Search

Variation in hospital mortality has been described for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), but the factors that explain these differences remain unclear.Our objective was to utilize a large, nationally representative dataset of critically ill adults with COVID-19 to determine which factors explain mortality variability.In this multicenter cohort study, we examined adults hospitalized in intensive care units with COVID-19 at 70 United States hospitals between March and June 2020. The primary outcome was 28-day mortality. We examined patient-level and hospital-level variables. Mixed-effects logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with interhospital variation. The median odds ratio (OR) was calculated to compare outcomes in higher- vs. lower-mortality hospitals. A gradient boosted machine algorithm was developed for individual-level mortality models.A total of 4,019 patients were included, 1537 (38%) of whom died by 28 days. Mortality varied considerably across hospitals (0-82%). After adjustment for patient- and hospital-level domains, interhospital variation was attenuated (OR decline from 2.06 [95% CI, 1.73-2.37] to 1.22 [95% CI, 1.00-1.38]), with the greatest changes occurring with adjustment for acute physiology, socioeconomic status, and strain. For individual patients, the relative contribution of each domain to mortality risk was: acute physiology (49%), demographics and comorbidities (20%), socioeconomic status (12%), strain (9%), hospital quality (8%), and treatments (3%).There is considerable interhospital variation in mortality for critically ill patients with COVID-19, which is mostly explained by hospital-level socioeconomic status, strain, and acute physiologic differences. Individual mortality is driven mostly by patient-level factors. This article is open access and distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial No Derivatives License 4.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

Summary: Many US states published crisis standards of care (CSC) guidelines for allocating scarce critical care resources during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the performance of these guidelines in maximizing their population benefit has not been well tested. In 2,272 adults with COVID-19 requiring mechanical ventilation drawn from the Study of the Treatment and Outcomes in Critically Ill Patients with COVID-19 (STOP-COVID) multicenter cohort, we test the following three approaches to CSC algorithms: Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) scores grouped into ranges, SOFA score ranges plus comorbidities, and a hypothetical approach using raw SOFA scores not grouped into ranges. We find that area under receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curves for all three algorithms demonstrate only modest discrimination for 28-day mortality. Adding comorbidity scoring modestly improves algorithm performance over SOFA scores alone. The algorithm incorporating comorbidities has modestly worse predictive performance for Black compared to white patients. CSC algorithms should be empirically examined to refine approaches to the allocation of scarce resources during pandemics and to avoid potential exacerbation of racial inequities.

Rationale & Objective Underlying kidney disease is an emerging risk factor for more severe COVID-19 illness. We examined the clinical courses of critically ill COVID-19 patients with and without pre-existing kidney disease and investigated the association between degree of underlying kidney disease and in-hospital outcomes. Study Design Retrospective cohort study Settings & Participants 4,264 critically ill COVID-19 patients (143 dialysis patients, 521 chronic kidney disease [CKD] patients, and 3,600 patients without CKD) admitted to ICUs at 68 hospitals in the United States. Predictor(s) Presence (versus absence) of pre-existing kidney disease Outcome(s) In-hospital mortality (primary); respiratory failure, shock, ventricular arrhythmia/ cardiac arrest, thromboembolic event, major bleed, and acute liver injury (secondary) Analytical Approach We used standardized differences to compare patient characteristics (values >0.10 indicate a meaningful difference between groups) and multivariable adjusted Fine and Gray survival models to examine outcome associations. Results Dialysis patients had a shorter time from symptom onset to ICU admission compared to other groups (median [quartile 1-quartile 3] days: 4 [2-9] for dialysis patients; 7 [3-10] for CKD patients; 7 [4-10] for patients without pre-existing kidney disease). More dialysis patients (25%) reported altered mental status than those with CKD (20%, standardized difference = 0.12) and no kidney disease (12%, standardized difference = 0.36). Half of dialysis and CKD patients died within 28-days of ICU admission versus 35% of patients without pre-existing kidney disease. Compared to patients without pre-existing kidney disease, dialysis patients had a higher risk of 28-day in-hospital death (adjusted HR 1.41; 95% CI 1.09, 1.81), while patients with CKD had an intermediate risk (adjusted HR 1.25; 95% CI 1.08, 1.44). Limitations Potential residual confounding Conclusions Findings highlight the high mortality of individuals with underlying kidney disease and severe COVID-19, underscoring the importance of identifying safe and effective COVID-19 therapies for this vulnerable population., Individuals with underlying kidney disease may be particularly vulnerable to severe COVID-19 illness, marked by multi-system organ failure, thrombosis, and a heightened inflammatory response. Among 4,264 critically ill adults with COVID-19 admitted to 68 intensive care units across the U.S., we found that both chronic kidney disease and dialysis patients had a ∼50% 28-day in-hospital mortality rate. Patients with underlying kidney disease had higher in-hospital mortality than patients without kidney disease, with patients on maintenance dialysis having the highest risk. As evidenced by differences in symptoms and clinical trajectories, patients with pre-existing kidney disease may have unique susceptibility to COVID-19-related complications which warrants additional study and special consideration in the pursuit and development of targeted therapies.

Hypercoagulability may be a key mechanism of death in patients with COVID-19. This cohort study evaluated the incidence of venous thromboembolism and major bleeding in critically ill patients with COVID-19 and examined the observational effect of early therapeutic anticoagulation on survival., Visual Abstract. Early Anticoagulation in COVID-19 Hypercoagulability may be a key mechanism of death in patients with COVID-19. This cohort study evaluated the incidence of venous thromboembolism and major bleeding in critically ill patients with COVID-19 and examined the observational effect of early therapeutic anticoagulation on survival. Visual Abstract. Early Anticoagulation in COVID-19 Hypercoagulability may be a key mechanism of death in patients with COVID-19. This cohort study evaluated the incidence of venous thromboembolism and major bleeding in critically ill patients with COVID-19 and examined the observational effect of early therapeutic anticoagulation on survival., Background: Hypercoagulability may be a key mechanism of death in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Objective: To evaluate the incidence of venous thromboembolism (VTE) and major bleeding in critically ill patients with COVID-19 and examine the observational effect of early therapeutic anticoagulation on survival. Design: In a multicenter cohort study of 3239 critically ill adults with COVID-19, the incidence of VTE and major bleeding within 14 days after intensive care unit (ICU) admission was evaluated. A target trial emulation in which patients were categorized according to receipt or no receipt of therapeutic anticoagulation in the first 2 days of ICU admission was done to examine the observational effect of early therapeutic anticoagulation on survival. A Cox model with inverse probability weighting to adjust for confounding was used. Setting: 67 hospitals in the United States. Participants: Adults with COVID-19 admitted to a participating ICU. Measurements: Time to death, censored at hospital discharge, or date of last follow-up. Results: Among the 3239 patients included, the median age was 61 years (interquartile range, 53 to 71 years), and 2088 (64.5%) were men. A total of 204 patients (6.3%) developed VTE, and 90 patients (2.8%) developed a major bleeding event. Independent predictors of VTE were male sex and higher D-dimer level on ICU admission. Among the 2809 patients included in the target trial emulation, 384 (11.9%) received early therapeutic anticoagulation. In the primary analysis, during a median follow-up of 27 days, patients who received early therapeutic anticoagulation had a similar risk for death as those who did not (hazard ratio, 1.12 [95% CI, 0.92 to 1.35]). Limitation: Observational design. Conclusion: Among critically ill adults with COVID-19, early therapeutic anticoagulation did not affect survival in the target trial emulation. Primary Funding Source: None.

Chronic alcohol consumption is known to increase the susceptibility to acute and chronic pancreatitis, and it is likely that a cofactor is required to initiate the progression to alcoholic pancreatitis. The severity and complications of alcoholic and nonalcoholic acute pancreatitis may be influenced by a number of cofactors, including endotoxemia. To explore the effect of a possible cofactor, we used endotoxin [lipopolysaccharide (LPS)] as a tool to induce cellular injury in the alcoholic pancreas. Single, increasing doses of endotoxin were injected in rats fed an alcohol or control diet and killed 24 h after the injection. We examined the mechanism by which LPS exacerbates pancreatic injury in alcohol-fed rats and whether the injury is associated with apoptosis or necrosis. We showed that chronic alcohol exposure alone inhibits apoptosis through the intrinsic pathway and the downstream apoptosis executor caspase-3 compared with the controls. Pancreatic necrosis and inflammation increased after LPS injection in control and alcohol-fed rats in a dose-dependent fashion but with a significantly greater response in the alcohol-fed animals. Caspase activities and TdT-mediated dUTP nick-end labeling positivity were lower in the alcoholic pancreas injected with LPS, whereas the histopathology and inflammation were more severe compared with the control-fed animals. Assessment of a putative indicator of necrosis, the ratio of ADP to ATP, indicated that alcohol exposure accelerates pancreatic necrosis in response to endotoxin. These findings suggest that the pancreas exposed to alcohol is more sensitive to LPS-induced damage because of increased sensitivity to necrotic cell death rather than apoptotic cell death. Similar to the liver, the pancreas is capable of responding to LPS with a more severe response in alcohol-fed animals, favoring pancreatic necrosis rather than apoptosis. We speculate that this mechanism may occur in acute alcoholic pancreatitis patients.

Alcohol consumption is a risk factor for chronic pancreatitis (CP), but the mechanism in humans remains obscure because prolonged alcohol consumption in most humans and animal models fails to produce alcoholic chronic pancreatitis (ACP). We hypothesize that the process leading to ACP is triggered by a sentinel acute pancreatitis (AP) event; this event causes recruitment of inflammatory cells, which initiates fibrosis driven by the anti-inflammatory response to recurrent AP and/or chronic oxidative stress. The aim was to determine whether chronic alcohol consumption accelerates fibrosis in response to cerulein-induced pancreatitis in the rat. Wistar male rats were pair-fed control (C) or 5% ethanol (E) Lieber-DeCarli liquid diets. Animals were studied without pancreatitis (P0), with cerulein pancreatitis induced once (P1), or with cerulein-induced pancreatitis weekly for 3 weeks (P3). AP markers, inflammation, and fibrosis were measured histologically, by gene expression profiling and protein expression. Macrophage infiltration was reduced in EP0 versus CP0 rats, but the pattern was reversed after AP. Microabscess, severe necrosis, and early calcification were only induced in the EP3 rats. Fibrosis was significantly induced in the EP3 rats versus EP1, CP1, and CP3 by histology, hydroxyproline content, and mRNA expression for collagen alpha1(1) and procollagen alpha2(1). Proinflammatory cytokine mRNAs were up-regulated shortly after induction of AP, while the anti-inflammatory cytokines (interleukin-10 and transforming growth factor-beta) were strongly up-regulated later and in parallel with fibrogenesis, especially in the EP3 rats. Pancreatic fibrosis develops after repeated episodes of AP and is potentiated by alcohol. Expression of fibrosis-associated genes was associated with expression of anti-inflammatory cytokines in alcohol-fed rats.

Peptide YY (PYY) inhibits CCK-8-secretin-stimulated pancreatic secretion in vivo. To investigate whether CCK-8-secretin-stimulated pancreatic secretion is mediated through a vago-vagal pathway and whether PYY inhibits this pathway through the area postrema (AP), chronic pancreatic, biliary, and duodenal catheters were implanted in AP-lesioned (APX) or sham-operated rats. The effects of APX on pancreatic secretion stimulated by bethanechol, pancreatic juice diversion (PJD), or CCK-8-secretin, were tested, with and without background PYY infusion, in unanesthetized rats. APX reduced basal pancreatic secretion by 15–20% ( P < 0.01). APX had no effect on bethanechol-stimulated secretion and potentiated protein secretion stimulated by PJD (396 vs. 284%) and exogenous CCK-8-secretin. In sham-operated rats, background PYY potently inhibited CCK-8-secretin-stimulated pancreatic fluid (1.8 vs. 48.2%) and protein secretion (3.7 vs. 45.8%) but potentiated fluid (52.9 vs. 43.1%) and protein (132.9 vs. 68.9%) secretion in APX rats. Our findings demonstrate that PYY inhibits CCK-8-secretin-stimulated pancreatic secretion through an AP-dependent mechanism in sham-operated rats. The AP also contributes to basal pancreatic secretion.

Circulating PP binds to specific receptors in the DVC through the AP, but the mechanism through which these brain receptors affect pancreatic secretion is not clear. We hypothesize that the removal of the AP (APX) will alter the effects of PP on pancreatic secretion. APX or sham procedures were performed in anesthetized male Wistar rats. After a 1-month recovery, one group of rats were infused with either PP (30 or 100 pmol/kg per h) or vehicle under basal or 2-DG-stimulated (75 mg/kg, i.v. bolus) conditions for studying pancreatic exocrine secretion. A second parallel group was sacrificed for examination of PP receptor binding in the brain stem. A third group received an intraperitoneal injection of PP at the dose of 4.15x10(4) pmol/kg (200 microg/kg) and c-fos expression in the brain stem was examined. APX eliminated PP binding sites in the DVC as assessed by autoradiography. PP infusion caused a dose-dependent decrease in basal protein secretion. APX partially reversed PP inhibition of basal protein secretion when infused at 30 pmol/kg per h, and at 100 pmol/kg per h stimulated pancreatic fluid secretion and reversed the inhibition of protein secretion. During 2-DG stimulation the effects of PP and 2-DG on pancreatic fluid and protein secretion were parallel. PP dose-dependently inhibited 2-DG-stimulated secretion in sham rats. APX reduced the pancreatic fluid (54%) and protein (46%) secretory response to 2-DG. However, PP at 30 pmol/kg per h remained a potent inhibitor of 2-DG-stimulated pancreatic secretion in APX rats. This effect was blunted with PP at 100 pmol/kg per h in APX rats, possibly related to the stimulatory effect of high-dose PP in APX rats without 2-DG. Furthermore, i.p. PP induced significantly greater c-fos activation of NTS neurons in APX rats than sham rats, despite the apparent absence of PP binding sites in the DVC. We conclude that in awake rats, PP inhibits basal secretion, in part, through the AP. Furthermore, and unlike PYY, PP inhibits 2-DG-stimulated pancreatic secretion, and it does so through an AP-independent mechanism. The possibility that the mechanism may involve the DVC cannot be excluded since i.p. injection of PP activates c-fos expression in DVC neurons. Thus, PP and PYY may regulate different components of the pancreatic secretory control system through unique pathways.

Previously we demonstrated that circulating peptide YY (PYY), which inhibits pancreatic exocrine secretion, binds to specific receptors in the area postrema (AP); therefore we have tested the hypothesis that the removal of the AP (APX) will alter the effects of PYY on pancreatic secretion in awake rats. One-month after AP lesion or sham lesion, rats were implanted with pancreatic, biliary, duodenal, and intravenous catheters. After recovery from the surgery, unanesthetized rats were infused with vehicle or PYY (30 pmol/kg/hr or 100 pmol/kg/hr) under basal or 2-deoxy-D-glucose (2-DG) stimulated (75 mg/kg, intravenous bolus) conditions. PYY at 30 pmol/kg/hr inhibited basal pancreatic fluid secretion in sham-operated rats, but not APX rats. PYY at 100 pmol/kg/hr stimulated basal pancreatic protein secretion in sham-operated rats, and this effect was also lost in APX rats. PYY at 30 and 100 pmol/kg/hr inhibited peak 2-DG stimulated protein secretion to a greater extent in APX rats as compared to sham-operated rats (P < 0.05). Since PYY inhibition of basal pancreatic secretion is AP dependent and inhibition of 2-DG stimulated pancreatic secretion is AP independent, we conclude that the 2-DG pathway of pancreatic secretion differs from the pathway responsible for basal secretion, and that APX potentiates the inhibitory effect of PYY on the 2-DG pathway.

Pancreatic polypeptide (PP) is a 36-amino-acid regulatory peptide with close structural similarities to peptide YY (PYY) and neuropeptide Y (NPY). PP is found in high concentrations in a subset of pancreatic islet cells and is released during a meal at rates proportionate to vagal activity. The action of PP is primarily inhibitory and directed toward organs innervated by the vagus, suggesting a major role in feedback regulation of foregut function. A primary site of action is the dorsal vagal complex, where PP crosses the blood–brain barrier and binds to Y4 receptors to directly modulate neurons involved in central regulation of visceral function. PP binding sites and Y4 receptors are also distributed in the stomach, intestine, liver, adrenal gland, sympathetic nerves, selected brain nuclei, and testis. The possibility of PP receptors other than Y4 has not been excluded. PP appears to modulate digestion, metabolism, weight, and reproduction, although mechanisms that are complex, incompletely understood, and probably different among the species studied.

Chronic alcohol ingestion appears to increase susceptibility of the pancreas to pancreatitis through multiple mechanisms. The aim of the current study was to determine the effect of chronic low- and high-dose alcohol consumption on the neurohormonal control of the exocrine pancreas in rats. Male Wistar rats were fed Lieber DeCarli liquid control-, low-, and high-dose alcohol diets for 3 months. Pancreatic exocrine secretion was measured under basal and 2-deoxy-d-glucose (2-DG)-, CCK-, bethanechol-, or meal-stimulated conditions while on chronic alcohol diets and after 2-DG or CCK stimulation during alcohol withdrawal in awake rats. Chronic alcohol ingestion was associated with a dose-related inhibition of basal pancreatic protein secretion, which was reversed upon alcohol withdrawal. Low-dose alcohol feeding had no effect on bethanechol-stimulated pancreatic secretion but altered 2-DG-stimulated pancreatic secretion. In chronic high-dose alcohol rats, meal- and bethanechol-stimulated protein secretion was significantly potentiated during early and late phases. The response to CCK appeared to be disinhibited, whereas the response to 2-DG was uniformly blunted. Upon withdrawal of low-dose alcohol, the response to 2-DG was potentiated, whereas with the withdrawal of high-dose alcohol, the response to CCK was potentiated. Adaptation to chronic alcohol consumption differs depending on the alcohol dose. The most significant effects were seen after high-dose alcohol withdrawal, with apparent loss of central inhibitory regulation combined with exaggerated response at the acinar cell level. This combination of factors could increase susceptibility to acute alcoholic pancreatitis through a hyperstimulation mechanism.

Chronic alcohol consumption increases the risk of pancreatitis in humans. Functional hyperstimulation/hypersecretion of the pancreas during chronic alcohol consumption appears to precede the onset of pancreatitis, and may contribute to the increased susceptibility to pancreatitis in alcoholics. However, the origin, nature and timing of hyperstimulation/hypersecretion are unknown.Male Wistar rats were pair-fed ethanol liquid diet for 15-18 days (including one 9-day dose ramp-up phase) or regular liquid diets before placement of pancreatic, biliary, duodenal and venous catheters. Basal and stimulated pancreatic secretions were measured with or without acute alcohol infusion. Pancreatic secretion was stimulated with intravenous bethanechol, 2-deoxy-D-glucose (2-DG), cholecystokinin (CCK), octapeptide (CCK-8), intraduodenal meal, or vehicle.Acute alcohol potentiated 2-DG stimulated pancreatic secretion (184%, p0.05), whereas the response to CCK was unchanged, and the response to bethanechol was decreased (78%, p0.05). Short-term alcohol exposure lessened the exaggerated protein secretory response to 2-DG seen in acute alcohol exposure rats and increased the protein response to bethanechol (141%, p0.05), CCK (187%, p0.05) and meal (217%, p0.05).The pancreas is sensitive to acute alcohol ingestion with inhibition of acinar cell function. Rapid adaptation occurs with short-term alcohol feeding, resulting in an exaggerated response to cholinergic input at the acinar cells, plus disinhibition of CCK and meal-stimulated pancreatic secretion. The central response to 2-DG and CCK are similar to area postrema lesions. Adaptation appears to be in response to alcohol-associated inhibition of the neurohormonal stimulatory pathway and compensatory upregulation at the acinar cell level.

The primary factors that predispose humans to the development of alcoholic pancreatitis are unknown. One of the earliest observations in humans in whom this disease develops is pancreatic hypersecretion caused by unknown mechanisms. Messenger RNA (mRNA) differential display was performed in a rat model to investigate the molecular mechanisms associated with ethanol-induced pancreatic hypersecretion. Male Wistar rats were pair-fed Lieber-DeCarli diets with or without ethanol for 7 days or 4 weeks. Total RNA was extracted from the pancreas and its neurohormonal control sites. Differentially expressed complementary DNA (cDNA) tags were isolated, cloned, and sequenced. One 248-bp cDNA was consistently and strongly induced in the pancreata of rats fed ethanol for 4 weeks. The sequence was highly homologous to both rat pancreatic monitor peptide (MP) and pancreatic secretory trypsin inhibitor (PSTI-56), also known as serine protease inhibitor, Kazal type 1 (SPINK1). Confirmatory reverse-transcription-polymerase chain reaction showed that PSTI-56 expression remained unchanged, whereas MP mRNA levels were elevated more than four times in the pancreata of ethanol-fed rats. These results indicate that long-term ethanol ingestion increases MP mRNA levels in the rat pancreas. Because MP stimulates cholecystokinin release and cholecystokinin is an important stimulant of pancreatic secretion, the enhanced MP gene expression may contribute to pancreatic hypersecretion.