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Numerous observational studies have attempted to identify risk factors for infection with SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 disease outcomes. Studies have used datasets sampled from patients admitted to hospital, people tested for active infection, or people who volunteered to participate. Here, we highlight the challenge of interpreting observational evidence from such non-representative samples. Collider bias can induce associations between two or more variables which affect the likelihood of an individual being sampled, distorting associations between these variables in the sample. Analysing UK Biobank data, compared to the wider cohort the participants tested for COVID-19 were highly selected for a range of genetic, behavioural, cardiovascular, demographic, and anthropometric traits. We discuss the mechanisms inducing these problems, and approaches that could help mitigate them. While collider bias should be explored in existing studies, the optimal way to mitigate the problem is to use appropriate sampling strategies at the study design stage., Many published studies of the current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic have analysed data from non-representative samples from populations. Here, using UK BioBank samples, Gibran Hemani and colleagues discuss the potential for such studies to suffer from collider bias, and provide suggestions for optimising study design to account for this.

We describe the impact of changing epidemiology and vaccine introduction on characteristics of COVID-19 outbreaks in 330 long-term care facilities (LTCF) in England between November 2020 and June 2021. As vaccine coverage in LTCF increased and national incidence declined, the total number of outbreaks and outbreak severity decreased across the LTCF. The number of infected cases per outbreak decreased by 80.6%, while the proportion of outbreaks affecting staff only increased. Our study supports findings of vaccine effectiveness in LTCF.

BackgroundThe causal impact of excess adiposity on systemic metabolism is unclear. We used multivariable Mendelian randomization to compare the direct effects of total adiposity (using body mass index (BMI)) and abdominal adiposity (using waist-to-hip-ratio (WHR)) on circulating lipoproteins, lipids, and metabolites with a five-fold increase in sample size over previous studies.MethodsWe used new metabolic data on 109,532 UK Biobank participants. BMI and WHR were measured in 2006-2010, during which EDTA plasma was collected. Plasma samples were used in 2019-2020 to quantify 249 metabolic traits with high-throughput nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy including subclass-specific lipoprotein concentrations, apolipoprotein B, cholesterol and triglycerides, plus pre-glycemic and inflammatory metabolites. We used two-stage least squares regression models with genetic risk scores for BMI and WHR as instruments to estimate the total (unadjusted) and direct (mutually adjusted) effects of BMI and WHR on metabolic traits. We also estimated the effects of BMI and WHR on statin use, and examined interaction of main effects by sex, statin use, and age as a proxy for medication use.ResultsHigher BMI (per standard deviation (SD) or 4.8 kg/m2) was estimated to moderately decrease apolipoprotein B and low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol before and after adjustment for WHR, whilst higher BMI increased triglycerides before but not after WHR adjustment. Estimated effects of higher WHR (per SD, or 0.090 ratio-unit) on lipoproteins, lipids, and metabolites were often larger than those of BMI, but null for LDL cholesterol, and attenuations were minimal upon adjustment for BMI. Patterns of effect estimates differed by sex, e.g., only BMI independently increased triglycerides among men, whereas only WHR independently increased triglycerides among women. Higher BMI and WHR (per SD) were each estimated to directly increase the relative odds of using statins (by 3.49 (95% CI = 3.42, 3.57) times higher for WHR). These patterns were most pronounced among women, and there was strong evidence that the effects of BMI and WHR on metabolic traits differed by statin use and age. Among the youngest adults (38-53 years, statin use 5%), higher BMI and WHR (per SD) each modestly increased LDL cholesterol (0.04 SD, 95% CI = -0.01, 0.08 for total effect of BMI and 0.10 SD, 95% CI = 0.02, 0.17 for total effect of WHR). This estimate for BMI fully attenuated, and the estimate for WHR remained unchanged, upon mutual adjustment. These direct effects on LDL cholesterol were more inverse for BMI and less positive for WHR at intermediate ages (54-62 years, statins 17%) and older ages (63-73 years, statins 29%) where the mutually adjusted effects of BMI and WHR on LDL cholesterol had reversed to -0.19 SD (95% CI = -0.27, -0.11) and -0.05 SD (95% CI = -0.16, 0.06), respectively.ConclusionsOur results suggest that abdominal adiposity has a dominant role in driving the metabolic harms of excess adiposity, particularly among women. Our findings also suggest that apparent effects of adiposity on lowering LDL cholesterol are explained by an effect of adiposity on statin use.

Summary: Background: SARS-CoV-2 infection represents a major challenge for long-term care facilities (LTCFs) and many residents and staff are seropositive following persistent outbreaks. We aimed to investigate the association between the SARS-CoV-2 antibody status at baseline and subsequent infection in this population. Methods: We did a prospective cohort study of SARS-CoV-2 infection in staff (aged 65 years) at 100 LTCFs in England between Oct 1, 2020, and Feb 1, 2021. Blood samples were collected between June and November, 2020, at baseline, and 2 and 4 months thereafter and tested for IgG antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid and spike proteins. PCR testing for SARS-CoV-2 was done weekly in staff and monthly in residents. Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) of a PCR-positive test by baseline antibody status, adjusted for age and sex, and stratified by LTCF. Findings: 682 residents from 86 LCTFs and 1429 staff members from 97 LTCFs met study inclusion criteria. At baseline, IgG antibodies to nucleocapsid were detected in 226 (33%) of 682 residents and 408 (29%) of 1429 staff members. 93 (20%) of 456 residents who were antibody-negative at baseline had a PCR-positive test (infection rate 0·054 per month at risk) compared with four (2%) of 226 residents who were antibody-positive at baseline (0·007 per month at risk). 111 (11%) of 1021 staff members who were antibody-negative at baseline had PCR-positive tests (0·042 per month at risk) compared with ten (2%) of 408 staff members who were antibody-positive staff at baseline (0·009 per month at risk). The risk of PCR-positive infection was higher for residents who were antibody-negative at baseline than residents who were antibody-positive at baseline (adjusted HR [aHR] 0·15, 95% CI 0·05–0·44, p=0·0006), and the risk of a PCR-positive infection was also higher for staff who were antibody-negative at baseline compared with staff who were antibody-positive at baseline (aHR 0·39, 0·19–0·82; p=0·012). 12 of 14 reinfected participants had available data on symptoms, and 11 of these participants were symptomatic. Antibody titres to spike and nucleocapsid proteins were comparable in PCR-positive and PCR-negative cases. Interpretation: The presence of IgG antibodies to nucleocapsid protein was associated with substantially reduced risk of reinfection in staff and residents for up to 10 months after primary infection. Funding: UK Government Department of Health and Social Care.

ObjectivesTo investigate how the COVID-19 pandemic affected the number of people aged 50+ years presenting to primary care with features that could potentially indicate cancer, and to explore how reporting differed by patient characteristics and in face-to-face vs remote consultations.Design, setting and participantsA retrospective cohort study of general practitioner (GP), nurse and paramedic primary care consultations in 21 practices in South-West England covering 123 947 patients. The models compared potential cancer indicators reported in April–July 2019 with April–July 2020.Main outcome measuresPotential indicators of cancer were identified using code lists for symptoms, signs, test results and diagnoses listed in the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence suspected cancer referral guidance (NG12).ResultsDuring April–July 2019, 17% of registered patients aged 50+ years reported a potential cancer indicator in a consultation with a GP or nurse. During April–July 2020, this reduced to 11% (incidence rate ratio (IRR) 0.64, 95% CI 0.62 to 0.67, pConclusionThe number of patients consulting with presentations that could potentially indicate cancer reduced during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. Patients should be encouraged to continue contacting primary care for persistent signs and symptoms, and GPs and nurses should be encouraged to probe patients for further information during remote consulting, in the absence of non-verbal cues.

Summary Background The effectiveness of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines in older adults living in long-term care facilities is uncertain. We investigated the protective effect of the first dose of the Oxford-AstraZeneca non-replicating viral-vectored vaccine (ChAdOx1 nCoV-19; AZD1222) and the Pfizer-BioNTech mRNA-based vaccine (BNT162b2) in residents of long-term care facilities in terms of PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection over time since vaccination. Methods The VIVALDI study is a prospective cohort study that commenced recruitment on June 11, 2020, to investigate SARS-CoV-2 transmission, infection outcomes, and immunity in residents and staff in long-term care facilities in England that provide residential or nursing care for adults aged 65 years and older. In this cohort study, we included long-term care facility residents undergoing routine asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 testing between Dec 8, 2020 (the date the vaccine was first deployed in a long-term care facility), and March 15, 2021, using national testing data linked within the COVID-19 Datastore. Using Cox proportional hazards regression, we estimated the relative hazard of PCR-positive infection at 0–6 days, 7–13 days, 14–20 days, 21–27 days, 28–34 days, 35–48 days, and 49 days and beyond after vaccination, comparing unvaccinated and vaccinated person-time from the same cohort of residents, adjusting for age, sex, previous infection, local SARS-CoV-2 incidence, long-term care facility bed capacity, and clustering by long-term care facility. We also compared mean PCR cycle threshold (Ct) values for positive swabs obtained before and after vaccination. The study is registered with ISRCTN, number 14447421. Findings 10 412 care home residents aged 65 years and older from 310 LTCFs were included in this analysis. The median participant age was 86 years (IQR 80–91), 7247 (69·6%) of 10 412 residents were female, and 1155 residents (11·1%) had evidence of previous SARS-CoV-2 infection. 9160 (88·0%) residents received at least one vaccine dose, of whom 6138 (67·0%) received ChAdOx1 and 3022 (33·0%) received BNT162b2. Between Dec 8, 2020, and March 15, 2021, there were 36 352 PCR results in 670 628 person-days, and 1335 PCR-positive infections (713 in unvaccinated residents and 612 in vaccinated residents) were included. Adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for PCR-positive infection relative to unvaccinated residents declined from 28 days after the first vaccine dose to 0·44 (95% CI 0·24–0·81) at 28–34 days and 0·38 (0·19–0·77) at 35–48 days. Similar effect sizes were seen for ChAdOx1 (adjusted HR 0·32, 95% CI 0·15–0·66) and BNT162b2 (0·35, 0·17–0·71) vaccines at 35–48 days. Mean PCR Ct values were higher for infections that occurred at least 28 days after vaccination than for those occurring before vaccination (31·3 [SD 8·7] in 107 PCR-positive tests vs 26·6 [6·6] in 552 PCR-positive tests; p Interpretation Single-dose vaccination with BNT162b2 and ChAdOx1 vaccines provides substantial protection against infection in older adults from 4–7 weeks after vaccination and might reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission. However, the risk of infection is not eliminated, highlighting the ongoing need for non-pharmaceutical interventions to prevent transmission in long-term care facilities. Funding UK Government Department of Health and Social Care.

ObjectiveTo compare the effectiveness of the BNT162b2 mRNA (Pfizer-BioNTech) and the ChAdOx1 (Oxford-AstraZeneca) covid-19 vaccines against infection and covid-19 disease in health and social care workers.DesignCohort study, emulating a comparative effectiveness trial, on behalf of NHS England.SettingLinked primary care, hospital, and covid-19 surveillance records available within the OpenSAFELY-TPP research platform, covering a period when the SARS-CoV-2 Alpha variant was dominant.Participants317 341 health and social care workers vaccinated between 4 January and 28 February 2021, registered with a general practice using the TPP SystmOne clinical information system in England, and not clinically extremely vulnerable.InterventionsVaccination with either BNT162b2 or ChAdOx1 administered as part of the national covid-19 vaccine roll-out.Main outcome measuresRecorded SARS-CoV-2 positive test, or covid-19 related attendance at an accident and emergency (A&E) department or hospital admission occurring within 20 weeks of receipt of the first vaccine dose.ResultsOver the duration of 118 771 person-years of follow-up there were 6962 positive SARS-CoV-2 tests, 282 covid-19 related A&E attendances, and 166 covid-19 related hospital admissions. The cumulative incidence of each outcome was similar for both vaccines during the first 20 weeks after vaccination. The cumulative incidence of recorded SARS-CoV-2 infection 20 weeks after first-dose vaccination with BNT162b2 was 21.7 per 1000 people (95% confidence interval 20.9 to 22.4) and with ChAdOx1 was 23.7 (21.8 to 25.6), representing a difference of 2.04 per 1000 people (0.04 to 4.04). The difference in the cumulative incidence per 1000 people of covid-19 related A&E attendance at 20 weeks was 0.06 per 1000 people (95% CI −0.31 to 0.43). For covid-19 related hospital admission, this difference was 0.11 per 1000 people (−0.22 to 0.44).ConclusionsIn this cohort of healthcare workers where we would not anticipate vaccine type to be related to health status, we found no substantial differences in the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection or covid-19 disease up to 20 weeks after vaccination. Incidence dropped sharply at 3-4 weeks after vaccination, and there were few covid-19 related hospital attendance and admission events after this period. This is in line with expected onset of vaccine induced immunity and suggests strong protection against Alpha variant covid-19 disease for both vaccines in this relatively young and healthy population of healthcare workers.

BackgroundThe effectiveness of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines in frail older adults living in Long-Term Care Facilities (LTCFs) is uncertain. We estimated protective effects of the first dose of ChAdOx1 and BNT162b2 vaccines against infection in this population.MethodsCohort study comparing vaccinated and unvaccinated LTCF residents in England, undergoing routine asymptomatic testing (8 December 2020 - 15 March 2021). We estimated the relative hazard of PCR-positive infection using Cox proportional hazards regression, adjusting for age, sex, prior infection, local SARS-CoV-2 incidence, LTCF bed capacity, and clustering by LTCF.ResultsOf 10,412 residents (median age 86 years) from 310 LTCFs, 9,160 were vaccinated with either ChAdOx1 (6,138; 67%) or BNT162b2 (3,022; 33%) vaccines. A total of 670,628 person days and 1,335 PCR-positive infections were included. Adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) for PCR-positive infection relative to unvaccinated residents declined from 28 days following the first vaccine dose to 0·44 (0·24, 0·81) at 28-34 days and 0·38 (0·19, 0·77) at 35-48 days. Similar effect sizes were seen for ChAdOx1 (aHR 0·32 [0·15-0·66] and BNT162b2 (aHR 0·35 [0·17, 0·71]) vaccines at 35-48 days. Mean PCR cycle threshold values were higher, implying lower infectivity, for infections ≥28 days post-vaccination compared with those prior to vaccination (31·3 vs 26·6, pInterpretationThe first dose of BNT162b2 and ChAdOx1 vaccines was associated with substantially reduced SARS-CoV-2 infection risk in LTCF residents from 4 weeks to at least 7 weeks.FundingUK Government Department of Health and Social Care.Research in ContextEvidence before this studyWe conducted a systematic search for studies which evaluated SARS-CoV-2 vaccine effectiveness in residents of long-term care facilities (LTCFs) published between 01/01/2020 and 11/03/2021. We used variations of search terms for “COVID-19” AND “vaccine effectiveness” OR “vaccine efficacy” AND “care homes” OR “long term care facilities” OR “older people” on Ovid MEDLINE and MedRxiv. We identified one pre-print article regarding LTCFs in Denmark, which reported that a single dose of BNT162b was ineffective against SARS-CoV-2 infection in residents, however, participants received the second vaccine dose 24 days following the first dose on average, which is likely to be too soon to capture the protective effects of a single vaccine dose. Additionally, we identified two pre-print reports of studies evaluating vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic infection and hospitalisation amongst older adults in the community. The first of these found 81% vaccine effectiveness against COVID-19-related hospitalisation at 28-34 days following a single dose of BNT162b or ChAdOx1 in ≥80-year-olds. The second of these found vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic infection of 60% at 28-34 days and 73% at 35+ days following a single dose of ChAdOx1 in ≥70-year-olds. No studies were identified that focused on the effectiveness of a single vaccine dose against infection amongst LTCF residents at more than 4 weeks post-vaccination, a particularly important question in the context of the UK policy decision to extend the dose interval beyond 3 weeks.Added value of this studyWe conducted a prospective cohort study of 10,412 residents aged ≥65 years, from 310 LTCFs across England, to investigate the protective effect of the first dose of the ChAdOx1 and BNT162b vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 infection in frail older adults. We retrieved results from routine monthly PCR testing, as well as outbreak and clinical testing for SARS-CoV-2, thereby capturing data on asymptomatic as well as symptomatic infections, which we linked to vaccination records. We estimated vaccine effectiveness to be 56% (19-76%) at 28-34 days, and 62% (23-81%) at 35-48 days following a single dose of ChAdOx1 or BNT162. Our findings suggest that the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection is substantially reduced from 28 days following the first dose of either vaccine and that this effect is maintained for at least 7 weeks, with similar protection offered by both vaccine types. We also found that PCR cycle threshold (Ct) values, which are negatively associated with the ability to isolate virus, were significantly higher in infections occurring at ≥ 28days post vaccination compared to those occurring in the unvaccinated period, suggesting that vaccination may reduce onward transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in breakthrough infections. To the best of our knowledge, our findings constitute the first real-world evidence on vaccine effectiveness against infection for ChAdOx1, in any age group. We can also infer that both vaccines are effective against the B.1.1.7 variant, because our analysis period coincided with the rapid emergence of B.1.1.7 in England during the second wave of the pandemic.Implications of all the available evidenceOur findings add to the growing body of evidence on the protective effect of the BNT162b vaccines in residents of LTCFs and demonstrate the effectiveness of ChAdOx1 in this vulnerable population. Evaluating single-dose vaccine efficacy has become increasingly important in light of extended dosing intervals that have been implemented in order to maximise vaccine coverage across high-risk groups. Further work is required to evaluate the effectiveness of the first vaccine dose after 8-12 weeks, as well as following the second dose, and to evaluate the long-term impact of vaccination on SARS-CoV-2 infection, transmission and mortality in LTCFs. This will inform policy decisions regarding the ongoing need for disease control measures in LTCF such as visitor restrictions, which continue to have a detrimental impact on the wellbeing of residents, their relatives, and staff.Supplementary material attached.

BackgroundSARS-CoV-2 infection represents a major challenge for Long Term Care Facilities (LTCFs) and many residents and staff are now sero-positive following persistent outbreaks. We investigated the relationship between the presence of SARS-CoV-2 specific antibodies and subsequent infection in this population.MethodsProspective cohort study of infection in staff and residents in 100 LTCFs in England between October 2020 and February 2021. Blood samples were collected at baseline (June 2020), 2 and 4 months and tested for IgG antibodies to nucleocapsid and spike protein. PCR testing for SARS-CoV-2 was undertaken weekly in staff and monthly in residents. The primary analysis estimated the relative hazard of a PCR-positive test by baseline antibody status, from Cox regression adjusted for age and gender, and stratified by LTCF.FindingsStudy inclusion criteria were met by 682 residents and 1429 staff. Baseline IgG antibodies to nucleocapsid were detected in 226 residents (33%) and 408 staff (29%). A total of 93 antibody-negative residents had a PCR-positive test (0.054 per month at risk) compared to 4 antibody-positive residents (0.007 per month at risk). There were 111 PCR-positive tests in antibody-negative staff (0.042 per month at risk) compared to 10 in antibody-positive staff (0.009 per month at risk). The adjusted hazard ratios for reinfection in staff and residents with a baseline positive versus negative antibody test were 0.13 (95% CI 0.05-0.40) and 0.39 ((95% CI: 0.19-0.77) respectively. Of 12 reinfected participants with data on symptoms, 11 were symptomatic. Antibody titres to spike and nucleocapsid were comparable in PCR-positive and PCR-negative cases.InterpretationThe presence of IgG antibodies to nucleocapsid was associated with substantially reduced risk of reinfection in staff and residents for up to 10 months after primary infection.FundingUK Government Department of Health and Social CareResearch in contextEvidence before this studyWe performed a systematic search of MEDLINE (Ovid) and MedRxiv on 18 January 2021 for studies in LTCFs that described the risk of infection in individuals who were seropositive for SARS-CoV-2 compared to individuals who were seronegative. Search terms were deliberately broad to improve capture of relevant literature and included “SARS-CoV-2”OR “COVID-19” OR “coronavirus” AND “care home” OR “nursing home” OR “long term care facility” with no date or language restrictions. We did not identify any publications that focussed on risk of reinfection in seropositive individuals, but subsequent to our search one study has been published using data from two LTCFs in London, UK. This study reported a 96% reduction in the odds of reinfection in individuals who were seropositive compared to those who were seronegative based on 4-month follow-up in 161 participants. We found 10 studies that performed seroprevalence surveys in either staff or staff and residents in LTCFs in 8 cohorts. Five of these were carried out in response to SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks within the care homes, either as part of the subsequent investigation or as post-infection surveillance. The largest of these, which enrolled both staff and residents, was performed in 6 LTCFs and performed longitudinal antibody testing.Added value of this studyWe undertook a cohort study in staff and residents from 100 LTCFs in England to investigate whether individuals with evidence of prior SARS-CoV-2 infection could be infected twice. Staff and residents were offered up to three rounds of antibody testing and antibody results were linked to PCR test results which were obtained weekly from staff and monthly from residents through the national SARS-CoV-2 testing programme. This study, which was conducted in >2000 staff and residents, suggests that antibodies provide high levels of protection against reinfection for up to 10 months. Almost all cases of reinfection were symptomatic, but no cases required hospital treatment. Amongst those with detectable baseline antibodies, quantitative antibody titres against spike protein and nucleocapsid were comparable between cases of reinfection and those who did not become reinfected.Implications of all available evidenceDespite high background rates of infection in LTCFs, the overall risk of reinfection was low in this population. This is broadly consistent with findings from large cohort studies of hospital staff, but, importantly, extends the evidence of substantial protection to frail elderly, who are vulnerable to severe outcomes of SARS-CoV-2 due to age-related changes in immunity (immune-senescence) and high levels of comorbidity. The low risk of reinfection in our study suggests identification of immune correlates of protection in this population will require pooling of data across multiple cohorts.As vaccination coverage in residents approaches 100% in England, it will be important to understand whether vaccination and natural infection provide comparable levels of protection against infection. Such insights will inform future policy decisions regarding re-vaccination schedules in LTCF, and the longer-term need for non-pharmaceutical interventions to prevent SARS-CoV-2 transmission, such as asymptomatic testing and visitor restrictions.

OBJECTIVE Observational studies have demonstrated that type 2 diabetes is a stronger risk factor for coronary heart disease (CHD) in women compared with men. However, it is not clear whether this reflects a sex differential in the causal effect of diabetes on CHD risk or results from sex-specific residual confounding. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS Using 270 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for type 2 diabetes identified in a type 2 diabetes genome-wide association study, we performed a sex-stratified Mendelian randomization (MR) study of type 2 diabetes and CHD using individual participant data in UK Biobank (251,420 women and 212,049 men). Weighted median, MR-Egger, MR-pleiotropy residual sum and outlier, and radial MR from summary-level analyses were used for pleiotropy assessment. RESULTS MR analyses showed that genetic risk of type 2 diabetes increased the odds of CHD for women (odds ratio 1.13 [95% CI 1.08–1.18] per 1-log unit increase in odds of type 2 diabetes) and men (1.21 [1.17–1.26] per 1-log unit increase in odds of type 2 diabetes). Sensitivity analyses showed some evidence of directional pleiotropy; however, results were similar after correction for outlier SNPs. CONCLUSIONS This MR analysis supports a causal effect of genetic liability to type 2 diabetes on risk of CHD that is not stronger for women than men. Assuming a lack of bias, these findings suggest that the prevention and management of type 2 diabetes for CHD risk reduction is of equal priority in both sexes.

Background: The effectiveness of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines in frail older adults living in Long-Term Care Facilities (LTCFs) is uncertain. We estimated protective effects of the first dose of ChAdOx1 and BNT162b2 vaccines against infection in this population. Methods: Cohort study comparing vaccinated and unvaccinated LTCF residents in England, undergoing routine asymptomatic testing (8 December 2020 - 15 March 2021). We estimated the relative hazard of PCR-positive infection using Cox proportional hazards regression, adjusting for age, sex, prior infection, local SARS-CoV-2 incidence, LTCF bed capacity, and clustering by LTCF. Results: Of 10,412 residents (median age 86 years) from 310 LTCFs, 9,160 were vaccinated with either ChAdOx1 (6,138; 67%) or BNT162b2 (3,022; 33%) vaccines. A total of 670,628 person days and 1,335 PCR-positive infections were included. Adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) for PCR-positive infection relative to unvaccinated residents declined from 28 days following the first vaccine dose to 0·44 (0·24, 0·81) at 28-34 days and 0·38 (0·19, 0·77) at 35-48 days. Similar effect sizes were seen for ChAdOx1 (aHR 0·32 [0·15-0·66] and BNT162b2 (aHR 0·35 [0·17, 0·71]) vaccines at 35-48 days. Mean PCR cycle threshold values were higher, implying lower infectivity, for infections ≥28 days post-vaccination compared with those prior to vaccination (31·3 vs 26·6, p

Initial global-level estimates reported in June 2020 by the World Health Organization suggested that levels of disruption to TB service delivery could be as high as 25%-50% and result in an additional 6·3 million cases of tuberculosis (TB) and an additional 1·4 million TB-related deaths attributable to COVID-19 between 2020 and 2025. Quarterly epidemiological estimates and programmatic TB data capturing disruption levels to each TB service were collected by National TB Programmes in Indonesia, Kyrgyzstan, Malawi, Mozambique, and Peru. Data from 2019, for a pre-COVID-19 baseline, and throughout 2020, together with the NTP’s COVID-19 response plans, were used within Optima TB models to project TB incidence and deaths over five years because of COVID-19-related disruptions, and the extent to which those impacts may be mitigated through proposed catch-up strategies in each country. Countries reported disruptions of up to 64% to demand-driven TB diagnosis. However, TB service availability disruptions were shorter and less severe, with TB treatment experiencing levels of disruption of up to 21%. We predicted that under the worse-case scenario cumulative new latent TB infections, new active TB infections, and TB-related deaths could increase by up to 23%, 11%, and 20%, respectively, by 2024. However, three of the five countries were on track to mitigate these increases to 3% or less by maintaining TB services in 2021 and 2022 and by implementing proposed catch-up strategies. Indonesia was already experiencing the worse-case scenario, which could lead to 270,000 additional active TB infections and 36,000 additional TB-related deaths by the end of 2024. The COVID-19 pandemic is projected to negatively affect progress towards 2035 End TB targets, especially in countries already off-track. Findings highlight both successful TB service delivery adaptions in 2020 and the need to proactively maintain TB service availability despite potential future waves of more transmissible COVID-19 variants.

Global infection and mortality rates from severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) are disproportionately high in certain populations, including amongst older people. Care home residents are frequently exposed to infection due to contact with staff and other residents, and are highly susceptible to infection due to their age and co-morbidity. In England, official statistics suggest that at least 25% of all deaths in care home residents since the start of pandemic are linked to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), but limited testing for SARS-CoV-2 early in the pandemic means estimates of the true burden of disease are lacking. Additionally, little is known about patterns of transmission between care homes, the community and hospitals, or the relationship between infection and immunity in care home staff and residents. The VIVALDI study plans to address these questions. VIVALDI is a prospective cohort study aiming to recruit 6,500 staff and 5000 residents from 105 care homes across England. Successive rounds of testing for infection will be performed over a period of 12 months. Nasopharyngeal swabs will detect evidence of viral RNA and therefore active infection (accompanied by collection of data on symptoms), whereas blood tests will detect antibodies and evidence of cellular immunity to SARS-CoV-2. Whole genome sequencing of viral isolates to investigate pathways of transmission of infection is planned in collaboration with the COVID-19 Genomics UK Consortium. Qualitative interviews with care home staff will investigate the impact of the pandemic on ways of working and how test results influence infection control practices and behaviours. Data from residents and staff will be linked to national datasets on hospital admissions, antibody and PCR test results, mortality and care home characteristics. Data generated will support national public health efforts to prevent transmission of COVID-19 and protect care home staff and residents from infection. Protocol registration: ISRCTN14447421 05/06/2020

Background Circulating lipoprotein lipids cause coronary heart disease (CHD). However, the precise way in which one or more lipoprotein lipid-related entities account for this relationship remains unclear. Using genetic instruments for lipoprotein lipid traits implemented through multivariable Mendelian randomisation (MR), we sought to compare their causal roles in the aetiology of CHD. Methods and findings We conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of circulating non-fasted lipoprotein lipid traits in the UK Biobank (UKBB) for low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol, triglycerides, and apolipoprotein B to identify lipid-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Using data from CARDIoGRAMplusC4D for CHD (consisting of 60,801 cases and 123,504 controls), we performed univariable and multivariable MR analyses. Similar GWAS and MR analyses were conducted for high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol and apolipoprotein A-I. The GWAS of lipids and apolipoproteins in the UKBB included between 393,193 and 441,016 individuals in whom the mean age was 56.9 y (range 39–73 y) and of whom 54.2% were women. The mean (standard deviation) lipid concentrations were LDL cholesterol 3.57 (0.87) mmol/L and HDL cholesterol 1.45 (0.38) mmol/L, and the median triglycerides was 1.50 (IQR = 1.11) mmol/L. The mean (standard deviation) values for apolipoproteins B and A-I were 1.03 (0.24) g/L and 1.54 (0.27) g/L, respectively. The GWAS identified multiple independent SNPs associated at P < 5 × 10−8 for LDL cholesterol (220), apolipoprotein B (n = 255), triglycerides (440), HDL cholesterol (534), and apolipoprotein A-I (440). Between 56%–93% of SNPs identified for each lipid trait had not been previously reported in large-scale GWASs. Almost half (46%) of these SNPs were associated at P < 5 × 10−8 with more than one lipid-related trait. Assessed individually using MR, LDL cholesterol (odds ratio [OR] 1.66 per 1-standard-deviation–higher trait; 95% CI: 1.49–1.86; P < 0.001), triglycerides (OR 1.34; 95% CI: 1.25–1.44; P < 0.001) and apolipoprotein B (OR 1.73; 95% CI: 1.56–1.91; P < 0.001) had effect estimates consistent with a higher risk of CHD. In multivariable MR, only apolipoprotein B (OR 1.92; 95% CI: 1.31–2.81; P < 0.001) retained a robust effect, with the estimate for LDL cholesterol (OR 0.85; 95% CI: 0.57–1.27; P = 0.44) reversing and that of triglycerides (OR 1.12; 95% CI: 1.02–1.23; P = 0.01) becoming weaker. Individual MR analyses showed a 1-standard-deviation–higher HDL cholesterol (OR 0.80; 95% CI: 0.75–0.86; P < 0.001) and apolipoprotein A-I (OR 0.83; 95% CI: 0.77–0.89; P < 0.001) to lower the risk of CHD, but these effect estimates attenuated substantially to the null on accounting for apolipoprotein B. A limitation is that, owing to the nature of lipoprotein metabolism, measures related to the composition of lipoprotein particles are highly correlated, creating a challenge in making exclusive interpretations on causation of individual components. Conclusions These findings suggest that apolipoprotein B is the predominant trait that accounts for the aetiological relationship of lipoprotein lipids with risk of CHD., Author summary Why was this study done? There is uncertainty regarding which lipid or apolipoprotein trait is the predominant atherogenic agent involved in the aetiology of lipids and coronary heart disease (CHD). The elucidation of such is important because not only does it clarify the aetiological understanding of the pathogenesis of CHD, it also hones the focus on the lipid- or apolipoprotein-related trait that should be the focus when developing lipid-modifying interventions. What did the researchers do and find? We used data on up to 441,016 participants from the UK Biobank to conduct genome-wide association analyses to find genetic variants reliably associated with lipoprotein lipid and apolipoprotein concentrations: this led to the identification of multiple independent genetic variants, each associated very robustly (at P < 5 × 10−8) with LDL cholesterol (220 genetic variants), apolipoprotein B (255 genetic variants), triglycerides (440 genetic variants), HDL cholesterol (534 genetic variants), and apolipoprotein A–I (440 genetic variants). Hundreds of these variants identified were novel, to our knowledge. When we explored the potential causal role of these lipids and apolipoproteins in isolation using Mendelian randomisation, we found evidence compatible with LDL cholesterol, triglycerides, and apolipoprotein B increasing the risk of CHD and HDL cholesterol and apolipoproteins A-I lowering CHD risk. When we examined these lipids and apolipoproteins together in multivariable Mendelian randomisation, we found that only apolipoprotein B retained a robust relationship with the risk of CHD—the effect estimates for all other entities were either substantially attenuated to the null or reversed in direction. What do these findings mean? The analytical approach in this study implemented through multivariable Mendelian randomisation simultaneously accounts for genetic associations with lipids and apolipoproteins and should therefore provide more reliable insights into what is the underlying driver of CHD. These findings support that, amongst the repertoire of lipoprotein lipids and apolipoproteins that we investigated, apolipoprotein B has a fundamental role in the aetiology of CHD.

Circulating proteins are vital in human health and disease and are frequently used as biomarkers for clinical decision-making or as targets for pharmacological intervention. Here, we map and replicate protein quantitative trait loci (pQTL) for 90 cardiovascular proteins in over 30,000 individuals, resulting in 451 pQTLs for 85 proteins. For each protein, we further perform pathway mapping to obtain trans-pQTL gene and regulatory designations. We substantiate these regulatory findings with orthogonal evidence for trans-pQTLs using mouse knockdown experiments (ABCA1 and TRIB1) and clinical trial results (chemokine receptors CCR2 and CCR5), with consistent regulation. Finally, we evaluate known drug targets, and suggest new target candidates or repositioning opportunities using Mendelian randomization. This identifies 11 proteins with causal evidence of involvement in human disease that have not previously been targeted, including EGF, IL-16, PAPPA, SPON1, F3, ADM, CASP-8, CHI3L1, CXCL16, GDF15 and MMP-12. Taken together, these findings demonstrate the utility of large-scale mapping of the genetics of the proteome and provide a resource for future precision studies of circulating proteins in human health.

Objectives Randomization can be used as an instrumental variable (IV) to account for unmeasured confounding when seeking to assess the impact of noncompliance with treatment allocation in a randomized trial. We present and compare different methods to calculate the treatment effect on a binary outcome as a rate ratio in a randomized surgical trial. Study Design and Setting The effectiveness of peeling versus not peeling the internal limiting membrane of the retina as part of the surgery for a full thickness macular hole. We compared the IV-based estimates (nonparametric causal bound and two-stage residual inclusion approach [2SRI]) with standard treatment effect measures (intention to treat, per protocol and treatment received [TR]). Compliance was defined in two ways (initial and up to the time point of interest). Poisson regression was used for the model-based approaches with robust standard errors to calculate the risk ratio (RR) with 95% confidence intervals. Results Results were similar for 1-month macular hole status across methods. For 3- and 6-month macular hole status, nonparametric causal bounds provided a narrower range of uncertainty than other methods, though still had substantial imprecision. For 3-month macular hole status, the TR estimate was substantially different from the other point estimates. Conclusion Nonparametric causal bound approaches are a useful addition to an IV estimation approach, which tend to have large levels of uncertainty. Methods which allow RRs to be calculated when addressing noncompliance in randomized trials exist and may be superior to standard estimates. Further research is needed to explore the properties of different IV methods in a broad range of randomized controlled trial scenarios.

The latest United Kingdom (UK) strategy for rare diseases emphasises the need to empower affected populations to improve diagnosis, intervention, and coordination of care. Families who have a child with a rare chromosome disorder (RCD) are a challenging group to include. We report the findings of 2 large-scale surveys, undertaken by the UK RCD Support Group Unique, of these families' experiences over a 10-year period. Seven stages of the patient journey were examined. From pre-testing, through diagnosis, genetics consultation, clinical follow-up and peer support. Overall, 1158 families replied; 36.4% response rate (2003) and 53.6% (2013). Analysis of responses identifies significant differences (P < .001) over time with a decrease in results reported face to face (76%-62%), doubling by telephone (12%-22%), improved explanation of chromosome disorder (57%-75%), and increased signposting to peer support group (34%-62%). However, conduct of the consultation raises a number of important questions. Overall, 28 aspects of the patient journey are recognised as requiring improvement; only 12/28 are currently incorporated in UK service specifications. Involvement of RCD families has identified key service improvements. This approach can empower those affected by such extremely rare disorders, and also enable professionals to design improved services in partnership with "expert families." Further surveys are planned.

Approximately 85% of tuberculosis (TB) related deaths occur in low- and middle-income countries where health resources are scarce. Effective priority setting is required to maximise the impact of limited budgets. The Optima TB tool has been developed to support analytical capacity and inform evidence-based priority setting processes for TB health benefits package design. This paper outlines the Optima TB framework and how it was applied in Belarus, an upper-middle income country in Eastern Europe with a relatively high burden of TB. Optima TB is a population-based disease transmission model, with programmatic cost functions and an optimisation algorithm. Modelled populations include age-differentiated general populations and higher-risk populations such as people living with HIV. Populations and prospective interventions are defined in consultation with local stakeholders. In partnership with the latter, demographic, epidemiological, programmatic, as well as cost and spending data for these populations and interventions are then collated. An optimisation analysis of TB spending was conducted in Belarus, using program objectives and constraints defined in collaboration with local stakeholders, which included experts, decision makers, funders and organisations involved in service delivery, support and technical assistance. These analyses show that it is possible to improve health impact by redistributing current TB spending in Belarus. Specifically, shifting funding from inpatient- to outpatient-focused care models, and from mass screening to active case finding strategies, could reduce TB prevalence and mortality by up to 45% and 50%, respectively, by 2035. In addition, an optimised allocation of TB spending could lead to a reduction in drug-resistant TB infections by 40% over this period. This would support progress towards national TB targets without additional financial resources. The case study in Belarus demonstrates how reallocations of spending across existing and new interventions could have a substantial impact on TB outcomes. This highlights the potential for Optima TB and similar modelling tools to support evidence-based priority setting., Author summary Tuberculosis (TB) remains a leading global cause of death and morbidity, and 85% of deaths occur in countries where resources for TB care and control are limited. Many countries cannot finance all TB interventions or technologies, which means difficult decisions on what to prioritise and publically finance. Modelling tools can help decision-makers set priorities based on evidence, in a systematic and transparent way. This study presents Optima TB, a tool that estimates which allocations of spending across interventions will most likely maximise specified objectives—such as minimising TB deaths, prevalence and incidence. In partnership with local decision-makers and stakeholders, Optima TB was applied in Belarus. Recommendations from the model findings include focussing investment on outpatient rather than inpatient care and actively finding people with TB (e.g. through contact tracing) rather than mass testing of the population. The recommended reallocations of spending could reduce TB prevalence and deaths by up to 45% and 50%, respectively, by 2035 for the same amount of spending. Key stakeholders were engaged throughout the analysis and findings and uncertainty around the results were clearly communicated with decision-makers. The timeliness of the results helped inform national dialogue on TB care reform, among other key policy discussions.

Background: Circulating blood lipids cause coronary heart disease (CHD). However, the precise way in which one or more lipoprotein lipid-related entities account for this relationship remains unclear. We sought to explore the causal relationships of blood lipid traits with risk of CHD using multivariable Mendelian randomization. Methods: We conducted GWAS of circulating blood lipid traits in UK Biobank (up to n=440,546) for LDL cholesterol, triglycerides and apolipoprotein B to identify lipid-associated SNPs. Using data from CARDIoGRAMplusC4D for CHD (consisting of 60,801 cases and 123,504 controls), we performed univariable and multivariable Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses. Similar analyses were conducted for HDL cholesterol and apolipoprotein A-I. Findings: GWAS identified multiple independent SNPs associated at P

High systolic blood pressure (SBP) causes cardiovascular disease (CVD) and is associated with mortality from other causes, but conventional multivariably-adjusted results may be confounded. Here we used a son’s SBP (>1 million Swedish men) as an instrumental variable for parental SBP and examined associations with parents’ cause-specific mortality, avoiding reverse causation. The hazard ratio for CVD mortality per SD (10.80 mmHg) of SBP was 1.49 (95% CI: 1.43, 1.56); SBP was positively associated with coronary heart disease and stroke. SBP was also associated positively with all-cause, diabetes and kidney cancer mortality, and negatively with external causes. Negative associations with respiratory-related mortality were probably confounded by smoking. Hazard ratios for other causes were imprecise or null. Diastolic blood pressure gave similar results to SBP. CVD hazard ratios were intermediate between those from conventional multivariable studies and Mendelian randomization and stronger than those from clinical trials, approximately consistent with an effect of exposure duration on effect sizes. Plots of parental mortality against offspring SBP were approximately linear, supporting calls for lower SBP targets. Results suggest that conventional multivariable analyses of mortality and SBP are not substantially confounded by reverse causation and confirm positive effects of SBP on all-cause, CVD and diabetes mortality.

ObjectivePsoriasis and eczema are common inflammatory skin diseases that have been reported to be associated with obesity. However, causality has not yet been established. We aimed to investigate the possible causal relationship between body mass index (BMI) and psoriasis or eczema.MethodsFollowing a review of published epidemiological evidence of the association between obesity and either psoriasis or eczema, Mendelian Randomization (MR) was used to test for a causal relationship between BMI and these inflammatory skin conditions. We used a genetic instrument comprising 97 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with BMI. One-sample MR was conducted using individual-level data (401,508 individuals) from the UK Biobank and the Nord-Trøndelag Health Study (HUNT), Norway. Two-sample MR was performed with summary-level data (731,021 individuals) from published BMI, psoriasis and eczema GWAS. The one-sample and two-sample MR estimates were meta-analysed using a fixed effect model. To explore the reverse causal direction, MR analysis with genetic instruments comprising variants from recent genome-wide analyses for psoriasis and eczema were used to test if inflammatory skin disease has a causal effect on BMI.ResultsPublished observational data show an association of greater BMI with both psoriasis and eczema case status. The observational associations were confirmed in UK Biobank and HUNT datasets. MR analyses provide evidence that higher BMI causally increases the odds of psoriasis (by 53% per 5 units higher BMI; OR= 1.09 (1.06 to 1.12) per 1 kg/m2; P=4.67×10-9) and eczema (by 8% per 5 units higher BMI; OR=1.02 (1.00 to 1.03) per 1 kg/m2; P=0.09). When investigating causality in the opposite direction, MR estimates provide little evidence for an effect of either psoriasis or eczema influencing BMI.ConclusionOur study, using genetic variants as instrumental variables for BMI, shows that higher BMI leads to a higher risk of inflammatory skin disease. The causal relationship was stronger for psoriasis than eczema. Therapies and life-style interventions aimed at controlling BMI or targeting the mechanisms linking obesity with skin inflammation may offer an opportunity for the prevention or treatment of these common skin diseases.

Essentials Observational data suggest taller people have a higher risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE). We used Mendelian randomization techniques to further explore this association in three studies. Risk of VTE increased by 30-40% for each 10 cm increment in height. Height was more strongly associated with deep vein thrombosis than with pulmonary embolism.Background Taller height is associated with a greater risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE). Objectives To use instrumental variable (IV) techniques (Mendelian randomization) to further explore this relationship. Methods Participants of European ancestry were included from two cohort studies (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities [ARIC] study and Cardiovascular Health Study [CHS]) and one case-control study (Mayo Clinic VTE Study [Mayo]). We created two weighted genetic risk scores (GRSs) for height; the full GRS included 668 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from a previously published meta-analysis, and the restricted GRS included a subset of 362 SNPs not associated with weight independently of height. Standard logistic regression and IV models were used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) for VTE per 10-cm increment in height. ORs were pooled across the three studies by the use of inverse variance-weighted random effects meta-analysis. Results Among 9143 ARIC and 3180 CHS participants free of VTE at baseline, there were 367 and 109 incident VTE events. There were 1143 VTE cases and 1292 controls included from Mayo. The pooled ORs from non-IV models and models using the full and restricted GRSs as IVs were 1.27 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.11-1.46), 1.34 (95% CI 1.04-1.73) and 1.45 (95% CI 1.04-2.01) per 10-cm greater height, respectively. Conclusions Taller height is associated with an increased risk of VTE in adults of European ancestry. Possible explanations for this association, including taller people having a greater venous surface area, a higher number of venous valves, or greater hydrostatic pressure, need to be explored further.

Background: The implications of different adiposity measures on cardiovascular disease etiology remain unclear. In this article, we quantify and contrast causal associations of central adiposity (waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for body mass index [WHRadjBMI]) and general adiposity (body mass index [BMI]) with cardiometabolic disease. Methods: Ninety-seven independent single-nucleotide polymorphisms for BMI and 49 single-nucleotide polymorphisms for WHRadjBMI were used to conduct Mendelian randomization analyses in 14 prospective studies supplemented with coronary heart disease (CHD) data from CARDIoGRAMplusC4D (Coronary Artery Disease Genome-wide Replication and Meta-analysis [CARDIoGRAM] plus The Coronary Artery Disease [C4D] Genetics; combined total 66 842 cases), stroke from METASTROKE (12 389 ischemic stroke cases), type 2 diabetes mellitus from DIAGRAM (Diabetes Genetics Replication and Meta-analysis; 34 840 cases), and lipids from GLGC (Global Lipids Genetic Consortium; 213 500 participants) consortia. Primary outcomes were CHD, type 2 diabetes mellitus, and major stroke subtypes; secondary analyses included 18 cardiometabolic traits. Results: Each one standard deviation (SD) higher WHRadjBMI (1 SD≈0.08 U) associated with a 48% excess risk of CHD (odds ratio [OR] for CHD, 1.48; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.28–1.71), similar to findings for BMI (1 SD≈4.6 kg/m 2 ; OR for CHD, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.22–1.52). Only WHRadjBMI increased risk of ischemic stroke (OR, 1.32; 95% CI, 1.03–1.70). For type 2 diabetes mellitus, both measures had large effects: OR, 1.82 (95% CI, 1.38–2.42) and OR, 1.98 (95% CI, 1.41–2.78) per 1 SD higher WHRadjBMI and BMI, respectively. Both WHRadjBMI and BMI were associated with higher left ventricular hypertrophy, glycemic traits, interleukin 6, and circulating lipids. WHRadjBMI was also associated with higher carotid intima-media thickness (39%; 95% CI, 9%–77% per 1 SD). Conclusions: Both general and central adiposity have causal effects on CHD and type 2 diabetes mellitus. Central adiposity may have a stronger effect on stroke risk. Future estimates of the burden of adiposity on health should include measures of central and general adiposity.

ObjectivesTo determine whether educational attainment is a causal risk factor in the development of coronary heart disease.DesignMendelian randomization study, where genetic data are used as proxies for education, in order to minimize confounding. A two-sample design was applied, where summary level genetic data was analysed from two publically available consortia.SettingIn the main analysis, we analysed genetic data from two large consortia (CARDIoGRAM and SSGAC), comprising of 112 cohorts from predominantly high-income countries. In addition, we also analysed genetic data from 7 additional large consortia, in order to identify putative causal mediators.ParticipantsThe main analysis was of 589 377 men and women, predominantly of European origin.ExposureA one standard deviation increase in the genetic predisposition towards higher education (i.e. 3.6 years of additional schooling). This was measured by 162 genetic variants that have been previously associated with education.Main outcomeCombined fatal and nonfatal coronary heart disease (63 746 events).Results3.6 years of additional education lowered the risk of coronary heart disease by a third (odds ratio = 0.67, 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.59 to 0.77, p=0.01). Equivalent increases in education were also causally associated with reductions in smoking, BMI and improvements in blood lipid profiles.ConclusionsMore time spent in education is causally associated with a large reduction in the risk of coronary heart disease. This may be partly explained by changes to smoking, BMI and a blood lipids. These findings offer support for policy interventions that increase education, in order to also reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease.

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this analysis was to compare the association between variants at the chromosome 9p21 locus (Ch9p21) and risk of first versus subsequent coronary heart disease (CHD) events through systematic review and meta-analysis. BACKGROUND: Ch9p21 is a recognized risk factor for a first CHD event. However, its association with risk of subsequent events in patients with established CHD is less clear. METHODS: We searched PubMed and EMBASE for prospective studies reporting association of Ch9p21 with incident CHD events and extracted information on cohort type (individuals without prior CHD or individuals with established CHD) and effect estimates for risk of events. RESULTS: We identified 31 cohorts reporting on 193,372 individuals. Among the 16 cohorts of individuals without prior CHD (n = 168,209), there were 15,664 first CHD events. Ch9p21 was associated with a pooled hazard ratio (HR) of a first event of 1.19 (95% confidence interval: 1.17 to 1.22) per risk allele. In individuals with established CHD (n = 25,163), there were 4,436 subsequent events providing >99% and 91% power to detect a per-allele HR of 1.19 or 1.10, respectively. The pooled HR for subsequent events was 1.01 (95% confidence interval: 0.97 to 1.06) per risk allele. There was strong evidence of heterogeneity between the effect estimates for first and subsequent events (p value for heterogeneity = 5.6 × 10(-11)). We found no evidence for biases to account for these findings. CONCLUSIONS: Ch9p21 shows differential association with risk of first versus subsequent CHD events. This has implications for genetic risk prediction in patients with established CHD and for mechanistic understanding of how Ch9p21 influences risk of CHD.

Background Psoriasis is a common inflammatory skin disease that has been reported to be associated with obesity. We aimed to investigate a possible causal relationship between body mass index (BMI) and psoriasis. Methods and findings Following a review of published epidemiological evidence of the association between obesity and psoriasis, mendelian randomization (MR) was used to test for a causal relationship with BMI. We used a genetic instrument comprising 97 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with BMI as a proxy for BMI (expected to be much less confounded than measured BMI). One-sample MR was conducted using individual-level data (396,495 individuals) from the UK Biobank and the Nord-Trøndelag Health Study (HUNT), Norway. Two-sample MR was performed with summary-level data (356,926 individuals) from published BMI and psoriasis genome-wide association studies (GWASs). The one-sample and two-sample MR estimates were meta-analysed using a fixed-effect model. To test for a potential reverse causal effect, MR analysis with genetic instruments comprising variants from recent genome-wide analyses for psoriasis were used to test whether genetic risk for this skin disease has a causal effect on BMI. Published observational data showed an association of higher BMI with psoriasis. A mean difference in BMI of 1.26 kg/m2 (95% CI 1.02–1.51) between psoriasis cases and controls was observed in adults, while a 1.55 kg/m2 mean difference (95% CI 1.13–1.98) was observed in children. The observational association was confirmed in UK Biobank and HUNT data sets. Overall, a 1 kg/m2 increase in BMI was associated with 4% higher odds of psoriasis (meta-analysis odds ratio [OR] = 1.04; 95% CI 1.03–1.04; P = 1.73 × 10−60). MR analyses provided evidence that higher BMI causally increases the odds of psoriasis (by 9% per 1 unit increase in BMI; OR = 1.09 (1.06–1.12) per 1 kg/m2; P = 4.67 × 10−9). In contrast, MR estimates gave little support to a possible causal effect of psoriasis genetic risk on BMI (0.004 kg/m2 change in BMI per doubling odds of psoriasis (−0.003 to 0.011). Limitations of our study include possible misreporting of psoriasis by patients, as well as potential misdiagnosis by clinicians. In addition, there is also limited ethnic variation in the cohorts studied. Conclusions Our study, using genetic variants as instrumental variables for BMI, provides evidence that higher BMI leads to a higher risk of psoriasis. This supports the prioritization of therapies and lifestyle interventions aimed at controlling weight for the prevention or treatment of this common skin disease. Mechanistic studies are required to improve understanding of this relationship., In a mendelian randomization study, Ashley Budu-Aggrey and co-workers study the influence of body mass index on psoriasis., Author summary Why was this study done? Psoriasis is a common inflammatory skin disease that has been reported to be associated with obesity. However, the direction of causality has not been established. Understanding the causal relationship could inform the management or prevention of disease. What did the researchers do and find? A mendelian randomization (MR) approach was used to investigate the causal relationship between higher body mass index (BMI) and psoriasis. Our analysis included data for a total of 753,421 individuals from two of the largest population-based studies available as well as published genome-wide association studies (GWASs). We found evidence that higher BMI causally increases the risk of psoriasis, supporting observational reports in previous literature. Conversely, there was no evidence to support a causal effect of psoriasis genetic risk upon BMI. What do these findings mean? Our findings suggest that obesity contributes to the pathogenesis of psoriasis, and highlight possible mechanistic relationships. If our findings regarding genetically influenced BMI can be extended to elevated BMI that is amenable to modification by diet or behavior, then they could carry health implications. Further work will be required to determine the effect of a short-term intervention aimed at reducing BMI upon psoriasis patients after disease onset, ideally within a clinical trial setting.

Background: Differences between mothers who do and do not succeed in breastfeeding are likely to confound associations of lactation with later maternal adiposity.Objective: We compared adiposity and blood pressure (BP) in women randomly assigned to an intervention to promote prolonged and exclusive breastfeeding or usual care.Design: We performed a cluster-randomized trial at 31 hospitals in Belarus in 1996–1997.Results: Of 17,046 women enrolled at delivery, we assessed 11,867 women (69.6%) at 11.5 y postpartum. The prevalence of exclusive breastfeeding ≥3 mo was 44.5% in 6321 women in the intervention group and 7.1% in 5546 women in the control group. At 11.5 y postpartum, mean (±SD) body mass index (BMI; in kg/m2) was 26.5 ± 5.5, the percentage of body fat was 33.6% ± 8.3%, and systolic BP was 124.6 ± 14.6 mm Hg. On intention-to-treat analysis (without imputation) with adjustment for clustering by hospital, mean outcomes were lower in intervention compared with control mothers for BMI (mean difference: −0.27; 95% CI: −0.91, 0.37), body fat (−0.49%; 95% CI: −1.25%, 0.27%), and systolic BP (−0.81 mm Hg; 95% CI: −3.33, 1.71 mm Hg), but effect sizes were small, CIs were wide, and results were attenuated further toward the null after adjustment for baseline characteristics. Results were similar in sensitivity analyses [ie, by using conventional observational analyses disregarding treatment assignment, instrumental variable analyses to estimate the causal effect of breastfeeding, and multiple imputation to account for missing outcome measures (n = 17,046)].Conclusion: In women who initiated breastfeeding, an intervention to promote longer breastfeeding duration did not result in an important lowering of adiposity or BP. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT01561612 and at Current Controlled Trials as ISRCTN37687716.

Objectives\ud \ud To assess associations between the launch of the National Dementia Strategy (NDS) and antipsychotic prescribing in long-term residential care (LTC) in England.\ud \ud Setting and participants \ud \ud Retrospective analysis of prescribing patterns in 616 LTC institutions (31 619 residents) following launch of the NDS, using information from electronic medicines management system.\ud \ud Primary and secondary outcome measures\ud \ud Antipsychotic prescribing point prevalence (PP) for all residents in a cross section of LTC settings over a 4-year period following NDS launch. Secondary outcomes included dosages, length of treatment and use of recommended second-generation antipsychotics (SGAs) versus first-generation antipsychotics (FGAs). Associations between facility-level PP values and institutional characteristics, resident demographics were explored. Variations across geographical areas examined. Prescription net ingredient costs calculated.\ud \ud Results\ud \ud No statistically significant difference was observed in overall prescribing rates over the 4-year period (Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) test p=0.60), and there was no significant shift towards newer SGAs (KS test p=0.32). Dosages were above the maximum indicated in only 1.3% of cases, but duration of prescribing was excessive in 69.7% of cases. Care homes in the highest prescribing quintile were more likely to be located in a deprived area (rate ratio (Q5/Q1) RR=5.89, 95% CI 4.35 to 7.99), registered for dementia (RR=3.38, 95% CI 3.06 to 3.73) and those in the lowest quintile were more likely to be served by a single general practitioner (GP) practice (RR=0.48; 95% CI 0.37 to 0.63); p

OBJECTIVE The causal nature of associations between circulating triglycerides, insulin resistance, and type 2 diabetes is unclear. We aimed to use Mendelian randomization to test the hypothesis that raised circulating triglyceride levels causally influence the risk of type 2 diabetes and raise normal fasting glucose levels and hepatic insulin resistance. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS We tested 10 common genetic variants robustly associated with circulating triglyceride levels against the type 2 diabetes status in 5,637 case and 6,860 control subjects and four continuous outcomes (reflecting glycemia and hepatic insulin resistance) in 8,271 nondiabetic individuals from four studies. RESULTS Individuals carrying greater numbers of triglyceride-raising alleles had increased circulating triglyceride levels (SD 0.59 [95% CI 0.52–0.65] difference between the 20% of individuals with the most alleles and the 20% with the fewest alleles). There was no evidence that the carriers of greater numbers of triglyceride-raising alleles were at increased risk of type 2 diabetes (per weighted allele odds ratio [OR] 0.99 [95% CI 0.97–1.01]; P = 0.26). In nondiabetic individuals, there was no evidence that carriers of greater numbers of triglyceride-raising alleles had increased fasting insulin levels (SD 0.00 per weighted allele [95% CI −0.01 to 0.02]; P = 0.72) or increased fasting glucose levels (0.00 [−0.01 to 0.01]; P = 0.88). Instrumental variable analyses confirmed that genetically raised circulating triglyceride levels were not associated with increased diabetes risk, fasting glucose, or fasting insulin and, for diabetes, showed a trend toward a protective association (OR per 1-SD increase in log10 triglycerides: 0.61 [95% CI 0.45–0.83]; P = 0.002). CONCLUSIONS Genetically raised circulating triglyceride levels do not increase the risk of type 2 diabetes or raise fasting glucose or fasting insulin levels in nondiabetic individuals. One explanation for our results is that raised circulating triglycerides are predominantly secondary to the diabetes disease process rather than causal.

ImportanceNeonates born to overweight or obese women are larger and at higher risk of birth complications. Many maternal obesity-related traits are observationally associated with birth weight, but the causal nature of these associations is uncertain.ObjectiveTo test for genetic evidence of causal associations of maternal body mass index (BMI) and related traits with birth weight.Design, Setting, and ParticipantsMendelian randomization to test whether maternal BMI and obesity-related traits are potentially causally related to offspring birth weight. Data from 30 487 women in 18 studies were analyzed. Participants were of European ancestry from population- or community-based studies in Europe, North America, or Australia and were part of the Early Growth Genetics Consortium. Live, term, singleton offspring born between 1929 and 2013 were included.ExposuresGenetic scores for BMI, fasting glucose level, type 2 diabetes, systolic blood pressure (SBP), triglyceride level, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) level, vitamin D status, and adiponectin level.Main Outcome and MeasureOffspring birth weight from 18 studies.ResultsAmong the 30 487 newborns the mean birth weight in the various cohorts ranged from 3325 g to 3679 g. The maternal genetic score for BMI was associated with a 2-g (95% CI, 0 to 3 g) higher offspring birth weight per maternal BMI-raising allele (P = .008). The maternal genetic scores for fasting glucose and SBP were also associated with birth weight with effect sizes of 8 g (95% CI, 6 to 10 g) per glucose-raising allele (P = 7 × 10−14) and −4 g (95% CI, −6 to −2g) per SBP-raising allele (P = 1×10−5), respectively. A 1-SD ( ≈ 4 points) genetically higher maternal BMI was associated with a 55-g higher offspring birth weight (95% CI, 17 to 93 g). A 1-SD ( ≈ 7.2 mg/dL) genetically higher maternal fasting glucose concentration was associated with 114-g higher offspring birth weight (95% CI, 80 to 147 g). However, a 1-SD ( ≈ 10 mm Hg) genetically higher maternal SBP was associated with a 208-g lower offspring birth weight (95% CI, −394 to −21 g). For BMI and fasting glucose, genetic associations were consistent with the observational associations, but for systolic blood pressure, the genetic and observational associations were in opposite directions.Conclusions and RelevanceIn this mendelian randomization study, genetically elevated maternal BMI and blood glucose levels were potentially causally associated with higher offspring birth weight, whereas genetically elevated maternal SBP was potentially causally related to lower birth weight. If replicated, these findings may have implications for counseling and managing pregnancies to avoid adverse weight-related birth outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Gestational weight gain (GWG) is associated with a range of health outcomes, but little is known about the factors that influence it. OBJECTIVE: The objective was to test the hypothesis that maternal and fetal genetic variants that are reliably associated with adiposity are associated with GWG. DESIGN: We examined the association of a risk allele score by using 4 adiposity-related single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs; rs9939609 in FTO, rs17782313 near MC4R, rs6548238 near TMEM18, and rs10938397 near GNPDA2) with GWG in a pregnancy cohort in which women had detailed repeated assessment of GWG (median number of weight measurements: 10; interquartile range: 8, 11). The numbers included in our analyses varied between 2324 and 7563 for different variant-outcome analyses. A linear spline random-effects model was used to model weight change with gestational age and to relate genetic variants to this. This modeling confirmed 3 distinct periods of GWG: 0-18, 19-28, and ≥29 wk of gestation. RESULTS: Maternal risk allele score and SNPs in FTO, MC4R, and TMEM18 were positively associated with prepregnancy weight. Maternal allele score was inversely associated with GWG in the first 18 wk of pregnancy (-14.46 g/wk per allele; 95% CI: -24.75, -4.17 g/wk per allele) but was not associated with other periods of GWG. Offspring allele score and maternal and offspring individual SNPs were not associated with GWG in any period or with birth weight or postnatal weight retention. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that neither maternal nor fetal adiposity-related genetic variants are associated with greater GWG. The inverse association of maternal allele score with GWG in the first 18 wk requires replication.

OBJECTIVE: We used genetic variants that are robustly associated with adiposity to examine the causal association of adiposity with psychological distress. METHODS: We examined the association of adiposity with psychological distress in a large (N = 53,221) general population cohort of 20- to 99-year-old adults from Copenhagen, Denmark. Psychological distress was assessed using four questions that asked about: feeling stressed; not accomplishing very much; wanting to give up; and regular use of antidepressants/sedatives. We used the genetic loci FTO rs9939609 and MC4R rs17782313 as instrumental variables for adiposity quantified by body mass index (BMI) and waist to hip ratio (WHR). RESULTS: In conventional multivariable analyses, BMI and WHR were positively associated with distress. For example, the odds ratio of reporting not accomplishing for each additional standard deviation increase for BMI was 1.11 (95% CI: 1.09, 1.13) and for WHR was 1.10 (95% CI: 1.08, 1.13) in the fully adjusted analyses. In contrast, instrumental variable analyses showed an inverse association of adiposity on distress; corresponding odds ratio in instrumental variable analyses was 0.64 (95% CI: 0.46, 0.89) for BMI and 0.49 (95% CI: 0.25, 0.94) for WHR (P-values for difference between the two approaches both = 0.001). CONCLUSION: The inverse associations of adiposity and psychological distress when genetic variants are used as instrumental variables could be explained by biological pathways linking adiposity and distress. The positive associations of adiposity with distress in multivariable analyses might be explained by residual confounding or reverse causality.

Leukotrienes are implicated in the pathogenesis of coronary artery disease. Recently two haplotypes (HapA and HapB) in the gene encoding ALOX5AP (arachidonate 5-lipoxygenase-activating protein), the main regulator of 5-lipoxygenase, have been associated with a doubling of the risk of myocardial infarction. Studies have also shown that treatment with a leukotriene inhibitor reduces biomarkers of coronary risk in patients carrying HapA, raising the possibility of developing genotype-specific therapy. In the present study, we examined whether carriage of HapA or HapB is associated with increased LTB(4) (leukotriene B(4)) production in healthy subjects. Age- and gender-matched healthy HapA carriers (n=21), HapB carriers (n=20) and non-A/non-B carriers (n=18), with no reported history of cardiovascular disease, were recruited following DNA screening of 1268 subjects from a population-based study. Blood neutrophils were isolated, and LTB(4) production was measured in response to stimulation with 1 mumol/l of the calcium ionophore A23187. There was no difference in the mean level for LTB(4) production in the three groups (non-A/non-B, 24.9+/-8.3 ng/10(6) cells; HapA, 22.2+/-11.9 ng/10(6) cells; HapB, 19.8+/-4.8 ng/10(6); P=0.14). The findings indicate that if either the HapA or the HapB haplotype of ALOX5AP indeed increases cardiovascular risk, then the mechanism is not simply due to a systematically observable effect of the haplotype on LTB(4) production in response to stimulation. The results suggest that knowledge of a patient's haplotype may not provide useful information on the probable clinical response to ALOX5AP inhibitors.

We aimed to investigate the causal effect of circulating uric acid concentrations on type 2 diabetes risk. A Mendelian randomization study was performed using a genetic score with 24 uric acid–associated loci. We used data of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-InterAct case-cohort study, comprising 24,265 individuals of European ancestry from eight European countries. During a mean (SD) follow-up of 10 (4) years, 10,576 verified incident case subjects with type 2 diabetes were ascertained. Higher uric acid was associated with a higher diabetes risk after adjustment for confounders, with a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.20 (95% CI 1.11, 1.30) per 59.48 µmol/L (1 mg/dL) uric acid. The genetic score raised uric acid by 17 µmol/L (95% CI 15, 18) per SD increase and explained 4% of uric acid variation. By using the genetic score to estimate the unconfounded effect, we found that a 59.48 µmol/L higher uric acid concentration did not have a causal effect on diabetes (HR 1.01 [95% CI 0.87, 1.16]). Including data from the Diabetes Genetics Replication And Meta-analysis (DIAGRAM) consortium, increasing our dataset to 41,508 case subjects with diabetes, the summary odds ratio estimate was 0.99 (95% CI 0.92, 1.06). In conclusion, our study does not support a causal effect of circulating uric acid on diabetes risk. Uric acid–lowering therapies may therefore not be beneficial in reducing diabetes risk.

Background— The duration and exclusivity of breastfeeding in infancy have been inversely associated with future cardiometabolic risk. We investigated the effects of an experimental intervention to promote increased duration of exclusive breastfeeding on cardiometabolic risk factors in childhood. Methods and Results— We followed-up children in the Promotion of Breastfeeding Intervention Trial, a cluster-randomized trial of a breastfeeding promotion intervention based on the World Health Organization/United Nations Children’s Fund Baby-Friendly Hospital Initiative. In 1996 to 1997, 17 046 breastfeeding mother-infant pairs were enrolled from 31 Belarusian maternity hospitals and affiliated polyclinics (16 intervention versus 15 control sites); 13 879 (81.4%) children were followed up at 11.5 years, with 13 616 (79.9%) who had fasted and did not have diabetes mellitus. The outcomes were blood pressure; fasting insulin, adiponectin, glucose, and apolipoprotein A1; and the presence of metabolic syndrome. Analysis was by intention to treat, accounting for clustering within hospitals/clinics. The intervention substantially increased breastfeeding duration and exclusivity in comparison with the control arm (43% versus 6% and 7.9% versus 0.6% exclusively breastfed at 3 and 6 months, respectively). Cluster-adjusted mean differences at 11.5 years between experimental versus control groups were as follows: 1.0 mm Hg (95% confidence interval, −1.1 to 3.1) for systolic and 0.8 mm Hg (−0.6 to 2.3) for diastolic blood pressure; −0.1 mmol/L (−0.2 to 0.1) for glucose; 8% (−3% to 34%) for insulin; −0.3 μg/mL (−1.5 to 0.9) for adiponectin; and 0.0 g/L (−0.1 to 0.1) for apolipoprotein A1. The cluster-adjusted odds ratio for metabolic syndrome, comparing experimental versus control groups, was 1.21 (0.85 to 1.72). Conclusions— An intervention to improve breastfeeding duration and exclusivity among healthy term infants did not influence cardiometabolic risk factors in childhood. Clinical Trial Registration— Current Controlled Trials: ISRCTN37687716 ( http://www.controlled-trials.com/ISRCTN37687716 ). URL: http://clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier: NCT01561612.

Objectives:\ud This study sought to investigate the role of secretory phospholipase A2 (sPLA2)-IIA in cardiovascular disease.\ud \ud Background:\ud Higher circulating levels of sPLA2-IIA mass or sPLA2 enzyme activity have been associated with increased risk of cardiovascular events. However, it is not clear if this association is causal. A recent phase III clinical trial of an sPLA2 inhibitor (varespladib) was stopped prematurely for lack of efficacy.\ud \ud Methods:\ud We conducted a Mendelian randomization meta-analysis of 19 general population studies (8,021 incident, 7,513 prevalent major vascular events [MVE] in 74,683 individuals) and 10 acute coronary syndrome (ACS) cohorts (2,520 recurrent MVE in 18,355 individuals) using rs11573156, a variant in PLA2G2A encoding the sPLA2-IIA isoenzyme, as an instrumental variable.\ud \ud Results:\ud PLA2G2A rs11573156 C allele associated with lower circulating sPLA2-IIA mass (38% to 44%) and sPLA2 enzyme activity (3% to 23%) per C allele. The odds ratio (OR) for MVE per rs11573156 C allele was 1.02 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.98 to 1.06) in general populations and 0.96 (95% CI: 0.90 to 1.03) in ACS cohorts. In the general population studies, the OR derived from the genetic instrumental variable analysis for MVE for a 1-log unit lower sPLA2-IIA mass was 1.04 (95% CI: 0.96 to 1.13), and differed from the non-genetic observational estimate (OR: 0.69; 95% CI: 0.61 to 0.79). In the ACS cohorts, both the genetic instrumental variable and observational ORs showed a null association with MVE. Instrumental variable analysis failed to show associations between sPLA2 enzyme activity and MVE.\ud \ud Conclusions:\ud Reducing sPLA2-IIA mass is unlikely to be a useful therapeutic goal for preventing cardiovascular events.

Objectives: To assess the associations between both uric acid levels and hyperuricaemia, with ischaemic heart disease and blood pressure, and to explore the potentially confounding role of body mass index.\ud Design: Mendelian randomisation analysis, using variation at specific genes (SLC2A9 (rs7442295) as an instrument for uric acid; and FTO (rs9939609), MC4R (rs17782313), and TMEM18 (rs6548238) for body mass index).\ud Setting: Two large, prospective cohort studies in Denmark.\ud Participants: We measured levels of uric acid and related covariables in 58 072 participants from the Copenhagen General Population Study and 10 602 from the Copenhagen City Heart Study, comprising 4890 and 2282 cases of ischaemic heart disease, respectively.\ud Main outcome: Blood pressure and prospectively assessed ischaemic heart disease.\ud Results: Estimates confirmed known observational associations between plasma uric acid and hyperuricaemia with risk of ischaemic heart disease and diastolic and systolic blood pressure. However, when using genotypic instruments for uric acid and hyperuricaemia, we saw no evidence for causal associations between uric acid, ischaemic heart disease, and blood pressure. We used genetic instruments to investigate body mass index as a potentially confounding factor in observational associations, and saw a causal effect on uric acid levels. Every four unit increase of body mass index saw a rise in uric acid of 0.03 mmol/L (95% confidence interval 0.02 to 0.04), and an increase in risk of hyperuricaemia of 7.5% (3.9% to 11.1%).\ud Conclusion: By contrast with observational findings, there is no strong evidence for causal associations between uric acid and ischaemic heart disease or blood pressure. However, evidence supports a causal effect between body mass index and uric acid level and hyperuricaemia. This finding strongly suggests body mass index as a confounder in observational associations, and suggests a role for elevated body mass index or obesity in the development of uric acid related conditions.

Kari Tikkinen*, Hamilton, Canada; Rufus Cartwright, London, United Kingdom; Anna Kirby, San Diego, CA; Altaf Mangera, Sheffield, United Kingdom; Gans Thiagamoorthy, London, United Kingdom; Prabhakar Rajan, Glasgow, United Kingdom; Jori Pesonen, Tampere, Finland; Tom Palmer, Bristol, United Kingdom; Chris Ambrose, Vik Khullar, Andrew Walley, Marjo-Riitta Jarvelin, Phillip Bennett, London, United Kingdom; Chris Chapple, Sheffield, United Kingdom

Anna Kirby*, San Diego, CA; Rufus Cartwright, London, United Kingdom; Kari Tikkinen, Hamilton, Canada; Tom Palmer, Bristol, United Kingdom; Gans Thiagamoorthy, London, United Kingdom; Prabhakar Rajan, Glasgow, United Kingdom; Jori Pesonen, Tampere, Finland; Andrew Walley, London, United Kingdom; Altaf Mangera, Sheffield, United Kingdom; Georgios Grigoriadis, Chris Ambrose, Marjo-Riitta Jarvelin, Phillip Bennett, London, United Kingdom; Chris Chapple, Sheffield, United Kingdom; Vik Khullar, London, United Kingdom

Importance Evidence that longer-term and exclusive breastfeeding reduces child obesity risk is based on observational studies that are prone to confounding. Objective To investigate effects of an intervention to promote increased duration and exclusivity of breastfeeding on child adiposity and circulating insulin-like growth factor (IGF)-I, which regulates growth. Design, Setting, and Participants Cluster-randomized controlled trial in 31 Belarusian maternity hospitals and their affiliated clinics, randomized into 1 of 2 groups: breastfeeding promotion intervention (n = 16) or usual practices (n = 15). Participants were 17 046 breastfeeding mother-infant pairs enrolled in 1996 and 1997, of whom 13 879 (81.4%) were followed up between January 2008 and December 2010 at a median age of 11.5 years. Intervention Breastfeeding promotion intervention modeled on the WHO/UNICEF Baby-Friendly Hospital Initiative (World Health Organization/United Nations Children's Fund). Main Outcome Measures Body mass index (BMI), fat and fat-free mass indices (FMI and FFMI), percent body fat, waist circumference, triceps and subscapular skinfold thicknesses, overweight and obesity, and whole-blood IGF-I. Primary analysis was based on modified intention-to-treat (without imputation), accounting for clustering within hospitals and clinics. Results The experimental intervention substantially increased breastfeeding duration and exclusivity when compared with the control (43% vs 6% exclusively breastfed at 3 months and 7.9% vs 0.6% at 6 months). Cluster-adjusted mean differences in outcomes at 11.5 years of age between experimental vs control groups were: 0.19 (95% CI, −0.09 to 0.46) for BMI; 0.12 (−0.03 to 0.28) for FMI; 0.04 (−0.11 to 0.18) for FFMI; 0.47% (−0.11% to 1.05%) for percent body fat; 0.30 cm (−1.41 to 2.01) for waist circumference; −0.07 mm (−1.71 to 1.57) for triceps and −0.02 mm (−0.79 to 0.75) for subscapular skinfold thicknesses; and −0.02 standard deviations (−0.12 to 0.08) for IGF-I. The cluster-adjusted odds ratio for overweight/obesity (BMI ≥85th vs Conclusions and Relevance Among healthy term infants in Belarus, an intervention that succeeded in improving the duration and exclusivity of breastfeeding did not prevent overweight or obesity, nor did it affect IGF-I levels at age 11.5 years. Breastfeeding has many advantages but population strategies to increase the duration and exclusivity of breastfeeding are unlikely to curb the obesity epidemic. Trial Registration isrctn.org: ISRCTN37687716; and clinicaltrials.gov: NCT01561612

Vitamin D deficiency has been associated with several common diseases, including cancer and is being investigated as a possible risk factor for these conditions. We reported the striking prevalence of vitamin D deficiency in Scotland. Previous epidemiological studies have reported an association between low dietary vitamin D and colorectal cancer (CRC). Using a case-control study design, we tested the association between plasma 25-hydroxy-vitamin D (25-OHD) and CRC (2,001 cases, 2,237 controls). To determine whether plasma 25-OHD levels are causally linked to CRC risk, we applied the control function instrumental variable (IV) method of the mendelian randomization (MR) approach using four single nucleotide polymorphisms (rs2282679, rs12785878, rs10741657, rs6013897) previously shown to be associated with plasma 25-OHD. Low plasma 25-OHD levels were associated with CRC risk in the crude model (odds ratio (OR): 0.76, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.71, 0.81, p: 1.4×10(-14)) and after adjusting for age, sex and other confounding factors. Using an allele score that combined all four SNPs as the IV, the estimated causal effect was OR 1.16 (95% CI 0.60, 2.23), whilst it was 0.94 (95% CI 0.46, 1.91) and 0.93 (0.53, 1.63) when using an upstream (rs12785878, rs10741657) and a downstream allele score (rs2282679, rs6013897), respectively. 25-OHD levels were inversely associated with CRC risk, in agreement with recent meta-analyses. The fact that this finding was not replicated when the MR approach was employed might be due to weak instruments, giving low power to demonstrate an effect (

Observational studies suggest that obese men have a lower risk of incident prostate cancer, but an increased risk of advanced and fatal cancers. These observations could be due to confounding, detection bias, or a biological effect of obesity. Genetic studies are less susceptible to confounding than observational epidemiology and can suggest how associations between phenotypes (such as obesity) and diseases arise. To determine whether the associations between obesity and prostate cancer are causal, we conducted a genetic association study of the relationship between a single nucleotide polymorphism known to be associated with obesity (FTO rs9939609) and prostate cancer. Data are from a population-based sample of 1550 screen-detected prostate cancers, 1815 age- and general practice matched controls with unrestricted prostate specific antigen (PSA) values and 1175 low-PSA controls (PSA

WNK1 gene variants have been associated with adult blood pressure. We aimed to investigate relationships between WNK1 variants and blood pressure, as well as blood pressure change with age, in a longitudinal childhood study. Associations between single nucleotide polymorphisms in WNK1 and blood pressure and the rate of blood pressure change between 7 and 11 years were examined in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parent and Children Study (n=5326 for systolic blood pressure at 11 years). We observed associations ( P P =0.0054). No associations were shown with the systolic blood pressure gradient. At age 11 years, 30 polymorphisms showed association ( P P WNK1 variants are associated with diastolic blood pressure gradient from 7 to 11 years and with systolic blood pressure at 11 years. Our study suggests that previously reported effects of WNK1 variants on blood pressure are mediated via effects on the gradient of blood pressure change with age.

Outcome analysis has shown that the center of excellence concept, in which all of a specific type of surgery is done by 1 surgeon rather than by multiple surgeons in a group, provides superior outcomes for total joint replacement, radical cancer and heart valve surgery. We compared penile prosthesis implantation outcomes between the center of excellence and multiple surgeon approaches in a large, single specialty urological surgical practice.Between February 2001 and August 2004 a total of 57 penile prostheses were implanted by 10 surgeons at a large urology practice (multiple surgeon group). Between July 2004 and April 2005 a total of 57 penile prostheses were placed by a single surgeon (center of excellence group). Chart review of the 2 patient groups was performed.The patient groups showed no statistical differences in age, race, cause of impotence or percent with diabetes. The median cylinder length of prostheses placed by the center of excellence surgeon was 2 cm greater than the length of the cylinders placed by the multiple surgeon team (p0.0001). Excluding cases requiring additional procedures the median placement time was considerably shorter for the center of excellence surgeon than for the multiple surgeon team (34 vs 94 minutes, p0.0001). There were 8 iatrogenic failures (infection, erosion and poor positioning) requiring surgical removal in the multiple surgeon group but none in the COE group (p0.05). Although followup for the multiple surgeon team was longer, Kaplan-Meier revision-free survival curves showed significantly longer survival for the center of excellence group (log rank test p = 0.0283).The center of excellence concept in penile prosthesis surgery appears to deliver superior surgical outcomes in terms of shorter operative time, longer cylinders and fewer iatrogenic complications.

The genes responsible for several monogenic hypertensive and hypotensive disorders have been identified. Our aim was to evaluate whether common variants in these genes affect blood pressure in the general population. We studied 2037 adults from 520 nuclear families characterized for 24-hour ambulatory blood pressure and related cardiovascular traits. We genotyped 298 tagging and putative functional single nucleotide polymorphisms, achieving a median coverage of 82.4% across 11 candidate loci. Five polymorphisms in the KCNJ1 gene coding for the potassium channel, ROMK, showed associations with mean 24-hour systolic or diastolic blood pressure. The strongest association was with an intronic polymorphism, rs2846679, where the minor allele (frequency 16%) was associated with a −1.58 (95% CI −2.47 to −0.69) mm Hg change in mean 24-hour systolic blood pressure, after accounting for age, sex, and familial correlations ( P =0.00048). Polymorphisms in the gene were also associated with clinic blood pressure and left ventricular mass as assessed by ECG Sokolow-Lyon voltage ( P =0.0081 for rs675759). Associations with mean 24-hour systolic or diastolic blood pressure were also observed for variants in CASR , NR3C2 , SCNN1B , and SCNN1G . The findings show that common variants in genes responsible for some Mendelian disorders of hypertension and hypotension affect blood pressure in the general population. Notably, variants in KCNJ1 , which causes Bartter syndrome type 2, were strongly associated, potentially providing a novel target for intervention.

Background: Few studies have prospectively investigated whether early-life exposures are associated with pre-adolescent eating attitudes. Objective: The objective of this study is to prospectively investigate associations of parental smoking, alcohol use, marital status, measures of maternal satisfaction, self-reported parental body mass index (BMI) and clinically measured childhood BMI, assessed between birth and 6.5 years, with problematic eating attitudes at 11.5 years. Methods: Observational cohort analysis nested within the Promotion of Breastfeeding Intervention Trial, a cluster-randomised trial conducted in 31 maternity hospitals and affiliated polyclinics in Belarus. Our primary outcome was a Children’s Eating Attitudes Test (ChEAT) score ⩾22.5 (85th percentile), an indicator of problematic eating attitudes. We employed multivariable mixed logistic regression models, which allow inference at the individual level. We also performed instrumental variable (IV) analysis using parents’ BMIs as instruments for the child’s BMI, to assess whether associations could be explained by residual confounding or reverse causation. Subjects: Of the 17 046 infants enrolled between 1996 and 1997 across Belarus, 13 751 (80.7%) completed the ChEAT test at 11.5 years. Results: In fully adjusted models, overweight children at age 6.5 years had a 2.14-fold (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.82, 2.52) increased odds of having ChEAT scores ⩾85th percentile at age 11.5 years, and those who were obese had a 3.89-fold (95% CI: 2.95, 5.14) increased odds compared with normal-weight children. Children of mothers or fathers who were themselves overweight or obese were more likely to score ⩾85th percentile (P for trend ⩽0.001). IV analysis was consistent with a child’s BMI causally affecting future eating attitudes. There was little evidence that parental smoking, alcohol use, or marital status or maternal satisfaction were associated with eating attitudes. Conclusion: In our large, prospective cohort in Belarus, both parental and childhood overweight and obesity at 6.5 years were associated with pre-adolescent problematic eating attitudes 5 years later.