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© 2021 by the authors. In micro-lending markets, lack of recorded credit history is a significant impediment to assessing individual borrowers’ creditworthiness and therefore deciding fair interest rates. This research compares various machine learning algorithms on real micro-lending data to test their efficacy at classifying borrowers into various credit categories. We demonstrate that off-the-shelf multi-class classifiers such as random forest algorithms can perform this task very well, using readily available data about customers (such as age, occupation, and location). This presents inexpensive and reliable means to micro-lending institutions around the developing world with which to assess creditworthiness in the absence of credit history or central credit databases.

Employing a unique dataset that covers households from six West African capitals, this paper provides new evidence on the demand for informal sector products and services. We first investigate whether demand linkages exist between formal and informal products and distribution channels, and whether there is an overlapping customer base, which would imply that both formal sector wage earners and informal workers buy both formal and informal products using both formal and informal distribution channels. In a second step, we estimate demand elasticities based on Engel curves. We find a strongly overlapping customer base and strong demand-side linkages between the formal and informal sector, with the exception that informal goods are hardly bought through formal distribution channels. The estimated demand elasticities tend to show that rising incomes are associated with a lower propensity to consume informal sector goods and to use informal distribution channels. We therefore conclude that the informal sector in West Africa is likely to be constrained from the demand side.

Growing research and policy interest focuses on the misallocation of output and factors of production in developing economies. This paper considers the possible misallocation of financial loans. Using plant-level data on the organized and unorganized sectors, the paper describes the temporal, geographic, and industry distributions of financial loans. The focus of the analysis is the hypothesis that land misallocation might be an important determinant of financial misallocation (for example, because of the role of land as collateral against loans). Using district-industry variations, the analysis finds evidence to support this hypothesis, although it does not find a total reduction in the intensity of financial loans or those being given to new entrants. The analysis also considers differences by gender of business owners and workers in firms. Although potential early gaps for businesses with substantial female employment have disappeared in the organized sector, a sizeable and persistent gap remains in the unorganized sector.

This report explores the potential financing mechanism options that can be employed to catalyze more private sector investment in clean energy (renewable energy and energy efficiency) in the small island developing states (SIDS). Various financial instruments that have been used successfully to date are described and placed in the context of the issues and constraints of the SIDS, with suggested options for discussion and follow up. Green infrastructure finance, as defined in the report, makes the important point that is the combination of financial and nonfinancial interventions and instruments that can make green investments in infrastructure more affordable and less risky to private sponsors, financial markets, and governments. The objective of this report is to identify and assess options that can help increase investment in renewable energy and energy efficiency in SIDS through the adoption and funding of financing mechanisms by SIDS and development partners with special attention given to the role that the private sector can play. Many renewable energy technologies are characterized by high initial capital costs with relatively low operating costs compared to thermal alternatives. By providing an analysis of options for a financing facility to catalyze renewable energy and energy efficiency, this work is intended to inform the discussions among SIDS and development partners interested in actions to stimulate investment in renewable energy and energy efficiency. This report summarizes the results of the two stages. The assessment and selection of options identifies a number of measures that will be needed to stimulate increased private sector participation - project sponsors and developers, equity funds, lending institutions - for energy efficiency and renewable energy. The background material reviewed for this report has been summarized in the annexes.

Mestrado em Ciências Empresariais O objetivo do presente estudo é analisar em que medida o microcrédito funciona como instrumento de combate à pobreza. Ele encontra-se apoiado em dados do continente africano, com especial foco na situação de Moçambique. O microcrédito nasce da consciência de exclusão dos pobres relativamente ao acesso a serviços financeiros formais. Embora a literatura reconheça no microcrédito uma mais-valia para as categorias socioeconómicas menos abastadas, existem autores que têm vindo a levantar dúvidas sobre o impacto positivo do microcrédito no combate à pobreza em África. A relação entre as duas dimensões (microcrédito e pobreza) é ilustrada a partir do estudo de caso de Moçambique, fazendo uma comparação com outros países do continente africano a partir de indicadores socioeconómicos e financeiros. De forma a atingir os objetivos propostos, desenvolveu um enquadramento teórico dos diversos conceitos fundamentais, tais como: pobreza, microcrédito e instituições de finanças. A análise da situação em Moçambique permitiu transpor para a prática os temas anteriormente expostos. Concluiu-se que o microcrédito pode auxiliar no combate à pobreza ao aumentar a quantidade de ativos disponíveis para os mais pobres e excluídos do acesso ao crédito tradicional. No entanto, encontram-se regiões no mundo inteiro, é inclusive o caso de Moçambique, onde o acesso ao microcrédito apresenta sérias dificuldades e onde o índice de pobreza é elevado embora a tendência seja para uma diminuição gradual. Pelo facto de que os efeitos do microcrédito poderão ser ainda discutíveis e dividir opiniões, os resultados obtidos não são de todo esclarecedores. The purpose of this study is to analyze to what extent microcredit works as a tool to fight poverty. It is supported by data from the African continent, with special focus on the situation in Mozambique. Microcredit derives from the awareness of exclusion of the poor regarding the access to formal financial services. Although the literature recognizes in the microcredit an added value for less than wealthy socioeconomic categories, some authors have been raising questions on its positive impact in combating poverty in Africa. The relationship between the two dimensions (microcredit and poverty) is illustrated from the case study about Mozambique, by comparing its socio-economic and financial indicators with those from other African countries. In order to meet the proposed objectives, a theoretical framework of the various fundamental concepts, such as poverty, micro-credit and finance institutions will be developed. The analysis of the situation in Mozambique allowed us to transpose the above mentioned issues into practice. It was concluded that microcredit can help fight poverty by increasing the amount of assets available to the poorest and to those excluded from the access to traditional credit. However, there are regions worldwide, as is the case of Mozambique, where access to microcredit presents serious difficulties and where the poverty rate is high, even though there is a tendency towards a gradual decrease. Since the effects of microcredit may still be questionable and split views, the results are not clear at all.

As we think about the last several decades and what has really moved the needle in international development, we can't help but acknowledge the revolution in financial services to the poor that has grown into the multi-billion dollar micro-finance industry.

The nexus of improved energy access, direct health benefits and reduced indoor air pollution can be achieved in part through expanding access to clean cookstoves and fuels. This is of particular significance to approximately three billion people, mainly in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa, who still rely on solid fuels (traditional biomass and coal) for cooking and heating. Large-scale adoption and sustained use of clean cookstoves is not materializing due to a variety of context specific barriers both on the consumer and producer/distributor sides. While financing in terms of a lack of investment and working capital appear to be constraints for producers, lack of information, awareness, and cultural barriers dominate for consumers and should not be underestimated. Addressing these challenges requires a multi-pronged approach across four key drivers that have been identified through reviewing successful programs: awareness raising; markets and preferences; technologies and standards; and innovative financing.

European Commission This chapter highlights the growing global and European financial inclusion agenda and provides a brief assessment of vulnerability and labor market outcomes for Roma in Eastern Europe. Financial inclusion is considered by many to be among the main instruments to improve welfare, especially among the poor, which need financial services as much as, if not more, than non-poor, to reduce vulnerability and improve self-employment. Following a brief description of the main data sources used in the analysis, the chapter highlights the very high levels of vulnerability and exclusion among Roma in Eastern Europe and the poor labor market outcomes by any measure, including extremely low employment rates and high informality. Against this background, the following chapters assess financial exclusion among Roma, and self-employment levels and (credit) barriers to starting businesses. The final chapter highlights international experiences promoting comprehensive, incremental approaches to financial inclusion.

Micro and Small Enterprises (MSEs) in developing countries are typically considered to be severely credit constrained. Additionally, high business risks may partly explain why capital stocks of MSEs remain low. This article analyzes the determinants of capital stocks of MSEs in poor economies focusing on credit constraints and risk. The analysis is based on a unique, albeit cross sectional but backward looking, micro data set on MSEs covering the economic capitals of seven West-African countries. The main result is that capital market imperfections indeed seem to explain an important part of the variation in capital stocks in the early lifetime of MSEs. Furthermore, the analyses show that risk plays a key role for capital accumulation. Risk-averse individuals seem to adjust their initially low capital stocks upwards when enterprises grow older. MSEs in risky activities owned by wealthy individuals even seem to over-invest when they start their business and adjust capital stocks downwards subsequently. As other firms simultaneously suffer from capital shortages, such behavior may imply large inefficiencies.

This is the final consolidated report of an extensive program to assess the financial performance and capacity building needs of the UPK Revolving Loan Funds under the PNPM Mandiri project. As explained in the report, the assessment program covered 508 rural and urban UPKs in the provinces of Central Java, Yogyakarta, Nusa Tenggara Timor and West Sumatra. The aim was to cover 30 percent of rural UPK RLFs in these four provinces and 10 percent of the urban UPKs in order to establish the achievements and determine areas of improvement to enable these UPKs to provide a better service to the low income families in their operational areas. This report covers all 267 rural UPK RLFs and 241 urban UPKs identified for the purpose in the four provinces.

The World Bank commissioned this report as part of a set of studies concerned with the Uganda Demobilization and Reintegration Program and the Amnesty Commission. The study represents one element of the set of studies which included the Final Independent Evaluation of the Uganda Emergency Demobilization and Reintegration Project (UgDRP), Reporter Reintegration Survey and Community Dynamics Survey, and a study on the relationship between the Amnesty Commission and its DDR Implementing Partners study. The background field work and research for this study was integrated into the overall background research and fieldwork for the set of studies. In this study the focus of the analysis is on processes of reintegration rather than the achievement of a static marker of reintegration. In other words rather than examining the experience of reporters to identify the ones who are reintegrated and the ones who are not, the study examines the complex interplay of elements in the process of social and economic reintegration to identify which drivers have most influenced (positively and negatively) the reintegration process in which reporters are and have been engaged. The study identifies the drivers of successful or unsuccessful reintegration and the crosscutting dynamics such as gender, tradition, poverty and economic markets that exacerbate the impact of drivers of reintegration on the lives of reporters and communities. The report presents actionable findings that can inform future programming in the area. The overall purpose of the study is to provide an analysis of the drivers of reintegration and to identify the distinguishing features of successful reintegration amongst reporters.

(english) This paper investigates the dynamics of the informal sector in Madagascar during a period of fragile growth. Overall, the behavior of informal firms in terms of earnings, employment and capital accumulation points to a degree of heterogeneity which goes beyond a simple dualistic model and even a more refined model that would distinguish between an upper entrepreneurial and a lower subsistence tier within the informal sector. However, in line with the dualistic model, the informal sector indeed fulfils a labor absorbing function in times of crisis. During the growth period we see capital accumulation in most of the sectors and lots of evidence that households expand their activities. However, this happens mainly through the creation of new firms instead of the expansion of existing ones, which is consistent with much higher returns at very low levels of capital. More rapid expansion can be observed in sectors that operate with lower capital intensity, which is also consistent with risk or credit constraints as major deterrents to expansion. While there is some indication that total factor productivity increased over time, returns to capital and labor where not higher at the end of the observation period than at the beginning. Returns are also rather low at high levels of capital. These findings point to a limited growth potential of the informal sector as a whole. The heterogeneity in capital returns hints at large inefficiencies in allocating capital across informal firms. _________________________________ (français) Cet article examine la dynamique du secteur informel à Madagascar pendant une période de croissance fragile. Le comportement des firmes informelles en termes de revenus, d’emploi et d’accumulation du capital suggère un degré d’hétérogénéité allant au-delà du modèle dualiste classique, et même d’un modèle plus fin distinguant, au sein du secteur informel, un segment entrepreneurial et un segment de subsistance. Cependant, conformément au modèle dualiste, le secteur informel a absorbé le surplus de travail en temps de crise. Pendant la période de croissance, on constate une accumulation de capital dans la plupart des secteurs d’activité et une expansion des activités des ménages. Ceci se traduit pourtant principalement par la création de nouvelles firmes plutôt que par la croissance de firmes existantes, en lien avec des rendements beaucoup plus élevés à des faibles niveaux de capital. Une expansion plus rapide peut être observée dans les secteurs à faible intensité capitalistique, ce qui tend également à confirmer que le risque et les contraintes de crédit sont des obstacles à l’expansion. Alors que les résultats montrent que la productivité totale des facteurs a augmenté, les rendements du capital et du travail ne sont pas plus élevés à la fin de la période étudiée qu’au début. Les rendements sont également plutôt faibles à des niveaux élevés de capital. Ces résultats indiquent un potentiel de croissance globalement limité des firmes informelles. Enfin, l’hétérogénéité des rendements du capital plaide en faveur d’une allocation sous-optimale du capital dans le secteur informel.

Adaptation to human-induced climate change is currently receiving a lot of attention in international development circles. But throughout human existence, natural resource-dependent people have exploited and coped with the effects of climate variability on the ecosystems from which they derive a living. Learning from this experience can help inform the design of appropriate policies for responding to human-induced climate change. This paper presents the results of a World Bank study which sought to better understand the role of local institutions in supporting adaptation to climate variability and change in Ethiopia, Mali and Yemen. The study raised three questions. First, what strategies have been adopted by rural households in the past to adapt to climate variability? Second, to what extent do institutions of various sorts assist households in adopting adaptation strategies? And third, what are the factors that prevent households from adopting appropriate adaptation strategies? For the purposes of this paper, institutions are defined as structured, formal or informal organizations. The study followed a three-step approach. First, drawing on original data from field surveys, focus group discussions and institutional stakeholder interviews, household vulnerability to climate variability was characterized in terms of its three constituent elements: exposure to climate-related shocks and stresses, and sensitivity and adaptive capacity in the face of such stressors. Sensitivity refers to the degree to which people are affected by climate variability and change. High levels of exposure and sensitivity and low levels of adaptive capacity generally result in high levels of vulnerability. But a high level of exposure need not necessarily result in a high level of vulnerability if the household's adaptive capacity is also high.

Social reproduction is the highest for self-employed as shown by an extensive literature from developed and developing countries. Very few studies however document the reason for this high intergenerational correlation of the self-employed status. The rare studies that have been done concern the US and show that children of self-employed benefit from an advantage when they are themselves self-employed. The purpose of this paper is to test if the second-generation of self-employed has an advantage related to the first-generation in the African context. It aims at highlighting the debate on firms heterogeneity in the informal sector, and seeks to contribute to understand the intergenerational transmission of inequalities. Using 1-2-3 surveys collected in the commercial capitals of seven West African countries in 2001-2002, this paper shows that the second-generation of informal selfemployed does not have better outcomes than the first one, except when they choose a familial tradition in the same sector of activity. Thus, in the African context, having a self-employed father does not provide any advantage in terms of profit or sales and is not sufficient for the transmission of valuable skills. On the other hand, informal entrepreneurs who have chosen a specific enterprise based on familial tradition have a competitive advantage. Their competitive advantage is partly explained by the transmission of enterprise-specific human capital, acquired through experiences in the same type of activity and by the transmission of social capital. _________________________________ Très peu d’études documentent les raisons de la très forte reproduction sociale observée parmi les entrepreneurs, aussi bien dans les pays développés que dans les pays en développement. Les rares études, portant sur les E.U, montrent que les enfants d’entrepreneurs ont de meilleures performances quand ils sont eux-mêmes entrepreneurs que les enfants de salariés. Cet article teste si ce résultat se vérifie dans le contexte du secteur informel ouest-africain et cherche à en comprendre les raisons. Il vise par conséquent à éclairer le débat portant sur l’hétérogénéité des entreprises informelles, en identifiant des facteurs de succès, mais il cherche aussi à mieux comprendre les mécanismes à l’origine de la transmission intergénérationnelles des inégalités en Afrique. En se basant sur les enquêtes 1-2-3 collectées dans sept capitale ouest-africaines, cet article montre que la seconde génération d’entrepreneurs informels ne bénéficient pas d’un avantage comparatif, sauf s’ils bénéficient d’une tradition familiale dans leur secteur d’activité. Ainsi, dans le contexte ouest-africain, avoir un père entrepreneur ne suffit pas à la transmission de compétences managériales. En revanche, les entrepreneurs qui ont choisi leur secteur d’activité par tradition familiale ont un avantage qui s’explique principalement par la transmission de compétences spécifiques au secteur d’activité et par la transmission d’un capital social.

This paper analyses the impact of a microfinance institution (MFI) serving small informal enterprises in Antananarivo (Madagascar). The methodology consists of comparing over time the situation of a representative sample of clients' enterprises with a control group, constructed in an almost experimental way through a standard propensity-score matching technique. Overall, the results indicate a positive impact of the project. Taken as a snapshot, the evaluations successively conducted in 2001 and 2004 indicate that the clients' enterprises recorded better average performance than enterprises without funding. With a dynamic perspective however, the results are more nuanced. If the positive effect of the project is clear during growth phases, its effect during economic recessions appears less certain.

5ème Forum économique et financier franco- vietnamien sur le financement du développement, Hanoï, 19-20 janvier 2005.; Ce Forum organisé par l'Assistance au Développement des Echanges en Technologie Economique et Financière (ADETEF) près du Ministère des Finances a abordé plusieurs aspects du financement de l'économie vietnamienne. Le micro-crédit est aussi très développé dans ce pays où une loi vient d'être votée à son sujet. Ma contribution fait le point des différentes expériences menées actuellement au Vietnam et fait apparaître quelques-uns des problèmes qu'elles soulèvent.

AUF et Editions des Archives Contemporaines, Paris, 2006; Il s'agit du premier titre d'une nouvelle collection "Savoirs Francophones" ouverte par l'Agence Universitaire de la Francophonie pour accueillir les travaux, individuels ou collectifs, des chercheurs du Nord et du Sud impliqués dans les différents réseaux de l'Agence.La microfinance est au premier plan de l'actualité avec la décision de l'ONU de faire de l'année 2005 l'année du micro-crédit. On ne parlait ni de l'un ni de l'autre il y a vingt ans. Quelques chercheurs s'intéressaient pourtant à la finance dans les pays du Sud. Que s'est-il passé pour que ces nouveaux concepts arrivent aussi rapidement au premier plan de l'actualité ? Que recouvrent-ils exactement, et quels problèmes rencontrent les institutions qui se sont engouffrées dans ce nouveau créneau ?Ce petit ouvrage voudrait être une introduction à la microfinance : D'où vient-elle ? Comment s'est-elle développée jusqu'à ce jour ? Où va-t-elle et comment peut-elle évoluer ?

Le micro-crédit est salué comme un moyen de réduire la pauvreté dans le monde que la communauté internationale viendrait de découvrir. La réalité est un peu différente.

Communication présentée aux Journées scientifiques organisées par le Réseau Entrepreneuriat de l'Agence Universitaire de la Francophonie et par l'Université d'Abomey-Calavi à Cotonou en avril 2002.; International audience; The 1980s saw the emergence of a system of informal financial institutions. Over the last few years, the developing world in Africa, Asia, Latin America has witnessed the appearance and progression of a system of `microfinance.This article examines the reasons that explain this evolution and the rise and importance of the development of microfinancial institutions. The paper analyses some of the problems created by these new institutions, such as the questions related to the type of regulatory framework to impose on them, to their possible relationship with established banks, and to their role within the existing financial systems.; Les années 80 ont été marquées par l'émergence de la finance informelle. Depuis quelques années c'est la microfinance que l'on voit apparaître et progresser dans la plupart des pays en voie de développement, en Afrique, en Asie, en Amérique latine... Cet article s'interroge sur les raisons de cette évolution et de la montée en puissance des institutions de microfinance. Il analyse quelques-uns des problèmes posés par les nouvelles institutions : quelle réglementation leur appliquer, quelles peuvent être leurs relations avec les banques et leur place au sein des systèmes financiers...?

RésuméDésormais le développement de l'entrepreneuriat concerne les populations urbaines et rurales, il est un élément crucial de la sécurisation des revenus et plus globalement du développement économique. Mais d'importants facteurs de blocage freinent ce développement, à savoir le financement des petites entreprises qui représente pour la majorité des entrepreneurs la contrainte majeure qui entrave la création de leurs propres entreprises. L’objectif de ce travail est d’identifier les facteurs socio-économiques qui expliquent la décision de l’octroi des microcrédits aux nouveaux promoteurs par les institutions de micro-finance. Les résultats d’un modèle Logit binominal indiquent qu’il n’existe pas de comportement discriminatoire vis à vis des entrepreneurs selon leurs genres et leurs états matrimoniaux alors que les diplômés de niveau supérieur bénéficient d’une discrimination positive. Le secteur d’activité et le montant sollicité par l’entrepreneur sont des facteurs déterminants dans l’accès au financement.AbstractNowadays, the development of entrepreneurship affects both the urban and the rural population. It is a crucial element in securing the income and the overall economic development. However, significant factors, namely small business financing, hinder this development. This factor represents the major constraint for most entrepreneurs in the creation of their own businesses. The objective of this study is to identify the socioeconomic factors that explain the decision of granting microcredits to new promoters of microfinance institutions. The results of a binominal Logit model indicate that there is no discrimination based on gender or marital status when granting credits. However, graduates enjoy a higher level of positive discrimination. The business activity and the amount requested by the contractor are the factors to access financing.