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The largest floating tongue of Greenland's ice sheet, Nioghalvfjerdsbræ, has been relatively stable with respect to areal retreat until 2022. Draining more than 6 % of the ice sheet, a disintegration of Nioghalvfjerdsbræ's floating tongue and subsequent acceleration due to loss in buttressing are likely to lead to sea level rise. Therefore, the stability of the floating tongue is a focus of this study. We employed a suite of observational methods to detect recent changes at the calving front. We found that the calving style has changed since 2016 at the southern part of the eastern calving front, from tongue-type calving to a crack evolution initiated at frontal ice rises reaching 5–7 km and progressing further upstream compared to 2010. The calving front area is further weakened by an area upstream of the main calving front that consists of open water and an ice mélange that has substantially expanded, leading to the formation of a narrow ice bridge. These geometric and mechanical changes may be a precursor of instability of the floating tongue. We complement our study by numerical ice flow simulations to estimate the impact of future ice-front retreat and complete ice shelf disintegration on the discharge of grounded ice. These idealized scenarios reveal that a loss of the south-eastern area of the ice shelf would lead to a 0.2 % increase in ice discharge at the grounding line, while a sudden collapse of the frontal area (46 % of the floating tongue area) will enhance the ice discharge by 5.1 % due to loss in buttressing. Eventually, a full collapse of the floating tongue increases the grounding line flux by 166 %. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We use satellite and airborne altimetry to estimate annual mass changes of the Greenland Ice Sheet. We estimate ice loss corresponding to a sea‐level rise of 6.9 ± 0.4 mm from April 2011 to April 2020, with a highest annual ice loss rate of 1.4 mm/yr sea‐level equivalent from April 2019 to April 2020. On a regional scale, our annual mass loss timeseries reveals 10–15 m/yr dynamic thickening at the terminus of Jakobshavn Isbræ from April 2016 to April 2018, followed by a return to dynamic thinning. We observe contrasting patterns of mass loss acceleration in different basins across the ice sheet and suggest that these spatiotemporal trends could be useful for calibrating and validating prognostic ice sheet models. In addition to resolving the spatial and temporal fingerprint of Greenland's recent ice loss, these mass loss grids are key for partitioning contemporary elastic vertical land motion from longer‐term glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) trends at GPS stations around the ice sheet. Our ice‐loss product results in a significantly different GIA interpretation from a previous ice‐loss product. Plain Language Summary: Greenland ice loss has accelerated over the last three decades. The Greenland Ice Sheet is currently one of the largest contributors to global sea‐level rise. We combine airborne and satellite altimetry measurements to make annual digital elevation models of the ice sheet during 2011–2020. Over this period, we find that the ice sheet lost an ice volume corresponding to 6.9 ± 0.4 mm of global sea‐level equivalent. The peak loss year was April 2019 to April 2020, when the ice sheet lost 1.4 mm of global sea‐level equivalent. This peak loss rate is equivalent to losing 15,850 tonnes of ice per second for 12 months. We also find that the acceleration of ice loss differs across different ice‐sheet sectors. We suggest that these regional ice loss trends may be a good target for the ice‐sheet models used to project future ice loss. Key Points: The Greenland Ice Sheet contributed 6.9 ± 0.4 mm to sea‐level from April 2011 to April 2020Satellite altimetry suggests a peak annual ice loss of 498 ± 45 Gt from April 2019 to April 2020The terminus of Jakobshavn Isbræ is once again dynamically thinning, following a period of dynamic thickening during 2016–2018 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Greenland glaciers exhibit variable seasonal velocity signals that may reflect differences in subglacial hydrology. Here, we conduct a first GrIS-wide glacier classification based on seasonal velocity patterns derived from 2017 Sentinel-1 radar data. Our classification focuses on two distinct seasonal ice velocity patterns, with the first (type-2 from Moon and others, 2014) showing periods of both speedup and slowdown during the melt season, and the second (type-3) instead showing a longer period of slowdown from elevated velocities in the winter and spring. We analyze 221 glaciers in 2017 and show that 48 exhibit type-2 behavior, and 72 exhibit type-3 behavior. We extend the classification to 2018 and 2019 and find that while the glaciers meeting each criterion vary year to year, type-2 is consistently more common in the northern regions and type-3 is more common in the south. Our results highlight the varied impact of meltwater on subglacial drainage systems and glacier flow in Greenland. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present a novel method to estimate dynamic ice loss of Greenland's three largest outlet glaciers: Jakobshavn Isbræ, Kangerlussuaq Glacier, and Helheim Glacier. We use Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) stations attached to bedrock to measure elastic displacements of the solid Earth caused by dynamic thinning near the glacier terminus. When we compare our results with discharge, we find a time lag between glacier speedup/slowdown and onset of dynamic thinning/thickening. Our results show that dynamic thinning/thickening on Jakobshavn Isbræ occurs 0.87 ± 0.07 years before speedup/slowdown. This implies that using GNSS time series we are able to predict speedup/slowdown of Jakobshavn Isbræ by up to 10.4 months. For Kangerlussuaq Glacier the lag between thinning/thickening and speedup/slowdown is 0.37 ± 0.17 years (4.4 months). Our methodology and results could be important for studies that attempt to model and understand mechanisms controlling short‐term dynamic fluctuations of outlet glaciers in Greenland. Plain Language Summary: A wide range of sensors and methods have been used to study the changes of the Greenland Ice Sheet, including satellite gravimetry, altimetry, and the input‐output method. Here, we present a novel fourth method to estimate dynamic ice loss of Greenland's three largest outlet glaciers: Jakobshavn Isbræ, Kangerlussuaq Glacier, and Helheim Glacier. We use Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) stations attached to bedrock to measure rise of land masses caused by ongoing ice mass loss near the glacier terminus. When we compare our results with ice discharge, we find a time lag between glacier speedup/slowdown and onset of dynamic induced thinning/thickening. Our results show that dynamic thinning/thickening on Jakobshavn Isbræ occurs 0.87 ± 0.07 years before speedup/slowdown. This implies that using GNSS uplift time series we are able to predict ice flow speedup/slowdown of Jakobshavn Isbræ by up to 10 months. For Kangerlussuaq Glacier and Helheim Glacier the lag between thinning/thickening and speedup/slowdown is 0.37 ± 0.17 years (4.4 months) and 0.03 ± 0.16 years, respectively. Our methodology and results could be important for studies that attempt to model and understand mechanisms controlling short‐term dynamic fluctuations of outlet glaciers in Greenland. Key Points: A novel method to estimate dynamic ice loss of Greenland's three largest outlet glaciers, Jakobshavn, Kangerlussuaq, and Helheim glacierDynamic thinning/thickening occurs 0.87 ± 0.07 years before speedup/slowdown at Jakobshavn IsbræA similar time lag between change in uplift rate and flow speed change allows us to predict future ice discharge from past uplift [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present a 1986 through March 2020 estimate of Greenland Ice Sheet ice discharge. Our data include all discharging ice that flows faster than 100 m yr -1 and are generated through an automatic and adaptable method, as opposed to conventional handpicked gates. We position gates near the present-year termini and estimate problematic bed topography (ice thickness) values where necessary. In addition to using annual time-varying ice thickness, our time series uses velocity maps that begin with sparse spatial and temporal coverage and end with near-complete spatial coverage and 12 d updates to velocity. The 2010 through 2019 average ice discharge through the flux gates is ∼487±49 Gt yr -1. The 10 % uncertainty stems primarily from uncertain ice bed location (ice thickness). We attribute the ∼50 Gt yr -1 differences among our results and previous studies to our use of updated bed topography from BedMachine v3. Discharge is approximately steady from 1986 to 2000, increases sharply from 2000 to 2005, and then is approximately steady again. However, regional and glacier variability is more pronounced, with recent decreases at most major glaciers and in all but one region offset by increases in the northwest region through 2017 and in the southeast from 2017 through March 2020. As part of the journal's living archive option and our goal to make an operational product, all input data, code, and results from this study will be updated as needed (when new input data are available, as new features are added, or to fix bugs) and made available at https://doi.org/10.22008/promice/data/ice%5fdischarge and at https://github.com/mankoff/ice%5fdischarge (last access: 6 June 2020,). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seasonal glacier ice velocities are important for understanding controlling mechanisms of ice flow. For many Greenlandic glaciers, however, these measurements are limited by low temporal resolution. We present seasonal ice velocity changes, melt season onset and extent, and ice front positions for 45 Greenlandic glaciers using 2015–2017 Sentinel‐1 synthetic aperture radar data. Seasonal velocity fluctuations of roughly half of the glaciers appear to be primarily controlled by surface melt‐induced changes in the subglacial hydrology. This includes (1) glaciers that speed up with the onset of surface melt and (2) glaciers with comparable late winter and early melt season velocities that show significant slowdown during most of the melt season and speedup during winter. In contrast, less than a quarter of the study glaciers show strong correspondence between seasonal ice speed and terminus changes. Our results pinpoint seasonal variations across Greenland, highlighting the variable influence of meltwater on year‐round ice velocities. Plain Language Summary: Many Greenlandic glaciers are marine‐terminating and seasonal fluctuations in the ice velocity influence ice discharge timing and magnitude. We used Sentinel‐1 satellite data to observe seasonal changes in ice velocities, ice front positions, and surface melt conditions for 45 Greenlandic glaciers during 2015–2017, capturing substantial temporal detail. Seasonal velocity variations of nearly half of the glaciers show the strongest correlation with surface melt changes, which seasonally alter the subglacial hydrology. In contrast, less than a quarter of the study glaciers show strong correspondence between seasonal ice velocities and seasonal advance and retreat of the glacier ice front. This study highlights the strong potential influence of surface meltwater on the ice velocities of many Greenlandic glaciers. Key Points: Sentinel‐1 radar data pinpoint seasonal ice velocity variations with high temporal detailsSurface melt‐induced changes in subglacial hydrology control seasonal ice flow of many glaciersSeasonal ice flow of ten of the sampled glaciers respond primarily to seasonal terminus changes [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present a 1986 through 2017 estimate of Greenland Ice Sheet ice discharge. Our data include all discharging ice that flows faster than 100 m yr−1 and are generated through an automatic and adaptable method, as opposed to conventional hand-picked gates. We position gates near the present-year termini and estimate problematic bed topography (ice thickness) values where necessary. In addition to using annual time-varying ice thickness, our time series uses velocity maps that begin with sparse spatial and temporal coverage and end with near-complete spatial coverage and 6 d updates to velocity. The 2010 through 2017 average ice discharge through the flux gates is ∼ 488 ± 48Gt yr−1. The 10 % uncertainty stems primarily from uncertain ice bed location (ice thickness). We attribute the ∼50 Gt yr−1 differences among our results and previous studies to our use of updated bed topography from BedMachine v3. Discharge is approximately steady from 1986 to 2000, increases sharply from 2000 to 2005, and then is approximately steady again. However, regional and glacier variability is more pronounced, with recent decreases at most major glaciers and in all but one region offset by increases in the NW (northwestern) region. As part of the journal's living archive option, all input data, code, and results from this study will be updated when new input data are accessible and made freely available at https://doi.org/10.22008/promice/data/ice_discharge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Greenland Ice Sheet is the largest land ice contributor to sea level rise. This will continue in the future but at an uncertain rate and observational estimates are limited to the last few decades. Understanding the long-term glacier response to external forcing is key to improving projections. Here we use historical photographs to calculate ice loss from 1880–2012 for Jakobshavn, Helheim, and Kangerlussuaq glacier. We estimate ice loss corresponding to a sea level rise of 8.1 ± 1.1 millimetres from these three glaciers. Projections of mass loss for these glaciers, using the worst-case scenario, Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5, suggest a sea level contribution of 9.1–14.9 mm by 2100. RCP8.5 implies an additional global temperature increase of 3.7 °C by 2100, approximately four times larger than that which has taken place since 1880. We infer that projections forced by RCP8.5 underestimate glacier mass loss which could exceed this worst-case scenario. The Greenland Ice Sheet is the largest land ice contributor to sea level rise and understanding the long-term glacier response to external forcing is key to improved projections. Here the authors show Greenland's three largest outlet glaciers will likely exceed current worst-case scenario [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the Northern Hemisphere, an insolation driven Early to Middle Holocene Thermal Maximum was followed by a Neoglacial cooling that culminated during the Little Ice Age (LIA). Here, we review the glacier response to this Neoglacial cooling in Greenland. Changes in the ice margins of outlet glaciers from the Greenland Ice Sheet as well as local glaciers and ice caps are synthesized Greenland-wide. In addition, we compare temperature reconstructions from ice cores, elevation changes of the ice sheet across Greenland and oceanographic reconstructions from marine sediment cores over the past 5,000 years. The data are derived from a comprehensive review of the literature supplemented with unpublished reports. Our review provides a synthesis of the sensitivity of the Greenland ice margins and their variability, which is critical to understanding how Neoglacial glacier activity was interrupted by the current anthropogenic warming. We have reconstructed three distinct periods of glacier expansion from our compilation: two older Neoglacial advances at 2,500 – 1,700 yrs. BP (Before Present = 1950 CE, Common Era) and 1,250 – 950 yrs. BP; followed by a general advance during the younger Neoglacial between 700-50 yrs. BP, which represents the LIA. There is still insufficient data to outline the detailed spatio-temporal relationships between these periods of glacier expansion. Many glaciers advanced early in the Neoglacial and persisted in close proximity to their present-day position until the end of the LIA. Thus, the LIA response to Northern Hemisphere cooling must be seen within the wider context of the entire Neoglacial period of the past 5,000 years. Ice expansion appears to be closely linked to changes in ice sheet elevation, accumulation, and temperature as well as surface-water cooling in the surrounding oceans. At least for the two youngest Neoglacial advances, volcanic forcing triggering a sea-ice /ocean feedback, could explain their initiation. There are probably several LIA glacier fluctuations since the first culmination close to 1250 CE (Common Era) and available data suggests ice culminations in the 1400s, early to mid-1700s and early to mid-1800s CE. The last LIA maxima lasted until the present deglaciation commenced around 50 yrs. BP (1900 CE). The constraints provided here on the timing and magnitude of LIA glacier fluctuations delivers a more realistic background validation for modelling future ice sheet stability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]