1. Automatic Forecasting of Radiology Examination Volume Trends for Optimal Resource Planning and Allocation
- Author
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Joshua Chaim, H. Alberto Vargas, Joseph P. Erinjeri, Hedvig Hricak, Nicholas Kastango, Pierre Elnajjar, and Anton S. Becker
- Subjects
medicine.medical_specialty ,Radiological and Ultrasound Technology ,Mean squared error ,Computer science ,Mean squared prediction error ,Resource planning ,Markov chain Monte Carlo ,Radiological examination ,Article ,Total error ,Computer Science Applications ,symbols.namesake ,Artificial Intelligence ,symbols ,medicine ,Humans ,Resource allocation ,Radiology, Nuclear Medicine and imaging ,Prospective Studies ,Radiology ,Forecasting ,Retrospective Studies ,Volume (compression) - Abstract
The aim of the study was to evaluate the performance of the Prophet forecasting procedure, part of the Facebook open-source Artificial Intelligence portfolio, for forecasting variations in radiological examination volumes. Daily CT and MRI examination volumes from our institution were extracted from the radiology information system (RIS) database. Data from January 1, 2015, to December 31, 2019, was used for training the Prophet algorithm, and data from January 2020 was used for validation. Algorithm performance was then evaluated prospectively in February and August 2020. Total error and mean error per day were evaluated, and computational time was logged using different Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) samples. Data from 610,570 examinations were used for training; the majority were CTs (82.3%). During retrospective testing, prediction error was reduced from 19 to
- Published
- 2021