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BackgroundThe most common cancer diagnosed in germline TP53 pathogenic variant (PV) carriers is premenopausal breast cancer. An increased rate of breast tumour HER2 positivity has been reported in this group. Screening for breast/other cancers is recommended in PV carriers.Objectives1. To assess the frequency of germline TP53 PVs reported diagnostically in women with breast cancer at 2. To evaluate the impact of personal/family history and HER2 status on the likelihood of germline TP53 pathogenic/likely pathogenic variant (PV/LPV) identification.MethodsGenetic test results from patients undergoing diagnostic germline TP53 tests between 2012 and 2017 in the four London Regional Clinical Genetics Services were reviewed. Clinical/pathology data and family history were extracted from genetics files for women diagnosed with breast cancer at ResultsThe overall germline TP53 PV/LPV variant detection rate was 9/270=3.3% in all women diagnosed with breast cancer at TP53-spectrum cancers. Breast cancers were significantly more likely to be HER2-positive in TP53 PV/LPV carriers than in non-carriers (p=0.00006).ConclusionsGermline TP53 PVs/LPVs are uncommon among women diagnosed with breast cancer aged

Advances in technology have led to a massive expansion in the capacity for genomic analysis, with a commensurate fall in costs. The clinical indications for genomic testing have evolved markedly; the volume of clinical sequencing has increased dramatically; and the range of clinical professionals involved in the process has broadened. There is general acceptance that our early dichotomous paradigms of variants being pathogenic–high risk and benign–no risk are overly simplistic. There is increasing recognition that the clinical interpretation of genomic data requires significant expertise in disease–gene-variant associations specific to each disease area. Inaccurate interpretation can lead to clinical mismanagement, inconsistent information within families and misdirection of resources. It is for this reason that ‘national subspecialist multidisciplinary meetings’ (MDMs) for genomic interpretation have been articulated as key for the new NHS Genomic Medicine Service, of which Cancer Variant Interpretation Group UK (CanVIG-UK) is an early exemplar. CanVIG-UK was established in 2017 and now has >100 UK members, including at least one clinical diagnostic scientist and one clinical cancer geneticist from each of the 25 regional molecular genetics laboratories of the UK and Ireland. Through CanVIG-UK, we have established national consensus around variant interpretation for cancer susceptibility genes via monthly national teleconferenced MDMs and collaborative data sharing using a secure online portal. We describe here the activities of CanVIG-UK, including exemplar outputs and feedback from the membership.

The early diagnosis of active hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection remains a significant barrier to the treatment of the disease and to preventing the associated significant morbidity and mortality seen, worldwide. Current testing is delayed due to the high cost, long turnaround times and high expertise needed in centralised diagnostic laboratories. Here we demonstrate a user-friendly, low-cost pan-genotypic assay, based upon reverse transcriptase loop mediated isothermal amplification (RT-LAMP). We developed a prototype device for point-of-care use, comprising a LAMP amplification chamber and lateral flow nucleic acid detection strips, giving a visually-read, user-friendly result in, Current HCV nucleic acid-based diagnosis is largely performed in centralised laboratories. Here, the authors present a pan-genotypic RNA assay, based on reverse transcriptase loop mediated isothermal amplification and develop a low-cost prototype paper-based lateral flow device for point-of-care use, providing a visually read result within 40 min.

Purpose: Where multiple in silico tools are concordant, the American College of Medical Genetics and Genomics/Association for Molecular Pathology (ACMG/AMP) framework affords supporting evidence toward pathogenicity or benignity, equivalent to a likelihood ratio of ~2. However, limited availability of “clinical truth sets” and prior use in tool training limits their utility for evaluation of tool performance. Methods: We created a truth set of 9,436 missense variants classified as deleterious or tolerated in clinically validated high-throughput functional assays for BRCA1, BRCA2, MSH2, PTEN, and TP53 to evaluate predictive performance for 44 recommended/commonly used in silico tools. Results: Over two-thirds of the tool–threshold combinations examined had specificity of 0.7. For Meta-SNP, the equivalent PLR = 42.9 (14.4–406) and NLR = 19.4 (15.6–24.9). Conclusion: Against these clinically validated “functional truth sets," there was wide variation in the predictive performance of commonly used in silico tools. Overall, REVEL and Meta-SNP had best balanced accuracy and might potentially be used at stronger evidence weighting than current ACMG/AMP prescription, in particular for predictions of benignity.

Background Cancer diagnostics and surgery have been disrupted by the response of healthcare services to the COVID-19 pandemic. Progression of cancers during delay will impact on patient long-term survival. Methods We generated per-day hazard ratios of cancer progression from observational studies and applied these to age-specific, stage-specific cancer survival for England 2013-2017. We modelled per-patient delay of three months and six months and periods of disruption of one year and two years. Using healthcare resource costing, we contextualise attributable lives saved and life-years gained from cancer surgery to equivalent volumes of COVID-19 hospitalisations. Findings Per year, 94,912 resections for major cancers result in 80,406 long-term survivors and 1,717,051 life years gained. Per-patient delay of three/six months would cause attributable death of 4,755/10,760 of these individuals with loss of 92,214/208,275 life-years. For cancer surgery, average life-years gained (LYGs) per patient are 18.1 under standard conditions and 17.1/15.9 with a delay of three/six months (an average loss of 0.97/2.19 LYG per patient). Taking into account units of healthcare resource (HCRU), surgery results on average per patient in 2.25 resource-adjusted life-years gained (RALYGs) under standard conditions and 2.12/1.97 RALYGs following delay of three/six months. For 94,912 hospital COVID-19 admissions, there are 482,022 LYGs requiring of 1,052,949 HCRUs. Hospitalisation of community-acquired COVID-19 patients yields on average per patient 5.08 LYG and 0.46 RALYGs. Interpretation Modest delays in surgery for cancer incur significant impact on survival. Delay of three/six months in surgery for incident cancers would mitigate 19%/43% of life-years gained by hospitalisation of an equivalent volume of admissions for community-acquired COVID-19. This rises to 26%/59% when considering resource-adjusted life-years gained. To avoid a downstream public health crisis of avoidable cancer deaths, cancer diagnostic and surgical pathways must be maintained at normal throughput, with rapid attention to any backlog already accrued., Highlights • Lockdown and re-deployment due to the COVID-19 pandemic is causing significant disruption to cancer diagnosis and management. • 3-month delay to surgery across all Stage 1-3 cancers is estimated to cause >4,700 attributable deaths per year in England. • The impact on life years lost of 3-6 month to surgery for Stage 1-3 disease varies widely between tumour types. • Strategic prioritisation of patients for diagnostics and surgery has potential to mitigate deaths attributable to delays. • The resource-adjusted benefit in avoiding delay in cancer management compares favourably to admission for COVID-19 infection.

ObjectiveTo evaluate the impact of faecal immunochemical testing (FIT) prioritisation to mitigate the impact of delays in the colorectal cancer (CRC) urgent diagnostic (2-week-wait (2WW)) pathway consequent from the COVID-19 pandemic.DesignWe modelled the reduction in CRC survival and life years lost resultant from per-patient delays of 2–6 months in the 2WW pathway. We stratified by age group, individual-level benefit in CRC survival versus age-specific nosocomial COVID-19–related fatality per referred patient undergoing colonoscopy. We modelled mitigation strategies using thresholds of FIT triage of 2, 10 and 150 µg Hb/g to prioritise 2WW referrals for colonoscopy. To construct the underlying models, we employed 10-year net CRC survival for England 2008–2017, 2WW pathway CRC case and referral volumes and per-day-delay HRs generated from observational studies of diagnosis-to-treatment interval.ResultsDelay of 2/4/6 months across all 11 266 patients with CRC diagnosed per typical year via the 2WW pathway were estimated to result in 653/1419/2250 attributable deaths and loss of 9214/20 315/32 799 life years. Risk–benefit from urgent investigatory referral is particularly sensitive to nosocomial COVID-19 rates for patients aged >60. Prioritisation out of delay for the 18% of symptomatic referrals with FIT >10 µg Hb/g would avoid 89% of these deaths attributable to presentational/diagnostic delay while reducing immediate requirement for colonoscopy by >80%.ConclusionsDelays in the pathway to CRC diagnosis and treatment have potential to cause significant mortality and loss of life years. FIT triage of symptomatic patients in primary care could streamline access to colonoscopy, reduce delays for true-positive CRC cases and reduce nosocomial COVID-19 mortality in older true-negative 2WW referrals. However, this strategy offers benefit only in short-term rationalisation of limited endoscopy services: the appreciable false-negative rate of FIT in symptomatic patients means most colonoscopies will still be required.

Summary Background During the COVID-19 lockdown, referrals via the 2-week-wait urgent pathway for suspected cancer in England, UK, are reported to have decreased by up to 84%. We aimed to examine the impact of different scenarios of lockdown-accumulated backlog in cancer referrals on cancer survival, and the impact on survival per referred patient due to delayed referral versus risk of death from nosocomial infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. Methods In this modelling study, we used age-stratified and stage-stratified 10-year cancer survival estimates for patients in England, UK, for 20 common tumour types diagnosed in 2008–17 at age 30 years and older from Public Health England. We also used data for cancer diagnoses made via the 2-week-wait referral pathway in 2013–16 from the Cancer Waiting Times system from NHS Digital. We applied per-day hazard ratios (HRs) for cancer progression that we generated from observational studies of delay to treatment. We quantified the annual numbers of cancers at stage I–III diagnosed via the 2-week-wait pathway using 2-week-wait age-specific and stage-specific breakdowns. From these numbers, we estimated the aggregate number of lives and life-years lost in England for per-patient delays of 1–6 months in presentation, diagnosis, or cancer treatment, or a combination of these. We assessed three scenarios of a 3-month period of lockdown during which 25%, 50%, and 75% of the normal monthly volumes of symptomatic patients delayed their presentation until after lockdown. Using referral-to-diagnosis conversion rates and COVID-19 case-fatality rates, we also estimated the survival increment per patient referred. Findings Across England in 2013–16, an average of 6281 patients with stage I–III cancer were diagnosed via the 2-week-wait pathway per month, of whom 1691 (27%) would be predicted to die within 10 years from their disease. Delays in presentation via the 2-week-wait pathway over a 3-month lockdown period (with an average presentational delay of 2 months per patient) would result in 181 additional lives and 3316 life-years lost as a result of a backlog of referrals of 25%, 361 additional lives and 6632 life-years lost for a 50% backlog of referrals, and 542 additional lives and 9948 life-years lost for a 75% backlog in referrals. Compared with all diagnostics for the backlog being done in month 1 after lockdown, additional capacity across months 1–3 would result in 90 additional lives and 1662 live-years lost due to diagnostic delays for the 25% backlog scenario, 183 additional lives and 3362 life-years lost under the 50% backlog scenario, and 276 additional lives and 5075 life-years lost under the 75% backlog scenario. However, a delay in additional diagnostic capacity with provision spread across months 3–8 after lockdown would result in 401 additional lives and 7332 life-years lost due to diagnostic delays under the 25% backlog scenario, 811 additional lives and 14 873 life-years lost under the 50% backlog scenario, and 1231 additional lives and 22 635 life-years lost under the 75% backlog scenario. A 2-month delay in 2-week-wait investigatory referrals results in an estimated loss of between 0·0 and 0·7 life-years per referred patient, depending on age and tumour type. Interpretation Prompt provision of additional capacity to address the backlog of diagnostics will minimise deaths as a result of diagnostic delays that could add to those predicted due to expected presentational delays. Prioritisation of patient groups for whom delay would result in most life-years lost warrants consideration as an option for mitigating the aggregate burden of mortality in patients with cancer. Funding None.

Accurate classification of variants in cancer susceptibility genes (CSGs) is key for correct estimation of cancer risk and management of patients. Consistency in the weighting assigned to individual elements of evidence has been much improved by the American College of Medical Genetics (ACMG) 2015 framework for variant classification, UK Association for Clinical Genomic Science (UK-ACGS) Best Practice Guidelines and subsequent Cancer Variant Interpretation Group UK (CanVIG-UK) consensus specification for CSGs. However, considerable inconsistency persists regarding practice in the combination of evidence elements. CanVIG-UK is a national subspecialist multidisciplinary network for cancer susceptibility genomic variant interpretation, comprising clinical scientist and clinical geneticist representation from each of the 25 diagnostic laboratories/clinical genetic units across the UK and Republic of Ireland. Here, we summarise the aggregated evidence elements and combinations possible within different variant classification schemata currently employed for CSGs (ACMG, UK-ACGS, CanVIG-UK and ClinGen gene-specific guidance for PTEN, TP53 and CDH1). We present consensus recommendations from CanVIG-UK regarding (1) consistent scoring for combinations of evidence elements using a validated numerical ‘exponent score’ (2) new combinations of evidence elements constituting likely pathogenic’ and ‘pathogenic’ classification categories, (3) which evidence elements can and cannot be used in combination for specific variant types and (4) classification of variants for which there are evidence elements for both pathogenicity and benignity.

Background: Cancer diagnostics and surgery have been disrupted by the response of healthcare services to the COVID-19 pandemic. Progression of cancers during delay will impact on patient long-term survival. Methods: We generated per-day hazard ratios of cancer progression from observational studies and applied these to age-specific, stage-specific cancer survival for England 2013-2017. We modelled per-patient delay of three months and six months and periods of disruption of one year and two years. Using healthcare resource costing, we contextualise attributable lives saved and life years gained from cancer surgery to equivalent volumes of COVID-19 hospitalisations. Findings: Per year, 94,912 resections for major cancers result in 80,406 long-term survivors and 1,717,051 life years gained. Per-patient delay of six months would cause attributable death of 10,555 of these individuals with loss of 205,024 life years. For cancer surgery, average life years gained (LYGs) per patient are 18·1 under standard conditions and 15·9 with a delay of six months (a loss of 2·3 LYG per patient). Taking into account units of healthcare resource (HCRU), surgery results on average per patient in 2·25 resource-adjusted life years gained (RALYGs) under standard conditions and 1·98 RALYGs following delay of six months. For 94,912 hospital COVID-19 admissions, there are 474,505 LYGs requiring of 1,097,937 HCRUs. Hospitalisation of community-acquired COVID-19 patients yields on average per patient 5·0 LYG and 0·43 RALYGs. Interpretation: Delay of six months in surgery for incident cancers would mitigate 43% of life years gained by hospitalisation of an equivalent volume of admissions for community acquired COVID-19. This rises to 62% when considering resource-adjusted life-years gained. To avoid a downstream public health crisis of avoidable cancer deaths, cancer diagnostic and surgical pathways must be maintained at normal throughput, with rapid attention to any backlog already accrued. Funding Statement: MEJ additionally received funding from Breast Cancer Now.GL is supported by a Cancer Research UK Advanced Clinician Scientist Fellowship Award [C18081/A18180] and is Associate Director of the multi-institutional CanTest Collaborative funded by Cancer Research UK [C8640/A23385]. B.T and A.G. are supported by Cancer Research UK award C61296/A27223. R.S.H. is supported by Cancer Research UK (C1298/A8362) and Bobby Moore Fund for Cancer Research UK). A.S. is in receipt of an Academic Clinical Lectureship from National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) and Biomedical Research Centre (BRC) post-doctoral support. This is a summary of independent research supported by the NIHR BRC at the Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust and Institute of Cancer Research. Declaration of Interests: The authors declare no competing interests.

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has caused disruption across cancer pathways for diagnosis and treatment. In England, 32% of colorectal cancer (CRC) is diagnosed via urgent symptomatic referral from primary care, the “2-week-wait” (2WW) pathway. Access to routine endoscopy is likely to be a critical bottleneck causing delays in CRC management due to chronic limitation in capacity, acute competition for physician time, and safety concerns. Methods: We used age-specific, stage-specific 10 year CRC survival for England 2007-2017 and 2WW CRC cases volumes. We used per-day hazard ratios of CRC survival generated from observational studies of CRC diagnosis-to-treatment interval to model the effect of different durations of per-patient delay. We utilised data from a large London observational study of faecal immunochemical testing (FIT) in symptomatic patients to model FIT-triage to mitigate delay to colonoscopy. Findings: Modest delays result in significant reduction in survival from CRC with a 4-month delay resulting across age groups in ≥20% reduction in survival in Stage 3 disease and in total over a year, 1,419 attributable deaths across the 11,266 CRC patients diagnosed via the 2WW pathway. FIT triage of >10 ug Hb/g would salvage 1,292/1,419 of the attributable deaths and reduce colonoscopy requirements by >80%. Diagnostic colonoscopy offers net survival in all age groups, providing nosocomial COVID-19 infection rates are kept low (

Preterm birth (PTB) is the leading cause of infant death and disability worldwide. The onset of preterm uterine contractions is preceded by asymptomatic cervical remodelling and ripening, which can be seen on trans-vaginal ultrasound as cervical shortening. This study aimed to identify plasma miRNA biomarkers that predict preterm birth and/or cervical shortening. We collected serial plasma samples from pregnant women prospectively from 12 to 22 weeks gestation. The nCounter miRNA assay was used to identify differentially expressed miRNAs associated with spontaneous PTB and/or cervical shortening (n = 16 term no short, n = 13 preterm, n = 24 short). Predictive values of the miRNA biomarkers were confirmed in an independent validation cohort consisting of 96 women who delivered at term, 14 preterm and 21 early cervical shortening at P

Background: Homeless people are known to suffer disproportionately with health problems that reduce physical functioning and quality of life, and shorten life expectancy. They suffer from a wide range of diseases that are known to be painful, but little information is available about the nature and prevalence of chronic pain in this vulnerable group. This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of chronic pain among homeless people, and to examine its location, effect on activities of daily living, and relationship with alcohol and drugs.Methods: We conducted face-to-face interviews with users of homeless shelters in four major cities in the United Kingdom, in the winters of 2009-11. Participants completed the Brief Pain Inventory, Short Form McGill Pain questionnaire, Leeds Assessment of Neuropathic Symptoms and Signs, and detailed their intake of prescribed and unprescribed medications and alcohol. We also recorded each participant’s reasons for homelessness, and whether they slept rough or in shelters.Findings: Of 168 shelter users approached, 150 (89.3%) participated: 93 participants (63%) reported experiencing pain lasting longer than three months; the mean duration of pain experienced was 82.2 months. The lower limbs were most frequently affected. Opioids appeared to afford a degree of analgesia for some, but whilst many reported symptoms suggestive of neuropathic pain, very few were taking anti-neuropathic drugs.Interpretation: The prevalence of chronic pain in the homeless appears to be substantially higher than the general population, is poorly controlled, and adversely affects general activity, walking and sleeping. It is hard to discern whether chronic pain is a cause or effect of homelessness, or both. Pain is a symptom, but in this challenging group it might not always be possible to treat the underlying cause. Exploring the diagnosis and treatment of neuropathic pain may offer a means of improving the quality of these vulnerable people’s lives.