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Truncus arteriosus is a congenital heart defect with high resource use, cost, and mortality. Value assessment (outcome relative to cost) can improve quality of care and decrease cost. This study hypothesized that truncus arteriosus repair at a high-volume center would result in better outcomes at lower cost (higher value) compared with a low-volume center.This study retrospectively analyzed a multicenter cohort of neonates undergoing truncus arteriosus repair (2004 to 2015) by using the Pediatric Health Information Systems database. Multivariate quantile, logistic, and negative binomial regression models were used to evaluate total hospital cost, in-hospital mortality, ventilation days, intensive care unit length of stay (LOS), hospital LOS, and days of inotropic agent use by center volume (high-volume3/year) and age at repair while adjusting for sex, ethnicity, race, genetic abnormality, prematurity, low birth weight, concurrent interrupted arch repair, and truncal valve repair.Of 1024 neonates with truncus arteriosus, 495 (48%) were treated at high-volume centers. Costs at the 75th percentile were lower at high-volume vs low-volume centers by $28,456 (P = .02) at all ages at repair. Patients at high-volume centers had lower median postoperative ventilation days (5 days vs 6 days; P.001), intensive care unit LOS (13 days vs 19 days; P.001), hospital LOS (23 days vs 28 days; P = .02), and inotropic agent use (3 days vs 4 days; P = .004). In-hospital mortality did not differ by center volume.In neonates undergoing truncus arteriosus repair, costs are lower and outcomes are better at high-volume centers, thus resulting in higher value at all ages of repair. Value-based interventions should be considered to improve outcomes and decrease cost in truncus arteriosus care.

Background COVID-19 transmission rates in South Asia initially were under control when governments implemented health policies aimed at controlling the pandemic such as quarantines, travel bans, and border, business, and school closures. Governments have since relaxed public health restrictions, which resulted in significant outbreaks, shifting the global epicenter of COVID-19 to India. Ongoing systematic public health surveillance of the COVID-19 pandemic is needed to inform disease prevention policy to re-establish control over the pandemic within South Asia. Objective This study aimed to inform public health leaders about the state of the COVID-19 pandemic, how South Asia displays differences within and among countries and other global regions, and where immediate action is needed to control the outbreaks. Methods We extracted COVID-19 data spanning 62 days from public health registries and calculated traditional and enhanced surveillance metrics. We use an empirical difference equation to measure the daily number of cases in South Asia as a function of the prior number of cases, the level of testing, and weekly shifts in variables with a dynamic panel model that was estimated using the generalized method of moments approach by implementing the Arellano–Bond estimator in R. Results Traditional surveillance metrics indicate that South Asian countries have an alarming outbreak, with India leading the region with 310,310 new daily cases in accordance with the 7-day moving average. Enhanced surveillance indicates that while Pakistan and Bangladesh still have a high daily number of new COVID-19 cases (n=4819 and n=3878, respectively), their speed of new infections declined from April 12-25, 2021, from 2.28 to 2.18 and 3.15 to 2.35 daily new infections per 100,000 population, respectively, which suggests that their outbreaks are decreasing and that these countries are headed in the right direction. In contrast, India’s speed of new infections per 100,000 population increased by 52% during the same period from 14.79 to 22.49 new cases per day per 100,000 population, which constitutes an increased outbreak. Conclusions Relaxation of public health restrictions and the spread of novel variants fueled the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in South Asia. Public health surveillance indicates that shifts in policy and the spread of new variants correlate with a drastic expansion in the pandemic, requiring immediate action to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. Surveillance is needed to inform leaders whether policies help control the pandemic.

Objective To examine prevalence, demographic, and incident factors associated with opioid-positivity in Illinois suicide decedents who died by causes other than poisoning. Method Cross-sectional study of Illinois’ suicide decedents occurring between January 2015 and December 2017. Data come from the National Violent Death Reporting System. We used Chi-square tests to compare decedent and incident circumstance characteristics by opioid toxicology screen status. Incident narratives were analyzed to obtain physical and mental health histories and circumstances related to fatal injury events. Results Of 1007 non-poisoning suicide decedents screened for opioids, 16.4% were opioid-positive. White race, age 75 and over, and widowed or unknown marital status were associated with opioid-positivity. Among opioid-positive decedents, 25% had a history of substance use disorder (SUD), 61% depression, and 19% anxiety. The majority (52%) of opioid-positive decedents died by firearm, a higher percentage than opioid-negative decedents. Conclusion The opioid overdose crisis largely has not overlapped with non-poisoning suicide in this study. Overall, our analyses have not identified additional risk factors for suicide among opioid-positive suicide decedents. However, the overlap between opioid-positivity, SUD, and physical and mental health problems found among decedents in our data suggest several suicide prevention opportunities. These include medication assisted treatment for SUD which has been shown to reduce suicide, screening for opioid/benzodiazepine overlap, and limiting access to lethal means during opioid use. Improved death scene investigations for substances and use of the Prescription Drug Monitoring Program to document prescriptions are needed to further understanding of the role of substances in non-poisoning suicide.

Background Public mass shootings are a significant public health problem that require ongoing systematic surveillance to test and inform policies that combat gun injuries. Although there is widespread agreement that something needs to be done to stop public mass shootings, opinions on exactly which policies that entails vary, such as the prohibition of assault weapons and large-capacity magazines. Objective The aim of this study was to determine if the Federal Assault Weapons Ban (FAWB) (1994-2004) reduced the number of public mass shootings while it was in place. Methods We extracted public mass shooting surveillance data from the Violence Project that matched our inclusion criteria of 4 or more fatalities in a public space during a single event. We performed regression discontinuity analysis, taking advantage of the imposition of the FAWB, which included a prohibition on large-capacity magazines in addition to assault weapons. We estimated a regression model of the 5-year moving average number of public mass shootings per year for the period of 1966 to 2019 controlling for population growth and homicides in general, introduced regression discontinuities in the intercept and a time trend for years coincident with the federal legislation (ie, 1994-2004), and also allowed for a differential effect of the homicide rate during this period. We introduced a second set of trend and intercept discontinuities for post-FAWB years to capture the effects of termination of the policy. We used the regression results to predict what would have happened from 1995 to 2019 had there been no FAWB and also to project what would have happened from 2005 onward had it remained in place. Results The FAWB resulted in a significant decrease in public mass shootings, number of gun deaths, and number of gun injuries. We estimate that the FAWB prevented 11 public mass shootings during the decade the ban was in place. A continuation of the FAWB would have prevented 30 public mass shootings that killed 339 people and injured an additional 1139 people. Conclusions This study demonstrates the utility of public health surveillance on gun violence. Surveillance informs policy on whether a ban on assault weapons and large-capacity magazines reduces public mass shootings. As society searches for effective policies to prevent the next mass shooting, we must consider the overwhelming evidence that bans on assault weapons and/or large-capacity magazines work.

Background The COVID-19 pandemic has placed unprecedented stress on economies, food systems, and health care resources in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). Existing surveillance provides a proxy of the COVID-19 caseload and mortalities; however, these measures make it difficult to identify the dynamics of the pandemic and places where outbreaks are likely to occur. Moreover, existing surveillance techniques have failed to measure the dynamics of the pandemic. Objective This study aimed to provide additional surveillance metrics for COVID-19 transmission to track changes in the speed, acceleration, jerk, and persistence in the transmission of the pandemic more accurately than existing metrics. Methods Through a longitudinal trend analysis, we extracted COVID-19 data over 45 days from public health registries. We used an empirical difference equation to monitor the daily number of cases in the LAC as a function of the prior number of cases, the level of testing, and weekly shift variables based on a dynamic panel model that was estimated using the generalized method of moments approach by implementing the Arellano–Bond estimator in R. COVID-19 transmission rates were tracked for the LAC between September 30 and October 6, 2020, and between October 7 and 13, 2020. Results The LAC saw a reduction in the speed, acceleration, and jerk for the week of October 13, 2020, compared to the week of October 6, 2020, accompanied by reductions in new cases and the 7-day moving average. For the week of October 6, 2020, Belize reported the highest acceleration and jerk, at 1.7 and 1.8, respectively, which is particularly concerning, given its high mortality rate. The Bahamas also had a high acceleration at 1.5. In total, 11 countries had a positive acceleration during the week of October 6, 2020, whereas only 6 countries had a positive acceleration for the week of October 13, 2020. The TAC displayed an overall positive trend, with a speed of 10.40, acceleration of 0.27, and jerk of –0.31, all of which decreased in the subsequent week to 9.04, –0.81, and –0.03, respectively. Conclusions Metrics such as new cases, cumulative cases, deaths, and 7-day moving averages provide a static view of the pandemic but fail to identify where and the speed at which SARS-CoV-2 infects new individuals, the rate of acceleration or deceleration of the pandemic, and weekly comparison of the rate of acceleration of the pandemic indicate impending explosive growth or control of the pandemic. Enhanced surveillance will inform policymakers and leaders in the LAC about COVID-19 outbreaks.

BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic has severely impacted Europe, resulting in a high caseload and deaths that varied by country. The second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic has breached the borders of Europe. Public health surveillance is necessary to inform policy and guide leaders.ObjectiveThis study aimed to provide advanced surveillance metrics for COVID-19 transmission that account for weekly shifts in the pandemic, speed, acceleration, jerk, and persistence, to better understand countries at risk for explosive growth and those that are managing the pandemic effectively.MethodsWe performed a longitudinal trend analysis and extracted 62 days of COVID-19 data from public health registries. We used an empirical difference equation to measure the daily number of cases in Europe as a function of the prior number of cases, the level of testing, and weekly shift variables based on a dynamic panel model that was estimated using the generalized method of moments approach by implementing the Arellano-Bond estimator in R.ResultsNew COVID-19 cases slightly decreased from 158,741 (week 1, January 4-10, 2021) to 152,064 (week 2, January 11-17, 2021), and cumulative cases increased from 22,507,271 (week 1) to 23,890,761 (week 2), with a weekly increase of 1,383,490 between January 10 and January 17. France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom had the largest 7-day moving averages for new cases during week 1. During week 2, the 7-day moving average for France and Spain increased. From week 1 to week 2, the speed decreased (37.72 to 33.02 per 100,000), acceleration decreased (0.39 to –0.16 per 100,000), and jerk increased (–1.30 to 1.37 per 100,000).ConclusionsThe United Kingdom, Spain, and Portugal, in particular, are at risk for a rapid expansion in COVID-19 transmission. An examination of the European region suggests that there was a decrease in the COVID-19 caseload between January 4 and January 17, 2021. Unfortunately, the rates of jerk, which were negative for Europe at the beginning of the month, reversed course and became positive, despite decreases in speed and acceleration. Finally, the 7-day persistence rate was higher during week 2 than during week 1. These measures indicate that the second wave of the pandemic may be subsiding, but some countries remain at risk for new outbreaks and increased transmission in the absence of rapid policy responses.

Background SARS-CoV-2, the virus that caused the global COVID-19 pandemic, has severely impacted Central Asia; in spring 2020, high numbers of cases and deaths were reported in this region. The second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic is currently breaching the borders of Central Asia. Public health surveillance is necessary to inform policy and guide leaders; however, existing surveillance explains past transmissions while obscuring shifts in the pandemic, increases in infection rates, and the persistence of the transmission of COVID-19. Objective The goal of this study is to provide enhanced surveillance metrics for SARS-CoV-2 transmission that account for weekly shifts in the pandemic, including speed, acceleration, jerk, and persistence, to better understand the risk of explosive growth in each country and which countries are managing the pandemic successfully. Methods Using a longitudinal trend analysis study design, we extracted 60 days of COVID-19–related data from public health registries. We used an empirical difference equation to measure the daily number of cases in the Central Asia region as a function of the prior number of cases, level of testing, and weekly shift variables based on a dynamic panel model that was estimated using the generalized method of moments approach by implementing the Arellano-Bond estimator in R. Results COVID-19 transmission rates were tracked for the weeks of September 30 to October 6 and October 7-13, 2020, in Central Asia. The region averaged 11,730 new cases per day for the first week and 14,514 for the second week. Infection rates increased across the region from 4.74 per 100,000 persons to 5.66. Russia and Turkey had the highest 7-day moving averages in the region, with 9836 and 1469, respectively, for the week of October 6 and 12,501 and 1603, respectively, for the week of October 13. Russia has the fourth highest speed in the region and continues to have positive acceleration, driving the negative trend for the entire region as the largest country by population. Armenia is experiencing explosive growth of COVID-19; its infection rate of 13.73 for the week of October 6 quickly jumped to 25.19, the highest in the region, the following week. The region overall is experiencing increases in its 7-day moving average of new cases, infection, rate, and speed, with continued positive acceleration and no sign of a reversal in sight. Conclusions The rapidly evolving COVID-19 pandemic requires novel dynamic surveillance metrics in addition to static metrics to effectively analyze the pandemic trajectory and control spread. Policy makers need to know the magnitude of transmission rates, how quickly they are accelerating, and how previous cases are impacting current caseload due to a lag effect. These metrics applied to Central Asia suggest that the region is trending negatively, primarily due to minimal restrictions in Russia.

Summary Background Over 200 million women and girls worldwide have suffered from the partial to total removal of external female genitalia for nonmedical purposes, referred to as female genital mutilation (FGM). Survivors of FGM may develop debilitating physical and psychological long-term sequelae. This is the first study to examine the scope of the extant surgical literature on the management of FGM-related morbidity. Methods A systematic scoping review of five major research citation databases was conducted. Results A total of 190 articles from 29 countries met the inclusion criteria. The majority (76%) were primary source articles and from obstetrics and gynecology literature (71%). Reported interventions for FGM-related morbidity were defibulation, cyst excision, clitoral and vulvar reconstruction, urological reconstruction, peripartum procedures, labial adhesion release, and reinfibulation. Conclusions Surgery for FGM complications spans multiple specialties, which suggests multidisciplinary collaboration benefit. Plastic and reconstructive surgeons have a clear role in the multidisciplinary care team for these patients. This scoping review identified a paucity of high-quality evidence with respect to functional quality of life outcomes and long-term follow-up.

Background The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted the lives of millions and forced countries to devise public health policies to reduce the pace of transmission. In the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), falling oil prices, disparities in wealth and public health infrastructure, and large refugee populations have significantly increased the disease burden of COVID-19. In light of these exacerbating factors, public health surveillance is particularly necessary to help leaders understand and implement effective disease control policies to reduce SARS-CoV-2 persistence and transmission. Objective The goal of this study is to provide advanced surveillance metrics, in combination with traditional surveillance, for COVID-19 transmission that account for weekly shifts in the pandemic speed, acceleration, jerk, and persistence to better understand a country’s risk for explosive growth and to better inform those who are managing the pandemic. Existing surveillance coupled with our dynamic metrics of transmission will inform health policy to control the COVID-19 pandemic until an effective vaccine is developed. Methods Using a longitudinal trend analysis study design, we extracted 30 days of COVID-19 data from public health registries. We used an empirical difference equation to measure the daily number of cases in MENA as a function of the prior number of cases, the level of testing, and weekly shift variables based on a dynamic panel data model that was estimated using the generalized method of moments approach by implementing the Arellano-Bond estimator in R. Results The regression Wald statistic was significant (χ25=859.5, P Conclusions Static and dynamic public health surveillance metrics provide a more complete picture of pandemic progression across countries in MENA. Static measures capture data at a given point in time such as infection rates and death rates. By including speed, acceleration, jerk, and 7-day persistence, public health officials may design policies with an eye to the future. Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Israel all demonstrated the highest rate of infections, acceleration, jerk, and 7-day persistence, prompting public health leaders to increase prevention efforts.

Introduction Promoting emergency medicine (EM) clinical trials research remains a priority. To characterize the status of clinical EM research, this study assessed trial quality, funding source, and publication of EM clinical trials and compared EM and non-EM trials on these key metrics. We also examined the volume of EM trials and their subspecialty areas. Methods We abstracted data from ClinicalTrials.gov (February 2000 - September 2013) and used individual study National Clinical Trial numbers to identify published trials (January 2007 - September 2016). We used descriptive statistics and chi-square tests to examine study characteristics by EM and non-EM status, and Kaplan-Meier curves and log-rank tests to compare time to publication of completed EM and non-EM studies. Results We found 638 interventional EM trials and 59,512 non-EM interventional trials conducted in the United States between February 2000 and September 2013, registered on ClinicalTrials.gov. EM studies were significantly less likely than non-EM studies to be National Institutes of Health-funded or to evaluate a drug or biologic. However, EM studies had significantly larger sample sizes, and were significantly more likely to use randomization and blinding. Overall, 34.3% of EM and 26.0% of non-EM studies were published in peer-reviewed journals. By subspecialty, more EM trials concerned medical/surgical and psychiatric/neurological conditions than trauma. Conclusion Although EM studies were less likely to have received federal or industry funding, and the EM portfolio consisted of only 638 trials over the 14-year study period, the quality of EM trials surpassed that of non-EM trials, based on indices such as randomization and blinding. This novel finding bodes well for the future of clinical EM research, as does the higher proportion of published EM than non-EM trials. Our study also revealed that trauma studies were under-represented among EM studies. Periodic assessment of EM trials with the metrics used here could provide an informative and valuable longitudinal view of progress in clinical EM research.

BackgroundThe COVID-19 global pandemic has disrupted structures and communities across the globe. Numerous regions of the world have had varying responses in their attempts to contain the spread of the virus. Factors such as public health policies, governance, and sociopolitical climate have led to differential levels of success at controlling the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Ultimately, a more advanced surveillance metric for COVID-19 transmission is necessary to help government systems and national leaders understand which responses have been effective and gauge where outbreaks occur.ObjectiveThe goal of this study is to provide advanced COVID-19 surveillance metrics for Canada at the country, province, and territory level that account for shifts in the pandemic including speed, acceleration, jerk, and persistence. Enhanced surveillance identifies risks for explosive growth and regions that have controlled outbreaks successfully.MethodsUsing a longitudinal trend analysis study design, we extracted 62 days of COVID-19 data from Canadian public health registries for 13 provinces and territories. We used an empirical difference equation to measure the daily number of cases in Canada as a function of the prior number of cases, the level of testing, and weekly shift variables based on a dynamic panel model that was estimated using the generalized method of moments approach by implementing the Arellano-Bond estimator in R.ResultsWe compare the week of February 7-13, 2021, with the week of February 14-20, 2021. Canada, as a whole, had a decrease in speed from 8.4 daily new cases per 100,000 population to 7.5 daily new cases per 100,000 population. The persistence of new cases during the week of February 14-20 reported 7.5 cases that are a result of COVID-19 transmissions 7 days earlier. The two most populous provinces of Ontario and Quebec both experienced decreases in speed from 7.9 and 11.5 daily new cases per 100,000 population for the week of February 7-13 to speeds of 6.9 and 9.3 for the week of February 14-20, respectively. Nunavut experienced a significant increase in speed during this time, from 3.3 daily new cases per 100,000 population to 10.9 daily new cases per 100,000 population.ConclusionsCanada excelled at COVID-19 control early on in the pandemic, especially during the first COVID-19 shutdown. The second wave at the end of 2020 resulted in a resurgence of the outbreak, which has since been controlled. Enhanced surveillance identifies outbreaks and where there is the potential for explosive growth, which informs proactive health policy.

Immigrant/refugee children sometimes have substantially higher blood lead levels (BLLs) than US-born children in similar environments. We try to understand why, by exploring the relationship between immigration status of mother and the BLLs of US-born children. We compared BLLs of children born in Michigan to immigrant and non-immigrant parents, using the Michigan database of BLL tests for 2002-2005, which includes the child's race, Medicaid eligibility and address. We added census data on socio-demographic/housing characteristics of the child's block group, and information about parents. Low parental education, single parent households, mothers' smoking and drinking, all increase the child's BLL. However, immigrant parents had fewer characteristics associated with high BLL than US born parents, and their children had lower BLLs than children of US-born mothers. Our findings suggest that prior findings of higher BLLs among immigrant/refugee children probably result from them starting life in high-lead environments.

Background The emergence of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, has led to a global pandemic. The United States has been severely affected, accounting for the most COVID-19 cases and deaths worldwide. Without a coordinated national public health plan informed by surveillance with actionable metrics, the United States has been ineffective at preventing and mitigating the escalating COVID-19 pandemic. Existing surveillance has incomplete ascertainment and is limited by the use of standard surveillance metrics. Although many COVID-19 data sources track infection rates, informing prevention requires capturing the relevant dynamics of the pandemic. Objective The aim of this study is to develop dynamic metrics for public health surveillance that can inform worldwide COVID-19 prevention efforts. Advanced surveillance techniques are essential to inform public health decision making and to identify where and when corrective action is required to prevent outbreaks. Methods Using a longitudinal trend analysis study design, we extracted COVID-19 data from global public health registries. We used an empirical difference equation to measure daily case numbers for our use case in 50 US states and the District of Colombia as a function of the prior number of cases, the level of testing, and weekly shift variables based on a dynamic panel model that was estimated using the generalized method of moments approach by implementing the Arellano-Bond estimator in R. Results Examination of the United States and state data demonstrated that most US states are experiencing outbreaks as measured by these new metrics of speed, acceleration, jerk, and persistence. Larger US states have high COVID-19 caseloads as a function of population size, density, and deficits in adherence to public health guidelines early in the epidemic, and other states have alarming rates of speed, acceleration, jerk, and 7-day persistence in novel infections. North and South Dakota have had the highest rates of COVID-19 transmission combined with positive acceleration, jerk, and 7-day persistence. Wisconsin and Illinois also have alarming indicators and already lead the nation in daily new COVID-19 infections. As the United States enters its third wave of COVID-19, all 50 states and the District of Colombia have positive rates of speed between 7.58 (Hawaii) and 175.01 (North Dakota), and persistence, ranging from 4.44 (Vermont) to 195.35 (North Dakota) new infections per 100,000 people. Conclusions Standard surveillance techniques such as daily and cumulative infections and deaths are helpful but only provide a static view of what has already occurred in the pandemic and are less helpful in prevention. Public health policy that is informed by dynamic surveillance can shift the country from reacting to COVID-19 transmissions to being proactive and taking corrective action when indicators of speed, acceleration, jerk, and persistence remain positive week over week. Implicit within our dynamic surveillance is an early warning system that indicates when there is problematic growth in COVID-19 transmissions as well as signals when growth will become explosive without action. A public health approach that focuses on prevention can prevent major outbreaks in addition to endorsing effective public health policies. Moreover, subnational analyses on the dynamics of the pandemic allow us to zero in on where transmissions are increasing, meaning corrective action can be applied with precision in problematic areas. Dynamic public health surveillance can inform specific geographies where quarantines are necessary while preserving the economy in other US areas.

BackgroundSince the novel coronavirus emerged in late 2019, the scientific and public health community around the world have sought to better understand, surveil, treat, and prevent the disease, COVID-19. In sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), many countries responded aggressively and decisively with lockdown measures and border closures. Such actions may have helped prevent large outbreaks throughout much of the region, though there is substantial variation in caseloads and mortality between nations. Additionally, the health system infrastructure remains a concern throughout much of SSA, and the lockdown measures threaten to increase poverty and food insecurity for the subcontinent’s poorest residents. The lack of sufficient testing, asymptomatic infections, and poor reporting practices in many countries limit our understanding of the virus’s impact, creating a need for better and more accurate surveillance metrics that account for underreporting and data contamination.ObjectiveThe goal of this study is to improve infectious disease surveillance by complementing standardized metrics with new and decomposable surveillance metrics of COVID-19 that overcome data limitations and contamination inherent in public health surveillance systems. In addition to prevalence of observed daily and cumulative testing, testing positivity rates, morbidity, and mortality, we derived COVID-19 transmission in terms of speed, acceleration or deceleration, change in acceleration or deceleration (jerk), and 7-day transmission rate persistence, which explains where and how rapidly COVID-19 is transmitting and quantifies shifts in the rate of acceleration or deceleration to inform policies to mitigate and prevent COVID-19 and food insecurity in SSA.MethodsWe extracted 60 days of COVID-19 data from public health registries and employed an empirical difference equation to measure daily case numbers in 47 sub-Saharan countries as a function of the prior number of cases, the level of testing, and weekly shift variables based on a dynamic panel model that was estimated using the generalized method of moments approach by implementing the Arellano-Bond estimator in R.ResultsKenya, Ghana, Nigeria, Ethiopia, and South Africa have the most observed cases of COVID-19, and the Seychelles, Eritrea, Mauritius, Comoros, and Burundi have the fewest. In contrast, the speed, acceleration, jerk, and 7-day persistence indicate rates of COVID-19 transmissions differ from observed cases. In September 2020, Cape Verde, Namibia, Eswatini, and South Africa had the highest speed of COVID-19 transmissions at 13.1, 7.1, 3.6, and 3 infections per 100,0000, respectively; Zimbabwe had an acceleration rate of transmission, while Zambia had the largest rate of deceleration this week compared to last week, referred to as a jerk. Finally, the 7-day persistence rate indicates the number of cases on September 15, 2020, which are a function of new infections from September 8, 2020, decreased in South Africa from 216.7 to 173.2 and Ethiopia from 136.7 to 106.3 per 100,000. The statistical approach was validated based on the regression results; they determined recent changes in the pattern of infection, and during the weeks of September 1-8 and September 9-15, there were substantial country differences in the evolution of the SSA pandemic. This change represents a decrease in the transmission model R value for that week and is consistent with a de-escalation in the pandemic for the sub-Saharan African continent in general.ConclusionsStandard surveillance metrics such as daily observed new COVID-19 cases or deaths are necessary but insufficient to mitigate and prevent COVID-19 transmission. Public health leaders also need to know where COVID-19 transmission rates are accelerating or decelerating, whether those rates increase or decrease over short time frames because the pandemic can quickly escalate, and how many cases today are a function of new infections 7 days ago. Even though SSA is home to some of the poorest countries in the world, development and population size are not necessarily predictive of COVID-19 transmission, meaning higher income countries like the United States can learn from African countries on how best to implement mitigation and prevention efforts.International Registered Report Identifier (IRRID)RR2-10.2196/21955

Background The Great COVID-19 Shutdown aimed to eliminate or slow the spread of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. The United States has no national policy, leaving states to independently implement public health guidelines that are predicated on a sustained decline in COVID-19 cases. Operationalization of “sustained decline” varies by state and county. Existing models of COVID-19 transmission rely on parameters such as case estimates or R0 and are dependent on intensive data collection efforts. Static statistical models do not capture all of the relevant dynamics required to measure sustained declines. Moreover, existing COVID-19 models use data that are subject to significant measurement error and contamination. Objective This study will generate novel metrics of speed, acceleration, jerk, and 7-day lag in the speed of COVID-19 transmission using state government tallies of SARS-CoV-2 infections, including state-level dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 infections. This study provides the prototype for a global surveillance system to inform public health practice, including novel standardized metrics of COVID-19 transmission, for use in combination with traditional surveillance tools. Methods Dynamic panel data models were estimated with the Arellano-Bond estimator using the generalized method of moments. This statistical technique allows for the control of a variety of deficiencies in the existing data. Tests of the validity of the model and statistical techniques were applied. Results The statistical approach was validated based on the regression results, which determined recent changes in the pattern of infection. During the weeks of August 17-23 and August 24-30, 2020, there were substantial regional differences in the evolution of the US pandemic. Census regions 1 and 2 were relatively quiet with a small but significant persistence effect that remained relatively unchanged from the prior 2 weeks. Census region 3 was sensitive to the number of tests administered, with a high constant rate of cases. A weekly special analysis showed that these results were driven by states with a high number of positive test reports from universities. Census region 4 had a high constant number of cases and a significantly increased persistence effect during the week of August 24-30. This change represents an increase in the transmission model R value for that week and is consistent with a re-emergence of the pandemic. Conclusions Reopening the United States comes with three certainties: (1) the “social” end of the pandemic and reopening are going to occur before the “medical” end even while the pandemic is growing. We need improved standardized surveillance techniques to inform leaders when it is safe to open sections of the country; (2) varying public health policies and guidelines unnecessarily result in varying degrees of transmission and outbreaks; and (3) even those states most successful in containing the pandemic continue to see a small but constant stream of new cases daily.

Background and objectives Older adults (age 65 and older) use the emergency department (ED) at a rate of nearly 50 ED visits per 100 older adults, accounting for over 23 million ED visits in the US annually, up to 20% of all ED visits. These ED visits are sentinel health events as discharged patients often return to the ED, experience declines in health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and disability, or are later hospitalized. Those who are admitted incur increased costs and greater risk for poor outcomes including infections, delirium, and falls. The objective of this randomized controlled trial (RCT) is to evaluate the efficacy of the Geriatric Emergency Department Innovations (GEDI) program, an ED nurse-led geriatric assessment and care coordination program, in decreasing unnecessary health services use and improving Health-Related Quality-of-Life (HRQoL) for older adults in the ED. Methods Community dwelling older adults aged 65 and older who are vulnerable or frail according to the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) during an ED visit will be randomized to either GEDI (n = 420) or to usual ED care (n = 420). Outcome variables will be assessed during the ED visit and at 7–11 days and 28–32 days post ED visit. Projected outcomes The primary outcome is hospitalization or death within 30 days of the ED visit. Secondary outcomes include health service use outcomes (ED visits and hospitalizations), healthcare costs, and HRQoL outcomes [Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System (PROMIS) scores: PROMIS-Preference, Physical Function, Ability to Participate in Social Roles and Activities, Anxiety, and Depression]. Trial registration Clinicaltrials.Gov identifier NCT04115371

Background SARS-CoV-2, the novel coronavirus that causes COVID-19, is a global pandemic with higher mortality and morbidity than any other virus in the last 100 years. Without public health surveillance, policy makers cannot know where and how the disease is accelerating, decelerating, and shifting. Unfortunately, existing models of COVID-19 contagion rely on parameters such as the basic reproduction number and use static statistical methods that do not capture all the relevant dynamics needed for surveillance. Existing surveillance methods use data that are subject to significant measurement error and other contaminants. Objective The aim of this study is to provide a proof of concept of the creation of surveillance metrics that correct for measurement error and data contamination to determine when it is safe to ease pandemic restrictions. We applied state-of-the-art statistical modeling to existing internet data to derive the best available estimates of the state-level dynamics of COVID-19 infection in the United States. Methods Dynamic panel data (DPD) models were estimated with the Arellano-Bond estimator using the generalized method of moments. This statistical technique enables control of various deficiencies in a data set. The validity of the model and statistical technique was tested. Results A Wald chi-square test of the explanatory power of the statistical approach indicated that it is valid (χ210=1489.84, P Conclusions DPD models successfully correct for measurement error and data contamination and are useful to derive surveillance metrics. The opening of America involves two certainties: the country will be COVID-19–free only when there is an effective vaccine, and the “social” end of the pandemic will occur before the “medical” end. Therefore, improved surveillance metrics are needed to inform leaders of how to open sections of the United States more safely. DPD models can inform this reopening in combination with the extraction of COVID-19 data from existing websites.

Objective: The Emergency Department (ED) Geriatric Readmission Assessment (ED-GRAY) is a 16-item questionnaire we developed that can be used to evaluate the prognostic ability to determine if geriatric patients will recidivate to the ED, be admitted or die within 30 days. Methods: We conducted an observational prospective cohort study at a single academic urban university-affiliated hospital. Subjects (n=250) were consenting, non-critically ill, English-speaking Original Research Article Post et al.; BJMMR, 14(1): 1-8, 2016; Article no.BJMMR.23877 2 adults older than 65 years and receiving care in the ED. Multivariable logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to evaluate the ability to accurately predict the likelihood of a 30-day event: subsequent ED visit, hospitalization, or death. Results: 56 participants (22%) experienced at least one 30-day return visit or death. Greater disability as measured by the ED GRAY global disability was associated with an increased likelihood of an event (OR=1.7 for each 1-point worsening in severity; 95% CI 1.2, 2.5). In the multivariable model, prior ED visits (OR=2.7, 95% CI=1.4, 5.2), ED GRAY global score (OR=1.4, 95% CI=1.0, 2.1), and age (OR=1.03, 95% CI=0.99, 1.07) were associated with a greater likelihood of a 30-day event. The fit of the multivariable model was good (Hosmer-Lemeshow Goodness of Fit test, p=0.85) and it provided good discrimination between those having and not having a 30-day event (AUROC=0.70). The predicted probability of a return visit ranged from 3–56%. Conclusions: ED GRAY demonstrated good predictive validity when combined with prior ED visits, poly-pharmacy and age.

Objective: Our primary objective was to develop a reliable, valid, and efficient screening tool that measures recovery disability among geriatric patients for the Department of Emergency Medicine (ED) Geriatric Readmission Assessments (GRAY). Methods: We conducted a retrospective medical chart review and prospective data analysis of geriatric patients admitted to hospital from the emergency department that were discharged, admitted, or died at a single academic urban university-affiliated hospital to identify items for ED GRAY. Rasch analysis was then used to reduce items and construct an interval/ratio scale of physical and cognitive disabilities. Patients consisted of a cohort of consenting, non-critically ill, English-speaking adults older than 65 years and receiving care in the ED to reduce the number of items. Original Research Article Post et al.; BJMMR, 14(1): 1-14, 2016; Article no.BJMMR.23875 2 Results: Rasch analyses resulted in infit and outfit statistics that eliminated redundant items or items that did not fit a unidimensional disability construct. From the 158 original items, sixteen items comprise the ED GRAY global health questionnaire, representing five sub-constructs: physical disability, cognitive disability, stress, depression, and isolation. All infit and outfit statistics for the global recovery disability score ranging from 1 (least healthy) to 5 (most healthy) were consistent with forming a unidimensional scale. Conclusions: Our study resulted in an objective measurement tool of physical and cognitive disability using Rasch analyses. This screening tool allows healthcare providers the ability to screen older ED patients on a continuum of risk, with high-risk patients being most likely to benefit from indepth evaluation—e.g., comprehensive geriatric assessment—followed by intervention (when necessary).

The capacity of electronic health records (EHRs) to capture desired information depends on the practices of health care providers. These practices have not been well studied in relation to post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). This qualitative study investigated how providers write EHR notes on PTSD through 38 interviews with providers working at five Veterans Affairs (VA) hospitals across the United States of America. Two overarching themes were prominent in the results. Providers used progress notes primarily to remember and access details for direct patient care, but only rarely for care coordination. Providers infrequently recorded information not judged to directly contribute to improved care, sometimes deliberately omitting information perceived to jeopardize patients' access to, or quality of, care. Omitted information frequently included sexual or non-military trauma. Understanding providers' thought processes can help clinicians be aware of the limitations of EHR notes as a tool for learning the histories of new patients. Similarly, researchers relying on EHR data for PTSD research should be aware of likely areas of missing data.

The objectives were to highlight the burden of overweight and obesity as an additional area of importance for the malnutrition agenda in Uganda and to provide evidence-based considerations for stakeholders involved. Introduction: Mirroring other Low- and Middle-Income Countries (LMICs), Uganda is experiencing a "double burden" of over-nutrition related issues - both obesity and overweight, and related non-communicable diseases (NCDs) alongside the under-nutrition that has long plagued the country. Despite the commonplace assumption that under-nutrition is the predominant form of malnutrition in Uganda, we explore recent literature that in fact, challenges this notion. While food insecurity has contributed to the under-nutrition problem, a lack of dietary diversity also has a demonstrated role in increasing over-nutrition. We cannot afford to ignore over-nutrition concomitant with stunting and wasting in the country. Increase in the burden of this less acknowledged form of malnutrition in Uganda is critical to investigate, and yet poorly understood. A move towards increased regionally targeted over-nutrition research, funding, government prioritization and advocacy is needed. Key words : Uganda, East Africa, Africa, nutrition, malnutrition, overweight, obesity

Our objective was to characterize the tasks of emergency radiologists and emergency physicians and quantify the proportion of time spent on these tasks to assess their roles in patient evaluation. Our study involved emergency radiologists and emergency physicians at an urban academic level I trauma medical center. Participants were observed for continuous 2-h periods during which all of their activities were timed and categorized into the following tasks: patient history, patient physical findings, assessment/plan, procedures, technical/administration, paperwork, and personal time. We performed multivariate analyses to compare the proportion of time spent on task categories between specialties. Twenty physicians (10 emergency medicine and 10 radiology) were observed for a total of 146,802 s (2,446.7 min). Radiologists spent a significantly larger combined proportion of time on determining physical findings and paperwork than emergency physicians (61.9 vs. 28.3 %, p

Although research on domestic elder abuse and neglect has grown over the past 20 years, there is limited research on elder neglect in nursing homes. The purpose of this study is to estimate the incidence of elder neglect in nursing homes and identify the individual and contextual risks associated with elder neglect. Data came from a 2005 random digit dial survey of individuals in Michigan who had relatives in long term care. Our analytic sample included 414 family members who had a relative aged 65 or older in nursing homes. Results showed that about 21% of nursing home residents were neglected on one or more occasion in the last 12 months. Two nursing home residents' characteristics reported by family members appear to significantly increase the odds of neglect: functional impairments in activities of daily living and previous resident-to-resident victimization. Behavior problems also are associated with higher odds of neglect (p = 0.078). Policy implications of these results are discussed.

Elder abuse in long-term care has become a very important public health concern. Recent estimates of elder abuse prevalence are in the range of 2% to 10% (Lachs & Pillemer, 2004), and current changes in population structure indicate a potential for an upward trend in prevalence (Malley-Morrison, Nolido, & Chawla, 2006; Post et al., 2006). More than 20 years ago, Karl Pillemer called for sociological research on patient maltreatment in nursing homes and provided an overview model for the conduct of such research (Pillemer, 1988). The research literature since then has not provided the definitive model to account for patient maltreatment that Pillemer hoped for. Instead, it has produced a laundry list of risk factors that includes the patient’s functional disability, cognitive impairment, social isolation, age, race, income, family background, life events, dementia, and depression (Dyer, Pavlik, Murphy, & Hyman, 2000; Lachs & Pillemer, 2004; Lachs,Williams, Obrien, Hurst, & Horwitz, 1997; Pavlik, Hyman, Festa, & Dyer, 2001; Schofield & Mishra, 2003). However, no theory exists to place these factors in a causal structure that relates the factors to each other and to whether abuse occurs. This study is a first step in that direction. Nine hypotheses were generated focusing on the effects of two dimensions of impairment—(a) physical and cognitive and (b) age and behavior problems—on susceptibility to abuse among elderly in long-term care.The relationships between factors and from factors to susceptibility to abuse are specified in a structural equation model where “susceptibility to abuse,” “physical impairment,” and “cognitive impairment” are latent variables, and behavior problems and age are directly measured.

The authors investigated types and patterns of elder abuse by paid caregivers in long-term care and assessed the role of several risk factors for different abuses and for multiple abuse types. The results are based on a 2005 random-digit-dial survey of relatives of persons in long-term care. We computed occurrence rates and conditional occurrence rates for each of six abuse types: physical, caretaking, verbal, emotional, neglect, and material. Among older adults who have experienced at least one type of abuse, more than half (51.4%) have experienced another type of abuse. Physical functioning problems, activities of daily living limitations, and behavioral problems are significant risk factors for at least three types of abuse and are significant for multiple abuse types. The findings have implications for those monitoring the well-being of older adults in long-term care as well as those responsible for developing public health interventions.

BackgroundLittle is known about “new media” use, defined as media content created or consumed on demand on an electronic device, by patients in emergency department (ED) settings. The application of this technology has the potential to enhance health care beyond the index visit. ObjectiveThe objectives are to determine the prevalence and characteristics of ED patients’ use of new media and to then define and identify the potential of new media to transcend health care barriers and improve the public’s health. MethodsFace-to-face, cross-sectional surveys in Spanish and English were given to 5,994 patients who were sequentially enrolled from July 12 to August 30, 2012. Data were collected from across a Southern Connecticut health care system’s 3 high-volume EDs for 24 hours a day, 7 days a week for 6 weeks. The EDs were part of an urban academic teaching hospital, an urban community hospital, and an academic affiliate hospital. ResultsA total of 5,994 (89% response rate) ED patients reported identical ownership of cell phones (85%, P.05) and personal health records (P

Objectives. Articles describing the epidemiology of intimate partner homicide (IPH) have often been positioned as one-time research projects utilizing a single data source for case identification. However, researchers without access to centralized repositories for data pertinent to IPH can ascertain cases by using multiple extant data sources. The authors describe a surveillance system that can serve as a model for state health departments and others seeking to quantify and characterize violent deaths related to intimate partner relationships on an ongoing basis. Methods. Retrospective surveillance was conducted to identify and characterize deaths related to intimate partnerships by linking the following data sources: death certificates, newspaper articles, law enforcement reports, and medical examiners' records. Results. The authors identified at least 34% more IPHs using multiple data sources than would have been recognized solely using Supplementary Homicide Reports—the most frequently cited data source for IPH case ascertainment—and 22% more cases than newspaper data alone would have allowed for. Conclusions. While it was discovered that at least 181 IPHs—and at least 128 other deaths related to intimate partnerships—occurred in Michigan from 1999–2001, this frequency of occurrences is probably conservative. This limitation is due, in part, to the researchers not having access to information from all possible data source contributors. However, in the absence of statewide data systems, the authors demonstrate the utility of using multiple data sources for violent death surveillance to address incomplete case ascertainment.

The Michigan Workforce Background Check (MWBC) system combine data streams from various sources and online registries showing findings of abuse, neglect, misappropriation of property and health care fraud. Employers use MWBC to have an initial determination of the suitability of person for employment in Long-Term Care facility. In this paper, we demonstrate how management of information and the optimization of the human interface positively impact the patient safety and workflow, which is essential for effective public health management.

Objectives. We compared the likelihood that a tobacco user would receive treatment with the likelihood that an adult with another common chronic condition would receive treatment for that condition at an office visit. Methods. We analyzed data from the 2005–2007 National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey to compare the proportion of US office visits at which tobacco users and individuals with hypertension, hyperlipidemia, diabetes, asthma, or depression received condition-specific treatment. We calculated the odds that a visit for a comparison condition would result in treatment relative to a visit for tobacco dependence. Results. From 2005 to 2007, 38 004 patient visits involved at least 1 study condition. Tobacco users received medication at fewer visits (4.4%) than individuals with hypertension (57.4%), diabetes (46.2%), hyperlipidemia (47.1%), asthma (42.6%), and depression (53.3%). In multivariate analyses, the odds for pharmacological treatment of these disorders relative to tobacco use were, for hypertension, 32.8; diabetes, 20.9; hyperlipidemia, 16.5; asthma, 22.1; and depression, 24.0 (all Ps Conclusions. Alternate models of engagement may be needed to enhance use of effective treatments for tobacco use.

BackgroundPatients experiencing homelessness represent a disproportionate share of emergency department (ED) visits due to poor access to primary care and high levels of unmet health care needs. This is in part due to the difficulty of communicating and following up with patients who are experiencing homelessness. ObjectiveTo determine the prevalence and types of “new media” use among ED patients who experience homelessness. MethodsThis was a cross-sectional observational study with sequential enrolling of patients from three emergency departments 24/7 for 6 weeks. In total, 5788 ED patients were enrolled, of whom 249 experienced homelessness. Analyses included descriptive statistics, and unadjusted and adjusted odds ratios. Results70.7% (176/249) of patients experiencing homelessness own cell phones compared to 85.90% (4758/5539) of patients in stable housing (P=.001) with the former more likely to own Androids, 70% (53/76) versus 43.89% (1064/2424), and the latter more likely to have iPhones, 44.55% (1080/2424) versus 17% (13/76) (P=.001). There is no significant difference in new media use, modality, or frequency for both groups; however, there is a difference in contract plan with 50.02% (2380/4758) of stably housed patients having unlimited minutes versus 37.5% (66/176) of homeless patients. 19.78% (941/4758) of patients in stable housing have pay-as-you-go plans versus 33.0% (58/176) of homeless patients (P=.001). Patients experiencing homelessness are more likely to want health information on alcohol/substance abuse, mental health, domestic violence, pregnancy and smoking cessation. ConclusionsThis study is unique in its characterization of new media ownership and use among ED patients experiencing homelessness. New media is a powerful tool to connect patients experiencing homelessness to health care.

Article-at-a-Glance Background Multiple, validated, evidence-based guidelines exist to inform the appropriate use of computed tomography (CT) to differentiate mild traumatic brain injury (MTBI) from clinically important brain injury and to prevent the overuse of CT. Yet, CT use is growing rapidly, potentially exposing patients to unnecessary ionizing radiation risk and costs. A study was conducted to quantify the overuse of CT in MTBI on the basis of current guideline recommendations. Methods A retrospective analysis of secondary data from a prospective observational study was undertaken at an urban, Level I emergency department (ED) with more than 90,000 visits per year. For adult patients with minor head injury receiving CT imaging at the discretion of the treating physician, the proportion of cases meeting criteria for CT on the basis of the Canadian CT Head Rule (CCHR), American College of Emergency Physicians (ACEP) Clinical Policy, New Orleans Criteria (NOC), and National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) guidelines was reported. Results All 346 patients enrolled in the original study were included in the analysis. The proportion of cases meeting criteria for CT for each of the guidelines was: CCHR 64.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.60–0.70), ACEP 74.3% (95% CI, 0.70–0.79), NICE 86.7% (95% CI, 0.83–0.90), and NOC 90.5% (95% CI, 0.87–0.94). The odds ratio of the guidelines for predicting positive head CT findings were also reported. Discussion Some 10%–35% of CTs obtained in the ED for MTBI were not recommended according to the guidelines. Successful implementation of existing guidelines could decrease CT use in MTBI by up to 35%, leading to a significant reduction in radiation-induced cancers and health care costs.

This article summarizes the work and discussions of the funding and sustainability work group at the 2009 Academic Emergency Medicine consensus conference "Public Health in the ED: Surveillance, Screening, and Intervention." The funding and sustainability session participants were asked to address the following overarching question: "What are the opportunities and what is needed to encourage academic emergency medicine (EM) to take advantage of the opportunities for funding available for public health research initiatives and build stronger academic programs focusing on public health within EM?" Prior to the session, members of the group reviewed research funding for EM in public health, as well as the priorities of federal agencies and foundations. Recommendations for actions by EM summarize the findings of workshop.

The emergency department (ED) visit provides an opportunity to impact the health of the public throughout the entire spectrum of care, from prevention to treatment. As the federal government has a vested interest in funding research and providing programmatic opportunities that promote the health of the public, emergency medicine (EM) is prime to develop a research agenda to advance the field. EM researchers need to be aware of federal funding opportunities, which entails an understanding of the organizational structure of the federal agencies that fund medical research, and the rules and regulations governing applications for grants. Additionally, there are numerous funding streams outside of the National Institutes of Health (NIH; the primary federal health research agency). EM researchers should seek funding from agencies according to each agency's mission and aims. Finally, while funds from the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) are an important source of support for EM research, we need to look beyond traditional sources and appeal to other agencies with a vested interest in promoting public health in EDs. EM requires a broad skill set from a multitude of medical disciplines, and conducting research in the field will require looking for funding opportunities in a variety of traditional and not so traditional places within and without the federal government. The following is the discussion of a moderated session at the 2009 Academic Emergency Medicine consensus conference that included panel discussants from the National Institutes of Mental Health, Drug Abuse, and Alcoholism and Alcohol Abuse and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Further information is also provided to discuss those agencies and centers not represented.