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In February 1963, a huge landslide (ca. 1,950,000 m3) blocked the Visočica River and, thus, formed Zavoj Lake. The primary objective of this research was to investigate the importance of snowmelt in relation to landslide occurrence and to define the critical climatic conditions that may trigger massive winter landslides. We used monthly precipitation and average monthly maximum temperature data from meteorological and precipitation stations in the Visočica River basin (Dojkinci) and in the immediate proximity of Lake Zavoj (Pirot, Dimitrovgrad and Topli Do) as data inputs to the Snow-Melt Landslide (SML) index. It considers the summed monthly precipitation for previous months that continuously have an average maximum temperature below 0 °C. According to this method, the event at Zavoj Lake stands out among all other precipitation and snowmelt values for the past 72 years. After applying the SML index, all stations showed values of >300 mm for February 1963, which we consider as the threshold value for potential landslides appearance. In addition to meteorological data, we applied the SML index to data from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) regional climate model outputs for the region from 2022 to 2100. As expected, climate change will have influenced the temperature values, especially during the winter. Conversely, the study area is experiencing drastic changes in land use caused by depopulation, leading to a reduced risk of winter landslides in the Visočica basin. We suggest that future climatic conditions in the area will make it more likely to experience extreme summer precipitation events, which might trigger large landslides. The SML method can be implemented for all landscapes that experience snowy winters, providing information in a timely manner so that local residents can react properly when the probability of landslide occurrence rises. The SML index, grounded in essential meteorological principles, provides a tailor-made, data-driven methodology applicable across varied geographical settings. Its utility extends to mitigating hydro-meteorological hazards on scales ranging from local to national scales, offering diverse and effective early warning solutions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this research, changes in annual and seasonal trends of mean temperatures were analyzed on the territory of the Rasina River basin (central Serbia). We used data from four meteorological stations during three periods: 1961-1989, 1990-2018, and 1979- 2013. The change detection analysis has been conceded using the Pettitt's test, von Neumann ratio test, Buishand's range test, and standard normal homogeneity (SNH) test, while the linear regression, Mann-Kendall, and Sen's slope tests have been applied for trend analysis. The results show that the change in summer temperatures occurred shortly after 1980. The analysis results showed that inhomogeneous structures are generally observed between 1976 and 1984, between 1997 and 1998, and in 2006. The trend of all the data on annual basis showed positive increasing trend. The analysis indicated that the average annual, winter, and summer temperatures show significant increasing trend both in the longer period (1961--2018) and in the second part of the period (1990--2018). In the first part of the period (1961--1989), autumn temperatures in Kruševac, summer and autumn temperatures in Blace, as well as winter and autumn temperatures in Goþ showed significant decreasing trend. The significant rising trend in the summer and winter months in the last 30 years may affect water availability and water demands in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The changes and oscillations in air temperature during the second half of the 20th and in the early 21st century, have become one of the major concerns of almost all scientific disciplines. Such changes are noticeable both at the local and global level. The objective of this paper is to point out that the changes of this climate element can also be detected at the local level. The research underlying this paper is, in terms of territory, limited to the Sokobanja basin in Eastern Serbia. The analysis relies on the data on air temperature for the period 1946-2012 taken from the Meteorological weather station located in Sokobanja. The obtained data were processed in line with the recommendations of the World Meteorological Organization. The evidenced statistically significant changes in air temperature were examined using the following statistical tests: Pettit test, Standard Normal Homogeneity test, Buishand range test, and von Neumann test. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]