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Dengue is a major public health problem worldwide with distinct clinical manifestations: an acute presentation (dengue fever, DF) similar to other febrile illnesses (OFI) and a more severe, life-threatening form (severe dengue, SD). Due to nonspecific clinical presentation during the early phase of dengue infection, differentiating DF from OFI has remained a challenge, and current methods to determine severity of dengue remain poor early predictors. We present a prospective clinical cohort study conducted in Caracas, Venezuela from 2001–2005, designed to determine whether clinical and hematological parameters could distinguish DF from OFI, and identify early prognostic biomarkers of SD. From 204 enrolled suspected dengue patients, there were 111 confirmed dengue cases. Piecewise mixed effects regression and nonparametric statistics were used to analyze longitudinal records. Decreased serum albumin and fibrinogen along with increased D-dimer, thrombin-antithrombin complex, activated partial thromboplastin time and thrombin time were prognostic of SD on the day of defervescence. In the febrile phase, the day-to-day rates of change in serum albumin and fibrinogen concentration, along with platelet counts, were significantly decreased in dengue patients compared to OFI, while the day-to-day rates of change of lymphocytes (%) and thrombin time were increased. In dengue patients, the absolute lymphocytes to neutrophils ratio showed specific temporal increase, enabling classification of dengue patients entering the critical phase with an area under the ROC curve of 0.79. Secondary dengue patients had elongation of Thrombin time compared to primary cases while the D-dimer formation (fibrinolysis marker) remained always lower for secondary compared to primary cases. Based on partial analysis of 31 viral complete genomes, a high frequency of C-to-T transitions located at the third codon position was observed, suggesting deamination events with five major hot spots of amino acid polymorphic sites outside in non-structural proteins. No association of severe outcome was statistically significant for any of the five major polymorphic sites found. This study offers an improved understanding of dengue hemostasis and a novel way of approaching dengue diagnosis and disease prognosis using piecewise mixed effect regression modeling. It also suggests that a better discrimination of the day of disease can improve the diagnostic and prognostic classification power of clinical variables using ROC curve analysis. The piecewise mixed effect regression model corroborated key early clinical determinants of disease, and offers a time-series approach for future vaccine and pathogenesis clinical studies., Author summary Dengue fever results in a self-limiting, non-specific febrile illness. In approximately 10% of cases, the disease progresses to a severe, life-threatening syndrome. While hematological derangement is a key indicator of dengue, the mechanisms by which pathophysiological changes occur over the course of infection remain unclear. Additionally, there are limited clinical algorithms to facilitate rapid prognosis of dengue. We conducted a prospective clinical cohort study in Caracas, Venezuela to determine whether clinical and hematological parameters could distinguish dengue fever from other febrile illnesses, and identify early prognostic biomarkers of severe disease. Piecewise linear mixed effects regression models demonstrate that rates of change of albumin, fibrinogen, lymphocytes, platelets and thrombin time were significantly different between dengue and other febrile illnesses, and that the absolute value of albumin, fibrinogen, thrombin-antithrombin complex, thrombin time and partial thromboplastin time were prognostic of severe dengue on the day of defervescence. Our study offers extended insights into dengue pathogenesis and provides new approaches to dengue diagnosis and severity prognosis.

Background Lifelong healthy habits developed during childhood may prevent chronic diseases in adulthood. Interventions to promote these habits must begin early. The BONES (Beat Osteoporosis – Nourish and Exercise Skeletons) project assessed whether early elementary school children participating in a multifaceted health behavior change, after-school based intervention would improve bone quality and muscular strength and engage in more bone-strengthening behaviors. Methods The 2-year BONES (B) intervention included bone-strengthening physical activity (85 min/week), educational materials (2 days/week), and daily calcium-rich snacks (380 mg calcium/day) delivered by after-school program leaders. BONES plus Parent (B + P) included an additional parent education component. From 1999 to 2004, n = 83 after-school programs (N = 1434 children aged 6–9 years) in Massachusetts and Rhode Island participated in a group randomized trial with two intervention arms (B only, n = 25 programs; B + P, n = 33) and a control arm (C, n = 25). Outcome measures (primary: bone quality (stiffness index of the calcaneus) and muscular strength (grip strength and vertical jump); secondary: bone-strengthening behaviors (calcium-rich food knowledge, preference, and intake; and physical activity level (metabolic equivalent time (MET) score, and weight-bearing factor (WBF) score)) were recorded at baseline, and after years one and two. Analyses followed an intent-to-treat protocol, and focused on individual subjects’ trajectories along the three time points adjusting for baseline age and race via a mixed-effects regression framework. Analyses were performed with and without sex stratification. Results Children in B + P increased bone stiffness compared to C (p = 0.05); No significant changes were observed in muscle strength, food knowledge, or vertical jump. Children in B + P showed significant improvement in their MET and WBF scores compared to C (p Conclusion After-school programs, coupled with parental engagement, serving early elementary school children are a potentially feasible platform to deliver bone-strengthening behaviors to prevent osteoporosis in adulthood, with some encouraging bone and physical activity outcomes. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.govNCT00065247. Retrospectively registered. First posted July 22, 2003.

The Seifu et al. article is a start to a timely inquiry on policymakers' perceptions of mathematical modeling and simulations aimed to guide obesity prevention programs. These computational tools have the potential to transform the fields of public health policy. Yet, to be effective, a broad Data and Information Literacy Initiative is needed to instill policymakers with the willingness to become life-long learners, to adapt and accept new technologies, attitudes, information, and creative ways of thinking.

The article in this issue by O'Donnell et al stimulated my attention to the methods beyond randomized controlled trials that can help assess public health research and rank its utility in hierarchies of evidence. The future of public health policy research will surely combine computational power and the power of human ingenuity.

IntroductionDiet is a major modifiable risk factor for cardiometabolic disease; however, interpretable measures capturing impacts of overall diet on health that can be easily used by policymakers at the global/national levels are not readily available.MethodsWe developed the International Diet-Health Index (IDHI) to measure health impacts of dietary intake across 186 countries in 2010, using age-specific and sex-specific data on country-level dietary intake, effects of dietary factors on cardiometabolic diseases and country-specific cardiometabolic disease profiles. The index encompasses the impact of 11 foods/nutrients on 12 cardiometabolic diseases, the mediation of health effects of specific dietary intakes through blood pressure and body mass index and background disease prevalence in each country–age–sex group. We decomposed the index into IDHIbeneficial for risk-reducing factors, and IDHIadverse for risk-increasing factors. The flexible functional form of the IDHI allows inclusion of additional risk factors and diseases as data become available.ResultsBy sex, women experienced smaller detrimental cardiometabolic effects of diet than men: (females IDHIadverse range: −0.480 (5th percentile, 95th percentile: −0.932, –0.300) to −0.314 (−0.543, –0.213); males IDHIadverse range: (−0.617 (−1.054, –0.384) to −0.346 (−0.624, –0.222)). By age, middle-aged adults had highest IDHIbeneficial (females: 0.392 (0.235, 0.763); males: 0.415 (0.243, 0.949)) and younger adults had most extreme IDHIadverse (females: −0.480 (−0.932, –0.300); males: −0.617 (−1.054, –0.384)). Regionally, Central Latin America had the lowest IDHIoverall (−0.466 (−0.892, –0.159)), while Southeast Asia had the highest IDHIoverall (0.272 (−0.224, 0.903)). IDHIoverall was highest in low-income countries and lowest in upper middle-income countries (−0.039 (−0.317, 0.227) and −0.146 (−0.605, 0.303), respectively). Among 186 countries, Honduras had lowest IDHIoverall (−0.721 (−0.916, –0.207)), while Malaysia had highest IDHIoverall (0.904 (0.435, 1.190)).ConclusionIDHI encompasses dietary intakes, health effects and country disease profiles into a single index, allowing policymakers a useful means of assessing/comparing health impacts of diet quality between populations.

BACKGROUND: Accumulating evidence links excessive consumption of processed meat to an increased risk of obesity, diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, and some cancers. Yet, trends in consumption of different types of processed meat in the US have not been quantified. OBJECTIVE: The aim of the study was to characterize trends in consumption of different types of processed meat among US adults in relation to the consumption of unprocessed red meat, poultry, and fish/shellfish in the past 18 years and their purchase locations. DESIGN: Dietary data collected from U.S. adults aged 20+ years completing at least 1 valid 24-hour diet recall from 9 cycles of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) (1999–2016) were used to evaluate the trends in mean consumption of processed meat, unprocessed red meat, poultry, and fish/shellfish. PARTICIPANTS/SETTING: Nationally representative sample of 43,995 US adults aged 20+ years. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Survey-weighted, energy-adjusted mean consumption of processed meat, unprocessed red meat, poultry, and fish/shellfish. STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: Trends in mean intake were assessed by treating the 2-year survey cycle as a continuous variable in survey-weighted linear regression models. Changes in mean intake was computed as the difference in mean intake between the earliest (1999–2000) and latest (2015–2016) cycle. RESULTS: The mean consumption of processed meat among US adults remained unchanged in the past 18 years (mean change = 4.22 g/wk, p-trend = 0.95). The top 5 processed meats consumed by US adults in 2015–2016 were luncheon meat (mean intake = 73.3 g/wk), sausage (45.5 g/wk), hot dog (17.5 g/wk), ham (17.5 g/wk), and bacon (8.6 g/wk), accounting for 39.3%, 24.4%, 9.4%, 9.4%, and 4.6%, respectively, of the total processed meat consumption in the US. During the same period, the mean consumption declined for unprocessed red meat (mean change = - 56.7 g/wk, p-trend

Rotavirus is a leading cause of acute diarrhea in children worldwide. Costa Rica recently started universal rotavirus vaccinations for infants with a two-dose schedule in February 2019. We aimed to study the seasonality of rotavirus during the pre-vaccination era. We retrospectively studied a six-year period of hospital admissions due to rotavirus gastroenteritis. We estimated seasonal peak timing and relative intensities using trend-adjusted negative binomial regression models with the &delta, method. We assessed the relationship between rotavirus cases and weather characteristics and estimated their effects for the current month, one-month prior and two months prior, by using Pearson correlation coefficients. A total of 798 cases were analyzed. Rotavirus cases predominated in the first five months of the year. On average, the peak of admissions occurred between late-February and early-March. During the seasonal peaks, the monthly count tended to increase 2.5&ndash, 2.75 times above the seasonal nadir. We found the strongest negative association of monthly hospitalizations and joint percentiles of precipitation and minimal temperature at a lag of two months (R = &minus, 0.265, p = 0.027) and we detected correlations of &minus, 0.218, &minus, 0.223, and &minus, 0.226 (p &lt, 0.05 for all three estimates) between monthly cases and the percentile of precipitation at lags 0, 1, and 2 months. In the warm tropical climate of Costa Rica, the increase in rotavirus hospitalizations coincided with dry and cold weather conditions with a two-month lag. The findings serve as the base for predictive modeling and estimation of the impact of a nation-wide vaccination campaign on pediatric rotaviral infection morbidity.

Objective In the presented study, we examined the impact of school holidays (Autumn, Winter, Summer, and Spring Breaks) and social events (Super Bowl, NBA Finals, World Series, and Black Friday) for five age groups ( 65 years) on four health outcomes of influenza (total tested, all influenza positives, positives for influenza A, and B) in Milwaukee, WI, in 2004-2009 using routine surveillance. Introduction Influenza viral infection is contentious, has a short incubation period, yet preventable if multiple barriers are employed. At some extend school holidays and travel restrictions serve as a socially accepted control measure 1,2 . A study of a spatiotemporal spread of influenza among school-aged children in Belgium illustrated that changes in mixing patterns are responsible for altering disease seasonality 3 . Stochastic numerical simulations suggested that weekends and holidays can delay disease seasonal peaks, mitigate the spread of infection, and slow down the epidemic by periodically dampening transmission. While Christmas holidays had the largest impact on transmission, other school breaks may also help in reducing an epidemic size. Contrary to events reducing social mixing, sporting events and mass gatherings facilitate the spread of infections 4 . A study on county-level vital statistics of the US from 1974-2009 showed that Super Bowl social mixing affects influenza dissemination by decreasing mortality rates in older adults in Bowl-participating counties. The effect is most pronounced for highly virulent influenza strains and when the Super Bowl occurs closer to the influenza seasonal peak. Simulation studies exploring how social mixing affects influenza spread 5 demonstrated that impact of the public gathering on prevalence of influenza depends on time proximity to epidemic peak. While the effects of holidays and social events on seasonal influenza have been explored in surveillance time series and agent-based modeling studies, the understanding of the differential effects across age groups is incomplete. Methods The City of Milwaukee Health Department Laboratory (MHDL), Wisconsin routinely collect tests from residents of metropolitan areas and vicinities of the Marquette University (MU). We obtained weekly counts of total tested, all influenza positives, positives for influenza A and B, from MHDL between 5/16/04-3/7/09 (before the surge of tests associated with “swine flu”). Cases for

Summary In an Indian birth cohort, we demonstrate a high and early burden of cryptosporidiosis by polymerase chain reaction and serology. Reinfection was common and infections clustered in a subset of children. Prior infection provided some protection against subsequent infection, but not disease., Background. Cryptosporidium is a leading cause of moderate to severe childhood diarrhea in resource-poor settings. Understanding the natural history of cryptosporidiosis and the correlates of protection are essential to develop effective and sustainable approaches to disease control and prevention. Methods. Children (N = 497) were recruited at birth in semiurban slums in Vellore, India, and followed for 3 years with twice-weekly home visits. Stool samples were collected every 2 weeks and during diarrheal episodes were tested for Cryptosporidium species by polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Serum samples obtained every 6 months were evaluated for seroconversion, defined as a 4-fold increase in immunoglobulin G directed against Cryptosporidium gp15 and/or Cp23 antigens between consecutive sera. Results. Of 410 children completing follow-up, 397 (97%) acquired cryptosporidiosis by 3 years of age. PCR identified 1053 episodes of cryptosporidiosis, with an overall incidence of 0.86 infections per child-year by stool and serology. The median age for the first infection was 9 (interquartile range, 4–17) months, indicating early exposure. Although infections were mainly asymptomatic (693 [66%]), Cryptosporidium was identified in 9.4% of diarrheal episodes. The proportion of reinfected children was high (81%) and there was clustering of asymptomatic and symptomatic infections (P < .0001 for both). Protection against infection increased with the order of infection but was only 69% after 4 infections. Cryptosporidium hominis (73.3%) was the predominant Cryptosporidium species, and there was no species-specific protection. Conclusions. There is a high burden of endemic cryptosporidiosis in southern India. Clustering of infection is suggestive of host susceptibility. Multiple reinfections conferred some protection against subsequent infection.

OBJECTIVES: Anti-inflammatory diets have been suggested to improve psychological health. This research evaluated the combined effects of consuming an anti-inflammatory diet and caloric restriction (CR) on changes in perceived stress and health-related quality of life in a healthy, non-obese population. METHODS: We conducted a secondary analysis of the publicly available CALERIE data. Participants were randomized to a 2 year CR intervention (n = 143) or an ad libitum Control group (n = 75) and self-selected their dietary intake. An energy-adjusted dietary inflammatory index (DII) was calculated based on 28 components from self-reported food records. Self-reported stress and general health outcomes were measured using validated questionnaires. Linear mixed models were used to assess changes in each outcome from baseline to 12 and 24 months. Models were adjusted for age, sex, baseline outcome measure, change in body fat, and a treatment by DII interaction term. RESULTS: On average, participants were 38.1 ± 7.2 years old with a BMI of 25.1 ± 1.7 kg/m(2). Baseline characteristics, including the DII, stress, and general health, did not differ with randomization. There was no significant association between temporal changes in DII and changes in stress or general health in the CR or Control groups. On average, both groups tended to report higher stress at 12 months; however, there was no difference in perceived stress between groups (adjusted mean difference [MD]: 0.5; 95% confidence interval [CI]: −0.4, 1.5; P = 0.25). There was an improvement in reported general health in the CR group at 12 months (MD: 4.1; 95% CI: 2.2, 6.0; P

BACKGROUND: Phylloquinone is the primary form of vitamin K in the diet and circulation. Large intra- and interindividual variances in circulating phylloquinone have been partially attributed to age. However, little is known about the nondietary factors that influence phylloquinone absorption and metabolism. Similarly, it is not known if phylloquinone absorption is altered by the individual's existing vitamin K status. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this secondary substudy was to compare plasma response with deuterium-labeled phylloquinone intake in older and younger adults after dietary phylloquinone depletion and repletion. METHODS: Forty-two older [mean ± SD age: 67.2 ± 8.0 y; body mass index (BMI; in kg/m(2)): 25.4 ± 4.6; n = 12 men, 9 women] and younger (mean ± SEM age: 31.8 ± 6.6 y; BMI: 25.5 ± 3.3; n = 9 men, 12 women) adults were maintained on sequential 28-d phylloquinone depletion (∼10 µg phylloquinone/d) and 28-d phylloquinone repletion (∼500 µg phylloquinone/d) diets. On the 23rd d of each diet phase, participants consumed deuterated phylloquinone-rich collard greens ((2)H-phylloquinone). Plasma and urinary outcome measures over 72 h were compared by age group, sex, and dietary phase via 2-factor repeated-measures ANOVA. RESULTS: The plasma (2)H-phylloquinone area under the curve (AUC) did not differ in response to phylloquinone depletion or repletion, but was 34% higher in older than in younger adults (P = 0.02). However, plasma (2)H-phylloquinone AUC was highly correlated with the serum triglyceride (TG) AUC (r(2)( )= 0.45). After adjustment for serum TG response, the age effect on the plasma (2)H-phylloquinone AUC was no longer significant. CONCLUSIONS: Plasma (2)H-phylloquinone response did not differ between phylloquinone depletion and repletion in older and younger adults. The age effect observed was explained by the serum TG response and was completely attenuated after adjustment. Plasma response to phylloquinone intake, therefore, seems to be a predominantly lipid-driven effect and not dependent on existing vitamin K status. More research is required to differentiate the effect of endogenous compared with exogenous lipids on phylloquinone absorption. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT00336232.

BackgroundKnowledge of urogenital schistosomiasis can empower individuals to limit surface water contact and participate in mass drug administration campaigns, but nothing is currently known about the schistosomiasis knowledge that schoolchildren have in Ghana. We developed and implemented a survey tool aiming to assess the knowledge of urogenital schistosomiasis (treatment, transmission, prevention, symptoms) among science teaches and primary and junior high school students in the Eastern Region of Ghana.MethodsWe developed a 22-question knowledge survey tool and administered it to 875 primary and 938 junior high school students from 74 schools in 37 communities in the Eastern Region of Ghana. Teachers (n = 57) answered 20 questions matched to student questions. We compared knowledge scores (as percent of correct answers) across topics, gender, and class year and assessed associations with teacher's knowledge scores using t-tests, chi-squared tests, univariate, and multivariate linear regression, respectively.ResultsStudents performed best when asked about symptoms (mean±SD: 76±21% correct) and prevention (mean±SD: 69±25% correct) compared with transmission (mean±SD: 50±15% correct) and treatment (mean±SD: 44±23% correct) (pConclusionsOur survey parsed four components of student and teacher knowledge. We found strong knowledge in several realms, as well as knowledge gaps, especially on transmission and treatment. Addressing relevant gaps among students and science teachers in UGS-endemic areas may help high-risk groups recognize risky water contact activities, improve participation in mass drug administration, and spark interest in science by making it practical.

Because of air quality management and control, traffic-related air pollution has declined in Quito, Ecuador. We evaluated the effect of a city-wide 5-year air pollution control program on the occurrence of acute respiratory illness (ARI). We compared two studies conducted at the same location in Quito: in 2000, 2 years before the policy to control vehicle emission was introduced, and in 2007. Each study involved ~ 730 children aged 6-12 years, observed for 15 weeks. We examined associations between carboxyhemoglobin (COHb) serum concentration-an exposure proxy for carbon monoxide (CO)-ambient CO, and ARI in both cohorts. In 2007, we found a 48% reduction in the ARI incidence (RR 0.52; 95% CI 0.45-0.62, p 0.0001), and 92% decrease in the percentage of children with COHb 2.5% as compared to the 2000 study. We found no association between COHb concentrations above the safe level of 2.5% and the ARI incidence (p = 0.736). The decline in air pollution due to vehicle emissions control was associated with a lower incidence of respiratory illness in school children.

People with Parkinson’s disease (PD) often experience a decrease in their facial expressivity, but little is known about how the coordinated movements across regions of the face are impaired in PD. The face has neurologically independent regions that coordinate to articulate distinct social meanings that others perceive as gestalt expressions, and so understanding how different regions of the face are affected is important. Using the Facial Action Coding System, this study comprehensively measured spontaneous facial expression across 600 frames for a multiple case study of people with PD who were rated as having varying degrees of facial expression deficits, and created correlation matrices for frequency and intensity of produced muscle activations across different areas of the face. Data visualization techniques were used to create temporal and correlational mappings of muscle action in the face at different degrees of facial expressivity. Results showed that as severity of facial expression deficit increased, there was a decrease in number, duration, intensity, and coactivation of facial muscle action. This understanding of how regions of the parkinsonian face move independently and in conjunction with other regions will provide a new focus for future research aiming to model how facial expression in PD relates to disease progression, stigma, and quality of life.

Few studies assess agreement amongSchistosoma haematobiumeggs, measured hematuria, and self-reported metrics. We assessed agreement among four metrics at a single time point and analyzed the stability of infection across two time points with a single metric. We used data from the Eastern Region of Ghana and constructed logistic regression models. Girls reporting macrohematuria were 4.1 times more likely to have measured hematuria than girls not reporting macrohematuria (CI95%: 2.1–7.9); girls who swim were 3.6 times more likely to have measured hematuria than nonswimmers (CI95%: 1.6–7.9). For boys, neither self-reported metric was predictive. Girls with measured hematuria in 2010 were 3.3 times more likely to be positive in 2012 (CI95%: 1.01–10.5), but boys showed no association. Boys with measured hematuria in 2008 were 6.0 times more likely to have measured hematuria in 2009 (CI95%: 1.5–23.9) and those with eggs in urine in 2008 were 4.8 times more likely to have eggs in urine in 2009 (CI95%: 1.2–18.8). For girls, measured hematuria in 2008 predicted a positive test in 2009 (OR = 2.8; CI95%: 1.1–6.8), but egg status did not. Agreement between dipstick results and eggs suggests continued dipstick used is appropriate. Self-reported swimming should be further examined. For effective disease monitoring, we recommend annual dipstick testing.

The Flint Water Crisis-due to changes of water source and treatment procedures-has revealed many unsolved social, environmental, and public health problems for US drinking water, including opportunistic premise plumbing pathogens (OPPP). The true health impact of OPPP, especially in vulnerable populations such as the elderly, is largely unknown. We explored 108 claims in the largest US national uniformly collected data repository to determine rates and costs of OPPP-related hospitalizations. In 1991-2006, 617,291 cases of three selected OPPP infections resulted in the elderly alone of $0.6 billion USD per year of payments. Antibiotic resistance significantly increased OPPP illness costs that are likely to be underreported. More precise estimates for OPPP burdens could be obtained if better clinical, microbiological, administrative, and environmental monitoring data were cross-linked. An urgent dialog across governmental and disciplinary divides, and studies on preventing OPPP through drinking water exposure, are warranted.

By investing in healthy human life we are investing in our social capital, the primary treasure of a modern technologically advanced society. In rethinking the definition of health from a new interdisciplinary viewpoint, I argue that health can be measured by satisfaction with life fulfillment and by abilities that permit an individual to perform tasks demanded by a society. While considering health as a property of a dynamic system governed by social and environmental determinants, a balance between societal and personal responsibility for health and wellbeing has to be maintained to protect those who have limited opportunities to "use their biologically given and personally acquired potentials" or to entertain their rights of healthy living standards. Instead of separating the biologically given and personally acquired potentials, I suggest capitalizing on emerging information, technologies, and materials aiming to enhance human potentials, both physical and intellectual.

Purpose To determine the cumulative worldwide incidence of infectious endophthalmitis and associated vision loss after Boston keratoprosthesis (B-KPro) Type I/II implantation and to propose both safe and inexpensive prophylactic antibiotic regimens. Methods Two retrospective methods were used to determine the incidence, visual outcomes and aetiologies of infectious endophthalmitis associated with the B-KPro divided per decade: (i) systematic review of the literature from 1990 through January 2013 and (ii) a surveillance survey sent to all surgeons who implanted B-KPros through 2010 with 1-year minimum follow-up. In addition, a single-Boston surgeon 20-year experience was examined. Results From 1990 through 2010, there were 4729 B-KPros implanted worldwide by 209 U.S. surgeons and 159 international surgeons. The endophthalmitis cumulative mean incidence declined from 12% during its first decade of use to about 3% during its second decade in the Unites States and about 5% internationally during the second decade. There remains a large incidence range both in the United States (1–12.5%) and internationally (up to 17%). Poor compliance with daily topical antibiotics is an important risk factor. While Gram-positive organisms remained dominant, fungal infections emerged during the second decade. Conclusions Daily prophylactic topical antibiotics have dramatically reduced the endophthalmitis incidence. Although Gram-positive organisms are the most common aetiology, antimicrobials must be inclusive of Gram-negative organisms. Selection of prophylactic regimens should be tailored to local antibiotic susceptibility patterns, be cost-effective, and should not promote the emergence of antimicrobial resistance. An example of a broad-spectrum, low-cost prophylactic option for non-autoimmune patients includes trimethoprim/polymyxinB once daily.

Under the Clean Water Act, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) collects information from states on intended use and impairment of each water body. We explore the feasibility of using these data, collected for regulatory purposes, for public health analyses. Combining EPA impairment data and stream hydrology information we estimated the percent of stream length impaired for any use, recreational use, or drinking water use per county in the US as exposure variables. For health outcomes we abstracted county-level hospitalization rates of gastrointestinal infections, GI (ICD-9CM 001-009 excluding 008.45) and gastrointestinal symptoms, GS (ICD-9CM 558.9, 787) among US adults aged 65 years and older from the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services (1991–2004). Linear mixed-effects models were used to assess county-level associations between percent impaired waters and hospitalization rates adjusted for population density, a proxy for person-to-person transmission. Contrary to expectation, both GI and GS were negatively associated with any water impairment in adjusted models (GI: −0.052, 95 % CI: −0.077, −0.028; GS: −0.438, 95 % CI: −0.702, −0.174). GI was also negatively associated with recreational water impairment (−0.079, 95 % CI: −0.123, −0.036 after adjustment). Neither outcome was associated with drinking water impairment. Limited state data were reported to the EPA for specific recreational (27 states) and drinking (13 states) water impairment, thus limiting the power of the study. Though limited, this analysis demonstrates the feasibility of utilizing regulatory data for public health analyses.

Background. A quasi-experimental study was conducted to determine whether or not a protected water supply (bottled drinking water) could prevent or delay cryptosporidial infections among children residing in an endemic community. Methods. A total of 176 children residing in a semiurban slum area in southern India were enrolled preweaning and received either bottled (n = 90) or municipal (n = 86) drinking water based on residence in specific streets. Weekly surveillance visits were conducted until children reached their second birthday. Stool samples were collected every month and during diarrheal episodes, and were tested for the presence of Cryptosporidium species by polymerase chain reaction. Differences in the incidence of cryptosporidiosis between bottled and municipal water groups were compared using Poisson survival models, and a propensity score model was developed to adjust for the effect of potential confounders. Results. A total of 186 episodes of cryptosporidiosis, mostly asymptomatic, were observed in 118 (67%) children during the follow-up period at a rate of 0.59 episodes per child-year. Diarrhea associated with Cryptosporidium species tended to be longer in duration and more severe. Stunting at 6 months was associated with a higher risk of cryptosporidiosis (rate ratio [RR] = 1.40; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.03–1.91). A higher gastrointestinal disease burden was also seen in children with cryptosporidiosis. Drinking bottled water was not associated with a reduced risk of cryptosporidiosis (adjusted RR = 0.86; 95% CI, .60–1.23). Conclusions. This study documented a high burden of cryptosporidiosis among children in an endemic Indian slum community. The lack of association between drinking bottled water and cryptosporidiosis suggests possible spread from asymptomatically infected individuals involving multiple transmission pathways.

Older adults are highly vulnerable to the detriment of extreme weather. The rapid non-linear increase in heat-related morbidity is difficult to quantify, hindering the attribution of direct effects of exposure on severe health outcomes. We examine the effects of ambient temperatures on heat-related hospitalizations (HH) among the elderly in presence of strong seasonality and by assessing the effects caused by the first and subsequent seasonal heatwaves. We empirically derived the thresholds for a heatwave episode in Boston MSA based on 16 years of daily observations. We compared the health risks of heatwaves using the proposed and four alternative definitions. 701 cases of HH in older residents of Boston area were examined using harmonic regression models, designed to capture the non-linear effects of ambient temperatures and heatwave episodes when the night-time temperature is above 65.5 °F for 3 consecutive nights. The overall relative risk of HH associated with a heatwave episode was 6.9 [95%CI:4.8–9.8]. The relative risk of HH associated with the first heatwave increases up to 13.3 [95%CI:7.4–24.0]. The risk declined to 3.7 [95%CI:2.4–5.8] for the subsequent heatwave. Four other commonly used heatwave definitions confirmed these findings. Public health actions have to target the first heatwave to maximize the impact of preventive measures.

The study examined relationships among meteorological parameters, water quality and diarrheal disease counts in two urban and three rural sites in Tamil Nadu, India. Disease surveillance was conducted between August 2010 and March 2012; concurrently water samples from street-level taps in piped distribution systems and from household storage containers were tested for pH, nitrate, total dissolved solids and total and fecal coliforms. Methodological advances in data collection (concurrent prospective disease surveillance and environmental monitoring) and analysis (preserving temporality within the data through time series analysis) were used to quantify independent effects of meteorological conditions and water quality on diarrheal risk. The utility of a local calendar in communicating seasonality is also presented. Piped distribution systems in the study area showed high seasonal fluctuations in water quality. Higher ambient temperature decreased and higher rainfall increased diarrheal risk with temperature being the predominant factor in urban and rainfall in rural sites. Associations with microbial contamination were inconsistent; however, disease risk in the urban sites increased with higher median household total coliform concentrations. Understanding seasonal patterns in health outcomes and their temporal links to environmental exposures may lead to improvements in prospective environmental and disease surveillance tailored to addressing public health problems.

The frequency of hospitalization among the elderly in the United States caused by gastrointestinal diseases between 1991 and 2004 increased dramatically, especially hospitalization of elderly individuals with nonspecific diagnoses. We analyzed 6 640 304 gastrointestinal disease–associated hospitalization records in this 14-year period by comparing the peak times of nonspecific gastrointestinal diseases with those of specific diseases. We found that most nonspecific gastrointestinal diseases peak concurrently with viral enteritis, suggesting a lack of diagnostic testing for viruses, which may adversely affect the efficiency of prevention, surveillance, and treatment efforts.

OBJECTIVES: To assess how influenza vaccination coverage in children is related to pneumonia and influenza (PI an exponential acceleration in the P&I rates with age was observed for each influenza season. State- and season-specific P&I rate accelerations were regressed against the percentage of vaccinated children, older adults, or both using mixed effects models. SETTING: U.S. population, 2002 to 2006. PARTICIPANTS: U.S. population aged 65 and older. MEASUREMENTS: State-level influenza annual vaccination coverage data in children and older adults were obtained from the National Immunization Survey and the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, respectively. RESULTS: Child influenza vaccination coverage was negatively associated with age acceleration in P&I, whereas influenza vaccination in the older adults themselves was not significantly associated with P&I in older adults. CONCLUSION: Vaccination of children against influenza may induce herd immunity against influenza for older adults and has the potential to be more beneficial to older adults than the existing policy of preventing influenza by vaccinating older adults themselves.

This analysis examines the potential for the elderly to receive indirect protection from pneumonia and influenza (P&I) from vaccination of children. Using data from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, the National Immunization Survey, and the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, mixed-effects models were used to assess associations between vaccination coverage and P&I on the state level overall and by urbanicity and income. As vaccination coverage in children increased, the state-level P&I rates in seniors decreased (beta=-0.040, -0.074 to 0.006), where beta represents the expected change in the logged age-associated rate of disease increase for a one-percentage point increase in vaccination coverage. Increasing vaccination coverage in the elderly was associated with an increase in P&I rates (beta=0.045, 0.011-0.077) in seniors. The degree of association was more prominent in urban and high income areas. The consistent associations between influenza in the elderly and vaccination coverage in children suggest that routine vaccination of children may impart some indirect protection to the elderly.

Please cite this paper as: Lofgren et al. (2010) Disproportional effects in populations of concern for pandemic influenza: insights from seasonal epidemics in Wisconsin, 1967–2004. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses 4(4), 205–212. Background Influenza infections pose a serious burden of illness in the United States. We explored age, influenza strains, and seasonal epidemic curves in relation to influenza-associated mortality. Methods The state of Wisconsin death records for the years 1967–2004 were analyzed for three distinct populations: children, general population, and elderly. Yearly parameters of duration, intensity, and peak timing were obtained from Annual Harmonic Regression coefficients. Results Overall, elderly had the highest rate and intensity of influenza mortality. The children and infant subpopulations showed an earlier and wider range in duration of peak timing than elderly. During A/Hong Kong/1/68 pandemic years, the elderly subpopulation showed no change in mortality rates while a sharp increase was observed for the children and infant subpopulations. In epidemic years such as 1966–1969, children and infants showed a dramatic decrease in the severity of influenza outbreaks over time. The elderly had increased baseline mortality in years (1986–1987) where predominant strain was characterized as A/Singapore/6/86. Conclusions Our findings indicate that the younger populations may have benefited from the lack of a major shift in viral strains for a number of decades. Furthermore, we demonstrate considerable heterogeneity in the spread of seasonal influenza across age categories, with implications both for the modeling of influenza seasonality, risk assessment, and effective distribution and timing of vaccine and prophylactic interventions.

OBJECTIVES: To compare the demographic and geographic patterns of pneumonia and influenza (P&I) hospitalizations in older adults with dementia with those of the U.S. population and to examine the relationship between healthcare accessibility and P&I. DESIGN: Observational study using historical medical claims from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) and CMS records supplemented with information derived from other large national sources. SETTING: Retrospective analysis of medical records uniformly collected over a 5-year period with comprehensive national coverage. PARTICIPANTS: A study population representative of more than 95% of all people aged 65 and older residing in the continental United States. MEASUREMENTS: Six million two hundred seventy-seven thousand six hundred eighty-four records of P&I between 1998 and 2002 were abstracted, and county-specific outcomes for hospitalization rates of P&I, mean length of hospital stay, and percentage of deaths occurring in a hospital setting were estimated. Associations with county-specific elderly population density, percentage of nursing home residents, median household income per capita, and rurality index were assessed. RESULTS: Rural and poor counties had the highest rate of P&I and percentage of influenza. Patients with dementia had a lower frequency of influenza diagnosis, a shorter length of hospital stay, and 1.5 times as high a rate of death as the national average. CONCLUSION: The results suggest strong disparities in healthcare practices in rural locations and vulnerable populations; infrastructure, proximity, and access to healthcare are significant predictors of influenza morbidity and mortality. These findings have important implications for influenza vaccination, testing, and treatment policies and practices targeting the growing fraction of patients with cognitive impairment.

Extreme weather affects the timing and intensity of infectious outbreaks, the resurgence and redistribution of infections, and it causes disturbances in human-environment interactions. Environmental stressors with high thermoregulatory demands require susceptible populations to undergo physiological adaptive processes potentially compromising immune function and increasing susceptibility to infection. In assessing associations between environmental exposures and infectious diseases, failure to account for a latent period between time of exposure and time of disease manifestation may lead to severe underestimation of the effects. In a population, health effects of an episode of exposure are distributed over a range of time lags. To consider such time-distributed lags is a challenging task given that the length of a latent period varies from hours to months and depends on the type of pathogen, individual susceptibility to the pathogen, dose of exposure, route of transmission, and many other factors. The two main objectives of this communication are to introduce an approach to modeling time-distributed effect of exposures to infection cases and to demonstrate this approach in an analysis of the association between high ambient temperature and daily incidence of enterically transmitted infections. The study is supplemented with extensive simulations to examine model sensitivity to response magnitude, exposure frequency, and extent of latent period.

We show that the microsporidian fungus Enterocytozoon bieneusi is associated with lower rates of weight gain in children in Uganda with persistent diarrhea. This relationship remained after controlling for HIV and concurrent cryptosporidiosis. Children with microsporidiosis were predicted to weigh 1.3 kg less than children without microsporidiosis at 5 years of age.

To assess whether adolescent obesity is associated with risk for development of major depressive disorder (MDD) or anxiety disorder. Obesity has been linked to psychosocial difficulties among youth.Analysis of a prospective community-based cohort originally from upstate New York, assessed four times over 20 years. Participants (n = 776) were 9 to 18 years old in 1983; subsequent assessments took place in 1985 to 1986 (n = 775), 1991 to 1994 (n = 776), and 2001 to 2003 (n = 661). Using Cox proportional hazards analysis, we evaluated the association of adolescent (age range, 12-17.99 years) weight status with risk for subsequent MDD or anxiety disorder (assessed at each wave by structured diagnostic interviews) in males and females. A total of 701 participants were not missing data on adolescent weight status and hador = 1 subsequent assessments. MDD and anxiety disorder analyses included 674 and 559 participants (free of current or previous MDD or anxiety disorder), respectively. Adolescent obesity was defined as body mass index above the age- and gender-specific 95th percentile of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention growth reference.Adolescent obesity in females predicted an increased risk for subsequent MDD (adjusted hazard ratio (HR) = 3.9; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.3, 11.8) and for anxiety disorder (HR = 3.8; CI = 1.3, 11.3). Adolescent obesity in males was not statistically significantly associated with risk for MDD (HR = 1.5; CI = 0.5, 3.5) or anxiety disorder (HR = 0.7; CI = 0.2, 2.9).Females obese as adolescents may be at increased risk for development of depression or anxiety disorders.

Summary Background Childhood vaccination remains the focus of heated public debate. Parents struggle to understand the potential risks associated with vaccination but both parents and physicians assume that they understand the risks associated with infection. This study was done to characterise how modern vaccination practices have altered patient risks from infection. Methods In this modelling study, we use mathematical analysis to explore how modern-era vaccination practices have changed the risks of severe outcomes for some infections by changing the landscape for disease transmission. We show these effects using published data from outbreaks in the USA for measles, chickenpox, and rubella. Calculation of risk estimation was the main outcome of this study. Findings Our calculations show that negative outcomes are 4·5 times worse for measles, 2·2 times worse for chickenpox, and 5·8 times worse for rubella than would be expected in a pre-vaccine era in which the average age at infection would have been lower. Interpretation As vaccination makes preventable illness rarer, for some diseases, it also increases the expected severity of each case. Because estimates of case risks rely on data for severity generated during a pre-vaccine era they underestimate negative outcomes in the modern post-vaccine epidemiological landscape. Physicians and parents should understand when making decisions about their children's health and safety that remaining unvaccinated in a predominantly vaccine-protected community exposes their children to the most severe possible outcomes for many preventable diseases. Funding None.

SUMMARYDiarrhoeal diseases are major causes of morbidity and mortality in developing countries. This longitudinal study aimed to identify controllable environmental drivers of intestinal infections amidst a highly contaminated drinking water supply in urban slums and villages of Vellore, Tamil Nadu in southern India. Three hundred households with children (P

The session will explore past collaborations between the statistician panelists and public health departments to highlight approaches that have and have not been effective and to recommend effective, sustainable relationship strategies for mutual advancement of practical disease surveillance and relevant academic research. Panelists will describe experiences working with health departments, including actual applications as examples. Issues discussed will include requirements analysis, scoping technical problems for health department utility, adaptation of traditional statistical methods, and management of changing data environments. Panelists will derive advice for public health practitioners seeking help in forming relationships, framing problems, communicating results, and seeking funding.

Influenza (or “flu”) leads to the hospitalization of more than 200,000 people yearly and results in 36,000 deaths from flu or flu-related complications in the United States ([15][1]), striking both the elderly and infant populations particularly hard ([24][2]). Two members of the

Seasonality, a systematic periodic occurrence of events over the course of a year, is a well-known phenomenon in life and health sciences. Understanding seasonal fluctuations in diseases patterns presents us with a major challenge. To develop efficient strategies for disease prevention and control, we need to grasp the main determinants of temporal variations and their interactions. This paper will introduce the notion of seasonality by outlining several of its factors, using as illustrations respiratory and enteric water- or food-borne infections.

Outdoor carbon monoxide comes mainly from vehicular emissions, and high concentrations occur in areas with heavy traffic congestion. CO binds to hemoglobin, forming carboxyhemoglobin (COHb), and reduces oxygen delivery. We investigated the link between the adverse effects of CO on the respiratory system using COHb as a marker for chronic CO exposure. We examined the relationship between acute respiratory infections (ARIs) and COHb concentrations in school-age children living in urban and suburban areas of Quito, Ecuador. We selected three schools located in areas with different traffic intensities and enrolled 960 children. To adjust for potential confounders we conducted a detailed survey. In a random subsample of 295 children, we determined that average COHb concentrations were significantly higher in children attending schools in areas with high and moderate traffic, compared with the low-traffic area. The percentage of children with COHb concentrations above the safe level of 2.5% were 1, 43, and 92% in low-, moderate-, and high-traffic areas, respectively. Children with COHb above the safe level are 3.25 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.65–6.38] times more likely to have ARI than children with COHb < 2.5%. Furthermore, with each percent increase in COHb above the safety level, children are 1.15 (95% CI, 1.03–1.28) times more likely to have an additional case of ARI. Our findings provide strong evidence of the relation between CO exposure and susceptibility to respiratory infections.

Russia has the world's second highest incarceration rate after the USA. These two countries have less than 7% of the world population, but they harbor approximately one-third of all prisoners (i). Although the issues of morbidity and mortality in its penitentiaries are of great consequence, there is little literature on prison health in Russia. The review of mortality and morbidity in Russian penitentiaries by Bobrik et al. fills this gap and produces a surprising conclusion: prisoners in Russia (who are mostly males) have a substantially lower risk of death than free-living Russian males.

Dairy food consumption and body weight and fatness studied longitudinally over the adolescent period

Background: This report describes the prevalence of overweight and obesity and estimates the disease burden associated with excess weight in ambulatory Veterans Affairs (VA) patients. Methods: Height and weight were measured, and self-reported age and self-reported morbidities were obtained for 1,731 patients. Prevalence odds ratios explain the association of self-reported disease on increasing weight status category using body mass index. Results: Seventy-five percent of the participants were overweight or obese. Obesity was significantly higher in the younger patients. Graded increases in odds ratios were observed with increasing severity of overweight and obesity for all morbidities, except heart disease. Conclusion: Overweight, obesity, and associated disease burden are prevalent in the VA health care system, particularly in younger VA patients, which may contribute to the higher prevalence of certain morbidities observed in VA populations compared with private sector outpatients. Department of Veterans Affairs should emphasize obesity prevention and treatment during the design and implementation of ambulatory care services.

Despite availability of high quality medical records, health care systems often do not have the resources or tools to utilize these data efficiently. Yet, hospital-based, laboratory-confirmed records may pave the way for building reliable surveillance systems capable of monitoring temporal trends of emerging infections. In this communication, we present a new tool to compress and visualize medical records with a local population profile (LPP) approach, which transforms information into statistically comparable patterns. We provide a step-by-step tutorial on how to build, interpret, and expand the use of LPP using hospitalization records of laboratory-confirmed cholera. We abstracted case information from the databases maintained by the Department of Clinical Microbiology at Christian Medical College in Vellore, India. We used a single-year age distribution to construct LPPs for O1, O139, and non O1/O139 serotypes of Vibrio cholerae. Disease counts and hospitalization rates were converted into fitted kernel-based probability densities. We formally compared LPPs with the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, and created multi-panel visuals to depict temporal trend, age distribution, and hospitalization rates simultaneously. Our first implementation of LPPs revealed information that is typically gathered from surveillance systems such as: i) estimates of the demographic distribution of diseases and identification of a population at risk, ii) changes in the dominant pathogen presence; and iii) trends in disease occurrence. The LPP demonstrated the benefit of increased resolution in pattern detection of disease for different Vibrio cholerae serotypes and two demographic categories by showing patterns and anomalies that would be obscured by traditional methods of analysis and visualization. LPP can be used effectively to compile basic patient information such as age, sex, diagnosis, location, and time into compact visuals. Future development of the proposed approach will allow public health researchers and practitioners to broadly utilize and efficiently compress large volumes of medical records without loss of information.

The risk factors for acquisition of cryptosporidial infection in resource-poor settings are poorly understood. A nested case-control study was conducted to assess factors associated with childhood cryptosporidiosis (detected by stool polymerase chain reaction) in an endemic, Indian slum community using data from two community-based studies with 580 children followed prospectively until their second birthday. Factors were assessed for overall cryptosporidiosis (N = 406), and for multiple (N = 208), asymptomatic (N = 243), and symptomatic (N = 163) infections, respectively. Presence of older siblings (odds ratio [OR] = 1.88, P = 0.002) and stunting at 6 months of age (OR = 1.74, P = 0.019) were important risk factors for childhood cryptosporidiosis. Always boiling drinking water before consumption, the use of a toilet by all members of the family, and maternal age ≥ 23 years were protective. These results provide insights into acquisition of childhood cryptosporidiosis in settings with poor environmental sanitation, contaminated public water supply systems, and close human-animal contact. Disease control strategies will require a multifaceted approach.