1. Impact of COVID-19 lockdowns on hospital presentations and admissions in the context of low community transmission: evidence from time series analysis in Melbourne, Australia
- Author
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Velandai Srikanth, Jonathan Dowling, Timur A Krivitsky, Nadine E. Andrew, Nicholas Mcinnes, Taya A. Collyer, Shyaman Menon, Gary Braun, Chris Matthews, George Athanasopoulos, Ravindranath Tiruvoipati, and Helen Cooper
- Subjects
medicine.medical_specialty ,Telemedicine ,Time Factors ,Adolescent ,Epidemiology ,Context (language use) ,Pandemic ,medicine ,Humans ,Pandemics ,Retrospective Studies ,Original Research ,SARS-CoV-2 ,business.industry ,time-series ,Public health ,public health ,Australia ,Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health ,Attendance ,COVID-19 ,Emergency department ,healthcare disparities ,Triage ,Hospitals ,Communicable Disease Control ,Emergency medicine ,Catchment area ,Emergency Service, Hospital ,business - Abstract
BackgroundMelbourne, Australia, successfully halted exponential transmission of COVID-19 via two strict lockdowns during 2020. The impact of such restrictions on healthcare-seeking behaviour is not comprehensively understood, but is of global importance. We explore the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on acute, subacute and emergency department (ED) presentations/admissions within a tertiary, metropolitan health service in Melbourne, Australia, over two waves of community transmission (1 March to 20 September 2020).MethodsWe used 4 years of historical data and novel forecasting methods to predict counterfactual hospital activity for 2020, assuming absence of COVID-19. Observed activity was compared with forecasts overall, by age, triage category and for myocardial infarction and stroke. Data were analysed for all patients residing in the health service catchment area presenting between 4 January 2016 and 20 September 2020.ResultsED presentations (n=401 805), acute admissions (n=371 723) and subacute admissions (n=15 676) were analysed. Substantial departures from forecasted presentation levels were observed during both waves in the ED and acute settings, and during the second wave in subacute. Reductions were most marked among those aged >80 and ConclusionsOur analyses suggest citizens were willing and able to present with life-threatening conditions during Melbourne’s lockdowns, and that switching to telemedicine did not cause widespread spill-over from primary care into ED. During a pandemic, lockdowns may not inhibit appropriate hospital attendance where rates of infectious disease are low.
- Published
- 2021
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