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This occasional paper presents national demographic subgroup data for the 1975-2021 Monitoring the Future (MTF) national survey results on 8th, 10th, and 12th graders' use of drugs, alcohol, and tobacco. The study covers all major classes of illicit and licit psychoactive drugs for an array of population subgroups. The 2020 subgroup data presented here accompany the "Monitoring the Future National Survey Results on Drug Use: 1975-2021: Overview, Key Findings on Adolescent Drug Use" (see ED618240) and the "Monitoring the Future National Survey Results on Drug Use, 1975-2021, forthcoming: Volume I, Secondary School Students." The trends offered here in tabular and graphic forms cover demographic subgroups based on: (1) Gender; (2) College plans; (3) Region of the country; (4) Population density; (5) Education level of the parents (a proxy for socioeconomic level); and (6) Racial/ethnic identification. Detailed descriptions of the demographic categories are provided in the section starting on page 469 of this paper. The graphs and tables in this occasional paper present trend data for 8th-, 10th-, and 12th-grade respondents separately. Data for 12th grade begins with 1975, the first year in which a nationally representative sample of high school seniors was surveyed. Data for 8th and 10th grades begin with 1991, when the study's nationally representative annual surveys were expanded to include surveys of those lower grade levels.

Equal educational opportunity is a core American value. Yet many children of low-income or minority racial or ethnic status attend public schools that are lower quality compared with those that white children or high-income children attend. And data indicate that, on average, low-income or minority children score lower on states' elementary-school accountability tests compared with higher-income children or white children. Such test-score gaps serve as evidence of unequal educational opportunity. This study uses information from metropolitan areas and from school districts to understand which factors are strongly related to the size of racial and socioeconomic test-score gaps. One key factor is the degree to which state aid to school districts is distributed progressively--that is, distributed disproportionately to districts with high fractions of students living in poverty--with progressive distributions associated with smaller test-score gaps in high-poverty metros or districts. Second, test-score gaps are larger in metropolitan areas and districts where poverty segregation is greater, that is, where, compared with white children or higher-income children, minority children or low-income children go to school with, or are in school districts with, more students from low-income families.

Although trends in the racial segregation of schools are well documented, less is known about trends in "income" segregation. We use multiple data sources to document trends in income segregation between schools and school districts. Between-district income segregation of families with children enrolled in public school increased by over 15% from 1990 to 2010. Within large districts, between-school segregation of students who are eligible and ineligible for free lunch increased by over 40% from 1991 to 2012. Consistent with research on neighborhood segregation, we find that rising income inequality contributed to the rise in income segregation between schools and districts during this period. The rise in income segregation between both schools and districts may have serious implications for inequality in students' access to resources that bear on academic achievement.

There is a slowly emerging literature that seeks to understand how the Great Recession affected other parts of the economy; however, there is no research that examines the effect of Great Recession (or any other recession) on schools. Given the fundamental role of education in human capital formation and growth, it is essential to understand the effect of recessions on schools. This paper starts to fill this gap. Exploiting detailed data on a multitude of school finance indicators and a trend shift analysis, it examines how the Great Recession affected school funding in NY. While we find no evidence of effects on either total revenue or expenditure, there were important compositional changes to both. There is strong evidence of substitution of funds on the revenue side--the infusion of funds with the federal stimulus occurred simultaneously with statistically and economically significant cuts in state and local financing, especially the former. On the expenditure side, instructional expenditure was maintained, while several non-instruction categories like transportation, student activities and utilities suffered. Important heterogeneities in experiences are also observed by poverty, metro areas, size, and urban status. Affluent districts were hurt the most, while analysis by metro areas reveal that the NYC metropolitan area, and especially Nassau, sustained largest losses. The findings of this study promise to facilitate our understanding of how recessions affect schools and the role policy can play to mitigate the consequences.

How well do our education policies prepare America's youth for the labor market? What challenges limit our success, and what opportunities do we have for improvements? Can public policy play a greater role in encouraging more success? I consider these questions as they apply to the unique characteristics of metropolitan areas in the U.S. Most labor markets are metropolitan in nature, with workers commuting across central-city and suburban municipalities to jobs wherever they are located. In most metro areas, jobs (especially those paying higher wages) and different groups of residents are distributed unevenly; white and minority residents and those with higher and lower incomes are often quite highly segregated from each other residentially. These characteristics of metro areas should be taken into account as we consider what kinds of education and workforce policies and reforms to implement. This paper begins with a brief overview of the future U.S. labor market, including a review of trends in the demand for labor. In particular, I consider demand for both middle- and high-skill jobs, where the former are defined as those requiring some postsecondary education or training (broadly defined) beyond a high school diploma but less than a bachelor's degree, and the latter are defined as those requiring a bachelor's or higher. I then review the challenges limiting so many young Americans as they prepare for the labor market, as well as what we know about programs and policies that might improve observed outcomes. (Contains 27 footnotes.)

Concerned about the persistently high dropout rates from big-city secondary schools, education leaders are trying a new approach to increasing the graduation rate--multiple pathways to graduation. Multiple pathways initiatives are relatively new and far from proven. Even the most advanced examples face significant issues, i.e., the need to demonstrate that students who graduate via multiple pathways are as well prepared as graduates from regular high schools. However, multiple pathways initiatives are clearly a significant new development, using analysis of student data to provide much better targeted remedies to students' individual problems than were possible in earlier dropout prevention programs. This report is based on interviews with district and foundation leaders and scholars who were among the originators of the multiple pathways idea. This report provides snapshots of different approaches to multiple pathways evident in New York, Portland, Oregon, other Eastern and Midwestern cities, and a California multi-district collaborative. This report distinguishes three different approaches to providing multiple pathways to graduation: (1) Targeted Population approach; (2) District-Wide approach; and (3) Linked Learning approach. This report describes these approaches in detail, provides examples of each, and analyzes what district leaders must do if they want to implement one or another of the approaches. The report ends with an analysis of how well the different multiple pathways approaches are likely to work in districts with particular characteristics. Appendices include: (1) Interview Questions; (2) Interviewees; (3) Graduation Rate Measurements; and (4) Suggested Effectiveness Dashboard. (Contains 1 figure and 23 footnotes.) [This paper was written with Paul Hill.]

Despite the growing ideological divisions, there has been a surprising political convergence on some issues related to urban policy, social services, and housing. From the spread of charter schools and school choice to the expansion of home ownership through financial deregulation, it is apparent that liberals and conservatives agree. Yet these points of agreement hide or exacerbate racial and economic segregation, and geographically concentrate its deleterious consequences. The Obama Administration's embrace of urban charter schools and school choice is emblematic of this convergence, yet in fact, charter schools are even more segregated than regular public schools. Despite lack of evidence of their efficacy, and strong empirical support for benefits of school integration, Administration officials fail to describe the achievement gap as a reflection of metropolitan segregation. Establishing racially homogenous charter schools in urban neighborhoods, even where charter schools are successful, is but the latest example of what George Romney's allies dismissed as "gilding the ghetto." George Romney had a better approach. He understood that the suburbs themselves must be desegregated so that disadvantaged children could attend predominantly middle class schools in their own neighborhoods. He was defeated in his efforts, and partly because of this defeat, the achievement gap between black and white children has not narrowed nearly as much as it might have done in the last half century. It is unlikely to narrow much further without revisiting the imperative of residential integration in the metropolitan areas. (Contains 126 endnotes.)

Teachers are systematically sorted across schools. Often, schools serving the lowest-achieving students are staffed by the least-skilled teachers. While teachers' school preferences account for some of the sorting, school practices are also likely to be a key factor. Using value-added methods, the authors examine the relationship between a school's effectiveness during a given principal's tenure and the retention, recruitment and development of its teachers. Three key findings emerge about principal effectiveness. More effective principals: (1) are able to retain higher-quality teachers and remove less-effective teachers; (2) are able to attract and hire higher-quality teachers to fill vacancies; and (3) have teachers who improve at a greater pace than those in schools with less effective leadership (there is some evidence for this, albeit weak). These findings reinforce the importance of personnel practices for effective school leadership. Appendices include: (1) Model Specifications for Estimating Principal Value-Added; and (2) Bayesian Shrinkage. (Contains 7 tables, 3 figures, and 7 footnotes.)

This analysis addresses the role of car usage in employment outcomes such as employment status, average weekly wages, and weeks worked per year. It postulates that car ownership is an important employment tool for adults of low educational attainment in Portland, even in the context of other factors such as social networks/resources (social capital) and literacy skills (human capital). This research used data from the Longitudinal Study of Adult Learning to examine the role of car usage in employment outcomes. The results indicate a strong relationship between car ownership and employment status, average weekly wage, and weeks worked per year. Additional analysis shows that this relationship remains strong even when other factors, such as education level, literacy proficiency, and social networks are accounted for in the model. Interestingly, the relationship varied by gender. Car usage generally was more influential in the employment outcomes of men than of women. These results show that car usage is important for non-high school graduates in Portland, and that while literacy proficiency is important as well, its impact is separate from car ownership. This work seems to suggest some directions for programs geared toward helping individuals with low educational attainment find and maintain employment. The answer may not necessarily lie solely with car ownership assistance; indeed, as suggested by this research, a combination of literacy proficiency training and flexible transportation alternatives would likely have the greatest impact. (Contains 9 tables, 7 footnotes, and 1 figure.)

This paper classifies the university economic impacts on a local community into their short- and long-term effects. The study then offers a classification scheme of university communities by the size of their regions and by their influences. Next, the paper suggests ways that economic impacts vary across university types and describes and critiques examples of short- and long-term studies that have been done. The local expenditure impact of a university is immediately noticeable. Knowledge impacts affect the community over a longer term. The extent of the economic impact of a college or university is related to the range of its influence and the character of the community in which it is located. Institutions in college towns have large regional expenditure and small knowledge impacts; metropolitan schools with regional reputations have small expenditure and large knowledge impacts. Economic impact studies previously done include income expenditure studies, American Council of Education studies, economic base studies, input-output studies, econometric studies, and knowledge impact studies. Seven exhibits presenting the data are included. (Contains 86 references.) (CK)

For most children, the racial composition of their neighborhood determines the racial composition of their school. Segregated housing patterns translate into a highly segregated educational system, which can then result in disparities in educational opportunities and an institutionalized mechanism for the reproduction of racial inequality. To better understand the extent to which the racial composition of charter and magnet schools deviates from their neighborhood composition, this study analyzes public elementary schools in five California metropolitan areas. The findings suggest that individual schools can expose children to a more racially integrated or segregated educational environment than their local neighborhood. Magnet schools, on average, provide students with a more integrated environment than the local neighborhood, while charter schools provide a more segregated environment. (Contains 24 references.) (SM)

A review of research literature relating to vocational education and training (VET) in non-metropolitan Australia identified issues which differentially impact metropolitan and non-metropolitan Australia and research needs. Findings indicated non-metropolitan Australia is diverse in terms of population density, educational experiences of the population, occupation, and industries for employment. Rural people were less likely to have post-school qualifications, participate in post-school education and training, be employed, and be a professional working in manufacturing, property and business services, or finance and insurance. Rural people were more likely to have left school early, be unemployed or out of the labor force, work in small business, be self-employed or an employer, be a laborer or have other low-skilled occupation, and work in agriculture, forestry and fishing, mining, construction, or tourism. The following seven issues demonstrate differential impact or need further research: local involvement in planning; thin markets; cost of training and measurement of cost and effectiveness; flexible delivery; no tradition of VET or history of valuing education; quality and availability of trainers and assessors; and community sustainability, social capital, and the value of VET to communities. (A 59-item bibliography is appended.) (YLB)

This paper examines the effects of preschool expansion in Kalamazoo County on the county's economic development. Effects on the county's economic development are defined as effects on the employment and earnings of county residents. The estimated effects are found to be large relative to the costs. In addition to their relevance to Kalamazoo County, these simulations illustrate how the analysis presented in two previous papers (Bartik 2006, 2008) can be done for an individual county or metropolitan area. Such simulations may be of interest to other counties or metropolitan areas that are considering expansions in early childhood programs. The following tables are appended: (1) Job Creation Numbers for Four Preschool Expansions in Kalamazoo County, Each Year from 2009 to 2100; and (2) Earnings Creation Numbers in Kalamazoo County for 4 Preschool Expansions, Each Year from 2009 to 2100, in Millions of 2008 Dollars. (Contains 3 figures and 7 tables.)

This paper provides new information on what proportion of individuals spend their adult work lives in their childhood metropolitan area or state. I also examine how this proportion varies across different demographic groups, and with the size and growth rate of the metropolitan area. I find that the proportion of individuals who spend most of their adulthood in their childhood metropolitan area is surprisingly high. Furthermore, this proportion does not go down as much as one might think for smaller or slower-growing metropolitan areas, or for college-educated persons. These findings imply that state and local investments in children may pay off for the state or local area that makes these investments. A surprisingly large proportion of the individuals who benefit from these childhood investments will remain in the same state or local area as adults, thereby boosting the local economy. Appendices include: (1) Notes on Processing the PSID Data; and (2) Tobit Estimates for Staying Propensity, Estimation Restricted to Metro Areas in Lowest Population Quintile. (Contains 18 footnotes, 8 tables, and 24 figures.)

A recursive model that accounts for the variation in the level and distribution of family income across metropolitan areas is formulated and estimated in this paper. The model draws from both the human capital and the job competition theories of the labor market in the emphasis it places on the industrial structure of the metropolitan area. Then, the impacts of changes in racial, educational, and industrial composition on the level and distribution of income are analyzed. This paper differs most from earlier works in its emphasis on the determination of both the income level and its distribution. It is shown that many of the variables have opposing effects on the dependent variables. It is held that the results can be used, with caution, to speculate about the likely effects of changes in industrial composition and other attributes of an area and its labor force on the level and distribution of income. The results are seen to establish a case for further analysis of the relationship between income levels and the degree of inequality across metropolitan areas. (Author/AM)

An overview of the level and distribution of income for a sample of Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas (SMSAs) during the period 1959-1969, using data on pretax pretransfer incomes published by the Internal Revenue Service, is presented in this paper. Several results are described. (1) The level and distribution of income vary widely among the SMSAs. (2) A majority of the SMSAs experience an increase in inequality during the 1959-1969 period. (3) Differences among the SMSAs in both income level and degree of income inequality narrows. (4) Higher rates of growth of income are associated with smaller increases in inequality. While this paper is descriptive, the author hopes that the data set will be useful for testing theories that relate the income level and income distributions of metropolitan areas to their urban problems--for example, whether increases in SMSA crime rates or the incidence of urban riots or urban fiscal problems can be explained by changes in the level and distribution of metropolitan area incomes. (Author/AM)

The United States is a highly urbanized nation with space in abundance, yet large portions of its national territory are emptying out. The counterpart of this pervasive population decline is a highly selective pattern of growth, conferred by a national system of migration flows that has increasingly favored a certain few metropolitan areas. This duality of growth and decline, and its dependence on an intricate system of migration flows, are central features of U.S. urbanization. Migration is a key observable phenomenon, expressing the urbanization process and hence promising insight into its workings. This paper examines U.S. migration first from a broad analytical viewpoint and then through the experience of two specific cities. Section Two considers the functions and dynamics of the migration process: what causes migration to occur, what its effects are on migrants, and how it affects the places they leave and the places to which they go. Sections Three and Four present two specific metropolitan area case studies within which general urbanization phenomena are examined: San Jose, California, a case study of rapid population growth; and the city of Saint Louis which exemplifies central-city population decline. (Author/JM)

Investigating the distinction between submetropolitanization and decentralization of industry, the "Datafile for National Sample of Nonmetropolitan Counties" (a 10 percent national sample, involving 205 counties) was employed to test the following hypotheses: (1) the nearer the county to a Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area (SMSA), the higher the level of manufacturing activities; (2) the higher the level of activities, the higher the degree of concentration, density, and number of residents working in services; (3) the larger the size of the surrounding metropolitan population, the higher the levels of density, population concentration, and service employed residents in the rural county; (4) the closer the rural county to SMSA, the greater the net migration; (5) the larger the size of the surrounding metropolitan population, the higher the level of net migration in the rural county; (6) the more isolated the county, the greater the importance of size of the largest city in attracting jobs and providing residences and affecting positively further growth. Data derived from the County Business Patterns (1947, 1959, and 1970) and U.S. Censuses (1950, 1960, and 1970) were used to measure: number of county jobs, number of plants, and average plant size (manufacturing indicators) and density, concentration, and number of residents working in services (urbanization indicators). It was concluded that submetropolitanization would characterize industrialization trends. (JC)

The 'rural' definitions applied by the Federal Government, especially by two data-gathering agencies, the Bureau of the Census and the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), emphasize different dimensions of the concept, and delineate the rural-urban continuum in different ways. This report discusses the inconsistency of curent "rural" definitions and its impact on research data collection and health policy formation. The Census Bureau's urban-rural definitions rely on settlement size and density, while the OMB's "metropolitan statistical area" (MSA) designation more closely follows county lines. Different designations also may be used by the same program, notably for purposes of hospital classification and reimbursement under federal health programs. Some have called for the development of a standard rural typology that would capture elements of rural diversity while improving the use and comparison of nationally collected data. But a standard typology would be difficult to create, because different typologies serve different purposes. Typologies usually are based on population size and density, urbanization, relationship to an MSA, and principal economic activity. The paper concludes that better measures of population concentration would be helpful to distinguish between urban and rural areas within the same counties. (TES)

This report focuses on the increasingly widespread concern over the ability of local government to exert sufficient leverage on population, economic, and spatial growth to make a difference in what happens and to do so in a way so as to effect agreed-upon public policies. Concern over the ability of local governments to manage urban growth and change is important for two reasons--for the rapidly growing concern over growth and subsequent costs, and for concern over the ability of local government institutions to actually function effectively in an area where they are usually held responsible. Two issues are addressed in this report. The first is the extent to which the collection of local governments in a metropolitan area is able to manage urban development. The site for the investigation and the principal source of data and observation is the San Jose Metropolitan Statistical Area--Santa Clara County, California. The second issue is the extent to which a single municipality within the metropolitan area can exert management control over development within and at its boundaries. This report is intended as a means for developing testable hypotheses about relationships among key variables determining the ability of local governments in a metropolitan area to affect, in a significant way, urban growth and change. (Author/JM)

The inconsistency in research investigations of the process of white flight is especially evident when social scientists become actors in the legal drama surrounding the desegregation of public schools. Social science "experts" for the contending litigants often present contradictory evidence. The resultant ambiguity allows judges and administrators to dismiss the utility of social science and rely on their own intuition of the social process. It is suggested that many of the empirical ambiguities concerning the causes and magnitude of white flight stem from the narrow policy focus of most recent research. By failing to place the process of white flight in a general theory of urban demographic change, researchers become susceptible to conclusions that encourage a simplistic misidentification of a complex set of behaviors. Extensive reliance on aggregate measures of net change has increased the likelihood of misidentification. The advantages and shortcomings of several methods that permit a richer analysis of trends and determinants of deviations from trends are illustrated by utilizing longitudinal and cross sectional data from American cities. A policy research agenda is suggested, in the hope that a broader perspective will be adopted in future studies of the redistribution of metropolitan population, especially with regard to the role played by desegregation actions. (Author/GC)

Despite the popularity of teacher leadership since the 1980s, little research examines its effects on student achievement. In this paper, I assess the influence of the New York City Department of Education's Teacher Career Pathways program, a teacher leadership initiative, on student achievement in grades three through eight. Using difference-in-difference approaches, including new event study estimators, I find that where school leaders staffed teacher leaders into formal roles with defined responsibilities, positional authority, and commensurate salary increases, student achievement in ELA and math improves. Moreover, the improvement in scores compounds over time, with schools exhibiting increasing gains in each year following the initial introduction of teacher leaders. Schools that do not staff teacher leaders do not observe similar outcomes. I consider these results in the context of democratic policymaking and teacher empowerment, suggesting that teachers must be formally empowered in schools to lead meaningful changes that ultimately improve student achievement.

An important element in considering school finance policies is that households are not passive but instead respond to policies. Household behavior is especially important in considering how households affect the spatial structure of metropolitan areas where different jurisdictions incorporate bundles of advantages and disadvantages. This paper adds richness to existing urban models by incorporating multiple workplace locations, alternative public services by jurisdiction (school qualities), and voter- determined school expenditure. In our general equilibrium model of residential location and community choice, households base optimizing decisions on commuting costs, school quality, and land rents. The resulting equilibrium has heterogeneous communities in terms of income and tastes for schools. This basic model is used to analyze a series of conventional policy experiments, including school district consolidation and district power utilization. The important conclusion within our range of simulations is that welfare falls for all families with the restrictions on choice that are implied by these approaches.