune aetiology. Thus, there might be a reason to re-evaluate the present subclassification of diabetes in adulthood.

No association between polymorphisms in CYP2E1, GSTM1, NAT1, NAT2 and the risk of gastric adenocarcinoma in the European prospective investigation into cancer and nutrition.

the emergency due to SARS-CoV-2 pandemic struck the national and regional health system that needed an effort to reorganise and increase resources to cope with a sudden, uncertain, and previously unknown situation. This study was conducted in the immediate aftermath of this difficult period.to describe clinical characteristics, short-term outcomes, and management of SARS-CoV-2 positive patients that accessed the emergency department (ED) of the San Luigi Gonzaga hospital of Orbassano (Turin district, Piedmont Region, Northern Italy) in March and April 2020. Furthermore, this study aimed at investigating if a difference in patients characteristics, clinical management, and outcomes was present during time.comparison of different periods in a clinical cohort.for each patient who accessed the ED and tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 swab, the ED medical record was collected and a descriptive analysis was performed on demographical characteristics, pre-existing comorbidities, parameters measured at triage, imaging exams results, lab tests results, separately for patients admitted at the ED in four different periods.discharge from ED, admission to hospital wards (low and high intensity of care), short term in-hospital mortality, hospital length of stay. The association between patients' characteristics and the main outcomes was measured using multivariable logistic models.age of patients increased significantly from March to April, together with female prevalence and associated comorbid conditions. A significant difference in symptoms at presentation was not observed nor it was in laboratory test results. Severity at triage and need of intensive care resources were higher in the first weeks, together with the typical clinical presentation with respiratory failure and imaging with signs of bilateral interstitial pneumonia. Accordingly, in-hospital mortality was higher in the first period. Nevertheless, nearly half of patients in the first period were discharged directly from ED showing mild COVID-19 cases. On the contrary, in April an increasing need of hospitalisation in low intensity of care beds was observed, whereas mild cases stopped to access the ED.the results of this study suggest that in few weeks of COVID-19 epidemic both management of the patients at the hospital level - and probably at territorial level resulting in a different population who accessed to the ED - and the clinical characteristics of the COVID-19 patients changed.

to explore clinical and epidemiological characteristics associated with an imaging feature of COVID-19 pneumonia at disease onset, in order to identify factors that may be evaluable by general practitioners at patient's home, and which may lead to identify a more severe disease, needing hospitalization.this is a retrospective/prospective observational hospital cohort.the study population includes all patients consecutively admitted to the emergency department of Città della salute e della scienza University Hospital from 01.03 to 31.05.2020 with a confirmed diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 infection.patients were classified in two groups according to the findings of X-ray imaging, lung ultrasound and chest computer tomography, as pneumonia or not pneumonia patients.in multivariable analysis, factors most strongly associated with emergency department admission with pneumonia were age, oxygen saturation90% (adj OR 4.16 ;95%CI 1.44-12.07), respiratory rate24 breaths/min (adj OR 6.50; 95%CI 2.36-17.87), fever ≥38° (adj OR 3.05; 95%CI 1.53-6.08) and the presence of gastroenteric symptoms (vomiting and diarrhea). A delay (7 days) between the appearance of the initial lung symptoms (cough and dyspnea) and the admission to the emergency department was also related to a higher probability of receiving a positive imaging report (OR 4.99; 95%CI 2,02-12,34).in order to reorganize the management of COVID-19 patients in Italy, in view of the risk of a second wave of epidemic or of local outbreaks, it would be desirable to relocate the triage, and possibly the patient's care, from hospital to home. In this scenario it is important to identify all symptoms and signs associated with COVID-19 pneumonia that would facilitate the decision-making process of GPs leading to patients hospitalization.

BACKGROUND: Vitamin B6 insufficiency has been linked to increased risk of cancer and other chronic diseases. The circulating concentration of pyridoxal 5'-phosphate (PLP) is a commonly used measure of vitamin B6 status. Ratios of substrates indicating PLP coenzymatic function and metabolism may be useful complementary measures to further explore the role of vitamin B6 in health. OBJECTIVES: We explored the sensitivity of 5 outcomes, namely PLP concentration, homocysteine:cysteine (Hcy:Cys), cystathionine:cysteine (Cysta:Cys), the 3´-hydroxykynurenine ratio (HKr), and the 4-pyridoxic acid ratio (PAr) to vitamin B6 intake as well as personal and lifestyle characteristics. MEDTHODS: Dietary intake and biomarker data were collected from participants from 3 nested case-control studies within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). Bayesian regression models assessed the associations of the 5 biomarker outcomes with vitamin B6 intake and personal and lifestyle covariates. Analogous models examined the relations of Hcy:Cys, Cysta:Cys, and HKr with PLP. RESULTS: In total, 4608 participants were included in the analyses. Vitamin B6 intake was most strongly associated with PLP, moderately associated with Hcy:Cys, Cysta:Cys, and HKr, and not associated with PAr (fold change in marker given a doubling of vitamin B6 intake: PLP 1.60 [95% credible interval (CrI): 1.50, 1.71]; Hcy:Cys 0.87 [95% CrI: 0.84, 0.90]; Cysta:Cys 0.89 [95% CrI: 0.84, 0.94]; HKr 0.88 [95% CrI: 0.85, 0.91]; PAr 1.00 [95% CrI: 0.95, 1.05]). PAr was most sensitive to age, and HKr was least sensitive to BMI and alcohol intake. Sex and menopause status were strongly associated with all 5 markers. CONCLUSIONS: We found that 5 different markers, capturing different aspects of vitamin B6-related biological processes, varied in their associations with vitamin B6 intake and personal and lifestyle predictors. ispartof: AMERICAN JOURNAL OF CLINICAL NUTRITION vol:114 issue:1 pages:338-347 ispartof: location:United States status: published

This study examines the correlation of acute and habitual dietary intake of flavan-3-ol monomers, proanthocyanidins, theaflavins, and their main food sources with the urinary concentrations of (+)-catechin and (-)-epicatechin in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study (EPIC). Participants (N = 419, men and women) provided 24-h urine samples and completed a 24-h dietary recall (24-HDR) on the same day. Acute and habitual dietary data were collected using a standardized 24-HDR software and a validated dietary questionnaire, respectively. Intake of flavan-3-ols was estimated using the Phenol-Explorer database. Concentrations of (+)-catechin and (-)-epicatechin in 24-h urine were analyzed using tandem mass spectrometry after enzymatic deconjugation. Simple and partial Spearman’s correlations showed that urinary concentrations of (+)-catechin, (-)-epicatechin and their sum were more strongly correlated with acute than with habitual intake of individual and total monomers (acute rpartial = 0.13–0.54, p &lt, 0.05, and habitual rpartial = 0.14–0.28, p &lt, 0.01), proanthocyanidins (acute rpartial = 0.24–0.49, p &lt, 0.001, and habitual rpartial = 0.10–0.15, p &lt, 0.05), theaflavins (acute rpartial = 0.22–0.31, p &lt, and habitual rpartial = 0.20–0.26, p &lt, 0.01), and total flavan-3-ols (acute rpartial = 0.40–0.48, p &lt, and habitual rpartial = 0.23–0.33, p &lt, 0.001). Similarly, urinary concentrations of flavan-3-ols were weakly correlated with both acute (rpartial = 0.12–0.30, p &lt, 0.05) and habitual intake (rpartial = 0.10–0.27, p &lt, 0.05) of apple and pear, stone fruits, berries, chocolate and chocolate products, cakes and pastries, tea, herbal tea, wine, red wine, and beer and cider. Moreover, all comparable correlations were stronger for urinary (-)-epicatechin than for (+)-catechin. In conclusion, our data support the use of urinary concentrations of (+)-catechin and (-)-epicatechin, especially as short-term nutritional biomarkers of dietary catechin, epicatechin and total flavan-3-ol monomers.

International audience; The role of chronic inflammation on breast cancer (BC) risk remains unclear beyond as an underlying mechanism of obesity and physical activity. We aimed to evaluate the association between the inflammatory potential of the diet and risk of BC overall, according to menopausal status and tumour subtypes. Within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort, 318,686 women were followed for 14 years, among whom 13,246 incident BC cases were identified. The inflammatory potential of the diet was characterized by an inflammatory score of the diet (ISD). Multivariable Cox regression models were used to assess the potential effect of the ISD on BC risk by means of hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). ISD was positively associated with BC risk. Each increase of one standard deviation (1-Sd) of the score increased by 4% the risk of BC (HR = 1.04; 95% CI 1.01–1.07). Women in the highest quintile of the ISD (indicating a most pro-inflammatory diet) had a 12% increase in risk compared with those in the lowest quintile (HR = 1.12; 95% CI 1.04–1.21) with a significant trend. The association was strongest among premenopausal women, with an 8% increased risk for 1-Sd increase in the score (HR = 1.08; 95% CI 1.01–1.14). The pattern of the association was quite homogeneous by BC subtypes based on hormone receptor status. There were no significant interactions between ISD and body mass index, physical activity, or alcohol consumption. Women consuming more pro-inflammatory diets as measured by ISD are at increased risk for BC, especially premenopausal women.

Purpose: Rhabdomyosarcoma (RMS) has a worse prognosis in adults than in children, but there is evidence of a better outcome in the former if treated using a pediatric-like approach. This study desc...

Background Randomised trials of vitamin D supplementation for cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality have generally reported null findings. However, generalisability of results to individuals with low vitamin D status is unclear. We aimed to characterise dose-response relationships between 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25[OH]D) concentrations and risk of coronary heart disease, stroke, and all-cause mortality in observational and Mendelian randomisation frameworks. Methods Observational analyses were undertaken using data from 33 prospective studies comprising 500 962 individuals with no known history of coronary heart disease or stroke at baseline. Mendelian randomisation analyses were performed in four population-based cohort studies (UK Biobank, EPIC-CVD, and two Copenhagen population-based studies) comprising 386 406 middle-aged individuals of European ancestries, including 33 546 people who developed coronary heart disease, 18 166 people who had a stroke, and 27 885 people who died. Primary outcomes were coronary heart disease, defined as fatal ischaemic heart disease (International Classification of Diseases 10th revision code I20-I25) or non-fatal myocardial infarction (I21-I23); stroke, defined as any cerebrovascular disease (I60-I69); and all-cause mortality. Findings Observational analyses suggested inverse associations between incident coronary heart disease, stroke, and all-cause mortality outcomes with 25(OH)D concentration at low 25(OH)D concentrations. In population-wide genetic analyses, there were no associations of genetically-predicted 25(OH)D with coronary heart disease, stroke, or all-cause mortality. However, for the participants with vitamin D deficiency (25[OH]D concentration Interpretation Stratified Mendelian randomisation analyses suggest a causal relationship between 25(OH)D concentrations and mortality for individuals with low vitamin D status. Our findings have implications for the design of vitamin D supplementation trials, and potential disease prevention strategies. Funding British Heart Foundation, Medical Research Council, National Institute for Health Research, Health Data Research UK, Cancer Research UK, and International Agency for Research on Cancer.

Background Food biodiversity, encompassing the variety of plants, animals, and other organisms consumed as food and drink, has intrinsic potential to underpin diverse, nutritious diets and improve Earth system resilience. Dietary species richness (DSR), which is recommended as a crosscutting measure of food biodiversity, has been positively associated with the micronutrient adequacy of diets in women and young children in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). However, the relationships between DSR and major health outcomes have yet to be assessed in any population. Methods and findings We examined the associations between DSR and subsequent total and cause-specific mortality among 451,390 adults enrolled in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study (1992 to 2014, median follow-up: 17 years), free of cancer, diabetes, heart attack, or stroke at baseline. Usual dietary intakes were assessed at recruitment with country-specific dietary questionnaires (DQs). DSR of an individual’s yearly diet was calculated based on the absolute number of unique biological species in each (composite) food and drink. Associations were assessed by fitting multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression models. In the EPIC cohort, 2 crops (common wheat and potato) and 2 animal species (cow and pig) accounted for approximately 45% of self-reported total dietary energy intake [median (P10–P90): 68 (40 to 83) species consumed per year]. Overall, higher DSR was inversely associated with all-cause mortality rate. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) comparing total mortality in the second, third, fourth, and fifth (highest) quintiles (Qs) of DSR to the first (lowest) Q indicate significant inverse associations, after stratification by sex, age, and study center and adjustment for smoking status, educational level, marital status, physical activity, alcohol intake, and total energy intake, Mediterranean diet score, red and processed meat intake, and fiber intake [HR (95% CI): 0.91 (0.88 to 0.94), 0.80 (0.76 to 0.83), 0.69 (0.66 to 0.72), and 0.63 (0.59 to 0.66), respectively; PWald < 0.001 for trend]. Absolute death rates among participants in the highest and lowest fifth of DSR were 65.4 and 69.3 cases/10,000 person-years, respectively. Significant inverse associations were also observed between DSR and deaths due to cancer, heart disease, digestive disease, and respiratory disease. An important study limitation is that our findings were based on an observational cohort using self-reported dietary data obtained through single baseline food frequency questionnaires (FFQs); thus, exposure misclassification and residual confounding cannot be ruled out. Conclusions In this large Pan-European cohort, higher DSR was inversely associated with total and cause-specific mortality, independent of sociodemographic, lifestyle, and other known dietary risk factors. Our findings support the potential of food (species) biodiversity as a guiding principle of sustainable dietary recommendations and food-based dietary guidelines., Dr. Giles T. Hanley-Cook and colleagues, analyzed data from a prospective cohort study to investigate the association between food biodiversity, and total and cause-specific mortality in nine European countries., Author summary Why was this study done? Facilitating populations to transition to diets that are both nutritious and sustainable is a key challenge for human and environmental health. Dietary (between food group) diversity is increasingly advocated within the framework of dietary recommendations and food-based dietary guidelines. Food biodiversity, defined as the variety of plants, animals, and other organisms that are consumed between and within food groups globally, is a potential lever for improved public and planetary health. Nevertheless, scientific evidence is a prerequisite to understand the associations between metrics of food biodiversity and major health outcomes. Thus far, evidence regarding the positive association between dietary species richness (DSR), i.e., the absolute number of unique species consumed by an individual, and micronutrient adequacy of diets is limited to low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). What did the researchers do and find? This study assessed the relationships between DSR and all-cause and cause-specific mortality in the large and diverse European population that constitutes the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort, including 451,390 adults from 9 European countries with 46,627 recorded deaths between 1992 and 2014. In addition, this study provides a picture of the usual consumption of food and beverage species across 9 European countries. Higher DSR was inversely associated with total mortality rate and cause-specific deaths due to cancer, heart disease, respiratory disease, and digestive disease, independent of other established components of diet quality. Overall, self-reported total energy intake was derived from a narrow range of species. What do these findings mean? Our findings add to the evidence base on the relevance of food biodiversity, both between and within food groups, as a basis for public health strategies championing dietary (species) diversity in European countries. These findings will play a key role in communications about the merits of biodiversity stewardship, in the context of ongoing European/global debate on nutritious and sustainable diets for a stable Earth system.

Recent evidence suggested a weak relationship between alcohol consumption and pancreatic cancer (PC) risk. In this study, the association between lifetime and baseline alcohol intakes and the risk of PC was evaluated, including the type of alcoholic beverages and potential interaction with smoking. Within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study, 1,283 incident PC (57% women) were diagnosed from 476,106 cancer-free participants, followed up for 14 years. Amounts of lifetime and baseline alcohol were estimated through lifestyle and dietary questionnaires, respectively. Cox proportional hazard models with age as primary time variable were used to estimate PC hazard ratios (HR) and their 95% confidence interval (CI). Alcohol intake was positively associated with PC risk in men. Associations were mainly driven by extreme alcohol levels, with HRs comparing heavy drinkers (>60 g/day) to the reference category (0.1-4.9 g/day) equal to 1.77 (95% CI: 1.06, 2.95) and 1.63 (95% CI: 1.16, 2.29) for lifetime and baseline alcohol, respectively. Baseline alcohol intakes from beer (>40 g/day) and spirits/liquors (>10 g/day) showed HRs equal to 1.58 (95% CI: 1.07, 2.34) and 1.41 (95% CI: 1.03, 1.94), respectively, compared to the reference category (0.1-2.9 g/day). In women, HR estimates did not reach statistically significance. The alcohol and PC risk association was not modified by smoking status. Findings from a large prospective study suggest that baseline and lifetime alcohol intakes were positively associated with PC risk, with more apparent risk estimates for beer and spirits/liquors than wine intake. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Source at https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1002651. Background - Helping consumers make healthier food choices is a key issue for the prevention of cancer and other diseases. In many countries, political authorities are considering the implementation of a simplified labelling system to reflect the nutritional quality of food products. The Nutri-Score, a five-colour nutrition label, is derived from the Nutrient Profiling System of the British Food Standards Agency (modified version) (FSAm-NPS). How the consumption of foods with high/low FSAm-NPS relates to cancer risk has been studied in national/regional cohorts but has not been characterized in diverse European populations. Methods and findings - This prospective analysis included 471,495 adults from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC, 1992–2014, median follow-up: 15.3 y), among whom there were 49,794 incident cancer cases (main locations: breast, n = 12,063; prostate, n = 6,745; colon-rectum, n = 5,806). Usual food intakes were assessed with standardized country-specific diet assessment methods. The FSAm-NPS was calculated for each food/beverage using their 100-g content in energy, sugar, saturated fatty acid, sodium, fibres, proteins, and fruits/vegetables/legumes/nuts. The FSAm-NPS scores of all food items usually consumed by a participant were averaged to obtain the individual FSAm-NPS Dietary Index (DI) scores. Multi-adjusted Cox proportional hazards models were computed. A higher FSAm-NPS DI score, reflecting a lower nutritional quality of the food consumed, was associated with a higher risk of total cancer (HRQ5 versus Q1 = 1.07; 95% CI 1.03–1.10, P-trend < 0.001). Absolute cancer rates in those with high and low (quintiles 5 and 1) FSAm-NPS DI scores were 81.4 and 69.5 cases/10,000 person-years, respectively. Higher FSAm-NPS DI scores were specifically associated with higher risks of cancers of the colon-rectum, upper aerodigestive tract and stomach, lung for men, and liver and postmenopausal breast for women (all P < 0.05). The main study limitation is that it was based on an observational cohort using self-reported dietary data obtained through a single baseline food frequency questionnaire; thus, exposure misclassification and residual confounding cannot be ruled out. Conclusions - In this large multinational European cohort, the consumption of food products with a higher FSAm-NPS score (lower nutritional quality) was associated with a higher risk of cancer. This supports the relevance of the FSAm-NPS as underlying nutrient profiling system for front-of-pack nutrition labels, as well as for other public health nutritional measures.

Background Even though in situ breast cancer (BCIS) accounts for a large proportion of the breast cancers diagnosed, few studies have investigated potential risk factors for BCIS. Their results suggest that some established risk factors for invasive breast cancer have a similar impact on BCIS risk, but large population-based studies on lifestyle factors and BCIS risk are lacking. Thus, we investigated the association between lifestyle and BCIS risk within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort. Methods Lifestyle was operationalized by a score reflecting the adherence to the World Cancer Research Fund/American Institute for Cancer Research (WCRF/AICR) cancer prevention recommendations. The recommendations utilized in these analyses were the ones pertinent to healthy body weight, physical activity, consumption of plant-based foods, energy-dense foods, red and processed meat, and sugary drinks and alcohol, as well as the recommendation on breastfeeding. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to assess the association between lifestyle score and BCIS risk. The results were presented as hazard ratios (HR) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI). Results After an overall median follow-up time of 14.9 years, 1277 BCIS cases were diagnosed. Greater adherence to the WCRF/AICR cancer prevention recommendations was not associated with BCIS risk (HR = 0.98, 95% CI 0.93–1.03; per one unit of increase; multivariable model). An inverse association between the lifestyle score and BCIS risk was observed in study centers, where participants were recruited mainly via mammographic screening and attended additional screening throughout follow-up (HR = 0.85, 95% CI 0.73–0.99), but not in the remaining ones (HR = 0.99, 95% CI 0.94–1.05). Conclusions While we did not observe an overall association between lifestyle and BCIS risk, our results indicate that lifestyle is associated with BCIS risk among women recruited via screening programs and with regular screening participation. This suggests that a true inverse association between lifestyle habits and BCIS risk in the overall cohort may have been masked by a lack of information on screening attendance. The potential inverse association between lifestyle and BCIS risk in our analyses is consistent with the inverse associations between lifestyle scores and breast cancer risk reported from previous studies.

Background Existing evidence for the prospective association of vitamin D status with type 2 diabetes (T2D) is focused almost exclusively on circulating total 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] without distinction between its subtypes: nonepimeric and epimeric 25(OH)D3 stereoisomers, and 25(OH)D2, the minor component of 25(OH)D. We aimed to investigate the prospective associations of circulating levels of the sum and each of these three metabolites with incident T2D. Methods This analysis in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)–InterAct case-cohort study for T2D included 9671 incident T2D cases and 13,562 subcohort members. Plasma vitamin D metabolites were quantified by liquid chromatography–mass spectrometry. We used a multivariable Prentice-weighted Cox regression to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) of T2D for each metabolite. Analyses were performed separately within country, and estimates were combined across countries using random-effects meta-analysis. Results The mean concentrations (SD) of total 25(OH)D, nonepimeric 25(OH)D3, epimeric 25(OH)D3, and 25(OH)D2 were 41.1 (17.2), 40.7 (17.3), 2.13 (1.31), and 8.16 (6.52) nmol/L, respectively. Plasma total 25(OH)D and nonepimeric 25(OH)D3 were inversely associated with incident T2D [multivariable-adjusted HR per 1 SD = 0.81 (95% CI, 0.77, 0.86) for both variables], whereas epimeric 25(OH)D3 was positively associated [per 1 SD HR = 1.16 (1.09, 1.25)]. There was no statistically significant association with T2D for 25(OH)D2 [per 1 SD HR = 0.94 (0.76, 1.18)]. Conclusions Plasma nonepimeric 25(OH)D3 was inversely associated with incident T2D, consistent with it being the major metabolite contributing to total 25(OH)D. The positive association of the epimeric form of 25(OH)D3 with incident T2D provides novel information to assess the biological relevance of vitamin D epimerization and vitamin D subtypes in diabetes etiology., We examined the prospective association of plasma vitamin D metabolites with type 2 diabetes and found that the epimeric form of plasma 25(OH)D3 was positively associated with type 2 diabetes risk.

To better understand the role of individual and lifestyle factors in human disease, an exposome‐wide association study was performed to investigate within a single‐study anthropometry measures and lifestyle factors previously associated with B‐cell lymphoma (BCL). Within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and nutrition study, 2402 incident BCL cases were diagnosed from 475 426 participants that were followed‐up on average 14 years. Standard and penalized Cox regression models as well as principal component analysis (PCA) were used to evaluate 84 exposures in relation to BCL risk. Standard and penalized Cox regression models showed a positive association between anthropometric measures and BCL and multiple myeloma/plasma cell neoplasm (MM). The penalized Cox models additionally showed the association between several exposures from categories of physical activity, smoking status, medical history, socioeconomic position, diet and BCL and/or the subtypes. PCAs confirmed the individual associations but also showed additional observations. The PC5 including anthropometry, was positively associated with BCL, diffuse large B‐cell lymphoma (DLBCL) and MM. There was a significant positive association between consumption of sugar and confectionary (PC11) and follicular lymphoma risk, and an inverse association between fish and shellfish and Vitamin D (PC15) and DLBCL risk. The PC1 including features of the Mediterranean diet and diet with lower inflammatory score showed an inverse association with BCL risk, while the PC7, including dairy, was positively associated with BCL and DLBCL risk. Physical activity (PC10) was positively associated with DLBCL risk among women. This study provided informative insights on the etiology of BCL., What's new? The “exposome” includes all non‐genetic exposures (e.g. diet, viral, environmental, etc.), with the goal of understanding how those exposures may affect an individual's health. In this study, the authors used a technique called “EWAS” (exposome‐wide association study) to identify multiple factors that are associated with B‐cell lymphoma (BCL) risk. Their results confirm both previously reported risk factors and protective factors. In addition, they identify several previously unknown associations. These new insights, gained via the analysis of multiple exposures, suggest that traditional single‐factor approaches may be suboptimal compared with an EWAS approach.

Background: Bilirubin, a byproduct of hemoglobin breakdown and purported anti-oxidant, is thought to be cancer preventive. We conducted complementary serological and Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses to investigate whether alterations in circulating levels of bilirubin are associated with risk of colorectal cancer (CRC). We decided a priori to perform analyses separately in men and women based on suggestive evidence that associations may differ by sex. Methods: In a case-control study nested in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC), pre-diagnostic unconjugated bilirubin (UCB, the main component of total bilirubin) concentrations were measured by high-performance liquid chromatography in plasma samples of 1386 CRC cases and their individually matched controls. Additionally, 115 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) robustly associated (P < 5 × 10−8) with circulating total bilirubin were instrumented in a 2-sample MR to test for a potential causal effect of bilirubin on CRC risk in 52,775 CRC cases and 45,940 matched controls in the Genetics and Epidemiology of Colorectal Cancer Consortium (GECCO), the Colon Cancer Family Registry (CCFR), and the Colorectal Transdisciplinary (CORECT) study. Results: The associations between circulating UCB levels and CRC risk differed by sex (Pheterogeneity = 0.008). Among men, higher levels of UCB were positively associated with CRC risk (odds ratio [OR] = 1.19, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.04–1.36; per 1-SD increment of log-UCB). In women, an inverse association was observed (OR = 0.86 (0.76–0.97)). In the MR analysis of the main UGT1A1 SNP (rs6431625), genetically predicted higher levels of total bilirubin were associated with a 7% increase in CRC risk in men (OR = 1.07 (1.02–1.12); P = 0.006; per 1-SD increment of total bilirubin), while there was no association in women (OR = 1.01 (0.96–1.06); P = 0.73). Raised bilirubin levels, predicted by instrumental variables excluding rs6431625, were suggestive of an inverse association with CRC in men, but not in women. These differences by sex did not reach formal statistical significance (Pheterogeneity ≥ 0.2). Conclusions: Additional insight into the relationship between circulating bilirubin and CRC is needed in order to conclude on a potential causal role of bilirubin in CRC development.

Objective: To determine if the Food Standards Agency nutrient profiling system (FSAm-NPS), which grades the nutritional quality of food products and is used to derive the Nutri-Score front-of-packet label to guide consumers towards healthier food choices, is associated with mortality. Design: Population based cohort study. Setting: European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort from 23 centres in 10 European countries. Participants: 521 324 adults; at recruitment, country specific and validated dietary questionnaires were used to assess their usual dietary intakes. A FSAm-NPS score was calculated for each food item per 100 g content of energy, sugars, saturated fatty acids, sodium, fibre, and protein, and of fruit, vegetables, legumes, and nuts. The FSAm-NPS dietary index was calculated for each participant as an energy weighted mean of the FSAm-NPS score of all foods consumed. The higher the score the lower the overall nutritional quality of the diet. Main outcome measure: Associations between the FSAm-NPS dietary index score and mortality, assessed using multivariable adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression models. Results: After exclusions, 501 594 adults (median follow-up 17.2 years, 8 162 730 person years) were included in the analyses. Those with a higher FSAm-NPS dietary index score (highest versus lowest fifth) showed an increased risk of all cause mortality (n=53 112 events from non-external causes; hazard ratio 1.07, 95% confidence interval 1.03 to 1.10, PConclusions: In this large multinational European cohort, consuming foods with a higher FSAm-NPS score (lower nutritional quality) was associated with a higher mortality for all causes and for cancer and diseases of the circulatory, respiratory, and digestive systems, supporting the relevance of FSAm-NPS to characterise healthier food choices in the context of public health policies (eg, the Nutri-Score) for European populations. This is important considering ongoing discussions about the potential implementation of a unique nutrition labelling system at the European Union level.

Background: Age-related epigenetic dysregulations are associated with several diseases, including cancer. The number of stochastic epigenetic mutations (SEM) has been suggested as a biomarker of life-course accumulation of exposure-related DNA damage; however, the predictive role of SEMs in cancer has seldom been investigated. Methods: A SEM, at a given CpG site, was defined as an extreme outlier of DNA methylation value distribution across individuals. We investigated the association of the total number of SEMs with the risk of eight cancers in 4,497 case–control pairs nested in three prospective cohorts. Furthermore, we investigated whether SEMs were randomly distributed across the genome or enriched in functional genomic regions. Results: In the three-study meta-analysis, the estimated ORs per one-unit increase in log(SEM) from logistic regression models adjusted for age and cancer risk factors were 1.25; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.11–1.41 for breast cancer, and 1.23; 95% CI, 1.07–1.42 for lung cancer. In the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study, the OR for mature B-cell neoplasm was 1.46; 95% CI, 1.25–1.71. Enrichment analyses indicated that SEMs frequently occur in silenced genomic regions and in transcription factor binding sites regulated by EZH2 and SUZ12 (P < 0.0001 and P = 0.0005, respectively): two components of the polycomb repressive complex 2 (PCR2). Finally, we showed that PCR2-specific SEMs are generally more stable over time compared with SEMs occurring in the whole genome. Conclusions: The number of SEMs is associated with a higher risk of different cancers in prediagnostic blood samples. Impact: We identified a candidate biomarker for cancer early detection, and we described a carcinogenesis mechanism involving PCR2 complex proteins worthy of further investigations.

Aim: Inflammation represents a potential pathway through which socioeconomic position (SEP) is biologically embedded. Materials & methods: We analyzed inflammatory biomarkers in response to life course SEP by integrating multi-omics DNA-methylation, gene expression and protein level in 178 European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Italy participants. Results & conclusion: We identified 61 potential cis acting CpG loci whose methylation levels were associated with gene expression at a Bonferroni correction. We examined the relationships between life course SEP and these 61 cis-acting regulatory methylation sites individually and jointly using several scores. Less-advantaged SEP participants exhibit, later in life, a lower inflammatory methylome score, suggesting an overall increased expression of the corresponding inflammatory genes or proteins, supporting the hypothesis that SEP impacts adult physiology through inflammation.

Chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) is an incurable disease accounting for almost one-third of leukemias in the Western world. Aberrant expression of microRNAs (miRNAs) is a well-established characteristic of CLL, and the robust nature of miRNAs makes them eminently suitable liquid biopsy biomarkers. Using a nested case–control study within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC), the predictive values of five promising human miRNAs (hsa-miR-16-5p, hsa-miR-29a-3p, hsa-miR-150-5p, hsa-miR-155-5p and hsa-miR-223-3p), identified in a pilot study, were examined in serum of 224 CLL cases (diagnosed 3 months to 18 years after enrollment) and 224 matched controls using Taqman based assays. Conditional logistic regressions were applied to adjust for potential confounders. The median time from blood collection to CLL diagnosis was 10 years (p25–p75: 7–13 years). Overall, the upregulation of hsa-miR-150-5p, hsa-miR-155-5p and hsa-miR-29a-3p was associated with subsequent risk of CLL [OR1∆Ct-unit increase (95%CI) = 1.42 (1.18–1.72), 1.64 (1.31–2.04) and 1.75 (1.31–2.34) for hsa-miR-150-5p, hsa-miR-155-5p and hsa-miR-29a-3p, respectively] and the strongest associations were observed within 10 years of diagnosis. However, the predictive performance of these miRNAs was modest (area under the curve

Obesity has been associated with upper gastrointestinal cancers; however, there are limited prospective data on associations by subtype/subsite. Obesity can impact hormonal factors, which have been hypothesized to play a role in these cancers. We investigated anthropometric and reproductive factors in relation to esophageal and gastric cancer by subtype and subsite for 476,160 participants from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort. Multivariable hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using Cox models. During a mean follow‐up of 14 years, 220 esophageal adenocarcinomas (EA), 195 esophageal squamous cell carcinomas, 243 gastric cardia (GC) and 373 gastric noncardia (GNC) cancers were diagnosed. Body mass index (BMI) was associated with EA in men (BMI ≥30 vs. 18.5–25 kg/m2: HR = 1.94, 95% CI: 1.25–3.03) and women (HR = 2.66, 95% CI: 1.15–6.19); however, adjustment for waist‐to‐hip ratio (WHR) attenuated these associations. After mutual adjustment for BMI and HC, respectively, WHR and waist circumference (WC) were associated with EA in men (HR = 3.47, 95% CI: 1.99–6.06 for WHR >0.96 vs. 98 vs. 0.82 vs. 84 vs. 2 vs. 0) and age at first pregnancy and GNC (HR = 0.54, 95% CI: 0.32–0.91; >26 vs., What's new? Obesity can change the body's hormone balance, and encourage the onset of cancer. Here, the authors investigated the relationship between obesity, hormones, and esophageal and gastric cancers. Using data from the EPIC cohort, they obtained information about anthropometric and reproductive factors for 476,160 participants. Excess fat around the waist, they found, was associated with esophageal adenocarcinoma and gastric cardia cancer, in women and men. In women, bearing children, as well as younger age at first pregnancy, had an inverse association with certain cancers. Ovariectomy was positively associated with gastric non‐cardia cancer, suggesting involvement of hormone pathways in these malignancies.

Early‐adulthood body size is strongly inversely associated with risk of premenopausal breast cancer. It is unclear whether subsequent changes in weight affect risk. We pooled individual‐level data from 17 prospective studies to investigate the association of weight change with premenopausal breast cancer risk, considering strata of initial weight, timing of weight change, other breast cancer risk factors and breast cancer subtype. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were obtained using Cox regression. Among 628,463 women, 10,886 were diagnosed with breast cancer before menopause. Models adjusted for initial weight at ages 18–24 years and other breast cancer risk factors showed that weight gain from ages 18–24 to 35–44 or to 45–54 years was inversely associated with breast cancer overall (e.g., HR per 5 kg to ages 45–54: 0.96, 95% CI: 0.95–0.98) and with oestrogen‐receptor(ER)‐positive breast cancer (HR per 5 kg to ages 45–54: 0.96, 95% CI: 0.94–0.98). Weight gain from ages 25–34 was inversely associated with ER‐positive breast cancer only and weight gain from ages 35–44 was not associated with risk. None of these weight gains were associated with ER‐negative breast cancer. Weight loss was not consistently associated with overall or ER‐specific risk after adjusting for initial weight. Weight increase from early‐adulthood to ages 45–54 years is associated with a reduced premenopausal breast cancer risk independently of early‐adulthood weight. Biological explanations are needed to account for these two separate factors., What's new? Body weight in childhood and early adulthood plays a key role in determining premenopausal breast cancer risk but little is conclusively known about how subsequent weight changes affect this risk. Here the authors pooled results from existing studies on weight changes and breast cancer risk including more than 600,000 premenopausal women. The results show that weight gain >10–15 kg from early adulthood on lowers the risk of developing premenopausal breast cancer, providing further evidence of body weight as an important determinant of breast cancer risk.