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The influenza A (IAV) RNA polymerase is an essential driver of IAV evolution. Mutations that the polymerase introduces into viral genome segments during replication are the ultimate source of genetic variation, including within the three subunits of the IAV polymerase (PB2, PB1, and PA). Evolutionary analysis of the IAV polymerase is complicated, because changes in mutation rate, replication speed, and drug resistance involve epistatic interactions among its subunits. In order to study the evolution of the human seasonal H3N2 polymerase since the 1968 pandemic, we identified pairwise evolutionary relationships among ~7000 H3N2 polymerase sequences using mutual information (MI), which measures the information gained about the identity of one residue when a second residue is known. To account for uneven sampling of viral sequences over time, we developed a weighted MI metric (wMI) and demonstrate that wMI outperforms raw MI through simulations using a well-sampled SARS-CoV-2 dataset. We then constructed wMI networks of the H3N2 polymerase to extend the inherently pairwise wMI statistic to encompass relationships among larger groups of residues. We included HA in the wMI network to distinguish between functional wMI relationships within the polymerase and those potentially due to hitchhiking on antigenic changes in HA. The wMI networks reveal coevolutionary relationships among residues with roles in replication and encapsidation. Inclusion of HA highlighted polymerase-only subgraphs containing residues with roles in the enzymatic functions of the polymerase and host adaptability. This work provides insight into the factors that drive and constrain the rapid evolution of influenza viruses.

Background:Variants of concern (VOCs) of SARS-CoV-2 have caused resurging waves of infections worldwide. In the Netherlands, the Alpha, Beta, Gamma, and Delta VOCs circulated widely between September 2020 and August 2021. We sought to elucidate how various control measures, including targeted flight restrictions, had impacted the introduction and spread of these VOCs in the Netherlands.Methods:We performed phylogenetic analyses on 39,844 SARS-CoV-2 genomes collected under the Dutch national surveillance program.Results:We found that all four VOCs were introduced before targeted flight restrictions were imposed on countries where the VOCs first emerged. Importantly, foreign introductions, predominantly from other European countries, continued during these restrictions. After their respective introductions into the Netherlands, the Alpha and Delta VOCs largely circulated within more populous regions of the country with international connections before asymmetric bidirectional transmissions occurred with the rest of the country and the VOC became the dominant circulating lineage.Conclusions:Our findings show that flight restrictions had limited effectiveness in deterring VOC introductions due to the strength of regional land travel importation risks. As countries consider scaling down SARS-CoV-2 surveillance efforts in the post-crisis phase of the pandemic, our results highlight that robust surveillance in regions of early spread is important for providing timely information for variant detection and outbreak control.Funding:None.

The human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) trimeric envelope glycoprotein (Env) is heavily glycosylated, creating a dense glycan shield that protects the underlying peptidic surface from antibody recognition. The absence of conserved glycans, due to missing potential N-linked glycosylation sites (PNGS), can result in strain-specific, autologous neutralizing antibody (NAb) responses. Here, we sought to gain a deeper understanding of the autologous neutralization by introducing holes in the otherwise dense glycan shields of the AMC011 and AMC016 SOSIP trimers. Specifically, when we knocked out the N130 and N289 glycans, which are absent from the well-characterized B41 SOSIP trimer, we observed stronger autologous NAb responses. We also analyzed the highly variable NAb responses induced in rabbits by diverse SOSIP trimers from subtypes A, B, and C. Statistical analysis, using linear regression, revealed that the cumulative area exposed on a trimer by glycan holes correlates with the magnitude of the autologous NAb response. IMPORTANCE Forty years after the first description of HIV-1, the search for a protective vaccine is still ongoing. The sole target for antibodies that can neutralize the virus are the trimeric envelope glycoproteins (Envs) located on the viral surface. The glycoprotein surface is covered with glycans that shield off the underlying protein components from recognition by the immune system. However, the Env trimers of some viral strains have holes in the glycan shield. Immunized animals developed antibodies against such glycan holes. These antibodies are generally strain specific. Here, we sought to gain a deeper understanding of what drives these specific immune responses. First, we show that strain-specific neutralizing antibody responses can be increased by creating artificial holes in the glycan shield. Second, when studying a diverse set of Env trimers with different characteristics, we found that the surface area of the glycan holes contributes prominently to the induction of strain-specific neutralizing antibodies.

Recurrent urinary tract infections (rUTIs) are extremely common, with ~ 25% of all women experiencing a recurrence within 1 year of their original infection. Escherichia coli ST131 is a globally dominant multidrug resistant clone associated with high rates of rUTI. Here, we show the dynamics of an ST131 population over a 5-year period from one elderly woman with rUTI since the 1970s. Using whole genome sequencing, we identify an indigenous clonal lineage (P1A) linked to rUTI and persistence in the fecal flora, providing compelling evidence of an intestinal reservoir of rUTI. We also show that the P1A lineage possesses substantial plasmid diversity, resulting in the coexistence of antibiotic resistant and sensitive intestinal isolates despite frequent treatment. Our longitudinal study provides a unique comprehensive genomic analysis of a clonal lineage within a single individual and suggests a population-wide resistance mechanism enabling rapid adaptation to fluctuating antibiotic exposure., Recurrent urinary tract infections occur in ~ 25% of women. Here, Beatson and colleagues use whole genome sequencing to track the dynamics of an E. coli ST131 clone in a single patient over a 5-year period. This study provides unique insights into pathogen evolution during recurrent urinary infection.

The evolution of influenza viruses is fundamentally shaped by within-host processes. However, the within-host evolutionary dynamics of influenza viruses remain incompletely understood, in part because most studies have focused on within-host virus diversity of infections in otherwise healthy adults based on single timepoint data. Here, we analysed the within-host evolution of 82 longitudinally-sampled individuals, mostly young children, infected with A/H3N2 or A/H1N1pdm09 viruses between 2007 and 2009. For A/H1N1pdm09 infections during the 2009 pandemic, nonsynonymous changes were common early in infection but decreased or remained constant throughout infection. For A/H3N2 viruses, early infection was dominated by purifying selection. However, as infections progressed, nonsynonymous variants increased in frequencies even though within-host virus titres decreased, leading to the maintenance of virus diversity via mutation-selection balance. Our findings suggest that this maintenance of genetic diversity in these children combined with their longer duration of infection may provide important opportunities for within-host virus evolution.

Seasonal influenza viruses create a persistent global disease burden by evolving to escape immunity induced by prior infections and vaccinations. New antigenic variants have a substantial selective advantage at the population level, but these variants are rarely selected within-host, even in previously immune individuals. Using a mathematical model, we show that the temporal asynchrony between within-host virus exponential growth and antibody-mediated selection could limit within-host antigenic evolution. If selection for new antigenic variants acts principally at the point of initial virus inoculation, where small virus populations encounter well-matched mucosal antibodies in previously infected individuals, there can exist protection against reinfection that does not regularly produce observable new antigenic variants within individual infected hosts. Our results provide a theoretical explanation for how virus antigenic evolution can be highly selective at the global level but nearly neutral within host. They also suggest new avenues for improving influenza control.

When analysing in vitro data, growth kinetics of influenza virus strains are often compared by computing their growth rates, which are sometimes used as proxies for fitness. However, analogous to mathematical models for epidemics, the growth rate can be defined as a function of mechanistic traits: the basic reproduction number (the average number of cells each infected cell infects) and the mean generation time (the average length of a replication cycle). Fitting a model to previously published and newly generated data from experiments in human lung cells, we compared estimates of growth rate, reproduction number and generation time for six influenza A strains. Of four strains in previously published data, A/Canada/RV733/2003 (seasonal H1N1) had the lowest basic reproduction number, followed by A/Mexico/INDRE4487/2009 (pandemic H1N1), then A/Indonesia/05/2005 (spill-over H5N1) and A/Anhui/1/2013 (spill-over H7N9). This ordering of strains was preserved for both generation time and growth rate, suggesting a positive biological correlation between these quantities which have not been previously observed. We further investigated these potential correlations using data from reassortant viruses with different internal proteins (from A/England/195/2009 (pandemic H1N1) and A/Turkey/05/2005 (H5N1)), and the same surface proteins (from A/Puerto Rico/8/34 (lab-adapted H1N1)). Similar correlations between traits were observed for these viruses, confirming our initial findings and suggesting that these patterns were related to the degree of human adaptation of internal genes. Also, the model predicted that strains with a smaller basic reproduction number, shorter generation time and slower growth rate underwent more replication cycles by the time of peak viral load, potentially accumulating mutations more quickly. These results illustrate the utility of mathematical models in inferring traits driving observed differences in in vitro growth of influenza strains.

Highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N8) viruses first emerged in China in 2010 and in 2014 spread throughout Asia and to Europe and the United States via migrating birds. Influenza A(H5N8) viruses were first detected in the Netherlands in 2014 and caused five outbreaks in poultry farms but were infrequently detected in wild birds. In 2016, influenza A(H5N8) viruses were reintroduced into the Netherlands, resulting in eight poultry farm outbreaks. This outbreak resulted in numerous dead wild birds with severe pathology. Phylogenetic analysis showed that the polymerase genes of these viruses had undergone extensive reassortment between outbreaks. Here, we investigated the differences in virulence between the 2014-15 and the 2016-17 outbreaks by characterizing the polymerase complex of influenza A(H5N8) viruses from both outbreaks. We found that viruses from the 2014-15 outbreak had significantly higher polymerase complex activity in both human and avian cell lines than did those from the 2016-17 outbreak. No apparent differences in the balance between transcription and replication of the viral genome were observed. Interestingly, the 2014-15 polymerase complexes induced significantly higher levels of interferon beta (IFN-β) than the polymerase complexes of the 2016-17 outbreak viruses, mediated via retinoic acid-inducible gene I (RIG-I). Inoculation of primary duck cells with recombinant influenza A(H5N8) viruses, including viruses with reassorted polymerase complexes, showed that the polymerase complexes from the 2014-15 outbreak induced higher levels of IFN-β despite relatively minor differences in replication capacity. Together, these data suggest that despite the lower levels of polymerase activity, the higher 2016-17 influenza A(H5N8) virus virulence may be attributed to the lower level of activation of the innate immune system. IMPORTANCE Compared to the 2014-15 outbreak, the 2016-17 outbreak of influenza A(H5N8) viruses in the Netherlands and Europe was more virulent; the number of dead or diseased wild birds found and the severity of pathological changes were higher during the 2016-17 outbreak. The polymerase complex plays an important role in influenza virus virulence, and the gene segments of influenza A(H5N8) viruses reassorted extensively between the outbreaks. In this study, the 2014-15 polymerase complexes were found to be more active, which is counterintuitive with the observed higher virulence of the 2016-17 outbreak viruses. Interestingly, the 2014-15 polymerase complexes also induced higher levels of IFN-β. These findings suggest that the higher virulence of influenza A(H5N8) viruses from the 2016-17 outbreak may be related to the lower induction of IFN-β. An attenuated interferon response could lead to increased dissemination, pathology, and mortality, as observed in (wild) birds infected during the 2016-2017 outbreak.

Despite impressive uptake of direct acting antivirals for hepatitis C virus (HCV) in the Netherlands among HIV/HCV co-infected men who have sex with men (MSM), HCV transmission continues, especially among patients previously successfully treated for HCV. The incidence of reinfection occurs at the extremely high rate of 15 per 100 person-years. Clearly, more sophisticated methods are necessary to identify the sources and timing of new HCV infections among MSM. The aim of this research is to phylogenetically characterize HCV transmission dynamics within MSM-specific networks in order to provide a solid base for targeted interventions to monitor, control, and eventually stop the ongoing transmission of HCV among HIV-infected MSM and to prevent further spread of HCV to the community at large. The methodology that will be used is two-fold. Firstly, it concerns setting up a real-time monitoring system to track the HCV epidemic using phylogenetic tools and open-source software from http://nextstrain.org. Secondly, several phylogenetic methods will be used to retrospectively identify transmission clusters in Amsterdam and define epidemiological characteristics, including the directionality of transmission and the size and introduction dates of the clusters. This means that cluster cut-off points will have to be calculated. This research will result in a web-based molecular surveillance tool to monitor the persistence of endemic clades, emergence of new clades, and transmission clusters in ‘real time’, which, combined with clinical and epidemiological data, will be used for targeted interventions. The surveillance tool will be based on the open-source software from nextstrain.org. Secondly, by retrospectively describing the HCV transmission clusters in terms of introduction dates and subsequent dynamics, we may be able to better predict the future dynamics of the different clusters. High-resolution viral sequencing will allow us to identify the source and timing of (new) HCV infections and follow the trajectory of these MSM-specific lineages through the MSM population. Real-time insight in transmission networks using a web-based molecular surveillance tool will identify key targets for rapid interventions, awareness campaigns, and testing strategies. This can be used to prevent further spread to HIV-negative MSM and to control and eventually eliminate HCV from the MSM population.

UTI is a common ailment that affects more than half of all women during their lifetime. The leading cause of UTIs is UPEC, which relies on type 1 pili to colonize and persist within the bladder during infection. The regulation of type 1 pili is remarkable for an epigenetic mechanism in which a section of DNA containing a promoter is inverted. The inversion mechanism relies on what are thought to be dedicated recombinase genes; however, the full repertoire for these recombinases is not known. We show here that there are no additional targets beyond those already identified for the recombinases in the entire genome of two UPEC strains, arguing that type 1 pilus expression itself is the driving evolutionary force for the presence of these recombinase genes. This further suggests that targeting the type 1 pilus is a rational alternative nonantibiotic strategy for the treatment of UTI., Most urinary tract infections (UTIs) are caused by uropathogenic Escherichia coli (UPEC), which depends on an extracellular organelle (type 1 pili) for adherence to bladder cells during infection. Type 1 pilus expression is partially regulated by inversion of a piece of DNA referred to as fimS, which contains the promoter for the fim operon encoding type 1 pili. fimS inversion is regulated by up to five recombinases collectively known as Fim recombinases. These Fim recombinases are currently known to regulate two other switches: the ipuS and hyxS switches. A long-standing question has been whether the Fim recombinases regulate the inversion of other switches, perhaps to coordinate expression for adhesion or virulence. We answered this question using whole-genome sequencing with a newly developed algorithm (structural variation detection using relative entropy [SVRE]) for calling structural variations using paired-end short-read sequencing. SVRE identified all of the previously known switches, refining the specificity of which recombinases act at which switches. Strikingly, we found no new inversions that were mediated by the Fim recombinases. We conclude that the Fim recombinases are each highly specific for a small number of switches. We hypothesize that the unlinked Fim recombinases have been recruited to regulate fimS, and fimS only, as a secondary locus; this further implies that regulation of type 1 pilus expression (and its role in gastrointestinal and/or genitourinary colonization) is important enough, on its own, to influence the evolution and maintenance of multiple additional genes within the accessory genome of E. coli. IMPORTANCE UTI is a common ailment that affects more than half of all women during their lifetime. The leading cause of UTIs is UPEC, which relies on type 1 pili to colonize and persist within the bladder during infection. The regulation of type 1 pili is remarkable for an epigenetic mechanism in which a section of DNA containing a promoter is inverted. The inversion mechanism relies on what are thought to be dedicated recombinase genes; however, the full repertoire for these recombinases is not known. We show here that there are no additional targets beyond those already identified for the recombinases in the entire genome of two UPEC strains, arguing that type 1 pilus expression itself is the driving evolutionary force for the presence of these recombinase genes. This further suggests that targeting the type 1 pilus is a rational alternative nonantibiotic strategy for the treatment of UTI.

Current phylogenetic clustering approaches for identifying pathogen transmission clusters are limited by their dependency on arbitrarily-defined genetic distance thresholds for within-cluster divergence. Incomplete knowledge of a pathogen’s underlying dynamics often reduces the choice of distance threshold to an exploratory, ad-hoc exercise that is difficult to standardise across studies. Phydelity is a new tool for the identification of transmission clusters in pathogen phylogenies. It identifies groups of sequences that are more closely-related than the ensemble distribution of the phylogeny under a statistically-principled and phylogeny-informed framework, without the introduction of arbitrary distance thresholds. Relative to other distance threshold-based and model-based methods, Phydelity outputs clusters with higher purity and lower probability of misclassification in simulated phylogenies. Applying Phydelity to empirical datasets of hepatitis B and C virus infections showed that Phydelity identified clusters with better correspondence to individuals that are more likely to be linked by transmission events relative to other widely-used non-parametric phylogenetic clustering methods without the need for parameter calibration. Phydelity is generalisable to any pathogen and can be used to identify putative direct transmission events. Phydelity is freely available at https://github.com/alvinxhan/Phydelity.

Despite decades of surveillance and pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions, seasonal influenza viruses continue to cause epidemics around the world each year. The key process underlying these recurrent epidemics is the evolution of the viruses to escape the immunity that is induced by prior infection or vaccination. Although we are beginning to understand the processes that underlie the evolutionary dynamics of seasonal influenza viruses, the timing and nature of emergence of new virus strains remain mostly unpredictable. In this Review, we discuss recent advances in understanding the molecular determinants of influenza virus immune escape, sources of evolutionary selection pressure, population dynamics of influenza viruses and prospects for better influenza virus control.

Extraintestinal pathogenic Escherichia coli (ExPEC) acts as a commensal within the mammalian gut but can induce pathology upon dissemination to other host environments such as the urinary tract and bloodstream. ExPEC genomes are likely shaped by evolutionary forces encountered within the gut, where the bacteria spend much of their time, provoking the question of how their extraintestinal virulence traits arose. The principle of coincidental evolution, in which a gene that evolved in one niche happens to be advantageous in another, has been used to argue that ExPEC virulence factors originated in response to selective pressures within the gut ecosystem. As a test of this hypothesis, the fitness of ExPEC mutants lacking canonical virulence factors was assessed within the intact murine gut in the absence of antibiotic treatment. We found that most of the tested factors, including cytotoxic necrotizing factor type 1 (CNF1), Usp, colibactin, flagella, and plasmid pUTI89, were dispensable for gut colonization. The deletion of genes encoding the adhesin PapG or the toxin HlyA had transient effects but did not interfere with longer-term persistence. In contrast, a mutant missing the type 1 pilus-associated adhesin FimH displayed somewhat reduced persistence within the gut. However, this phenotype varied dependent on the presence of specific competing strains and was partially attributable to aberrant flagellin expression in the absence of fimH . These data indicate that FimH and other key ExPEC-associated factors are not strictly required for gut colonization, suggesting that the development of extraintestinal virulence traits is not driven solely by selective pressures within the gut.

The global-scale epidemiology and genome-wide evolutionary dynamics of influenza B remain poorly understood compared with influenza A viruses. We compiled a spatio-temporally comprehensive dataset of influenza B viruses, comprising over 2,500 genomes sampled worldwide between 1987 and 2015, including 382 newly-sequenced genomes that fill substantial gaps in previous molecular surveillance studies. Our contributed data increase the number of available influenza B virus genomes in Europe, Africa and Central Asia, improving the global context to study influenza B viruses. We reveal Yamagata-lineage diversity results from co-circulation of two antigenically-distinct groups that also segregate genetically across the entire genome, without evidence of intra-lineage reassortment. In contrast, Victoria-lineage diversity stems from geographic segregation of different genetic clades, with variability in the degree of geographic spread among clades. Differences between the lineages are reflected in their antigenic dynamics, as Yamagata-lineage viruses show alternating dominance between antigenic groups, while Victoria-lineage viruses show antigenic drift of a single lineage. Structural mapping of amino acid substitutions on trunk branches of influenza B gene phylogenies further supports these antigenic differences and highlights two potential mechanisms of adaptation for polymerase activity. Our study provides new insights into the epidemiological and molecular processes shaping influenza B virus evolution globally., Author summary Influenza B viruses cause roughly one third of the global influenza disease burden. However, many important questions regarding the global-scale molecular epidemiology and evolutionary dynamics of influenza B virus have yet to be comprehensively addressed compared to influenza A virus. This is in part due to limited globally-sampled genomic data. We improved the availability of influenza B virus data by sequencing over 350 full genomes, fillings gaps from under-sampled regions by as much as 12-fold. Using a dataset of over 2,500 influenza B virus genomes, we show major differences in the genome-wide evolution, molecular adaptation, and geographic spread between the two major influenza B lineages. These findings have implications for vaccine design and improve our understanding of influenza virus evolution.

The threat of an influenza A virus pandemic stems from continual virus spillovers from reservoir species, a tiny fraction of which spark sustained transmission in humans. To date, no pandemic emergence of a new influenza strain has been preceded by detection of a closely related precursor in an animal or human. Nonetheless, influenza surveillance efforts are expanding, prompting a need for tools to assess the pandemic risk posed by a detected virus. The goal would be to use genetic sequence and/or biological assays of viral traits to identify those non-human influenza viruses with the greatest risk of evolving into pandemic threats, and/or to understand drivers of such evolution, to prioritize pandemic prevention or response measures. We describe such efforts, identify progress and ongoing challenges, and discuss three specific traits of influenza viruses (hemagglutinin receptor binding specificity, hemagglutinin pH of activation, and polymerase complex efficiency) that contribute to pandemic risk. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.18491.001

Extraintestinal pathogenic Escherichia coli (ExPEC) strains are typically benign within the mammalian gut but can disperse to extraintestinal sites to cause diseases like urinary tract infections and sepsis. As occupation of the intestinal tract is often a prerequisite for ExPEC-mediated pathogenesis, we set out to understand how ExPEC colonizes this niche. A screen using transposon sequencing (Tn-seq) was performed to search for genes within ExPEC isolate F11 that are important for growth in intestinal mucus, which is thought to be a major source of nutrients for E. coli in the gut. Multiple genes that contribute to ExPEC fitness in mucus broth were identified, with genes that are directly or indirectly associated with fatty acid beta-oxidation pathways being especially important. One of the identified mucus-specific fitness genes encodes the rhomboid protease GlpG. In vitro , we found that the disruption of glpG had polar effects on the downstream gene glpR , which encodes a transcriptional repressor of factors that catalyze glycerol degradation. Mutation of either glpG or glpR impaired ExPEC growth in mucus and on plates containing the long-chain fatty acid oleate as the sole carbon source. In contrast, in a mouse gut colonization model in which the natural microbiota is unperturbed, the disruption of glpG but not glpR significantly reduced ExPEC survival. This work reveals a novel biological role for a rhomboid protease and highlights new avenues for defining mechanisms by which ExPEC strains colonize the mammalian gastrointestinal tract.

Swine influenza presents a substantial disease burden for pig populations worldwide and poses a potential pandemic threat to humans. There is considerable diversity in both H1 and H3 influenza viruses circulating in swine due to the frequent introductions of viruses from humans and birds coupled with geographic segregation of global swine populations. Much of this diversity is characterized genetically but the antigenic diversity of these viruses is poorly understood. Critically, the antigenic diversity shapes the risk profile of swine influenza viruses in terms of their epizootic and pandemic potential. Here, using the most comprehensive set of swine influenza virus antigenic data compiled to date, we quantify the antigenic diversity of swine influenza viruses on a multi-continental scale. The substantial antigenic diversity of recently circulating viruses in different parts of the world adds complexity to the risk profiles for the movement of swine and the potential for swine-derived infections in humans. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.12217.001, eLife digest Influenza viruses, commonly called flu, infect millions of people and animals every year and occasionally causes pandemics in humans. The immune system can neutralise flu viruses by recognising the proteins on the virus surface, generically referred to as antigens. These antigens change as flu viruses evolve to escape detection by the immune system. These changes tend to be relatively small such that exposure to one flu virus generates immunity that is still effective against other related flu viruses. However, over time, the accumulation of these small changes can result in larger differences such that prior infections no longer provide protection against the new virus. Influenza A viruses infect a wide variety of birds and mammals. Viruses can also transmit from one species to another, which may result in the introduction of viruses with antigens that are new to the recipient species and which have the potential to cause substantial outbreaks. Pig flu viruses have long been considered to be a potential risk for human pandemic viruses and were the source of the 2009 pandemic H1N1 virus. Importantly, humans often transmit flu viruses to pigs. Understanding the dynamics and consequences of this two-way transmission is important for designing effective strategies to detect and respond to new strains of flu. Influenza A viruses of the H1 and H3 subtypes circulate widely in pigs. However, it was poorly understood how closely related swine and human viruses circulating in different regions were to one another and how much the antigens varied between the different viruses. Lewis, Russell et al. have now analysed the antigenic variation of hundreds of H1 and H3 viruses from pigs on multiple continents. The antigenic diversity of recent swine flu viruses resembles the diversity of H1 and H3 viruses observed in humans over the last 40 years. A key factor driving the diversity of the H1 and H3 viruses in pigs is the frequent introduction of human viruses to pigs. In contrast, only one flu virus from a bird had contributed to the observed antigenic diversity in pigs in a substantial way. Once in pigs, human-derived flu viruses continue to evolve their antigens. This results in a tremendous diversity of flu viruses that can be transmitted to other pigs and also to humans. These flu viruses could pose a serious risk to public health because they are no longer similar to the current human flu strains. These findings have important implications not only for developing flu vaccines for pigs but also for informing the development of more-effective surveillance and disease-control strategies to prevent the spread of new flu variants. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.12217.002

Equine influenza virus is a major respiratory pathogen in horses, and outbreaks of disease often lead to substantial disruption to and economic losses for equestrian industries. The hemagglutinin (HA) protein is of key importance in the control of equine influenza because HA is the primary target of the protective immune response and the main component of currently licensed influenza vaccines. However, the influenza virus HA protein changes over time, a process called antigenic drift, and vaccine strains must be updated to remain effective. Antigenic drift is assessed primarily by the hemagglutination inhibition (HI) assay. We have generated HI assay data for equine influenza A (H3N8) viruses isolated between 1968 and 2007 and have used antigenic cartography to quantify antigenic differences among the isolates. The antigenic evolution of equine influenza viruses during this period was clustered: from 1968 to 1988, all isolates formed a single antigenic cluster, which then split into two cocirculating clusters in 1989, and then a third cocirculating cluster appeared in 2003. Viruses from all three clusters were isolated in 2007. In one of the three clusters, we show evidence of antigenic drift away from the vaccine strain over time. We determined that a single amino acid substitution was likely responsible for the antigenic differences among clusters.

The clinical impact of the 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1) virus (pdmH1N1) has been relatively low. However, amino acid substitution D222G in the hemagglutinin of pdmH1N1 has been associated with cases of severe disease and fatalities. D222G was introduced in a prototype pdmH1N1 by reverse genetics, and the effect on virus receptor binding, replication, antigenic properties, and pathogenesis and transmission in animal models was investigated. pdmH1N1 with D222G caused ocular disease in mice without further indications of enhanced virulence in mice and ferrets. pdmH1N1 with D222G retained transmissibility via aerosols or respiratory droplets in ferrets and guinea pigs. The virus displayed changes in attachment to human respiratory tissues in vitro , in particular increased binding to macrophages and type II pneumocytes in the alveoli and to tracheal and bronchial submucosal glands. Virus attachment studies further indicated that pdmH1N1 with D222G acquired dual receptor specificity for complex α2,3- and α2,6-linked sialic acids. Molecular dynamics modeling of the hemagglutinin structure provided an explanation for the retention of α2,6 binding. Altered receptor specificity of the virus with D222G thus affected interaction with cells of the human lower respiratory tract, possibly explaining the observed association with enhanced disease in humans.

Equine influenza virus (EIV) surveillance is important in the management of equine influenza. It provides data on circulating and newly emerging strains for vaccine strain selection. To this end, antigenic characterisation by haemaggluttination inhibition (HI) assay and phylogenetic analysis was carried out on 28 EIV strains isolated in North America and Europe during 2006 and 2007. In the UK, 20 viruses were isolated from 28 nasopharyngeal swabs that tested positive by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. All except two of the UK viruses were characterised as members of the Florida sublineage with similarity to A/eq/Newmarket/5/03 (clade 2). One isolate, A/eq/Cheshire/1/06, was characterised as an American lineage strain similar to viruses isolated up to 10 years earlier. A second isolate, A/eq/Lincolnshire/1/07 was characterised as a member of the Florida sublineage (clade 1) with similarity to A/eq/Wisconsin/03. Furthermore, A/eq/Lincolnshire/1/06 was a member of the Florida sublineage (clade 2) by haemagglutinin (HA) gene sequence, but appeared to be a member of the Eurasian lineage by the non-structural gene (NS) sequence suggesting that reassortment had occurred. A/eq/Switzerland/P112/07 was characterised as a member of the Eurasian lineage, the first time since 2005 that isolation of a virus from this lineage has been reported. Seven viruses from North America were classified as members of the Florida sublineage (clade 1), similar to A/eq/Wisconsin/03. In conclusion, a variety of antigenically distinct EIVs continue to circulate worldwide. Florida sublineage clade 1 viruses appear to predominate in North America, clade 2 viruses in Europe.

Extraintestinal pathogenic Escherichia coli colonize the human gut and can spread to other body sites to induce diseases such as urinary tract infections, sepsis, and meningitis. A complete understanding of the infection process is hindered by both the inherent genetic diversity of E. coli and the large number of unstudied genes. Here, we focus on the uncharacterized gene rqlI, which our lab recently uncovered in a Tn-seq screen for bacterial genes required within a zebrafish model of infection. We demonstrate that the ΔrqlI mutant experiences a growth defect and increased DNA stress in low oxygen conditions. In a genetic screen for suppressor mutations in the Δrql strain, we found that the shortcomings of the Δrql mutant are attributable to the activity of RqlH, which is known in other bacteria to be a helicase of the RecQ family that contains a phosphoribosyltransferase (PRTase) domain. Disruption of rqlH rescues the ΔrqlI strain in both in vivo and in vitro assays, while the expression of RqlH alone activates the SOS response coincident with bacterial filamentation, heightened sensitivity to DNA damage, and an increased mutation rate. The analysis of truncation mutants indicates that, in the absence of RqlI, RqlH toxicity is due to its PRTase domain. Complementary studies demonstrate that the toxicity of RqlH is modulated in a context-dependent fashion by overlapping domains within RqlI. This regulation is seemingly direct, given that the two proteins physically interact and form an operon. Interestingly, RqlH and RqlI orthologs are encoded by a diverse group of bacteria, but in many of these microbes, and especially in Gram-positive organisms, rqlH is found in the absence of rqlI. In total, this work shows that RqlH and RqlI can act in a strain-specific fashion akin to a toxin-antitoxin system in which toxicity is mediated by an atypical helicase-associated PRTase domain., Author Summary Extraintestinal pathogenic Escherichia coli (ExPEC) cause the majority of urinary tract infections, and are also able to infect the bloodstream, meninges, and various other sites within the human host. These infections are becoming increasingly difficult to treat as ExPEC strains gain resistance to many of the antibiotics that are commonly used in the clinic. The development of improved treatment strategies requires a deeper understanding of the factors that promote ExPEC fitness and virulence within the host. In genetic screens, we identified a functionally uncharacterized protein, RqlI, which promotes ExPEC survival within diverse host environments. We find that RqlI binds to and works in tandem with RqlH, a protein that has been shown in other bacteria to unwind DNA. In the absence of RqlI, we found that RqlH can become toxic to ExPEC, causing DNA damage and slower growth. A specific part of RqlH that is predicted to manipulate the nucleotides that make up DNA is responsible for this toxicity. The ability of RqlH to inhibit bacterial growth when not held in check by RqlI suggests that the specific inactivation of RqlI could have therapeutic value in combating ExPEC and other pathogens that express these proteins.

The devil in the dengue details Along with their mosquito vectors, dengue viruses are spreading worldwide to infect millions of people. For a few, subsequent infection results in lethal hemorrhagic disease. Katzelnick et al. used antibody-binding data to map structural divergence and antigenic variation among dengue viruses. Comparing results in monkeys and humans, the viruses approximately clustered into the four known groups. However, the four virus groups showed as much antigenic distance within a group as between groups. This finding helps explain why immune responses to dengue are highly variable, and it has complex implications for epidemiology, disease, and vaccine deployment. Science , this issue p. 1338

Nature Reviews Microbiology http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nrmicro.2017.118 (2017) In Figure 4 of the original online version of the article, the influenza virus epidemic activity by month was incorrectly labelled. This has now been corrected in the online and print versions. We apologize to the authors and to readers for any confusion caused.

Emerging viral diseases are often the product of a host shift, where a pathogen jumps from its original host into a novel species. Phylogenetic studies show that host shifts are a frequent event in the evolution of most pathogens, but why pathogens successfully jump between some host species but not others is only just becoming clear. The susceptibility of potential new hosts can vary enormously, with close relatives of the natural host typically being the most susceptible. Often, pathogens must adapt to successfully infect a novel host, for example by evolving to use different cell surface receptors, to escape the immune response, or to ensure they are transmitted by the new host. In viruses there are often limited molecular solutions to achieve this, and the same sequence changes are often seen each time a virus infects a particular host. These changes may come at a cost to other aspects of the pathogen's fitness, and this may sometimes prevent host shifts from occurring. Here we examine how these evolutionary factors affect patterns of host shifts and disease emergence.

Assessing the pandemic risk posed by specific non-human influenza A viruses is an important goal in public health research. As influenza virus genome sequencing becomes cheaper, faster, and more readily available, the ability to predict pandemic potential from sequence data could transform pandemic influenza risk assessment capabilities. However, the complexities of the relationships between virus genotype and phenotype make such predictions extremely difficult. The integration of experimental work, computational tool development, and analysis of evolutionary pathways, together with refinements to influenza surveillance, has the potential to transform our ability to assess the risks posed to humans by non-human influenza viruses and lead to improved pandemic preparedness and response. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.03883.001

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses of the H5N1 subtype are genetically highly variable and have diversified into multiple phylogenetic clades over the past decade. Antigenic drift is a well-studied phenomenon for seasonal human influenza viruses, but much less is known about the antigenic evolution of HPAI H5N1 viruses that circulate in poultry. In this study, we focused on HPAI H5N1 viruses that are enzootic to Indonesia. We selected representative viruses from genetically distinct lineages that are currently circulating and determined their antigenic properties by hemagglutination inhibition assays. At least six antigenic variants have circulated between 2003, when H5N1 clade 2.1 viruses were first detected in Indonesia, and 2011. During this period, multiple antigenic variants cocirculated in the same geographic regions. Mutant viruses were constructed by site-directed mutagenesis to represent each of the circulating antigenic variants, revealing that antigenic differences between clade 2.1 viruses were due to only one or very few amino acid substitutions immediately adjacent to the receptor binding site. Antigenic variants of H5N1 virus evaded recognition by both ferret and chicken antibodies. The molecular basis for antigenic change in clade 2.1 viruses closely resembled that of seasonal human influenza viruses, indicating that the hemagglutinin of influenza viruses from different hosts and subtypes may be similarly restricted to evade antibody recognition., IMPORTANCE Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 viruses are responsible for severe outbreaks in both commercial and backyard poultry, causing considerable economic losses and regular zoonotic transmissions to humans. Vaccination is used increasingly to reduce the burden of HPAI H5N1 virus in poultry. Influenza viruses can escape from recognition by antibodies induced upon vaccination or infection through genetic changes in the hemagglutinin protein. The evolutionary patterns and molecular basis of antigenic change in HPAI H5N1 viruses are poorly understood, hampering formulation of optimal vaccination strategies. We have shown here that HPAI H5N1 viruses in Indonesia diversified into multiple antigenic variants, that antigenic differences were due to one or a very few substitutions near the receptor binding site, and that the molecular basis for antigenic change was remarkably similar to that for seasonal human influenza viruses. These findings have consequences for future vaccination and surveillance considerations and contribute to the understanding of the antigenic evolution of influenza viruses.

Influenza A(H3N2) viruses became widespread in humans during the 1968 H3N2 virus pandemic and have been a major cause of influenza epidemics ever since. These viruses evolve continuously by reassortment and genomic evolution. Antigenic drift is the cause for the need to update influenza vaccines frequently. Using two data sets that span the entire period of circulation of human influenza A(H3N2) viruses, it was shown that influenza A(H3N2) virus evolution can be mapped to 13 antigenic clusters. Here we analyzed the full genomes of 286 influenza A(H3N2) viruses from these two data sets to investigate the genomic evolution and reassortment patterns. Numerous reassortment events were found, scattered over the entire period of virus circulation, but most prominently in viruses circulating between 1991 and 1998. Some of these reassortment events persisted over time, and one of these coincided with an antigenic cluster transition. Furthermore, selection pressures and nucleotide and amino acid substitution rates of all proteins were studied, including those of the recently discovered PB1-N40, PA-X, PA-N155, and PA-N182 proteins. Rates of nucleotide and amino acid substitutions were most pronounced for the hemagglutinin, neuraminidase, and PB1-F2 proteins. Selection pressures were highest in hemagglutinin, neuraminidase, matrix 1, and nonstructural protein 1. This study of genotype in relation to antigenic phenotype throughout the period of circulation of human influenza A(H3N2) viruses leads to a better understanding of the evolution of these viruses. IMPORTANCE Each winter, influenza virus infects approximately 5 to 15% of the world's population, resulting in significant morbidity and mortality. Influenza A(H3N2) viruses evolve continuously by reassortment and genomic evolution. This leads to changes in antigenic recognition (antigenic drift) which make it necessary to update vaccines against influenza A(H3N2) viruses frequently. In this study, the relationship of genetic evolution to antigenic change spanning the entire period of A(H3N2) virus circulation was studied for the first time. The results presented in this study contribute to a better understanding of genetic evolution in correlation with antigenic evolution of influenza A(H3N2) viruses.

In uropathogenic Escherichia coli (UPEC), type 1 pili (T1P) and P pili enable the bacterium to bind to host epithelial cells within the urinary tract, which can lead to a urinary tract infection. This chapter reviews the genetics, structure and functions of UPEC T1P and P pili. It also describes the mechanisms by which T1P and P pili contribute to UPEC pathogenesis and host immune response.

Information on global human movement patterns is central to spatial epidemiological models used to predict the behavior of influenza and other infectious diseases. Yet it remains difficult to test which modes of dispersal drive pathogen spread at various geographic scales using standard epidemiological data alone. Evolutionary analyses of pathogen genome sequences increasingly provide insights into the spatial dynamics of influenza viruses, but to date they have largely neglected the wealth of information on human mobility, mainly because no statistical framework exists within which viral gene sequences and empirical data on host movement can be combined. Here, we address this problem by applying a phylogeographic approach to elucidate the global spread of human influenza subtype H3N2 and assess its ability to predict the spatial spread of human influenza A viruses worldwide. Using a framework that estimates the migration history of human influenza while simultaneously testing and quantifying a range of potential predictive variables of spatial spread, we show that the global dynamics of influenza H3N2 are driven by air passenger flows, whereas at more local scales spread is also determined by processes that correlate with geographic distance. Our analyses further confirm a central role for mainland China and Southeast Asia in maintaining a source population for global influenza diversity. By comparing model output with the known pandemic expansion of H1N1 during 2009, we demonstrate that predictions of influenza spatial spread are most accurate when data on human mobility and viral evolution are integrated. In conclusion, the global dynamics of influenza viruses are best explained by combining human mobility data with the spatial information inherent in sampled viral genomes. The integrated approach introduced here offers great potential for epidemiological surveillance through phylogeographic reconstructions and for improving predictive models of disease control., Author Summary What explains the geographic dispersal of emerging pathogens? Reconstructions of evolutionary history from pathogen gene sequences offer qualitative descriptions of spatial spread, but current approaches are poorly equipped to formally test and quantify the contribution of different potential explanatory factors, such as human mobility and demography. Here, we use a novel phylogeographic method to evaluate multiple potential predictors of viral spread in human influenza dynamics. We identify air travel as the predominant driver of global influenza migration, whilst also revealing the contribution of other mobility processes at more local scales. We demonstrate the power of our inter-disciplinary approach by using it to predict the global pandemic expansion of H1N1 influenza in 2009. Our study highlights the importance of integrating evolutionary and ecological information when studying the dynamics of infectious disease.

Strains of Extraintestinal Pathogenic Escherichia c oli (ExPEC) exhibit an array of virulence strategies and are a major cause of urinary tract infections, sepsis and meningitis. Efforts to understand ExPEC pathogenesis are challenged by the high degree of genetic and phenotypic variation that exists among isolates. Determining which virulence traits are widespread and which are strain-specific will greatly benefit the design of more effective therapies. Towards this goal, we utilized a quantitative genetic footprinting technique known as transposon insertion sequencing (Tn-seq) in conjunction with comparative pathogenomics to functionally dissect the genetic repertoire of a reference ExPEC isolate. Using Tn-seq and high-throughput zebrafish infection models, we tracked changes in the abundance of ExPEC variants within saturated transposon mutant libraries following selection within distinct host niches. Nine hundred and seventy bacterial genes (18% of the genome) were found to promote pathogen fitness in either a niche-dependent or independent manner. To identify genes with the highest therapeutic and diagnostic potential, a novel Trait Enrichment Analysis (TEA) algorithm was developed to ascertain the phylogenetic distribution of candidate genes. TEA revealed that a significant portion of the 970 genes identified by Tn-seq have homologues more often contained within the genomes of ExPEC and other known pathogens, which, as suggested by the first axiom of molecular Koch's postulates, is considered to be a key feature of true virulence determinants. Three of these Tn-seq-derived pathogen-associated genes—a transcriptional repressor, a putative metalloendopeptidase toxin and a hypothetical DNA binding protein—were deleted and shown to independently affect ExPEC fitness in zebrafish and mouse models of infection. Together, the approaches and observations reported herein provide a resource for future pathogenomics-based research and highlight the diversity of factors required by a single ExPEC isolate to survive within varying host environments., Author Summary Antibiotic resistance is an increasingly serious problem, especially among pathogenic strains of Escherichia coli that cause urinary tract infections, sepsis and meningitis. It is important to obtain a more comprehensive genome-wide understanding of bacterial virulence because it has the potential to uncover novel and alternative therapeutic targets. Therefore, we probed the genome of a pathogenic E. coli isolate using transposon mutagenesis, deep sequencing and comparative pathogenomics in an effort to define its virulence gene repertoire. Using this multilayered approach in combination with high-throughput zebrafish infection models, we identified hundreds of genes that affect pathogen fitness during localized and/or blood-borne infections. We also developed a bioinformatics-based method to systematically sift through our datasets for genes that are broadly conserved among an assortment of pathogenic species. Follow-up analysis of several pathogen-associated candidate genes using zebrafish and mouse infection models highlighted the capacity of our approach to identify novel fitness determinants. The results from this study are available via an interactive online data viewer (http://pathogenomics.path.utah.edu/F11_TnSeq/) so that investigators can more effectively search and utilize these findings.

Fleas are vectors for a number of pathogens including Yersinia pestis, yet factors that govern interactions between fleas and Y. pestis are not well understood. Examining gene expression changes in infected fleas could reveal pathways that affect Y. pestis survival in fleas and subsequent transmission. We used suppression subtractive hybridization to identify genes that are induced in Xenopsylla cheopis (Rothschild) (Siphonaptera: Pulicidae) in response to oral or hemocoel infection with Y. pestis. Overall, the transcriptional changes we detected were very limited. We identified several genes that are likely involved in the production or removal of reactive oxygen species (ROS). Midgut ROS levels were higher in infected fleas and antioxidant treatment before infection reduced ROS levels and resulted in higher bacterial loads. An ROS-sensitive mutant strain of Y. pestis lacking the OxyR transcriptional regulator showed reduced growth early after infection. Our results indicate that ROS may limit Y. pestis early colonization of fleas and that bacterial strategies to overcome ROS may enhance transmission.

The virulence of Yersinia pestis KIM6+ was compared with multiple isolates of Yersinia pseudotuberculosis and Yersinia enterocolitica toward larvae of the greater wax moth Galleria mellonella. Although Y. pestis and Y. pseudotuberculosis were able to cause lethal infection in G. mellonella, these species appeared less virulent than the majority of Y. enterocolitica strains tested. Y. pestis survived primarily within hemocytes of G. mellonella, and induced a strong antibacterial peptide response that lasted for at least 3 days in surviving larvae. Immunization with dead bacteria to induce an antibacterial response led to increased survival of the larvae following infection. Mutant strains lacking the either phoP or oxyR, which were less resistant to antibacterial peptides and hydrogen peroxide respectively, were attenuated and restoration of the wild-type genes on plasmids restored virulence. Our results indicate that the Y. pseudotuberculosis-Y. pestis lineage is not as virulent toward G. mellonella as are the majority of Y. enterocolitica isolates. Further, we have shown that G. mellonella is a useful infection model for analyzing Y. pestis host-pathogen interactions, and antibacterial peptide resistance mediated by phoP and reactive oxygen defense mediated by oxyR are important for Y. pestis infection of this insect.

Seasonal epidemics caused by influenza virus are driven by antigenic changes (drift) in viral surface glycoproteins that allow evasion from preexisting humoral immunity. Antigenic drift is a feature of not only the hemagglutinin (HA), but also of neuraminidase (NA). We have evaluated the antigenic evolution of each protein in H1N1 and H3N2 viruses used in vaccine formulations during the last 15 y by analysis of HA and NA inhibition titers and antigenic cartography. As previously shown for HA, genetic changes in NA did not always lead to an antigenic change. The noncontinuous pattern of NA drift did not correspond closely with HA drift in either subtype. Although NA drift was demonstrated using ferret sera, we show that these changes also impact recognition by NA-inhibiting antibodies in human sera. Remarkably, a single point mutation in the NA of A/Brisbane/59/2007 was primarily responsible for the lack of inhibition by polyclonal antibodies specific for earlier strains. These data underscore the importance of NA inhibition testing to define antigenic drift when there are sequence changes in NA.

All lyssaviruses cause fatal encephalitis in mammals. There is sufficient antigenic variation within the genus to cause variable vaccine efficacy, but this variation is difficult to characterize quantitatively: sequence analysis cannot yet provide detailed antigenic information, and antigenic neutralization data have been refractory to high-resolution robust interpretation. Here, we address these issues by using state-of-the-art antigenic analyses to generate a high-resolution antigenic map of a global panel of 25 lyssaviruses. We compared the calculated antigenic distances with viral glycoprotein ectodomain sequence data. Although 67% of antigenic variation was predictable from the glycoprotein amino acid sequence, there are in some cases substantial differences between genetic and antigenic distances, thus highlighting the risk of inferring antigenic relationships solely from sequence data at this time. These differences included epidemiologically important antigenic differences between vaccine strains and wild-type rabies viruses. Further, we quantitatively assessed the antigenic relationships measured by using rabbit, mouse, and human sera, validating the use of nonhuman experimental animals as a model for determining antigenic variation in humans. The use of passive immune globulin is a crucial component of rabies postexposure prophylaxis, and here we also show that it is possible to predict the reactivity of immune globulin against divergent lyssaviruses.

Rabies is an important public health concern in North America because of recent epidemics of a rabies virus variant associated with raccoons. The costs associated with surveillance, diagnostic testing, and post-exposure treatment of humans exposed to rabies have fostered coordinated efforts to control rabies spread by distributing an oral rabies vaccine to wild raccoons. Authorities have tried to contain westward expansion of the epidemic front of raccoon-associated rabies via a vaccine corridor established in counties of eastern Ohio, western Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. Although sporadic cases of rabies have been identified in Ohio since oral rabies vaccine distribution in 1998, the first evidence of a significant breach in this vaccine corridor was not detected until 2004 in Lake County, Ohio. Herein, we forecast the spatial spread of rabies in Ohio from this breach using a stochastic spatial model that was first developed for exploratory data analysis in Connecticut and next used to successfully hind-cast wave-front dynamics of rabies spread across New York. The projections, based on expansion from the Lake County breach, are strongly affected by the spread of rabies by rare, but unpredictable long-distance translocation of rabid raccoons; rabies may traverse central Ohio at a rate 2.5-fold greater than previously analyzed wildlife epidemics. Using prior estimates of the impact of local heterogeneities on wave-front propagation and of the time lag between surveillance-based detection of an initial rabies case to full-blown epidemic, specific regions within the state are identified for vaccine delivery and expanded surveillance effort., A model predicting that the spread of rabies across Ohio will be much more rapid than elsewhere reveals the power of this approach to pro-actively assist targeted surveillance strategies and vaccine delivery

SummaryWild birds harbor a large gene pool of influenza A viruses that have the potential to cause influenza pandemics. Foreseeing and understanding this potential is important for effective surveillance. Our phylogenetic and geographic analyses revealed the global prevalence of avian influenza virus genes whose proteins differ only a few amino acids from the 1918 pandemic influenza virus, suggesting that 1918-like pandemic viruses may emerge in the future. To assess this risk, we generated and characterized a virus composed of avian influenza viral segments with high homology to the 1918 virus. This virus exhibited pathogenicity in mice and ferrets higher than that in an authentic avian influenza virus. Further, acquisition of seven amino acid substitutions in the viral polymerases and the hemagglutinin surface glycoprotein conferred respiratory droplet transmission to the 1918-like avian virus in ferrets, demonstrating that contemporary avian influenza viruses with 1918 virus-like proteins may have pandemic potential.