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This paper studies the redistribution effect of personal income tax in Pakistan. We decompose the overall tax system in order to evaluate the contribution of rate, allowances, deductions, exemptions and credits. The structure given in Income Tax Ordinance, 2001, is applied to gross household incomes in 2002 (low growth year) and 2005 (high growth year). Our findings reveal that the reforms laid down in this Ordinance resulted in a greater redistribution of incomes. The redistributive effect increases as we move from 2002 to 2005 tax assessment. Deductions for salaried tax payers contribute the most towards progressivity. This is different from countries with advanced taxation systems relying mainly on allowances followed by tax rate and exemptions.

This paper studies the impact of changes in the external balance of a developing economy (Pakistan). We explain that the economic growth achieved during the past decade is highly dependent on the improvements in external balance. Between 2001 and 2007 Pakistan has benefited from, an increase in the inflow of remittances, foreign assistance from bilateral and multilateral sources, and a relatively stable exchange rate. This was also complimented by growth in the real sector. The GDP grew at an average of 6 percent from 2001 to 2007. During the same time period the investment to GDP ratio increased from 17 to 23 percent. After 2007 this performance came under pressure due to external price shocks. The increase in import price of petroleum, raw materials and other manufactured goods has the potential of reducing the growth performance, impacting the competitiveness of the economy and thereby threatening the gains achieved during the past years. We integrate a 33 sector CGE model with a detailed microsimulation model to study the effects of changes in foreign savings and import prices faced by Pakistan. A 50 percent increase in foreign savings leads to an increase in imports and a decrease in exports. Main sectors facing a decline in exports are textile, leather, cement and livestock. Changes in prices seem pro-poor as food and oil prices decline. Those factors of production that gain under this change are agricultural wage labor and non-agricultural unskilled wage labor. The later indicating a change in favor of urban poor. The increase in import prices of petroleum or industrial raw material leads to a reduction in exports. The prices impact the crop sector adversely. Return to land and profits to farm owners increase showing a change in favor of agricultural asset owners. Poverty and inequality increase. peer-reviewed

This paper studies the welfare impact of changes in the external balance of a developing economy (Pakistan). We explain that the economic growth achieved during the past decade is highly dependent on the improvements in external balance. After 2001, Pakistan has benefited from, an increase in the inflow of remittances, foreign assistance from bilateral and multilateral sources, and a relatively stable exchange rate. This was complimented by growth in the real sector. The GDP grew at an average of 7 percent from 2002 to 2007. During the same time period the growth in per-capita income was around 13 percent in dollar terms. This performance however has come under pressure due to the rising inflation, slowing down of global economy and external price shocks. The increase in import price of petroleum, raw materials and other manufactured goods has the potential of reducing the growth performance, impacting the competitiveness of the economy and thereby threatening the gains achieved during the past seven years in reducing the poverty levels. We study using a CGE-microsimulation model the effects of changes in import prices faced by Pakistan. Also provided in the simulation exercise is an analysis of increase in foreign savings that are usually prescribed for developing economies in order to augment the domestic savings and channelling investment towards developments in infrastructure and social sectors.

This paper reviews the recent work on the application of the CGE-microsimulation models. The discussion focuses on the various linking methodologies and how they can impact our results.

This paper carries out a survey of CGE and Microsimulation models used in the evaluation of issues related directly or indirectly to incomes distribution. Different model structures are discussed which have been employed for country-specific, multi-country and region-specific studies. The paper considers the relevance of a relatively recent approach in modeling_linking CGE frameworks with microsimulation models, for the incomes distribution and poverty analysis. Finally we discuss the practical application of this methodology along with a detailed picture of some active CGEmicrosimulation models. peer-reviewed