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Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text., Background: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with substantial morbidity, especially when it goes undetected. If new-onset AF could be predicted, targeted screening could be used to find it early. We hypothesized that a deep neural network could predict new-onset AF from the resting 12-lead ECG and that this prediction may help identify those at risk of AF-related stroke. Methods: We used 1.6 M resting 12-lead digital ECG traces from 430 000 patients collected from 1984 to 2019. Deep neural networks were trained to predict new-onset AF (within 1 year) in patients without a history of AF. Performance was evaluated using areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve and precision-recall curve. We performed an incidence-free survival analysis for a period of 30 years following the ECG stratified by model predictions. To simulate real-world deployment, we trained a separate model using all ECGs before 2010 and evaluated model performance on a test set of ECGs from 2010 through 2014 that were linked to our stroke registry. We identified the patients at risk for AF-related stroke among those predicted to be high risk for AF by the model at different prediction thresholds. Results: The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and area under the precision-recall curve were 0.85 and 0.22, respectively, for predicting new-onset AF within 1 year of an ECG. The hazard ratio for the predicted high- versus low-risk groups over a 30-year span was 7.2 (95% CI, 6.9–7.6). In a simulated deployment scenario, the model predicted new-onset AF at 1 year with a sensitivity of 69% and specificity of 81%. The number needed to screen to find 1 new case of AF was 9. This model predicted patients at high risk for new-onset AF in 62% of all patients who experienced an AF-related stroke within 3 years of the index ECG. Conclusions: Deep learning can predict new-onset AF from the 12-lead ECG in patients with no previous history of AF. This prediction may help identify patients at risk for AF-related strokes.

Background: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with stroke, especially when AF goes undetected. Deep neural networks (DNN) can predict incident AF from a 12-lead resting ECG. We hypothesize that use of a DNN to predict new onset AF from an ECG may identify patients at risk of sustaining a potentially preventable AF-related stroke. Methods: We trained a DNN model to predict new-onset AF using 382,604 ECGs prior to 2010. We then evaluated the model performance on a test set of ECGs from 2010 through 2014 linked to patients in an institutional stroke registry. There were 181,969 patients in the test set with at least one ECG and no prior history of AF. Of those patients 3,497 (1.9%) had a stroke following an ECG that did not show AF. Within the set of patients with stroke, 375 had the stroke within 3 years of the ECG and were diagnosed with new AF between -3 and 365 days of the stroke. We considered these potentially preventable AF-related strokes. We report the sensitivity and positive predictive value (PPV) of the model for appropriately risk stratifying these 375 patients who sustained a potentially preventable AF-related stroke. Results: We used F β scores to identify different risk prediction thresholds (operating points) for the model. Operating points chosen by F 0.5 , F 1 , and F 2 scores identified 4, 12, and 21% of the population as high risk for the development of AF within 1 year (Figure 1). Screening 1, 4, 12, and 21% of the overall population resulted in PPV of 28, 21, 15, and 12%, respectively, for identification of new onset AF in one year. Using those same thresholds yielded sensitivities of 4, 17, 45, and 62% for identifying potentially preventable AF-related strokes. The different risk prediction thresholds resulted in a low (120-162) number needed to screen to detect one potentially preventable AF-related stroke at 3 years. Conclusions: Use of a deep learning model to predict new onset AF may identify patients at high risk of sustaining a potentially preventable AF-related stroke.

BackgroundAtrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with substantial morbidity, especially when it goes undetected. If new onset AF could be predicted, targeted population screening could be used to find it early. We hypothesized that a deep neural network could predict new onset AF from the resting 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG) and that this prediction may help prevent AF-related stroke.MethodsWe used 1.6M resting 12-lead ECG voltage-time traces from 430k patients collected from 1984-2019 in this study. Deep neural networks were trained to predict new onset AF (within 1 year) in patients without a history of AF. Performance was evaluated using areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and precision-recall curve (AUPRC). We performed an incidence-free survival analysis for a period of 30 years following the ECG stratified by model predictions. To simulate real-world deployment, we trained a separate model using all ECGs prior to 2010 and evaluated model performance on a test set of ECGs from 2010 through 2014 that were linked to our stroke registry. We used standard metrics to explore different prediction thresholds for the model and also calculated how many AF-related strokes might be potentially prevented.ResultsThe AUROC and AUPRC were 0.83 and 0.21, respectively, for predicting new onset AF within 1 year of an ECG. Adding age and sex improved the AUROC to 0.85 and the AUPRC to 0.23. The hazard ratio for the predicted high- vs. low-risk groups over a 30-year span was 7.2 [95% confidence interval: 6.9 – 7.6]. In a simulated deployment scenario, using the F2 score to select the risk prediction threshold, the model predicted new onset AF at 1 year with a sensitivity of 69%, specificity of 81%, and positive predictive value (PPV) of 12%. This model correctly predicted new onset AF in 62% of all patients that experienced an AF-related stroke within 3 years of the ECG.ConclusionsDeep learning can predict new onset AF from the 12-lead ECG in patients with no prior history of AF. This prediction may prove useful in preventing AF-related strokes.

The electrocardiogram (ECG) is a widely used medical test, consisting of voltage versus time traces collected from surface recordings over the heart1. Here we hypothesized that a deep neural network (DNN) can predict an important future clinical event, 1-year all-cause mortality, from ECG voltage–time traces. By using ECGs collected over a 34-year period in a large regional health system, we trained a DNN with 1,169,662 12-lead resting ECGs obtained from 253,397 patients, in which 99,371 events occurred. The model achieved an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.88 on a held-out test set of 168,914 patients, in which 14,207 events occurred. Even within the large subset of patients (n = 45,285) with ECGs interpreted as ‘normal’ by a physician, the performance of the model in predicting 1-year mortality remained high (AUC = 0.85). A blinded survey of cardiologists demonstrated that many of the discriminating features of these normal ECGs were not apparent to expert reviewers. Finally, a Cox proportional-hazard model revealed a hazard ratio of 9.5 (P

Increased clinical use of chest high-resolution computed tomography results in increased identification of lung adenocarcinomas and persistent subsolid opacities. However, these lesions range from very indolent to extremely aggressive tumors. Clinically relevant diagnostic tools to noninvasively risk stratify and guide individualized management of these lesions are lacking. Research efforts investigating semiquantitative measures to decrease interrater and intrarater variability are emerging, and in some cases steps have been taken to automate this process. However, many such methods currently are still suboptimal, require validation and are not yet clinically applicable. The computer-aided nodule assessment and risk yield software application represents a validated tool for the automated, quantitative, and noninvasive tool for risk stratification of adenocarcinoma lung nodules. Computer-aided nodule assessment and risk yield correlates well with consensus histology and postsurgical patient outcomes, and therefore may help to guide individualized patient management, for example, in identification of nodules amenable to radiological surveillance, or in need of adjunctive therapy.

Rationale: Screening for lung cancer using low-dose computed tomography (CT) reduces lung cancer mortality. However, in addition to a high rate of benign nodules, lung cancer screening detects a large number of indolent cancers that generally belong to the adenocarcinoma spectrum. Individualized management of screen-detected adenocarcinomas would be facilitated by noninvasive risk stratification.Objectives: To validate that Computer-Aided Nodule Assessment and Risk Yield (CANARY), a novel image analysis software, successfully risk stratifies screen-detected lung adenocarcinomas based on clinical disease outcomes.Methods: We identified retrospective 294 eligible patients diagnosed with lung adenocarcinoma spectrum lesions in the low-dose CT arm of the National Lung Screening Trial. The last low-dose CT scan before the diagnosis of lung adenocarcinoma was analyzed using CANARY blinded to clinical data. Based on their parametric CANARY signatures, all the lung adenocarcinoma nodules were risk stratified into...

Pulmonary nodules are commonly detected in computed tomography (CT) chest screening of a high-risk population. The specific visual or quantitative features on CT or other modalities can be used to characterize the likelihood that a nodule is benign or malignant. Visual features on CT such as size, attenuation, location, morphology, edge characteristics, and other distinctive "signs" can be highly suggestive of a specific diagnosis and, in general, be used to determine the probability that a specific nodule is benign or malignant. Change in size, attenuation, and morphology on serial follow-up CT, or features on other modalities such as nuclear medicine studies or MRI, can also contribute to the characterization of lung nodules. Imaging analytics can objectively and reproducibly quantify nodule features on CT, nuclear medicine, and magnetic resonance imaging. Some quantitative techniques show great promise in helping to differentiate benign from malignant lesions or to stratify the risk of aggressive versus indolent neoplasm. In this article, we (1) summarize the visual characteristics, descriptors, and signs that may be helpful in management of nodules identified on screening CT, (2) discuss current quantitative and multimodality techniques that aid in the differentiation of nodules, and (3) highlight the power, pitfalls, and limitations of these various techniques.

PURPOSE Fibrotic interstitial lung diseases presenting with nonspecific and overlapping radiologic findings may be difficult to diagnose without surgical biopsy. We hypothesized that baseline quantifiable radiologic features and their short-term interval change may be predictive of underlying histologic diagnosis as well as long-term survival in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) presenting without honeycombing versus nonspecific interstitial pneumonia (NSIP). MATERIALS AND METHODS Forty biopsy-confirmed IPF and 20 biopsy-confirmed NSIP patients with available high-resolution chest computed tomography 4 to 24 months apart were studied. CALIPER software was used for the automated characterization and quantification of radiologic findings. RESULTS IPF subjects were older (66 vs. 48; P

High-resolution chest computed tomography (HRCT) is essential in the characterization of interstitial lung disease. The HRCT features of some diseases can be diagnostic. Longitudinal monitoring with HRCT can assess progression of interstitial lung disease; however, subtle changes in the volume and character of abnormalities can be difficult to assess. Accuracy of diagnosis can be dependent on expertise and experience of the radiologist, pathologist, or clinician. Quantitative analysis of thoracic HRCT has the potential to determine the extent of disease reproducibly, classify the types of abnormalities, and automate the diagnostic process.Novel software that utilizes histogram signatures to characterize pulmonary parenchyma was used to analyze chest HRCT data, including retrospective processing of clinical CT scans and research data from the Lung Tissue Research Consortium. Additional information including physiological, pathologic, and semiquantitative radiologist assessment was available to allow comparison of quantitative results, with visual estimates of the disease, physiological parameters, and measures of disease outcome.Quantitative analysis results were provided in regional volumetric quantities for statistical analysis and a graphical representation. These results suggest that quantitative HRCT analysis can serve as a biomarker with physiological, pathologic, and prognostic significance.It is likely that quantitative analysis of HRCT can be used in clinical practice as a means to aid in identifying a probable diagnosis, stratifying prognosis in early disease, and consistently determining progression of the disease or response to therapy. Further optimization of quantitative techniques and longitudinal analysis of well-characterized subjects would be helpful in validating these methods.

Accurate assessment of prognosis in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis remains elusive due to significant individual radiological and physiological variability. We hypothesised that short-term radiological changes may be predictive of survival. We explored the use of CALIPER (Computer-Aided Lung Informatics for Pathology Evaluation and Rating), a novel software tool developed by the Biomedical Imaging Resource Laboratory at the Mayo Clinic Rochester (Rochester, MN, USA) for the analysis and quantification of parenchymal lung abnormalities on high-resolution computed tomography. We assessed baseline and follow-up (time-points 1 and 2, respectively) high-resolution computed tomography scans in 55 selected idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis patients and correlated CALIPER-quantified measurements with expert radiologists’ assessments and clinical outcomes. Findings of interval change (mean 289 days) in volume of reticular densities (hazard ratio 1.91, p=0.006), total volume of interstitial abnormalities (hazard ratio 1.70, p=0.003) and per cent total interstitial abnormalities (hazard ratio 1.52, p=0.017) as quantified by CALIPER were predictive of survival after a median follow-up of 2.4 years. Radiologist interpretation of short-term global interstitial lung disease progression, but not specific radiological features, was also predictive of mortality. These data demonstrate the feasibility of quantifying interval short-term changes on high-resolution computed tomography and their possible use as independent predictors of survival in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis. Short-term quantified CT changes are predictive of survival in IPF

IntroductionPulmonary nodules of the adenocarcinoma spectrum are characterized by distinctive morphological and radiologic features and variable prognosis. Noninvasive high-resolution computed tomography–based risk stratification tools are needed to individualize their management.MethodsRadiologic measurements of histopathologic tissue invasion were developed in a training set of 54 pulmonary nodules of the adenocarcinoma spectrum and validated in 86 consecutively resected nodules. Nodules were isolated and characterized by computer-aided analysis, and data were analyzed by Spearman correlation, sensitivity, and specificity and the positive and negative predictive values.ResultsComputer-aided nodule assessment and risk yield (CANARY) can noninvasively characterize pulmonary nodules of the adenocarcinoma spectrum. Unsupervised clustering analysis of high-resolution computed tomography data identified nine unique exemplars representing the basic radiologic building blocks of these lesions. The exemplar distribution within each nodule correlated well with the proportion of histologic tissue invasion, Spearman R = 0.87, p < 0.0001 and 0.89 and p < 0.0001 for the training and the validation set, respectively. Clustering of the exemplars in three-dimensional space corresponding to tissue invasion and lepidic growth was used to develop a CANARY decision algorithm that successfully categorized these pulmonary nodules as “aggressive” (invasive adenocarcinoma) or “indolent” (adenocarcinoma in situ and minimally invasive adenocarcinoma). Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of this approach for the detection of aggressive lesions were 95.4, 96.8, 95.4, and 96.8%, respectively, in the training set and 98.7, 63.6, 94.9, and 87.5%, respectively, in the validation set.ConclusionCANARY represents a promising tool to noninvasively risk stratify pulmonary nodules of the adenocarcinoma spectrum.

The aim of the study was to determine whether a novel computed tomography (CT) postprocessing software technique (CALIPER) is superior to visual CT scoring as judged by functional correlations in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF).A total of 283 consecutive patients with IPF had CT parenchymal patterns evaluated quantitatively with CALIPER and by visual scoring. These 2 techniques were evaluated against: forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1), forced vital capacity (FVC), diffusing capacity for carbon monoxide (DLco), carbon monoxide transfer coefficient (Kco), and a composite physiological index (CPI), with regard to extent of interstitial lung disease (ILD), extent of emphysema, and pulmonary vascular abnormalities.CALIPER-derived estimates of ILD extent demonstrated stronger univariate correlations than visual scores for most pulmonary function tests (PFTs): (FEV1: CALIPER R=0.29, visual R=0.18; FVC: CALIPER R=0.41, visual R=0.27; DLco: CALIPER R=0.31, visual R=0.35; CPI: CALIPER R=0.48, visual R=0.44). Correlations between CT measures of emphysema extent and PFTs were weak and did not differ significantly between CALIPER and visual scoring. Intriguingly, the pulmonary vessel volume provided similar correlations to total ILD extent scored by CALIPER for FVC, DLco, and CPI (FVC: R=0.45; DLco: R=0.34; CPI: R=0.53).CALIPER was superior to visual scoring as validated by functional correlations with PFTs. The pulmonary vessel volume, a novel CALIPER CT parameter with no visual scoring equivalent, has the potential to be a CT feature in the assessment of patients with IPF and requires further exploration.

Introduction Lung cancer remains the leading cause of cancer-related deaths in the United States and worldwide. Adenocarcinoma is the most common type of lung cancer and encompasses lesions with widely variable clinical outcomes. In the absence of noninvasive risk stratification, individualized patient management remains challenging. Consequently a subgroup of pulmonary nodules of the lung adenocarcinoma spectrum is likely treated more aggressively than necessary. Methods Consecutive patients with surgically resected pulmonary nodules of the lung adenocarcinoma spectrum (lesion size ⩽3 cm, 2006–2009) and available presurgical high-resolution computed tomography (HRCT) imaging were identified at Mayo Clinic Rochester. All cases were classified using an unbiased Computer-Aided Nodule Assessment and Risk Yield (CANARY) approach based on the quantification of presurgical HRCT characteristics. CANARY-based classification was independently correlated to postsurgical progression-free survival. Results CANARY analysis of 264 consecutive patients identified three distinct subgroups. Independent comparisons of 5-year disease-free survival (DFS) between these subgroups demonstrated statistically significant differences in 5-year DFS, 100%, 72.7%, and 51.4%, respectively ( p = 0.0005). Conclusions Noninvasive CANARY-based risk stratification identifies subgroups of patients with pulmonary nodules of the adenocarcinoma spectrum characterized by distinct clinical outcomes. This technique may ultimately improve the current expert opinion-based approach to the management of these lesions by facilitating individualized patient management.

Inter- and intra-rater agreement in assessing Interstitial Pulmonary Fibrosis (IPF) on CT scans is poor. Lack of approaches to understand the nuances of CT reconstruction parameters and their effect on patient scans hampers objective IPF quantification. In this paper, we propose an image analytic methodology to characterize the relationship between CT reconstruction parameters and IPF manifestation in scans. The raw data acquired from a patient was reconstructed with a combination of image thickness, interval and reconstruction kernels to derive 104 datasets. Quantitative and qualitative analyses were performed on the regional statistics computed in the neighborhood of each parenchymal voxel and for expert-chosen regions of interest (ROIs). The proposed approach could facilitate the selection of optimal CT reconstruction parameters to more robustly quantify IPF.

This paper introduces computational tools that could enable personalized, predictive, preemptive, and participatory (P4) Pulmonary medicine. We demonstrate approaches to (a) stratify lungs from different subjects based on the spatial distribution of parenchymal abnormality and (b) visualize the stratification through glyphs that convey both the grouping efficacy and an iconic overview of an individual's lung wellness. Affinity propagation based on regional parenchymal abnormalities is used in the referenceless stratification. Abnormalities are computed using supervised classification based on Earth Mover's distance. Twenty natural clusters were detected from 372 CT lung scans. The computed clusters correlated with clinical consensus of 9 disease types. The quality of interand intra-cluster stratification as assessed by ANOSIM R was 0.887 ± 0.18 (pval < 0.0005). The proposed tools could serve as biomarkers to objectively diagnose pathology, track progression and assess pharmacologic response within and across patients.

Diffuse parenchymal lung diseases (DPLDs) are characterized by widespread pathological changes within the pulmonary tissue that impair the elasticity and gas exchange properties of the lungs. Clinical-radiological diagnosis of these diseases remains challenging and their clinical course is characterized by variable disease progression. These challenges have hindered the introduction of robust objective biomarkers for patient-specific prediction based on specific phenotypes in clinical practice for patients with DPLD. Therefore, strategies facilitating individualized clinical management, staging and identification of specific phenotypes linked to clinical disease outcomes or therapeutic responses are urgently needed. A classification schema consistently reflecting the radiological, clinical (lung function and clinical outcomes) and pathological features of a disease represents a critical need in modern pulmonary medicine. Herein, we report a quantitative stratification paradigm to identify subsets of DPLD patients with characteristic radiologic patterns in an unsupervised manner and demonstrate significant correlation of these self-organized disease groups with clinically accepted surrogate endpoints. The proposed consistent and reproducible technique could potentially transform diagnostic staging, clinical management and prognostication of DPLD patients as well as facilitate patient selection for clinical trials beyond the ability of current radiological tools. In addition, the sequential quantitative stratification of the type and extent of parenchymal process may allow standardized and objective monitoring of disease, early assessment of treatment response and mortality prediction for DPLD patients.