1. Making sense of palaeoclimate sensitivity
- Author
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Rohling, E. J., Sluijs, A., Dijkstra, H. A., Köhler, P., van de Wal, R. S. W., von der Heydt, A. S., Beerling, D. J., Berger, A., Bijl, P. K., Crucifix, M., DeConto, R., Drijfhout, S. S., Fedorov, A., Foster, G. L., Ganopolski, A., Hansen, J., Hönisch, B., Hooghiemstra, H., Huber, M., Huybers, P., Knutti, R., Lea, D. W., Lourens, L. J., Lunt, D., Masson-Demotte, V., Medina-Elizalde, M., Otto-Bliesner, B., Pagani, M., Pälike, H., Renssen, H., Royer, D. L., Siddall, M., Valdes, P., Zachos, J. C., Zeebe, R. E., Marine Biogeology, Earth and Climate, Amsterdam Global Change Institute, Paleoecology and Landscape Ecology (IBED, FNWI), University of Southampton, Research School of Earth Sciences [Canberra] (RSES), Australian National University (ANU), Department of Earth Sciences - Geochemistry [Utrecht], Utrecht University [Utrecht], Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research [Utrecht] (IMAU), Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung (AWI), Department of Animal and Plant Sciences [Sheffield], University of Sheffield [Sheffield], Centre Georges Lemaître for Earth and Climate Research [Louvain] (TECLIM), Earth and Life Institute [Louvain-La-Neuve] (ELI), Université Catholique de Louvain = Catholic University of Louvain (UCL)-Université Catholique de Louvain = Catholic University of Louvain (UCL), University of Massachusetts [Amherst] (UMass Amherst), University of Massachusetts System (UMASS), Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Department of Geology and Geophysics [New Haven], Yale University [New Haven], Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (LDEO), Columbia University [New York], Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics (IBED), University of Amsterdam [Amsterdam] (UvA), Indiana University - Purdue University Indianapolis (IUPUI), Indiana University System, Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences [Cambridge, USA] (EPS), Harvard University [Cambridge], Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science [Zürich] (IAC), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich] (ETH Zürich), Department of Earth Science [Santa Barbara), University of California [Santa Barbara] (UCSB), University of California-University of California, School of Geographical Sciences [Bristol], University of Bristol [Bristol], Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Glaces et Continents, Climats et Isotopes Stables (GLACCIOS), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Centro de Investigacion Cientifica de Yucatan (CICY), National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder] (NCAR), Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences [Amsterdam] (FALW), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam [Amsterdam] (VU), Wesleyan University, University of the West of England [Bristol] (UWE Bristol), Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences [Santa Cruz], University of California [Santa Cruz] (UCSC), School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology (SOEST), University of Hawai‘i [Mānoa] (UHM), PALAEOSENS Project Members, European Project: 259627,ERC,ERC-2010-StG_20091028,DINOPRO(2010), European Project: 0902882(2009), European Project: 243908,EC:FP7:ENV,FP7-ENV-2009-1,PAST4FUTURE(2010), UCL - SST/ELI/ELIC - Earth & Climate, Harvard University, University of California [Santa Barbara] (UC Santa Barbara), University of California (UC)-University of California (UC), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and University of California [Santa Cruz] (UC Santa Cruz)
- Subjects
Time Factors ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,Meteorology ,Thermodynamic equilibrium ,[SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes ,Climate ,Climate change ,010502 geochemistry & geophysics ,Global Warming ,01 natural sciences ,Feedback ,Taverne ,Paleoclimatology ,SDG 13 - Climate Action ,Range (statistics) ,Glacial period ,Sensitivity (control systems) ,History, Ancient ,Probability ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,Multidisciplinary ,Temperature ,Reproducibility of Results ,Carbon Dioxide ,Models, Theoretical ,Radiative forcing ,Environmental Policy ,[SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology ,13. Climate action ,Climatology ,Calibration ,Environmental science ,Climate sensitivity - Abstract
Many palaeoclimate studies have quantified pre-anthropogenic climate change to calculate climate sensitivity (equilibrium temperature change in response to radiative forcing change), but a lack of consistent methodologies produces a wide range of estimates and hinders comparability of results. Here we present a stricter approach, to improve intercomparison of palaeoclimate sensitivity estimates in a manner compatible with equilibrium projections for future climate change. Over the past 65 million years, this reveals a climate sensitivity (in K W -1 m 2) of 0.3-1.9 or 0.6-1.3 at 95% or 68% probability, respectively. The latter implies a warming of 2.2-4.8 K per doubling of atmospheric CO 2, which agrees with IPCC estimates. © 2012 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.
- Published
- 2012