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Introduction: Due to a lack of robust population denominators, Australia is unable to accurately monitor changes in the HIV epidemic for some populations. The ratio of HIV transmission relative to the number of people with HIV (an incidence prevalence ratio, or IPR) can measure such changes. The IPR is measured against an IPR benchmark derived from post‐HIV acquisition life expectancy, to indicate whether an HIV epidemic is shrinking or growing. Using IPRs and Australia‐specific IPR benchmarks, this study aims to describe the Australian HIV epidemic among three groups: men with HIV attributed to male‐to‐male sex, women with HIV and people with HIV attributed to injection drug use. Methods: Using mathematical modelling derived from HIV notifications, cohort and administrative data, IPRs were generated for each of the three groups. These IPRs were compared with IPR benchmarks derived from post‐HIV acquisition mortality estimates using abridged life tables for men, women and people who inject drugs. The IPR benchmark for men was applied to people with HIV attributed to male‐to‐male sex. Trends in the IPR over time were described for each reported population from 2015 to 2022. Results: Overall, the IPR fell by 80%, from 0.040 (range: 0.034−0.045) in 2015 to 0.008 (range: 0.003−0.013) in 2022 and fell below the benchmark (0.022) in 2020. Among people with HIV attributed to male‐to‐male sex, the IPR fell by 85%, from 0.041 (range: 0.034−0.047) in 2015 to 0.006 (range: 0.003−0.024) in 2022 and fell below the benchmark (0.022) in 2020. Among women with HIV, the IPR fell by 56%, from 0.032 (range: 0.026−0.039) in 2015 to 0.014 (range: 0.003−0.029) in 2022 and fell below the benchmark (0.022) in 2019. Among people with HIV attributed to injection drug use, the IPR fell by 61%, from 0.036 (range: 0.022−0.047) in 2015 to 0.014 (range: 0.002−0.057) in 2022 and fell below the benchmark (0.028) in 2019. Conclusions: Australian IPRs in all populations examined have dropped below the level required to sustain the HIV epidemic at current levels. By applying this method in other contexts, the changing scale of HIV epidemics may be better described for populations lacking robust population denominators. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: New South Wales (NSW) has one of the world's highest uptake rates of HIV pre‐exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). This uptake has been credited with sharp declines in HIV transmission, particularly among Australian‐born gay and bisexual men. Concerns have been raised around the potential for the emergence of tenofovir (TFV) and XTC (lamivudine/emtricitabine) resistance in settings of high PrEP use. Such an emergence could also increase treatment failure and associated clinical outcomes among people living with HIV (PLHIV). Despite low levels of nucleoside reverse‐transcriptase inhibitor (NRTI) resistance relating to PrEP use in clinical settings, there are few published studies describing the prevalence of NRTI resistance among people newly diagnosed with HIV in a setting of high PrEP use. Methods: Using HIV antiretroviral drug resistance data linked to NSW HIV notifications records of people diagnosed from 1 January 2015 to 31 December 2021 and with HIV attributed to male‐to‐male sex, we described trends in TFV and XTC resistance. Resistance was identified using the Stanford HIV Drug Resistance genotypic resistance interpretation system. To focus on transmitted drug resistance, resistance prevalence estimates were generated using sequences taken less than 3 months post‐HIV diagnosis. These estimates were stratified by timing of sequencing relative to the date of diagnosis, year of sequencing, birthplace, likely place of HIV acquisition, and stage of HIV at diagnosis. Results: Among 1119 diagnoses linked to HIV genomes sequenced less than 3 months following diagnosis, overall XTC resistance prevalence was 1.3%. Between 2015 and 2021, XTC resistance fluctuated between 0.5% to 2.9% and was 1.0% in 2021. No TFV resistance was found over the study period in any of the sequences analysed. Higher XTC resistance prevalence was observed among people with newly acquired HIV (evidence of HIV acquisition in the 12 months prior to diagnosis; 2.9%, p = 0.008). Conclusions: In this Australian setting, TFV and XTC resistance prevalence in new HIV diagnoses remained low. Our findings offer further evidence for the safe scale‐up of PrEP in high‐income settings, without jeopardizing the treatment of those living with HIV. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In Australia, a man cannot donate blood if he has had sex with another man within the past 3 months. However, this policy has been criticized as being discriminatory as it does not consider lower risk subgroups, and led to calls for modifications to the policy that more accurately distinguish risk among gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (GBM). Study Design and Methods: We used data from a nationally representative survey to estimate the proportion of GBM aged 18–74 years old who would be eligible to donate under current criteria and other scenarios. Results: Among the 5178 survey participants, 155 (3.0%) were classified as GBM based on survey responses, Among the GBM, 40.2% (95% CI 28.0%–53.7%) were eligible to donate based on current criteria, and 21.0% (95% CI 14.5%–29.5%) were ineligible due to the 3 months deferral alone. Eligibility among GBM, all men, and the population increased as criteria were removed. Under the new Australian plasma donation criteria, 73.6% (95% CI 64.4%–81.1%) of GBM, 68.4% (95% CI 65.5%–71.2%) of all men, and 60.8% (95% CI 58.8%–62.8%) of the full population were estimated to be eligible. Only 16.1% (95% CI 8.6%–28.1%) of GBM knew that the male‐to‐male sex deferral period is 3 months. Discussion: Changing the deferral criteria and sexual risk evaluation would lead to a higher proportion of GBM being eligible to donate blood. Knowledge of the current GBM deferral period is very low. Improved education about the current criteria and any future changes are required to improve blood donation rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Australia has set the goal for the virtual elimination of HIV transmission by the end of 2022, yet accurate information is lacking on the level of HIV transmission occurring among residents. We developed a method for estimating the timing of HIV acquisition among migrants, relative to their arrival in Australia. We then applied this method to surveillance data from the Australian National HIV Registry with the aim of ascertaining the level of HIV transmission among migrants to Australia occurring before and after migration, and to inform appropriate local public health interventions. Methods: We developed an algorithm incorporating CD4+ T‐cell decline back‐projection and enhanced variables (clinical presentation, past HIV testing history and clinician estimate of the place of HIV acquisition) and compared it to a standard algorithm which uses CD4+ T‐cell back‐projection only. We applied both algorithms to all new HIV diagnoses among migrants to estimate whether HIV infection occurred before or after arrival in Australia. Results: Between 1 January 2016 and 31 December 2020, 1909 migrants were newly diagnosed with HIV in Australia, 85% were men, and the median age was 33 years. Using the enhanced algorithm, 932 (49%) were estimated to have acquired HIV after arrival in Australia, 629 (33%) before arrival (from overseas), 250 (13%) close to arrival and 98 (5%) were unable to be classified. Using the standard algorithm, 622 (33%) were estimated to have acquired HIV in Australia, 472 (25%) before arrival, 321 (17%) close to arrival and 494 (26%) were unable to be classified. Conclusions: Using our algorithm, close to half of migrants diagnosed with HIV were estimated to have acquired HIV after arrival in Australia, highlighting the need for tailored culturally appropriate testing and prevention programmes to limit HIV transmission and achieve elimination targets. Our method reduced the proportion of HIV cases unable to be classified and can be adopted in other countries with similar HIV surveillance protocols, to inform epidemiology and elimination efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ability to treat gonorrhoea with current first-line drugs is threatened by the global spread of extensively drug resistant (XDR) Neisseria gonorrhoeae (NG) strains. In Australia, urban transmission is high among men who have sex with men (MSM) and importation of an XDR NG strain in this population could result in an epidemic that would be difficult and costly to control. An individual-based, anatomical site-specific mathematical model of NG transmission among Australian MSM was developed and used to evaluate the potential for elimination of an imported NG strain under a range of case-based and population-based test-and-treat strategies. When initiated upon detection of the imported strain, these strategies enhance the probability of elimination and reduce the outbreak size compared with current practice (current testing levels and no contact tracing). The most effective strategies combine testing targeted at regular and casual partners with increased rates of population testing. However, even with the most effective strategies, outbreaks can persist for up to 2 years post-detection. Our simulations suggest that local elimination of imported NG strains can be achieved with high probability using combined case-based and population-based test-and-treat strategies. These strategies may be an effective means of preserving current treatments in the event of wider XDR NG emergence. Author summary: In most high-income settings, gonorrhoea is endemic among men who have sex with men (MSM). While gonorrhoea remains readily treatable with antibiotics, there are major concerns about the threat of antimicrobial resistance arising from recent reports of treatment failure with first-line therapy and limited remaining treatment options. Here we investigated the potential for test-and-treat response strategies to eliminate such strains before their prevalence reaches a level requiring a shift to new first line therapies. Rather than directly consider resistance, we explore the mitigating effect of various test-and-treat measures on outbreaks of a generic imported strain which remains treatable. This is done within the framework of a realistic mathematical model of gonorrhoea spread in an MSM community that captures cases, anatomical sites of infection and sexual contacts at an individual level, calibrated to relevant Australian epidemiological data. The results indicate that strategies such as partner testing and treatment in combination with elevated asymptomatic community testing are highly effective in mitigating outbreaks but can take up to 2 years to achieve elimination. As there are currently no clear alternative drugs of proven efficacy and safety to replace ceftriaxone in first-line therapy, these promising results suggest potential for use of these outbreak response strategies to preserve current treatment recommendations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The aim of the article was to investigate recent trends in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) diagnosis rates among men who have sex with men (MSM) in high-income countries in North America, Western Europe, and Australia.Methods: Data on annual rates of HIV diagnoses among MSM aged 15 to 65 years from 2000 to 2014 were collected from 13 high-income countries. Joinpoint regression software was used to empirically determine country-specific trend periods. Trends in HIV diagnosis rates and in the proportion of diagnoses occurring in young MSM aged 15 to 24 years were analyzed using Poisson regression and log-binomial regression, respectively.Results: Six countries experienced an increasing trend from 2000 to 2007-08 followed by either a stable or declining trend through 2014. Five countries had recently increasing trends, and two countries had one stable trend from 2000 to 2014. All 13 countries experienced increases in the proportion of diagnoses occurring in young MSM.Conclusions: Since 2008, half of the 13 high-income countries examined experienced stable or decreasing trends. Still, some countries continue to experience increasing HIV trends, and young MSM are increasingly represented among new diagnoses. Efforts to support early sexual health promotion, reduce barriers to pre-exposure prophylaxis, and improve care engagement for young MSM are critical to addressing current HIV trends. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]